The Case for Kemp

Sometimes there are people or things that just defy conventional wisdom. (1) How does Tim Lincecum throw the ball so hard when he is so small of frame? (2) How is Albert Pujols able to post virtually identical totals every year? (3) Why is figure skating such an undeniable draw despite that fact that none of us have ever even tried it? A fourth item, the reason for this piece, is the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp who doesn’t fit into a box but continues to produce regardless.

I was on record last season saying that I felt Kemp was a bit overrated in the fantasy game. Many had him pegged as a top-10 overall option, some even higher, though I was thinking more like top-25. Turns out I was completely wrong with this one, a fact that can easily be seen in his seventh overall Player Rater ranking for his 2009 efforts.

Why did I take a position counter to what others thought? There are a couple of obvious reasons (or so I thought at the time).

(1) Kemp strikes out a ton. His career K-rate is 24.8 percent, or almost exactly once every four at-bats. It’s pretty darn difficult to hit .300 when you do that. In fact, only four men in baseball posted a K-rate of at least 25 percent and still hit .300 in 2009: David Wright (26.2, .307), Justin Upton (26.0, .300), Shin-Soo Choo (25.9, .300) and Kevin Youkilis (25.5, .305). Kemp just missed out last season hitting .297 despite the fact that he actually cut his strikeout rate down to 22.9 percent.

(2) As a result of all the strikeouts his contact rate continues to languish in the dumps. In 2008 it was 75 percent, in 2009 it was 77 percent. The major league average is about 80 percent, so as you can plainly see Kemp isn’t even average in this measure.

(3) Of course, both #1 and #2 mean his BB/K mark is poor, terrible actually, at 0.30 for his career (the major league average is about 0.50). Last year he did improve to for the third straight year — all the way up to 0.37.

All of that work, which is below average, means that Kemp relies on a hit rate of rather large proportions to attain success, and that made me nervous. The major league average for BABIP is usually in the .290-.300 range. However, players set their own baselines. By that I mean that the .300 is merely an “average” with some hitters posting a .350 mark year after year (Ichiro) while others consistently come up short. Players set their own baselines, but there just aren’t many Ichiro Suzuki’s in the world, know what I mean? Therefore, when I saw Kemp with a .374 mark in Triple-A (2007), .417 as a rookie in 2007 with the Dodgers, and .363 in his first full season in 2008, I was obviously concerned. He did dip a bit last season, all the way down to .349 (wink, wink), but that mark was still 24th in baseball.

So it’s time for me to admit what others did a year earlier – the guy does what he does, and despite some rather concerning traits, Kemp is good enough to confound what some of the traditional measures say about him. He may not go about it in the way I would like to see him do it, and he might still yet have a rough patch or two because of his approach, but overall this guy is one superior ball player. There is little reason whatsoever to think he will not produce yet another 25/25, or better, type season for the Dodgers in 2010. Plus, you gotta love the guy for always telling the press that he and Rihanna are just friends despite all the pictures of him groping her all over the place (it was just reported that they moved in together as well, so I guess they can finally drop the charade). The guy not only has “game” on the field, he clearly has it off the field as well.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.16, 2010

(1) Chien-Ming Wang signs with Nationals: 1-year, $2 million ($3M in incentives).

(2) Chase Utley getting faster on the bases?

(3) Russell Branyan to Indians?

(4) Johnny Damon still talking with Tigers.

(5) Geovany Soto loses 40 lbs., stops junk food.

(6) Jose Reyes back at practice, looks good.

(7) Cody Ross wins arbitration case with Marlins, will make $4.45 million in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Outfield

The outfield is the land of multi-category producing titans. The 2009 season was no different, though some of the men that were expected to provide those efforts failed to do so. In what follows I will discuss my top-10 list from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season, and briefly hit on how each players season turned out.

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

1. Grady Sizemore

2. Carlos Beltran

3. Josh Hamilton

4. Ryan Braun

5. Ichiro Suzuki

6. Carl Crawford

7. Manny Ramirez

8. Matt Holliday

9. Alex Rios

10. B.J. Upton

Sizemore was derailed by injury, chiefly a strained elbow that required surgery (he also had hernia surgery). His performance simply killed teams that drafted him in the first round (.248-18-64-73-13) with all his 5×5 numbers being five year lows as he appeared in a mere 106 games.

Beltran has a lost season like so many other Mets. The chief injury was a bone bruise in his leg, more specifically his knee. As a result he appeared in just 81 games though he was exceedingly effective in his half season of work hitting a robust .325 with 10 homers, 48 RBI, 50 runs and 11 steals. Clearly he was on pace for a special season, but alas, injuries ruined his effort.

Hamilton had a bummer of a season that he kicked off with a wild bender during spring training that was kept under wraps (as a recovering addict, this was especially damaging news). I never thought he would repeat the 130 RBI, but I thought the 30-HR pop was certainly legit. Injuries limited him to just 89 games as he hit 10 homers with 54 RBI and a .741 OPS, only .160 points below his 2008 mark. Has a ton to prove in ’10.

Braun was a flat out stud and seems certain to be a top-5 selection in 2010 in almost every draft. Not only did he lead the NL with 203 hits, Braun also socked 32 long balls, drove in 114 runs, hit .320 and stole 20 bases. Not many have a legit shot at hitting .333 while going 20/20.

Suzuki started slowly due to injury, but you would never have known it if you looked at his final numbers that included 225 hits and a .352 average. Amazingly, the sorry Mariners only knocked him in 88 times on the year, and his steal total of 26 was actually a career worst, though no one should complain when you hit .352.

Crawford was an outright beast hitting .305 with 15 homers, 68 RBI, 96 runs and a career best 60-steals. Only one AL player bettered that steals total – Jacoby Ellsbury with 70, and he scored two less runs, hit only eight homers, and batted four points lower at .301.

Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for performance enhancing drugs, and with that his season was a bust. At the time of his suspension he was doing his best Albert Pujols impersonation hitting .355 with a 1.156 OPS through 36 games, but he returned to his a mere .255 with only 10 homers and 34 RBI in 68 games.

Holliday was, as I wrote prior to the start of last season in the aforementioned magazine, terrific. “He won’t be the Coors version of Holliday, but he should still be near the elite.” Compare his 2008 performance in Coors (.321-25-88-107-28) to his 2009 work in Oakland and St. Louis (.313-24-109-94-14). Seems like I hit this one out of the park.

Rios was an unmitigated disaster. Simply atrocious. Though he nearly went 20/20 (17 homers, 24 steals), he hit a paltry .247 with only 17 homers and 71 RBI. After his trade to the White Sox he apparently forgot how to play baseball as 41 games in Chicago netted a .199 average, nine RBI and 11 runs scored. Pathetic.

B.J. was the wrong Upton to place on the list. B.J. floundered to a .241 average with 11 homers, 55 RBI, 79 runs and 42 steals, while younger brother Justin simply tore it up in the desert on his way to hitting .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 84 runs and 20 steals.

By Ray Flowers

Wanted – Answers

I get email questions all week. It’s a great way for me to interact with you, my faithful readers, and today I thought I would answer a couple of the questions that have come to me the past few days.

What are your thoughts on Brett Anderson the rest of the year? Is he a better pickup than someone like Chad Gaudin?
– Joe, Chrisman, IL

Kyle Elfrink and I talked about Anderson on our Fantasy Buffet podcast on Monday, a show that can be heard live every day, Monday – Friday from 8-9 AM PST. If you want to give it a listen, simply tune in to the show at the link above. I’ll restate what I basically said at the time.

Anderson was great the other day, he took a perfect game into the seventh inning, and over his last three starts he hasn’t allowed a single run while giving up only seven hits in 21 innings. That leaves him with solid AL ratios (4.25 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) though it would be nice to see a few more strikeouts (6.61 K/9 – it was over a batter per inning in his minor league career). He has done a good job throwing strikes, 2.36 BB/9, but he has needed to as he has allowed 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Still, I don’t see much that really stands out here. I’m also a bit concerned by the fact that he has permitted a line drive rate of just 15 percent yet he still has an ERA well above four, partly because of a very low left on base rate of 65.5 percent. If that line drive rate climbs toward the league average (20), his average BABIP (.297) could certainly rise, and if that occurs, without an increase in his LOB mark, well, that ERA could be closer to five than four by the end of the year. He is a solid AL-only option for sure, and one with mixed league relevance, though I certainly wouldn’t think we are looking at the next Mark Mulder based solely on a great 3-game run. Still, he is probably a better bet at this point than Chad Gaudin who despite the impressive K-totals (9.58 K/9), doesn’t throw enough strikes (4.95 BB/9), or flash near the consistency one looks for (in his last nine starts he has allowed two or fewer runs five times but five or more runs three times with a six and an eight run outing mixed in).

I’m in a 10 team league with 5 x 5 scoring. We start five OF, & have to keep two OF. As of now, my keepers are Ichiro & Hawpe. I am looking to pair Hawpe with maybe Chipper for an upgrade and am looking at Justin Upton, Holliday & Markakis. Markakis & Holliday are on the same team & can likely be had easier than Upton. Who should I go after of these three?
– Jim

Keeper questions are always a bit difficult. Are there salaries involved? Is there a contract length for how long you can hold on to players? Etc. Without knowing the answer to those type of things, I’ll just answer with the belief that you can keep the guys for a couple of years, and that there is no salary concern.

(1) You have to keep Ichiro. Period. Not only does he hit .300+ every year, he does so in such a massive amount of at-bats that his production is even more valuable than you would think straight away (an extra 80 at-bats versus a “normal” everyday player with a .320 is huge to a team’s overall mark).

(2) Chipper Jones has little value in a keeper league at this point of his storied career, and he hasn’t looked anything like the hitter we have seen the past three seasons this year.

(3) Trying to parlay Chipper and Brad Hawpe for an upgrade seems like a fine idea. Remember, sell high. Hawpe is a solid 25 HR, 100 RBI guy, but his .324 batting average far exceeds his .288 career mark, and the man has no speed at all.

(4) Nick Markakis has averaged 22 homers, 100 RBI and 102 runs the past two years, and he owns a .298 career average. Unlike a lot of youngsters he also flashes solid strike zone control as evidenced by his .371 career OBP. I don’t think he should be looked at as a 20/20 guy like some hoped, or even a 15/15 guy, but at the same time I could see him hit .300-20-100-100-10 for about the next decade, and that is tremendous.

(5) Justin Upton won’t be 22 until August, and that guy has tons of talent. He is hitting nearly .300 with 13 steals, and the power should grow to the 30-HR level. I still see holes in that swing, and I worry about his brutal defense in the outfield, but he is already a great player, and one who could dominate for years.

(6) Matt Holliday has been awful for three months, and everyone has just forgotten about him. I’ve received a couple of emails the past few days asking me about his value. In fact, one of the emails said that a guy was trying really hard to get the suddenly hot Ryan Ludwick – and if he couldn’t he would try to get Holliday. What? Try to get Holliday as a fall back option? That sounds crazy. Seems to me that everyone has allowed three months of struggling to erase three years of superstar performance. I know he isn’t in Colorado anymore, but really, Ryan Ludwick? I don’t care if he ends up moving to another club or staying in Oakland. If the emails I have received recently are any indication of how Holliday is being viewed out there, I’m all over acquiring that guy at a major discount.

So what would I do? I would offer Hawpe and Chipper for Holliday and ??? – I’d ask for another part because as I stated, I bet Holliday’s current owner is so down on him that he would throw someone else in if it would mean ridding himself of the former Colorado great. If not, targeting Markakis or Upton would also make a lot of sense as they certainly possesses more fantasy upside than Hawpe ever will. Some might rank the guys Upton. Markakis, Holliday, but I have a lot of faith in Matt.

By Ray Flowers