Player Profile: Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer is a flame thrower for the Tigers who has had a difficult time early in his career flashing start to start consistency. That somewhat uneven effort has caused many to not look closely enough at his dynamic right wing. In what follows I’ll hope to be able to make the point that given his draft day cost that he is a hurler you should be targeting for inclusion on your fantasy squad (he’s barely being taken inside the top-20 at the starting pitching position).

REVIEW: 2008-09

Scherzer started out his big league career with the D’backs and over two seasons he was 9-15 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was a huge K arm though with an average of 9.54 punchouts per nine innings leading to a solid 2.86 K/BB ratio.

REVIEW: 2010

Max posted a career best set of ratios in 2010 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Oddly, his strikeout ratio dipped to 8.46 per nine though his walk rate continued to dwindle (3.22 per nine after seasons of 3.38 and 3.33).

REVIEW: 2011-12

This is when things started to take off for Scherzer. He won 31 games, more about that below, and he struck out an average of 9.53 batters per nine innings while dropping his walk rate to 2.73 per nine allowing his K/BB ratio to improve to an impressive level of 3.49 (that mark is 16th in baseball among hurlers who tossed 325 innings.).

THE 2012 RUN

In April last year Scherzer went 1-3 with a 7.77 ERA and 2.05 WHIP as batters hit an unconscionable .356 off him. Obviously the regression monster showed his face the rest of the season, and over the final five months of the year he was very, very good. Not just that, he was actually excellent.

Over his final 27 starts of 2012 Scherzer went 15-4, posted a 3.14 ERA, had a 1.16 WHIP, a 11.2 K/9 mark an a 4.34 K/BB ratio. Let’s compare that to the work of Justin Verlander last season.

Verlander: 17-8 (.680 WIN%), 9.0 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Scherzer: 15-4 (.789 Win%), 11.2 K/9, 4.34 K/BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Amazing how similar the two were in overall value if you remove April from Scherzer’s line, isn’t it?

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

THE STRIKEOUT

Scherzer isn’t just a dominating K arm, he’s a historically impressive one. Last season Scherzer struck out 231 batters in 187.2 innings. Since he failed to throw even 190 innings the K total hasn’t been viewed by many in the manner it should be cause he didn’t push 250 Ks. So here’s some context to help out.

(1) Only one man in baseball had more punchouts, and that was his teammate Justin Verlander who had 239 in 238.1 innings, or, 50.2 more innings pitched than Mad Max (I told myself I wasn’t going to use that term in this piece but I just couldn’t help myself). Fifty more innings than Scherzer folks. Think about that for a brief moment before moving on to #2.

(2) Scherzer’s K/9 mark was 11.08, the best in baseball. No one else even struck out 10.50 per nine (Yu Darvish was second at 10.40).

(3) Scherzer’s K/9 mark of 11.08 was historically impressive. Among all pitchers who have ever thrown 162 innings in a season, the number of innings needed to qualify for the ERA title, that 11.08 number has only been bettered 18 times – ever (the single season record is 13.41 by Randy Johnson in 2001 when he struck out 372 batters in 249.2 innings).

(4) Scherzer has thrown 804.2 innings in his career and has posted a 9.27 strikeout per nine mark. Among pitchers who have thrown 800 innings in their career that K/9 mark sits at 11th all-time. Eleventh.

The fact is that Scherzer is as dominating a strikeout arm as you are going to find among starting pitchers.

WINS

You all know my thoughts on wins, I don’t pay them much mind since so much goes into them beyond what the pitcher can control, but facts are facts, and the last two years Scherzer has been a big winner. The last two years Scherzer has won 31 games. That total of 31 wins is the 9th best mark in baseball (tied with James Shields, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels). Max is also one of just 10 hurlers who have won 15 games in each of the past two years.

OUTLOOK

Scherzer is as dominating an arm as there in baseball among starting hurlers. Yes there are some concerns about his ability to bring it start after start, but as I noted above he was pretty much nails after a rough April last year. If he can lock things in for six months, and stay healthy (the team is bringing him along slowly this spring), there’s a very real chance that he could post numbers that can rival those of his more celebrated rotation mate at a greatly reduced cost. Without question the risk is higher with Scherzer than Verlander, but given the draft day cost Scherzer profiles as the arm I would rather target in 2013.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Mock Draft: Talking Pitching Early

In fantasy baseball circles I’m known as the ‘anti-pitcher’ guy. I tell people all the time that in re-draft leagues there is no reason to take a pitcher at the top of a draft, and I practice what I preach (see how my staff turned out in the recent FSTA Experts Draft where I waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler). I know though that many others disagree with that line of thought. So for the sake of thoroughness and seeing both sides of the coin, I decided to flip my traditional script on its ear and go pitching early in a draft. Not only did I go pitching early, I went bonkers with pitching early.

I was invited by Cory Schwartz of MLB.com to participate in a 15 team mixed league (23 rounds with 14 hitters and nine pitchers, but no bench). I drew the 13th pick in the draft and thought, what the hell, I’m taking a hurler in the first round to see how my team would turn out since I know so many of you are drafting hurlers in the first round. I took Clayton Kershaw. When my second turn came up, pick #18 overall, guess which dominating righty was still available? If you said Justin Verlander you are correct. If you said that I did the unthinkable and took Verlander as well… you’d be right again. Not only did I blow past my ‘never take a pitcher in the first round’ strategy, I multiplied the pitching love by grabbing the top two arms in the game with my first two selections. How did my team turn out? Let’s take a look.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

C: Matt Wieters (6th round), John Jaso (17)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (4)
2B: Marco Scutaro (20)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (5)
SS: Alcides Escobar (11)
MI: Josh Rutledge (12)
CI: Adam LaRoche (14)
OF: Jay Bruce (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Carl Crawford (8), Shane Victorino (9), Nick Markakis (10)
UT: Brett Gardner (16)

STARTING PITCHERS: Clayton Kershaw (1), Justin Verlander (2), Tim Hudson (15), James McDonald (18), Wandy Rodriguez (19)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Jason Grilli (13), Sean Marshall (21), David Robertson (22), Bobby Parnell (23)

I certainly went as big as one could in the first two rounds on the hill, but then I didn’t take another arm until the 13th round, and my third starter didn’t come until the 15th (I would bet many who do go big early on pitching then sit back and wait to fill out their staff with the thought being that they got a stud or two early so now they can afford to wait). This was only a 23 round draft, there were no bench rounds, so you can be assured that at least two, possibly three, of my bench spots would have been devoted to starting pitchers to round out the group. Still, with the two best arms in baseball at the top, a strong ratio guy (Hudson), a potential 180 K guy (McDonald), and a cheap/solid arm (Wandy), I like this group given the constraints I was working under.

I also love my bullpen arms. You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray you only have one closer,’ and that’s fair, but look at those four arms. That quartet of relievers should be good for 10 strikeouts per nine innings. They are also likely to flat out kill it in ERA and WHIP. In fact, that foursome could very easily dust both Kershaw and Verlander in ERA, WHIP, K/9… and they have the chance to pick up a few saves as well. Basically, if everything goes according to plan, I’ll win Ks, ERA and WHIP. Wins, should be solid enough, and with an injury or poor performance here or there I could get some lucky saves love as well. Remember, only 23 round in this draft, so there would be plenty of time to add more depth to a unit that is filled with power arms in the reserve rounds.

So the staff is impressive. What about the offense, is it offensive like stinky cheese?

My duo at catcher is strong. In a 15 team league to get a duo that is capable of doing the things of Wieters and Jason – gotta like that.

A-Gone is about as good a bet to go .300 with 100 RBIs as any first baseman in baseball not named Pujols or Votto. Sandoval is a potential .300-25 guy at the other corner if he can avoid that third helping of plantains at dinner (his career bests would leave him with a .330-25-90 line). Up the middle I’ve got solid but boring Scutaro. He’s not likely to blow blast past .300 this year (see his Player Profile). Escobar is a solid add for the speed, but there are some questions about his overall game (see his Player Profile). At corner infield LaRoche is boring but does he ever put up numbers in the counting categories. Rutledge doesn’t have a big league season under his belt, but there’s 15/15 potential there.

The outfield is solid. I’ve got Bruce and Cruz for some pop, and then went all-around game with Crawford and Victorino. Questions abound about what Crawford has left to give, and if Victorino can hang on for another season (see his Player Profile), but if they are both healthy there no disputing that the results could potential lead to a bounty of offense. Markakis isn’t a big name, but since most of the big names went off the board while I was grabbing my two arms, he was a strong fallback play for my squad. Ditto on Gardner who people forget averaged 48 steals and 92 runs scored in 2010-11.

So to wrap it up. The offense has solid speed (Gardner, Escobar, Victorino and Crawford). There’s some decent pop but nothing over the top. I had to take chances on talent that was coming back from injury as the depressed value allowed the fellas to be available for me to roster well later than they would be if they were coming off a healthy 2012 (Sandoval, Crawford, Markakis, Gardner). If that foursome of players all play 150 games then this offense will be pretty decent for a 15 team league.

Is it a perfect team? No sir. Is it a solid enough team that I could compete with it? I think the answer is yes. However, there are certain health risks on offense, and how those players perform in 2013 will likely determine how this team will ultimately finish after I spent my top two picks on the best lefty-righty duo anyone in the fantasy game could put together in 2013..

For the full results click on the link to MLB.com Draft.

MLB.com_SlowDraft-RESULTS

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: November 19, 2012 – Awards

(1) Buster Posey the runaway winner of the NL MVP Award.

(2) Why did Miguel Cabrera dominate Mike Trout in AL MVP voting?

(3) Why did R.A. Dickey dominate in NL Cy Young Voting?

(4) David Price defeated Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver for the AL Cy Young.

(5) Bryce Harper narrowly edged Wade Miley for NL ROY.

(6) Mike Trout the 8th unanimous winner for AL ROY.

(7) Oddities in voting. Who are some of these voters?

BBWAA – Award Info.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

The MLB playoffs are just about ready to get underway, so baseball is on the cusp of starting its “second season.” Before we get there, let’s take a look back at the just completed regular season. I’ve found a few numbers there that are certainly worth taking note of.

How many players in baseball have gone 40-100 the past two years? The answer is one. He’s also the only player who has, obviously, gone 40-100-100. He’s also the only option in the game, redundancy anyone?, who has gone 40-100-100-10 the past two years. The answer is Curtis Granderson. Sure his average dropped to .232, and his OBP fell to .319, and those numbers aren’t good in any world, but he’s as impressive a counting number performer as there has been in baseball the past two years. Granderson is a faster version of Adam Dunn, you’ll just have to learn how to work around his so-so batting average (Granderson has hit .247 the past four years, so you shouldn’t have been shocked to see his .262 batting average from last season fall).

How many pitchers in the AL won 15 games while striking out 200 batters? You’ve got your standard in Justin Verlander (17, 239), and if you thought of Verlander you most likely also also hit on Max Scherzer (16, 231) who also led baseball with a K/9 mark of 11.08 (that mark allowed Scherzer to post the 19th best single season mark in the history of baseball for a pitcher who tossed at least 162 innings). Given that he is starting the AL Wild Card today you probably also thought of Yu Darvish (16, 221) who had a very successful first season in the States even if he walked too many batters (89 in 191.1 innings). Hopefully you also remember the guy who appears to have a strong shot to win the AL Cy Young Award, the man who tied Jered Weaver for the league lead in wins (20), and that is David Price. The Rays’ lefty won 20 games, struck out 205, posted a 2.56 ERA and had a 1.10 WHIP. So here’s the question. Who is the lone pitcher in the AL to win 15 games and strike out 200 batters who I didn’t mention? The answer can be found below.

Brandon Moss had an amazing run for the A’s to close the year that included a .690 SLG over his last 26 games. When the season was over he had accrued only 265 at-bats, but boy did he use them to great effect. Moss was a tremendous weapon for the A’s as he hit .291 on the year with a .358 OBP and .596 SLG. Moss also drove in 52 runners while scoring 48 times as he had a great season for a guy who struck out nearly a third of the time. The most amazing part of his effort? Let’s look to the home run. Moss hit 21 of them in just 296 plate appearances. No player has ever hit more than 21 homers in under 300 palte appearances. The others who have hit that mark are Art Shamsky (1966), Johnny Blanchard (1961), Kevin Maas (1990) and David Ross (2006). How about that?

The most dangerous “pull” hitter in baseball in 2012 was Giancarlo Stanton, and when you read the numbers I’m about to list your eyeballs might fall out of your head. Stanton hit .507 in the 140 at-bats in which he pulled the ball. That’s 71 hits in 140 at-bats folks. His SLG mark was 1.164. His slugging was 1.164. His OPS? Get out the video game. That number was 1.671. Stanton also hit 24 homers in at-bats when he “pulled” the ball. That number didn’t lead baseball though. The leader in “pull” home runs was none other than Mr. Curtis Granderson who had 37 homers in 201 at-bats.

ANSWER: The fifth pitcher in the Junior Circuit to pull off the 15-200 trick in 2012 is a teammate of one of the other four. Still not able to narrow it down? A hint. He struck out 15 batters in his final start of the season. That man is none other than James Shields who won 15 games with 223 Ks. Shields also won 16 games with 225 Ks last season. Why not keep the good times rolling? How many hurlers in baseball have won 15 games with 220 Ks each of the past two years? The answer is two – Verlander and Shields.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June19, 2012

(1) R.A. Dickey – is he the best pitcher in baseball?

(2) Mike Trout – is he the best player in fantasy baseball?

(3) Royals OF situation is muddled. When will we see Wil Myers?

(4) Josh Hamilton should return to starting lineup Tuesday.

(5) Jason Marquis, strikeout artist for Padres?

(6) Aaron Hill on fire of late. A top-10 2B?

(7) Astros coaching staff destroys Brett Myers with moronic usage.

(8) Mark Prior — he’s baaaack? Close to return for Red Sox?

By Ray Flowers

What We Learned

The regular season still hasn’t officially gotten underway for all the teams, great scheduling MLB, but that issue will finally be rectified Friday. We do have a fair number of baseball games in the books, so what did we learn that we might be able to apply to the world of fantasy baseball?

Jose Bautista already qualifies as a third baseman and outfielder. On opening day he also moved over to play first base after the Jays removed Adam Lind in favor of a pinch runner. It’s only one game, but it hints that Bautista just might play five or 10 games at the position this year, the threshold in many leagues for a player to pick up positional eligibility which would only further enhance his obvious value.

Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #1
Justin Verlander pitches eight scoreless innings and picked up a no-decision after Jose Valverde blew the save after not blowing a single one of his 49 opportunities last season. The guy who blew the game, Valverde, ended up with the victory when the Tigers came back to win. Remember what I always say about chasing victories? Or how about how I always say that you should never use a pitchers won-loss record as a judge of his performance? See what I’m saying?

Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #2
Jon Lester didn’t quite match Verlander Thursday, but he pitched very well allowing just one run in seven innings. He ended up with a no-decision when the Red Sox bullpen blew it. Mark Melancon ended up with the loss, but it was Alfredo Aceves who actually deserved the loss (for my thoughts on the Red Sox Bullpen see: Relievers, Wild, Wild, West). He came into the game, hit a batter, and then gave up the game winning hit. Still, Aceves escaped with an unblemished record despite not getting an out in the effort.

You’re daily talk about closers… the Royals settled on Jonathan Broxton as their lead man in the 9th inning. At one time one of my favorites, Broxton was amazing in 2009 when he won seven games, saved 36, posted a 2.61 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and had a dominating 13.50 K/9 mark. Seasons like that lead you to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately for Broxton, it’s his only season of more than 22 saves, and it was also the last time he was an effective big league pitcher. Over the last two seasons Broxton has been injured an just passable in terms of his production: 6-8, 4.32 ERA an a 1.55 WHIP. He still struck out 9.96 batters per nine innings, but he only threw 75 innings in the two seasons as he just couldn’t stay healthy. I can understand why the Royals went with him in the 9th, he has the most experience of their bullpen arms and could bring a nice return if moved at the trade deadline (he’s on a one year deal), but I’m still not convinced he is going to be able to hold off Greg Holland all year.

Josh Collmenter was lucky as all heck last year to post a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 154.1 innings. He didn’t strike anyone out (5.83 per nine), had a terrible GB/FB ratio (0.71) and seemingly got by mostly on his funky delivery. He looked lost all spring training and it won’t take much for the team to consider moving him to the bullpen, not with Trevor Bauer looking ready to give it a go in the majors. In his first start of the year at Double-A Bauer allowed just two hits and no runs, while striking out seven, in five innings.

Johnny Cueto ended last season with a 2.31 ERA but he threw only 156 innings falling short of qualifying for the NL ERA crown (a pitcher needs 162 innings). Well, he added to that excellence in his first start as he tossed seven shutout innings for the Reds. He induced 10 ground balls continuing a trend he started last season of generating a ton of ground balls. Speaking of the Reds, Aroldis Chapman looked completely dominating with two strikeout in a hitless 8th inning. When he is locating his pitches batters stand nary a chance of making hard contact.

Edinson Volquez allowed only three hits and two runs in five innings in his first start with the Padres. Unfortunately he picked up a loss as he walked four batters, including two with the bases loaded. All he needs to do is to throw strikes to be effective. The question is, can he?

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Starters

Following the simple methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me), in order to better understand which pitchers may possess the skills necessary to have success on a big league hill. Never heard of SWIP you say? Well I’m about to change that.

PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).

EXAMPLE

Mike Leake had 118 Ks and 38 BBs in 167.2 IP in 2011.
(118-38) / 167.2
80 / 167.2
0.48 SWIP

Leake’s SWIP for the 2011 season was therefore 0.48.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP).

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2011.

34,448 Strikeouts
15,018 Walks
43,527.1 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2011 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34448-15018) / 43527.1
19470 / 43527.1
0.4473
SWIP = 0.45

Last year’s 0.45 mark is a major league best in the 21st century as the rate keeps inching upward.

2011: 0.45 SWIP
2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP

Here are some notes on the pitchers who tossed at least 160-innings last year.

Here are the leaders for the 2011 season (minimum 162 innings)

0.91 – Zack Greinke
An elite K-arm last season, Greinke led all starting pitchers with a 10.54 K/9 mark, and he walked about a batter fewer, per nine innings, than the average big league arm (2.36 BB/9).

0.84 – Cliff Lee
When you strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.12 per nine), and walk only 1.62 per nine, you are an elite performer.

0.83 – Clayton Kershaw
Massive Ks are his calling card, and last season he walked a mere 2.08 batters per nine.

0.79 – Roy Halladay
Concerns about his velocity in spring notwithstanding, the guy just doesn’t beat himself (1.35 walks per nine).

0.75 – Justin Verlander
Huge arm, huge K totals and a better than expected walk rate (2.04 per nine).

0.71 – Yovani Gallardo, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner
A young K artist, the most consistent lefty in the game, and a young lefty from the NL West.

Some names that stood out, for good or bad.

0.62 – Tim Lincecum
A four year low in K/9 coupled with a four year high in BB/9 has his SWIP headed in the wrong direction.

0.56 – Ted Lilly
Always overlooked on draft day. Lilly simply goes out, doesn’t beat himself, and always seems to strike out more batter than people realize.

0.52 – Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain
Two young arms who ply their trade in the Bay Area. Gio G is the higher upside K artist, but Cain’s ability to walk fewer batters has them tied in this measure.

0.43 – Edwin Jackson
What a shock. Edwin Jackson being average at something (recall that the big league average was 0.45 in 2011).

0.25 – Ivan Nova
I wrote about Nova in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

0.24 – Jeremy Hellickson
I wrote about Hellickson in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

Tomorrow I’ll discuss those pitchers who didn’t throw than 160 innings in 2011, and I’ll also have the entire list of hurlers who threw at least 40 innings ranked by their SWIP marks.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Win Shares: 2011 Leaders

I know that no one reads anymore. In fact, I’m positive about that fact. I cannot tell you how many times a day the following occurs at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page.

I post a tweet. Example. “Albert Pujols is being paid $250 million over the next three years. Is he worth it? www. Pujols-Making…” So my sentence describes what I’m talking about, and then the link takes readers to the full story. Should be pretty simple, right? Someone then replies to me ‘will Pujols’ new home in California hurt his homer output?’ Why is that question a problem?

Because it clearly points out that the person didn’t bother to click on the link which, for three paragraphs, describes the impact that the Angels park could have on Pujols’ power. You think this is me just being me and bitching about something that rarely occurs? Not at all. This happens to me at least 3-5 times every single day. At least. People just don’t read anymore.

So why do I bring that up the fact that people hate to read? Because I’m going to trust that if you’ve gotten this far that you are one of those rare people that actually understands the value of reading something and not just scanning over it for 10 seconds (plus I just had to vent, sorry about that). I wrote about Wins Shares last year in Win Shares: 2010 Leaders, I’m merely going to quote myself in what follows for the description of what Wins Shares is (I know that’s lazy, but I did such a spectacular job last year, why mess with perfection?). Do I need a citation for my own words? Jeez, it’s been a while since college.

WHAT ARE WIN SHARES?

Win Shares attempts to measure how many wins a hitter or pitcher has personally notched for his team in the standings. Win Shares puts all players on one continuum meaning hitters and pitchers are all lumped together.

Win Shares are handed out based on a players impact at helping his team win games. Unlike other new-school stats, Win Shares look quite explicitly at the standings. The team’s number of Win Shares is equal to its win total times three. Eighty team wins gives 240 win shares to be spread amongst people on that team. Therefore, it doesn’t matter if a player is on a team that wins 95 or 75 games – they should still be rewarded in an equitable manner.

Win Shares is complicated to figure out, and has negatives. Bill James, the creator, realized some limitations in Win Shares and later invented “Loss Shares” because Wins Shares are only positive. Win Shares has also been replaced in most people’s minds by a measure like WAR (Wins Above Replacement level), but Win Shares was the first systematic attempt to put all aspects of baseball performance into one number that really caught on (James wrote about it in Win Shares, a massive 728 page book that was published in 2002).

To put the numbers you are about to review in context, here is a brief key for seasonal performance.

All-Star: 20+ Win Shares

MVP Level: 30+

Historic level: 40+

With that brief lead in, here are the 2011 leaders according to Win Shares.

2011 LEADERS – HITTERS

38 – Miguel Cabrera
37 – Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp
36 – Jose Bautista
34 – Jacoby Ellsbury
33- Prince Fielder, Joey Votto,
30 – Lance Berkman, Robinson Cano
29 – Miguel Montero
28 – Ben Zobrist and Andrew McCutchen

2011 LEADERS – PITCHERS

27 – Justin Verlander
24 – Jered Weaver
23 – Clayton Kershaw
22 – Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee
20 – James Shields, Ricky Romero, C.J. Wilson, Ian Kennedy
19 – CC Sabathia
18 – Dan Haren, Doug Fister
17 – Craig Kimbrel, Cole Hamels

By Ray Flowers

A History Lesson

Johnny Damon is a free agent, and though he hit just .261 with a .326 OBP he still has value as a player. The soon to be 38 year old had 16 homers, 73 RBI, 79 runs scored and 19 steals. Thanks to the 19 steals this year he’s now stolen at least 11 bases each of the past 16 seasons. That’s tied for the 5th longest streak ever (Rickey Henderson did it 23-straight years). Damon also appeared in 150 games, the 16th straight season he has been on the field at least 141 times, an all-time major league record. Three others have previously accomplished that feat – Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose. Damon also finished the year with 2,723 hits leaving him 277 away from the magical total of 3,000, a total only 27 men have ever reached. Could he possibly, one day, find himself enshrined in Cooperstown?

How good is CC Sabathia? Over the past five seasons he’s averaged 19 victories, 217 Ks, a 3.09 ERA, a 1,16 WHIP and 240 innings pitched a season. Moreover, that inning pitched total leads baseball, it’s 4.1 more innings than Roy Halladay, and his 1,084 strikeouts leave him behind only Tim Lincecum who has 1,127 (Justin Verlander also had 1,084).

I was listening to AC/DC’s Back in Black today. That’s still one hell of an album.

The White Sox drafted Chris Sale to be a starting pitcher. However, as many teams do anymore, they rushed him to the big leagues because of his arm. Knowing full well he wasn’t ready to start, they asked him to pitch out the bullpen, and through 79 appearances covering 94.1 innings he has been a dynamic option with a K/9 of 10.59, an ERA of 2.58 and a WHIP of 1.10. The decision for the team at this point is what do they do for 2012 – do they leave him in the pen where has dominated or move him to the rotation? To me, 200 innings as a strong starter is more valuable than 75 innings as a dominant reliever, but that’s just me. For more on the decision making process see No Decisions on White Sox Sale’s Role Just Yet.

Am I the only one that’s feeling a tinge of depression with the regular season over? The playoffs are great, but nothing beats following “your“ team, and if they aren’t still playing it rings a bit hollow doesn’t it? I mean, even if “your” team stinks during the year you’ve still got your fantasy baseball squad to follow.

David Wright had scored at least 87 runs in each of the last six seasons. He scored 60 in 2011. Wright had hit at least 26 homers in five of the past six years. He hit 14 this season. Wright had driven in at least 102 runs in five of the past six years. He drove in 61 in 2011. He simply didn’t square the ball up enough on the year as he had a line drive rate of 18.0 percent. Not only was that a career worst mark, it was also 4.5 percent below his 22.5 percent career mark. That’s a massive dip. As a result of fewer line drives he also saw his BABIP dip. Wright had never posted a mark under .321 in a season of 300 at-bats, and this season his mark was .302, some .038 points below his career mark. I’d expect him to rebound in 2011, especially if he gets out of New York, but you have to be worried about his inability to adjust this season and the mounting injuries.

By Ray Flowers

Misery Loves Company

I know everyone is doing it, and while I’m not a follower – never have been – I felt the need to write the obligatory article dealing with the two massive collapses authored by the Red Sox and the Braves.

THE RED SOX

On September 1st the Sox led the AL East by 1.5 games over the Yankees, and they were nine games ahead of the Rays. The Sox maintained that nine game lead over the Rays as late as September 3rd. They proceeded to go 6-18 from that point forward to becomes the first time in the history of the game to squander a nine game September lead. “I’m devastated. I’m heartbroken,” Dustin Pedroia said. “To play hard for 161 games like we have and have it end like this…”

Why did they collapse? The offense was fine down the stretch, but it was the pitching that let them down. The Red Sox starters posted an ERA of 7.08 for the month of September.

THE BRAVES

If not for the Red Sox collapse, the Braves flop would be considered the worst in the history of the game.

On August 26th the Braves had a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals.
On September 5th the Braves had an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals.

You can blame injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, the Braves #2 and #3 starters, and no one could honestly claim that wasn’t a huge hole to fill. But still, going 9-18 including a 5-game losing streak to end the season? You just witnessed the greatest collapse in the history of the National League. “I can’t fathom it,” Freddie Freeman said.

Pitiful.

ROTATION QUESTION

You tell me, which rotation would you rather face this postseason?

Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter
Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders
CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

OR

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner

Who out there isn’t thanking the baseball gods for not having to face the Giants top-3 in the playoffs this year?

CHEERS TO

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins (24), ERA (2.40) and strikeouts (250) to capture the Pitcher’s Triple Crown.

Clayton Kershaw led the National League in wins (21 to tie with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). I’m going to give him the NL Triple Crown as well even though he tied for the league lead in wins.

BOOS TO

I know it’s a 162 game season, and that Jose Reyes had 537 at-bats on the year so it’s not really fair to call him out for one game, but it was weak sauce that he bunted for a hit in his first at-bat and then pulled himself from his final game to win the NL batting title over Ryan Braun (it ended up being a .337 to .332 race). For the story of how a real man does it, make sure you click on the link to the story about Ted Williams final day in 1941.

By Ray Flowers