Around the Horn: Jan.29, 2010

Which baseball players are in the news as we head toward the weekend? Glad you asked.

(1) Mike Wuertz re-signs with A’s. (2) Jermaine Dye turns down Cubs. (3) Orlando Hudson still negotiating with the Nationals – still. (4) Orlando Cabrera likely to sign with Reds or Rockies. (5) Justin Verlander talking 5-years with Tigers. (6) Eric Byrnes signs with Mariners. (7) Dustin McGowan’s shoulder doing well. (8) Johnny Damon still homeless.

By Ray Flowers

The AL Cy Young Race

Yesterday I tackled the NL Cy Young Race, so for the purpose of symmetry it only made sense that I would address the AL situation. Being someone who likes a completed circle as much as the next guy, here is my take on the Junior Circuit’s race for the top pitcher of the year award.

While there were three men up for the award in the NL, I see a field of five men vying for the award this season in the AL. I’ll give each guys numbers and then add a few thoughts why the are deserving, and not deserving, of the award.

Zack Greinke
16-8, 2.16 ERA, 242 K 1.07 WHIP in 229.1 IP
Reasons for: Led the AL In ERA and WHIP while finishing second in Ks, fifth in IP and second in batting average against (.230). Also posted a tremendous 4.75 K/BB mark. He also showed an amazing ability to remain consistent posting virtually identical numbers before (2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) and after (2.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) the All-Star game.

Reasons against: He won only 16 games for a team that won only 65 contests.

Roy Halladay
17-10, 2.79 ERA, 208 K, 1.13 WHIP in 239 IP
Reasons for: Third in the league in ERA and second in WHIP. Halladay was also second in innings (one behind Verlander), though he still led the circuit in complete games (nine) and shutouts (four). That total of CGs is more than the total of seven posted by Verlander, Sabathia and Hernandez. He had a hiccup in August (2-4, 4.71 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) but was great in September (4-2, 1.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP).

Reasons against: His team wasn’t as bad as Greinke’s Royals, but the Jays won just 75 games. Plus, as good as his numbers were, there were others who were better in almost all categories except for CGs.

Felix Hernandez
19-5, 2.49 ERA, 217 K, 1.14 WHIP in 238.2 IP
Reasons for: Tied for the league lead with 19 victories and finished third in innings pitched. Pretty quietly he also came in second in ERA, third in WHIP and fourth in strikeouts while leading the league with a .227 BAA. Was also fantastic in both the first (9-3, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and second (10-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) half.

Reasons against: No one ever sees him pitch since he is on the Mariners. Will he be punished because his team was barely better than average (85 victories) and because people on the east coast rarely stay up late enough to watch him pitch?

CC Sabathia
19-8, 3.37 ERA, 197 K, 1.15 WHIP in 230 IP
Reasons for: Pitches for the Yankees and lead the league with 19 victories. Third in the league in BAA (.232), fourth in ERA, fourth in WHIP and seventh in strikeouts.

Reasons against: Sure he led the league in victories and gave the Yankees all they hoped for when they back up the money truck, but his numbers, other than the wins, just don’t measure up to the others.

Justin Verlander
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 269 K, 1.18 WHIP in 240 IP
Reasons for: Led the majors with 269 Ks while his innings pitched total also paced all of baseball. He was also very effective in both the first (10 wins, 3.39 ERA, 1.19 WHP) and second half (nine wins, 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) showing season long dominance.

Reasons against: Had a great bounce back season and no one was more dominating, but at the same time his ratios were a bit behind the others.

So how do I rank these guys? Just like in the NL, I think the choice is obvious.

5. Sabathia – Too much attention given to wins and being a Yankee.
4. Verlander – Ks and innings are great, but not good enough.
3. Halladay – He was a lot better than most give him credit for.
2. Hernandez – In many other years he would be the choice.
1. Greinke – The most dominating hurler in the league, period.

By Ray Flowers

Greinke for Cy

I’m sure I will address this issue in more depth as we move forward, perhaps in an even longer piece if the people who vote on the end of the year awards vote as I fear that they will. But the bottom line, no matter how you break this thing down, the answer is always the same: there is only one option for the AL Cy Young award, and his name is Zack Greinke of the Royals.

Here is what I know, the irrefutable data that we have to review.

(1) Greinke leads the AL in ERA at 2.14. In fact, he leads baseball with that mark (Tim Lincecum leads the NL at 2.30).

Since 2000, do you know how many AL hurlers have produced an ERA below 2.20? Try one, and that was Pedro Martinez in 2000 when he posted a 1.74 ERA in one of the greatest performances in the modern era. Moreover, since 1980 only two AL hurlers who qualified for the ERA crown have posted a better ERA, Pedro (he also had a 2.07 marl in 1999) and Roger Clemens (1.93 in 1990, 2.05 in 1997).

(2) Greinke leads the AL with a 1.06 WHIP. CC Sabathia is second with a 1.13 mark.

(3) Greinke is second in the AL with 224 Ks, in just 210.1 innings mind you, good for a 9.58 K/9 mark (Justin Verlander leads the way with a total of 239 punchouts).

(4) Greinke is third in the AL in innings pitched with those 210.1 innings (Roy Halladay has tossed 214 innings, Sabathia 213.1).

(5) Greinke has tossed six complete games. Only one other AL hurler has thrown more than four, and that is the league leader Roy Halladay who has tossed seven.

(6) Only four times in his 30 trips to the hill has Greinke failed to last six innings in an outing. Think about that. Eighty-seven percent of the time when he has taken the hill he has gone at least six innings. The four times he failed to he still pitched five innings. Moreover, Greinke has tossed 24 quality starts, the second best mark in the AL behind Felix Hernandez.

So to review, Greinke is first in ERA and WHIP, second in strikeouts, third in innings, second in complete games and second in quality starts. And you think someone else deserves to be the AL Cy Young winner?

As I started with off the top, hopefully the guys that vote for the award don’t say ‘yeah, that’s great, but he only has 14 victories’ and vote for someone else. At least it doesn’t look like anyone is going to hit the 20 victory plateau and that should help. Newsflash guys, wins are a horrific way to judge a pitchers effort. I can’t even believe I still have to say that, but some people still don’t seem to get it.

How do I handicap the race? Here are my top-5 with a couple of weeks left.

5 – Roy Halladay. If not for his struggles in August (2-4, 4.71 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) he would likely be vying for the second spot.

4 – CC Sabathia. He leads the league in wins (17) while posting a tremendous set of overall numbers: 3.42 ERA, 178 Ks, 1.13 WHIP in 213.1 innings.

3 – Justin Verlander. A bit more dominating than Sabathia with his league leading 239 Ks, Verlander also has a slightly better ERA (3.34) while posting a strong WHIP (1.17).

2 – Felix Hernandez. Another unsung hero. Hernandez is second in the league with an ERA of 2.52, fourth in K (193), fifth in WHIP (1.15) and fifth in innings pitched (207.1).

1 – Zack Greinke. You read about why this guy should be the clear cut winner above despite having “only” 14 wins.

One last note. ESPN has a tool called the Cy Predictor, and while I frequently disagree with things that are spoken or written about at ESPN, I have to admit that it looks like they got it right this time as Greinke leads their list as well.

By Ray Flowers