Draft Day Challenge, May 28

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Yadier Molina
2. Victor Martinez

Molina has six hits, five RBIs and four runs scored his last three games as he’s pushed his average up to .346. He’s also hitting .363 on the road this year and has hit .330 in 29 games against the Royals.

V-Mart is 1-for-2 against Jeanmar Gomez and he’s hit .042 points higher this year vs. right-handed pitching (.259). Martinez is also hitting .345 over the past week with five RBIs.

FIRST BASE
1. Adrian Gonzalez
2. Mike Napoli

AGone faces Mr. Blanton Tuesday, and you can read about Joe B’s struggles below. Gonzalez is hitting .368 with two homers in 19 at-bats against Blanton, and Adrian is hitting .435 with two homers and eight RBIs the past week.

Napoli has a difficult matchup against the Phillies’ Lee, but he’s hit .313 against him in 16 at-bats. He’s also knocked in 20 runners in just 103 at-bats at home this season.

SECOND BASE
1. Kelly Johnson
2. Marco Scutaro

Johnson is crushing it to the tune of a .471 average the past seven days and he has two homers and seven RBIs the past two games. He’s also managed two hits in four ABs against Mr. Slowey and he’s batting .317 in home games this season.

Scutaro has hit .323 on the season and he’s batting .325 on the road. He faces Jarrod Parker, who he is 0-for-3 against, but Parker has bombed at home this season with a 7.43 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over five starts.

THIRD BASE
1. Josh Donaldson
2. David Wright

Donaldson is batting .318 at home with a .947 OPS and has hit .337 with a 1.036 OPS and six bombs in 24 May games. He faces rookie Mike Kickham.

Wright is hitting .353 in 17 at-bats against Hiroki Kuroda but it should be noted that he has hit only .234 with one homer in 94 at-bats at home this season.

SHORTSTOP
1. Everth Cabrera
2. J.J. Hardy

Hardy has hit in 6-straight games as he’s driven in five runs. He’s slated to face rookie Nate Karns Tuesday.

Cabrera has scored four runs in his last four games while driving in five runs. He’s also hitting .296 on the road this season, has hit .304 against the Mariners in his career and has at least two hits in five of his last nine games on the year.

OUTFIELD
1. Andre Ethier
2. Raul Ibanez

Ethier was recently called out by his manager, and he’s found himself on the bench a couple of times. Still, he faces Joe Blanton who has allowed an unfathomable 93 hits in 56.2 innings. Ethier is also 7-for-17 (.412) with two homers against the righty.

Ibanez has a .868 OPS with seven bombs in 87 at-bats against righties. He faces Edinson Volquez who has a 6.08 ERA and 1.76 WHIP, not to mention a terrible 1.00 K/BB ratio, in five road starts.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Cliff Lee
2. Zach McAllister
3. Jeremy Hellickson
4. Kevin Gausman

Lee has a 2.48 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the year, and he’s allowed two runs in his last three outings. He’s also gone at least seven inning in 4-straight starts and he’s the owner of a 4-1 record, 1.60 ERA and 0.82 WHIP on the road this season. He travels to Boston to take on the Red Sox.

McAllister has a 2.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP for the Indians and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in all nine of his starts this year. He does have a 3.97 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road, so traveling to Cincy to take on the Reds isn’t likely to be a cakewalk.

Hellickson has been all over the place this season. Still, he has a 1.21 WHIP and 50 Ks in 63.2 innings. The Marlins, you may have heard, suck. They’ve gone 1-8 with 17 runs scored in that time.

Gausman faces a Nationals team that has hit .221 while averaging 3.0 runs over the past 15 games. He has the talent to keep those struggles going.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 18

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Mike Napoli
2. John Buck

Napoli has never faced Zach McAllister before. However, Napoli is second in baseball with 14 RBIs against right-handed pitchers, two less than Miguel Cabrera.

Oh hell, just start Buck. The snow seems to have finally stopped in Colorado and the guys is batting .326 on the year. But be warned… he’s hitting .214 the past week and he’s hit only .238 against John Garland in his career (and yes, I know he’s not eligible for daily games since his game time is early in the day).

FIRST BASE
1. Nick Swisher
2. Paul Konerko

Swisher is trending right now and he’s got a strong matchup to keep it going. Swisher has hit .326 with an OPS over 1.000 in 46 at-bats against Jon Lester. Two homers and eight RBIs are a nice sweeter.

Konerko has four hits, including two homers, in 10 at-bats against R.A. Dickey. He’s also batting .360 with two homers, six RBIs and six runs scored the past seven days.

SECOND BASE
1. Neil Walker
2. Kelly Johnson

Slow start be damned, Walker has kicked things up a notch the past week with 10 hits in 22 at-bats leading to a .455 average and six RBIs.

Johnson, like Walker, is cranking things up. He’s only had 13 at-bats, but he’s gone for four hits, a .308 average, and he’s gone deep twice for the Rays in that time.

THIRD BASE
1. Ty Wigginton
2. Chris Johnson

Wigginton has been terrible this season when called upon with two hits in 13 at-bats. He may not even play tonight. Still, he likes facing Cole Hamels whom he has five hits against in nine at-bats.

Johnson faces lefty Jeff Locke. He’s 0-for-1 against the youngster, but he is hitting .438 with a homer in 16 at-bats against lefties this season and he’s also hitting .409 overall.

SHORTSTOP
1. Cliff Pennington
2. Jimmy Rollins

Pennington is 4-for-8 with a homer and four RBIs against Phil Hughes. Cliff is also seeing regular work with the D’backs, even if the effort thus far hasn’t been overly exciting (zero HR/SB in 51 at-bats). Hey, there aren’t that many games tonight.

Rollins has one hit in 18 at-bats the past week. He’s only hitting .232 on the season. So why am I noting him here? He’s actually had success against Adam Wainwright with a .350 average in 20 at-bats.

OUTFIELD
1. Gerardo Parra
2. Garrett Jones

Parra faces right Phil Hughes, a hurler he has never seen before, but Parra has had a lot of success against righties this year. In 40 such at-bats Parra is batting .375 with a homer, a triple and five doubles.

Jones doesn’t have a single at-bat against a lefty this year, but that’s fine since he has hit .325 against righties. He faces Julio Teheran of the Braves. He’s right-handed.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Sale
2. Patrick Corbin
3. Mike Gonzalez
4. Tony Cingrani

The Blue Jays have managed a mere .250 average and just one RBI in 12 at-batsm agianst the lefty. Sale hasn’t had as much success in his career on the road, but he’s still been good away from Chicago (3.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 147 IP).

Corbin is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the young season. He’s gone six innings in each outing, and today he faces a Yankees club that is dealing with all kinds of injuries, so the matchup isn’t anywhere near as bad as it might sound like when you first hear it.

Gonzalez has tossed two quality starts in his two outings this season, though eight strikeouts and seven walks ain’t exactly great. The Rays are the lowest scoring team in the AL right now, so the matchup isn’t unappealing.

For more of my thoughts on Cingrani, see my Rounding the Bases column. Oh, he’s facing the pathetic Marlins as well.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 2, 2013

(1) Talk about the 2013 fantasy baseball season, LABR, Tout, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.

(2) Carlos Gomez overdrafted in 2013?

(3) Players who very well could exceed their draft day cost:

C Jason Castro, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Kelly Johnson, 3B Manny Machado, SS Stephen Drew, OF Michael Brantley, OF Chris Young, OF Justin Maxwell, OF Franklin Gutierrez

SP James McDonald, SP Edinson Volquez, SP Vance Worley, RP Jake McGee, RP Mike Adams, RP Rhiner Cruz.

By Ray Flowers

AL LABR 2013

Phoenix Arizona.

Not many fantasy baseball leagues mean more than LABR in the world of fantasy sports. Started by John Hunt 20 years ago, it was the first exposure many of us had to fantasy baseball, at least the first chance to really dig into the mind of the experts in the field to find out why they did what they did on draft day (for more on the history of the event see Steve Gardner’s wonderful piece). I’m honored that I’ve been asked to be a part of the event.

Last year, despite drafting a team that was literally called the worst of all-time by everyone, I ended up being tied for first place in the last week of the season before eventually finishing in 2nd place to Steve Moyer. That was in the NL though. This year I was moved over the the AL. How did my team turn out? I think it looks better on paper than the club I rostered last year. Time will tell.

12 team AL-only
$260
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (the reserves are chosen via a snake draft)

C: Derek Norris ($2), Hector Gimenez (2)
1B: Eric Hosmer (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (29)
3B: Kevin Youkilis (11)
SS: Ben Zobrist (25)
MI: Howie Kendrick (18)
CI: Josh Donaldson (6)
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (24), Nick Swisher (18), Chris Young (11), Drew Stubbs (13), Nate McLouth (4)
UT: Kelly Johnson (10)

PITCHERS: Sergio Santos (8), Grant Balfour (12), James Shields (20), C.J. Wilson (10), Chris Archer (4), Jeff Niemann (4), Joe Blanton (3), Joel Peralta (3), Ubaldo Jimenez (1)

BENCH: Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Michael Pineda, Jimmy Paredes, Marwin Gonzalez, Quintin Berry

My catchers are weak – the down unit of what just might be an impressive offense. I refused to pay $10 for Jason Castro or $13 for Alex Avila (14 catchers went for double-digits. Crazy).

Hosmer went for only $1 less than Mark Teixeira, but I felt like the youngster, who I’ve touted many times before, has a chance to rebound to his 2011 levels, and then some if it all clicks. At third I rostered Kevin Youkilis, another one of “my guys” this year. You may not love him but at $11 I think it’s hard to find fault with his addition (Mitch Moreland went for $10). At corner, I’ve got Donaldson. He’s got legit power. I’ve been telling folks to think Casey Blake like levels of production if he gets 500 at-bats.

I went second base crazy. It was not a plan. I targeted Pedroia as the big dollar guy I wanted. I wanted also to grab Howie Kendrick as a strong MI option. Mission accomplished. The Johnson pick was the one I look at on offense and say – maybe/maybe not. If he goes 16/13 as he has each of the last three years, only he and Brandon Phillips can say they have done that at second base, I’ll be fine with the $10 bid. Oh, an I also grabbed my main man, Zobrist, who qualifies at second, shortstop and outfield.

Ellsbury could be the steal of the draft — IF he plays 140 games. I backed off Yoenis Cespedes at $29. Desmond Jennings at $26 was too steep too. I went to $26 on Austin Jackson before he eventually went for $27. Licking my wounds, I got Ellsbury with the next selection directly after AJax… for $24, only one dollar more than Nick Markakis and eight less than Jose Bautista. Young and Stubbs are risks, but it’s an AL-only league. Those two guys could hit 40 homers and steals 50 bags. Hey, it’s possible. Swisher is boring, but boring and stable is fine in this format. McLouth had a nice finishing kick last year, Nolan Reimold is always hurt, and Wilson Betemit is currently the Orioles DH. Sounds like McLouth could get plenty of playing time.

On the hill…

I got Shields to be my horse. I was waiting, and waiting and waiting on Scherzer. When he was finally brought up, I had to pass. I pushed the bidding up to $24, but bowed out when he went for $25 (he was the last big arm left which inflated his cost significantly). I then settled on Brandon Morrow as my fall back #2 starter – until his price soared to $19. Luckily I was able to get Wilson shortly thereafter, for only $10 mind you, and with his elbow apparently sound that was a great pick given the cost of the two righties that went right before him. I rounded out the rotation with Niemann and Blanton, two stable and cheap commodities, and took a shot on the young but oh so talented Archer for just $4. Finally, my last starter was Jimenez, an as my lone $1 player, why not?

In the pen, things were pricey. I struck early with Santos and Balfour – a power duo with some minor health concern woes, that cost me $20. For reference, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan went for $18 a piece. I also added the elite arm of Peralta. In the reserve rounds I added two potential closers in Wilson and Valverde. If one of those guys becomes a closer and gives me, say, 15 saves this year, I’m in great shape and I won’t have to blow a third of my FAAB budget chasing saves.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I like the club. I’ve got Youkilis, Zobrist, Swisher for some positional flexibility. I’ve got speed across the board (Stubbs might be my only 30 SB option, but look at all the guys with 15 SB potential). I’ve also got a solid group of potential 15-25 homer guys. The batting average won’t be great, but the counting numbers should be solid.

The pitchers I like as well. Power arms in the pen (Peralta is a power arm out of the pen to augment my two closing options (don’t forget I also took shots on free agents Valverde/Wilson in the reserve rounds). Shields/Wilson are a solid 1-2 punch. Niemann/Blanton are boring but they can be key pieces in league specific setups. Archer is a young kid with a luminous future. He could open the year in the Rays’ rotation, but even if he doesn’t he will be up at some point. Jimenez improves just a little bit, or Pineda is back to full strength in the second half…

So, this team looks better than my entry last season. Does that mean it will do better or worse when the final numbers are tallied?

Click here for a review of the entire AL LABR DRAFT.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 26, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I have Neil Walker at 2b & Jemile Weeks at MI. Omar Infante still available on the waiver-wire. Do I grab Omar over NW or JW?
– @DadofReilly

Walker is hitting only .224 with no homers and five RBI through 17 games, a dreadful start for a guy who came into the season with a fair amount of hype. To be fair we’re only talking about 58 at-bats, and Walker does have 12 hits in his last 10 games, but disappointing is certainly a word I would use to describe a guy coming off a 83 RBI, 76 run campaign who has started like this. Weeks has been just as bad hitting a mere .200 with a pathetic .253 OBP, but he does have two homers, three steals and nine runs scored, so he hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster (Week’s brother, Rickie, has been pretty unimpressive since the start of last season. For more see Fact of the Day, April 25thBaseballGuys.com). At the same time, I always felt that Jemile was getting too much love in fantasy circles heading into the 2012 season.

Infante continues to act like he thinks he is Robinson Cano. Through a mere 13 games Infante is hitting .313 with five home runs. Infante is a .275 career hitter, and he hit .305 in 2009 and .321 in 2010, so it’s possible he could bat .300 this season, though I still consider it unlikely. As for the power, there is no, none, nada, chance that the power display will continue. This is not a Jose Bautista breakout we are witnessing. Infante has one season, and he started playing in the majors in 2002, with more than nine homers (he hit 16 back in 2004). Per 162 games in his career, a career that has lasted long enough for him to accrue over 3,200 big league at-bats, Infante has averaged 10 homers. He’s already halfway to that average — in 13 games thanks to a four times increase in his HR/F rate (it’s currently at 20.8 percent versus a career mark of 5.2 percent).

Given how hot he has been, there are very few fantasy baseball leagues out there in which Infante should be on waivers considering he has been the third most productive second base eligible player per contest according to Fleaflicker. That said, he’s got no shot at ll of sustaining his unbelievable start. If you wanted to move on from either of your current players I would suggest dropping Walker because his skill set more closely matches that of Infante (Weeks has game changing speed). I’m not saying I’d rather have Infante for the course of the season over Walker, but there is no denying that right now Infante is the more appealing option.

Drop Bud Norris for Chad Billingsley or Chris Capuano? Or keep the faith?
– @edcolby

Norris is being bailed on by a lot of people who see a 5.84 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. You should look beyond those numbers to see the following. (1) His 8.03 K/9 rate is impressive. (2) His 2.92 BB/9 mark is a batter below his career level. (3) His 0.97 GB/FB ratio is just off his career rate of 1.02. Still, his HR/FB ratio is way up leading to 1.82 homers per nine innings. That number will not continue (just look at his mark the past two seasons – 1.05 and 1.16). The truth of the matter is that Norris has pitched way better than his fantasy ratios would suggest.

Billingsley came out on fire, and it appears that he is well on his way to putting behind him that down 2011 campaign (11-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 152 Ks). The biggest key for Billingsley in the early going, the main reason he has a 3.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through four starts, is the fact that he just isn’t beating himself. A guy who walks about 3.9 batters per nine innings for his career, that mark currently sits at 1.90. Guys just don’t drop two batters off their BB/9 mark after being at another level for five years, but it’s still encouraging to see him throwing more strikes. At the same time, Billingsley’s current 7.23 K/9 mark would actually be a six year low, so maybe he’s changed his approach a wee bit. It’s also a pretty good bet that Chad won’t be able to keep batters to a .195 average (.249 for his career) once the innings start to pile up.

Capuano is slowly starting to get some love in the fantasy game. A huge injury risk since the virtually the day he was drafted, here are Capuano’s innings pitched totals the past five years: 150, zero, zero, 66 and 186. Yeah, he’s one risky cat to own. Capuano does have solid K potential (7.83 per nine this year, 8.13 last season), pitches in a solid pitchers park in Los Angeles (he also gets to make starts in pitcher havens such as San Diego and San Francisco), and he’s a cheap option that is likely still on many a waiver-wire even with his solid start (2-0, 3.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20 Ks in 23 IP).

I’m taking Billingsley knowing full well that he has no chance of keeping up his current pace. So why suggest adding the Dodgers’ righty then? Consistency (something Capuano certainly can’t offer). Billingsley takes the ball every five days and gives his team a chance to win more times than not. Norris has a “bigger” arm, but he’s also inconsistent and pitches for a team that might struggle to provide him with enough run support for him to reach double-digits in victories.

Should I drop Kelly Johnson to sign Jose Altuve?
– @theYankeeHajny

Johnson hit .222 last year and has started out this year with a .231 average through 17 games so I get the concern. At the same time, Johnson has hit 20 homers with 75 runs scored and 13 steals each of the past two years. Those aren’t fantastic numbers but they are still numbers that only one second sacker have reached each of the past two years. A guy like that, even with a potential batting average deficiency, shouldn’t be given up on lightly (it should be pointed out that Johnson does have a .259 career average and that he hit .284 as recently as 2010).

Altuve has been hot with the twig hitting .377 through 69 at-bats. However, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. First, Altuve isn’t going to hit the ball into the seats (three homers in 290 career at-bats), which also will likely lead to a poor RBI total for an every week starter in most mixed leagues. Second, though speedy, he’s only had one effort of 30 steals and he has 11 in 75 big league games. He could easily steal 20 bases this year, he already has four, but his not going to light up the steals category. Third, and I hate to break it to you all, but he’s not a great hitter. Having completely skipped Triple-A, Altuve has only 290 at-bats above Double-A, and that concerns me a bit given that he isn’t exactly the most patient hitter in the world, and that could drain his batting average a bit when he gets into a funk. It’s also a pretty fair guess that his current .431 BABIP will likely regress by a .100 or so points, and that will cause his batting average to dip accordingly.

Give me Johnson over the slap it and run Altuve, but make sure you have other hitters on your club who can cover the poor average you are likely to receive from Johnson.

I trade Adrian Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz for Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. Do it?
– @bearnvegas

Everyone, let’s stop the panic with Pujols. Some facts. In every season of his career he’s finished the year hitting at least .299 with 34 homers, 99 RBI and 99 runs scored. Right now he’s hitting .222-0-4-6. Assuming he reaches his “worst” totals, numbers he has reached in each of the past 11 seasons, that means from this point forward that he is going to blast 34 homer with 94 RBI and 93 runs scored. And those numbers would merely equal his career worsts. As for the batting average, assuming 574 at-bats (his seasonal average the first nine years), Pujols would hit .311 the rest of the season. Despite the slow start, I think all of those targets are fair which leads me to the position that I would still prefer Pujols to AGone (.303-2-13-9).

Cruz can be a beast, but he’s always seemingly hurt (the last three seasons he has averaged just 120 games a season which dings his value substantially). He’s also hit under .265 in two of his last three seasons. There are also questions about just how much running he will be allowed to do given his continued issues with his wheels (he’s stolen 10 bases in his last 143 games after stealing 37 bases in 2009-10). Hanley is hitting just .238, and coming off shoulder surgery, but he qualifies at shortstop and second base, and that’s huge. He’s also gone deep four times while stealing four bases, a pace that would lead to a 35/35 season if he were to maintain it (obviously that’s doubtful).

Get Pujols and HanRam. AGone and Cruz should not be dealt to anyone lightly, but this is a pretty impressive return.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Around the Diamond

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

One guy is trying to make history while a former all-star is just trying to stay in the lineup. Another all-star could be headed to the DL, someone can’t figure out how to manage his weight properly and there are some white hot players the last two weeks that deserve a mention.

Asdrubal Cabrera has been the second most valuable shortstop in the game behind only Jose Reyes. Cabrera is on pace to hit .302 with 32 homers, 113 RBI, 108 runs and 18 steals. There is only one shortstop in the history of the game to produce a season as good as that in all five categories, and that is Alex Rodriguez who did it twice. Obviously history doesn’t bode well for Cabrera being able to keep up this pace, nor does a review of his previous levels of production. Consider his homer and RBI totals each year of his career (all levels for each season).

2006: 4 homers, 36 RBI
2007: 11-79
2008: 10-60
2009: 6-68
2010: 4-32

I don’t have any idea how you go from that to 30-100, do you?

I saw X-Men First Class last night. A really good flick, even for those of you who don’t have an affinity for superhero movies. I also learned that January Jones ain’t a bad looking lady at all. Where have I been on that one?

In one of the more vexing cases this season, Jason Bay is hitting .207 with two homers over 164 plate appearances thanks to a recent run of 23 hitless at-bats. Bay has hit at least 21 homers with 84 RBI and 78 runs scored in each of his five big league seasons of at least 145 games played. Moreover, in four of those seasons he hit at least 30 homers with 100 RBI and 100 runs scored. At just 32 years old his struggles this year are befuddling to say the least. The guy has been flat out awful since joining the Mets hitting .244 with eight homers, 57 RBI and 68 runs scored in 134 games with the club.

Dustin Pedroia might need surgery on his right knee that could reportedly keep him out for four or more weeks. A career .299 hitter, Pedroia is struggling along at .247 and has looked little like the player we expect at the dish. Oddly though, he’s on pace for a career best steal total, he already has 13 (career best 20), despite the knee issue and the surgery he had on his foot last year.

Did you see the ridiculous story that Francisco Rodriguez lost 15 lbs over the last week after having two teeth removed? Even crazier than that is the ludicrous notion espoused by K-Rod that he was unaware that he lost the weight. Those two points lead me to two points. (1) Don’t they have milkshakes in New York? It’s completely asinine to suggest that K-Rod couldn’t keep his weight on cause he had teeth removed. You don’t have to eat steak to keep your weight up, especially when you have access to the elite in the medical profession to help to guide you in how  to keep the weight on. (2) How fat is K-Rod if he didn’t notice that he lost 15 lbs? If I gain or lose five pounds my clothes don’t fit.

Only two lefties are in the top-25 in terms of batting average against versus right-handed batters since the start of 2009. They both pitch in the NL. They both are in the NL West. They are Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Sanchez. For those of you with a curious bent, Kershaw is 9th on the list while the Giants lefty is one spot ahead of him in 8th.

The last two weeks…

Michael Bourn has eight steals.

Nelson Cruz has blasted six dingers leading to 13 RBI and 11 runs.

Kelly Johnson has six homers, 11 RBI and 13 runs scored.

Andrew McCutchen is hitting .417 with 10 RBI, 12 runs and four steals.

Mitch Moreland is hitting .405 with three homers.

Daniel Murphy is hitting .467.

Miguel Olivo has 15 RBI, one more than the 14 of Carl Crawford.

David Ortiz is hitting .405 with five homers, 11 RBI and 12 runs.

Corey Patterson is hitting .356 with three homers/steals and 13 runs scored.

By Ray Flowers

Random ADP Thoughts

l probably touch on plenty of Average Draft Position data over the coming month plus as we get ready for the start of the regular season. Today, I’m gonna look at the data from Mock Draft Central and point out some of the more vexing things I’m currently seeing.

Is Andre Ethier really a top-11 outfielder like he is being drafted (ADP of 40)? The dude has a beautiful swing, you’ll get no argument from me there, but there are some serious concerns with me if you are thinking of going with Ethier in the top-40 or so picks. (1) He’s only had one season of 25 homers. (2) He’s only had one season of 85 RBI. He’s only had one season of 400 at-bats in which he hit .295. (4) He’s never stolen more than six bases. So let’s boil that down. How much would you pay for a .295-25-85 season with six steals? Aubrey Huff hit .290 with 26 homers, 86 RBI and seven steals last year and his ADP this year is 111. I’m just saying.

Rickie Weeks is going off the board eight picks before Ian Kinsler and 70 before Kelly Johnson. Huh. I know Kinsler is an injury waiting to happen, but really, is he any more of a risk than Weeks? In three of the his six seasons Weeks has failed to appear in 100 games. Kinsler has appeared in at least 100 games in each of his five seasons. Let’s compare the performance of each man per 162 games.

Weeks: .253-22-67-113-23
Kinsler: .281-24-83-115-28
Johnson: .269-18-70-91-11

I snuck Johnson in there at the end to show that he is likely the best option of all three if you are talking about a return on your investment. I wouldn’t put his upside anywhere near to the other two, but there could be value in selecting him five rounds later. By the way, I’m not sold on anyone taking Weeks before Kinsler.

I get why people are scared off from Mark Reynolds, I mean the dude hit .198 last year. But should he be going off the board at pick 129? Over the past three years, here is how Reynolds ranks amongst third sackers: he is first with 104 homers, fourth with 284 RBI, second with 264 runs scored and third with 185 extra base hits. Are you really sure he isn’t a better value than the Pirates up and coming slugger Pedro Alvarez who is going off the board with an ADP of 88? Alvarez hit only .256 last year, Reynolds is .242 for his career, and Alvarez struck out 119 times in just 347 at-bats. I really don’t see too much difference there.

Alex Gordon is barely cracking the top-400 right now, and with good reason after he hit a mere .215 in 242 at-bats with the Royals last season. Still, the guy was the #2 overall selection in the 2005 Draft, he’s just 27 years old, and I think the Royals will give him a legit shot at everyday playing time making him a terrific AL-only option with some mixed league appeal (if you grab him really late). Don’t overlook that Gordon punished Triple-A pitching last year to the tune of a .315-14-44-59-7 line in a mere 68 games. It’s now or never time for him, and he knows it.

Roy Oswalt led the NL in WHIP last season (1.03) and he is going off the board as the 27th starting pitcher with an ADP of 101. Let’s compare, for giggles, his work last season to that of Zack Greinke who is going off the board in the top-10 amongst starters with an ADP of 51.

Oswalt: 13-13, 2.76 ERA, 193 Ks, 1.03 WHIP, 3.51 K/BB in 211.2 IP
Greinke: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 181 Ks, 1.25 WHIP, 3.29 K/BB in 220 IP

Surprised? I’ll give Greinke a boost in value since he will now be in the NL, and he clearly is the one of the duo who has more “upside,” but really, does that justify the fact that he is going off the board 50 selections ahead of Oswalt? Not in my mind.

If you have any questions drop me a line at rflowers@fanball.com, and make sure you follow me on Twitter at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter account.

By Ray Flowers

Top-10 2B for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-10 Second Basemen for 2011 and explain why I favor Chase Utley over Robinson Cano.

For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?

Top-10 RPs for 2011.

Top-20 OFs for 2011.

Top-10 SS for 2011.

Top-10 3B for 2011.

UTLEY OVER CANO

Am I the black sheep or what? It seems like every time we look at these staff rankings I’m the maverick out there saying something no one else agrees with. To be honest I had zero intention of stirring up any controversy, it’s just how things played out.

So why in the world would I list Utley #1 when everyone else on staff had him #2 behind the Yankees’ Cano? Here are my thoughts.

Both players have a history of excellence at the dish, though I still say Utley has the higher ceiling here. The data.

Cano has:
* Hit at least .297 in five of his six seasons and owns a .309 career average.
* Hit at least 14 homers in each of his six seasons.
* Knocked in at least 72 runs in each of the past five seasons (he had 62 as a rookie).
* Scored at least 70 runs in five of his six season.
* Produced at least 155 hits in each of his six seasons.
* Hit at least least 34 doubles each of the past six seasons. In fact, he is fifth in baseball with 240 doubles since the beginning of the 2005 season.

Now for Utley who has:
* He has hit at least .275 each of the past six seasons and owns a .293 career average.
* Hit at least 22 homers in five of the past six seasons.
* Knocked in at least 93 runs in five of the past six seasons.
* Scored at least 93 runs in five of the past six seasons.
* Produced at least 158 hits in five of the past six seasons.
* Hit at least 28 doubles in five of the past six seasons. In fact, he is 14th in baseball with 216 doubles since the beginning of the 2005 season.

Remember, Utley was limited to just 115 games in 2010 because of injury or those columns above would almost certainly read all six seasons instead of five of six (he hit .275-16-65-75-13, 20 doubles and 117 hits in 115 games).

Let’s do a more direct comparison between the two.

From 2005-09 Utley averaged 29 homers a season. Cano has only one season in his career with 29 homers.

From 2005-09 Utley averaged 101 RBI a season. Cano only has one season in his career with more than 97 RBI.

From 2005-09 Utley averaged 111 runs a season. Cano has never scored 105 runs in a campaign.

From 2005-09 Utley averaged 15 steals a season. Cano has never stolen more than five bases in a season.

Are you catching my drift here? More directly, here are each man’s totals, per 162 games, over their careers.

Utley: 29 homers, 105 RBI, 109 runs, 15 steals
Cano: 21 homers, 91 RBI, 92 runs, 4 steals

I’m sure some will argue for the difference in the batting average of the two pushing the Yankees’ second sacker ahead of Utley, admittedly Cano has Utley beat there (career: .309 to .293), but I would counter with the following. Utley has a career OBP of .380. Cano has only one season in his career in which he can match that (.381 in 2010). Utley also owns a .514 SLG in his career, well clear of the .489 mark of Cano.

Don’t get me wrong I love Cano, but I think he is coming off a career best season which will drive up his price. He is also on the Yankees, and that always makes guys more expensive. I’m more than willing to give up a few batting average points for the better production in the other four fantasy categories that Utley will likely offer in 2011, so you can go ahead and take Cano first.

And finally, why no Howie Kendrick love (I was the only one to mention him in the top-10)? I got news for everyone, not only does Kendrick own a .295 career average, he had more homers (10) than Ian Kinsler (nine), more RBI than Kelly Johnson (71), more runs than Juan Uribe (67 to 64) and more steals than Utley (14 to 13) in 2010. I’ll gladly take Kendrick as my second basemen in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 16, 2010

(1) Jake Peavy has an arm issue. Does that mean Daniel Hudson is close to be recalled?

(2) Tim Lincecum takes a liner off his shoulder – appears to be OK.

(3) Carlos Ruiz slumping, missing time with injury for the Phillies.

(4) Alex Rodriguez back from hip injury after missing about a week.

(5) Giants still hoping to get Pablo Sandoval to lose weight.

(6) Conor Jackson to play everyday in LF for the Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April26, 2010

(1) Ryan Howard backs up the money truck, and it’s fully loaded.

(2) Ian Kinsler to hit 5th upon return.

(3) Red Sox lineup in flux.

(4) Miguel Olivo gaining more looks at expense of Chris Iannetta.
*NOTE: After video was made, the club demoted Iannetta to Triple-A in the hopes that he will relax and rediscover his stroke.

(5) Jeff Suppan out of rotation, replaced by Chris Narveson.

(6) D’backs offense looks good with Johnson-Young-Reynolds.

By Ray Flowers