Draft Day Challenge, April 9

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, I’ll also be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 9th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. John Buck
2. Wilin Rosario

Not only does Buck have three homers and 12 RBIs in just seven games (the most RBIs in Mets history over the first seven games of the season), but he’s facing Cliff Lee, a pitcher who he has hit .292 with three homers against in 48 at-bats.

The Rockies’ backstop is hitting .350 with three homers on the year, and Rosario also has four hits, including a home run, in nine at-bats against Tim Lincecum.

FIRST BASE
1. Todd Helton
2. Adrian Gonzalez

Helton is broken down, old, and generally ineffective. However, he’s always risen to the occasion against Tim Lincecum who he is hitting .359 with a .479 OBP against across 39 at-bats.

I don’t know how this is possible, but in eight at-bats against Clayton Richard A-Gone has only gone back to the dugout once without reaching base. That’s right, he’s got seven hits in eight at-bats (.875 with all the hits being singles). He’s not playing, but Hanley Ramirez has been even better with nine hits in 10 at-bats against Richard.

SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley
2. Donovan Solano

Utley is only 2-for-8 against Dillon Gee, but he’s hit .301 with a .918 OPS at home in his career and he’s also managed a .297 average and .888 OPS against righties in his career.

Solano has six hits in his last five games and is batting .292 on the young season. He’s also produced four hits, including two homers, in seven at-bats against Kris Medlen.

THIRD BASE
1. Juan Uribe
2. Chris Johnson

Uribe flat out kills it against Clayton Richard as he’s hit .385 with a 1.159 OPS, including two homers, against the lefty in 26 at-bats.

Johnson is only 1-for-3 against Wade LeBlanc in his career, but he had three hits Monday and his career numbers against lefties say he would produce about 78 RBIs over 550 at-bats.

SHORTSTOP
1. Jed Lowrie
2. Ruben Tejada

Tejada has a hit in three of his last four games, and on the year he has five walks versus four strikeouts. He’s also had a bunch of success against Cliff Lee with six hits in 13 at-bats (.462).

According to ESPN, Lowrie hasn’t sung and missed the last five games covering a total of 31 swings. He’s also produced nine line drives in the 19 balls he’s put into play.

OUTFIELD
1. Jon Jay
2. Jeff Francoeur

Jay is hitting .242 on the young season, but he’s a career .299 hitter who is about to face Bronson Arroyo, a hurler who he has 10 hits in 25 at-bats against (.400).

Francoeur has hit .316 in 19 at-bats against Mike Pelfrey. Frenchie has also been mildly effective at Kauffman Stadium in his career hitting .271 with 17 homers and 67 RBIs over 569 at-bats.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Wily Peralta vs. Cubs
2. Kris Medlen vs. Marlins
3. Andy Pettitte vs. Indians
4. Brandon Maurer vs. Astros

Peralta faces the Cubs, and the Cubbies are hitting .186. One-eighty-six, with an OPS of 540 folks. Last season Tim Hudson, he’s a pitcher in case you forgot (though he used to DH in college), hit .218 with a .523 OPS. Just saying.

Medlen isn’t facing the Astros, more on that below, but he is facing an terrible Marlins club that is hitting .228 with a .295 OBP and .298 SLG. They’ve also only gone deep two times while scoring 14 runs in seven games.

Pettitte has a 2.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last 13 starts. In his last six starts against the team from Cleveland he’s also posted a 2.86 ERA.

Maurer looked pretty bad in his first outing as he allowed six runs in six innings, but at this point, how do you not consider any hurler against the Astros? The club from Houston is hitting .201 with a .234 OBP and .275 SLG. Honestly, you can’t be a professional club and do any worse.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Baseball Finale

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray take a look back at the season that is almost over. They discuss surprises. Mistakes they made to begin the season, and predictions that did AND didn’t come true.

Raul Ibanez, J.D. Martinez, Bryan LaHair, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Rickey Romero, Edwin Encarnacion, Chase Headley, A.J. Pierzynski, R.A. Dickey, Chris Sale, Kris Medlen.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Mailbag: September20, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Would you start Chris Carpenter Friday or wait and see?
– @lxvythrs

Chris Carpenter (thoracic outlet syndrome) last tossed a pitch of significance in October of 2011. That’s 11 months ago folks. I know that he is set to pitch Friday against the Cubs, but you have to be pretty desperate in my opinion to turn to Carpenter at this point of the fantasy season (obviously in H2H setups he might hold a bit more value as a streaming option depending on your league rules). Beyond the obvious, that he hasn’t tossed a single pitch of significance in 2012, we have the following. (1) Do you know how many pitches he has thrown in the minor leagues this season? Don’t bother looking it up. The answer is zero. (2) All he has done is throw simulated games. The last time he did so was last Saturday as he tossed a 95 pitch simulated game. Playing that out, it would seem logical to think that, even in a best case scenario, that he will throw at most six innings and that likely is asking too much. Could Carpenter toss a gem Friday? He certainly could. But given that he has been out of action for nearly a calendar year I’m not ready to throw him out there at such an important time of the year in the fantasy game unless I’m one of those people who doesn’t mind taking risks like diving with sharks, skydiving or going out to a restaurant to eat dinner by yourself (apparently going to dinner without a companion is risky behavior according to some).

Better keeper for next year – Johnny Cueto or Kris Medlen?
– @KRubes

Medlen has been the best pitcher in baseball in the second half. He’s undefeated at 8-0. Moreover, the Braves have won each of Medlen’s last 21 starts, the longest streak in baseball since Whitey Ford’s Yankees won 22-straight starts of his in the early 1950′s. He’s posted an ERA of 0.77. He has a WHIP of 0.84. He’s struck out 83 batters in 82.1 innings while walking only 13 batters. That’s as good a pitching line as you will likely ever see over a span of 82.1 innings. I hope we can all agree that the prospects of Medlen being that pitcher over the course of 180+ innings next year is infinitesimally minute, so the question is how much will his performance pull back in 2013? In order to try and get a feel for the answer to that question, let’s compare Medlen’s career numbers, over just slightly more than 300 innings, to those of Cueto.

Medlen: 7.88 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 3.63 K/BB, 1.42 GB/FB
Cueto: 7.01 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 2.50 K/BB, 1.24 GB/FB

Medlen has the slight advantage across the board, but the numbers are close. There is obviously the additional factor that Cueto has been a starting pitcher who has thrown more than 170 effective innings innings in four of his five seasons in the big leagues. There’s also this. Since the start of last season, here are the numbers for Cueto who has been no slouch in his own right.

26-14, 2.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.65 K/9, 2.87 K/BB

Neither player is a bad pitcher to hold of course, but I’m leaning to the history of Cueto in this matchup. Medlen might have slightly better skills than Cueto, but without even a full season of innings under his belt as a starter I will cast my lot into the corner of the Reds’ hurler.

Manny Machado vs. Elvis Andrus 2013?
– @ghostyoda

Tough one here.

Machado is one of the elite prospects in the game, period. He’s performed admirably this season hitting .264 with four homers, 17 RBIs and 17 runs scored in 38 games this season with the Orioles in his first taste of big league pitching. At the same time he’s walked just three times in 148 at-bats, and that makes me very nervous with a young player. As a result of his lack of patience he’s currently been able to get on base at a mere .276 rate, an awful number. Machado has also struck out 30 times leading to a sickening 0.10 BB/K mark. This shouldn’t be surprising though considering that Machado had only 109 games of Double-A ball under his belt and not a single game at the Triple-A level when he made his Orioles debut. Not just that, but Machado really wasn’t producing that well in the minor leagues either. In his 109 games at Double-A this season he was hitting a mere .266 with 11 homers. In time Machado, the 3rd overall pick in the 2010 Entry Draft, will likely be a borderline elite fantasy performer. He’s big (6’3”, 185 lbs), athletic, has 20 homer power and should also be able to steal 15 or so bases a year. Notice I said in time.

Andrus is already an elite level performer at the shortstop position, albeit without a hint of the power of Machado. To counterbalance that is the fact that Andrus is an impressive base stealing option. Andrus has stolen 20 bases this year, the fourth straight season he has reached that mark (in fact, it’s 4-year low as he had hit the 30 steal mark in each of his first three seasons). Andrus is also batting .291 this season, the best mark of his young career, as is his .353 OBP and .388 SLG. Andrus has also recorded at least 80 runs scored in each of his last three seasons.

At this point I’d go with Andrus. Machado may be the upside play, and perhaps in a few years he will eclipse Andrus in terms of his fantasy value, but for now the 20 year old Machado is simply too raw an inexperienced to take over a player who has been an impressive fantasy option for each of the last four years.

How many beers will it take to get over blowing a 40 point July lead in my 7×7 roto league?
– @mdbaumer

I’d say it would at least be a pony keg’s worth. Might want to add something a bit stronger, perhaps a lot stronger, something like a Lemon Drop maybe?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT. 

Fantasy Beat – Looking at the Mound

Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman discuss some surprise pitchers this season and some good spot starters down the stretch:  Matt Wieters, Ryan Reynolds, Kris Medlen, Hisashi Iwakuma, Zach Britton, Jason Hammel, Jeremy Guthrie and Chris Archer.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Around the Horn: September 4, 2012

(1) Kris Medlen, best pitcher in baseball?

(2) Jacoby Ellsbury struggling to produce.

(3) Chase Headley – out of control. Just killing it.

(4) Marco Scutaro strong pickup for Giants.

(5) Chris Iannetta surging at the dish.

(6) Wil Myers Minor League Player of the Year. Not getting called up Royals?

(7) Troy Tulowitzki nearing a return from groin injury?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August23, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Who wins: C.J. Wilson $11, Colby Rasmus $8, Matt Holliday $30, Arod $33, Kyle Seager $6 for Mike Trout $15?
– @BradfordEra

I know what I would do here, but apparently my position on the matter is the exact opposite of what everyone else on Twitter seems to think.

Trout has been phenomenal. He’s currently hitting .343 with 24 homers, 70 RBIs, 97 runs scored and 39 steals in a mere 101 games. Still, as I’ve written time after time, Trout can’t possibly perform at this level year after year. I know, I know, no one agrees with me, in fact people vehemently disagree with me and think he is going to hit .333 with 30 homers and 50 steals every year, but I’m not changing my point of view on the matter. Let’s talk again a year from now. Regardless, Trout will go for three times that $15 cost in many, if not all leagues next year, so he is an amazing value for 2013 at just $15.

Still, I’d take the other side.

Wilson has slumped of late, but he is well on his way to a third straight solid season and the $11 cost for him is reasonable. He’ll go for more than $11 in many mixed leagues next year.

Rasmus has certain holes in his game, and he’s about as inconsistent as they come, but he’s still already posted 20 homers and 66 RBIs this season, and for $8 he’s a solid value who will likely go for twice as much on draft day 2013.

Holliday at $30 is a wee bit steep for some (not this scribe), that is until you look at his production. On pace for another .300-30-100-100 effort, Holliday is about as stable a top level option as there is in the game. He’s a rock. Building around him at $30, there is nothing wrong with that at all.

Arod at $33 – no way you keep him for that. I wouldn’t even keep him for $23. At this point, I may not even keep him at half the cost of his keeper value. Drop Arod after the deal is completed.

Seager for $6 is a nice deal too. He’s only appeared in 14 games at second this year, but that might give him second base eligibility in some leagues. Regardless, he has 13 homers and 68 RBIs in his first full season in the big leagues. He’s a sneaky play that could return twice his draft day cost in value.

I’d do this deal provided that you don’t have to keep Rodriguez (he’d be an anchor at $33), but I could certainly see why someone would want to hold on to Trout since he is a special value.  As great a player as Trout is, the totality of the players you would be keeping, an at a solid cost, would give you a solid foundation to build around. Plus, the money that you would be saving on your keepers, since all but Arod come at a fair price, will afford you the ability to overspend a bit on draft day for a player or two.

Kris Medlen or Matt Harvey?
– @DaReelGiamcarlo

Both these guys are rolling right now.

Medlen has won each of his last three starts, and the last two times he has taken the hill he hasn’t allowed a single run. Going back a bit further, Medlen has allowed a total of three runs in his five starts for the Braves. Three. In those five outings Medlen has a 0.83 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, eight strikeouts per nine innings an a 5.80 K/BB ratio. That’s about as good as you can pitch. Add in an impressive 1.94 GB/FB ratio on the season and you’ve got a fella who is (a) performing at optimal levels and (b) a rate that he can’t possibly sustain.

Harvey has the bigger arm, and he likely has the brighter future. In six starts this season Harvey has 43 punchouts in 36 innings, and that has led to an impressive 10.75 K/9 mark. He’s been walking a few too many batters, but with all those punchouts his 2.87 K/BB ratio is still solid. Harvey has also allowed just two runs while walking three batters and striking out 17 over his last two outings. There’s nothing wrong with Harvey’s performance to this point for the Mets, but there is this – he’s on an innings pitched count. The Mets have professed that they want to keep Harvey in the 165-70 range with innings this season. That makes sense given that he threw 135.1 innings last season, not to mention that the Mets have nothing to play for so there is no need to risk the future. By the way, Harvey has thrown 146 innings thus far.

I’d go with Medlen who is pitching better and doesn’t have an innings pitched count to worry about.

Jonathan Lucroy, Geo Soto, Alex Avila, Josh Donaldson @ catcher next 2 weeks?
– @kevin5464

As we get toward the end of the season, I’ve gotten a few questions like this one with people wanting me to give advice on short-term situations. Here’s the truth everyone – I have no idea. No one does. Simply put, the sample size is just too small. Take this example.

The last two weeks Todd Frazier is hitting .469 with five homers, 13 RBIs, 13 runs and two steals. If you were only looking at two weeks with numbers like that you would have to say he was a better option the next two weeks than Adrian Gonzalez who has really struggled a bit the past two weeks (.217-4-13-5). How many people would prefer Frazier over A-Gone, even in the short-term? Probably not many.

Or how about this. Which player would you rather have based on their August numbers?

.253-2-10 with a .719 OPS
.389-2-10 with a 1.012 OPS

You just chose to keep John Jay (player #2) over Andrew McCutchen.

Two weeks is just too small a time frame to accurately predict how a batter will perform. If you’re gonna try look at things like where will the games be played, how many games will the batter have,  who are the hurlers on the hill that he will be facing, wow has the player performed the past few weeks and what is the players skill set?

Quickly, my thoughts on each guy.

Lucroy is hitting .325 with eight homers and 41 RBIs – in 200 at-bats. That is about as impressive a pace as any catcher could ever hope for (think of it, only 400 at-bats would lead to a .325-16-82 line at that pace). He hasn’t quite been that gutter since he returned from injury, he’s hit. 279 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 21 games, but that’s still solid production for a hitter who is clearly performing over his head.

Soto has six hits in his last four games. He’s also picked up an RBI in 4-straight games. Still, he’s hitting just .208 with a .643 OPS this season, and he hasn’t been much better with the Rangers since he was dealt to the American League (.236 with a .682 OPS over 16 games).

Avila hit .295 with 19 homers and 82 RBIs last year, a simply tremendous effort for a backstop. This year, not so much. Avila is hitting just .250 with seven homers and 35 RBIs. He’s obviously not reaching any of last year’s benchmarks. Avila is hitting .294 with a .390 OBP in August, but he still has only one homer and 15 RBIs since the start of June (47 games).

Donaldson has been killing it with 12 hits in his last six outings as his average has shot up from .167 to .226. He is the definition of a hot player that is an intriguing add if you are looking for a quick boost. Could his addition lead to greatness for the next few weeks? Possibly. But as often happens, by the time you realize a guy is hot, like Donaldson, you’ve missed the best he has to offer. There’s no way he gets 12 hits in his next six outings. Not just that, his overall performance this season has been poor, and that three walk, 31 K effort really makes me nervous.

The best catcher this season has been Lucroy. He’d be my choice to roll with out of this quartet.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: August 5, 2010

(1) Russell Martin could be done for year.

(2) Carlos Santana is done for year.

(3) Kevin Youkilis done for year.

(4) Kris Medlen likely done for year.

(5) Matt Capps, Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde all blow games.

(6) Jason Bay not close to a return.

(7) Will we see Carlos Delgado again?

(8) I love numbers, and in By the Numbers I point out some off the most interesting ones I’ve come across in the past 24 hours.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 30, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes injured in batting practice. Should be OK.

(2) Nate McLouth still having concussion related symptoms.

(3) Erik Bedard nearing a return to big leagues.

(4) Bengie Molina to be moved to the Rangers?

(5) Clayton Richard has 10 Ks vs. the Rockies.

(6) Mike Gonzalez might be out until All-Star break.

(7) B.J. Upton out with quad injury.

(8) Jair Jurrjens returns for the Braves.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 25, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano goes bonkers in dugout is suspended.

(2) Jair Jurrjens likely to return to the rotation next Wednesday.

(3) Carlos Beltran back by Monday?

(4) Carl Crawford’s shoulder still bothering him.

(5) Aramis Ramirez back from thumb injury.

(6) Jake Peavy coming on strong.

(7) A big announcement coming on Monday.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May10, 2010

(1) Jair Jurrjens felt a pop in hamstring during rehab. Will be sent for an MRI.

(2) Jason Heyward to return on Tuesday from his groin injury.

(3) Huston Street off on minor league rehab stint – should be back in two weeks with the Rockies.

(4) Troy Tulowitzki will avoid DL but he will also likely miss a few days with his quadriceps injury.

(5) Oliver Perez will remain a starter for Mets despite 25 walks in 30 innings.

(6) Josh Beckett will have start pushed back to Friday with Tim Wakefield making a start.

(7) Dallas Braden perfect game anecdotes.

By Ray Flowers