2013 Livin’ The Fantasy Draft

And the fantasy baseball drafts just keep on coming… Kay Adams and I hosted the Livin’ the Fantasy Draft for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM87). The league consisted of myself, Kay, Kyle Elfrink, two producers (Drew Phelps and Phil Backert), and six listeners (one was unable to make it). That means we had a shallow 11 team, mixed league draft that we took part in. I had the #2 selection in the draft, and here is how my team turned out.

C: Carlos Santana (7th round), Victor Martinez (8)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (19), Kendrys Morales (24)
2B: Rickie Weeks (9), Martin Prado (6)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (4), Manny Machado (21)
SS: Jose Reyes (2)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Dexter Fowler (13), Cameron Maybin (23), Drew Stubbs (25), Michael Brantley (28)

STARTING PITCHERS: Yovani Gallardo (10), Mat Latos (11), Brandon Morrow (12), C.J. Wilson (15), Dan Haren (16), Tim Hudson (22), Edinson Volquez (26)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Joe Nathan (14), Joel Hanrahan (17), Kenley Jansen (18), Steve Cishek (20), Vinnie Pestano (27)

It’s a two catcher league, and with the two talents I saw sitting there in the 7th and 8th rounds I thought to myself what the heck, do something you normally don’t due and roster two potentially elite options at catcher.

First base is an area of weakness relative to the rest of my team. Still, I’m confident that my duo of Youkilis and Morales will be able to hold their own at the spot, even if I’m just treading water there.

Weeks fell in my eyes, so I was more than willing to dive into the pool in the 9th round. Injuries are always an issue, but per 162 games for his career here is Weeks line – .251-23-67-107-20. Yeah, I know right? Prado qualifies at OF, 3B, 2B and SS in this league. I know he shouldn’t, but you have to play to your leagues rules. He offers excellent cover up the middle, at the corner, and in the outfield. I love him as my middle infielder right now. Speaking of up the middle, Reyes is a strong contender to lead shortstops in fantasy value in 2013.

Zimmerman’s shoulder keeps passing all the tests this spring, and he seems well on his way to another traditionally impressive effort at the hot corner. Machado in the 21st was a shocking fall actually. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on The Drive (5 PM EDT, Monday-Friday) pointed out something very interesting. Rookies like Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar are on everyone’s must draft list. A youngster like Machado, who is just as talented, simply isn’t because he played last year and only did so-so. The perception is that Myers/Profar are worth the risk this season but Machado is only blah. Folks, Machado is a dynamic talent who has a starting job with the Orioles. That should mean more than it does to some.

Braun is still my #1 guy, PED junk be damned. Upton is a great #2 outfielder. Choo is a great #3 outfielder. Fowler is a great #4 outfielder. Maybin/Stubbs/Brantley equals a great #5 outfielder.

On the hill I waited on starters, shocking I know, and yet again proved you can do well following that strategy. Gallardo and Latos are top-20 arms in my eyes, and Morrow is right on the edge of that as well. My 4th starter is Wilson, and I have a lot of faith in him rebounding this season (see his Player Profile). My fifth is Haren, and I have a lot of faith that he will rebound this season (see his Player Profile). My sixth starter is Tim Hudson, you know the guy who has averaged 16 victories with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP the past three seasons. My seventh starting arm is Volquez who has a 200 K season in his back pocket, has filthy stuff, and pitches half his games in Petco Park.

In the pen, some strong arms as well. Nathan and Hanrahan are top-10 closer types, and Cishek is a strong 3rd closer. I also added Jansen, that guys arm is as good as any in baseball, and Pestano who is one hell of a hurler himself (he’s also potentially going to get some 9th inning work if Chris Perez isn’t 100 percent by opening day).

It’s an 11 team league, having one less team in the mix certainly opens up the player pool for sure, and who knows about injuries, but looking at this squad I really don’t think I have an obvious weakness.

Oh, and here are the results of an NL-only draft that we held on The Drive which you can hear Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT on Sirius 210. XM87.

By Ray Flowers

The Value of Relief Pitching

I recently detailed how my team turned out in KFFL’s K -BAD League. As a review of that club will show, I waited in pitching and assembled what I believe to be a strong group of starting pitchers – James Shields, Yovani Gallardo, Jon Lester, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, James McDonald and Francisco Liriano . However, I’m not blind to the fact that I rostered an awful lot of risk. Lester and Haren are coming off down years, Marcum is once again dealing with some shoulder weakness, McDonald was terrible in the second half and Liriano is suffering from a broken non-throwing arm (we have a DL spot in this league which is where Liriano will end up). So how did I combat that risk? Besides building an impressive offense, I also rostered four dynamic arms in Steve Cishek, Kenley Jansen, Bobby Parnell and David Robertson. ‘But Ray, how does that rally help you since only one of those guys is locked into the 9th inning for his team?’ Ah, and with that question we dig into the meat of today’s article.

Let’s look at each relievers numbers from last season.

Cishek: 2.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 68 Ks, five wins, 15 saves
Jansen: 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 99 Ks, five wins, 25 saves
Parnell: 2.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 61 Ks, five wins, seven saves
Robertson: 2.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 81 Ks, two wins, two saves

All of those four produced solid efforts last season, wouldn’t you say? That group would have also brought you 49 saves last season, on the cheap, which is a huge bonus given their draft day cost. But did you realize just how dominating they were on the hill? In fact, that foursome of hurlers was just as good, better actually, than Justin Verlander last season, and no, I haven’t been drinking (though that White Russian on the counter is about 10 minutes away from being sipped). Take a look.

Verlander: 17 wins, 2.64 ERA, 239Ks, 1.06 WHIP in 238.1 innings
Relievers: 17 wins, 2.55 ERA, 309 Ks, 1.14 WHIP in 258 innings

Remember two other extremely salient points.

(1) Verlander had zero saves and the relievers had 49.

(2) Verlander’s cost $27 last year in Tout Wars (15 team mixed league).
The relievers cost $7 ($0 Cishek, $6 Jansen, $0, Parnell, $1 Robertson).

So, if you had that reliever group you would have gotten better numbers than Justin Verlander, plus don’t forget to add in the 49 saves, and spent a fourth as much money on draft day. Are you starting to see my point? Year after year relievers and their value to teams in the fantasy game is undervalued because people think that if a reliever isn’t giving you saves then he’s not helping your team. Granted, if your team is throwing 1,500 innings over the course of a season 65 innings from one reliever really isn’t going to leave much of a mark, but if you have two, three, four or five guys doing that, then it gets really interesting as you can see in the example above.

Some further notes.

(1) Target skills, not roles, with relievers.

(2) Taking relievers in the reserve rounds is a strong move if you are uncertain about your starting pitching group.

(3) Relievers, unlike starting pitchers, can contribute in all five categories.

(4) It may seem counter-intuitive, but sometimes less is more. Last season David Robertson earned $5 of fantasy value even though he threw only 60.2 innings. Lucas Harrell won 11 games, struck out 140 batters, posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 193.2 innings. While that seems like Harrell’s effort would result in better fantasy value that Robertson, would it shock you to learn that he too earned $5 last season? Remember, the league ERA last year was 4.01, the WHIP 1.31, and obviously a .500 record (Harrell was 11-11 and won only 11 games in 32 starts). The fact is that Harrell was decidedly average across the board meaning that he gave you 193.2 innings of average while Robertson gave you 60.2 innings of impressive work. In the end, their fantasy production ended up being the same.

Relievers may not be the sexy adds late in drafts, but a group of guys like those I noted above can not only provide you excellent numbers, but they can also help to cover up some weakness in your starting pitching unit while at the same time offering a tremendous chance to receive a substantial return on your investment. Don’t forget that fact on draft day cause rostering Jake McGee over a guy like Bronson Arroyo at the end of a draft might be the better long-term move in many cases.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part II, Rounds 15-28

The peeps over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (to see how others in the league constructed their clubs, click on the link above). In Part II of this three part series I will review selections made in rounds 15-28.

For a review of selections in rounds 1-14.

Round 15: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Players: Dan Haren, SP
I believe Haren will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

Round 16: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Steve Cishek, RP
Wanted Corey Hart who was taken a pick ahead. Therefore decided to make the plunge with my first closer. Stronger skills than Jim Johnson who had 51 saves last year.

Round 17: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kenley Jansen
It looks like Brandon League will be the closer to start the year, but I expect Jansen to lead the Dodgers in saves just like he did last season after starting out as a setup man. Just a massive arm.

Round 18: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B
He qualifies at both corner infield spots, will get to hit in a solid batters yard in New York, is motivated, and has reworked his swing a bit. All of those things are pluses.

Round 19: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dustin Ackley, 2B
I don’t know how he scored more than 80 runs with an OBP under .300 last year. Some slight improvement across the board could lead to 10th round production.

Round 20: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Bobby Parnell
There’s no doubting Frank Francisco has a huge arm, but elbow woes could lead to the fire balling/ground ball inducing Parnell becoming the Mets’ closer.

Round 21: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The guy I wanted (Russell Martin) was taken one pick before me (what a shock). Salty could go for 25 HRs, so he’s not an awful consolation prize.

Round 22: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shaun Marcum, SP
Injuries have sapped his value in some folks eyes, but since 2008 an average Marcum season: 11-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.91 K/BB in 168 innings.

Round 23: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Reynolds, 1B
Few seem to remember, but from 2008 an average Reynolds effort has led to 33 homers, 88 RBIs, 83 runs, 10 steals. So what if he’s hit .229 in that time? I can handle the average with my roster.

Round 24: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James McDonald, SP
A tale of two halves. In the first he was impressive (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP ). In the second he sucked eggs (3-5, 7.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP). Still has that power arm. See his Player Profile.

Round 25: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Michael Brantley, OF
Not that far away from being someone of note. He was one of nine outfielders to go .288-6-60-63-12 last season. See his Player Profile.

Round 26: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Domonic Brown, OF
I really didn’t need another outfielder after taking Brantle, but with Delmon Young nursing an ankle injury maybe, just maybe, Brown will finally flash that 20/20 talent. We can trade in this league too, and Mr. Minnix has already expressed an interest in Mr. Brown.

Round 27: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: David Robertson
Had a great season last year and people forget if he hadn’t gotten hurt it likely would have been him, and not Rafael Soriano, who led the Yankees in saves.

Round 28: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Francisco Liriano, SP
Why make the injured lefty my last selection? We’ve got two DL spots in this league. I’ll put Liriano on the DL and then grab another SP as soon as I can. See his Player Profile.

And with that all there is to do is to review the final squad which is what I will do in Part III of the series.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Relief Pitchers: Hits

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

RELIEF PITCHER: HITS

There were three relievers, outside my top-20, that I highlighted as must adds in The Draft Guide. If you listened to me and added these three relievers, on the cheap mind you, at the end of the season you would have been left with the following scintillating numbers:

11 wins, 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 246 Ks (11.48 K/9), 71 SVs in 193 IP

Oh, and I suggested taking all of these relievers as early as anyone in the industry so you were able to get phenomenal value if you did as instructed (the first man listed was the only one regularly going in the top-250 according to ADP numbers in standard mixed leagues).

Kenley Jansen (#22): Jansen saved 25 games while dominating as heartily as any hurler in the game (a recent procedure should have also cleared up the ongoing concerns with his heart condition). Just take a look at these numbers: .146 BAA, 0.85 WHIP, 13.71 K/9. It seems like the only thing that can hold him back is his health.

Tyler Clippard (#29): The Nationals righty saved 32 games stepping in when Drew Storen went down with injury, and he also added 13 holds for good measure. Clippard had a rough month of September that muddied his ratios but he still had a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with well over a K per inning (84 in 72.2 IP). Year after year he just gets batters out.

Sergio Romo (#31): I’ve said, over an over an over again, that Romo is one of the 10 best relievers in baseball. Still, when Brian Wilson went down with injury the Giants turned to Santiago Casilla to close (he ended the year with 25 saves). After Casilla finally slowed down, Romo turned into 9th inning gold. No,make that platinum. Romo had 23 holds and 14 saves (in 15 chances), and posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 10.25 K/9 an a 6.30 K/BB ratio. Nothing he did this year changed my mind at all.

Some other hits… and you know they might be few and far between as the relief position this year had more turnover than just about any season I can ever remember.

Huston Street (#12): He was limited to “only” 23 saves because of injury, but he was likely the most dominating closer in baseball not named Chapman, Kimbrel, Rodney or Jansen. Street struck out 10.85 batters per nine innings, posted a 1.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and allowed 17 hits, seventeen, in 39 innings of work. Only two other pitchers in the history of the game allowed fewer than his 3.92 hits per nine innings in a season of 35 innings – Mike Adams (3.41 in ’09) and Craig Kimbrel (3.88 in ’12).

Rafael Betancourt (#17): I’ve been talking him up for years, and he finally got the chance to be a huge fantasy contributor with his 9th inning role with the Rockies. Rafael closed the door on opponents 31 times, had a 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, struck out 57 batters in 57.2 innings and once again impressed with his 4.75 K/BB ratio. Money.

Grant Balfour (#27): He started out the year as the closer, struggled a wee bit, and lost his job to Ryan Cook. Balfour eventually regained the role and went on an amazing run in the second half (0.76 WHIP, .131 BAA over his last 33 games). All told he saved 24 games, had 15 holds, registered nearly a K per inning (72 in 74.2 IP), and dominated with a 2.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Greg Holland (#36): Seven wins, nine holds and 16 saves for a guy who was chosen in the reserve rounds is pretty darn impressive. Add in his dominating 12.22 K/9 mark and we can overlook the unsightly 4.57 walk per nine mark he posted. If he can cut that walk rate down to the league average, this is a guy who could be a top-15 RP next year.

Jonathan Broxton (#39): He stepped up when Joakim Soria need Tommy John surgery, and on the year Broxton saved 27 game between the Royals and Reds. The 2.48 ERA was impressive, but it should be noted that Broxton, who owns a career K/9 mark of 10.96, struck out only 6.98 batters per nine this season as he decided to just get ground ball after ground ball this season (his 2.22 GB/FB ratio blew away his career 1.49 mark).

Luke Gregerson (#46): Always one of my favorite final round grabs, Gregerson was allowed to do something he had never before been tasked with – working the 9th inning. He only filled in when Street was out, but after three saves in three years Gregerson’s owners weren’t complaining about his nine saves and 24 holds. Luke posted his best ERA (2.39), and that 1.09 WHIP will play in any league. An extremely stable skill set.

Glen Perkins (#50): Bet you that Perkins wasn’t drafted in your 12 team mixed league. At the end of the campaign he had 16 saves and 11 holds, while giving career bests in WHIP (1.04), K/9 (9.98) and BB/9 (2.05). A sneaky in-season add that paid huge dividends.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 5, 2012

(1) Ryan Vogelsong struggling for Giants.

(2) Kenley Jansen to return in September.

(3) Zack Greinke finally finding his groove with Angels.

(4) Andrew McCutchen back on track. Can he hold off Melky Cabrera?

(5) Adam LaRoche big time run producer.

(6) Jesus Montero solid in 2nd half.

(7) Alfonso Soriano powering the ball.

(8) Mark Reynolds also powering the ball.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Who should you be playing Friday and Saturday? In addition to that info, I’ll hit on a few of the relevant stories in the game as well.

The Dodgers, to the frustration of everyone, will use Ronald Belisario and Brandon League in the 9th inning with Kenley Jansen (heart) on the sidelines. Way to clarify that situation for us Mr. Mattingly. I’d favor Belisario, 60/40, for 9th inning work. Also, Chad Billingsley will have platlet-rich plasma injections in his elbow in the hopes that it will help him return before the end of the season. It may, or may not, get him back out on the field this season.

The Giants plan on getting Joaquin Arias more time on the field. Good idea Giants. Arias is hitting .429 with 15 RBIs in just 56 at-bats in the month of August (that average leads baseball by the way). He’s not a great hitter, not even close, but he’s rolling right now making him a wonderful NL-only option at the moment.

Carlos Pena has been told his playing time will be cut. Shocker. When you’re hitting .188 with just 16 homers you should have your playing time reduced. Looks like Jeff Keppinger will get more time at first base against left-handed pitchers. Seems like a good thing since, oh, Keppinger thinks he’s Ted Williams against lefties this year as he’s hitting .411 with a 1.005 OPS through 90 at-bats.

Alex Rodriguez (hand) could return from the DL as early as Monday. Hand/wrist injuries traditionally sap the power of batters a wee bit, so it would be wise not to expect him to have some massive month of September, but at least he might have a month to help out fantasy squads.

Josh Vitters has failed, miserably, to do anything for the Cubs. He’s been awful at the plate going 5-for-54. That’s less than a .100 batting average folks (.093). The team doesn’t want the youngster to think he’s the worst player of all-time, so they are going to manage his workload moving forward. That’s code for they are going to bench him an awful lot. Hard to believe, but Luis Valbuena appears likely to get an awful lot of work at the hot corner (that’s not code – you want to add Valbuena in NL-only leagues if he is available, even if he can’t really hit either: .227/.319/.384 in 920 career at-bats. Maybe that’s why no one has bothered to add him to their team at Fleaflicker). Speaking of youngsters, Brett Jackson’s numbers are still poor – .216 average and 37 Ks in 74 at-bats (to state it differently, he’s striking out in literally half his at-bats) – but unlikely Vitters there seems to be some short-term hope. Jackson has been a highly effective offensive performer over his last seven games with three homers, six RBIs and six runs scored. At least one of the Cubs’ youngsters is showing something.

HITTERS FOR FRIDAY

Stephen Drew vs. Aaron Cook: .342 in 38 at-bats
Jonny Gomes vs. Aaron Cook: .500-3-6 in 14 at-bats
Torii Hunter vs. Kevin Millwood: .405-2-13 in 42 at-bats
Dan Uggla vs. Roy Halladay: .355-3-7 in 31 at-bats
Chris Young vs. Aaron Harang: .316-3-5 in 19 at-bats

HITTERS FOR SATURDAY

Aaron Hill vs. Josh BeckettL .412-1-8 in 34 at-bats
Ryan Howard vs. Tim Hudson: .344-7-17 in 61 at-bats
Adam Lind vs. Jeff Niemann: .448-3-9 in 29 at-bats
Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: .500-1-3 in 26 at-bats
A.J. Pierzynski vs. Max Scherzer: .385-1-5 in 26 at-bats

PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Dan Haren vs. Mariners: 11-6, 2.69 ERA in his career.
Hiroki Kuroda: 8-straight starts 3 or fewer ERs (11 ERs total).
Adam Wainwright vs. Nats: 6-0 with a 1.80 ERA last seven starts this year.

PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Homer Bailey vs. Astros: 4-0, 1.33 ERA vs. ‘Stros. Club hitting .225 since All-Star Break.
Kyle Lohse vs. Nats: 5-0, 2.34 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over last nine starts
Max Scherzer vs. W.Sox: 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 81 Ks in 75.2 IP vs. W.Sox.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

NFL FREE ROLLS
(Sign up for free, win cash)

CRUSADER LEAGUES
(New team each week all season)

GLADIATOR LEAGUES
(Eliminator Tournament)

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August30, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you drop Drew Stubbs for Trevor Plouffe? It’s almost playoff time, and Stubbs can get ice cold as he is now.
– @joe_joe_a_go_go

Before we go bashing Stubbs, let’s not overlook what Plouffe has done, or better yet not done, of late.

Plouffe has had quite a season. In June he went deep 11 times. He also hit 14 homers in a 29 game stretch at one point. Still, he’s not exactly been Mr. Consistent. He went deep Wednesday night, his first homer since July 3rd, a span of 28 games. Plouffe also hasn’t stolen a single base this season. Plouffe is hitting .242, .017 points below the league average. Plouffe has a .312 OBP, nine points below the league average. Plouffe is also hitting .169 with a .468 OPS in August. So before we go and canonize Plouffe, let’s make sure we realize (A) who he actually is and (B) that he has been dreadful for the last month.

Stubbs hasn’t been much better of late as there is no disputing that fact as he too hasn’t reached the Mendoza Line in August. Still, he has a slightly better batting average (.187) and OPS (.486) than Plouffe. He also has the same amount of homers, one, has scored three times as many runs (14 to five), and has killed Plouffe, destroyed him, with those massively relevant six steals.

Stubbs certainly has his faults, but the only way I would drop him in favor of Plouffe was if I desperately needed help at third or shortstop, but even then I’d be reluctant to drop Stubbs since his speed would likely make more of a difference over the final month than the power potential of Plouffe.

Tommy Hanson worth owning anymore?
– @thatkidslim

Hanson has been battling shoulder woes all year. His fastball velocity is down two mph, and at times he has had had a lot of trouble throwing strikes (his walk rate per nine is up nearly three quarters of a point from his career average at 2.88). He’s still striking out his share of batters though, his 8.00 K/9 mark is strong, but after two years with a K/BB ratio over 3.00 the mark is down a full point this year to 2.07, well below the league average (2.47). When you add into that diminished ratio a league average GB/FB (1.04), a slightly elevated HR/9 (1.27) and a league average 19.8 percent line drive rate, you get basically a league average pitcher. Unfortunately, it’s a bit worse than that. He does have 12 victories, but those ratios aren’t helping anyone (4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). He’s also been pretty darn bad over his last six outings with a 6.82 ERA and 2.01 WHIP.

I don’t know the size of your league, or who you would replace him with, but it’s certainly worth investigating moving on, potentially for one of the two pitchers I’m about to discus…

Who is the better add Chris Tillman or Brett Anderson?
– @Derrickmartin

Tillman has been a star for the Orioles. In eight of 10 outings this season he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs, and if you remove those two rough outings his ERA would be 2.44 and his WHIP 1.01. Still, history says you should be very wary of Tillman. Over his first three seasons with the Orioles, 2009-11, he made 36 starts. Tillman went 7-15 with a 5.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, a 5.78 K/9 an a 1.45 K/BB ratio. Those are awful numbers. Now it’s not that he is without talent, and most around baseball have been surprised that he had been unable to make the necessary adjustments. Has he made those adjustments this season? To this point the answer is an emphatic yes. His K/9 rate is up to 7.29, his walk rate at a career best, and the resulting 2.47 K/BB ratio is a massive step forward. At the same time it’s a league average number, as is his K/9 and his GB/FB (1.03). He’s also working with a career worst line drive rate (23.0 percent) that has somehow led to a career best .254 BABIP (career .294). His 3.26 ERA really should be a run higher, and given his track record in the bigs, it’s hard to think he will be able to keep up his current pace.

Anderson has been elite since returning from Tommy John Surgery. In two starts he’s won two games while allowing one run for the Athletics. Talk about hitting the ground running. Just like with Tillman, there’s no way the current trend will continue with Anderson. The difference between the two is twofold. (1) Anderson has had more success in the big leagues. (2) He’s a more highly skilled pitcher. Anderson has made 64 starts in the big leagues resulting in a 3.55 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Tillman has only pitched at that level for two months. Anderson also sports a 3.16 K/BB ratio for his career, which when coupled with his 1.84 GB/FB ratio marks Anderson as an arm every fantasy squad would want to own – provided his arm was healthy.

I’d go with Anderson. Tillman has the advantage in that he’s been healthy all year and isn’t coming back from elbow surgery, but Anderson is the more highly skilled and the more effective hurler. Just hope the A’s don’t limit his workload because he’s just a year removed from the surgery.

Saves aren’t an issue for me, but K/9 is. Should I drop Kenley Jansen or wait and see?
– @LKrukowski

Jansen has had a recurrence of his heart issue, one that kept him out of action for a month last season. The Dodgers haven’t said that they expect Jansen to miss a month this time, but obviously one has to question whether or not Jansen will be able to return this season as he’s been termed to be out “indefinitely.” Who will the Dodgers turn to in the 9th inning in the meantime? Ronald Belisario converted the Dodgers last save chance, and he has been great this year with a 2.84 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 47 Ks in 50.2 innings. On the flip side he has all of three saves in his career. He’s likely the lead horse in the race right now though. Brandon League, who had 37 saves last season for the Mariners, could also be in the mix. Though he has struggled since being dealt to the Dodgers with a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 11 outings, he claims to have fixed a mechanical issue and has thrown 4-straight scoreless outings. The club could always recall Javy Guerra who has 29 saves for the Dodgers since the start of last season.

Should you hold on to Jansen? All depends on who you can add and where you are currently sitting in the standings. I will say that, given the uncertainty of his prognosis, that I would be reluctant to drop Jansen just yet. It’s also tough to suggest dropping a man who has 223 Ks in 137.1 innings leading to a 14.61 career K/9 mark which just so happens to be the second best mark in the history of the game for any pitcher who has tossed at least 125 innings in his career (Craig Kimbrel leads the way with a 15.63 mark).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 12, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

*Note: The following article is filled with plenty of questions that might seem knee jerk and laughable to you. Trust me though, these aren’t the only questions I’ve received along these lines. It’s like there is an epidemic of itchy trigger fingers in the world of fantasy baseball right now. Before proceeding to read my answers to today’s questions, I’d suggest that all of you take a moment to read Panic In the Streets.

A guy dropped Josh Johnson 2nite…
– @Gregor21

It’s been two starts covering 9.2 innings. If you were going to draft Johnson in the first place how on earth could you bail on him after two starts – when he’s healthy? The key with Johnson will be his health. If he can take the ball 30 times he’ll be a strong option – period. The only real issue with Johnson is his track record of ill health. The guy owns a 3.05 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and an 8.23 K/9 mark for his career. I’ll trust 735 innings over a poor 9.2 to start the 2012 season, won’t you?

Who is next in line for saves if Joe Nathan tanks?
– @Steverland

I’ll admit to understanding this question, though I’m still not a fan. Closers can lose their jobs much quicker than starters, and with roughly a third of all the big league teams making some type of change in the 9th inning versus what their plans were two months ago, I totally understand the trepidation anyone would have if they see one of their guys struggling in the 9th inning. At the same time, we’re talking about four innings with Nathan. F-O-U-R. In his first three of his outings of the year he allowed one hit, no walks, and one run. Sure he gave up three runs in his last outing, but he’s still sporting five Ks and no walks through four innings. Hell, Mariano Rivera gave up two runs while recording only a single out in his first trip to the hill this season. The Rangers manager, Ron Washington, said that he will give Nathan Thursday off to collect himself, but he also emphatically stated that Nathan is still his closer. Believe him. If I had to chose a backup option, I’d be thinking Mike Adams.

Should I drop Kenley Jansen for Fernando Rodney? No other current closers available on wire.
– @TheSchwan

This question is prompted by two things. (1) The inequitable way we reward relievers in the the fantasy game. (2) Worrying too much about right now and not enough about the next 150 games.

(1) We reward saves in the fantasy game. Therefore, any time a change is made in the 9th inning a virtual stampede occurs. No one pays any attention to the relievers and tries to decide if the pitcher is any good. All we care about is getting the saves. It’s why I’ve long championed changing saves to Solds in the fantasy game (Solds = saves+holds). If we used Solds we’d be more worried about rostering the better pitcher than we are about being consumed with adding the guy who is currently holding down the role of closer.

(2) Through a week of the season, Rodney has three saves and has looked solid whereas Jansen has done the same thing – albeit without the saves. As a result, Rodney’s current value in the fantasy game is higher despite the fact that he isn’t a better pitcher. In my book, especially this early in a season where I’m not desperate to chase saves, I’m going skills over role. That means I want Jansen. Think I’m crazy do you? Let’s compare some career numbers with the two hurlers.

Jansen: 15.23 K/9, 4.31 BB/9, 3.54 K/BB, 2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .151 BAA
Rodney: 8.20 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 1.69 K/BB, 4.26 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .242 BAA

Are you seeing what I’m seeing? Jansen betters Rodney in every category, and five of the six by a massive amount. You can roster Rodney and hope he some doesn’t revert the pitcher he has always been, but my money is on Joe Maddon realizing, sooner rather than later, that the last time Rodney was a better than average big league hurler was 2007.

I can’t keep Stephen Strasburg at the end of this year. Would you trade him for Tim Lincecum straight up?
– @SubtleStatement

This is the most reasonable question I received in the last day about Lincecum who went out and laid another egg in his second start of the season. I’m utterly amazed at how quickly people are considering bailing on Lincecum. Consider the following. (1) Lincecum has made 4-straight All-Star teams. (2) Lincecum has two two Cy Young Awards in four seasons. (3) Lincecum has never finished outside the top-10 in Cy Young Voting in four full seasons. (4) He’s the only pitcher in baseball with at least 220 Ks each of the past four seasons. No other pitcher has more than two 220 K seasons the past four years (Jon Lester and Felix Hernandez). (5) Even with his struggles this year he has 10 Ks in just 7.2 innings, and with only three walks still has a 3.33 K/BB ratio which is better than his career mark of 2.98. (6) Lincecum has done this before – struggled mightily I mean. In 2010 he went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in the month of August. He rebounded to go 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in September.

I would do this deal. It’s quite possible that Strasburg will better The Freak in both ERA and WHIP, but with the potential of 50 or more innings from Lincecum, remember the Nationals have set an innings pitched limit with Strasburg of 160, I’d take the Giants ace.

How patient should one be with Brandon Belt situation?
– @jfeiger

Great question. I’ve been on record for months now telling everyone that I didn’t see how Belt was going to get 500 at-bats this season. Most didn’t listen, everyone wants to believe that the next big thing will be the next big thing right away, but alas, the Belt situation is playing out as I expected it would. The Giants have an overpaid run producer in Aubrey Huff. Since he’s also a team leader, he figures to play almost every day, either at first or in the outfield. The Giants traded for Melky Cabrera who will play every day. They also added Angel Pagan to add a speed element that the team is sorely lacking. If all three of those guys are in the outfield than Belt can play first base. However, I’ve totally left out the Giants best defensive outfielder who just so happened to pop two long balls Wednesday in Nate Schierholtz. Obviously, this situation is going to leave one guy out in the cold every day. Given that Belt hit just .225 last year, and that he’s started out 1-for-11 this year, it appears that he is already losing ground to the other “proven” players. I’m fully aware that Belt is “the future” and that he has been given only 198 at-bats to this point of his career, but unless he turns things on quickly, or one of the other four is injured, Belt may struggle for at-bats in the early going.

What do you think about Aramis Ramirez? Buy-low trade candidate?
– @Fury5701

Remember that article I referred to at the top of the piece entitled Panic in the Streets? If you didn’t give it a read then now is the time to scroll back up to the top of the page to read it because it will point out something about Aramis Ramirez that should help you to easily answer this question.

To track who has been the best at putting up 5×5 fantasy numbers in the early going make sure to visit Fleaflicker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Mailbag: April 3, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Head to head, 9th pick 12 team. Robinson Cano, Justin Upton, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Prince Fielder. Top 2 in order please?
– @Quinn8585

Here’s the dirty little secret of fantasy baseball – no one really knows the answer to this question. We all obsess over who to take in the first an second rounds as if the answer matters more than air. In truth, no one knows. I’ve been  referring to the study in the 2012 Baseball Forecaster by Baseball HQ to make my point (pp.42-43). According to HQ’s research, over the past eight years you have a 37.5 percent chance of drafting someone in the top-15 and at the end of the year finding them inside the top-15 in production. That means, and we’re talking eight years here, that you have roughly a one in three chance of “hitting” on your first round selection. On the flip side that means 2/3′s of the players drafted in the first round this year will not return first round value when the 2012 season is complete. Remember that next time your biting your fingernails trying to figure out who the best guy is to draft in the first round. If it was my team I’d take CarGo and Robinson Cano.

I was offered a trade, Joey Votto for Prince Fielder. Maybe I’m splitting hairs but I don’t see a big difference, do you?
– @AtlFan23

Well, if we are talking about a standard 5×5 fantasy league I think there is a difference, and it’s two-fold. First, Fielder has hit .282 for his career. In two of the past four years he’s failed to reach that mark, and he’s never hit .300 in a season (he fell one hit short last year finishing at .299). Votto has hit .313 for his career, has hit at least .309 each of the past three years, and in four full big league seasons he has never hit lower than .297. Votto is clearly the better play in batting average. The second area in which he takes a step over Fielder is in the steals category. Now I doubt Votto is going to steal 16 bases again as he did in 2010, but he did flash enough speed to swipe another eight bags last year giving him a two year average of 12 steals a season. Fielder has a mere 16 steals in his career including two the past two seasons. An eight steal different doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a huge fantasy boost in value for Votto. Also, one last point that tips things in the favor of Votto. Fielder has been the slightly better power bat with bigger homer totals, but this season he moves from a park in Milwaukee that was the second best homer park in the NL the past three years for lefties (according to Park Indices), for one in Detroit that was only 10th best in the AL for lefties. It’s quite possible that the homer gap between the two disappears this season.

I was offered Kendrys Morales for Michael Young straight up – would you accept that offer?
– @Jpetermon

Hype always amazes me. Every year we see rookies and youngsters driven up to the point that they are being drafted as if they were five time all-star’s (hello Brett Lawrie and Matt Moore). We also get players who excel in spring training being drafted way too early (I’m thinking Lorenzo Cain might fit into this category this year). A player that certainly fits into this second group is Morales. I know he has gone 11-for-26 (.423) with two homers but where is this hysteria coming from? How many at-bats did Morales have last year? Zero. How many at-bats has Morales had since the All-Star break in 2010? Zero? In fact, over the past twenty two months Morales has zero big league at-bats (he last appeared in a game on May 29th, 2010). Not just that, we’re talking about 26 spring training at-bats as well, that’s the definition of small sample size. Sure he’s looked great at this dish this spring, and he was a 34 homers, 108 RBI bat who hit .306 in 2009, but Carlos Lee hit .300 with 26 homers and 102 RBI in 2009 (not exactly a great comparison I know, but hopefully you get my point). Morales might return to being a top-10 first basemen this season but there is no way I’d take him in a deal straight up for Michael Young, one of the most consistent hitters in baseball the past decade. No thanks.

Jonathan Broxton and uncertainty in Kansas City, or Mark Melancon and uncertainty in Boston?
– @mrlcpbra

I have probably, and I’m not exaggerating for effect here, received 150 questions about the Red Sox and Royals bullpen situations over the past 10 days. Hell, that number may be well over 250 to be truthful. Here’s a form of what I’ve said to everyone who has asked; when the team doesn’t even know who they are going to turn to in the 9th inning, how in the world am I supposed to know what the “right” answer is? The answer to this question basically comes down to your philosophy on relievers. Some bullet points to consider.

* I can’t read a manager’s mind. I have no idea how he will handle the 9th inning call. Will he choose to go with experience, guile, stuff, match ups?

* Teams don’t always go with their best pitcher in the 9th inning, and that makes answering this issue, from a fantasy baseball perspective, maddening. Think of the Nationals. Their best reliever is Tyler Clippard, so he should be the first choice to fill in for the injured Drew Storen. However, the team thinks that Clippard is far too important in his setup role to handle the ninth inning so it looks like the save chances will be given to Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez who are inferior pitchers to Clippard.

* If closer number one is out of commission, how long a leash will the “backup” closer have? If he blows two saves will the manager flip to option three?

* Given all of that, I target skills not role. That’s my choice. In the end I think that skills win out. Teams tire quickly – unless you’re Kevin Gregg – of seeing their closers struggle to close out games in the 9th. Eventually the most skilled players should, notice I say should, gravitate to the 9th inning (it’s why I have recommended Kenley Jansen over Javy Guerra even though Guerra is set up to be the closer to start the year for the Dodgers). Eventually if you go with the skills you will be rewarded. However, let me be clear, that does not mean you will always make the “right” fantasy choice. The fact of the matter is that you need saves, and if Javy Guerra gives you 29 saves with a 4.43 ERA he’s still going to provide more fantasy value than Jansen and his six saves and 2.13 ERA. That’s just the breaks in the standard 5×5 fantasy game.

Given all of that, I’d go with Greg Holland and Mark Melancon if I was deciding on who to add from the Royals and Red Sox bullpens.

Thirteen team 7×7 roto. Closer neglect left me with just Andrew Bailey. Free agent list dry. OK to punt? Can it be done?
– @FearNLoathinNyc

I don’t ever recommend to someone that they punt a category, but you can do it an win (it stands an even better chance of being successful in a head-to-head league than a roto league). For a breakdown of this strategy see Punting Categories – A Good Idea?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.