SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

The Old, The Young and The Pretty

Chris Carpenter was traded. Tommy Hanson has a concussion. Matt Moore won’t have an innings pitched limit. The Dodgers named their closer, an it’s not who you think. Raul Ibanez is a Yankee. Katharine McPhee is… well you have to keep reading for that.

RHP Chris Carpenter was traded to the Red Sox today. I know, crazy isn’t it? Oh wait, we’re talking about the 26 year old former Cub, not the Cy Young winning Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals. How made are you at me right now?

Tommy Hanson, who is attempting to return from shoulder woes, has reworked his mechanics to take better advantage of his lower half (i.e. his legs). While that sounds like a good thing, mechanical alterations for pitcher’s always make me a bit nervous. Now we get word that Hanson was involved in a car accident yesterday and that he received a Grade 1 concussion that will likely preclude him from doing anything for a few days. I know it’s early, but are you getting the unsettling feeling that things may not go Hanson’s way this year?

Raul Ibanez signed a one year deal for $1.1 million to join the Yankees. The 39 year old Ibanez is nothing more than an AL-only play at this stage of his career. The expectation at this point is that he will form a solid DH duo with Andruw Jones. If we combine the 2011 production of Jones against lefties and Ibanez against righties the result would be a “player” who produced the following 5×5 line: .263-24-85-36-2. The homer and RBI production is solid, but what is it with these guys aversion to crossing home plate?

Ever do situps first thing in the morning? I tried it today, an I gotta tell ya, not a huge fan. Of course, I have to keep the temple that is my body in shape, so I did it anyway while reading the newspaper (yeah I’m one of those dinosaurs who actually gets a newspaper).

Don Mattingly told Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times Tuesday that “I’m going into camp thinking Javy Guerra is the guy.” Of course he meant the 9th inning arm for the Dodgers. I know that Kenley Jansen has a huge arm, and I’m a big proponent of the record setting fireballer (see the October 6th Around the Horn), but Guerra did stabilize a Dodgers’ bullpen that was a disaster last year and in the process he only blew two of 23 save chances. With the announcement today I wonder if people will change their drafting strategy since Jansen’s ADP is 176, roughly 60 picks ahead of Guerra (233) – numbers are from MockDraftCentral.

Big news out of the Rays camp Tuesday is that the club will not have an innings pitched limit for phenom Matt Moore. Executive VP Andrew Friedman said that the arm of Moore has been “built up in a pretty systematic way” which would seem to signal that he could be allowed to toss 200-innings this year. The Rays have certainly shown the ability to develop pitching over the years so I’m inclined to trust them here. If Moore does throw 200 innings he’ll finish the year as a top-10 AL strikeout arm who could live up the billing that has his current ADP sitting at 102.4.

Manny Ramirez will arrive at Athletics camp on Friday. He’ll make $306,000 on his pro-rated contract which tells you that he really is intent on returning to the game because a guy who has made nearly $207 million in his career certainly doesn’t need a few more bucks. He’s an AL-only grab, but he did hit .298 with a .870 OPS in 90 games in 2010 so he might be worth a reserve round add.

I admit it, I’ve watched the first two episodes of Smash (albeit with the controller in my hand to fast forward the slow parts). I know that Katharine McPhee never really made it as a singer, but something about her persona on screen is certainly enticing.

Johan Santana is throwing without pain, an everyone is getting excited. Let me say it again – don’t be one of that group.  He’s coming back off major shoulder surgery and his performance has dipped year over year the past few seasons. Let him be a headache for someone else.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Can You Wait on Pitching?

On Sunday night on Livin’ the Fantasy on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we did a mock draft. Given that I’ve done so many mock drafts, an it gets old dominating every time (I’m so modest), I thought I would change things up an implement a crazy plan to see if I could do something highly unconventional (to say the least), and still put together a squad to be feared. Before I get to how my team turned out, here are the rules.

5×5 scoring
Mixed League
12 teams
Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitcher: Any nine

Drafting out of the nine hole, I decided to see what would happen if I started out taking 5-straight outfielders. Check out the powerhouse outfield I was able to assemble in the first five rounds, it’s as impressive a unit as you’ll come across – Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino. Down Crawford for his poor performance in 2011, and Upton for his poor batting average, but that’s as dynamic a group of five outfielders you could possibly assemble. All five men are going 15/15 in 2012 if they are healthy, and it’s possible, even if not probable, that all five could go 20/20.

You’re saying to yourself – well that’s great Ray but your team is going to stink since you took this tact at the draft table. My reply is hogwash. Let’s take a look at my offensive squad.

C: Yadier Molina, Chris Iannetta
1B: Mark Reynolds
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Pablo Sandoval
MI/CI: Daniel Murphy, Martin Prado
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino
UT: Alex Rios

I have a couple of average killers in Upton, Reynolds an Iannetta, but I was able to add Prado who should bounce back to hit .300 (see his Player Profile) and Daniel Murphy (see his Player Profile) to help offset those guys (not to mention .300 types like Sandoval, Kendrick and CarGo that I also rostered). I’ve also got positional flexibility with the following guys qualifying in at least two spots: Reynolds, Kendrick, Murphy and Prado. I really like this unit, and if a guy like Alex Rios bounces back like I hope/expect (see his Player Profile) then this unit will be terrific.

OK, so my offense rocked, but what about my pitching? This is where PART II of my plan came into being. Not only did I take five outfielders with my first five picks, I waited until the 14th round to take my first pitcher (I took my last offensive player, my second catcher, in round 23, but from rounds 14-22 it was pitcher-rama). So my staff must be awful waiting that long to grab arms right? You be the judge.

Brandon Morrow
Ryan Madson
Cory Luebke
Kenley Jansen
Joe Nathan
Ryan Dempster
Frank Francisco
Ricky Nolasco
Bud Norris

OK my ratios may not be great, but I three closers (Madson, Nathan and Francisco) who could give me 90 saves. I also grabbed Jansen who might be one of the five most electric pitchers in baseball. If he closes 30 saves will happen. If he serves as a setup man in Los Angeles he might lead all relievers in baseball in strikeouts. Either way, this is an impressive foursome out of the bullpen (since I waited so long on starters I thought it would make sense to try and build a strong group of relievers to challenge for the lead in saves and to also help keep my ratios in check).

As for my starters, again, their ratios may not impress. But I ask you this – how many other teams in the league have five starters who appear to be well on their way to at least 150 strikeouts? Look at these strikeout totals from last year: Morrow (203), Dempster (191), Luebke (154 in 139.2 IP), Nolasco (148) and Norris (176). Remember that I didn’t take a single hurler until the 14th round. I’ll take a staff with power arms like this almost every day of the week.

Could a team like this, heck could this team, win a championship? I certainly think it could. I also hope that this little off kilter operation will help to point out that you don’t have to, no matter what anyone says, jump into the pitcher hopper early in drafts (in this draft pitchers went way too early with seven taken in the first 28 picks). Remember, I would still, in an actual draft, have six or seven bench rounds to bolster my pitching staff, and that opportunity to build more depth would certainly provide me plenty of chances to grab some arms that could bring me solid performances in 2012. It may have not come about in a conventional manner, but I like the way this squad turned out. What about you?

 DRAFT RESULTS

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: October6, 2011

Relief Pitcher Review

(1) Jose Valverde 49-for-49 in saves.

(2) Craig Kimbrel dominates before late season letdown.

(3) Kenley Jansen historically good when it comes to strikeouts.

(4) Look how many closers came out of nowhere in 20211: Jordan Walden, Sergio Santos, Kyle Farnsworth, Fernando Salas, Javy Guerra, Mark Melancon.

By Ray Flowers

Touching the Bases

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Nick Blackburn has made nine starts this year. Though he has a 3.40 ERA, his WHIP is a pedestrian 1.40. However, what’s more interesting is that he has allowed exactly five earned runs in three starts while in his other six outings he has yet to allow more than two earned runs. In fact, in five of his nine starts on the year he has allowed zero or one earned run.

I talk about skills versus role all the time. I wish the Dodgers were listening. With Vicente Padilla on the shelf, it looks like Matt Guerrier is going to get first crack at the 9th inning for the club. MG is a perfectly solid bullpen arm, there is no disputing his track record there, but really Dodgers? Has anyone ever looked at MG and said ‘now there’s a closer’? Not once. Though his K-rate is up to 7.33 – he owns a career mark of just 5.98 – he’s also walking batters at the second worst rate of his career at 3.86. He just doesn’t have the kind of stuff you look for to close out games. Kenley Jansen has that stuff – and then some. In 44.1 innings in the bigs Jansen has a K/9 rate of 14.21, a simply amazing mark. Yes he has trouble throwing strikes, he’s walked 5.71 batters per nine on the year, but his 2.64 K/BB ratio is still light years ahead of the 1.90 mark from MG this season. I understand the Dodgers reluctance to give Jansen 9th inning work, but he’s still the arm I want to add.

Ramon Hernandez lost his 11 game hitting streak Thursday night. On the year he is hitting .337 though, so don’t feel too sorry for him. His career mark by the way is .266.

I posed this question on Twitter, and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of the dark haired beauty. If you had your choice, and by “you” I mean me when I make it big and head to Hollywood, would you rather date Mila Kunis or Natalie Portman?

Howie Kendrick might miss a couple of games with a tender hamstring, but he has been a force all season long for the Angels. Kendrick, who leads the AL with 19 multi-hit games on the year, is hitting .322 with seven homers, 18 RBI and four steals. He is the only second baseman in baseball to have reached all four of those marks. Do you all remember back in March when I had Kendrick ranked as my 68th best player in my Top-300? I remember quite a few people saying I was an idiot. Well, so far so good. Of course, there is always the chance that he ends up no the DL as his history would suggest, but I’m keeping the faith with the second baseman/first baseman/outfielder (this season he has appeared in 30 games at second, 12 at first and nine in the outfield).

Albert Pujols has gone 91 at-bats with a home run. Erick Aybar hit one 15 at-bats ago. In 10 seasons Pujols has never failed to hit at least 32 homers. Will this be the first year that he fails to hit 30 (he has seven in 45 games)?

Everyone loves to hate on B.J. Upton. Don’t get me wrong I get it, the guy is a total flake, fails to hustle at times, and clearly has a .10 cent head, but man does the guy have skills. After a so-so start in April, he has exploded in May for a .295 average, four homers, 16 RBI and a .918 OPS. Unfortunately he has stolen only one base on the month, but he is still well on pace to go 25/25 this year, and there just aren’t that many guys in the game who can do that.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 12, 2011

(1) The walking wounded – Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Kendrys Morales.

(2) Poor Hong-Chih Kuo.

(3) Eduardo Sanchez the Cardinals’ closer?

(4) Russell Martin slumping.

(5) Dallas Braden, Chris Young out with shoulder surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 6, 2011

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury has a 14-game hitting streak.

(2) Roy Halladay and David Price dominating.

(3) Roy Oswalt back acting up. Could he be DL bound?

(4) Jonathan Broxton to the DL.

(5) Joe Mauer still a few weeks away.

(6) Josh Hamilton could be back at end of May.

(7) Eric Hosmer called up by Royals. Who is Eric Hosmer?

By Ray Flowers