Did You Know?

I bet you thought you knew it all. Even I don’t know it all. Today, let’s venture into the world of the unknown to find out some pretty cool factoids.

Did you know… that Hiroki Kuroda has a 2.88 ERA, better than Matt Cain (3.00), Ian Kennedy (3.12) and Tim Hudson (3.18) to name a few? So why does Kuroda get no respect? His record. He’s only 8-14 on the year, the 14 loses are tied for the NL lead with J.A. Happ. Still, amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 300 innings since the start of last season Kuroda’s 3.17 ERA is 14th best in baseball ahead of a slew of big arms like David Price (3.18), Jon Lester (3.28), Tommy Hanson (3.44) and Dan Haren (3.49). Maybe you should give Kuroda a look if you need a boost off the wire if your league mates are down on him cause of that win-loss record.

Did you know… that if we remove the week of death when Brandon League lost four games and had three blown saves, that his ERA would be 2.03? Or how about that his WHIP would drop to 0.79. It’s not like his season long numbers are bad (2.85 and 0.99), but think about how amazing they would look if he hadn’t forgotten how to pitch for a week. As it is he has racked up 29 saves leaving him one from becoming just the third man in the AL to hit that total (Mariano Rivera has 30 while Jose Valverde has 35 in 35 chances).

Did you know… that Justin Morneau is back on the field? I’m sure you did, but before you get all pumped up because he had a nice run over a week in the minors, realize that the guy is hitting .222 with a .611 OPS. Those are roughly the numbers of Lyle Overbay who is hitting .227 with a .648 OPS. Think about that. Lyle Overbay who was cut loose by the Pirates of all teams (he’s now with the D’backs), has a better average and OPS than Justin Morneau.

Did you know… that despite struggles and injuries, that Albert Pujols is still on pace for 39 bombs, 101 RBI and 108 runs scored? As a result of a rescent surger, Pujols has 29 homers, the most amongst all first basemen in the National League (the only first sacker with more is Mark Teixeira of the Yankees – he has 32). Pujols has also upped his average to .288 giving him a legit shot to finish the year with a .300-30-100 line for the 11th straight season. He already holds the all-time record with 10-straight such seasons.

Did you know… over the last three weeks the best starting pitcher in baseball has been Ervin Santana. He has gone 4-0 with a 0.76 ERA and 0.79 WHIP? He’s also posted a 5.00 K/BB ratio for the Angels during that time. This has been key. He just isn’t walking anyone with a total of 11 walks over his last eight trips to the hill. Moreover, he’s emerged with a “W” in each of his last five outings and in four of his last five trips to the hill he has gone at least 8.1 innings. He’s also allowed one or zero earned runs in each of his last five outings and six of his last eight trips to the mound. He’s as locked in as a pitcher can get.

Did you know… over his last 796 big league at-bats that Grady Sizemore is hitting .239? He was never a big average type of guy, but his career mark is still .270, well ahead of his pace from the past three years (moreover, Sizemore hit .279 from 2004-2008 before his recent work dragged down his career numbers). A four time 20 steal man, he swiped a career best 38 bases in 2008, Sizemore has stolen 17 bases over his last 200 games. Over his last 200 games he’s also gone deep only 28 times. From 2006-08 he averaged 28 homers a season. Face it, his body may just not be capable of handling the pounding of playing baseball on a daily basis.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 12, 2011

(1) The walking wounded – Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Kendrys Morales.

(2) Poor Hong-Chih Kuo.

(3) Eduardo Sanchez the Cardinals’ closer?

(4) Russell Martin slumping.

(5) Dallas Braden, Chris Young out with shoulder surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 28, 2011

(1) Yovani Gallardo is struggling. Is it time to panic?

(2) Add Joe Mauer to the list of injured players I was right about (Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau)

(3) What’s wrong with Andrew McCutchen?

(4) Carlos Carrasco (elbow) to DL. Is Alex White worth a pickup?

(5) Nick Swisher 0-for-18, Carlos Lee 0-for-15. For more on Swisher see his 2011 Player Profile.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 31, 2011

I’m gonna switch it up a bit today in honor of the start of the 2011 season. Instead of going in depth on a couple of questions, I’m going to answer some quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

12 team 5×5 mixed league. Kila Ka’aihue or Mark Trumbo?
– @truesportsfan

No team scares the bejesus out of me more than the Royals who never, and I mean never, seem to have a consistent plan. Take the case of Alex Gordon. He’s been demoted to the minors, asked to switch positions, and basically marginalized by the team. He goes to spring training this year, tears it up at the dish, and now seems likely to open the year in the third hole in the batting order. That makes total sense to me.

Ka’aihue should have been playing full-time in Kansas City last year. With Eric Hosmer coming quickly, the Royals need to determine if they truly have something in Kila since both guys play first base (and don’t forget about Billy Butler who really should be a DH). Kila has 25-30 homer pop, and the young man knows the strike zone (last year he had 88 walks and 69 Ks at Triple-A). He has the exact kind of patient/power approach that teams crave at first base. His future appears to be pretty bright after a strong spring and the Royals finally deciding to commit to him as a full-time player.

Trumbo was a monster at Triple-A last year (.299-36-122), and has looked capable of providing a ton of power this season if we look at his spring training numbers (.297-6-20 with a .978 OPS in 25 games). At the same time, I worry about where he will play once Kendrys Morales returns to action (potentially by mid to late April). The issue is this – the Angels have one to many players for 1B/OF/DH. For those five spots they have six guys: Trumbo, Morales, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Peter Bourjos. The key to Trumbo’s playing time is likely Bourjos. If he hits enough to get on base and use his 40+ stolen base wheels he’ll be in the lineup everyday (I didn’t even mention his defense which some consider to be as good as any outfielder in baseball) leaving Trumbo without a consistent spot in the lineup.

If choosing between these two first basemen I’d take Kila.

People seem down on Ryan Franklin. Would you swap him for Joel Hanrahan or Drew Storen?
– @Cwhitney1

Far too many people seem reluctant to tab Hanrahan this year, and I just don’t get it. Just compare his numbers versus Franklin last season.

Hanrahan: 12.92 K/9, 3.85 K/BB, 1.05 GB/FB
Franklin: 5.82 K/9, 4.20 K/BB, 1.15 GB/FB

Everything being equal, I’ll take the guy who strikes out twice as many guys and doesn’t rely on smoke and mirrors to get outs.

Storen has looked completely lost at times this spring, and the plan in Washington right now is to go with some sort of committee approach which could be led by Sean Burnett. Do yourself a favor and grab Hanrahan. It might now work out, but he is the hurler I’d take without question (for more on why that is see How to Evaluate Relievers).

With Brad Lidge out for a couple months who’s the safer pick – Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras?
– @tjaden_buster

Madson is by far the “safer” selection (see Radiant Relievers). However, apparently no one in the Phillies organization realizes that fact as he has constantly taken a backseat to Brad Lidge for 9th inning work in recent years. With the news about the shoulder injury with Lidge, one that could keep him out of action well into June,  that means Madson will finally be given the chance to close, right? Actually, no. It appears almost certain that the Phillies will call on Jose Contreras to take over closing duties. Contreras was dominant last year with more than a K per inning and an impressive 3.56 K/BB mark, but he is also “reportedly” 39 years old, had never posted a K/BB mark above 2.44 (albeit as a starter), and has four career saves. Contreras appears likely to have more early season value, but Madson is still the “safer” play based on his skill set.

Should I keep Justin Morneau at $18 in a 6×5 mixed. $260 budget? OPS is our 6th batting category.
– @frankdepino

I don’t have much faith in Morneau. He might go out and hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, but it’s a huge risk as he is still working his way back from a concussion. People seem to be thinking he is going to pick right up from last years level of production (.345-18-56 in 81 games), but I’m just not sold. First, he has a career .286 average and has only three seasons in his career over .275 if you include last season. Second, though his OPS was tremendous last year at 1.055, he’s only posted a mark over .880 one time in a full season (.934 in 2006). Third, and most obvious, is his health – will he be able to play everyday? Personally I wouldn’t have spent that much on Morneau, there’s just too much risk for me, but if he plays 145 games he’ll surely produce $18 worth of production.

Ryan Raburn is a better pick up than Logan Morrison?
– @mattextreme

Raburn is a player everyone seems really hot on right now. Do to popular demand, I wrote a piece about him entitled 2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn. Here’s a quick recap. He’s a great power option if he qualifies at second base, but as an outfielder he is merely a depth option. Regardless of where he qualifies, Raburn is still the choice between these two guys in my mind. Morrison could easily have the more productive big league career, but in terms of his fantasy value he is somewhat limited. He won’t steal many bases, he’s only swiped 23 over the past five years, and though he hit 24 homers at Single-A in 2007, he’s managed a mere 29 homers over his last 1,264 at-bats. His stroke is much more doubles oriented at the moment that one that will lift balls into the seats. His plate discipline is a strong suit, he could walk as many times as he strikes out which should allow him to produce an effective batting average, but without power or speed Morrison’s 5×5 value is somewhat limited.

What do you think of Tim Stauffer?
– @johndasher

Stauffer is one of those pitchers who somehow has moved up 35 spots on some people’s draft boards despite never having thrown a pitch in a regular season game. Hell, some people probably didn’t even know who he was two months ago. I’m not one of those guys as I was trumpeting him back in January in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer. Bottom line, there’s a lot to like with this Padres’ hurler.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Injuries and Random Musings

After the last couple of days where I’ve hit the “attach” button in email about nine zillion times sending out player capsules for designated hitters and catchers (thanks to all of you for your continued support), I thought I’d give myself a break and break down some of the more intriguing stories on the diamond with a particular focus on injuries.

* Adam Wainwright is done for 2011 as he’ll need Tommy John surgery. With a recovery time frame of 12-18 months, it’s not at all certain that he will be back on the hill for Opening Day 2012. Not only is that an obviously crushing blow to the Cards, it’s also a massive damper in the fantasy game which brings up two points.

(1) As much as I love doing mock drafts, having a draft for a league that you are actually going to play out before the month of March is crazy. In fact, you might want to push back your draft to late March because some big player is always hurt in camp leaving a gaping hole on the roster of the person who took that player. This year it was the Wainwright owner. Last year it was Joe Nathan who hosed me in my AL-only league leaving my team, well, to put it bluntly, screwed.

(2) The injury to Wainwright is reason #736 why drafting a pitcher in the first couple of rounds of a fantasy draft is such a risk. Any player can be injured at any time, but the chance of a catastrophic injury to a pitcher is far greater than one to an every day player.

* Just for the hell of it. Vernon Wells, who no one seems to like in fantasy or the real world (that is unless you are in the Angels’ front office), had three more RBI last year than Jayson Werth (88 to 85).

* Say it with me — I’m scared when health challenged players are already having problems early in camp. Some thoughts.

Justin Morneau: He’s progressing in his return from his concussion, even hitting live pitching the past two days which brings up two questions. (1) What the hell is live pitching? Is there “dead” pitching? (2) How bad are things with Morneau that we legitimately get happy hearing that he did something about 137.2 million kids have done the past two days. The Twins say he is still on pace to make the opening day roster, so we’ll all continue to send Justin happy thoughts. For more on Morneau click on Circling the Bases, my weekly column that will be featured at Rotowire.com.

Brian Roberts: He said he tweaked his neck while sleeping (apparently staying up late to watch infomercials about the Ab Crunch 7000 can make your neck sore). He’s missed a couple of days and could return to the field on Friday. Still, after all of his setbacks last season with his back, consider me exceedingly nervous with the talented second sacker.

Grady Sizemore: The 28 year old outfielder ran sprints this week for the first time since having microfracture surgery on his knee. Now we get a report from Buster Olney that it appears likely Sizemore will begin the year on the DL because he’s just not ready to go. I don’t know about you, but this guy scares the bejeus out of me and that’s hard to do because of my love of horror movies.

* Can anyone help me to understand why I’m borderline obsessed with Kristen Stewart of Twilight fame? She’s attractive sure, but it’s not like she is a bombshell or anything, and half the time she looks like she has been puffing on the magic dragon. Still, when she is on the screen I just can’t take my eyes off her.  By the way, I saw all three of the Twilight movies with my girlfriend at the time, and while I may not be a 16 year teen in throws of hormonal upheaval, I will admit to liking them – at least a little bit.

* Don’t forget about Alex Gordon on draft day. Ned Yost, Royals’ manager, is impressed with how Gordon has looked after working with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer this offseason. This is likely Gordon’s last shot to earn a full-time role with the Royals, a shocking admission for a guy who was taken 2nd overall in the 2005 Draft. I won’t reach for Gordon, but in rounds 25 and up in mixed leagues he’s as worthy as most of the riff raff that will be called out.

* Just for the hell of it Part II. Juan Pierre led the majors last year with 18 caught stealing which happens to be the same steal total that Hunter Pence and Justin Upton posted.

* And finally a parting shot. Remember sample size people. Don’t make the mistake of simply looking at a month of games, or a handful of starts from a pitcher, and think you’ve got it all figured out. Anyone can look good, or conversely horrible, if you take a quick snapshot. You want proof?
This pitcher went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP In August.
Who is this hurler?

The answer will likely shock some. It is Tim Lincecum who won 16 games, posted a solid 3.43 ERA, had a 1.27 WHIP and had 231 Ks to lead the NL. By the way, The Freak rebounded after his atrocious month of pitching to go 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in September.

Sample size people.

By Ray Flowers

Top-10 1B for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-10 First Basemen for 2011 and explain my thoughts on the position.

For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?.

Top-10 RPs for 2011.

Top-20 OFs for 2011.

Top-10 SS for 2011.

Top-10 3B for 2011.

Top-10 2B for 2011.

Albert Pujols is the number one player at the position, and there is no debate that he is also the #1 option in fantasy baseball. Hence, it’s no surprise that Pujols was ranked #1 by everyone on staff.

Miguel Cabrera is the second best right-handed hitter in baseball if you ask this scribe. He was also my choice as the AL MVP for 2010. It’s no surprise therefore that I listed him second amongst the first sackers. Everyone else agreed with me except for Jason Collette who listed Cabrera third, one spot behind Joey Votto. Given that everyone else on staff had Votto third, let’s just say that there is universal agreement on the top-3.

In the 4th spot we had power hitter extraordinare Ryan Howard. Even coming off the worst full season of his career (31 homers, 109 RBI), the staff clearly thinks he has a chance to return to the level that saw him produce at least 45 homers with 136 RBI each year from 2006-09.

Mark Teixiera was atrocious in April hitting .136 with two homers. Predictably he came on strong as the year progressed finishing with his customary power totals (33 homers and 108 RBI). Tex also scored 113 times, a career best, which helped to make up for his .256 average, the first time he had dipped below .280 since his rookie season. He was given a 7th place ranking by Seth Trachtman or he likely would have pulled ahead of Howard for 4th spot overall

Adrian Gonzalez came in 6th ahead of Prince Fielder, though I had the two in the other order. I bet the staff was thinking (a) Gonzalez could be traded and if he is, out of the best pitcher’s park in baseball, his numbers would improve; (b) Gonzalez is a more consistent player who owns a slightly higher career batting average (.284 to .279); (c) people were likely put off by the mere 83 RBI that Fielder had in ’10. I wonder if they would change their minds now that it appears that the shoulder surgery that Adrian Gonzalez had will keep him out of action until February or March?

In 8th and 9th were two sluggers who are dynamic options, albeit coming off of injury plagued seasons. Kevin Youkilis was his normal star self hitting .307-19-62 with 77 runs in just 102 games. He had surgery to repair a thumb injury and should be fine for the start of 2011. Justin Morneau was even more effective hitting an amazing .345 with 18 homers, 56 RBI and 53 runs in just 81 games. His season was ended by a concussion, and he is still not able to physically handle baseball related activities. The Twins believe he will be ready for opening day, though because of that health issue, I didn’t have Morneau in my top-10.

After that there were a bunch of players that didn’t receive a full compliment of votes. In fact, neither did Morneau (Youkilis was the last first basemen who appeared in the top-10 on all ballots).

My #9 guy was Paul Konerko. You can read more on my thoughts about him in the 2010 White Sox Team Review.

My 10th rated first basemen is the most consistent power hitter in baseball – Adam Dunn. In each of the past seven seasons he has hit at least 38 home runs. That is the second longest streak in baseball history – tied with Babe Ruth – and just two behind the all-time mark held by Sammy Sosa.

As they say, first base is the land of sluggers.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 17, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury yet another fractured rib.

(2) Second basemen return – Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia and Martin Prado.

(3) Is Justin Morneau done for the year?

(4) Mets place Francisco Rodriguez placed on disqualified list.

(5) Matt Lindstrom out, Brandon Lyon in as closer.

(6) Bryce Harper signs with Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 16, 2010

(1) Francisco Rodriguez out with torn ligament.

(2) Jeremy Hellickson likely to make only one more start.

(3) Carlos Pena back in action.

(4) Nelson Cruz back on DL – hammy injury.

(5) Eric Young Jr. to get shot at PT with Rockies.

(6) Ryan Howard (ankle) a bit longer on shelf. Chase Utley back on Tuesday.

(7) Jason Bay and Justin Morneau reports (both out with concussions).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 16, 2010

(1) Justin Morneau to DL.

(2) Doug Davis to DL. Yovani Gallardo likely not to need minor league work.

(3) Edison Volquez to start on Saturday.

(4) Jordan Zimmerman closing in on possibly August return.

(5) Chase Utley has cast removed.

(6) Shin-Soo Choo hopes to avoid surgery on thumb.

(7) Josh Beckett may need one or two more minor league starts.

(8) Mat Latos to DL with side strain – from a sneeze?

By Ray Flowers

Looking for a Change

I’ve had one of those days. You know, the ones that start out promising but by 9:30 you realize it’s all already gone horribly wrong. The ironic thing is that I was joking this morning on the Fanball podcast that when it goes horribly wrong I just pull back on the Captain Morgan Rum. Little did I know I was going to need it on this day. But don’t worry I’ll bounce back on Thursday, I’ve got me a plan to really enjoy myself, so this frown will be turned upside down soon enough. What about the following players who have been struggling mightily over the past 30 days – are the going to be flashing the pearly whites or burying their face in their bent arm trying to avoid the press?

Coming into play on Wednesday night, Bengie Molina was hitting .248. As recently as May 17th, less than a month ago, he was hitting a robust .330. How is it possible to fall so hard, so fast? Molina has had five hits – total – in his last 16 games. That’s right, Molina is 5-for-54 which works out to a .093 average the past few weeks. It has to get better than that, but he has been so awful all year you can’t possibly have him active in your lineup right now unless you start two catchers, and even then you could probably do better at the moment.

Over the past 30 days, the worst hitter in the bigs who has played on a regular basis is Cliff Pennington of the A’s at .124 which is actually light years worse than the .179 mark of the aforementioned Molina. Lest you think there are only two struggling hitters in the Bay Area, Aaron Rowand has the second worst mark in baseball in that time frame at .147. That’s ugly, and there is little sign of a turnaround for either Pennington or Rowand.

Aaron Hill is hitting .170 to extend his run of horrid work at the dish. A year after hitting .286, his third season in four years of at least .286 by the way, Hill is hitting .183 on the year. That’s right, his recent run of hitting futility is only imperceptibly worse than his work over the entirety of the season. I can’t fathom how it’s possible that he currently has a 7.6 percent line drive rate which is roughly 40 percent of his career 19.3 percent mark. His season just has to turn around at some point. It’s like he’s hitting with his eyes closed.

How had has Aaron Rowand been? He’s been so pathetic that his .172 OBP is still worse than the .179 batting average of Bengie Molina’s younger brother Yadier Molina (.179). I think I’ve just about overdosed either Molina’s and Capt. Morgan. OK, maybe just on Molina’s.

Matt Wieters, nicknamed The Messiah by some in Baltimore, continues to hit more like a defrocked priest than The Savior. Wieters hasn’t even hit his weight the past 30 days at .189, and he hasn’t gone deep even one time in those 74 at-bats. For a guy with such a smooth stroke and a background that screams for domination at the dish, he has been completely clueless for most of this season.

Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .374 — oops. That is barely good enough for a fifth place finish in that time: Miguel Olivo (.394), Justin Morneau (.391), Robinson Cano (.386) and Luke Scott (.382).

Nyjer Morgan has only two RBI, the same total as Ryan Theriot – the worst amongst regulars. Juan Pierre is tied for second worst with three RBI, but that is hardly a shock given that all three of these guys make their money with their legs and with slapping the ball around the yard. However, it is amazing to think that David Murphy, of the offensively minded Rangers, has just three RBI over his last 89 plate appearances. You have to think that will change moving forward as he has the ability to drive the ball much more effectively than we have seen for the majority of the season.

So there you have it. A quick rundown of some of the worst of the worst right now. I’m off to eat a little something since I have to get something on my stomach to avoid having this rum go to my head.

By Ray Flowers