Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.8

This week I went a bit reliever crazy. It’s better to spend a small amount on a middle reliever who could take over as the closer than spend a huge amount on the guy a week or two later when he is officially named the closer. Therefore, I added an AL East closer in pretty much every league this week, trying to get a bit ahead of the curve. We’ll see if it plays out as I think it might, or if I will have to go middle reliever trolling in the coming weeks all over again.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Raul Ibanez ($1) was added at the cost of Maicer Izturis. Not a big loss there. I will speak more about Ibanez a little lower in this piece. I need offense, wherever I can get it, and I can move the suddenly warming Emilio Bonifacio over the the MI spot that Izturis was occupying (.286 with a couple of steals and five runs scored over his last nine games).
Notable bids: Joel Peralta ($5, I bid $4), Jerome Williams ($3), Pete Kozma ($2), Rick Porcello ($2), Jake Odorizzi ($1), DannY Valencia ($1), Kurt Suzuki ($1)

LABR (12 team, AL-only): For the third time this season through eight FA periods, I didn’t make a move in this league. I was able to activate Chris Young off the DL though, so that’s a potentially big move in an AL-only league.
Notable bids: Josh Lindblom ($4), Vidal Nuno ($4), Eric Sogard ($3), Kevin Correia ($3), Pedro Florimon ($3), Matt Tuiasosopo ($2).

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

FSTA (13 team mixed): Joel Peralta, a name you will continue to see in this piece, was added for $29. I also added Ryan Roberts to play third base over the continually pathetic Placido Polanco (Hanley Ramirez being down and out is just killing me). Roberts qualifies at second and third, and he’s hitting .316 with a homer, four RBIs and four runs over his last seven games… even if it’s been over a two week time period. I’m desperate.
Notable bids: Eric Chavez ($56), Andy Dirks ($27), David DeJesus ($24), Jerome Williams ($11), Raul Ibanez ($11). In a very interesting side note, I placed bid on Williams and Ibanez for $11… the same price as the two winnings bids (Peralta and Roberts were higher in my rankings so they were the players I was awarded).

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Now it’s Austin Jackson who has hit the DL. I just cannot win in this league no matter what move I make. I added Joel Peralta ($4) at the cost of J.J. Putz. Without an ample series of DL spots to turn to, I just couldn’t afford to continually carry a reliever who is on the DL with no clear cut time for a return this season. Rajai Davis, another DL’d player, was let go so that Will Venable ($4) could be added to my squad. Venable has been really good in May hitting .280 with four homers, eight RBIs, eight runs and five steals in just 17 games.
Notable bids: Hector Santiago ($3), Jorge De La Rosa ($3), Derek Dietrich ($2), Oswaldo Arcia ($2), Zach McAllister ($2).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire. Of course, Joel Peralta was added (Andre Ethier was let go). I also made a minor swap of underperforming veterans. Tim Hudson was sent out and Paul Konerko was brought back. Corey Hart continues to be hurt, so I needed a boost at the CI spot. On the hill, after a couple of deals, my staff is nails: Latos, Sale, Lee, Cain, Gallardo, Wilson and Morrow, so I could afford to move Hudson.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Joel Peralta come on down. Ricky Nolasco, who has pitched pretty damn well this season if you must know, was let go (for some reason in this league, and I’ve been in it for years, there always seems to be available SP talent on the waiver-wire, so I’m not too worried about letting Nolasco go – we all know what he is at this point). I also added Yunel Escobar to help me up the middle at the costs of Ryan Raburn (Hanley Ramirez being on the DL has set me back a piece). Escobar is warming, quickly, and he’s hit .301 the past 30 days, .318 the past 14 days and .381 the past week.
Notable bids: David Phelps ($38), Brandon McCarthy ($36), Emilio Bonifacio ($35), Matt Joyce ($35), Bronson Arroyo ($35), Chris Carter ($31), David Lough ($24), Jake Odorizzi ($21), Alex Rodriguez ($14), Mark Ellis ($12), Colby Lewis ($12).

FANBALL (13 team mixed): I took a shot on Joel Peralta ($3) taking over the the pathetic Fernando Rodney (he has 15 walks in 16.1 innings meaning his WHIP, on just walks, is higher than it was last year, 0.92 compared to 0.78). I dropped another middle reliever in David Robertson. Ryan Raburn, hey it’s time to admit that his run of excellence is over and not going to be repeated, was cast adrift in favor of the flavor of the week Raul Ibanez. Over his last eight games he has six homers and 14 RBIs. Wow is right.
Notable bids: Scott Feldman ($7), Didi Gregorius ($3), David Dejesus ($1), Adam Lind ($1), A.J. Ellis ($1), Alberto Callaspo ($1), Nick Franklin ($1).

Finally, my thoughts on the Jurickson Profar callup. Hint, you shouldn’t be overly excited?

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Elvis Andrus

Elvis Andrus is a somewhat polarizing player in fantasy baseball. Some people love his speed. Others think there isn’t much to separate him from Alcides Escobar. Others think the Rangers might be better off trading him and letting Jurickson Profar have at it (as of now it appears that Profar will begin the year in the minors with Andrus playing shortstop and Ian Kinsler holding down the fort at second base). In what follows I’ll given the pro’s and con’s with Andrus as we try to ferret out what his true value should be heading into 2013.

PRO

Andrus has been a very durable player. During his four year big league career he’s played at least 145 games every season and has hit 150 games played the last two years.

Andrus has hit .275 for his career. That’s not a huge number by any means, but it’s about .020 points better than the league average so there needn’t be any worry about him in this measure. It should also be pointed out that he’s seen his average climb from .265 to .279 to .286 the past three years. Also, he’s been extremely consistent in the BABIP category. For his career his BABIP is .317. The last three seasons that mark has been .317, .312 and .332. Again, consistency which I really like to see. For his young career his line drive rate is 21.6 percent. In three of his four years the mark has been at least 21.9 percent (the only year it was below that was 2010 when it was still at the big league average at 19.3 percent). Andrus is also a rock star at knowing what he is good at and sticking with it. What he does well is keep the ball out of the air. For his career his ground ball rate is 57.4 percent. In his four seasons that mark has been between 55.8 and 61.1 percent. Again, consistency. As a result his 2.72 career GB-rate, a total he exactly matched last season by the way.

Andrus has speed. Some will points out that he stole “only” 21 bases last year, and for a guy who swiped 33, 32 and 37 his first three years that is disappointing. But is there anyone out there who legitimately thinks he couldn’t steal 30 bases again this season? Come on now. How about these facts? His total of 123 steals the past four years is the most in baseball for a shortstop (three more than the oft injured Jose Reyes). Andrus is one of 17 men in baseball who has stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past four years. He’s also the only shortstop in baseball who belongs in that club.

Andrus scored 72 runs his first season, but over the past three seasons he has scored 88, 96 and 85 runs. The last three seasons he is one of 10 men who have scored at least 85 runs in each season. He is the only shortstop that can make that claim. Over the last four years only one shortstop has scored more runs – Derek Jeter (401 to 341). Andrus is third in runs scored the past three seasons at the position – Jeter (294), Reyes (270) and Andrus (269).

CON

He’s yet to hit .290 in a season.

He’s never hit seven homers in a season. In fact, he’s gone deep just 14 times in four seasons. He’s completely deficient in the homer category and that isn’t going to change.

He’s never been an RBI machine. In his first two seasons he knocked in a total of 75 runners. The last two seasons he’s at least improved a little bit up to 60 and 62 RBIs. Still, that’s just not a number anyone wants to see from their starting fantasy shortstop.

He only stole 21 bases last year after 3-straight years of 30 steals.

CONCLUSION

Don’t know about you, but doesn’t the “pro” section look to be a lot more substantial than the “con” section with Andrus? There are some players, think Juan Pierre/Ben Revere/ Brett Gardner etc., that are extremely talented in one respect or another, but totally disappointing in another faze of the game. It’s just how it works folks. Instead of bashing Andrus for his lack of power, a completely fair point to bring up by the way, why don’t we celebrate what he is – a durable, young player who steals bases and scores runs with the best at his position. Andrus has also been an extremely reliable/steady player from year to year without the wild swings that some players throw out there. Andrus also owns a skill set that says his career .275 batting average is totally legit while there might still be a .300 season in his bat and legs. Is he an extremely different player than Alcides Escobar who I referenced at the top of this piece? No he isn’t. Can you get Escobar at a cheaper cost on draft day? You certainly can if you judge the answer by the NFBC ADP information. However, remember this. Personally, I don’t mind paying a little bit extra for stability/predictability. It’s possible that the better play in ’13 will end up being Escobar, but as I noted in his Player Profile there are more questions with Escobar than Andrus. For me, I’ll take a shot on Andrus, especially if he falls a bit on draft day, because I get the felling that there just might be a pretty impressive season in the cards for the Rangers’ starter at shortstop.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Rookies & Prospects – Are They Worth It?

So you want to be one of those “smart” people in fantasy baseball that takes the hot shot rookie for the “upside” play early in the draft OK, maybe you aren’t that person, but let’s say you are more than willing to scoop up that prospect in the 15th round because of the “boring” options that are available. As I point out all the time, give me a team of Nick Swisher, Torii Hunter, Adam LaRoche and Michael Cuddyer and nine times out of 10 I will crush your team of Jurickson Profar, Domonic Brown, Dylan Bundy and Mike Olt. It’s just the way it is. Well, it’s the way I tell you it is without actually attempting to quantify that position with facts. Now we have them.

The following discussion comes from the mind of Kyle Elfrink. It’s not just his brainchild, in terms of him coming up with the idea, but it’s also penned by him. So special thanks to Kyle for the research he did to dig up the facts, and for allowing me to post his words here on the site.

I searched Baseball America’s Top 10 prospects (perhaps the most trusted source on minor leaguers) every year, going back to the turn of the century in 2000. (note: I did not include either 2011 or 2012 because it’s too early to give close-to-definitive answers on players). Here’s what I found.

- 89 different prospects were listed as ‘Top 10′ over the course of 11 years (many players were repeats from one year to the next).

- 29 of those 89 were ‘hits/fantasy assets’ (32.5%)

- 22 of those 89 were ‘OK fantasy players’ (24.7%)

- 38 of those 89 were ‘misses/busts’ (42.8%)

- If you repeat from one year to the next, your chances are quite good of becoming a serviceable MLB player (Joe Mauer was a ‘top 10′ prospect for four years!).

- Hitters have a far better success rate than pitchers … 31 of the 52 ‘hits’ and ‘ok’s’ have been hitters.

- Projections have become much better in the past few seasons.

- ’04 and ’05 are the only years since 2000 with more than three hits.

- What has the ‘Top-3′ done over the years?  Well, not including ‘repeats’, there are 10 hits, eight misses, and 3 OKs … less than 50% of the top-3 (i.e., guys that most everyone thought would become All-Stars) since 2000 has been a ‘hit’ … i.e. a good fantasy player.

- 2013 list - 1. Jurickson Profar 2. Dylan Bundy 3. Oscar Taveras 4. Wil Myers 5. Jose Fernandez 6. Shelby Miller 7. Gerrit Cole 8. Xander Bogaerts 9. Miguel Sano 10. Byron Buxton

- History says that three of these will be hits … two will be hitters … Profar, Bundy, Myers, and Miller are repeats from previous years, thus helping their odds

2000 – 0 hits, 3 OK, 6 miss, 1 repeat
1. Ankiel (MISS)
2. Burrell (OK)
3. C. Patterson (MISS)
4. V. Wells (OK)
5. N. Johnson (MISS)
6. R. Mateo (MISS)
7. Burroughs
8. Furcal (OK)
9. R. Anderson (MISS)
10. Patterson (MISS)

2001 – 3 hits, 2 OK, 1 miss, 4 repeats
1. Hamilton (HIT)
2. C. Patterson
3. Beckett
4. Rauch (MISS)
5. Sheets (OK)
6. Burroughs
7. Sabathia (HIT)
8. R. Anderson
9. Ichiro (HIT)
10. N. Johnson

2002 – 3 hits, 1 OK, 6 miss
1.Beckett (HIT)
2.Prior (MISS)
3.Blalock (MISS)
4.Burroughs (MISS)
5.Pena (OK)
6.Cruz (MISS)
7.Mauer (HIT)
8.Betemit (MISS)
9.Henson (MISS)
10.Tex (HIT)

2003 – 4 hits, 2 repeat, 4 miss
1.Tex
2.Baldelli (MISS)
3.Reyes (HIT)
4.Mauer
5.Foppert (MISS)
6.Contreras (MISS)
7.Phillips (HIT)
8.Matsui (HIT)
9.Floyd (MISS)
10.K-Rod (HIT)

2004 – 4 hits, 1 repeat, 3 OKs, 2 miss
1.Mauer
2.Upton (HIT)
3.Del. Young (OK)
4.Ed. Jackson (OK)
5.R. Weeks (HIT)
6.Rios (HIT)
7.K. Matsui (MISS)
8.Miller (MISS)
9.Sizemore (OK)
10.P. Fielder (HIT)

2005 – 2 hits, 3 repeats, 5 miss
1.Mauer
2.F. Hernandez (HIT)
3.Del. Young
4.Stewart (MISS)
5.Guzman (MISS)
6.Kotchman (MISS)
7.Kazmir (MISS)
8.R. Weeks
9.Marte (MISS)
10.H. Ramirez (HIT)

2006 – 3 hits, 1 repeat, 2 OK, 4 miss
1.Del. Young
2.J. Upton (HIT)
3.Wood (MISS)
4.Hermida (MISS)
5.S. Drew (MISS)
6.Liriano (OK)
7.Billingsley (OK)
8.Verlander (HIT)
9.Miledge (MISS)
10.Cain (HIT)

2007 – 2 hits, 3 OK, 2 repeat, 3 miss
1.Dice-K (MISS)
2.Al. Gordon (HIT)
3.Del. Young
4.Hughes (OK)
5.Bailey (OK)
6.Maybin (OK)
7.Longoria (HIT)
8.B. Wood (MISS)
9.J. Upton
10.Miller (MISS)

2008 – 3 hits, 4 miss, 3 repeat
1.Bruce (HIT)
2.Longoria
3.Chamberlain (MISS)
4.Buchholz (MISS)
5.Rasmus (MISS)
6.Maybin
7.Kershaw (HIT)
8.F. Morales (MISS)
9.Bailey
10.Price (HIT)

2009 – 2 hit, 3 OK, 3 repeat, 2 miss
1.Wieters (OK)
2.Price
3.Rasmus
4. T. Hanson (OK)
5.Heyward (HIT)
6.Snider (MISS)
7.B. Anderson (MISS)
8. Maybin
9.Bumgarner (HIT)
10.N. Feliz (OK)

2010 – 3 hits, 4 OK, 1 miss, 2 repeat
1.Heyward
2.Strasburg (HIT)
3.Stanton (HIT)
4.J. Montero (OK)
5.Matsuz (MISS)
6.D. Jennings (OK)
7.Posey (HIT)
8.Alvarez (OK)
9.N. Feliz
10.C. Santana (OK)