FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Do you like playing fantasy baseball? Do you like making money? Are you a fan of Sin City?

Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to buy that vacation home you always wanted?

$1 Million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to FanDuel.com and sign up for today’s contest that also gives you a chance to win part of the $24,000 in prizes for Friday’s event.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup, as well as those you would be wise to consider passing on for this Friday.

 Visit FanDuel.com.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September13, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Keeper for next season in 20th of 25 rounds, Jeff Samardzija or Brett Anderson?
– @Valen007

Very interesting question since both will represent tremendous values at that cost.

Anderson has dominated in four starts this season allowing a total of three runs (two earned) leading to a 0.69 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Please tell me every one of you reading this understands that this is just one of those short runs pitchers with strong skills run into from time to time. Anderson is not the new Roy Halladay folks. After all he did have a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 ERA last season before injuring his elbow. What he is though, without question, is a very solid major league hurler. Take a look at his career numbers.

3.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.35 K/9, 2.68 K/BB

Wait a second, those aren’t Anderson’s numbers those are the numbers of a pitcher that I think profiles very similarly to Anderson in terms of their expected fantasy output – the Brewers’ Shaun Marcum. Here are Anderson’s career numbers.

3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.91 K/9, 3.21 K/BB

Anderson should be a very solid option in 2013, but his skills, despite what he has been doing for the last month, are nowhere near elite, though I do love that 54 percent career ground ball rate which does set him up to be an arm that could have some impressive runs with his diving, darting pitches.

Samardzija was recently shut down after he threw as many innings this season as he had his previous four years at the big league level (he actually tossed five more innings this season). Samardzija finished his first full season as a starter on a high note throwing a complete game as he lowered his ERA to 3.81 and his WHIP to 1.22. Those ratios are a fair match for the career rates of Anderson, but Samardzija owns one skill that Anderson will never posses – he can strike out batters with the best of them. Over the last two seasons he’s struck out a batter per inning including 180 in 174.2 innings this season. That dominance resulted in a 9.27 K/9 mark which when coupled with a massive reduction in his walk rate allowed JS to post a 3.21 K/BB ratio – an exact match for the career rate of Anderson. That’s the key with Jeff. Is he the guy we’ve seen for most of his career as a reliever, the one who averaged 5.20 walks per nine, or is he the arm that stamped out the free passes as a starter averaging 2.89 per nine innings this year? If he can keep that walk rate down he should be on his way to continuing to post numbers that rival if not surpass his 2012 effort in coming seasons.

I’d frame the answer this way. Do you want a “safe” play or an “upside” play? Anderson is more likely to be the stable/solid play next year, especially since I’m not sold on the drastic walk reduction that Samardzija offered this year. The A’s also recently announced that Anderson will not be on an inning pitched count next year so he should be free to let her rip (the Athletics are not the Nationals). Samardzija is likely to produce a substantially higher amount of Ks, like an entire dominating reliever more, so that right arm of his shouldn’t be discounted one bit. Given the fact that neither is going to be your ace in 2013, I’d favor the power righty from Chicago.

With Adam Dunn down, who is the best option for the rest of the season: Mark Reynolds, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones?
– @JohnnyCrashMLB

Dunn cannot get over that oblique issue he is dealing with as the White Sox try to hold off the Tigers for the AL Central title (they are leading by one game). Dunn is also sitting on the cusp of season season long milestones with 38 homers, 88 RBIs and 79 runs scored, oh and he has 194 Ks too. If you’re a Dunn owner you’ve been without your slugger for a week now, and that time on the shelf may be extended. So who do you target to add to your club?

Reynolds has been stroking it for a while now. The last three weeks he has gone deep nine times with 17 RBIs, 14 runs scored an a 1.157 OPS.  Don’t forget that he also brings some positional flexibility with his first and third base qualification. Taking things back a bit further, let’s go to the start of August, he’s gone deep 13 times with 27 RBIs, 24 runs scored an a .271 batting average over 36 games. We all know how streaky he can be, but right now the streaking is a good thing as he’s making it happen in the power categories while doing something odd – not hurting you in the batting average category.

Morneau may not be all the way back, but he’s close, and that’s great news for a guy who has been battling it for so long. One homer from returning to the 20 HR plateau, Justin is hitting .278 with 75 RBIs in 119 games for the Twins. He hasn’t had any success, like none, against lefties (.231-2-19 with a .575 OPS in 173 ABs), but he has mashed righties (.307-17-56 with a .952 OPS in 280 ABs). He’s also been on the top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .318 with eight homers and 37 RBIs in 54 games.

Jones, like Reynolds, also qualifies at two spots (1B and OF). Of course, this decision is more about the power bat that the players are wielding than it is about positional flexibility (more on that below). Jones has hit 23 homers, a career best, and is two runs (he has 62) and 11 RBIs (75) from tying his career bests. He’s also sporting a .283 batting average after failing to reach .250 in either of the past two seasons. Like Morneau he is a total waste against lefties (.210/.250/.339 in 62 ABs), and like Morneau and Reynolds he’s been very sharp of late. Over his last 39 games Jones has hit .316 with seven homers, 26 RBIs and 22 runs scored providing those that have been playing him with some near elite level hitting.

Honestly, there is no wrong answer here. In truth, all three men have actually been better fantasy performers in the second half of the season than Dunn who has hit .207 with 13 homers and 27 RBIs. At this point of the season there’s little chance that even a .300 hitter for the final 20 games is going to move the needle on your team batting average since you’ll have so many at-bats piled up on your squad (not to mention that you’ve been saddled with that .208 deadweight that is Dunn’s batting average this year). There’s also no real speed to speak of with this group either, so we can forget about steals. Morneau and Jones are pretty useless against lefties, so that dings them. Given that Jones qualifies at two spots he would be my selection over Morneau (you never know when you might need that flexibility so I’ll let it be the tipping point between those two). So it’s Jones versus Reynolds for me. Given that I’m  operating under the assumption that batting average isn’t a real concern here I’d roster Reynolds and hope his power/run producing ways continue to impress the final couple of weeks of 2012 (over at Fleaflicker Reynolds isn’t owned in as many leagues as I would think he would be).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT.

Around the Horn: August7, 2012

(1) Ben Revere has a 20 game hitting streak. Stealing bases like crazy.

(2) Justin Morneau – is he back to being a force?

(3) Ryan Doumit getting it done at the plate.

(4) Eric Young Jr., stolen base demon. Could playing time follow?

(5) Mike Trout = amazing. What else can I say?

(6) Buster Posey best hitter on planet?

(7) Ben Sheets thinks it’s 2007. Over at Fleaflicker though, people are still wary.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 19, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Justin Morneau just hit the wire. Drop Dexter Fowler, Kendrys Morales or Billy Butler to get him?
– @JoshNarva

I’m cheering on Morneau as much as the next guy, but let’s slow our roll here a bit. I know that he’s playing defense which is great news, and that he has hit three homers in his last two games. All of that is well and good. However, someone needs to mention that the last time this guy had 300 at-bats was 2009. It should also be noted that over his last 80 games played Morneau has hit .235 with eight homers and 36 RBI. I’m all for hoping he will return to being the 20-100 man he was for 4-straight years from 2006-09, but he’ll need a lot more than two strong games to convince me he is back to that level.

The obvious move to be made would be to drop Morales. Both play first base and both are coming off injury. But think back three weeks. Is there anyone, and I mean any one of you, that drafted Morneau ahead of Morales? I bet there wasn’t one of you as Morneau was still struggling while Morales was simply bashing the ball in Spring Training. Ask yourself this question. Are you going to let 11 games, the total each has played this season, change the opinion that you held three weeks ago?

Should I drop Carlos Marmol for Santiago Casilla, Fernando Rodney or Jim Johnson?
– @harveynuts

More panic in the streets when it comes to closers, but I can’t really blame anyone (did you see the crazy news that Brad Lidge is dealing with vertigo? It’s like anything, and I literally mean anything, could sideline a 9th inning arm at this point. I fully expect one of the closers in the game to go missing in the Bermuda Triangle at some point in the near future).

Quickly, my thoughts on each.

Johnson has been stable, after some spring concerns, converting all five of his save chances. His K-rate is uninspiring (5.77 per nine for his career), ditto his K/BB (2.01), but he keeps the ball on the ground (57 percent). He could offer a 2011 Brandon League type effort if everything goes just right.

Rodney, how can I put this? He stinks. From 2007-11, that’s 270 games worth of pitching, had an ERA of  4.42, a WHIP of 1.50 and his K/BB was pathetic at 1.57. He wasn’t, and let me stress this, league average in any of those three categories the past five years. Good luck with him holding down the 9th inning job all year even if he’s been one of the better producers this season (see Fleaflicker).

Casilla has concerns as well, primarily his lack of pinpoint control. For more, see The On Deck Circle.

Keep Marmol. Not only does he have the longest track record of 9th inning success among this group, he’s also the most dominating option with one of the best K-rate’s in the history of baseball (min. 450 innings pitched his 11.73 K/9 mark is 4th all-time with the leader being Rob Dibble at 12.17). With Kerry Wood dealing with arms woes who would the Cubs turn to – Shawn Camp or James Russell? Please.

With RP being a crap shoot so far, does the value of Jose Valverde increase?
– @Phastball

It depends on how you view the value of Valverde. Is his job safe? Absolutely. Is he coming off a perfect season with 49 saves in 49 chances given him a massive amount of rope? Without question. At the same time, he didn’t pitch near as well last season as most people assume when they look at the save conversion rate. (1) Since 2006 his K/9 rate has gone down every season. 2011 was the first time in his career that he struck out less than a batter per inning. (2) Never a paint the corner artist, Valverde has walked an average of 4.39 batters per nine innings the past two years, more than a full batter worse than the league average. (3) His career GB/FB ratio of 0.96 is less than the big league average (about 1.10), another mark against him. I’m not predicting failure from him in 2012, he’ll get his saves, but realize he isn’t the pitcher that he was a few years ago even if he’s been so impressive at converting those save chances of late.

What do you think about Tommy Milone? What’s the comparable ceiling for this guy?
– @tallen1984

Scouts like Milone, but at the same time they’ve always been a bit reluctant to fully push him as an elite prospect since his pure “stuff” just isn’t that dominant. However, he had one of the more remarkable seasons of any minor league hurler last year when he went 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 148.1 innings at Triple-A. While those are good numbers, here is the remarkable part – he struck out more than a batter per inning, 155 in total, while walking 16 batters – sixteen. That’s 16 walks in 24 starts folks leading to a 9.69 K/BB ratio. Amazing.

Milone figures to have success, he certainly knows how to pitch, but he still throws 87-88 mph, and there is no way he’s going to be able to post numbers in the bigs like he did last season in the minors. The best case scenario for him this year is something akin to what Mark Buehrle accomplished last year (13-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 109 Ks).

Nolan Reimold or Matt Joyce for 4th OF?
– @gtrevino1975

I’ve been getting a ton of Reimold questions thanks to his impressive start (.341/.357/.707, four homers, eight RBI), but I’m not shocked at his success. In the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, I highlighted Reimold as a potential breakout performer you could grab on the cheap. Reimold has flashed the type of skills that lead one to believe that if he gets daily playing time, something he has received in the early going, that he could hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases (he is dealing with neck spasms and a hammy injury though, so there are a few health woes to worry about). He may never be more than a league average type in batting average, nothing in his K-rate, BB-rate, BABIP, GB/FB, LD-rate says he is anything but blah, but those counting numbers could be pretty darn solid if he gets 500 at-bats.

The real question here is do you go with the hot start and potential of Reimold and forgive the fact that he’s been lingering as a letdown for the past few years, or do you turn to Joyce who had a nice season last year when he posted a fantasy line of .277-19-75-69-13. In essence, Joyce was the type of player last season that many “think” Reimold can be. It’s not like Joyce has a long track record of success compared to Reimold, but I’m a fan of been there, done that. I had Joyce a few spots ahead of Reimold in my rankings three weeks ago before the season started, and Reimold is bit beat up right now physically, so I’m still leaning in the direction of Joyce right now.

Mat Latos was just dropped. I have Ted Lilly, Matt Harrison and Brandon Beachy. Do I drop anyone for him?
– @GetARealJob111

This is all I’m going to say about Ted Lilly. Since 2007 Lilly has the 5th best base runner per nine inning (10.40) mark of any pitcher in baseball who has thrown at least 750-innings, and he’s one of just 14 pitchers who has an K/9 mark of 7.50 in four of the last five seasons, minimum 150 IP a year (he just missed making it 5-for-5 last year with his 7.38 mark).

Beachy has a stupendous arm. In 168.2 career innings he has a K/9 rate of 10.30 and a K/BB rate of 3.33. Those are elite numbers. I’m not letting a young hurler with numbers like that go.

The guy you let go of to add Latos, and please add Latos and don’t panic with his poor performance to date (0-2, 8.22 ERA, 1.89 WHIP – it’s been three starts people), is Harrison. For more on why you should move on from Harrison see Quick Starting Pitchers.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.  

First Base Mediocrity?

In years past, first base was the land of offensive titans. To a certain extent that still is the case with names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez etc. However, once you get past the elite options at first base, let’s say outside the top-10 or 12, there are a whole bunch of options that have similar outlooks for 2012. I’ll break down some of those players in today’s piece (for my rankings of first baseman, and all the positions, go pick up a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide).

The old and boring: Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee
All three of these guys are certain to provide plenty of production in 2012, though all have seen their best days pass them buy. Berkman turned back the clock last year but there are questions. How will he do without Pujols? After two years of less than 140-games played, can he reasonably be expected to make 145 appearances again? Even if he stays healthy, where did last year’s production come from after two down years? Pena will hit his 28 homers and knock in his 80 runs like he has the past five years. He’s also failed to hit .230 the last three years and has gotten so bad against lefties (.133 in 120 ABs last year) that he may not face many of them in 2012. Lee also qualifies at outfield which is nice, and he has hat 19 homers and 80 RBI each of the past 12 years. Still, there’s not much going on here anymore.

The young and boring: Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez
Freeman reportedly gained 15 lbs of muscle. Newsflash, you can’t gain 15 lbs of muscle in five months. Maybe he went on a diet of Bacon Milkshakes? Even if he did gain muscle he’ll have to learn to lift the ball more if he was to significantly increase his homer total (he’s HR/F ratio for his short career is under 35 percent, and that’s below the big league average of about 37 percent). Sanchez did see an increase in his walk rate last year, but he’s basically produced identical seasons back-to-back. H’s solid, but there likely isn’t another level left for the 28 year old.

The young and who knows?: Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt
Davis is young, has the pedigree, and his ankle finally appears to be healthy. Still, this offseason talk of him hitting .300 with 30 homers is completely the result of him playing in New York. I don’t think he’ll hit either of those numbers this season, but if healthy, the power production should be solid. Goldschmidt has a bright future. The D’backs will give him all the at-bats he proves he can earn, and with that he should also be a solid run producer.

The old and who knows?: Ryan Howard
I’m not a big fan. You can read why in his Player Profile.

The flat out who knows: Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales
Both guys appear to be progressing, and the Twins and Angels are starting to grow optimistic. At the same time, neither is anything other than a depth addition with the hope that their previous levels of productivity return.
You can get solid production after the elite options are taken at first base, but it doesn’t appear very likely that you’re going to get difference making numbers after the first 10 or so options are off the board at the position.

You can check out how Fleaflicker has the first sackers ranked by clicking on the link.

By Ray Flowers

Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers

Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings

As we wrap up the wild and wooly week that was dominated by the Angels and the Marlins, there are still plenty of newsworthy stories that we need to keep an eye on.

Gio Gonzalez is coming off two impressive seasons for the A’s as an innings eating, K machine (at least 200 innings and 171 strikeouts each of the last two years). He’s also won 31 games for a less than elite club in Oakland, and he’s a 26 year old left hander. So of course the A’s are looking to deal him. I get it, the A’s don’t have a lot of options since they are not exactly flush with cash, but what’s the point of having a club if you have to deal exactly the type of players that you should be building around? There is also a growing belief that the A’s and D’backs might work out a deal centered around Trevor Cahill.

Hiroki Kuroda is still looking for a home. It’s hard to tell if the reason he hasn’t signed is because teams fell that his heart really isn’t in it, i.e. that he wants to return to Japan, or if Kuroda is just being super picky about where he’ll sign.

Matt Moore is the best pitching prospect in baseball, a fact I spoke to in my Around the Horn Video from September 23rd (I compared him to Stephen Strasburg). The world saw that potential start to be realized late in the playoffs and the Rays, never one to ignore talent, have taken a big risk that could end up being a huge win for the team. The Rays signed Moore, who has just 9.1 innings of regular season work to his name, to a 5-year, $14 million deal (there are also three option years in the deal that could extend the contract out to $37.5 million over eight years, an a couple of escalator clauses could actually boost the total value up to $40 million). It’s a huge risk given his youth an inexperience, the Rays are saying their prayers that he doesn’t end up turning into Scott Kazmir, but if we’re six years down the road and Moore has been an All-Star four times, it will be a huge win for the club.

The Twins are operating under the assumption that Justin Morneau will be able to return to playing first base next season. Don’t count me in that group. As I said all offseason last year, I had no interest in adding Morneau to my fantasy squad, an unfortunately I was right (he appeared in only 69 games). For the Twins to expect the oft injured one to be handle first base duties is asking too much if you ask me. They’d be better off just sticking him at DH and letting him help the club with his bat.

Carlos Pena is a mere consolation prize for whomever doesn’t add Prince Fielder, but given that there could be a $100 million difference between their contracts, maybe he isn’t that bad a fall back option. Pena’s career batting average is pathetic (.239), an as I’ve written before he’s hit under .230 the last three seasons, but he is a legit power bat. The Cardinals, who now have an opening at first base, are reportedly kicking the tires.

Francisco Rodriguez apparently didn’t like what he was hearing from the marketplace, so he decided to accept the Brewers offer of arbitration. Given that the Brewers aren’t very likely to be pleased about paying a setup man $13 million a year (that’s the estimate of what K-Rod will get in arbitration), it’s hardly a surprise that the Brewers are engaging in talks with multiple teams about the setup man who wants to be a closer.

And finally, the Cubs and Rockies worked out a deal that involved Ian Stewart going to the Cubs along with Casey Weathers for Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu. Colvin has some nice pop, he’s hit 26 homers with 78 RBI and 78 runs in 581 career at-bats, but he really struggled last year hitting just .150 with a .509 OPS in 206 at-bats. The Rockies figure to give him some time in the outfield and at first base. As for Stewart, he’ll be given a chance to compete for the opening at third base with Aramis Ramirez no longer in the mix. A talented hitter with prodigious power, Stewart is a strikeout machine that simply hasn’t been able to figure out big league pitching. Still, he’s only 26 years old, so perhaps a chance to play on a regular basis will allow the former first round draft pick to finally find his footing at the big league level.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ryan Doumit

On Friday last week Ryan Doumit picked his home for the 2012 season, and it will be in Minnesota with the Twins. While the deal seems to be a solid signing for the Twins, one year and $3 million (it also includes performance bonus’), what does this mean for the future of Joe Mauer behind the plate? Moreover, is this a signal that the team isn’t sold on Justin Morneau ever returning to All-Star levels? Does this signing signal the end of Jason Kubel’s tenure with the club (he was offered arbitration)? Those are all questions to ponder for another day as today I’m going to focus on Mr. Doumit.

A passable defensive catcher, Doumit is more prized for his bat. In fact, his best position certainly isn’t behind the dish, it’s probably as a hitter at it. Doumit appeared in 60 games as a catcher in 2011, and he’ll certainly see some time there in 2012. He’ll also likely play some first base, a spot he covered three times last year, and potentially the outfield (he appeared in right field in 18 games in 2010). Doumit will also have the advantage of being able to fill the DH role, and perhaps that will enable him to reach a career best in games played (currently 124 games). And that brings up major sticking point with Doumit – he’s always seemingly hurt. Just look at his games played totals the past seven years: 75, 61, 83, 116, 75, 124 and 77. That’s an average of 87 games a season. Given his constant battles to stay on the field, a move to the AL where he can DH seems like an ideal fit.

Doumit has had so many starts and stops from year to year that it’s often forgotten that he’s a darn good hitter, especially so for a player who qualifies at catcher. I’m gonna lay out the average, OBP and SLG of a handful of players. See if you can guess which one belongs to Doumit.

.273/.374/.474
.271/.334/.442
.271/.338/.451
.262/.328/.415

I know you’ll never guess, so I’ll just let you know who the lines belong to: Jorge Posada, Ryan Doumit, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters.

That’s right, Doumit’s career slash line numbers fit right in with that mix of catchers. Shocked? How about this. Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2. Those aren’t great numbers, but how many catchers reached all five numbers in 2011? The answer is two: Alex Avila and Mike Napoli. If we remove the steals and just ask how many went .271-15-61-54 the group only grows by one more (Miguel Montero).

Remember, the 5×5 numbers I just mentioned are for Doumit’s entire career based on a 450 at-bat season. Will he reach that at-bat total in 2012? A lot of that certainly depends on his health, and we are talking about a guy who has only two 100 games seasons in his career. I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention that Doumit has never, not one time, had 450 at-bats in a season (his career high is 431). Therefore, it’s clear that there is a lot of guesswork going on here. Still, when others reach for a catcher early in your draft it might be wise to sit back, wait a while, and take a chance on the newest Twins’ backstop as he could end up being quite the draft day pickup if he can stay in the lineup.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September17, 2011

(1) Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens both out for the first round of the playoffs if the Braves make it?

(2) Hanley Ramirez has shoulder surgery.

(3) Joe Mauer done for the year. Is Justin Morneau to follow?

(4) Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in danger of being shut down?

By Ray Flowers

Is It Safe?

Just when you thought it was safe to back into the water — that was a tag line from the movie Jaws, a timeless classic about a rogue great white shark with a taste for human flesh (it’s still a great flick after all these years). In a similar vein, just when you thought it was safe to give up on the slumping Andre Ethier — he goes out outs together a modest 4-game hitting that includes six hits, three runs, a homer, and five RBI over his last two outings. His production has been as unsteady as a boat in the high seas as he hit .385 in April, just .244 in August, and has hit a mere .221 with one homer in 140 at-bats against lefties. Still, with a solid final month of health he could hit .300 with 70 RBI and 80 runs scored, so it hasn’t been a total washout (he’s hitting .294 with 56 RBI and 65 runs scored).

How good is Roy Halladay? Not only does he have 6-straight years of 16 victories and twice as many wins (185) as loses (91) in his career, but he’s a consistency beast. In 2010 he had a 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .245 BAA. In 2011 those numbers are 2.47, 1.04 and .243. You have copious amounts of success when you post a 7.30 and 7.64 K/BB ratio (his marks in 2010 and 2011). In case you were wondering, Halladay’s worst monthly ERA was 3.00 in May, and his worst WHIP total was his 1.17 mark from the just finished month of August. Felix Hernandez, one of the best pitchers in the game, has season long marks of 3.37 and 1.20.

Justin Morneau is suffering some minor concussion related symptoms so he is going to be shut down for a few days. I wish the guy all the best because the man has been beat down by injury over the past year. Over his 68 games played this season he’s batting .227 with four homers and 30 RBI and a .618 OPS.

Sergio Santos has been dynamic for the White Sox this year to help stabilize a bullpen that was disastrous at the start of the year. Santos has a 12.68 K/9 mark, has allowed only three homers over 54.2 innings, and has converted 28 of 32 save chances. He’s also allowed just one run over his last 17 outings.

Tim Stauffer gave up seven runs while recording only five outs Tuesday. Blowups like that happen on occasion, but the truly amazing part of his outing is that he gave up all those runs while allowing one measly hit. How is that possible you say? Well, he walked seven batters (as an aside, what kind of manager leaves his pitcher in the game to walk seven batters?). Stauffer walked in a run when Hiroki Kuroda was issued a free pass. That finally got Stauffer removed from the game. Luckily for Timbo, Anthony Bass came into the game and allowed a salami (three of the runs were Stauffer’s).Tim’s ERA went from 3.42 to 3.76 with the outing.

Stephen Strasburg will make his triumphant comeback from Tommy John surgery when he takes the hill for the Nats on September 6th. Strasburg should have success right away, his stuff is simply too good not to, but avoid getting too far ahead of yourself. He’s dominated in the minors with 25 Ks and just three walks in 14.1 innings, and his fastball is sitting regularly at 96 mph, but he’s still yet to throw 75 pitches in a minor league outing. That sounds an awful lot like he will be a five inning pitcher to me for the rest of this season.

By Ray Flowers