Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss some key players that have started off the season really hot, but tell you what you can really expect from them the rest of the season.
NBA: Streaming players for the fantasy playoffs?
MLB: Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, Coco Crisp, Wilin Rosario, Chris Heisey, Matt Harvey, Dan Straily, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson
I’ve outdone myself this time. Luis Mendoza, he pitches for the Royals if you were unaware, went 8-10 with a 1.42 WHIP last season. That type of pitching line points to a hurler being barely usable in a league specific setup. So have I run out of things to write about at BaseballGuys? Am I part owner of the Royals? Is Mendoza married to my second cousin? The answer to all of those three question is no, so why write about Mendoza? There must be some reason…
For the totality of the 2012 season, here are some Mendoza numbers:
5.64 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 1.76 K/BB
As you know, none of those three numbers is even league average. In most cases that would portend doom in my eyes. Does it in the case of this Veracruz, Mexico righty? Don’t give up the faith just yet.
If a guy has a set of numbers like that, in most cases one of two things occur. (A) He’s likely to end up riding buses in the minor leagues very soon or (B) he’s got to have another skill that has led a major league team to use him in a significant role. In the case of Mendoza, it just might be the second situation.
As is often the case with a hurler who doesn’t strike anyone out and walks batters at the league average rate, Mendoza has a pretty impressive sinker at his disposal. After throwing his sinking fastball 80+ percent of the time from 2009-11, Mendoza actually cut back a bit in 2012 throwing the pitch 68 percent of the time as he leaned more heavily on his curve ball throwing it 23 percent of the time (that mark had never been above 11.4 percent during his big league career). By the way he’s really only a two pitch hurler as he threw a change up less than 10 percent of the time in 2012. As for the sinking action on his pitches, they worked to great effect in 2012. Mendoza’s ground ball rate last season was 52 percent, just slightly above his 51 percent career mark. Looks like the switch in the deployment of his pitches didn’t hinder him in the least. Given his only slightly elevated 21 percent line drive rate he was able to produce a 1.92 GB/FB ratio, the 7th best mark in the AL.
As we’ve seen forever, think Derek Lowe, Bronson Arroyo, Justin Masterson etc., pitcher’s can have a ton of success in the real world with a less than ideal skill set in the fantasy game. Taking a look at those three names that I listed, you will probably remember seasons where those guys led you to fantasy championships while in other seasons they doomed you to searching the waiver-wire to try and make up for what was a horrible fantasy effort. That’s often the case with guys that can’t get free outs (strikeouts) and that struggle with their control at times. When that sinker isn’t sinking/diving/darting they just don’t have the stuff or location to consistently get batters out. That up/down nature of sinker ballers is why I rarely get behind guys whose main asset is the ability to induce ground balls unless they can compliment that skill with the ability to miss bats (a ground ball arm who can strike batters out is the panacea of pitching – think Felix Hernandez, David Price and James Shields). Mendoza doesn’t have the ability to miss bats but he was decent during the second half of the season posting a 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in the second half of 2012 (remember when when I wrote about Phil Hughes in his Player Profile? In that article I noted that Hughes’ 2012 numbers included a 4.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP). If Mendoza can cut the walks just a bit, and keep the ball down in the strike zone consistently as he has in the past…
Mendoza is a reserve round speculative pick in mixed leagues at best. The fact is that in most leagues with 12 teams I doubt he will be drafted. I’m not saying you should buck that trend and do so, but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that Mendoza could run off a series of effective seasons on the bump. He’s never going to produce strikeouts, and his ratios may never be anything better than league, but given that you will be able to add him for nothing in 2013 it might be worth remembering his name early in the season if an injury strikes your club or if you play in a league that uses a head-to-head setup where a 2-start Mendoza might be worth considering rolling out there.
By Ray Flowers
Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.
GAINERS OF THE WEEK
Danny Espinosa (+13, $81K in DailyJoust Salary)
With Ian Desmond looking like he could miss a month or more of playing time with his oblique issue, Steve Lombardozzi will handle second base duties full time with Espinosa moving over to shortstop for the Nats. Espy already has six starts at shortstop, and given that most leagues have no more than a 10 game limit for in-season positional qualification, he’s about ready to become one interesting option up the middle. In addition, have you noticed that he’s actually started to hit as well? The past three weeks the only two second sackers who have been more valuable than Espy are Neil Walker and Brandon Phillips. Espinosa is hitting .359 with two homers, eight RBIs, 11 runs scored and four thefts in that time frame. Get on the Espy train as it’s about to fill up quickly.
Adrian Gonzalez (+12, $126K)
I keep getting questions about this guy as it seems that people haven’t noticed that all of a sudden AGone is just killing it. Hitting .406 in July with 15 RBIs in 16 games, Gonzalez is batting an even .400 over his last 90 at-bats to push his season long mark up to .297. ‘What about the nine homers in 94 games Ray?’ What were you expecting? Fenway Park isn’t a great place for home run hitters if you’re a lefty. I tried to explain just that on January 6th, 2011 in ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez. That’s right, over a year an a half ago. No one listened. He went out and hit 27 homers last year. People still didn’t listen and thought a return to 35+ homers was happening this year. It hasn’t as he has nine. That’s 36 homers in 253 games with the Sox. He averaged 36 homers a season his last two years at Petco. One final note. In 133 career games at Fenway AGone is hitting .333 with 17 homers.
Joe Kelly (+72, $267K)
He’s taken the hill seven times for the Cards and he’s allowed more than two earned runs only one time (the Royals produced three). Kelly has also gone exactly six innings in each of his last five starts, all of them “quality.” Still not remotely sold on him. His 5.72 K/9 mark is poor. His 1.79 K/BB ratio is really bad. His ERA of 2.75 should be a run and a half higher given his skill set (no way he holds on to that 80 percent left on base mark, and that 23 percent line drive rate is pretty high as well). He’s a solid arm who generates a lot of grounders, but it’s not likely that he keeps that ERA under three (it’s 2.75) and that 1.40 WHIP is already worse than the league average.
Jason Kubel (+21, $121K)
Someone ate their Wheaties. Four homers, seven RBIs and five runs scored in two games, and six homers, 11 RBIs, eight runs in his last seven contests. Out of control anyone? Going back a bit further Kubel has been doing his best Josh Hamilton impersonation for a long while as he’s hit .304 with 17 homers and 48 RBIs over his last 39 games. Hell, the guy is even hitting .296 against left handed pitching this year (career .247). Ride the gravy train until it runs out, but some perspective. There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent but has been under 20 percent three of four years). There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent after being 11 percent the past two years). He’s striking out more than ever before (25.4 percent K-rate versus 19.4 for his career). It’s all going right for Kubel, and the ballpark in Arizona is certainly helping, but we know all good things must come to an end, right?
LOSERS OF THE WEEK
Justin Masterson (-102, $276K)
Even though he tossed seven shutout innings against the Blue Jays on July 13th Masterson has still allowed 12 earned runs over his last 15.1 innings. Yeah, not good. Not just that, he has also walked 12 batters in those three starts including seven the last time he took the hill. That doesn’t sound like someone who has any idea what’s going on right now (Justin walked nine batters in his previous seven starts). On the year a lot is going as expected with Masterson, but he simply has to cut down on the free passes (his 3.93 per nine mark is more than a batter above the level he flashed last season in his breakout effort).
Angel Pagan (-32, $57K)
Pagan killed it in May hitting .375 with eight steals. Not so much since then though. Over his last 41 games he’s gone deep once, stolen just seven bases and hit a mere .235. The result is a slash line of .281/.326/.398, not exactly impressive for a guy who is on pace to fall well short of 10 homers and 65 RBIs. The 17 thefts are nice, but Pagan’s just not a very dynamic option. In search of offense, it’s possible the Giants might even make a trade to bring in another outfield bat in which case Pagan may not be looked at as an every day starter.
Wandy Rodriguez (-59, $234K)
A two-time starter this week, Wandy really needs to show something so that the Astros can move him for peak value before the trade deadline. After allowing nine runs in his last two starts, two loses, his ERA sits at 3.75 for the season. It was 2.49 on June 1st. Wandy has also seen his K-rate plummet this year to 5.99, a horrible mark for a guy who has posted a mark of at least 7.78 each of the past five years. He’s offset the loss of punchouts with a career best walk rate that has led to a 2.86 K/BB ratio which would be a three year high, but that doesn’t help out his fantasy value where we need punchouts (he’s also generating more grounders than ever before at 52 percent of batted balls).
Drew Stubbs (-29, $57K)
Terribly disappointing. That could be the name on the back of Stubbs jersey. At the same time, could it be expectations were too high? The last two years Stubbs averaged 154 games played. Right now he has 77 games played. Multiply 77 by two and you get – 154 games. Therefore, let’s simply double Stubb’s numbers this season and compare them to his 2011 effort.
2011: .243-15-44-92-40 with a .686 OPS
2012: .217-18-48-88-36 with a .644 OPS
Certainly he’s off the pace from last season a wee bit, but honestly, nothing in that 2012 pace would have been thought of as an unreasonable outlook for Stubbs in 2012 given his efforts last season. Maybe the batting average is a bit low, but a hot three weeks could get him back up to .240 and then he’d be right on the same pace as he almost always is (people over at Fleaflicker seem to have mixed feelings about the outfielder). Just some food for thought.
DAILY CONTESTS
Sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.
By Ray Flowers
Today I’ll not only do my normal Friday thing, giving you some advice on guys I’d be starting Friday and Saturday, but I’m also going to point you to a game in which you can turn $10 into $5000. How does that sound?
CONTEST – KING FOR A DAY; Win $12,000
Here’s the deal. Every Friday starting today, through September 7th, 12 qualifiers will be given a shot to win $12,000 in the final contest on September 14th. Here’s how it works from the official webpage of the tournament.
Each weekly qualifier is a $10 entry multiple-entry tournament with the winner earning a seat in the Sept 14th $12,000 King’s Crown tournament. In the event of a tie for first place, normal Daily Joust tie-breaker rules apply. If a tie still persists, a playoff will occur to determine the winner.
That’s right. Be a weekly winner and you’ll get your shot to view for the $12,000 in prizes ($5,000 to the winner)… for the cost of $10.
Sound like a game you’d like to try your hand at? Wish I could qualify…
HITTERS – FRIDAY
Robinson Cano vs. Josh Beckett: Cano hits everyone, and Beckett is no different as Cano has hit .324 with three homers and 13 RBI over 71 at-bats.
Matt Holliday vs. Ricky Nolasco: This matchup is golden for Holliday who is hitting .476 with two homers and six RBIs in 21 at-bats. Carlos Beltran also kills it with 13 hits in 38 at-bats (.342 average) against Nolasco.
Carlos Lee vs. Jake Westbrook: A new team for energy, and a great matchup for production. Lee is hitting .450 in 40 at-bats against the righty from STL.
Luke Scott vs. Justin Masterson: In a horrific slump that has him hitting .194 on the year, Scott is 7-for-16 (.438) with five RBIs off Masterson. Will this be the tonic he needs to turn things around?
PITCHERS – FRIDAY
Hiroki Kuroda vs. Red Sox: In his lone outing against the Sox he allowed two runs in seven innings while racking up nine Ks. Over his last eight starts this season he’s dropped his ERA from 4.50 to 3.17, and over his last 34 innings he has an impressive 39 Ks. He’s rolling.
Justin Masterson vs. Rays: So Scott hits him, but no one has really hit Masterson of late. Over his last six starts he’s struck out 36 while walking nine leading to a 1.93 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Maybe he turns around those awful career numbers vs. the Rays (6.80 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 43.2 IP).
Travis Wood vs. Mets: In his lone start against the Mets back on June 25th Wood hurled seven shutout innings. Moreover, he’s won his last three starts while allowing a total of one earned run. Put that together and you have a nice streaming option.
HITTERS – SATURDAY
Ryan Braun vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Maybe Wandy hopes he will get dealt to the Brew Crew so he won’t have to keep facing Braun. In 34 career at-bats Braun has hit .412 with four homers and seven RBIs. Rickie Weeks (.353), Aramis Ramirez (.349) and Corey Hart (.386) also kill Wandy.
Miguel Cabrera vs. Bruce Chen: Ten hits in 21 at-bats (.476) and three homers and seven RBIs say to start Cabrera in all leagues. Not like you wouldn’t anyway.
Kevin Youkilis vs. Ricky Romero: The Blue Jays’ lefty has been awful of late whereas Youkilis is finally starting to hit. In 23 career matchups Youkilis is hitting .348 with three bombs leading to a 1.336 OPS.
PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Rays: In one game against Tampa he tossed 6.2 innings of one run ball. However, it’s his work of late that is so exciting. In his last six starts he has 36 Ks in 40 innings leading to a 2.93 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. It’s pretty much been vintage Ubaldo.
Kyle Lohse vs. Marlins: The last time he took on the Marlins it was 7.1 innings of two run ball. The last three times he has taken the hill against anyone, including that game against the Marlins, it’s been at least seven innings with two or fewer earned runs allowed. Since the start of June, Lohse is 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (over at Fleaflicker people have started to notice his rise).
Jarrod Parker vs. Mariners: In his last start against the club from Seattle it was seven innings of one run ball. In his last four starts overall he has allowed three earned runs. Face it, it may not always be pretty, but the rookie is flat out getting it done every time he takes the hill.
By Ray Flowers
Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I receive questions on a 24 hour basis. Here are some of those questions and my thoughts.
I have to keep two: Jeremy Hellickson, C.J. Wilson and Justin Masterson. Which two stay?
– @BradfordEra
Ah, gotta love those shallow leagues.
Hellickson has a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his rookie season as he has been as good as advertised. Unlike other rookies, he is showing no signs of fading either as he has allowed two runs in his last two starts and three of fewer in each of his last eight outings. In fact, seven of those eight times on the hill have produced a “quality start.” There is no reason to turn away from him at this point.
Wilson bounced back in his last outing with nine Ks and two earned runs allowed after getting lit up for 10 earned runs (13 total) in his previous two outings. He’s been pretty uneven of late permitting four or more earned runs four times in his last nine starts while in the other five he’s allowed two or fewer. Still, he has 29 Ks in 29.1 innings over his last five starts, and despite the two shelling his ERA is a palatable 3.99 in that time.
Masterson has been on quite a role as well. Over his last 10 starts he has lowered his ERA from 3.18 down to 2.63 as only once has he allowed more than four runs. Moreover, he’s actually allowed as many as four earned runs only twice in those 10 starts. He’s also been locked in when it comes to throwing strikes as he has walked a total of 11 batters in those 10 outings.
So who do you drop? None really. All are pitching well and all sport solid skills that speak to the ability of each to carry on the solid work they have offered to this point. If pressed to drop one I’d move on from Masterson, but as you can tell, I’m really not a fan of doing that.
I Lost Chase Headley/Daniel Murphy/Adrian Beltre to injuries …need a 3B…Casey McGehee, Danny Valencia or David Freese?
– @IsabelTrent
That’s about as bad a run of luck as anyone could possible fall in. Brutal.
Do you want to add Freese given your lack of luck? Freese is expected to return to the Cards lineup on Tuesday from a concussion that he suffered Thursday last week. He should be fine, but given your run of injury, do you have the stomach to add Freese? If you do you would be adding a guy who is batting .320 this year and one who owns a .308 career mark in 465 at-bats. The guy can hit no doubt, even if his power reminds you more of Wade Boggs than Mike Schmidt.
Valencia has quietly been a solid run producer this season. Danny has 12 homers on the year, just one less than Alex Rodriguez. He has 58 RBI, the same total as Evan Longoria. He has 42 runs scored, the same total as Chase Headley. There are negatives with Valencia, chiefly his .242 average and .287 OBP, but he has been moving the arrow there as well of late. Since the start of July Valencia has hit .291 with a .319 OBP. OK, the OBP is awful, but the .291 average is much more like the rookie who hit .311 last year in Minnesota.
McGehee was great in two thirds of a season in 2009, and last year he posted 23 homers and 104 RBI. He was going in the top-10 at third base in almost all drafts this season. McG then proceeded to hit .218 in May and .177 in June as he hit one long ball in 51 games. Unbelievable. However, he’s awoken of late with 12 RBI in his last 10 games, and with that big three homer game on August 3rd he caught everyone’s attention. I would add Valencia here. However, if you don’t mind rolling the dice when you could end up crapping out, Freese would be an intriguing add batting behind Berkman, Holliday and Pujols in St. Louis.
Is Jesus Montero worth grabbing for cheap in a league that keeps 10 players now?
– @Trevorpace24
The short answer is yes, add Montero. As for the reasons, there are a couple that really stand out..
First, Montero will one day be a middle of the order bat on a championship level team. He’s always flashed an elite level stick, and scouts will tell you that the ball just jumps off his bat. Now he’s had some issues with concentration and focus this season, and it’s not like his numbers at Triple-A jump off the page (.289-11-51 in 90 games), but you can just see the potential oozing out of his pours.
Second, the Yankees offense has a black hole right now at designated hitter. Jorge Posada has been filling the role for much of the season, but it’s time to face facts – he just hasn’t gotten it done this year with a .231 average, a .309 OBP and a sickly .372 SLG How does that line compare to his career levels? Atrociously – .273/.374/.474. Posada has also gone 27 games without going deep, and during that time he has all of four RBI. He’s also hitting a mere .103 against lefties on the year (58 at-bats), and he has looked totally lost on the road (.173/.254/.276 with two homers). If not for all the offensive fireworks going on around him this year in New York his failings would be more front and center. Moreover, a report Monday in The Journal News says Posada’s rope may have finally run out. “[Manager Joe Girardi] said he was going to put the best lineup on the field, and he doesn’t know when I’m going to DH again,” Posada said. “So right now I’m sitting on the bench.”
The supposition is that Montero could be called up from the minors to take over the bulk of the designated hitter duties. Even if Montero doesn’t play a major role this season, adding him in a league that protects 10 players is a good idea. Catcher eligible players who can blast 25 homers are rare, and in a worst case scenario Jesus would have a whole lot of value if you wanted to trade him. After all, everyone loves rookies almost as much as they love those Yankees.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
(1) Jake Peavy to DL with groin issue.
(2) Adam Dunn to get a few days off as did Alex Rios in an attempt to wake both up.
(3) Knees bothering Jimmy Rollins and Mark Teixeira.
(4) Carl Pavano pitching well of late, really.
(5) Justin Masterson has no wins in eight starts despite pitching well.
(5) Jason Heyward called out by Chipper Jones.
By Ray Flowers
Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Should I give up on Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Morneau and trade them for Kyle Lohse and Justin Masterson?
– @westcoastredsox
We keep waiting for Ubaldo to turn things around, but the wait continues to be an excruciating process. Jimenez is 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA this season, and he’s currently walking 5.33 batters per nine innings, more than a batter worse than his already poor career mark. You simply cannot have success walking that many guys. We keep hearing that his body is healthy, that his issues stem from a mechanical issue, but a look at the radar gun doesn’t lie – his average fastball velocity is down more than three mph this season from where it was the last two years (96 down to 93 mph). Jimenez is still getting his strikeouts, his 7.99 mark per nine is a mere tenth below his career rate, but clearly something just isn’t right. The most distressing news though might be that this isn’t a recent issue, it goes back a long while. Over his last 24 starts Ubaldo has a 4.52 ERA, a 1.38 ERA, a ghastly 4-12 record, and a terrible 1.92 K/BB ratio. Those aren’t the numbers of an ace they are numbers that would normally find you residing on the waiver-wire.
The optimist will say that since May 9th Morneau has hit .289 and he’s finally ready to emerge from his concussion induced slumber. However, the realist in me just can’t accept that. Even though he’s hit nearly .300 the past three weeks, his OBP in that time is .318 and his SLG a sickly .386. Simply put, he isn’t getting on base, and when he does hit the ball the results make him look more like Erick Aybar than an all-star caliber player. Cut the guy all the slack you want, but Morneau is on pace to hit .242 with six homers, 54 RBI and 38 runs scored. I find it hard to suggest to people that he is even worthy of a roster spot in standard 12 team leagues.
Lohse has been a bone of contention for me. There is no disputing that he has been spectacular this year going 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA and a sparkling 0.92 WHIP. He’s also been amazingly consistent allowing more than two earned runs just once in his last 10 starts. Still, I have big time reservations. In more than a decade of work the guy owns a 4.66 ERA – more than double his current rate. I’m not talking about three months or two years, I’m talking more than 10 years of data (he’s never posted a season ERA better than 3.78, and it was his only year ever under 4.00). Lohse is also operating at a 6-year low in his K/9 rate (5.27), a fact that has only been offset by a career best 1.68 BB/9 mark (more than a batter below his 1.72 career rate). He’s also currently operating at one third of his career HR/9 mark of 1.10 at 0.34. Toss in three other salient factors. (1) His current BABIP is .230. He’s never had a mark better than .280 and owns a career rate of .302. (2) His current left on base percentage is 79.6 percent. His career rate is 70.1 percent. (3) He’s been under 120-innings pitched each of the last two years, and three times in the last five years he’s failed to reach 130-innings. I’m not saying it’s impossible that Lohse keeps this up, but it certainly seems like he is fighting against some extremely long odds.
Masterson has exceeded all expectations this season with a 3.07 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 11 starts. Though his K/9 rate is a career low at 6.26, he’s also cut his walk rate by more than half a batter from his career rate down to 3.19 per nine. He also continues to be the master of the ground ball with a 56 percent rate leading to a GB/FB ratio of better than two to one (2.05). A slight regression across the board seems likely, but there is little reason to panic that he will suddenly turn into Luke Hochevar.
If you need pitching depth you can make the deal since I’m just not sold that Morneau will return to his previous glory though know that you aren’t picking up two aces but merely two solid arms.
I need some offense. Should I drop Ted Lilly or Ryan Dempster for Mike Morse?
– @Sport_Fanatic
Lilly hasn’t been as good as expected this year for the Dodgers. At the same time, he has gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts, is sporting a 1.29 WHIP and has a strong 3.42 K/BB ratio. There is growing concern about his velocity, it is down for the 4th straight year, which has likely been the primary culprit for the drastic drop in his strikeout rate that has seen the number fall to 5.83 per nine this year (he’s been at 6.84 or better in each of his 12 seasons). He has induced more grounders this season that at any point since 2005 to help mitigate the loss of punchouts, but his fantasy value currently sits on the precipice of irrelevance in a 12 team league until his punchouts come back. The question is, will they?
Dempster allowed 14 runs in two late April starts, but since then he has been very good. In May Dempster has posted a 3-1 record, a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP an a 7.82 K/9 mark, totals that line up very well with Ryan’s performance from 2008-10: 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.20 K/9 mark. As expected, his early season home run woes seem to have stabilized as he has allowed just two homers in his last six outings. Add it all up an, despite a 6.00 ERA, Dempster’s xFIP says hie ERA should be 3.45, a mark that would better his ERA the past two years (it would also be a career best in the xFIP category).
Morse was everyone’s darling after a spring that saw him annihilate pitching to the tune of a .364-9-18 line in just 21 games. Morse then started off the season on fire. Wait, he actually started as if the fire was put out when the games started to count as he hit .224 with one homer in April. Flash forward a month and it has all changed. Morse finds himself in the daily lineup now that Adam LaRoche is out dealing with shoulder woes. Morse has responded to the playing time by hitting .386 with six homers in the month. The truth is that he has been even better of late with a .385 average and five of those homers over the past two weeks. Morse has hit .289 with 22 homers and 63 RBI over his last 394 at-bats, and there is little reason to think he won’t be able to reach those totals this season.
Given Lilly’s advancing age and declining fastball velocity, I’d drop the lefty to add Morse and his white hot bat.
Is Jake Peavy back to being an “ace”? I’m talking skill wise, not injury risk wise.
– @Dmitch4
First off, I don’t think you can remove the injury risk with Peavy. We’re talking about a pitcher who has failed to throw 110-innings the last two years, and one that is coming back from a shoulder procedure that no other pitcher in big league history ever has. Injuries have been, and will continue to be, a major issue for Peavy, there’s simply no way to remove that from the equation.
Second, despite the outwardly positive results (3.24 ERA, 0.88 WHIP), his overall effort simply doesn’t match his previous levels. The easiest way to see this is to simply check out his K/9 rate. The owner of an 8.88 career mark, Peavy was at 8.60 or better each year from 2004-09. Last season that mark dipped to 7.82, and so far this year it’s caved all the way to 5.76. The only reason no one has noticed is that Peavy has walked one guy in four starts. Obviously that isn’t going to continue. He’s also cut his career HR/9 mark by 2/3, and that isn’t going to continue, especially in a home park that is home run friendly.
So to sum it up, no, Peavy is not back to being an “ace.” He’s certainly worth taking a risk on because as we’ve seen when he’s healthy he can be exceedingly effective (hello Erik Bedard), but I just can’t trust him given his track record the past few years.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
(1) Jake Peavy twirls masterpiece. Should you be buying?
(2) Colby Rasmus, Matt Holiday and Lance Berkman hurt.
(3) Fernando Salas the Cards’ closer? Not so fast.
(4) Adam LaRoche = abysmal. Is a turn around coming?
(5) Injured players update – Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton.
By Ray Flowers
(1) David DeJesus out for the year with injured thumb.
(2) It’s true, Brian Roberts is back.
(3) Carl Crawford returns to the starting lineup.
(4) Justin Masterson could be shut down in September.
(5) Rangers could get Rich Harden and Derek Holland back soon.
(6) J.A. Happ to return to Phillies because of injury to Jamie Moyer.
(7) The Royals have recalled Alex Gordon. Should you care? Read Five Questions to find out (there is also more in that piece about Roberts return and what to do with Happ).
By Ray Flowers
Another day, another top fantasy option has come down with an injury. In fact, you were almost as likely to take a player who has spent time on the DL or on the bench this year with your first round pick as you were likely to draft a healthy player. Just look at how many of the top-15 options heading into the year have dealt with injury.
Miguel Cabrera tweaked a hamstring on Thursday and will be held out of the lineup on Friday though word is that he might be able to pinch-hit if needed. No Cabrera owner can be too upset since their man has hit .354 with 10 home runs, 38 RBI and 34 runs scored so far this season – provided this doesn’t become a DL-type thing.
Hanley Ramirez: He has battled through a variety of injuries all year, and though he is hitting a robust .342, he has only eight home runs and eight steals on the year.
Jose Reyes: The latest news says that his injured calf is now an injured right hamstring tendon. Whether or not that is the same injury and the Mets have kept it under wraps is unknown, but the bottom line is that he is on the DL and the New York Post is reporting that he could miss up to six weeks with the injury. He was hitting only .279 with 11 steals in just 36 games, woeful production for a top-5 pick.
Ryan Braun: Like Hanley, Braun continues to play through a variety of bumps and bruises. Still, he has produced hitting .316 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI, though that pace leaves him barely on pace to produce his third straight 30-100 season. He has only gone deep twice in 19 games which leads me to think he physically ain’t right.
Grady Sizemore: Dude has been lost all year, and now we know why – his elbow is jacked up. Grady hasn’t had surgery on his elbow yet, but it looks like it might be required despite the fact that an MRI didn’t show any structural damage. Sizemore has gone 20/20 in 4-straight year and he could still reach that level since he has nine home runs and seven steals so far provided he doesn’t go under the knife, but his .223 average and .726 OPS show just how awful he has been.
Alex Rodriguez: Had hip surgery and as a result didn’t take the field until May 8th. He is only hitting .250 and doesn’t have a single steal, but he has gone deep seven times with 22 RBI in 26 games.
Josh Hamilton: Like Sizemore, Hamilton may need surgery to fix what ails him. Hamilton is currently on the DL with a strained abdominal muscle. He could be back in two weeks, or he could miss up to two months if he needs surgery. He was hitting only .240 with a .746 OPS though he had drive in 24 runs in 35 games.
Here are some further notes of interest on Friday…
David Ortiz is having his eyes checked since he reported having dry eyes of late. You would think that someone would have checked out his vision a long while ago given his putrid work at the dish this year which includes a .187 average and one home run through 187 ABs. Perhaps some new spectacles will help?
J.J. Putz will be on the shelf for an estimated two months, possibly more, as he will have his elbow operated on to clean some things up. If he comes back as expected, and the team is able to get Billy Wagner back as well, no one will want to face the Mets in September if they can go Putz-Wagner-Francisco Rodriguez in the 7-8-9 innings. I know I wouldn’t.
Brad Penny apparently is on the Braves radar as they look to add some pitching depth. First off, the Red Sox would likely entertain the idea of moving Penny since John Smoltz appears on the cusp or a return to the rotation. The Sox also have Justin Masterson who can start if needed, and don’t forget about Clay Buchholz who continues to toil away in Triple-A simply dominating hitters with his filthy stuff to the tune of a 4-0 record with a 1.74 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and a 4.75 K/BB mark. If you ask me, Penny is the worst option out of those four, so why not move him? If the Braves wanted to add a veteran arm, why didn’t they just hold on to Tom Glavine? For his part, Penny is a very deceiving 5-1 this season thanks to a ton of run support as he has posted a 5.63 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 5.63 K/9 and a 2.00 K/BB. My disdain for Penny is well chronicled going back a couple of seasons, and nothing I have seen from him this season has changed my mind one bit.
Oh, and one last note. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on the Fantasy Buffet, our Monday through Friday podcast at Fanball.com, recently did a 1-on-1 interview with the Jets’ running back Leon Washington. Listen for that interview on Monday during the 11AM-12PM time slot that we do the show. You can access the interview at the link posted above on Monday.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
