On the Hill

It’s Monday and I’m writing this report from the FSTA Conference in San Francisco. Don’t believe any of the reports of late night gallivanting… OK, maybe you can believe some of them. Regardless how many Vodka and Red Bull’s I pulled back on last night, there’s still plenty going on in the world of baseball that deserves my, and your, attention.

When does a demotion to the minor leagues mean a guy has gained value? When that player is a pitcher who is relieving but being looked at to join the starting rotation. That’s the situation with Andrew Cashner. A middle reliever for the Padres, he’s been sent down to stretch out his arm as the club has made the decision that they need a starter who isn’t 39 years old (have you seen some of the garbage that the Padres have been running out there this year?). Cashner was hitting 100 mph in his first start of the year against the Brewers (he lasted just 2.1 innings), and he could be back by the end of the month.

R.A. Dickey has been amazing since the start of the 2010 season. In that time Dickey has taken the hill 72 times leading to a 2.97 ERA for the Mets. How impressive is that number? Among NL hurlers who have tossed 400-innings since the start of the ’10 season, Dickey’s ERA is the 6th best mark in the NL – sixth. That mark is even lower this year at 2.44 as Dickey’s knuckler is simply nearly unhittable right now. Dickey has won nine games on the year including each of his last seven decisions and he’s picked up a win in each of his last four games. In those four contests he’s gone at least seven innings each time, has allowed a total of one run, and he’s working on a 24.2 inning scoreless streak. Most amazing of all? How about the fact that he’s racked up at least eight Ks in each of his last five outings and 78 in 81 innings on the year. Knuckle ballers just aren’t supposed to be able to do that. Truly impressed am I.

Felix Hernandez (back) will take the hill Tuesday for the Mariners after missing his last turn though the rotation. After allowing nine runs in his last two outings, an at least 10 hits in three of his last five starts, King Felix has the look of a guy who has been struggling with health for a while. Still, he has 81 Ks in 81.2 innings, and his 3.42 ERA and 1.26 WHIP aren’t awful by any means given his recent slump.

Daisuke Matsuzaka won 18 games with a 2.90 ERA. Since then, he’s been worse than replacement level, just look at the numbers: 16-16, 5.08 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.73 K/BB. He’s  back with the Red Sox, and he did have eight Ks in five innings, but he’s got a ton of proving to do before I’d suggest anyone in a 10 or 12 team mixed league looked his way.

Kevin Millwood combined with five other Mariners pitchers to toss the 10th combined no-hitter in big league history last Friday. Why didn’t Millwood finish the game? He injured his groin making warmup tosses before the 7th inning. Good news out of Seattle in that Millwood might be able to make his next start an it’s also not likely that he will need a stint on the DL. Somehow Millwood has allowed a total of six earned runs in his last six outings. I smell a sell high opportunity here – don’t you?

Chris Sale lowered his ERA to 2.05 after eight shutout innings Saturday. He also lowered his WHIP to 0.92 for the Pale Hoes. Everyone knows how great he has been this year, but he’s been out of control of late. In his last five starts, all wins, Sale has allowed four runs. He’s also walked just seven batters while punching out 43 batters in 36.2 innings. Oh yeah, he’s also gone at least seven innings in 4-straight outings. All of this just makes that soap opera week with him being hurt, being demoted to the pen, being named the closer, and then being placed back in the rotation even more vexing. Here’s an interesting question to ponder – could a starting pitcher be sent to the bullpen and then win the Cy Young award in the same season? If Sale keeps up this pace we just might find out.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 8: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Felix Doubront (+38, $288K in DailyJoust Salary)
He has won three of his last four starts, and over his last three outings he’s allowed only five runners to cross home plate (four earned). He continues to pile up the strikeouts, 16 in his last 11.2 innings and 53 in 50 innings on the year, showing his high upside arm. He’s still walked a few too many though with a 4.14 per nine mark, and he’s actually given up a ton of hard hit balls as well (25 percent line drive rate). It’s a big arm that Dubront owns, but I can forsee some inconsistency in his future.

Kevin Millwood (+123, $361K)
Where has this come from? I have no idea either. Over his last three starts Millwood has three victories, has allowed only five hits and a mere run while striking out 15 in 22 innings. Millwood hasn’t pitched like this since, jeez, probably back in 2005. He’s not going to keep this up, his 3.72 ERA and 1.29 WHIP marks are unlikely to hold, but he is locked in right now and may make a nice matchup play, especially when pitching at home.

Jonathon Niese (+44, $219K)
Niese has an over four ERA, and that 1.31 WHIP is solid but not great. Still, there are seeds of success here. Niese has a 7.87 K/9 mark, a solid total, but he needs to bring down the 3.58 walk per nine mark (it’s 3.06 for his career). If he reigns in the free passes, and keeps that impressive 1.88 GB/FB ratio going, he’s bound to drop that ERA into the 3′s.

Mark Teixeira (+37, $112K)
You can only keep a good man down for so long. Dealing with a nasty respiratory issue Tex’s bat has finally awoken. Mark has come alive at the dish with eight hits the last three days including three big flies and eight RBI. He’s pushed his average up to a more palatable .254, and don’t forget that, for whatever reason, Teixeira always seems to improve each year as the weather warms.

Alex Rios (+24, $99K)
Alex Rios is hitting a solid .281 on the year, and he has eight hits in his last five games. Included in those eight hits are three homers and nine RBI as he’s also tossed in a steal, his fifth of the year. He still has a long ways to go to live up to my expectations for him, but his current pace certainly looks a lot more impressive thanks to his hot week at the dish.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Josh Bell (-34, $55K)
I’m sorry folks, but Josh Bell can’t hit. There I said it. It’s only been 13 at-bats but we’re looking at two hits an a .154 average for the D’backs “third baseman.” Per his modus operandi, all Bell has done is strike out (five) and never walk (zero free passes) leaving him with a total of 83 strikeouts in 233 at-bats, an awful total. Add in his six career walks and you have someone with a 0.07 BB/K mark for his career. I didn’t even know that was possible.

Lance Lynn (-70, $246K)
Lynn has failed to go more than six innings in his last four starts, and he’s also allowed 10 runs over his last three outings leading to a 5.00 ERA. Given his overall numbers which include a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP it’s not at all surprising to see Lynn start to fall back to earth a bit. He’s been impressive to this point, but there is regression forthcoming.

Alex Rodriguez (-21, $87K)
Hitting .297 with a .796 OPS, ARod is underperforming. He’s still on pace for about 20 homers, but that’s a far cry from the 30 we are used to seeing. His total of 19 RBI also puts him on pace for less than 80, and the last time that happened in a full season was – never (he’s never had fewer than 84 RBI in a season of 440 at-bats). At least he’s stolen six bases to give him some fantasy value while he tries to figure things out at the dish.

Mike Trout (-23, $88K)
Hitting .302 with four homers, 12 RBI, 18 runs and eight steals in just 27 games is an epic start to Trout’s career. Epic. There’s been some give in his game of late as he’s seen his average drop .048 points the past week as the strikeouts have started to pile up (he has eight in six games). What, you thought he was going to flash HOF levels of production in his first full season?

Ben Zobrist (-19, $64K)
Zobrist is hitting .206. Awful. What makes it even more odd is the fact that he is barely hitting .200 despite the fact that he has three more walks than strikeouts (35 to 32). As a result of the free passes his .352 OBP is only one point short of the .353 mark he had last year when he batted .269. On pace to pretty much match last years total of 20 homers, though to fall well behind in RBI/runs, Zobrist seems primed for a run of effectiveness, but for right now he is awfully cold at the dish.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers