Waiver-Wire Adds

photo © 2008 Dirk | more info (via: Wylio)

You’re in a 12 team league that starts 14 hitters and nine pitchers with five or six guys on your bench. If you are in a setup such as this the following guys might be available for you to add. The question is – should you?

Mike Adams: The best pitcher in baseball? Through 14 innings he hasn’t walked a better and has allowed three hits. That’s a 0.21 WHIP folks. Toss in a 0.64 ERA and the guy been utterly amazing. He’s worth a look in a 12 teamer while pitching like this just don’t expect too many saves since Heath Bell is currently working on the 6th longest consecutive save streak in big league history (40).

Alberto Callaspo: He might be hitting .301, but he’s really nothing more than a replacement level player. Callaspo has never hit more than 11 homers in a season, and he has all of 10 steals in his career. His average won’t hurt you, it sits at .280 for his career, and it is impressive that he’s currently sporting a substantial increase in his walk rate which has led to a .381 OBP, some .051 points clear of his career rate. Unfortunately he likely only qualifies at third base, but with all the injuries at that position he might be worth a short-term add.

Doug Fister: This hurler owns a solid 1.28 WHIP during his young career, and his ERA also sits below four at 3.92. Unfortunately his K/9 rate is just 5.19, so there is little in the way of upside here. Fister’s xFIP last year – a measure designed to show what a pitchers true ERA should be (including normalization for ballpark) – says that his mark last year was 4.10, that it is 4.16 this year and 4.18 for his career. Given that his ERA’s his first two years were 4.13 and 4.11, do you really think he has a good shot to keep his ERA below three this year (it’s currently 2.70)?

Kosuke Fukudome: He lit up April hitting .383/.486/.400. So the initial thought is that he must finally have figured it out. Probably not. He’s still being platooned sitting against lefties (only six at-bats against southpaws this year), and if you look at his career April is always his best month of the season. Moreover, its the only month he has hit better than .280 (.338), his only one with an OBP over .382 (it’s .448) an a SLG over .455 (it’s .507). History says you should expect things to go south pretty soon.

Todd Helton: The Rockies’ first sacker is a legitimate option at the corner infield spot, especially with guys like Daric Barton and James Loney struggling. Helton isn’t likely to reach his totals from 2009 (.325-15-86-79) but it’s doubtful he’ll be as bad as he was last year either (.256-8-37-48). As long as his back doesn’t betray him his bat can play as a depth option.

Phil Humber: His spot in the rotation isn’t secure with Jake Peavy nearing a return, but Humber has performed admirably. However, he doesn’t strike anyone out (5.85 per nine), and there is little chance that he will be  able to continue to keep his HR/9 so low (it’s 0.56) and there is no chance he’ll keep his hit rate down at .212 (that’s some .065 points below his career rate).

Conor Jackson: A first round draft pick with beautiful stroke, Jackson was a solid performer from 2006-08 as a guy who was hitting .290 with 15 homers and 70 RBI. He then picked up West Valley Nile River Mekong Delta Virus or whatever it’s called. It ruined his 2009 and 2010 seasons. Playing time is an issue this season, the A’s have seemingly 47 hitters on their roster, but Conor is looking just like his old self hitting .298 with a .375 OBP and his normally stellar BB/K ratio (1.00). He’s worth an add if he continues to play every day.

Jason Marquis: He’s 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA. Come on, seriously though? Marquis will take the ball every five games, throw a lot of innings, and produce double-digit wins. He does it every year he is healthy. He also owns a career ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.42 over more than 1,500 big league innings. He’s totally on his game right now and might be worth a spot start or two in the short-term, but you can’t count on him to be anything more than your last starter – and even that may not be a deal you’ll want to make in a mixed league.

By Ray Flowers

It's an Odd World

I was struck by quite a few oddities on this day as I sat down to pen this entry, so I just went with that theme for today.

Mat Latos was reportedly hitting 97 mph on the radar gun last night in his seven shutout innings against the Giants. Latos was almost matched on the night by the Giants Jonathan Sanchez who allowed only one run in his seven innings as the Giants lost 1-0. Moreover, Sanchez struck out 10 while allowing only one hit in the loss. Three points. (1) The last time that the Giants lost a game in which they allowed only one hit World War I was happening – it was September 22nd, 1917. (2) Latos is a potential stud. I worry though that the Padres will limit him to 150-160 innings, so it might be wise to ride him for a while and then move him to a leaguemate who isn’t aware that his innings will be limited. (3) I keep saying it, and people keep laughing at me, but Sanchez just might end up being as valuable as Clayton Kershaw in 2010. Seriously.

The Cubs are a mess, and Lou Pinella isn’t one to sit idly by. He’s already switched the lineup around moving Marlon Byrd (vs. lefties) and Kosuke Fukudome (vs. righties) to the top of the order, and now the team is making a change in the rotation. With Ted Lilly set to return from his minor league rehab assignment this weekend, and with that a starter will need to be moved to the bullpen. Speculation was rampant on Twitter today about who it might be, and ultimately the man chosen to move might have been the one least likely to have taken on a bullpen role – and that is Carlos Zambrano. Big Z hasn’t made a bullpen appearance since 2002. Zambrano certainly has the stuff to dominate in shorts stints, but there are two big concerns. First, he often has no idea where the strike zone is, and you don’t want a late game arm coming in walking guys. Second, Zambrano is the hot head of hot heads. How anyone thinks that matches a role where, even at best, you often end up blowing things for your team, is beyond me. Be very afraid Cubs fans, but if you can, hold on to him in fantasy leagues cause this simply cannot last (sooner or later Carlos Silva will implode).

Mark Ellis missed seven games with a hamstring injury before playing last night. Well, he suffered a setback and today the A’s placed him on the DL. So, he’ll now have to miss 15 more games. Would the team have been better off just placing him on the DL when the injury initially occurred, thereby saving them a week of time? Probably. Too bad the Red Sox did the same thing with their handling of the rib injury to Jacoby Ellsbury (they left him on the bench, but not on the DL, for a week and a half before deciding to DL him).

Prince Fielder isn’t hitting his weight, which is something when you way like a quarter of a ton (he is hitting .224). Beyond the concern with the batting average there is the fact that he hasn’t gone deep in 49 at-bats. Well, I guess we know why – he has a sore hand. I have a sore wrist, but it hasn’t precluded me from continuing to type out really good articles the past week (I must be tougher than Prince).

Zack Greinke allowed two runs over seven innings against the Blue Jays only to see his bullpen cough up the lead and the game. He’s now 0-2 through four starts despite a 3.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

Speaking of the Royals, Jose Guillen continues to mash as if he was the reincarnated Josh Gibson. Guillen is hitting .377 with six homers and 13 RBI through 15 games. How is that for a forgotten man in the fantasy game?

Oh, and one last thing. Mr. Lyle Overbay, my starting first basemen in JEDWARS, an AL-only league, please remember how to hit. How he is batting .119 through 59 at-bats, considering that he owns a .277 career average, is simply astounding. It also goes to show you that things always even out. What do I mean? I have Guillen going absolutely nuts on that same squad, though his production has pretty much been negated by the failures of Overbay.

By Ray Flowers

The Little Things Matter

With all the big deals in the game of baseball the past couple of days, I wanted to make sure I didn’t neglect a couple of the lesser names on the market, either those that have signed or those that are on the brink of inking a new deal.

Why is Marlon Byrd such a hot option? I know he had a nice season with a .283 average, 20 homers and 89 RBI for the Rangers, but does any of that really excite anyone in fantasyland? Maybe not, but the Cubs certainly appear to want to add the 32 year old to their outfield for next season, that if they can ever rid themselves of malcontent Milton Bradley. As for Byrd, I know last season was his first full year in the bigs 9at-bat wise), but he has been over 400 at-bats in each of the past three seasons. Still, he has only one season with more than 10 homers, and he owns a career line of .279/.340/.422, and that ain’t much better than average folks. BY the by, here is how he has done per 162 games in his career: .279-12-69-78-8 with a .762 OPS. Don’t know about you, but I don’t think anyone should be too excited about adding that bat, especially the Cubs since they already have a virtually identical batter in Kosuke Fukudome who hit .259-11-54-79 with six steals last season.

Mike Cameron is a Red Sox. What can we expect from him in 2010? Glad you asked. You can read my thoughts in Breaking Down: Mike Cameron.

Jeff Francoeur hit .319 over his final 36 games last season, and overall he .311 with a .498 SLG in 75 games with the Mets, a marked improvement over his early season work with the Braves (.250, .352 SLG in 82 games). With late season numbers like that you would think that he was fully healthy at the end of the year. In fact, you might think he was injured earlier in the year given the struggles with the Braves. Well if you thought that you would be wrong. Turns out Frenchie had left thumb surgery after the season, and the thumb was so jacked up that the doctors needed to replace a ligament (one was taken from his forearm). He should be fully healed by the time the season starts, and he is clearly one tough cookie.

Matt Holliday was reportedly offered an 8-year deal for $128 million by the Cardinals. However, Buster Olney of ESPN refuted the St. Louis Post-Dispatch report and said the team doesn’t want to go beyond five years. No matter what the offer is, it doesn’t seem likely to be enough to entice Matt Holliday, at least for the moment. To read more about the whole Holliday saga give Ryan Boyer’s Is it five years or eight years for Holliday?

I gave my thoughts on the outlook of Hideki Matsui in his new home with the Angels in Breaking Down: Hideki Matsui.

John Lackey and the Red Sox continue to hold off on officially ratifying the 5-year deal that is thought to be worth $85 million. Looks like the Sox want to have the contract include some language in it to protect themselves from any previously suffered injuries, should the arise again. It’s really just semantics – don’t worry, the deal will get done.

Seems like Ben Sheets is still angling for a one year deal worth $12 million. Of course that includes a boatload of bonuses built into the deal, but after missing all of last season is there really a team out there that is crazy enough to offer him that much even if its almost entirely incentive based?

By Ray Flowers