Daily Joust – Wk 20: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Coco Crisp (+28, $110,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
The numbers aren’t very good. Oh the 26 steals are nice, but the .252 average and 42 runs runs scored are pretty boring. Still, someone has been swinging a good stick of late. Not only did Coco have a homer and five RBIs Sunday, he’s got 11 RBIs and 11 runs scored in August. Going a bit further back he has hit .282 with 17 RBIs and 19 runs scored over his last 27 games. Oh, and I’ve left out the best part. He’s running. A lot. After swiping 16 bags in the first half of the season he’s stolen 10 bases in his last 27 trips to the field including six in his last 15 games. He won’t get to the 49 steals he had last season but he’s just four steals from a 3rd straight season with 30 base thefts.

Gavin Floyd (+34, $240K)
Boring but stable. That could be the name on the back of Floyd’s jersey. One victory from his 10th, that would give him double-digit victories in 5-straight seasons, his ERA would be a five year high at 4.43, as would his WHIP at 1.38, but he’s pitched better than that of late, much better. Over his last nine outings he’s gone 5-2 with a 2.83 ERA. Now he’s still sporting a 1.43 WHIP, and his K/BB ratio has been 1.60 over those 57.1 innings, so it’s not like everything’s fantastic in his world.

Aaron Hill (+28, $116K)
Hill is on the cusp of some pretty impressive numbers. Hitting .298 with 17 homers and nine steals, that’s pretty darn close to a .300, 20/10 season, and that’s darn impressive don’t cha think? Over his last three games Hill has seven hits, including three homers, that have led to five RBIs and six runs scored. Hill has been pretty darn consistent as well. In 82 games during the first half of the season he hit .300 with a .355 OBP and .505 SLG. In 34 games in the second half of the season he’s hit .293 with a .349 OBP an a .496 SLG. That will play.

Chris Young (+24, $103K)
Young started out as just about the hottest hitter in the league (he hit .410 with five homers over his first 11 games). He then hit .158 in May, was hurt, hit .143 in June and he basically disappeared from fantasy relevant. This started to turn around a bit in July, he went deep four times with four steals, and he’s finally looking more Young-like. Over his last 28 games Young is hitting .270 with a .363 OBP and .539 SLG. That’s a .902 OPS over 28 games. Pretty good don’t ya think? He’s also hit five homers, scored 15 runs, knocked 16 in and has stolen four bases. Finally (he still only owned in 58 percent of leagues at Fleaflicker).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

R.A. Dickey (-39, $402K)
The best value in the game on the hill this season, Dickey has had an amazing season with 15 victories, a 2.89 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 175 Ks, in 168.1 innings mind you (a phenomenal number for a knuckleballer really). Things have taken a downturn of late though. Over his last eight outings he’s gone 3-3 with an ERA of 4.10 an a WHIP of 1.30. Given his career numbers of 4.09 and 1.34, those second half numbers certainly aren’t at all shocking. At least he’s still striking batters out with more than one an inning. Tremendous season no matter what happens from here out, but the best is likely behind him.

Eric Hosmer (-17, $60K)
There are three first basemen who have gone 10/10 this year – Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion and Hosmer. It’s a small victory for Hosmer who continues to struggle. His batting average is up .010 points from the first half. It’s still just .241. His OBP is up .024 points in the second second half. It still just .323. His OPS though is down two points in the second half at .668 as he’s hit only two homers with four doubles and a triple in 36 games. It’s going to end up being a completely lost season. Let’s just hope he catches fire to give him some confidence to build on for 2013.

Carlos Lee (-16, $88K)
With 57 RBIs, Lee is going to have to kick things up a bit to reach 80 RBIs for the 14th season (he has driven in 28 in his last 37 games). He’s hit that number each of the 13 seasons of his career. Lee is also hitting .286 which just so happens to be an exact match for his career mark. Hitting .297 the past 37 games, Lee has also walked more than he has struck out (19 to 15). The real issue with Lee is his total lack of pop. Lee has hit three homers since the start of June, that’s three long balls in 59 games. For a guy who has hit at least 18 homers each of the past 12 years, that’s pretty embarrassing.

Kevin Youkilis (-21, $59K)
In 42 games with the Red Sox he hit .233 with four homers and 14 RBIs. In 44 games with the White Sox he has only hit .241, but his OPS is more than .120 points up (.814), and he’s driven in 29 runners in 44 games. Youkilis is only hitting .195 over his last 31 games though and he’s also dealing with a sore knee and an arm injury. He continues to battle through, but injuries have been a huge detriment this year.

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By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Today I’ll not only do my normal Friday thing, giving you some advice on guys I’d be starting Friday and Saturday, but I’m also going to point you to a game in which you can turn $10 into $5000. How does that sound?

CONTEST  – KING FOR A DAY; Win $12,000

Here’s the deal. Every Friday starting today, through September 7th, 12 qualifiers will be given a shot to win $12,000 in the final contest on September 14th. Here’s how it works from the official webpage of the tournament.

Each weekly qualifier is a $10 entry multiple-entry tournament with the winner earning a seat in the Sept 14th $12,000 King’s Crown tournament. In the event of a tie for first place, normal Daily Joust tie-breaker rules apply. If a tie still persists, a playoff will occur to determine the winner.

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HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano vs. Josh Beckett: Cano hits everyone, and Beckett is no different as Cano has hit .324 with three homers and 13 RBI over 71 at-bats.

Matt Holliday vs. Ricky Nolasco: This matchup is golden for Holliday who is hitting .476 with two homers and six RBIs in 21 at-bats. Carlos Beltran also kills it with 13 hits in 38 at-bats (.342 average) against Nolasco.

Carlos Lee vs. Jake Westbrook: A new team for energy, and a great matchup for production. Lee is hitting .450 in 40 at-bats against the righty from STL.

Luke Scott vs. Justin Masterson: In a horrific slump that has him hitting .194 on the year, Scott is 7-for-16 (.438) with five RBIs off Masterson. Will this be the tonic he needs to turn things around?

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Hiroki Kuroda vs. Red Sox: In his lone outing against the Sox he allowed two runs in seven innings while racking up nine Ks. Over his last eight starts this season he’s dropped his ERA from 4.50 to 3.17, and over his last 34 innings he has an impressive 39 Ks. He’s rolling.

Justin Masterson vs. Rays: So Scott hits him, but no one has really hit Masterson of late. Over his last six starts he’s struck out 36 while walking nine leading to a 1.93 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Maybe he turns around those awful career numbers vs. the Rays (6.80 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 43.2 IP).

Travis Wood vs. Mets: In his lone start against the Mets back on June 25th Wood hurled seven shutout innings. Moreover, he’s won his last three starts while allowing a total of one earned run. Put that together and you have a nice streaming option.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Ryan Braun vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Maybe Wandy hopes he will get dealt to the Brew Crew so he won’t have to keep facing Braun. In 34 career at-bats Braun has hit .412 with four homers and seven RBIs. Rickie Weeks (.353), Aramis Ramirez (.349) and Corey Hart (.386) also kill Wandy.

Miguel Cabrera vs. Bruce Chen: Ten hits in 21 at-bats (.476) and three homers and seven RBIs say to start Cabrera in all leagues. Not like you wouldn’t anyway.

Kevin Youkilis vs. Ricky Romero: The Blue Jays’ lefty has been awful of late whereas Youkilis is finally starting to hit. In 23 career matchups Youkilis is hitting .348 with three bombs leading to a 1.336 OPS.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Rays: In one game against Tampa he tossed 6.2 innings of one run ball. However, it’s his work of late that is so exciting. In his last six starts he has 36 Ks in 40 innings leading to a 2.93 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. It’s pretty much been vintage Ubaldo.

Kyle Lohse vs. Marlins: The last time he took on the Marlins it was 7.1 innings of two run ball. The last three times he has taken the hill against anyone, including that game against the Marlins, it’s been at least seven innings with two or fewer earned runs allowed. Since the start of June, Lohse is 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (over at Fleaflicker people have started to notice his rise).

Jarrod Parker vs. Mariners: In his last start against the club from Seattle it was seven innings of one run ball. In his last four starts overall he has allowed three earned runs. Face it, it may not always be pretty, but the rookie is flat out getting it done every time he takes the hill.

By Ray Flowers  

Around the Horn: June26, 2012

(1) Anthony Rizzo called up by Cubs. Will he kill it from the start?

(2) Trevor Bauer called up by D’backs. An ace in the making?

(3) Kevin Youkilis dealt to White Sox. Can he put it back together?

(4) Chase Utley nearing return. Should you be excited?

(5) Everth Cabrera – speed demon worth a look

(6) John Buck – a power source?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June21, 2012

Each week I’ll answer some of the questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Give up R.A. Dickey to get Mike Tout in 12 team roto?
– @Thewolph86

I recently spoke about Dickey in my Around the Horn video. If you don’t want to take the time to watch my ugly mug talk about him, here are the highlights of what I talked about.

Dickey has allowed one run in five starts.

He’s hurled 42.2 innings without allowing an earned run.

He’s also made 5-straight starts with at least eight Ks and no earned runs allowed, and that is the longest such streak in the history of the game.

His 11 wins lead baseball.

His 2.00 ERA is the best in baseball (tied with the Tommy John surgery headed Brandon Beachy).

He’s second in the NL with 103 strikeouts.

You can make a valid argument, I’m serious here, that Dickey has been the best pitcher in fantasy baseball this year. The fact that he has done that throwing a knuckle ball 86 percent of the time simply boggles the mind, I mean like I discovered how to time time travel and had Izabel Goulart fall in love with me on the same day ridiculous.

Trout has been a dominating force in the fantasy game, and as I pointed out in the video link above, he may be the best player in fantasy baseball since he was called up. Currently hitting .338, second in the AL, and leading the circuit with 19 steals, here is the pace that Trout is on if he were to rack up 600 at-bats this season: .338-18-86-123-58. Those are insanely good numbers, so good in fact that the five-some of figures has never been posted in one season by one player in the history of baseball.

Which player will keep up their historic pace? I think it’s safe to say neither.

Which player would I rather have? I’d go with Trout. Every person that has ever seen Trout play has thought to themselves ‘this guy is a superstar.’ Hell, Dickey’s family has never even thought that once.

Cody Ross or Dexter Fowler rest of season?
– @AshburnCapsFan

You have to love the East Coast and how it causes people to lose their minds (I write that while listening to Empire State of Mind by Jay-Z and Alicia Keys by the way). Somehow people have been brainwashed into thinking that Ross is a must add player in 12 team leagues. Even if you’re starting five outfielders, I’m gonna say that Ross is nothing more then a depth play. The last time Ross hit .275 was an abbreviated 2007. The last time he hit 15 homers was 2009. In a career that began in 2003 he has one season with 75 RBI (90 back in 2009). He’s stolen more than six bases one time (nine in 2010). What in that history lesson suggests that Ross is a lock to start everyday in a fantasy lineup? ‘But Ray, he’s socked nine homers with 25 RBIs in just 39 games this year.’ So what. What’s done is done, and he isn’t going to maintain that pace. He’s striking out at a career worst rate (25.0 percent), isn’t going to keep a HR/F ratio of 21 percent after failing to reach even 15 percent the past four seasons, and he’s hitting .271 with zero steals.

Fowler has been in an out of the lineup a bit recently and you can’t blame the Rockies for that given that he’s hitting .216 in June. Still, this is the guy you want here. Fowler may never live up to expectations given that consistency has always eluded him, and he’s hit just .169 with one homer on the road this season continuing a career trend of struggles away from Coors (career .876 OPS at home and .678 on the road), but he’s the better talent and he has the more dynamic skill set. You can find 18 homer, 70 RBI guys on the waiver wire, but good luck find a guy who who could go 15/15 while scoring 75 runs and knocking in 75 (Fowler is on pace for an effort of .264-19-75-85-17).

Assuming Kevin Youkilis gets traded and Anthony Rizzo is up. Points league: Rizzo or Will Middlebrooks?
– @ogden56

I don’t ever recall a career .141 hitter with less than 50-games of big league experience ever drawing this much attention. Look, I know that Rizzo has elite talent and everyone is gaga over his potential, but what on Earth did he do last year besides being the worst hitter in baseball when he was with the Padres? Rizzo produced one of five seasons in the 21st century of a batter hitting under .150 in 150 plate appearances or more (J.R. Towles, Brandon Wood, Michael Saunders and Jason LaRue re the others). ‘But Ray, Rizzo is killing it in the minors this season.’ Newsflash everyone, he killed it last year in the minors too despite his catastrophic failure with the Padres.

2011 (Triple-A): .331-26-101 with a 1.056 OPS in 93 games

Does that mean that he will have immediate success when the Cubs call him up this time around since he’s been even better this year in the minors?

2012 (Triple-A): .360-23-59 with a 1.115 OPS in 64 games

I’ll remind you of these facts.

Chris Davis has hit .337 with a 1.006 OPS in Triple-A over four years with an average of 28 homers and 106 RBIs per 500 at-bats. Did he have immediate success in the big leagues? Of course not.

Alex Gordon was the Minor League Player of the Year in 2006 after hitting .325 with 29 homers, 101 RBI, 111 runs and 22 steals in just 130 games. Did he have immediate success in the big leagues? Of course not.

Paul Konerko was the #2 prospect in baseball in 1998 after hitting .323 with 37 homers, 127 RBI and 97 runs in 130 minor league games in 1997. He hit .214 with seven homers in his first 224 big league at-bats.

The bottom line is that the path to success isn’t always smooth and linear. I’d take Middlebrooks who continues to impress, has had success at the big league level (.303-7-27 with a .863 OPS in 37 games), and for the fact that he plays third base.

Is Dillon Gee worth a pickup 12 team league?
– @ErikJKatz

Yes.

Of course it would depend on your current pitching staff, but Gee is one of those guys floating around on waiver-wire’s in a lot of 12 team mixed leagues (just check out his owned percentage over at Fleaflicker), and he’s a great guy to target if you’re in need of a boost on the hill.

On the surface Gee has a 4.27 ERA and a 5-3 record. Yippee right? But look beneath that and you see a guy who is gaining momentum. Over his last seven starts he’s pitched at least six innings without allowing more than three earned runs every time (that’s 7-straight “quality starts”). Over his last five outings he’s only walked nine batter. Over his last six outings he’s struck out 40 batters. On the year he owns an 8.24 K/9 mark and his BB/9 rate is 2.48 leading to an impressive 3.32 K/BB ratio. He’s also eliciting plenty of grounders from batters with a 53 percent ground ball rate leading to a 1.94 GB/FB ratio. If you have a K/BB ratio over 3.30 and your GB/FB ratio is over 1.90 you are going to have a ton of long term success. A ton.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your wild party on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

DailyJoust allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Dunn has seen his average dip from .240 to .214 over his past nine games though he has gone deep three times in that time. However, he has racked up 17 Ks (wow). So why mention him for today when he’s facing a lefty, his career long Kryptonite? For whatever reason he kills Wandy hitting .435 with two homers in 23 at-bats.

Raul Ibanez vs. Johan Santana: Ibanez has slumped down to .255 from .270 a little over a week ago, but Mr. Santana, you know Mr. No-Hitter, might be the tonic he needs to turn things around. Ibanez has racked up 16 hits and 10 RBI in 36 at-bats against Johan leading to a .348 batting average. By the way, Derek Jeter also lights Johan up with a .455 average in 33 at-bats.

Rickie Weeks vs. Edinson Volquez: Weeks has been in the discussion for the worst every day player in the NL hitting .160 with a .582 OPS. He’s also gone hitless, 0-for-12, in his last three games. So pull the trigger on starting him Friday? Why not. Against Volquez has has gone 6-for-12 with two homers.

*** Avoid Michael Young who has hit just .232 with a .601 OPS against Barry Zito in 82 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Felix Doubront vs. Phillies: In 27 innings at home this year he has 33 Ks, and over his last five starts he has allowed two or fewer runs each time for a total of eight runs allowed. The Nationals are near the bottom of the league with a .241 batting average an are also in the bottom five in baseball in runs scored (209).

Jeremy Hellickson vs. Marlins: I can’t always explain how he gets it done, but the bottom line is that he does. In 50 career starts he has a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while holding batter to a .218 average. Over his last nine outings this season he’s allowed two or one earned runs seven times with the other two outings resulting in just three runners crossing the plate.

Shaun Marcum vs. Padres: It might seem obvious to start any pitcher against the Padres, but there are also plenty o’ numbers to suggest it’s the right move with Marcum. Career vs. Padres: 2-0, 3.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 4.00 K/BB in three starts. Last two starts this year against the Dodgers and Pirates: 2-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.5 K/BB ratio over 14 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Damon vs. Kyle Lohse: When he isn’t busy making babies with his hot wife, Damon is lashing out hits against the righty from St. Louis. Damon has six hits in 16 at-bats against Lohse leading to a .375 average. Yes, that’s also a picture of Damon’s wife. I wouldn’t care if I got a hit either.

Prince Fielder vs. Bronson Arroyo: On paper this doesn’t look anything like a matchup that favors the Tigers’ slugger. Prince has hit just .238 in 42 at-bats against the righty from Cincy, but there is one obvious reason to play Fielder – power. Fielder has gone deep four times against Arroyo, and since the start of last season Bronson has given up a rather insane total of 54 long balls in 43 starts.

Kevin Youkilis vs. Gio Gonzalez: It’s only 11 at-bats of a matchup, but Youkilis has six hits, including a homer, leading to a .545 AVG an a 1.402 OPS. He’s also hit .303 with a .909 OPS at home in his career, and that’s over 482 games.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Matt Moore vs. Marlins: As a club the Fish are batting .233 with a .307 OBP and .401 SLG against left handed pitching, numbers that all lag behind the average big league hitter this season (.252/.318/.402). Moore has also seemingly started to find his groove as he’s allowed a total of five runs in his last three starts and he has 20 Ks over the 17.2 innings.

Chris Sale vs. Astros: It’s almost like taking candy from a baby, isn’t it? Sale has allowed a total of four runs over his last four starts as he has punched out 36 batters while issuing only seven walks in 4-straight victories. If things go according to plan, the Astros don’t stand a chance.

Jason Vargas vs. Dodgers: It’s a brutal matchup on paper as Vargas has to face the best left-handed pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw. Owner of a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the year, Vargas has flat out dominated at home this year with a 1.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts and in 49 career games at Safeco he is 18-16 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers 

Around the Horn: May23, 2012

(1)  Austin Jackson continues to miss time with abdominal issue (check out how good he has been over at Fleaflicker). Team calls up Quentin Berry.

(2) Mike Napoli – has he really been awful this season?

(3) Roy Oswalt close to signing with the Rangers in wake of injury to Neftali Feliz?

(4) Ryan Braun – guess what, he’s a fantasy superstar once again.

(5) Lance Berkman – will knee surgery knock him out longer than 6-8 weeks?

(6) J.J. Hardy dealing with shoulder soreness.

(7) Carlos Pena batting leadoff again.

(8) Red Sox moving parts around with Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Will Middlebrooks.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 3, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I deal Shane Victorino for Eric Hosmer ?
– @cooperkyle22

I always wonder why Victorino gets such little love in the fantasy game? I know he has no outstanding skill, so that must be the reason. He’s never hit 20 homers. He’s never knocked in 70 runs. He’s never stolen 40 bases. He’s never hit .295 in a season. Come to think of it, why do I like him? Oh wait, I know why, it’s because he is consistently productive across the board. From 2008-2011 an “average” Victorino season has led to a fantasy line of .281-15-63-96-29. Again, none of those numbers jump off the page, but how about we look at it differently. How many players in baseball met all those marks last season? The answer is three – Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp. Victorino fell short at .279-17-61-95-19, still a strong effort that only six other men could match (add in Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton and Melky Cabrera).

Hosmer was talked up to the point this offseason that if he didn’t go .300-30-100 he was going to be viewed as a disappointment. When you look up after 23 games and see that he’s hitting .183 with a .638 OPS people are having to be dissuaded not to end it all. Let’s pull back though for a second an add some perspective. In 151 career games Hosmer has hit .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. How impressive a season would that be for pretty much any first baseman, let alone one that has appeared in just 151 games in his career? In fact, because of the added element of speed that he brings, would it surprise you to learn that not a single first baseman went .276-24-92-79-12 last season? Despite the struggles this year Hosmer has upped his walk rate by about 35 percent while cutting down his strikeout rate. He’s also upped his HR/F ratio to 19.2 percent (13.5 percent last year). It’s also a pretty safe bet that he won’t finish the year with a .162 BABIP. He’ll recover, he’s simply too talented not to.

I’m a big fan of Hosmer who was able to adjust from his struggles last year and rebound to perform, but I’m still going to hold on to Shane Victorino as much for his all-around production as for his history of high level play.

I hated drafting Mark Reynolds and yet I did it. Should I consider dropping him for Will Middlebrooks?
– @SFarup

You know what you get when you roster Reynolds. You get a guy who will be fortunate to hit .240, but one that should produce plenty in the counting numbers. In a highly overlooked situation where people focus more on what Reynolds can’t do than on what he can, it’s often been missed that over the past three years, 2009-11, Reynolds has hit more homers than any other third baseman, posted the second most runs at the position, and been third amongst third sackers in RBI. That’s top-3 in all three categories in case you missed that. However, we’re 20 games into Reynolds season and he’s hitting .136 with no homer, three RBI and four runs. Even I’m scared now. I don’t think he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn, but that has to be a concern at this point. On the plus side Reynolds is currently walking more often than ever before and his BABIP of .257 fits in nicely with his marks of .257 and .266 the past two years. His current line drive rate is also at a three year high. So why the struggles you ask? He hasn’t hit a single home run to boost his average which is a bit odd since he’s actually hit a few more fly balls than normal. He should rebound if given the time to do so (playing time is obviously a big concern at this point).

Middlebrooks was called up when Kevin Youkilis hit the DL with a back issue. Thought of as one of the handful of best prospects in the game at the hot corner, Middlebrooks had two hits in his first game with the Sox and that opened the floodgates for questions about the prospect. Middlebrooks is solid defensively and on offense he has power to all fields. However his K-rate has hovered around 25-30 percent in the minors, and that doesn’t speak to a guy who is going to be a solid average producer in the big leagues. He’s also displayed that solid pop without ever being a big time power threat, and he’s also not very patient at the plate. Don’t get me wrong the guy has a bright future, but at this point of his development he could benefit from some more time at Triple-A, which he figures to get. Why do I say that? When Youkilis is back with the Sox, where does Middlebrooks play? David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez will be the everyday DH and 1B, so what, the Red Sox will put Youkilis on the bench? That’s just not a likely scenario.

Short term you can give Middlebrooks a shot, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that if it was my team I’d hold on to Reynolds.

Evan Longoria replacement with empty slot: stick with my Daniel Murphy or pick up Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson or Chipper Jones?
– @mindmagi

It looks like Longoria will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, a crushing blow for his owners. Since I’ve gotten similar questions from so many people the past few days, here are a few thoughts on the potential replacements.

Murphy: A nice support player because he qualifies at first, second and third base, Murphy has gone 0-for-9 to drop his average down to .283. That’s certainly a mark he can sustain, he’s a career .291 hitter, but his lack of power right now is pretty brutal (no homers in 99 at-bats and just seven RBI). Murphy will never be anything more than a 15 homer bat, it’s just not his game, but when you don’t steal bases, don’t go deep, and don’t knock runners in, your roster spot is in question in a standard mixed league.

Alvarez: The perpetual underachiever is on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he’s doubled his average from .118 to .242 while socking four homers, knocking in 10 runners and scoring eight times. He still has a whopping 24 Ks in 66 at-bats, and just four walks on the season, but at least the hot run of late gives us some hope that he might finally be starting to live up to expectations, even if there are still significant holes in his game.

Johnson: When you get four hits, including two homers, and six RBI in one game people take notice. Hitting .311 with 14 RBI through 23 games for the Astros, Johnson is a pretty blah option. Not only does he have more Ks (24) than games played, he’s also walked only three times leaving him with a career BB/K mark of 0.16 which is so hideous that the appropriately damning adjective simply slips my mind. Johnson, best case scenario, is a .270-20-80 type of effort, but that doesn’t mean he will reach any of those three totals this year.

Jones: Always productive – when he is on the field. Chipper has repeatedly mentioned to the press that his knees are shot, and that it’s a struggle to make it out onto the field every night. Chipper has four homers and 14 RBI through 16 games, and that .273 average is obviously sustainable, but you have to set your sights with him on a replication of last years efforts, nothing more (.275-18-70 in 126 games).

Mariano Rivera and Jesus Montero for Albert Pujols, what do you think?
– @wbischof

Andruw Jones once fell on his face going from an All-Star to after thought in one season. Adan Dunn did is last year. Mark Reynolds may be on his way to doing it this year. Albert Pujols will not follow that path. It’s possible that Pujols will end the year with the worst numbers of his career, he’s been so awful for 25 games that there is a very real possibility that will happen (.208-0-5-9). Still, are you really going to throw out 11 years of excellence over one bad month? If you are I will not be joining you. Does anyone out there honestly doubt that Pujols could hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in his remaining 130 games? I’m not saying he will, but I still think it’s possible.

Rivera, given the lunacy that has occurred in bullpens across baseball, has to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. All he does is go out there, year after year, and produce (check out his efforts over at Fleaflicker). Nothing has changed there at all. Montero has appeared in eight games at catcher (seven starting), so there might still be some leagues where he only qualifies at DH which limits his value. If he qualifies at catcher how can you complain about a guy who is on pace to hit better than .290 with more than 20 homers? You can’t. Still, the guys has 19 Ks in 23 games and he’s walked just two times. Eventually an approach like that is bound to catch up to anyone making Montero hard pressed to be someone you should be looking at hitting .300 this year.

If you’re one of those people who is stuck at catcher – you’ve been rolling out there Kurt Suzuki and Geo Soto – and if you’re bullpen was at one point anchored by Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen, then you could hold on to the duo. If that isn’t the case I’m all about adding Albert Pujols. The breakout is coming.

By Ray Flowers

SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

Last night, live on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we had another hosts draft in which I got to pit my wits against some of the industry leaders in a 12 team, mixed league snake draft. Let’s see how I did.  The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted in the fantasy baseball draft.

C: Kurt Suzuki (16), John Buck (26)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (4)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (12)
MI/CI: Yunel Escobar (18), Billy Butler (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (1), Carl Crawford (5), Shane Victorino (6), Brett Gardner (8), Carlos Lee (20)
UT: Mark Reynolds (11)

SP: James Shields (9), Ricky Romero (10), Brandon Morrow (13), Max Scherzer (15)

RP: Sergio Santos (14), Kenley Jansen (17), Brett Myers (19), Matt Capps (21), Aroldis Chapman (23)

BENCH: Denard Span (22), Ricky Nolasco (24), Erik Bedard (25), Ian Stewart (27), Brian Roberts (28)

* I wanted to roster Nick Hundley or Chris Iannetta as my second catcher, but both were taken the round I was going to add them. I then thought I’d take Carlos Ruiz, but he too was taken so I just waited to add Buck. If you can fill bench spots before you have to fill your starting lineup, you might consider a similar strategy.

* I was certainly tempted to take Joey Votto with my first pick, but two things played into my choice of CarGo. (1) I like the five category skills of Gonzalez a wee bit better. (2) Yahoo, which is the service we held the draft on, pretty much qualifies everyone in the game as a first or third baseman, so I felt comfortable passing on the elite first baseman.

* Speaking of the corners, look at the lineup I rostered. Youkilis can play first or third, ditto with Reynolds, an even Butler qualifies at first in this set up too (so does Lee). People might look at Butler in the 7th round and think that’s too early to take him, but as a first base eligible player he’s of real interest. To compare, Eric Hosmer hit .293 with 19 homers and 78 RBI last year in 523 at-bats while Butler hit .291 with 19 homers and 95 RBI in 597 at-bats. Plus, Butler is a rock of consistency.

* Jeter is old, but I don’t doubt that he’ll hit at least .280 with 15 steals and 80 runs scored – at a minimum. Escobar in the 18th round was also a solid add at middle infielder. Speaking of middle infielders, why in the hell did I take Brian Roberts in the 28th round? Did my computer do on auto-draft? Did I drink too many Paradise Punch’s and think it was 2007? You know how I always preach about knowing your league rules? This is a perfect example. Roberts will start the year on the DL, so if he’s taking up a bench spot in a 12 team mixed league it’s pretty tough to justify his inclusion on your roster. However, this league has DL spots. I drafted Roberts, immediately placed him on the DL after the draft (I was able to add Chad Billingsley). In essence, I’ll get a player I was targeting with my last pick in the draft anyway, an I’ll have Roberts for free cause he isn’t impacting my active roster. If/when Roberts plays, he’ll be effective. It’s just a matter of when that will occur.

* I waited on pitching, but so did everyone else to a certain degree. That resulted in a large number of solid starting pitchers being available late (Nolasco, Bedard types). However, people went hot and heavy on relievers, so I just waited that out. In the end, I’ve got three closers – Santos, Myers, Capps – though I really only like the first one. Still, saves are saves, so I’ll pay the price in the ratio cats to get them from Capps and Myers. I also added Chapman on the off chance that the Reds decide to give him some 9th inning work which is certainly possible (especially after Dusty Baker said the other day that he isn’t locked into using Sean Marshall exclusively in the 9th). As for my starters, see what I say about waiting on arms? Shields, Romero, Morrow and Scherzer all have the talent to win 15 games with at least 175 Ks. I wanted to take Morrow in the 11th but showed patience and got him two rounds later. I also wanted Scherzer in the 13th but was able to get him two round later as well.

So there is the squad. What do you think? Oh, by the way, for the full draft results click on the link to SiriusXM Experts Draft.

To sign up for fantasy baseball, give Fleaflicker a look.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. The participants for this years event are as follows:

Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
Howard Bender, Fangraphs
Mark Chamberlain, Baseball Sharks
Yours Truly
Steve Gardner, USA Today
Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus
Tim Heaney, KFFL
Bill Macey, Baseball HQ
Nicholas Minnix, KFFL
Jeff Paur, RTSports
Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times
Pasko Varnica, Mastersball

*For full bios on all 12 of the participants click on this link to K-BAD Bios.

One of the unique aspects of this draft is that the participants are asked to record their thoughts as they work through the slow draft (it’s done over days while all of us pound out our daily work). As a result, KFFL presents a unique look into the mind of an expert to expose “experts” thoughts and decision making process at the time each of the selections are made. For the full 28 round analysis of the draft, from all the experts, simply click on the link to K-Bad Round Analysis.

Since I’m sure you’re all riveted as to how my team came together, I thought I would reproduce the results of my squad in a couple of articles here at BaseballGuys. So without further ado, here is how the draft played out for me.

Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols was a strong consideration, as was Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately I decided on Cabrera for three reasons: the addition of Prince Fielder, the fact that Cabrera can hit .340, and the soon to be third base eligibility he will pick up.

Round 2: Matt Holliday
Overlooked this year by some, I have little doubt he’ll return to something like a .300-25-100 line in St. Louis even with Albert Pujols out of the mix. Was really hoping that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me at this spot, but missed out on him by a few picks.

Round 3: Kevin Youkilis
Really didn’t love this pick. Was tempted to go with another outfielder, but settled for the stability that Youkilis should bring. Plus, everyone is likely to go heavy on third base, so the next time I pick I’ll be hard pressed to find a comparable talent to Youkilis.

Round 4: B.J. Upton
I was hoping that Ben Zobrist would make it back to me. Obviously he didn’t. I considered Michael Bourn but went with the better all-around performer in Upton. With Cabrera/Youkilis/Holliday I should be able to handle Upton’s poor average.

Round 5: Felix Hernandez
I don’t usually go for pitching early, but I’d bet the 5th and 6th rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 Ks and 220-innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.

Round 6: Howie Kendrick
A perennial option to hit .300, he’s also likely to go 10/10, possibly even 15/15. I was tempted to take Weeks, but look at Week’s games played mark – an average of just 107 games a season the past five years. Give me Kendrick who also has OF eligibility.

Round 7: Shane Victorino
Solid, consistent, across the board producer. That’s Shane Victorino. I was tempted by Shin-Soo Choo here, but I’m worried about Choo returning to .300, and I don’t know if he’s going to swipe 20 bases anymore either. Shane might be slightly boring to some, but he’s a fantastic 3rd outfielder.

Round 8: Mark Reynolds
People might laugh at this selection, but we all know that third base starts to thin out pretty quickly, and Reynolds covers me at first base as well. His average is woeful, but he is one of only five men to have 30 homers, 85 RBI and 75 runs scored each of the past three years.

Round 9: Derek Jeter
Boring? Yes. Old? Yes. Declining skill set? Yes. So why take him? After the selection of Reynolds with my last pick, I need the .290 average that Jeter should bring. There are more exciting options left at shortstop, but I’m looking for some average stability.

Round 10: Ricky Romero
It’s the time in the draft to start building my pitching staff. Romero may not be elite, but he’ll fit in nicely behind King Felix as I have two power sinking fastball types. Considered going closer, but I’ll wait there.

Round 11: Josh Beckett
I considered Matt Garza and Brandon Morrow here. Garza is as consistent as they come, and Morrow has massive upside, but I split the difference and grabbed Beckett.

Round 12: Brandon Morrow
There might be safer pitchers left on the board, but there are none with 250 K potential. If he keeps the walks down again he could shave a run off his ERA.

Round 13: Dustin Ackley
I was tempted to go with a fourth outfielder here and if I didn’t already have three third base eligible guys (Reynolds, Youkilis and Cabrera) I’d have taken Martin Prado.

Round 14: Sergio Santos
The run on closers commenced, and I jumped in the mix. Was tempted to an address my catcher’s spot which is open, but I went with that huge arm of Santos.

In PART II I’ll continue my look at the selections I made before giving an overall wrap up.

By Ray Flowers

Third Base: A Wasteland?

The assumption in 2012 is that third base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. Over at MockDraftCentral people seem to be agreeing with that line of thought as everyone is jumping in early to roster their man at the hot corner. There are nine third baseman going in the top-85 selections, and that doesn’t include Jose Bautista who would bring that number to ten (he’s listed as an outfielder though he obviously qualifies at third base). After that group there are three other third base eligible players going in picks 85-200… a vast span of time for only three third sackers to be drafted. So what’s going on at third base? Some thoughts follow.

Last year only three third base eligible performers hit .300: Michael Young (.338), Aramis Ramirez (.306) and Jose Bautista (.302).

Last year four third base eligible performers hit 30 homers: Bautista (43), Mark Reynolds (37), Adrian Beltre (32) and Evan Longoria (31).

Last year only three third base eligible performers posted 100 runs batted in: Young (106), Beltre (105) and Bautista (103).

Last year only one third base eligible player had 90 runs scored: Bautista (105).

All told, shockingly, there were three third base eligible players who hit .270 with 20 homers, 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but only three guys were able to hit all three benchmarks (Bautista, Beltre and Ramirez)? Clearly there is a lack of stardom at the hot corner, or is there?

In 2012 injuries limited Pablo Sandoval to 117 games, David Wright to 102, Ryan Zimmerman to 101 and Alex Rodriguez to 99.  What if all of those guys play 140 games in 2012? That would give us eight guys to count on (in addition to the three above players who hit all four benchmarks).

That group of seven doesn’t include Evan Longoria who is going in the top-15 in every draft this season. That’s gets us up to eight third sackers.

Kevin Youkilis appeared in only 120 games last year, but the pace he set, if he played 145 games, would equate to 21 homers, 97 RBI and 82 runs. That’s nine quality third baseman.

Mark Reynolds may only be a .225 type of hitter, but his power and run production is elite. The last three years he has hit 113 homers, the most at the position. He has 273 RBI, the third highest total at the position. He’s also scored 261 runs, second to Longoria (274) amongst third sackers. That’s 10 quality third basemen.

Brett Lawrie is going off the board as the 5th third baseman ahead of Arod. I may not think he deserves to go that high despite oodles of talent, but even if I were to knock him down the board substantially he’s still a guy who everyone could agree is worthy of a top-12 pick.

Though Michael Young hit only 11 homers last season he hit .338, knocked in 106 runners and scored 88 times. Pretty sure he belongs in the top-12 at the hot corner.

So that’s 12 third basemen that you can pretty easily turn to. If you’re in a 12 team league that means nearly everyone who comes to the dance will have a hottie to hold (and this discussion hasn’t even included guys like Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez who will be playing third base this year).

You want more love at third?

David Freese was the MVP of the world during the playoffs last year. For more on Freese see his Player Profile.

Ryan Roberts hit 19 homers, stole 18 bases and he scored 86 runs, the third highest total at the position.

Mike Moustakas, according to most observers, is a 25-90 bat waiting to happen.

Chase Headley has the potential to go 15/15 and score plenty of runs with his approach. OK, maybe that’s a stretch, but he still has talent (see his Player Profile).

I could go on and talk about former elite level prospects like Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez and why it makes sense to take a shot on both late in drafts this season, but I think the point has been made. While third base may be a little top heavy, I’d argue that unless you’re in a deep league that you should feel pretty confident that there are enough men who man the hot corner to go around.

By Ray Flowers