2013 Livin’ The Fantasy Draft

And the fantasy baseball drafts just keep on coming… Kay Adams and I hosted the Livin’ the Fantasy Draft for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM87). The league consisted of myself, Kay, Kyle Elfrink, two producers (Drew Phelps and Phil Backert), and six listeners (one was unable to make it). That means we had a shallow 11 team, mixed league draft that we took part in. I had the #2 selection in the draft, and here is how my team turned out.

C: Carlos Santana (7th round), Victor Martinez (8)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (19), Kendrys Morales (24)
2B: Rickie Weeks (9), Martin Prado (6)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (4), Manny Machado (21)
SS: Jose Reyes (2)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Dexter Fowler (13), Cameron Maybin (23), Drew Stubbs (25), Michael Brantley (28)

STARTING PITCHERS: Yovani Gallardo (10), Mat Latos (11), Brandon Morrow (12), C.J. Wilson (15), Dan Haren (16), Tim Hudson (22), Edinson Volquez (26)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Joe Nathan (14), Joel Hanrahan (17), Kenley Jansen (18), Steve Cishek (20), Vinnie Pestano (27)

It’s a two catcher league, and with the two talents I saw sitting there in the 7th and 8th rounds I thought to myself what the heck, do something you normally don’t due and roster two potentially elite options at catcher.

First base is an area of weakness relative to the rest of my team. Still, I’m confident that my duo of Youkilis and Morales will be able to hold their own at the spot, even if I’m just treading water there.

Weeks fell in my eyes, so I was more than willing to dive into the pool in the 9th round. Injuries are always an issue, but per 162 games for his career here is Weeks line – .251-23-67-107-20. Yeah, I know right? Prado qualifies at OF, 3B, 2B and SS in this league. I know he shouldn’t, but you have to play to your leagues rules. He offers excellent cover up the middle, at the corner, and in the outfield. I love him as my middle infielder right now. Speaking of up the middle, Reyes is a strong contender to lead shortstops in fantasy value in 2013.

Zimmerman’s shoulder keeps passing all the tests this spring, and he seems well on his way to another traditionally impressive effort at the hot corner. Machado in the 21st was a shocking fall actually. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on The Drive (5 PM EDT, Monday-Friday) pointed out something very interesting. Rookies like Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar are on everyone’s must draft list. A youngster like Machado, who is just as talented, simply isn’t because he played last year and only did so-so. The perception is that Myers/Profar are worth the risk this season but Machado is only blah. Folks, Machado is a dynamic talent who has a starting job with the Orioles. That should mean more than it does to some.

Braun is still my #1 guy, PED junk be damned. Upton is a great #2 outfielder. Choo is a great #3 outfielder. Fowler is a great #4 outfielder. Maybin/Stubbs/Brantley equals a great #5 outfielder.

On the hill I waited on starters, shocking I know, and yet again proved you can do well following that strategy. Gallardo and Latos are top-20 arms in my eyes, and Morrow is right on the edge of that as well. My 4th starter is Wilson, and I have a lot of faith in him rebounding this season (see his Player Profile). My fifth is Haren, and I have a lot of faith that he will rebound this season (see his Player Profile). My sixth starter is Tim Hudson, you know the guy who has averaged 16 victories with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP the past three seasons. My seventh starting arm is Volquez who has a 200 K season in his back pocket, has filthy stuff, and pitches half his games in Petco Park.

In the pen, some strong arms as well. Nathan and Hanrahan are top-10 closer types, and Cishek is a strong 3rd closer. I also added Jansen, that guys arm is as good as any in baseball, and Pestano who is one hell of a hurler himself (he’s also potentially going to get some 9th inning work if Chris Perez isn’t 100 percent by opening day).

It’s an 11 team league, having one less team in the mix certainly opens up the player pool for sure, and who knows about injuries, but looking at this squad I really don’t think I have an obvious weakness.

Oh, and here are the results of an NL-only draft that we held on The Drive which you can hear Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT on Sirius 210. XM87.

By Ray Flowers

2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

AL LABR 2013

Phoenix Arizona.

Not many fantasy baseball leagues mean more than LABR in the world of fantasy sports. Started by John Hunt 20 years ago, it was the first exposure many of us had to fantasy baseball, at least the first chance to really dig into the mind of the experts in the field to find out why they did what they did on draft day (for more on the history of the event see Steve Gardner’s wonderful piece). I’m honored that I’ve been asked to be a part of the event.

Last year, despite drafting a team that was literally called the worst of all-time by everyone, I ended up being tied for first place in the last week of the season before eventually finishing in 2nd place to Steve Moyer. That was in the NL though. This year I was moved over the the AL. How did my team turn out? I think it looks better on paper than the club I rostered last year. Time will tell.

12 team AL-only
$260
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (the reserves are chosen via a snake draft)

C: Derek Norris ($2), Hector Gimenez (2)
1B: Eric Hosmer (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (29)
3B: Kevin Youkilis (11)
SS: Ben Zobrist (25)
MI: Howie Kendrick (18)
CI: Josh Donaldson (6)
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (24), Nick Swisher (18), Chris Young (11), Drew Stubbs (13), Nate McLouth (4)
UT: Kelly Johnson (10)

PITCHERS: Sergio Santos (8), Grant Balfour (12), James Shields (20), C.J. Wilson (10), Chris Archer (4), Jeff Niemann (4), Joe Blanton (3), Joel Peralta (3), Ubaldo Jimenez (1)

BENCH: Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Michael Pineda, Jimmy Paredes, Marwin Gonzalez, Quintin Berry

My catchers are weak – the down unit of what just might be an impressive offense. I refused to pay $10 for Jason Castro or $13 for Alex Avila (14 catchers went for double-digits. Crazy).

Hosmer went for only $1 less than Mark Teixeira, but I felt like the youngster, who I’ve touted many times before, has a chance to rebound to his 2011 levels, and then some if it all clicks. At third I rostered Kevin Youkilis, another one of “my guys” this year. You may not love him but at $11 I think it’s hard to find fault with his addition (Mitch Moreland went for $10). At corner, I’ve got Donaldson. He’s got legit power. I’ve been telling folks to think Casey Blake like levels of production if he gets 500 at-bats.

I went second base crazy. It was not a plan. I targeted Pedroia as the big dollar guy I wanted. I wanted also to grab Howie Kendrick as a strong MI option. Mission accomplished. The Johnson pick was the one I look at on offense and say – maybe/maybe not. If he goes 16/13 as he has each of the last three years, only he and Brandon Phillips can say they have done that at second base, I’ll be fine with the $10 bid. Oh, an I also grabbed my main man, Zobrist, who qualifies at second, shortstop and outfield.

Ellsbury could be the steal of the draft — IF he plays 140 games. I backed off Yoenis Cespedes at $29. Desmond Jennings at $26 was too steep too. I went to $26 on Austin Jackson before he eventually went for $27. Licking my wounds, I got Ellsbury with the next selection directly after AJax… for $24, only one dollar more than Nick Markakis and eight less than Jose Bautista. Young and Stubbs are risks, but it’s an AL-only league. Those two guys could hit 40 homers and steals 50 bags. Hey, it’s possible. Swisher is boring, but boring and stable is fine in this format. McLouth had a nice finishing kick last year, Nolan Reimold is always hurt, and Wilson Betemit is currently the Orioles DH. Sounds like McLouth could get plenty of playing time.

On the hill…

I got Shields to be my horse. I was waiting, and waiting and waiting on Scherzer. When he was finally brought up, I had to pass. I pushed the bidding up to $24, but bowed out when he went for $25 (he was the last big arm left which inflated his cost significantly). I then settled on Brandon Morrow as my fall back #2 starter – until his price soared to $19. Luckily I was able to get Wilson shortly thereafter, for only $10 mind you, and with his elbow apparently sound that was a great pick given the cost of the two righties that went right before him. I rounded out the rotation with Niemann and Blanton, two stable and cheap commodities, and took a shot on the young but oh so talented Archer for just $4. Finally, my last starter was Jimenez, an as my lone $1 player, why not?

In the pen, things were pricey. I struck early with Santos and Balfour – a power duo with some minor health concern woes, that cost me $20. For reference, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan went for $18 a piece. I also added the elite arm of Peralta. In the reserve rounds I added two potential closers in Wilson and Valverde. If one of those guys becomes a closer and gives me, say, 15 saves this year, I’m in great shape and I won’t have to blow a third of my FAAB budget chasing saves.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I like the club. I’ve got Youkilis, Zobrist, Swisher for some positional flexibility. I’ve got speed across the board (Stubbs might be my only 30 SB option, but look at all the guys with 15 SB potential). I’ve also got a solid group of potential 15-25 homer guys. The batting average won’t be great, but the counting numbers should be solid.

The pitchers I like as well. Power arms in the pen (Peralta is a power arm out of the pen to augment my two closing options (don’t forget I also took shots on free agents Valverde/Wilson in the reserve rounds). Shields/Wilson are a solid 1-2 punch. Niemann/Blanton are boring but they can be key pieces in league specific setups. Archer is a young kid with a luminous future. He could open the year in the Rays’ rotation, but even if he doesn’t he will be up at some point. Jimenez improves just a little bit, or Pineda is back to full strength in the second half…

So, this team looks better than my entry last season. Does that mean it will do better or worse when the final numbers are tallied?

Click here for a review of the entire AL LABR DRAFT.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part II, Rounds 15-28

The peeps over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (to see how others in the league constructed their clubs, click on the link above). In Part II of this three part series I will review selections made in rounds 15-28.

For a review of selections in rounds 1-14.

Round 15: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Players: Dan Haren, SP
I believe Haren will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

Round 16: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Steve Cishek, RP
Wanted Corey Hart who was taken a pick ahead. Therefore decided to make the plunge with my first closer. Stronger skills than Jim Johnson who had 51 saves last year.

Round 17: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kenley Jansen
It looks like Brandon League will be the closer to start the year, but I expect Jansen to lead the Dodgers in saves just like he did last season after starting out as a setup man. Just a massive arm.

Round 18: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B
He qualifies at both corner infield spots, will get to hit in a solid batters yard in New York, is motivated, and has reworked his swing a bit. All of those things are pluses.

Round 19: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dustin Ackley, 2B
I don’t know how he scored more than 80 runs with an OBP under .300 last year. Some slight improvement across the board could lead to 10th round production.

Round 20: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Bobby Parnell
There’s no doubting Frank Francisco has a huge arm, but elbow woes could lead to the fire balling/ground ball inducing Parnell becoming the Mets’ closer.

Round 21: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The guy I wanted (Russell Martin) was taken one pick before me (what a shock). Salty could go for 25 HRs, so he’s not an awful consolation prize.

Round 22: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shaun Marcum, SP
Injuries have sapped his value in some folks eyes, but since 2008 an average Marcum season: 11-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.91 K/BB in 168 innings.

Round 23: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Reynolds, 1B
Few seem to remember, but from 2008 an average Reynolds effort has led to 33 homers, 88 RBIs, 83 runs, 10 steals. So what if he’s hit .229 in that time? I can handle the average with my roster.

Round 24: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James McDonald, SP
A tale of two halves. In the first he was impressive (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP ). In the second he sucked eggs (3-5, 7.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP). Still has that power arm. See his Player Profile.

Round 25: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Michael Brantley, OF
Not that far away from being someone of note. He was one of nine outfielders to go .288-6-60-63-12 last season. See his Player Profile.

Round 26: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Domonic Brown, OF
I really didn’t need another outfielder after taking Brantle, but with Delmon Young nursing an ankle injury maybe, just maybe, Brown will finally flash that 20/20 talent. We can trade in this league too, and Mr. Minnix has already expressed an interest in Mr. Brown.

Round 27: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: David Robertson
Had a great season last year and people forget if he hadn’t gotten hurt it likely would have been him, and not Rafael Soriano, who led the Yankees in saves.

Round 28: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Francisco Liriano, SP
Why make the injured lefty my last selection? We’ve got two DL spots in this league. I’ll put Liriano on the DL and then grab another SP as soon as I can. See his Player Profile.

And with that all there is to do is to review the final squad which is what I will do in Part III of the series.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kevin Youkilis

Kevin Youkilis played for both the Red Sox and the White Sox in 2012, and neither team, the player, or the fantasy owner were happy with how the oft injured 33 year old performed (Youkilis will be 34 in March). Was all the hoopla with Booby, I mean Bobby, Valentine in Boston a mere blip on the road for Youkilis (he did perform better in Chicago)? Can Youkilis resurrect his once bright career, with the Evil Empire no less (he signed a 1-year, $12 million deal to go from the Sox to the Yankees in the most stick it to your face for treating me badly Beantown move he could make), or have injuries and the advance of Father Time relegated Youkilis to the realm of mid round draft picks that you are just hoping will pay off in the fantasy game?

The most obvious issue with Youkilis is his inability to stay on the field. After appearing in 145 games each year from 2006-08, Youkilis dipped to 136 games played in 2009. He then fell to 102 games played in 2010, 120 in 2011 and 122 last season. That means his average the past three years is 115 games a season. You can’t count on a player who is going to miss that much time because even if his rate of production is solid – more on that in a moment – a month an a half of missed games each season is unexceptable even if that player qualifies at multiple spots (Youkilis will be first base and third base eligible next season after appearing in more than 20 gamas at each spot).

A .283 career hitter, Youkilis hit .235 last season which is a dreadful mark by any measure (.233 with the Red S. and .236 with the White S.). A one year fall off? Perhaps. However, considering that he also hit a mere .258 in 2011 we need to investigate further. The first thing I notice is that the Greek God of Walks posted a 10.0 percent BB-rate, the lowest of his career in 2012 (the previous three years that mark was in the 13′s). Youkilis also struck out at the second highest rate of his career, his K-rate was 21.2, and the resulting 0.47 K/BB ratio was a career worst (career 0.67). He will need to rectify that situation immediately if that average is going to get back into the “normal” range for him. Second, his .268 BABIP was also a career worst, and the second straight year under .300 since he posted a mark of .296 in 2011. When you own a career mark of .322 this is a red flag. Oddly, his line drive rate has held steady the past two years at 20 and 20.7 percent (career 21.2) giving him an inkling of hope that perhaps he will be able to return to the world of the living in the batting average category.

As for his power, we’re talking 3-straight year with less than 20 homers. Of course, as I noted above, he’s just not playing enough games to really rack up totals in the counting categories. Given his rate last season – 19 homers in 122 games – if he had appeared in 140 games he would have gone deep 22 times. An issue with the long ball power though is a declining fly ball rate. From 2006-2010 Kevin was uber-consistent with a fly ball rate between 44.3 and 46.7 percent. The last two years that number has dipped to 38 and 36 percent. A one year fall of can be written off to some extent, but when you do it two years in a row, there is concern. At least he is still converting fly balls into homers at a solid rate as evidenced by his last five years of HR/F ratios: 14.9, 16.5, 13.6, 13.3 and 15.7 percent.

On the plus side we also have his rate of production with the White Sox. In 80 games with the Pale Hoes Youkilis went deep 15 times, knocked in 46 runs and scored 47 times. Given a baseline of 140 games that would lead to 26 homers, 81 RBIs and 82 runs scored, levels of production that aren’t at all different than what he was producing in his “salad days.”

I’m a big fan of Youkilis’ game, even if I detest his hideous setup position in the batters box (why in the world didn’t some batting coach at some point simply forbid him from his ludicrous hand position?). However, I’m not blind to what the numbers and what my eyes are telling me. Youkilis has drastically underperformed for two years now, and he’s basically been injured three years running. Is it fair to think that a 34 year old with a wounded ego will be able to turn back the clock? Maybe, but the arrow certainly isn’t tilting to ‘it’s a lock.’ Youkilis will need to regain his approach at the dish in order for the success to return, an I see no reason while he couldn’t do that with health. However, his production must be called into question given declining BABIPs mark and fly ball rates the past two years. Youkilis should be one of those middle round draft selections that you make with little expectation. Take him early enough that you don’t miss out on the dual position threat, but also make sure you roster him at a point where if he repeats his efforts from last season that he doesn’t kill your team. Youkilis is a corner infield option in mixed leagues on the hope that he hasn’t lost his game, that a move to New York and it’s strong hitter’s park will help, and that he is just mad enough to do his best to stick it to the Red Sox while in pinstripes.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Third Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2012 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 Jose Bautista
3 Ryan Zimmerman
4 Kevin Youkilis
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 David Wright
7 Adrian Beltre
8 Pablo Sandoval
9 Alex Rodriguez
10 Michael Young

Longoria performed as expected when on the field hitting .289 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs in just 74 games. Of course, it was just 74 games as a leg issue limited him for a huge portion of the year. One of those first round selections that didn’t live up to his draft day cost.

Bautista, just like Longoria, was exactly what was expected when on the field as he blasted 27 homers with 65 RBIs and 64 runs scored in a mere 92 games. Of course, his average fell back to the doldrums (.241) as I always thought it would. For 2013 he will only qualify in the outfield.

Zimmerman hit. 224 in April and had just two homers on June 1st. Awful right? Despite that start, in the end it was a “normal” Ryan Zimmerman season, i.e., a damn good one. When it was all said and done he hit .282 with 25 homers, 95 RBIs and 93 runs scored. Damn impressive considering the start he had.

Youkilis played for both Sox this year, and he actually wasn’t all that bad in Chicago as he hit 15 long balls with 46 RBIs and 47 runs scored in just 80 games played. That’s 30-90-90 in a full season folks. Too bad he hit .233 with the Red Sox and .236 with the Whites.

Ramirez is always taken later on draft day than he should be. He went out in his first year in Milwaukee and hit .300 with 27 homers, 105 RBIs and 92 runs scored (not to mention a career best 50 doubles). Hell, he even stole nine bases. Once again he was a rock of offensive production from the hot corner.

Wright hit only .258 with a .750 OPS in the second half. That’s terrible. Still, how can you turn away from a guy who hit .306 with 21 homers, 93 RBIs, 91 runs and 15 steals? Rumors of him being washed up simply weren’t remotely accurate.

Beltre had the second best season of his career hitting .321 with 36 bombds, 102 ribbies and 95 runs scored. His owners won’t forget his mad dash to the finish either as he hit .345 with 11 homers over his last 29 games.

Sandoval struggled with yet another hammate bone issue that required surgery, and he continued to gain weight at an alarming rate. He hit .283 with 63 RBIs in just 396 at-bats, but there are a ton of reasons why Sandoval shouldn’t be drafted too highly next season. Get it, a “ton” of reasons?

Rodriguez had hit 30 homers with 100 RBIs each year from from 1998-2010, a major league record 13-straight seasons. Last year he slumped to 16-62 in 99 games, and this year he fell even further with 18 homers and 57 RBIs in 122 contests. At least he stole 13 bases to give him a tiny bit of value. OK, I’m stretching.

Young had a solid end to the year hitting .313 over his final 31 games, but that still left his season long average at .277, his first sdeason under .280 since 2002. He also failed to reach double-digit homers for the first time in five years, and his 67 runs batted in were also his lowest mark since 2002. For a player who is 36 years old it’s fair to wonder just how much Young will be able to “bounce back” in 2013.

Hit: Aramis Ramirez (#5), Brett Lawrie (#12)
I list Lawrie because I believe I had him lower than any other source I saw this season (I know of a couple of websites that listed him as a top-30 overall player this season). Lawrie had a solid effort hitting .273 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs, 73 RBIs and 13 steals, but based upon most people’s expectations that effort was viewed as a monumental failire. It should not have been.

Miss: Kevin Youkilis
Michael Young wasn’t too far behind either.

By Ray Flowers

Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

The review of my season in the abyss continues as I’ll take a look today at the Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio Hosts’ League club that I put together.

Kurt Suzuki and John Buck were total failures. In the piece I just linked to above I mentioned how close I was to getting Carlos Ruiz. Oh well.

Kevin Youkilis (.235-19-60-72) had a lost season wearing White and Red Sox.

Dustin Pedroia had a solid season with 15 homers, 20 steals and 81 runs scored, but injuries limited him to his worst season of 140 games played.

Derek Jeter was on a whole lot of my teams this year. Turns out he was a hell of a lot better than anyone, well almost anyone, thought he would be (.316-15-59-99-9).

Billy Butler was a superstar posting the best numbers of his career (.313-29-107-72). I don’t think he can get much better – at least in the homer column.

My outfield was a mixed bag. CarGo (.303-22-85-89-20) was once again star. Carl Crawford was once again a massive disappointment in his worst season (31 flipping games). Shane Victorino stole a career best 39 bags, but he also hit a career worst .255, produced 55 RBIs (his lowest total in five years), and scored just 72 times, his fewest times crossing the plate since 2006. Brett Gardner was a total flop appearing in just 16 games because of about 16 setbacks with his elbow. After averaging 48 steals the past two years and getting just two this year, it’s not surprising to see my team come in with seven out of a possible 12 points in the steals category.

Mark Reynolds, a top-5 third baseman in homers, RBIs and runs from 2009-11, had his worst season ever with only a massive finishing kick giving him non-puking numbers (.221-23-69-65). I still spit up a little in my mouth.

James Shields joined Justin Verlander as the only two pitchers in baseball with at least 15 victories and 220 Ks each of the past two years.

Ricky Romero was the worst pitcher ever. Well, not quite, but you know what I mean. If you don’t, here is some context. Not only did he have a 1.67 WHIP over 181 innings, he posted the 10th worst ERA of the 21st century for a hurler who tossed 180 innings (his mark was 5.77, the worst the 6.65 mark of Jose Lima in 2000).

Brandon Morrow was the ace I predicted he would be with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Too bad he made only 21 starts because of injury.

Max Scherzer alternated brilliance and putrid outings frustrating his owners. In the end though no one was complaining about 16 victories, 231 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Chad Billingsley, Erik Bedard, Ricky Nolasco rounded out the rotation. Billingsley was having a nice bounce back season before an elbow injury shut him down at 149.2 innings after 4-straight years over 185 innings. Bedard was just awful after a solid start (7-14, 5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). Amazingly he was healthy but horrible. Nolasco teased again, and in the end the numbers were terrible (12-13, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).

Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Brett Myers, Matt Capps and Aroldis Chapman were my bullpen, and yes I led the league in saves with 142, a pretty kick ass number for a 12 team league. Don’t overlook the fact that Santos had only two saves on the year either. If he too was healthy I could have parlayed one of these arms into more help for my starting staff.

CONGRATS: Drew Dinkmyer of Fantistics.

FINAL RESULT: 8/12. Not good. However, one more run, two more wins and 14 more Ks would have landed me in a tie for 6th place. Amazing how close it always is after such a long season.

By Ray Flowers

Review: K-BAD

The folks over at KFFL.com have been gracious enough to invite me to participate in KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft (K-BAD) the last couple of years. When you see how my team performed no wonder they invited me. I’m apparently an easy mark.

Ryan Doumit was great (.275-18-75). Not so much Kurt Suzuki who burned me in pretty much every league (literally every one huh?). As they say, love hurts.

Miguel Cabrera was my rock. Triple Crown winner (.330-44-139).

Howie Kendrick didn’t match his 2011 effort but he was solid (.287-8-67-57-14).

Kevin Youkilis didn’t come close to living up to my expectations with his worst season (.235/.336/.409).

Derek Jeter was one run and one steal from a .315-15-55-100-10 season.

Mark Reynolds and Dustin Ackley didn’t exactly anchor my CI/MI spots.

Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Dexter Fowler and Shane Victorino were a strong base in the outfield, but Brennan Boesch (.240-12-54-52 in 470 at-bats) and Vernon Wells (.230-11-29-36 in 243 at-bats) were dreadful as my 5th outfield option. I should have listened to my own review of Boesch.

Daniel Murphy was solid and qualified at multiple positions. Rafael Furcal was spectacular for two months (.333 with 37 runs and eight steals in April-May) and good in the first half (.275 with 54 runs scored) before his work at the dish caved (.239 with a .600 OPS over his last 38 games). Oh, and finally my boy, Chris Davis, killed it. Davis socked 33 long balls and drive in 85 while scoring 75 times. I knew the power would eventually come out.

King Felix dominated.
Ricky Romero was atrocious.
Josh Beckett was as blah as blah gets.
Brandon Morrow was great but missed two months with injury.
Wandy Rodriguez was league average across the board.
Ricky Nolasco was worse than Wandy.
Scott Baker blew his arm out.

Sergio Santos blew his arm out.
Frank Francisco was awful (5.53 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 23 SVs).
David Robertson was the closer for about 10 days before he was injured (I spent 35% of my FAAB budget to add him for that 10 day run. What luck, right?).
Sergio Romo was nails as always (1.79 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 14 SVs).

CONGRATS:  Joe Hamrahi of Baseball Prospectus.

FINAL RESULT: 11/12. This is the most embarrassed I think I have ever been at a club. My pitching was abysmal. Because I realized with a third of the year left that I have no shot at doing anything in the saves or ratio categories I tanked the ratios and gave up on relievers in an attempt to try and rack up strikeouts and wins. Even that didn’t help. On offense, I was 13 RBIs from three more points, seven homers from two more points and two steals from another point. It’s always close as I’ve been saying.

By Ray Flowers