Hot Stove: Signings Galore

Its been another wild and wooly day in the world of baseball as a whole handful of fantasy relevant players have decided where they will play in 2011.

Edwin Encarnacion: Well look at that. After casting EE adrift because they didn’t want to overpay him (he was picked up off waivers by the Athletics who subsequently decided not to offer him a contract as he was non-tendered), the Blue Jays brought Encarnacion back into the fold. Paid $4.75 million last season, Encarnacion signed a one year deal for $2.5 million with a club option of $3.5 million for 2012. You might not be aware, but Edwin hit 21 homers last season which is more than Scott Rolen (20), Kevin Youkilis (19), Casey Blake (17) and Kevin Kouzmanoff (16) despite the fact that he had just 332 at-bats. A poor third basemen, it appears that the current plan is for Edwin to see some time at third, first and DH this season, potentially splitting time with Adam Lind at 1B/DH. For more of the Encarnacion love fest make sure you read Jason Collette’s Free Agent Forecast: E5 where he expounds about his unhealthy man-crush on the free swinging infielder (it’s kind of creepy how much Jason digs Edwin… I’m just saying Jason).

Bobby Jenks: Buster Olney is reporting that the Red Sox and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks have agreed to a 2-year deal for $12 million. This signing is a bit odd since the Red Sox already have young flame thrower Daniel Bard, not to mention closer Jonathan Papelbon. It’s pure speculation at this point, but why would the BoSox bother to bring in Jenks to pitch the 7th inning? The point is, they wouldn’t. This leads to the obvious – perhaps the Red Sox are going to rid themselves of Papelbon. Problem is, Jonathan is coming off his worst season since becoming the closer, and he will likely make upwards of $11 million or more through arbitration. Who wants to take on a slumping closer who will make more than $11 million, especially when he will become a free agent after the 2011 season (for more on Papelbon see Around the Horn: Offseason Moves)? Good question. As for Jenks, he is coming off a career worst 4.44 ERA and a five year low of 27 saves, but he actually pitched very, very well. In addition to a five year best with a K/9 rate of 10.42, Jenks also managed the best GB/FB ratio of his career at a superb 2.80. If he combines those two numbers again in 2011, his ERA should fall by at least a run if not back into the 2′s.

Russell Martin: I wrote about Martin’s decision to sign a one year deal with the Yankees in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker. Now comes word that during his physical it was determined that he will need minor knee surgery. The Yankees still signed him to the contract with this knowledge, so you have to think the issue is relatively minor, but it can’t make you feel good about Martin’s 2011 outlook given that he is coming off of two mediocre seasons (at best) and a fractured hip. He’s dropping down my draft list.

Magglio Ordonez: Jon Heyman is reporting that Mags will return to the Tigers on a 1-year deal for a rather large $10 million. The Tigers likely had to overpay a bit since they only wanted to do a one year deal with a guy coming back from ankle surgery. Ordonez has been working out and is said to already be close to 100 percent healthy. For more on Ordonez and his prospects for the upcoming season check out Around the Horn: Offseason Moves.

Josh Willingham: Buster Olney is reporting that Willingham will be dealt to the Athletics in exchange for two players (one who has major league experience). I have to hand it to the A’s, they are doing some nice things. Not only have they added two arms to what was potentially the best staff in the AL last year with Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy, they have also augmented the offense by adding Hidkei Matsui, David DeJesus and now Willingham (you can read more about the addition of Harden in Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News and more about Matsui in the link above in the Martin writeup). Willingham missed the end of 2010 because of knee surgery, and he will be a free agent after the coming campaign, but the guy can hit. Over the past five years Josh has averaged 20 homers and 66 RBI a season despite an average of just 434 at-bats a year. It is a concern that Oakland’s home park doesn’t reward power hitters, and that Willingham hasn’t had even 430 at-bats in any of the last three seasons, but he does add some needed thump to a lineup whose biggest home run hitter in 2010 was Kevin Kouzmanoff with 16.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Failures

Today was a good day. I accomplished all the writing I had hoped to get to, answered a ton of emails, had a strong podcast this morning with Kyle Elfrink, and closed down the day with a nice two hour shift of Live Advice. Before I drift off into the mist of Friday night, and a potential date (keep your fingers crossed), I thought I would wrap up the day with some notes from what is going on around the diamond, so here goes nothing.

Giants fans, here is your catcher update for the week. Bengie Molina is second on the Giants with eight RBI and he is batting .317 through 12 games. Amazingly, he also has two walks already, a breakneck pace for a guy who walked 13 times last year in 132 games (how pathetic is that and the corresponding .285 OBP?). Down on the farm the heir apparent, Buster Posey, is batting .373 through 15 games. Buster also has eight walks against nine strikeouts helping him to post a .457 OBP and a .949 OPS. There is no doubt that Posey already has a better approach at the dish than Molina, but Molina has enough power at the plate, and works very well with the staff on defense, so don’t be at all surprised to see Posey continue to toil away in the minors for a while unless there is an injury with the Giants.

The A’s Kevin Kouzmanoff has hit .215 with .308 SLG and a .572 OPS in his first 17 games with his new club. Some other disturbing numbers with KK follow. (1) He is hitting .056 with RISP (1-for-18). (2) He is batting .156 with runners on base. (3) Fifty-eight of his 66 ABs this season have come out of the cleanup spot. The A’s finally dropped him to sixth in the order the other night.

Manny Ramirez has been placed on the DL with a calf injury. It’s being called a strain so let’s hope that 15 days on the sidelines will be enough to cure him. Xavier Paul has been recalled from the minors to take his roster spot, though it looks like Reed Johnson and Garret Anderson will likely take Manny’s place in the everyday lineup. None of those three have close to the presence of Manny, and none figure to be able to match his early season work at the dish either (.415 with a 1.159 OPS through 13 games). I really went out on a limb with that statement didn’t I?

The Red Sox have been about as successful throwing out attempted base thieves this season as I have been trying to convince beautiful ladies to go out with me. Let’s just say neither of us has had a high success rate, but I would have to think my mark is better than the what the Red Sox have been getting from Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek (the Sox have thrown out just one of 38 steal attempts). The rumor is that the Sox have an interest in bringing Chris Snyder out east to join their club. Of course, this won’t happen for a while as the D’backs can’t afford to move Snyder at least until Miguel Montero returns from his knee injury. Snyder has thrown out just 25.9 percent of base stealers in his career, and is only 2-for-12 this year (16.7 percent), but the Sox are fairly desperate at this point because of their inept duo.

Ryan Zimmerman is out of the lineup on Friday after injuring his other hamstring. He also figures to miss Saturday’s game, but the belief is still that he should be good enough to go come next week. Cristian Guzman will continue to fill in with Adam Kennedy at second and Ian Desmond playing short.

Ben Zobrist was given a 5-year deal that could be worth up to $32.5 million dollars after last year’s breakout season. Apparently he’ll get about $18 million guaranteed with a couple of option years that could take the deal up to that original total. The Rays aren’t usually wrong with their talent evaluation, and they certainly have to be proactive given their financial situation, but that seems like a fair bit of loot to lavish on a guy who has only one full big league season under his belt.

Finally, here are a couple of links to stories I wrote on Friday.

What are the Cubs thinking with their move of Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen? Impact Report: Gorzelanny/Silva/Zambrano.

For those of you who have a special place in your heart for hockey, here is a quick jaunt around the frozen pond where I discuss all the first round playoff matchups. Frozen Pucks.

By Ray Flowers

MLK Special

I know, I know, it’s Martin Luther King day which is a holiday, and I’ve already been castigated at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page for being so stupid as to work on the holiday. Still, I couldn’t help myself, I just had to get a few thoughts on the page before taking the afternoon off prior to attending the San Jose Sharks game with the Calgary Flames tonight.

* Eric Byrnes wants to return to the Bay Area in 2010. Injuries have ruined his play the past two years, and he is owed $11 million in 2010. However, whoever picks him up at this point is only on the hook for the veteran minimum as the D’backs will have to foot the bill for the rest. Byrnes grew up in the Bay Area and was a Giants fan as a kid, so this would be a great story. The Giants could certainly use a solid depth outfielder with energy, and if healthy, Byrnes is just that type of guy. Will the cheap ass Giants pay the major league minimum for the guy? Hard to cry poor when the cost is that low.

* Johnny Damon continues to float in the sea of free agency with no land in sight. Apparently no one wants a guy who can hit .280 with 20 homers and 90 runs scored. Oh yeah, his agent is Scott Boras so the fact that he is asking for $197 million might have something to do with the fact that he has been cast adrift.

* Kevin Kouzmanoff will play third base most of the time this season for his new club – the Athletics. The club is looking at Eric Chavez, if healthy, to fill a utility role playing third, first, possibly some outfield, and even some shortstop. I’m not kidding, shortstop. It was his position growing up, but an aging player with a bad back – does it make sense to move him over there at this point? To read more about the Chavez situation click on Susan Slusser’s piece.

* The Nationals are a mess. Make a decision will you! They still aren’t certain what they are going to do with Cristian Guzman and Ian Desmond. Most assumed that Guzman would move to second with the younger and more athletic Desmond taking over at short. However, the Nats continue to be tied to Orlando Hudson which would almost certainly leave Guzman at short and Desmond at Triple-A to start the year.

Even more of a concern to me is that the club seems uncertain with what they are going to do in the ninth inning. Despite signing Matt Capps, there are still words coming out of Washington that even though he will get the first shot at the closers role that he is far from a lock to hold down the role. “I’d probably start with Capps and go from there,” manager Jim Riggleman said. “There are times you’re facing a ball club such as the Phillies, where they’ve got a strong left-handed lineup, that it might be Sean Burnett or Eddie Guardado, and then maybe you give it to Capps or Brian Bruney or whoever’s freshest.” Seriously Mr. Riggleman? If you go with Burnett or Guardado for any length of time your tenure as the manager in Washington will be short. Stick Capps in the ninth, use Bruney in the 8th, and save Burnett/Guardado for matchup work in the seventh and eighth. That’s a recipe for success.

* Jim Thome still can’t find a home. Odd how no AL team wants a DH who will hit 25 homers with a .365 OBP.

By Ray Flowers

Thursday, Thursday, Thursday

I was glancing at the box scores of some of the “early” games from Thursday and thought I would point out a few of the players that stood out to me for one reason or another. After that, I’ll touch on the worst starting rotation in baseball that can’t get enough of what they are doing so they will be adding a sixth guy into the mix for even more fun.

The Neftali Feliz watch is up to 13 – that is the number of strikeouts he has racked up in 6.2 innings of work this season. Put it this way, Feliz has gotten outs via the strikeout 65% of the time. He also hasn’t walked a single batter on the year.

Just when you were starting to panic a bit that an injury to Dexter Fowler’s knee, combined with the recent hot hitting of Carlos Gonzalez (16-for-38, .421 the past three weeks) might lead to reduction in playing time for Fowler – stop worrying. Fowler had a monster game on Thursday going 4-for-5 with three doubles leading to three runs scored. Lo and behold Fowler is now hitting .271 overall, the highest his average has been since May 25th, as he has hit a scintillating .455 in nine games in August during which time he has scored 10 runs. He still has a lot of room for growth at the dish, but the youngster seems to be grabbing his second wind right now and that is great news for those who have held on to the youngster.

Garret Jones meet regression. Jones blasted an amazing 10 home runs in his first 19 games this season as everyone scrambled to add the next Babe Ruth to their roster. Well, that pace predictably slowed as Jones has gone deep just two times in his last 17 games, but even worse, his average has plummeted. On Thursday Jones was 0-for-4 with the “golden sombrero, aka four strikeouts, to drop his average to a still sold .288. However, it has been a rough ride in August as he is hitting just .239 on the month. All good things come to an end, and it looks like that time is now for Mr. Jones.

I know it’s a total mirage, akin to my ever being able to convince a beautiful woman to keep me around, but did you get a load out of the series that Kevin Kouzmanoff had against the Brewers? The man went 11-for-13, something you probably couldn’t do in your local softball league, as his season long average went up a full .018 points to a respectable .264.

Cliff Lee has won six straight starts and is now 3-0 with a 1.12 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in three appearances with the Phillies. In those three starts he has also thrown 24 out of 27 innings. You think the Phils are happy with their trade deadline acquisition?

You will be forgiven if you don’t know who Mike Rivera is. Who is he? He is the Brewers’ backup backstop who rarely plays given that he plays behind iron man Jason Kendall. This season has been another disappointing campaign at the dish for Kendall who is hitting just .232 with a sickly .318 OBP and 29 RBI in his 332 ABs this season. As for Rivera, he is hitting just a bit better at .239, but after a two home run, five RBI effort on Thursday he now has one more homer than Kendall (one) and just 18 RBI less despite 265 fewer at-bats. Yeah, pretty striking isn’t it?

I touched on my concern over how pathetic the Orioles rotation is at this point yesterday in Frustration All Around (how upset does that mascot look by the way?). Now comes word that the Orioles will go with a 6-man rotation for the rest of the year, and we all know how successful that has been through the years. Who are those arms? Are you sitting down? Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jeremy Guthrie, David Hernandez and Brad Bergesen. One day we might say we knew them when, but for 2009 that looks like an awfully spotty group of major league hurlers.

By Ray Flowers