Draft Day Challenge, April 11

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. Tyler Flowers

Wieters is only 1-for-12 against Alfredo Aceves in his career, a bad looking matchup on the surface. However he has hit .292 in 233 at-bats against the Red Sox, and 12 at-bats isn’t a huge amount to draw on.

Flowers faces Dan Haren, he of the 32 homers allowed in his last 31 starts. Flowers has 20+ homer power and has two bombs in 22 at-bats this season. He has gone 10 at-bats without a hit though.

FIRST BASE
1. Brandon Moss
2. Kendrys Morales

Moss has two homers and nine RBIs the past two days, and he’s also registered 10 hits in his last 17 at-bats (.588). Doesn’t matter who is on the hill right now (it’s Jason Vargas who he has one hit in three at-bats against).

Morales has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats including three doubles and a home run as he has knocked in five runs. He faces Justin Grimm, he of the 14 career big league innings during which time he has allowed 14 runs.

SECOND BASE
1. Jeff Keppinger
2. Dustin Pedroia

Keppinger will be facing the struggling Dan Haren whom he has eight hits against in 16 career ABs including a big fly.

You can pretty much always go with Pedroia, but this is a solid matchup. He’s hit .364 against Chris Tillman in 11 at-bats. He’s currently hitting .323. The last three years he has hit .303 at Fenway. Lock and load.

THIRD BASE
1. Manny Machado
2. Alberto Callaspo

Manny hit a game winning home run Wednesday, and though he’s struggled this season he has hit a bit better versus righties than lefties (1-for-9 vs. lefties). Machado faces spot starter Alfred Aceves Thursday.

Callaspo has hit .283 against righties the past three years. He’s got five hits in 11 at-bats against righties this season. He faces righty A.J. Griffin Thursday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Alexei Ramirez

Andrus has produced 16 hits in 51 at-bats against King Felix, a .314 batting average. He’s also driven in eight runs in the matchup. Maybe the matchup will help him out of his current slump (four hits in 21 at-bats).

Ramirez faces a struggling Dan Haren who has he two hits in eight at-bats against. Is that enough of a reason to start the consistently solid Ramirez?

OUTFIELD
1. Coco Crisp
2. David Murphy

Crisp is hitting .364 with a homer in 33 at-bats against Jason Vargas. He’s also hitting .444 with four homers, four doubles, and six RBIs the last seven days.

Murphy has a whopping 63 at-bats against Felix Hernandez in his career, and he’s dong very well despite 15 Ks. When he isn’t whiffing he’s pounding out hits as evidenced by his .302 average, two homers and 10 RBIs.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Jason Marquis
3. Zack Greinke
4. Dylan Axelrod

Griffin had a 2.90 ERA on the road last season and he get’s to take on an Angels club, in Anaheim. The A’s have also scored 18 runs in their last two games as their offense is humming giving you a warm feeling about Griffin getting plenty of run support.

Marquis has held current Dodgers batters to a .242 average and two homers over 128 at-bats (Matt Kemp is only 2-for-17 off Jason in his career). Marquis is also 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 14 career starts against the Dodgers.

Greinke has held the Padres to a .250 batting average in 48 at-bats. The Padres only have one player with 20 at-bats that is hitting .270. They also have only three homers in 264 at-bats. Greinke also looked sharp in his first outing (0 ER in 6.1 IP).

Axelrod… hey, there aren’t that many options to turn to with a lot of early games. The Nats are 6-2 on the year and they are a solid offense, so this is more likely a shot in the dark you should avoid, than solid advice. At least I’m honest.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

2013 Livin’ The Fantasy Draft

And the fantasy baseball drafts just keep on coming… Kay Adams and I hosted the Livin’ the Fantasy Draft for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM87). The league consisted of myself, Kay, Kyle Elfrink, two producers (Drew Phelps and Phil Backert), and six listeners (one was unable to make it). That means we had a shallow 11 team, mixed league draft that we took part in. I had the #2 selection in the draft, and here is how my team turned out.

C: Carlos Santana (7th round), Victor Martinez (8)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (19), Kendrys Morales (24)
2B: Rickie Weeks (9), Martin Prado (6)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (4), Manny Machado (21)
SS: Jose Reyes (2)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Dexter Fowler (13), Cameron Maybin (23), Drew Stubbs (25), Michael Brantley (28)

STARTING PITCHERS: Yovani Gallardo (10), Mat Latos (11), Brandon Morrow (12), C.J. Wilson (15), Dan Haren (16), Tim Hudson (22), Edinson Volquez (26)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Joe Nathan (14), Joel Hanrahan (17), Kenley Jansen (18), Steve Cishek (20), Vinnie Pestano (27)

It’s a two catcher league, and with the two talents I saw sitting there in the 7th and 8th rounds I thought to myself what the heck, do something you normally don’t due and roster two potentially elite options at catcher.

First base is an area of weakness relative to the rest of my team. Still, I’m confident that my duo of Youkilis and Morales will be able to hold their own at the spot, even if I’m just treading water there.

Weeks fell in my eyes, so I was more than willing to dive into the pool in the 9th round. Injuries are always an issue, but per 162 games for his career here is Weeks line – .251-23-67-107-20. Yeah, I know right? Prado qualifies at OF, 3B, 2B and SS in this league. I know he shouldn’t, but you have to play to your leagues rules. He offers excellent cover up the middle, at the corner, and in the outfield. I love him as my middle infielder right now. Speaking of up the middle, Reyes is a strong contender to lead shortstops in fantasy value in 2013.

Zimmerman’s shoulder keeps passing all the tests this spring, and he seems well on his way to another traditionally impressive effort at the hot corner. Machado in the 21st was a shocking fall actually. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on The Drive (5 PM EDT, Monday-Friday) pointed out something very interesting. Rookies like Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar are on everyone’s must draft list. A youngster like Machado, who is just as talented, simply isn’t because he played last year and only did so-so. The perception is that Myers/Profar are worth the risk this season but Machado is only blah. Folks, Machado is a dynamic talent who has a starting job with the Orioles. That should mean more than it does to some.

Braun is still my #1 guy, PED junk be damned. Upton is a great #2 outfielder. Choo is a great #3 outfielder. Fowler is a great #4 outfielder. Maybin/Stubbs/Brantley equals a great #5 outfielder.

On the hill I waited on starters, shocking I know, and yet again proved you can do well following that strategy. Gallardo and Latos are top-20 arms in my eyes, and Morrow is right on the edge of that as well. My 4th starter is Wilson, and I have a lot of faith in him rebounding this season (see his Player Profile). My fifth is Haren, and I have a lot of faith that he will rebound this season (see his Player Profile). My sixth starter is Tim Hudson, you know the guy who has averaged 16 victories with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP the past three seasons. My seventh starting arm is Volquez who has a 200 K season in his back pocket, has filthy stuff, and pitches half his games in Petco Park.

In the pen, some strong arms as well. Nathan and Hanrahan are top-10 closer types, and Cishek is a strong 3rd closer. I also added Jansen, that guys arm is as good as any in baseball, and Pestano who is one hell of a hurler himself (he’s also potentially going to get some 9th inning work if Chris Perez isn’t 100 percent by opening day).

It’s an 11 team league, having one less team in the mix certainly opens up the player pool for sure, and who knows about injuries, but looking at this squad I really don’t think I have an obvious weakness.

Oh, and here are the results of an NL-only draft that we held on The Drive which you can hear Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT on Sirius 210. XM87.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kendrys Morales

In 2009 Kendrys Morales was a fantasy baseball star hitting .306 with 34 bombs and 108 runs batted in. He was off to another strong start in 2010 before he busted up his leg in the infamous jumping on home plate to celebrate the game winning hit injury (which I kept saying before the injury occurred was a dangerous, stupid thing – give me a high five and be done with it). As a result of that freak play Morales appeared in just 51 games in 2010, and when his recovery took longer than expected he actually ended up missing the entire 2011 season as well. So what did people think about him heading into 2012? People were sort of interested until he had one amazing week in Spring Training and everyone thought he was “back.” I warned against that and had him ranked 19th at the first base position heading into the ’12 season. Was I right about Morales, and whether or not the answer is yes/no what should we be thinking about with him heading into 2013?

Note: Morales was dealt to the Mariners after this article was written.

2012: .273-22-73-61-0 in 484 at-bats

Moraeles had a solid season, right in line with my personal expectations. However, I bet people were disappointed with his effort which was grossly inferior to his 2009 season. Here is what I will say about that – the same thing I’ve been saying for two years. The game just isn’t that easy. Moreales played 51 games in a two year span (you think Troy Tulowitzki is injury prone? Tulo played 265 games in 2010-11). Even if Morales is the player who had a great 2009 season, it just wasn’t reasonable to expect him to produce at an elite level after missing so much time (more than a year an a half of game action was missed folks). Second, and this was also overlooked, the reason he missed all that time was because his body wasn’t right. Just because he got to the point that he could play didn’t mean he was in baseball shape or that his body was totally “right.” Given those two huge factors, I would call his 2012 effort an unqualified success, despite what many people seem to think. What’s past is past though, so let’s try and figure things out for him moving forward.

A swtich hitter, Morales was limited to just 70 at-bats against lefties in 2012. He hit a pathetic .229 with a .289 OBP. He’s never been even a passable hitter against lefties though (career: .250/.286). He also struggled in the second half as he hit just .256 over his last 64 games. In the end he hit .273, not far off his .281 career mark. Given that he exceeded his career BABIP of .305 at .315, and that he also greatly exceeded his career line drive rate of 17.6 percent at 20.5, it might be wise to consider that Morales is more of the batting average producer he was in 2012 versus the 2009 version.

As for the power, it really came on in the second half when he went deep 14 times. Is he a 30 homer bat? It’s certainly possible. I mean he was before, hitting 34 in 566 at-bats in 2009, and he has gone deep 33 times in his last 677 at-bats wrapped around the leg injury, but I have my doubts. Though he has posted an impressive 18.1 percent or better HR/F mark each of the past three seasons, there is a disturbing trend going on that may limit his upside in the homer column. Morales had a league average 1.02 GB/FB ratio in 2009, hence the 34 homers. However, that number took a huge step up to 1.53 in 2010, and then in 2012 it took another step upward to 1.81. You simply aren’t going to hit 30 homers if you are hitting so many balls into the ground. Consider this. Over each of the last three seasons his ground ball rate has also increased, substantially: 40.7, 42.0, 47.9 and 51.2 percent. To reiterate, you just aren’t going to go deep 30+ times if you are hitting half your batted balls into the ground.

So who is Morales? I would posit that he is not the 2009 version or the 2012 version. I’d actually split things down the middle. By that I mean I look at Morales and think .280-25-90 is the type of hitter one should expect Morales to be in 2013. He could better all of those numbers, he has before, but with his increasing ground ball rate, and the previously unmentioned career worst K-rate from 2012 (22.2 percent), I’m just not seeing the type of growth or performance that would lead me to think a repeat of 2009 is in the offing.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday, and if you are interested in using that info to make a few bucks, DailyJoust can help you out.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Carlos Beltran vs. Roy Halladay: Beltran is second in the NL with 27 homers. He’s also gone deep twice in four games and four times in 10 contests. The matchup might look like a tough one on paper, but Beltran has had a lot of success against the veteran Phillies’ ace going .326-2-10 in 43 at-bats.

Adam Jones vs. Luke Hochevar: Jones has hit .343 over his last 35 at-bats and he’s always enjoyed success against Hochevar with eight hits in 20 at-bats (.400-1-6).

Kendrys Morales vs. Felix Hernandez: Morales is hot. He’s hit .3555 with three homers in eight August games and he’s also hit .333 with a bomb and eight RBIs in 26 at-bats against the King.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Clay Buchholz vs. Indians: CB has been on quite the role of late as he’s allowed a total of four earned runs in his last four outings. That run of success just might be enough for him to overcome the fact that he’s got a 5.06 ERA in eight starts on the road this year.

Kyle Lohse vs. Phillies: He has a tough matchup against Roy Halladay, but with the way Lohse is pitching does it even matter? Not only has he won his last six decisions but Kyle has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He’s also posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Phils.

Paul Maholm vs. Mets: Once more into the breach… Maholm continues to be just about as hot as any pitcher in the game (even if few seem to be buying it. See Fleaflicker). The last seven times he has started he’s gone at least 6.2 innings each time. He’s also allowed one or zero runs six times with his only hiccup being the three runs he allowed last time out. When a guy is rolling like this you don’t ask questions you just say ‘thank you, may I have another?’

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Jerry Hairston Jr.: He is 0-for-12 the past week. Still, he’s hit .318 on the road this season and he’s always enjoyed success against Nolasco (8-for-16 with five doubles).

Reed Johnson vs. Johan Santana: Johan will be making his first start since hitting the DL with an ankle issue, and he was awful in his last three starts allowing 19 runs in his last 12.2 innings. Given that Johnson has hit .516 against Johan, that’s 16-for-31 folks, how do you not play Reed?

Carlos Lee vs. Joe Blanton: Lee is hitting .3109 since the All-Star break. He’s also rapping out hits at a .364 clip over his last 33 at-bats. When he faces Blanton he’s got nine hits in 18 at-bats, good for a cool .500 average.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Dan Haren vs. Mariners: Do the Mariners even have a team anymore? Ichiro is gone, Smoak was demoted, Ackley can’t hit his weight. They are awful. Haren has predictably dominated the Mariners in his career with a 2.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 20 starts and he’s also allowed just four runs in his last three starts as his back woes seem to have finally abated.

Jeremy Hellickson vs. Twins: For the season Hellickson has a 3.43 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. For his career those numbers are 3.17 and 1.20. In eight games on the road this year he has a 3.21 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. In three starts against the Twins in his career those numbers are 3.98 and 1.03. Can you spell consistency?

Francisco Liriano vs. Athletics: OK, so his leg is a bit sore. Still, that’s not enough to dissuade me from suggesting that Liriano makes a solid start Saturday. Liriano has faced current Athletics for 121 at-bats, and they have produced 22 hits leading to a .182/.233/.256 line. That’s a .489 OPS folks. Lock and load.

CONTESTS

Daily Joust is obviously still running baseball leagues for those of you diehard fans (give yourself a pat on the back for hanging in there given the incessant pushing of the NFL). However, if you’re also looking to sink you teeth into the football season, while concurrently still making it happen in baseball, they’ve got you covered there too. To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 13: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Pedro Alvarez (+12, $96,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
In his last four games he has gone deep twice and driven in nine runs, and for the month of June he drove the ball into the seats seven times while platting 20 runs. He’s still hitting a mere .231 on the season, and it just doesn’t appear like he is ever going to be able to be a positive producer in that category (even in June he hit just .262). Don’t worry about his leg issue. Apparently it was just cramps and he should be fine.

Clint Barmes (+11, $66K)
The guy has been a monumental failure this season, even in NL-only leagues. On the year Barmes has somehow used 225 at-bats to produce a mere .204/230/.307 line. Never really an All-Star caliber performer despite a couple of nice seasons, he was usually effective when in the lineup. Well, at least he is improving of late. After hitting .149 in April he batted .189 in May and pushed that mark to .247 in June when he had 11 RBI after knocking in just seven runners the first two months of the year.

Freddie Freeman ($19, $105K)
It seems like every week there is some new malady that he is being forced to overcome. Even with all his missed time he still has 10 homers and 47 RBI putting him on pace to better his totals from last year (21 and 76). He’s also produced at least one hit in each of his last six games as he’s knocked in six runs, scored six times, and seen his batting average climb from .247 to .266 in that time.

Yasmani Grandal (+14, $64K)
This switch hitter can sometimes get a little long with his hacks, but as we last week, when he lays into it the ball can fly (his first two big league homers came from each side of the dish). The weeks #1 pickup behind the dish, Grandal has a big enough bat that he could be able to largely keep Nick Hundley out of the mix the rest of the season (when you hit .166 over 193 at-bats like Hundley has, leading to a demotion to the minors, it may not be that hard to do).

Justin Ruggiano (+13, $91K)
Have you noticed that through 54 at-bats this season that Justin is blasting the ball to the tune of a .389 average, a .469 OBP and .704 SLG? Amazing is right. He’ll continue to be in the lineup on a daily basis until he slows down, Ozzie Guillen might have his issues but he’s no moron. Really just an NL-only option unless you’re desperate in a mixed league.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Yonder Alonso (-22, $60K)
Wait, wasn’t this guy supposed to be able to hit? Through 268 at-bats this season he has two homers and 18 RBI. Toss in 23 runs scored and two steals, and he has been one of the least productive full time performers in baseball. When you look over to the average column and find a .257 mark sitting there, thanks to a .218 mark in June, you’ll begin to realize just how disappointing his effort has been this year.

Zack Cozart (-21, $56K)
Every time this guys name is mentioned people get all excited. Why? Sure his 17 homer pace is nice for a shortstop, and if he scored 90 runs that would be great, but the guy just isn’t a good offensive performer. He’s hitting a sub par .245, and his .290 OBP is hideous. He’s only swiped two bases on the year, and despite the power he’s displayed he’s on pace for about 40 RBI. Don’t know why anyone get’s excited about that (at least over at Fleaflicker his owned percentage is pretty low).

Michael Cuddyer (-28, $70K)
Uh oh. Everyone’s darling in Colorado has hit the skids. He’s still on pace for 25 homers and 100 RBI, so the run production has been there, but he’s also seen his batting average dip to .256 and his OBP is .311 after a June he’d like to forget (.212/.257). Also a bit concerning is his 21 percent K-rate after that number has been under 18.5 percent each of the past five years and under 17 percent each of the past two years.

Chris Davis (-26, $60K)
After a horrific dry spell that saw him go eight games without a hit, Davis has rebounded a bit with four hits in his last three games. Even with the dip he’s hitting .271 with 13 homers, and those numbers, if doubled, would still be a solid season for a guy who may have fooled a few people as he was hitting .300 as recently as June 16th. He’s simply not a .300 hitter.

Kendrys Morales (-20, $60K)
Oh you dreaded hype machine. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon when Morales had a scorching week in spring training, everyone it seemed by me of course. Hey, the guy is on pace to hit about .280 with 17 homers, and those aren’t bad numbers for a guy who didn’t play a single game last year. Still, disappointments abounds with a a guy who is also on pace for a .750 OPS with 60 RBI.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 19, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Justin Morneau just hit the wire. Drop Dexter Fowler, Kendrys Morales or Billy Butler to get him?
– @JoshNarva

I’m cheering on Morneau as much as the next guy, but let’s slow our roll here a bit. I know that he’s playing defense which is great news, and that he has hit three homers in his last two games. All of that is well and good. However, someone needs to mention that the last time this guy had 300 at-bats was 2009. It should also be noted that over his last 80 games played Morneau has hit .235 with eight homers and 36 RBI. I’m all for hoping he will return to being the 20-100 man he was for 4-straight years from 2006-09, but he’ll need a lot more than two strong games to convince me he is back to that level.

The obvious move to be made would be to drop Morales. Both play first base and both are coming off injury. But think back three weeks. Is there anyone, and I mean any one of you, that drafted Morneau ahead of Morales? I bet there wasn’t one of you as Morneau was still struggling while Morales was simply bashing the ball in Spring Training. Ask yourself this question. Are you going to let 11 games, the total each has played this season, change the opinion that you held three weeks ago?

Should I drop Carlos Marmol for Santiago Casilla, Fernando Rodney or Jim Johnson?
– @harveynuts

More panic in the streets when it comes to closers, but I can’t really blame anyone (did you see the crazy news that Brad Lidge is dealing with vertigo? It’s like anything, and I literally mean anything, could sideline a 9th inning arm at this point. I fully expect one of the closers in the game to go missing in the Bermuda Triangle at some point in the near future).

Quickly, my thoughts on each.

Johnson has been stable, after some spring concerns, converting all five of his save chances. His K-rate is uninspiring (5.77 per nine for his career), ditto his K/BB (2.01), but he keeps the ball on the ground (57 percent). He could offer a 2011 Brandon League type effort if everything goes just right.

Rodney, how can I put this? He stinks. From 2007-11, that’s 270 games worth of pitching, had an ERA of  4.42, a WHIP of 1.50 and his K/BB was pathetic at 1.57. He wasn’t, and let me stress this, league average in any of those three categories the past five years. Good luck with him holding down the 9th inning job all year even if he’s been one of the better producers this season (see Fleaflicker).

Casilla has concerns as well, primarily his lack of pinpoint control. For more, see The On Deck Circle.

Keep Marmol. Not only does he have the longest track record of 9th inning success among this group, he’s also the most dominating option with one of the best K-rate’s in the history of baseball (min. 450 innings pitched his 11.73 K/9 mark is 4th all-time with the leader being Rob Dibble at 12.17). With Kerry Wood dealing with arms woes who would the Cubs turn to – Shawn Camp or James Russell? Please.

With RP being a crap shoot so far, does the value of Jose Valverde increase?
– @Phastball

It depends on how you view the value of Valverde. Is his job safe? Absolutely. Is he coming off a perfect season with 49 saves in 49 chances given him a massive amount of rope? Without question. At the same time, he didn’t pitch near as well last season as most people assume when they look at the save conversion rate. (1) Since 2006 his K/9 rate has gone down every season. 2011 was the first time in his career that he struck out less than a batter per inning. (2) Never a paint the corner artist, Valverde has walked an average of 4.39 batters per nine innings the past two years, more than a full batter worse than the league average. (3) His career GB/FB ratio of 0.96 is less than the big league average (about 1.10), another mark against him. I’m not predicting failure from him in 2012, he’ll get his saves, but realize he isn’t the pitcher that he was a few years ago even if he’s been so impressive at converting those save chances of late.

What do you think about Tommy Milone? What’s the comparable ceiling for this guy?
– @tallen1984

Scouts like Milone, but at the same time they’ve always been a bit reluctant to fully push him as an elite prospect since his pure “stuff” just isn’t that dominant. However, he had one of the more remarkable seasons of any minor league hurler last year when he went 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 148.1 innings at Triple-A. While those are good numbers, here is the remarkable part – he struck out more than a batter per inning, 155 in total, while walking 16 batters – sixteen. That’s 16 walks in 24 starts folks leading to a 9.69 K/BB ratio. Amazing.

Milone figures to have success, he certainly knows how to pitch, but he still throws 87-88 mph, and there is no way he’s going to be able to post numbers in the bigs like he did last season in the minors. The best case scenario for him this year is something akin to what Mark Buehrle accomplished last year (13-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 109 Ks).

Nolan Reimold or Matt Joyce for 4th OF?
– @gtrevino1975

I’ve been getting a ton of Reimold questions thanks to his impressive start (.341/.357/.707, four homers, eight RBI), but I’m not shocked at his success. In the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, I highlighted Reimold as a potential breakout performer you could grab on the cheap. Reimold has flashed the type of skills that lead one to believe that if he gets daily playing time, something he has received in the early going, that he could hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases (he is dealing with neck spasms and a hammy injury though, so there are a few health woes to worry about). He may never be more than a league average type in batting average, nothing in his K-rate, BB-rate, BABIP, GB/FB, LD-rate says he is anything but blah, but those counting numbers could be pretty darn solid if he gets 500 at-bats.

The real question here is do you go with the hot start and potential of Reimold and forgive the fact that he’s been lingering as a letdown for the past few years, or do you turn to Joyce who had a nice season last year when he posted a fantasy line of .277-19-75-69-13. In essence, Joyce was the type of player last season that many “think” Reimold can be. It’s not like Joyce has a long track record of success compared to Reimold, but I’m a fan of been there, done that. I had Joyce a few spots ahead of Reimold in my rankings three weeks ago before the season started, and Reimold is bit beat up right now physically, so I’m still leaning in the direction of Joyce right now.

Mat Latos was just dropped. I have Ted Lilly, Matt Harrison and Brandon Beachy. Do I drop anyone for him?
– @GetARealJob111

This is all I’m going to say about Ted Lilly. Since 2007 Lilly has the 5th best base runner per nine inning (10.40) mark of any pitcher in baseball who has thrown at least 750-innings, and he’s one of just 14 pitchers who has an K/9 mark of 7.50 in four of the last five seasons, minimum 150 IP a year (he just missed making it 5-for-5 last year with his 7.38 mark).

Beachy has a stupendous arm. In 168.2 career innings he has a K/9 rate of 10.30 and a K/BB rate of 3.33. Those are elite numbers. I’m not letting a young hurler with numbers like that go.

The guy you let go of to add Latos, and please add Latos and don’t panic with his poor performance to date (0-2, 8.22 ERA, 1.89 WHIP – it’s been three starts people), is Harrison. For more on why you should move on from Harrison see Quick Starting Pitchers.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.  

Daily Joust – Wk.2: What Did We Learn?

 Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

INEXPENSIVE OFFENSIVE HEROES

Mike Aviles, 2B/3B/SS ($75,000 Daily Joust salary): The Red Sox shortstop can hit. He owns a career .288 batting average and is currently batting .290 through 31 at-bats. He’s also popped two long balls, though his power upside is likely sneaking into the double digits in dingers. He also posses speed, he’s stolen 14 bags each of the last two seasons. Given his positional flexibility he’s a nice add to any lineup. His value is likely still heading up though as he appears likely to spend an awful lot of time in the leadoff spot for the Red Sox with the shoulder injury to Jacoby Ellsbury that will keep him out of action for an estimated six weeks.

Yunieksy Betancourt, SS ($68K): He’s actually played second base in five of his six games this year, he’s only played nine games at any position other than shortstop prior to this season, but it certainly hasn’t affected hit ability with the twig in his hands. Yunieksy is batting a robust .389 through 18 at-bats, but let’s not get too carried away here. He hasn’t walked a single time in six games, hasn’t stolen a base, and has scored only three times in six contests. Still, I’m not going to ignore his hot start at the plate, but I’m just trying to be realistic here with a guy who has hit .269 with a .293 OBP for his career.

Matt Carpenter, 1B ($66K): A hot pick up, Carpenter has had himself a whopper of a start to the season. Through eight games he has hit .409. That alone would be exciting. When you add in the 10 RBIs that he’s also produced it’s time to get a bit giddy. Carpenter hit .302 last year in 130 games at Triple-A, but he also hit only 12 homers not showing much pop, something you need from a corner infield option. Lance Berkman is also close to a return to the lineup, and don’t forget that Allen Craig (knee) is likely to be back in a couple of weeks making at-bats possibly hard to come by for Carpenter. There’s nothing wrong with rolling with him in the short-term though (over at Fleaflicker Carpenter has recoded the same average fantasy point total as Paul Konerko and Troy Tulowitzki).

Shelly Duncan, OF ($66K): The Indians lineup is about to get a bit crowded with the addition of Johnny Damon, and the question remains will that eat into the playing time of Duncan. If PT is determined by performance in Cleveland than Duncan shouldn’t be worried about losing any of it, at least not right now. Through eight games he has flashed his trademark power with two homers, a double and six RBI. He’s also walked an impressive eight times helping him to Bondsian .485 OBP. Given that he’s also hitting .320 right now you’d be wise to consider him for your starting lineup since he’s also working on a 5-game hitting streak.

Mark Ellis ($72K): Why am I bothering with a guy who is batting .235 with no homers and just two RBIs? Did you notice that his OBP is .366? Or how about the most interesting number in his line – 10 runs scored in nine games. Matt Kemp and Andre Either have to slow down as the season progresses, but if Ellis maintains a spot in the daily lineup, and is hitting out of the two hole, he’ll end up being a pretty valuable source of runs, and that average will certainly climb as well.

LOSER OF THE WEEK

Kendrys Morales ($110K): From April 9th through April 15th Morales had, wait for it, one hit in 18 at-bats. Given that he was also 0-for-5 on April 8th that means he has one hit in 23 at-bats. I know it’s early, and I always talk about sample size being so important, so I’m not going to hammer Morales – yet. I will say this, which is the same thing I was saying three weeks ago when people were going bonkers to add Morales after he had a hot stretch to end Spring Training, the guy is coming back from an injury after missing more than a season and a half. As great as he looked to end spring he has looked equally putrid once games started counting (.200-0-0 through 30 at-bats). The game just isn’t that easy folks.

PITCHERS WHO ARE PERFORMING

Bartolo Colon ($173K): He’s 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and an extremely impressive 7.00 K/BB ratio. I’m still not buying it. In a quirk of the schedule, thanks to MLB’s desire to play in Japan, Colon has pitched against the Mariners in all three of his games. I think, on a good day, that I could get many of the Mariners batters out. Be careful not to overemphasize his early season success.

Kyle Drabek ($195K): The former 1st round draft pick has killed it in two starts as he’s learned to just relax when guys get on base versus over thinking and trying to over analyze everything. He’s 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but do two starts wipe out a miserable 2011 effort that say him post a 6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP an a 0.93 K/BB ratio (yes, he walked more batters than he struck out last season)? I need more than two starts for me to feel like he’s totally over the hump.

Barry Zito ($215 K): Currently the 77th most expensive SP in the DailyJoust game, Zito has pitched his brains out – so far (1-0, 1.13 ERA in 16 IP). Be honest with your assessment here though. The last time he posted an ERA under 4.00 was 2006. The last time he had a winning record was 2006. He’s also struck out only eight batters in 16 innings and his current walk rate of 0.56 per nine, well I somehow don’t think he’s going to keep that up since he’s never posted a season long mark below 3.06, and that was way back in 2002.

DAILY CONTEST

MLB – Tournament – Mon, Apr 16th – King Arthur’s $50BB Hi Cap Daily Free For All over at DailyJoust.com.

Single entry. No entry fee. $50 prize pool payable in Bonus Bucks. Bonus Bucks can be used as entry fee for an cash entry contests on Daily Joust. Top 15 places paid. Winner also gets a King Arthur badge.

Prize: Top

•1 – $10.00
•2 – $5.00
•23 – $5.00

etc. (it pays out down to 15th place).

Also, if you deposit $25 in your account you can get a 40% deposit bonus, and who doesn’t like free money?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 3, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Head to head, 9th pick 12 team. Robinson Cano, Justin Upton, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Prince Fielder. Top 2 in order please?
– @Quinn8585

Here’s the dirty little secret of fantasy baseball – no one really knows the answer to this question. We all obsess over who to take in the first an second rounds as if the answer matters more than air. In truth, no one knows. I’ve been  referring to the study in the 2012 Baseball Forecaster by Baseball HQ to make my point (pp.42-43). According to HQ’s research, over the past eight years you have a 37.5 percent chance of drafting someone in the top-15 and at the end of the year finding them inside the top-15 in production. That means, and we’re talking eight years here, that you have roughly a one in three chance of “hitting” on your first round selection. On the flip side that means 2/3′s of the players drafted in the first round this year will not return first round value when the 2012 season is complete. Remember that next time your biting your fingernails trying to figure out who the best guy is to draft in the first round. If it was my team I’d take CarGo and Robinson Cano.

I was offered a trade, Joey Votto for Prince Fielder. Maybe I’m splitting hairs but I don’t see a big difference, do you?
– @AtlFan23

Well, if we are talking about a standard 5×5 fantasy league I think there is a difference, and it’s two-fold. First, Fielder has hit .282 for his career. In two of the past four years he’s failed to reach that mark, and he’s never hit .300 in a season (he fell one hit short last year finishing at .299). Votto has hit .313 for his career, has hit at least .309 each of the past three years, and in four full big league seasons he has never hit lower than .297. Votto is clearly the better play in batting average. The second area in which he takes a step over Fielder is in the steals category. Now I doubt Votto is going to steal 16 bases again as he did in 2010, but he did flash enough speed to swipe another eight bags last year giving him a two year average of 12 steals a season. Fielder has a mere 16 steals in his career including two the past two seasons. An eight steal different doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a huge fantasy boost in value for Votto. Also, one last point that tips things in the favor of Votto. Fielder has been the slightly better power bat with bigger homer totals, but this season he moves from a park in Milwaukee that was the second best homer park in the NL the past three years for lefties (according to Park Indices), for one in Detroit that was only 10th best in the AL for lefties. It’s quite possible that the homer gap between the two disappears this season.

I was offered Kendrys Morales for Michael Young straight up – would you accept that offer?
– @Jpetermon

Hype always amazes me. Every year we see rookies and youngsters driven up to the point that they are being drafted as if they were five time all-star’s (hello Brett Lawrie and Matt Moore). We also get players who excel in spring training being drafted way too early (I’m thinking Lorenzo Cain might fit into this category this year). A player that certainly fits into this second group is Morales. I know he has gone 11-for-26 (.423) with two homers but where is this hysteria coming from? How many at-bats did Morales have last year? Zero. How many at-bats has Morales had since the All-Star break in 2010? Zero? In fact, over the past twenty two months Morales has zero big league at-bats (he last appeared in a game on May 29th, 2010). Not just that, we’re talking about 26 spring training at-bats as well, that’s the definition of small sample size. Sure he’s looked great at this dish this spring, and he was a 34 homers, 108 RBI bat who hit .306 in 2009, but Carlos Lee hit .300 with 26 homers and 102 RBI in 2009 (not exactly a great comparison I know, but hopefully you get my point). Morales might return to being a top-10 first basemen this season but there is no way I’d take him in a deal straight up for Michael Young, one of the most consistent hitters in baseball the past decade. No thanks.

Jonathan Broxton and uncertainty in Kansas City, or Mark Melancon and uncertainty in Boston?
– @mrlcpbra

I have probably, and I’m not exaggerating for effect here, received 150 questions about the Red Sox and Royals bullpen situations over the past 10 days. Hell, that number may be well over 250 to be truthful. Here’s a form of what I’ve said to everyone who has asked; when the team doesn’t even know who they are going to turn to in the 9th inning, how in the world am I supposed to know what the “right” answer is? The answer to this question basically comes down to your philosophy on relievers. Some bullet points to consider.

* I can’t read a manager’s mind. I have no idea how he will handle the 9th inning call. Will he choose to go with experience, guile, stuff, match ups?

* Teams don’t always go with their best pitcher in the 9th inning, and that makes answering this issue, from a fantasy baseball perspective, maddening. Think of the Nationals. Their best reliever is Tyler Clippard, so he should be the first choice to fill in for the injured Drew Storen. However, the team thinks that Clippard is far too important in his setup role to handle the ninth inning so it looks like the save chances will be given to Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez who are inferior pitchers to Clippard.

* If closer number one is out of commission, how long a leash will the “backup” closer have? If he blows two saves will the manager flip to option three?

* Given all of that, I target skills not role. That’s my choice. In the end I think that skills win out. Teams tire quickly – unless you’re Kevin Gregg – of seeing their closers struggle to close out games in the 9th. Eventually the most skilled players should, notice I say should, gravitate to the 9th inning (it’s why I have recommended Kenley Jansen over Javy Guerra even though Guerra is set up to be the closer to start the year for the Dodgers). Eventually if you go with the skills you will be rewarded. However, let me be clear, that does not mean you will always make the “right” fantasy choice. The fact of the matter is that you need saves, and if Javy Guerra gives you 29 saves with a 4.43 ERA he’s still going to provide more fantasy value than Jansen and his six saves and 2.13 ERA. That’s just the breaks in the standard 5×5 fantasy game.

Given all of that, I’d go with Greg Holland and Mark Melancon if I was deciding on who to add from the Royals and Red Sox bullpens.

Thirteen team 7×7 roto. Closer neglect left me with just Andrew Bailey. Free agent list dry. OK to punt? Can it be done?
– @FearNLoathinNyc

I don’t ever recommend to someone that they punt a category, but you can do it an win (it stands an even better chance of being successful in a head-to-head league than a roto league). For a breakdown of this strategy see Punting Categories – A Good Idea?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

First Base Mediocrity?

In years past, first base was the land of offensive titans. To a certain extent that still is the case with names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez etc. However, once you get past the elite options at first base, let’s say outside the top-10 or 12, there are a whole bunch of options that have similar outlooks for 2012. I’ll break down some of those players in today’s piece (for my rankings of first baseman, and all the positions, go pick up a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide).

The old and boring: Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee
All three of these guys are certain to provide plenty of production in 2012, though all have seen their best days pass them buy. Berkman turned back the clock last year but there are questions. How will he do without Pujols? After two years of less than 140-games played, can he reasonably be expected to make 145 appearances again? Even if he stays healthy, where did last year’s production come from after two down years? Pena will hit his 28 homers and knock in his 80 runs like he has the past five years. He’s also failed to hit .230 the last three years and has gotten so bad against lefties (.133 in 120 ABs last year) that he may not face many of them in 2012. Lee also qualifies at outfield which is nice, and he has hat 19 homers and 80 RBI each of the past 12 years. Still, there’s not much going on here anymore.

The young and boring: Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez
Freeman reportedly gained 15 lbs of muscle. Newsflash, you can’t gain 15 lbs of muscle in five months. Maybe he went on a diet of Bacon Milkshakes? Even if he did gain muscle he’ll have to learn to lift the ball more if he was to significantly increase his homer total (he’s HR/F ratio for his short career is under 35 percent, and that’s below the big league average of about 37 percent). Sanchez did see an increase in his walk rate last year, but he’s basically produced identical seasons back-to-back. H’s solid, but there likely isn’t another level left for the 28 year old.

The young and who knows?: Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt
Davis is young, has the pedigree, and his ankle finally appears to be healthy. Still, this offseason talk of him hitting .300 with 30 homers is completely the result of him playing in New York. I don’t think he’ll hit either of those numbers this season, but if healthy, the power production should be solid. Goldschmidt has a bright future. The D’backs will give him all the at-bats he proves he can earn, and with that he should also be a solid run producer.

The old and who knows?: Ryan Howard
I’m not a big fan. You can read why in his Player Profile.

The flat out who knows: Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales
Both guys appear to be progressing, and the Twins and Angels are starting to grow optimistic. At the same time, neither is anything other than a depth addition with the hope that their previous levels of productivity return.
You can get solid production after the elite options are taken at first base, but it doesn’t appear very likely that you’re going to get difference making numbers after the first 10 or so options are off the board at the position.

You can check out how Fleaflicker has the first sackers ranked by clicking on the link.

By Ray Flowers

Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers