This week on “The Fantasy Beat” Justin ‘Fensty’ Fensterman and Trevor Ray talk about two-start pitchers for next week and how to add two-start pitching to your overall fantasy baseball strategy of stream-lining pitchers throughout the season.
Kevin Guasman, Kevin Slowey, Jose Fernandez, Ervin Santana, James Shields, Mike Leake, Dan Straily
Fantasy baseball is about adapting to change, whether it’s do to injury or performance. Keeping up with the Jones’, DraftDay.com has decided to change things up in their partnership with BaseballGuys by offering a new contest for you to enter in daily fantasy baseball.
*** After detailing the game I’ll list for you some of the best plays of the day at the bottom of the piece.
MLB Rapid Fire Game at DraftDay
There are five 1-on-1 matchups for Friday’s MLB Games (this contest is obviously for Friday, not Thursday). If you’re able to go 3-for-5, come on you can do that, you will double your entry fee (the cost is just $1.10 to enter).
What’s the Special Offer?
DraftDay.com is offering a 100 percent money-back guarantee if you don’t win (two or less correct picks) your Rapid Fire game this Friday (only on $1.10 level).
Too good to be true? Hardly. Here are the rules.
1. Make your picks and enter for $1.10 (only the $1.10 is eligible for money-back offer).
2. If you don’t have a DraftDay account, make one when prompted.
For those who feel think a mere 3-for-5 day is too simple you can play DraftDay’s Rapid Fire Max games where if you go 5-of-5 your winnings end up being 20 times your entry fee (there’s no refund action in this game though).
When is This Contest?
Picks have to be submitted by first pitch on Friday. You can edit your player selections up until game-time.
So to enter the contest click on this link to DraftDay.com. Come on folks, if John Buck can go 3-for-5 so can you.
THURSDAY MATCHUPS
For those of you looking for some help for today, here are some solid matchups.
CATCHERS
1. J.P. Arencibia
2. Miguel Olivo
JPA has gone deep and produced six hits in 12 at-bats against Hiroki Kuroda. JPA also blasted his AL leading 8th bomb Wednesday.
Olivo owns Edwin Jackson in their limited battles. Olivo has gone deep twice with six RBIs as he has produced four hits in just eight at-bats.
FIRST BASE
1. Mike Napoli
2. Greg Dobbs
Not only is Napoli hitting .274 with an .889 OPS but his total of 26 RBIs leads baseball.
Dobbs has only nine at-bats against Edwin Jackson (two hits), but he’s always been a better hitter against righties in his career. Honestly, it’s not like that is really saying that much.
SECOND BASE
1. Steve Lombardozzi
2. Jamey Carroll
It looks like Lombardozzi might get a chance to start at second base for the Nationals as Danny Espinosa‘s struggles continue (.155/.197/.293 in 58 ABs). Lombardozzi is batting .345 and gets to face Bronson Arroyo, not exactly the toughest right in the game (Lombardozzi’s OPS is .096 points higher versus righties than lefties in his career).
Carroll has three hits, two runs and an RBI in his last two games and in his career against the Rangers he has hit .360 with a .875 OPS over 86 at-bats. I know, pretty impressive for a guy who owns a career mark of .697 in the OPS column.
THIRD BASE
1. Josh Donaldson
2. Manny Machado
Machado gets to face the struggling Parker of the Athletics while Donaldson faces the Orioles Hammel. Donaldson has five hits and four RBIs in his last three games and Machado has 10 hits in his last seven games while he has driven in seven runners.
SHORTSTOP
1. Josh Rutledge
2. Robert Andino
Rutledge is 4-for-9 against the D’backs Cahill and he has a hit in 5-straight. He’s also gone deep three times, while stealing five bases, in 20 games. The 18 runs scored is also an impressive mark (eight in eight games).
Andino was named the starter for the Mariners after the team grew a bit weary of Brendan Ryan‘s poor hitting. It’s not like Andino is an accomplished hitter in his own right, but he is batting .364 the past week and he does have one hit in three at-bats against the Angels’ Richards.
OUTFIELD
1. Vernon Wells
2. Ichiro Suzuki
Both of the Yankees outfielders get to face Mark Buehrle, a pitcher they both own. Wells has been insanely effective against MB hitting, get this, .489 with two bombs in 47 at-bats. Ichiro has only hit .431 against MB in 51 at-bats. Slacker.
STARTING PITCHERS
1. Hiroki Kuroda
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Garrett Richards
4. Trevor Cahill
Kuroda faces the Blue Jays, a team he held to one run back on April 20th over 7.1 innings. In four career starts against the Jays he has a 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 4.40 K/BB ratio.
Slowey has a 1.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through four starts, and in each game he has held the opposition to two or fewer runs. He doesn’t beat himself with six walks on the year, and for what it’s worth his one start against the Cubs he punched out 10 batters in six innings.
Richards faces the Mariners a team he has racked up 14 Ks an a 3.27 ERA against over 11 career innings. Richards also had a 2.55 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over 17.2 innings this season.
Cahill has a tough matchup against the Rockies, but he’s pitching at home where he has had success this season (3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18 Ks in 18 IP). He also held the Rockies to three earned runs in seven innings the last time he faced the Rockies, and that was in Colorado.
By Ray Flowers
Things are really heating up at the Winter Meetings, and it appears that the Marlins are plenty serious about being the story to emerge from the festivities. But before I get to that, we had a couple of deals take place in the last 24 hours as pitchers are the target of seemingly every team.
Sergio Santos was an excellent bullpen arm for the White Sox last year. After every other White Sox bullpen arm was seemingly given a shot to handle 9th ining duties, Santos stepped up and solidified the role on his way to 30 saves in 36 chances. He walks too many batters, 4.12 per nine innings last year, but it’s easy to forgive that when you look over at the K/9 column and see 13.07. Santos signed a deal with the White Sox that will pay him only $8.25 million the next three years, though there are three other team options after that for $6 million, $8 million and $8.75 million (basically his team has him under control for 6-years at a cost of about $31 million). That “cheap” cost made him an excellent option to deal for the White Sox, and they did just that Tuesday sending him to the Blue Jays for minor leaguer Nestor Molina (there is no truth to the rumor that he is related to Nestor The Long Eared Christmas Donkey). White Sox fans will be furious at this deal since Molina is likely a couple of years away from being a major player, but after a year at Single and Double-A in which he posted a 12-3 record, 2.21 ERA 10.22 K/9 an a stupendous 9.25 K/BB mark, the future is bright for the 22 year old righty.
Kevin Slowey is someone I’ve long been in the corner of (check out the Player Profile I wrote back on March 28th, 2011). However, two issues have precluded him from reaching the heights that I think he can. (1) The guy just can’t stay healthy. In two of the last three seasons he’s failed to reach 100-innings. (2) He gives up way too many fly balls (48 percent of batted balls in his career), and they leave the yard at a near crippling rate (1.42 homers per nine innings). Therefore, the Rockies move to deal for him makes little sense to me. The Rockies think he can be a solid #4 or #5 starter, but given the enviornment in Colorado Slowey seems like a horrible addition given his long ball woes.
Aaron Harang had a decent season with the Padres going 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. However, the San Diego born righty, who also went to San Diego State, wasn’t able to work out a deal with the Padres. No matter, He’ll end up merely needing to rent a U-Haul truck to move his stuff to Los Angeles after he agreed to a 2-year deal with the Dodgers ($12 million).
Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and the Marlins and the Cardinals are the two teams bidding most heavily for his services. Reports are circulating, including one by Bob Nightingale, that the Marlins have extended an offer to Pujols worth more than $200 million. The Cardinals are still in the mix, but it’s growing more likely by the minute that Pujols’ decision won’t have to be about one team outspending the other, it will be about where he wants to play for the next decade.
Andrew Bailey is on the market, though the Athletics asking price is apparently so high that Bailey may as well not be available. So far it seems like one of those situation where the A’s are saying ‘if you overpay we’ll give him to you’ but few teams seems willing to meet the exorbinant price the A’s are asking for in return for their often dominating closer who is under their control through 2014.
Jimmy Rollins was thought to be almost as good as gone from the Phillies 36 hours ago. There is now some growing optimism that he could return, though it still seems like the club is unwilling to go 5-years on a deal like Rollins wants. If the Phils are unable to come to an agreement they will look to add Aramis Ramirez while at the same time moving Placido Polanco to free up some cash. If Rollins returns, look for the Phils to go with Polanco as their third baseman and pass on Ramirez.
By Ray Flowers
I like to hold myself accountable, and I started that process yesterday when I took a look at my thoughts about a handful of hitters that I profiled in depth. Today, I’ll continue that process by taking a look at the pitchers I reviewed at the beginning of the 2011 season.
In the section of my website titled PLAYER PROFILES, you can find all the 2011 Player Reviews I wrote. In the piece today I’ll review my recommendations. While you can review the whole reports if you click on the link above, I’ll truncate things today by quoting only a section of my reviews (in italics), before giving my thoughts on how things turned out.
NOTE: I will grade myself on the scale of single, double, triple, home run
To see my review of the hitters click on the link to Player Profiles: 2011 Review.
Aaron Harang: 14-7, 3.64 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.37 WHIP in 170.2 IP
“At this point Harang should be viewed as nothing more than a solid depth starter in mixed leagues because he still has to prove he can effectively take the ball 30 times before you should think about going all in with him. Still, the early returns are positive and it’s very difficult to envision a scenario in which he shouldn’t be rostered in a 12 team mixed league.”
Harang didn’t make 30 starts though he got close with 28. His ERA was as good as his heyday (it was 3.83, 3.76 and 3.73 from 2005-07), and his WHIP was two hundredths off his career mark of 1.37. He also won 14 games, the third highest total of his career. His K-rate was down nearly a full batter though at 6.54 per nine (career 7.37). He had a solid season, thanks in no small part to Petco Park.
TRIPLE
Kevin Slowey: 0-8, 6.67 ERA, 34 Ks, 1.40 WHIP in 59.1 IP
“At this point it looks like Slowey will need an injury, or trade out of Minnesota, to become a mixed league option in 2011. As such, he is nothing more than a late round gamble since he could conceivably end up making 50 appearances out of the bullpen this year.”
A total failure because of injuries. Slowey only started eight games for the Twinkies, and though he did some nice things such as posting a terrific 6.80 K/BB ratio, pretty much every other facet of his game blew chunks.
SINGLE
Rafael Betancourt: 2-0, 2.89 ERA, 73 Ks, 0.87 WHIP in 62.1 IP
“… if your weapon of choice is an NL-only league, then you’ve found a bullpen ace to target in Betancourt.”
Betancourt took over as the closer late in the year for the Rockies as Huston Street was once again injured (Rafael ended the year with eight saves). Just how good was Rafael this year? He was probably the best pitcher in baseball after the All-Star break.
2nd half: 0.33 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, 13.00 K/9, 39.00 K/BB
Also, like I wrote about in The Strikeout: Relievers back in February, Betancourt is now the only pitcher in the history of the game, THE ONLY ONE, with a 9.50 K/9 mark an a 4.35 K/BB ratio in more than 500 career innings (9.64 K/9, 4.65 K/BB in 560 IP).
HOME RUN
Tim Stauffer: 9-12, 3.73 ERA, 128 Ks, 1.25 WHIP in 185.2 IP
“Will Stauffer be a mixed league option in 2011? He might be if he is given 30 starts, but that doesn’t mean I would go all in on him. Conversely, I do think he is a strong option in NL-only leagues while at the same time being someone you can consider rostering in deep mixed leagues in the reserve rounds.”
He really limped to the finish line frustrating many owners, but overall Stauffer was as good as advertised for the Padres. He eclipsed his career-high in innings pitched by 103, but still match his career marks in ERA (3.73 in 2011, 3.92 for his career), WHIP (1.25 and 1.31) and K/9 (6.20 and 6.17) while bettering his career GB/FB (1.82 and 1.50) and walk rate (2.57 per nine, 3.03 for his career).
HOME RUN
Josh Beckett: 13-7, 2.89 ERA, 175 Ks, 1.03 WHIP in 193 IP
I could sit here and tell you I was right, and I was spot on with Beckett. Do yourself a favor though and read the piece to show you why a little good detective work by yours truly should have given you all the confidence in the world with Beckett for 2011 – Is Josh Beckett Finished?
HOME RUN
Rafael Soriano: 2-3, 4.12 ERA, 8.24 K/9, 1.30 WHIP in 39.1 IP
“In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings… Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?”
Soriano made his 15 innings, but not by a hell of a lot. Once again, The Brittle One was beset by injuries that limited his innings on the bump. Unlike the recent past though, his performance suffered even when he was on the hill (his K/9 rate fell from a 9.49 career mark, and he walked 4.12 batters per nine versus a 2.82 career mark per nine). The Yankees overpaid for an injured hurler who failed to live up to expectations when on the field.
DOUBLE
By Ray Flowers
Potential Trade Targets
HITTERS: (1) Hunter Pence (2) Ryan Ludwick (3) David DeJesus (4) Coco Crisp (5) Melky Cabrera / Jeff Francoeur (6) Carlos Beltran
PITCHERS: (1) Kevin Slowey (2) Mike Adams / Heath Bell. (3) Jason Isgrinhausen
By Ray Flowers
Photo from Library of Congress
Help me out here. If I were to stop you on the street and ask you which pitcher you would want on your fantasy squad in 2011, which would you chose (based on their career numbers)?
Pitcher A: 32-36, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.25 K/9, 2.21 K/BB
Pitcher B: 39-21, 4.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.86 K/9, 4.57 K/BB
Duh, you’d choose Pitcher B.
Which of the following two hurlers would you select based on their 2010 numbers?
Pitcher A: 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 3.80 K/BB, 1.70 K/BB
Pitcher B: 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.71 K/9, 4.00 K/BB
Duh, you’d choose Pitcher B again.
So tell me, why would the Twins choose Pitcher A (Nick Blackburn) over Pitcher B (Kevin Slowey) as their 5th starter this season? Flat out – it beats me. Of course, I also couldn’t solve the Riddle of the Sphinx either, so maybe I’m not the right one to ask (and yes, I know that the riddle likely doesn’t have anything to do with the Sphinx on the Giza Plateau, but I liked the picture).
Let me be as clear as I can – Blackburn is, at his best, a league average hurler. In fact, that is being kind. Here are his career numbers versus the league average during his career.
Blackburn: 32-36, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.25 K/9, 2.21 K/BB
AL Avg: 33-32, 4.34 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.78 K/9, 2.04 K/BB
See what I’m saying?
Clearly Slowey is a better performer in ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, winning percentage – I could go on but why belabor the point. Let’s just say that the Twins are making an odd choice.
As for Slowey, how does he compare when we venture from placing him side-by-side with a slacker like Blackburn? Very well actually.
Slowey’s career K/9 mark is a tenth better than the AL average the past four years while his walk rate is well better than anything most pitchers could ever accomplish as his ability to throw strikes is virtually unparalleled. Slowey has walked an average of 1.50 batters per nine innings in his career for a total of 79 walks in his career. To compare, C.J. Wilson walked 93 batters last season. Moreover, amongst pitchers who have thrown 470 or more innings since 2007, Slowey is the second best pitcher in baseball at limiting walks behind only the great Roy Halladay (1.42). That impressive ability to throw strikes for Slowey has enabled him to post the third best K/BB ratio since 2007 at 4.57, just slightly behind Halladay (5.08) and Cliff Lee (4.60). That’s it, in all of baseball. So again, why in the hell is Slowey being sent to the bullpen in favor of Blackburn?
Now I’m not going to write this article totally pro-Slowey, I have to be honest about his faults too. There are three major issues with him.
(1) He has been unable to take the ball every five days (at least Blackburn can do that). Slowey has thrown 160.1, 90.2 and 155.2 innings the past three seasons. I’d like to think its just been bad luck, and maybe it has been, but he is no Matt Cain. At the same time he isn’t quite Erik Bedard either.
(2) He allows far too many fly balls. In his career his fly ball rate sites at 48.1 percent, and last season that number was even higher at 50.6 percent leading to an absolutely horrible 0.56 GB/FB rate.
(3) As a result of the fly balls, you guessed it, he has allowed far too many homers in his career. The big league average is about 1.0 per nine innings. Slowey has never posted a total below his 1.21 mark of last season and owns a career rate of 1.41 per nine. That’s awful.
On the plus side, Slowey has allowed a rather normal 10.0 percent homer to fly ball ratio in his career. The problem has been all those fly balls. So, theoretically, if he could just cut down on the fly balls a bit, his HR/9 mark could fall back to an “average” level. One way this might happen could be from a helping hand from his ball park. Target Field in Minnesota was the hardest park to go deep in during the 2010 season in the American League according to Park Indices. It would seem that Slowey is now in a great park given his skill set, and what do you know, his numbers at home were strong last season (8-4, 3.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 1.17 HR/9), so of course the Twins… oh never mind.
At this point it looks like Slowey will need an injury, or trade out of Minnesota, to become a mixed league option in 2011. As such, he is nothing more than a late round gamble since he could conceivably end up making 50 appearances out of the bullpen this year. The good news is that there must be a few intelligent GM’s out there who are aware of the data I’ve relayed here, so even if one of them isn’t in Minnesota, hopefully one of his compadres will make a deal for Slowey to let him do his thing every five days out of the starting rotation.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Pat Burrell on fire for Giants.
(2) Jose Bautista is on FIRE.
(3) Starlin Castro pushes average up to 320.
(4) Casey McGehee on fire in August.
(5) Injured pitchers – Andy Pettitte, Kevin Slowey.
(6) Shane Victorino back – implications to Phillies?
(7) Chipper Jones career could be over.
By Ray Flowers
It’s Friday, so forgive me. I’m all over the map as we wrap down the week. I’ve got a cold and I’m tired, but I also have plenty of fun scheduled for the weekend starting tonight with Game 7 of the NHL Finals (you can read more about that below). So proceed with caution moving forward – hopefully you won’t nauseous as I’ll be jumping around from sport to sport in today’s entry.
Emilio Bonifacio will hit ninth in the batting order in interleague play with the Marlins using a designated hitter for their pitcher. Since his red hot start that included 16 hits in his first 33 ABs (.485) Emilio hasn’t hit like he belongs in the big leagues with a 50-for-219 stretch that has produced a .228 batting average. Emilio may stay in the ninth hole once the club returns to the NL brand of ball, that is if the Marlins decide to use their pitcher in the eighth hole like Tony La Russa. Chris Coghlan figures to continue to hold down the leadoff role for the club with his .350 OBP this season, a number that is .365 in his 12 games in his current role at the top of the order.
Ryan Madson since Brad Lidge was placed on the DL: two appearances, no runs, two saves. Like a cool drink on a hot day.
It came out a few days ago, but did you see the report in the USA Today that said it’s not wind conditions that is leading to all the home runs at Yankee stadium, the real reason is that the dimensions of the part are so small? “The wall structure is slightly different than the old park,” AccuWeather said. “The main difference involves curvature. The gentle curve from right field to center field seen in original Yankee Stadium has largely been eliminated at the new stadium… Not only is the famed short porch even shorter in the new stadium, but the walls themselves are not as tall.” AccuWeather reported that 20 of the first 105 home runs hit at the new ball yard would not have gone out of old Yankee Stadium. This is significant in that the new yard is on pace to surrender 293 home runs this season, a total that is just 10 homers off the major league record which is held by Coors Field in Colorado in 1999.
I’m pretty sure that when Joe Mauer was out of the spotlight his body became inhabited by the spirit of Ted Williams. Mauer hit his 13th home run of the season Friday, and with three more RBI he now has 39 ribbies in 39 games. Despite missing the entire month of April, Mauer is not only the top catcher in baseball in standard 12 team mixed leagues according to the Player Rater, he is also one of the to-10 offensive weapons in the game at the time of this writing. That’s utterly amazing.
I touched on the moron that is Chad Ochocinco the other day in Woe is Me, but this guy just cannot stay out of harms way – he simply cannot help himself. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer Johnson has gotten three tattoos on his face (look for a link to a picture on the right side). Yes, I said face. He has two crosses on his right cheekbone, on the left side of his face he has a map of Florida, and on the bridge of his nose he has the letters “OC” for his name. Good to know that if he ever passes out drunk people will know that he is a Christian who lives in Florida and likes to drink Orange Juice.
Kevin Slowey had a huge game on Friday as he struck out 10 Cubs on his way to his ninth victory of the year against only two loses. That gives him a run of six quality starts in seven outings, and in that time he has lowered his ERA from 5.50 to 4.23.
Game 7 of the NHL Finals is about an hour away. Are you as excited about the tilt as I am? Probably not, but if you want a little extra NHL knowledge in regards to the series and Game 7 in particular click on the link to may latest NHL article titled Western Conference Review. There is nothing like the majesty and tension of an NHL Game 7, and with this one being in the Finals, do yourself a favor and watch the game on NBC or CBC even if you aren’t a hockey fan. Trust me, you won’t be disappointed, and perhaps you can approximate the thrill that the players will be experiencing tonight if you merely think back to your childhood when you used to screw around with your friends setting up that Game 7 scenario so that you could win the Cup for your club. Someone will get to turn that dream into reality tonight.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
