The Strikeout: Relievers
We all love the strikeout. There is nothing more exciting than seeing a hurler unleash a 98 mph heater that a batter has no chance to catch up to as he swings feebly before heading back to the bench with his head down. Yesterday in The Strikeout: Starters, I touched on my overall thoughts about how to understand and evaluate the strikeout, while focusing on which starting pitchers might be undervalued entering the 2011 season. Today, in the same vein, I’ll break down which relievers appear lined up for solid fantasy efforts in the coming campaign even if they currently don’t appear headed for 9th inning work (remember, it often makes sense to targets skills over role).
Relief Pitchers
No discussion about relievers could begin anywhere else than the Cubs’ closer, Carlos Marmol. In a season unmatched in the annals of the game, Marmol had 138 strikeouts in in 77.2 innings. That K-rate equates to a K/9 mark of 15.99, and that is the best mark in baseball history of any pitcher who threw at least 50 innings, one full batter better Eric Gagne’s 14.98 mark in 2003. In fact, so great was Marmol’s K-rate that his total of 138 Ks was better than the marks posted by the following starting pitchers:
Derek Lowe 136 in 193.2 IP
Joe Blanton 134 in 175.2 IP
Jaime Garcia 132 in 163.1 IP
Fausto Carmona 124 in 2101. IP
Bronson Arroyo 121 in 215.2 IP
Since we’re focusing on relievers in this piece, not starters with moderate K-totals, here’s a list of the top pitchers in baseball last season in K/9 amongst those that tossed a minimum of 50-innings.
15.99 Carlos Marmol
13.50 Billy Wagner
12.92 Joel Hanrahan
12.85 Rafael Betancourt
12.18 Stephen Strasburg
12.02 Matt Thornton
11.79 John Axford
11.50 Takashi Saito
11.45 Carlos Villanueva
11.21 Brian Wilson
11.19 Joaquin Benoit
11.08 Tyler Clippard
11.06 Heath Bell
10.95 Hong-Chih Kuo
10.95 Brandon Morrow
10.87 Ryan Madson
10.85 Sean Marshall
10.83 J.J. Putz
10.55 Octavio Dotel
10.54 Jonathan Broxton
10.52 Francisco Rodriguez
10.42 Bobby Jenks
10.42 David Robertson
10.25 Frank Francisco
10.23 Luke Gregerson
Only two starters are on this list – Stephen Strasburg and Brandon Morrow (you can read more about Morrow in the starters piece linked to at the top of this piece).
Evaluating Relievers
A couple of weeks back in How to Evaluate Relievers I gave some simple “rules” to use when looking at bullpen arms. In that piece I listed the 17 relief arms that tossed at least 60-innings last season with a K/9 of at 7.50 and a BB/9 mark under 3.00. Some of the names were likely fairly obvious, but others certainly weren’t. Here is that list again.
Casey Janssen
Matt Thornton
Sean Burnett
Rafael Soriano
Joaquin Benoit
Luke Gregerson
Joakim Soria
Neftali Feliz
Darren Oliver
Kyle Farnsworth
Edward Mujica
Matt Belise
Billy Wagner
Sergio Romo
Rafael Betancourt
Hong-Chih Kuo
Joba Chamberlain
What follows are my thoughts on some of the less than obvious names on that list. Remember, we are focused on the strikeout in this piece, but that doesn’t mean we want to neglect the walk as all the K’s in the world don’t mean a heck of a lot if a pitcher is walking every third batter.
Rafael Betancourt: In 2010 this Rockies’ reliever had a 12.85 K/9, and a 11.13 K/BB – marks that would make any pitcher who has ever tossed the ball blush. Rafael has 497.1 IP in his career leaving him 2.2 innings from becoming the ONLY man in history with a 9.50 K/9 mark and a 4.35 K/BB in 500 career innings (his career marks are 9.53 and 4.36).
Edward Mujica: I already broke down his historically significant effort of last season when he became one of just the fourth man in the history of the game to do something that will blow your mind. If you want to know what he accomplished take a look at Radiant Relievers.
Darren Oliver: He is old, boring and never drafted except in league specific scenarios. Still he has a two year average of 8.69 in the K/9 department and a 3.51 K/BB ratio. There are worse options to round out a bullpen in league specific set ups.
Kyle Farnsworth: The potential closer for the Rays over guys like Jake McGee and Joel Peralta, Farnsworth owns a career 9.04 K/9, but walks are usually a concern (his career K/BB ratio is 2.33). Still, he has done a better job the past two years throwing strikes leading to a 3.12 K/BB ratio in that time.
Matt Belise: Given that he owns a career 6.64 K/9 mark his rate of 8.90 last year was a bit surprising. Already 30 years old, did it just take him a while to put it all together? After all, his K/BB ratio the past two seasons has been special (4.40 and 5.69).
Joba Chamberlain: In many ways Joba out-pitched Daniel Bard in 2010 (you can read about that comparison in Hot Stove: The Arms Race). Of course, there are now reports that Joba gained weight this offseason, and not in a good way, and that his roster spot could be in jeopardy. With Rafael Soriano in the mix, the best Joba could hope for to start the year is the 7th inning gig, and that pretty much tanks his fantasy outlook.
And finally…
Craig Kimbrel: Kimbrel is kind of cheating since he didn’t reach the threshold of 60-innings for the above list. Still, when you strike out 17.42 batters per nine innings you get a mention, even if you only pitched 20.2 innings. Moreover, that mark of 17.42 per nine is the highest mark in history of baseball for at least 20 IP (the next highest mark is Marmol’s 15.99). Be careful though as Kimbrel also walked a sickening total of 6.97 per nine. To compare, his minor league numbers include a K/9 of 14.42 K/9 and a BB/9 of 5.66. Still, he is slated to open the year as the Braves’ closer.
By Ray Flowers
