Draft Day Challenge, May 16

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s every week, I’ll share some insight into a few of the better plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Tyler Flowers
2. Kurt Suzuki

Flowers is hitting .333 the past week and he faces the middling Jerome Williams who has allowed seven runs over his last 11 innings despite being solid this year with a 3.06 ERA.

Wilson Ramos is hurt again, and it looks like a DL stint could be coming. Suzuki should get lots of work behind the dish, and he’s got a hit in nine of his last 10 games.

FIRST BASE
1. Lyle Overbay
2. Adam LaRoche

A surprising contributor for the Yankees this season, Overbay should keep the good times rolling against Aaron Harang whom he has 11 hits in 24 at-bats against (.458 average).

LaRoche has gone 5-for-14 (.357) against Mr. Volquez with two walks leading to a .438 OBP. LaRoche has also been hot of late (.321 with a homer and four RBIs the past week) making him a strong play.

SECOND BASE
1. Marco Scutaro
2. Dustin Pedroia

Scutaro is hitting .480 the past week with six runs scored. When you are producing like that it doesn’t matter who you are facing (it’s Jhoulys Chacin in Colorado where Scutaro has hit .378 for his career).

Can Mr. Cobb of the Rays stop Pedroia who has 12 hits in his last 24 at-bats (.500)?

THIRD BASE
1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Adrian Beltre

I’ve never been a huge fan of Jhoulys Chacin, not when pitching in Colorado, and that’s where he takes the hill against Pablo Sandoval who is hitting .412 with two homers against him in 17 at-bats.

It’s tough to go with anyone when they face Justin Verlander, but Beltre has long held his own. He’s hit .314 with a homer in 35 at-bats, though his OPS has only been .771.

SHORTSTOP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Yunel Escobar

Tulo is the best hitting shortstop in the game right now (Tulo is hitting .322, has a 1.013 OPS and 32 RBIs in 36 games). He’s also murdered Matt Cain hitting .340 with four homers in 53 games. The matchup will also take place in Colorado. Nuff said.

Escobar has four hits in 10 at-bats against the struggling Felix Doubront (he’s allowed a whopping 12 runs over his last nine innings pitched). Escobar might finally be pulling out of his season long slump as well as he’s hit in four straight and seven of eight games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jason Bay
2. Dayan Viciedo

Want a cheap outfield option who has had a great amount of success against the hurler he’s facing? Bay has hit .400 in 35 at-bats against Andy Pettitte who has a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP the past three weeks.

Viciedo has looked good since he returned to action (Viciedo has hits in nine of 10 games, and he’s gone deep twice with four RBIs in his last three outings). Can’t get any better than he has been against Jerome Williams though as he is a perfect 5-for-5. He even has a walk which might be more shocking.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Alex Cobb
4. Matt Cain

Quintana has a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 ERA on the season, and he faces the Angels in Anaheim Thursday. In his last outing he allowed six base runners and two earned runs over six innings against this same Angels club. Does the hitters familiarity, having seen him less than a week ago, scare you off?

Volquez has a 3-0 record and 2.49 ERA the past three weeks as he’s all of a sudden locked in. He’s facing a Nats team that is down Jayson Werth and potentially Bryce Harper, but that’s still a solid club and the game is on the road where Volquez often struggles.

Cobb had an astounding 13 Ks in his last outing, astrounding because he only recorded 14 outs (that’s the first time that has ever happened in big league history). Cobb faces the Red Sox, a team he allowed three earned runs, while striking out six batters, in a 6.2 inning loss on April 14th. He has a 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over four starts agianst the Sox.

Cain pitches in Colorado, and that’s always a difficult thing for any hurler, but Cain has pitched very well against the Rockies in his career with a 15-7 record an a 3.11 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in Colorado. Cain is also 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA the past three weeks.

By Ray Flowers

Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

The review of my season in the abyss continues as I’ll take a look today at the Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio Hosts’ League club that I put together.

Kurt Suzuki and John Buck were total failures. In the piece I just linked to above I mentioned how close I was to getting Carlos Ruiz. Oh well.

Kevin Youkilis (.235-19-60-72) had a lost season wearing White and Red Sox.

Dustin Pedroia had a solid season with 15 homers, 20 steals and 81 runs scored, but injuries limited him to his worst season of 140 games played.

Derek Jeter was on a whole lot of my teams this year. Turns out he was a hell of a lot better than anyone, well almost anyone, thought he would be (.316-15-59-99-9).

Billy Butler was a superstar posting the best numbers of his career (.313-29-107-72). I don’t think he can get much better – at least in the homer column.

My outfield was a mixed bag. CarGo (.303-22-85-89-20) was once again star. Carl Crawford was once again a massive disappointment in his worst season (31 flipping games). Shane Victorino stole a career best 39 bags, but he also hit a career worst .255, produced 55 RBIs (his lowest total in five years), and scored just 72 times, his fewest times crossing the plate since 2006. Brett Gardner was a total flop appearing in just 16 games because of about 16 setbacks with his elbow. After averaging 48 steals the past two years and getting just two this year, it’s not surprising to see my team come in with seven out of a possible 12 points in the steals category.

Mark Reynolds, a top-5 third baseman in homers, RBIs and runs from 2009-11, had his worst season ever with only a massive finishing kick giving him non-puking numbers (.221-23-69-65). I still spit up a little in my mouth.

James Shields joined Justin Verlander as the only two pitchers in baseball with at least 15 victories and 220 Ks each of the past two years.

Ricky Romero was the worst pitcher ever. Well, not quite, but you know what I mean. If you don’t, here is some context. Not only did he have a 1.67 WHIP over 181 innings, he posted the 10th worst ERA of the 21st century for a hurler who tossed 180 innings (his mark was 5.77, the worst the 6.65 mark of Jose Lima in 2000).

Brandon Morrow was the ace I predicted he would be with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Too bad he made only 21 starts because of injury.

Max Scherzer alternated brilliance and putrid outings frustrating his owners. In the end though no one was complaining about 16 victories, 231 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Chad Billingsley, Erik Bedard, Ricky Nolasco rounded out the rotation. Billingsley was having a nice bounce back season before an elbow injury shut him down at 149.2 innings after 4-straight years over 185 innings. Bedard was just awful after a solid start (7-14, 5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). Amazingly he was healthy but horrible. Nolasco teased again, and in the end the numbers were terrible (12-13, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).

Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Brett Myers, Matt Capps and Aroldis Chapman were my bullpen, and yes I led the league in saves with 142, a pretty kick ass number for a 12 team league. Don’t overlook the fact that Santos had only two saves on the year either. If he too was healthy I could have parlayed one of these arms into more help for my starting staff.

CONGRATS: Drew Dinkmyer of Fantistics.

FINAL RESULT: 8/12. Not good. However, one more run, two more wins and 14 more Ks would have landed me in a tie for 6th place. Amazing how close it always is after such a long season.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Jay Bruce is at it again. He’s mashing. Over the past three weeks he’s hit .352 with eight homers, 19 RBIs and 16 runs scored. The recent rush has pushed his season marks to .265-32-93-80-7. Last season he produced a fantasy line of .256-32-97-84-8. It might look like nothing has changed but remember that he’s had 110 fewer at-bats this season.

Speaking of the Reds, Chris Heisey is hitting .469 over his last 32 at-bats for the club from Cincy. That’s 15 hits in 32 at-bats folks. He’s been a huge boost in NL-only leagues (check out his ownership rate over at Fleaflicker).

Josh Johnson has looked much better in the second half as he has a 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB ratio over his last 11 starts. That’s more like it big fella.

Jed Lowrie hit 14 homers with a .799 OPS in 80 games this season. He’s joined Double-A Corpus Christi. Consider me nonplussed. The guy is a walking injury and his performance is always up and down, up and down. I’ve never been a huge fan despite the obvious skills.

Joe Nathan has been nails the past three weeks. In that time he has struck out 11 batters, without issuing a single free pass, as he’s picked up seven saves in eight outings. Actually, Nathan has been killing it all year long. Not only does he have a 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but he’s also struck out 10.76 batters per nine innings this season while striking out 8.13 batters for every walk. Oh yeah, he’s also 30 for 31 in converting save chances. Obviously his arm is all the way back.

Chris Perez called out the Indians for being cheap. “They (the Tigers) are spending money. He (Mike Ilitch the Tigers owner) wants to win. Even when the economy was down (in Detroit), he spent money. He’s got a team to show for it. You get what you pay for in baseball. Sometimes you don’t. But most of the time you do.” Can’t disagree with the sentiment Mr. Perez, but it might be wise to put your house on the market because if I’m the owner of the Indians you’re on your way out this offseason since you clearly don’t want to be in Cleveland.

I know it’s hard to believe, but Kurt Suzuki has actually looked like a big league hitter since he joined the Nationals. He’s hit .266 with three homers, 13 RBIs an a .742 OPS over 22 games.

Mike Trout, and save the hate email people as I’m just pointing out a fact, is hitting .275 over his last 33 games. It would be advisable for you to spend a few moments reading Ron Shandler’s recent article on Trout as well.

Shane Victorino has not performed up to par with the Dodgers. He’s stolen eight bags in 32 games which is a fine pace of course, but he’s hitting just .254 with one homer and a .651 OPS in the blue and white. I’d expect him to perform better in the month of September.

Tom Wilhelmsen leads baseball with eight saves the past three weeks. Yet again we have proof that you don’t have to spend early draft picks or lost of cash on closers on draft day. On the year Tom has 24 saves in 27 opportunities for the Mariners. He’ also struck out 73 batters in 66.1 innings while posting solid ratios (2.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Evan Longoria vs. Derek Holland: .421-2-6 in 19 at-bats
Juan Pierre vs. Jeff Francis: .429 with 18 hits in 42 at-bats
David Ross vs. Jonathon Niese: .462-1-8 in only 13 at-bats

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: .472 in 53 at-bats
Adam Jones vs. CC Sabathia: .342-3-10 in 38 at-bats
A.J. Pierzynski vs. Bruce Chen: .424-2-4 in 33 at-bats

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Cubs: .179/.256/.192 in 78 at-bats. 1 RBI allowed.
Francisco Liriano vs. Royals: .239/.302/.316 in 117 at-bats
Luis Mendoza vs. White Sox: .230/.312/.388 in 152 at-bats

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bronson Arroyo vs. Astros: .180/.198/.270 in 100 at-bats.
Jeff Samardzija vs. Pirates: .149/.231/.234 in 47 at-bats
C.J. Wilson vs. Tigers: .240/.324/.323 in 96 at-bats. Zero HRs.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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CRUSADER LEAGUES
(New team each week all season)

GLADIATOR LEAGUES
(Eliminator Tournament)

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part II

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. For a breakdown of who is in the league and how everything shakes out, not to mention who I drafted in rounds 1-14 see K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I.

In what follows I’ll list my thoughts about my selections from pick 15-28. I’ll then give a quick run down of my squad.

Round 15: Dexter Fowler
He gained some muscle this offseason, and he flat out exploded in the second half of the season: .288 with a .880 OPS, 51 runs, 10 steals in 68 games.

Round 16: Wandy Rodriguez
This is a solid skill set hurler who gets no love because he’s on the Astros. As a 5th starter on my team he’s slotted in the right spot.

Round 17: Kurt Suzuki
I wanted to wait another go round for a backstop, I’d prefer to take a closer here, but I just didn’t have much faith in the remaining backstops.

Round 18: Frank Francisco
Great arm will be given an opportunity to close with Mets. Could have gone OF here, but I really needed to get that second closer arm.

Round 19: Brennan Boesch
It was Boesch, Joyce or Vernon Wells for my 5th outfielder. Couldn’t see any of them being around the next time I made a pick.

Round 20: Vernon Wells
Well color me surprised. Wells was indeed available after I considered taking him in the last round. He makes a solid UT option this late.

Round 21: Ryan Doumit
Of all the remaining backstops Doumit is the one I can see going .275-15-70 if he can stay healthy. Per 450 at-bats in his career: .271-15-61-54-2.

Round 22: Scott Baker
I’ve been staring at Baker for two rounds now. If healthy, there’s little reason to think he won’t be a top-50 hurler at worst, so this is good value this late.

Round 23: Rafael Furcal
I wanted to go with another starting pitcher here, but I looked at the remaining options for my backup at short and Furcal appeared to be well ahead of the remaining options.

Round 24: Ricky Nolasco
Once more into the breach… one of these years it’s going to happen. I’m convinced. I feel like Ahab from Moby Dick chasing my White Whale.

Round 25: Daniel Murphy
To get a guy who could hit .300 while qualifying at first, second and third… sign me up. Big fan of a reserve pick who covers so many positions.

Round 26: Chris Davis
It’s like when you walk into a car dealership intending to buy a sedan and walk out with a sports car. The lure of Davis and his power is too strong for me to break.

Round 27: Sergio Romo
(1) I could use solid ratios with a shot at a few saves. (2) With a short bench of only five guys I felt I needed a hurler over another bat.

Round 28: David Robertson
Went with this great bullpen arm instead of starters Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang, A.J. Burnett and Ryan Vogelsong, Obviously there will be plenty of arms left on the waiver-wire.

My Squad.

C: Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Doumit
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Kevin Youkilis
SS: Derek Jeter
MI: Dustin Ackley
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Dexter Fowler, Brennan Boesch
UT: Vernon Wells

Pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Ricky Romero, Josh Beckett, Brandon Morrow, Wandy Rodriguez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco

Bench: Rafael Furcal, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Sergio Romo, David Robertson

I’ve got a lot of flexibility with the club as Cabrera, Kendrick, Reynolds, Davis and Murphy are all going to be multi position guys. I could be a bit light on steals, but I should still finish middle of the pack there. I like the late add of Daniel Murphy to help offset a guy like Reynolds in the batting average category. On the hill, I think I again showed that you can wait on hurlers and still assemble a strong staff. My top-5 arms could all give me 175 Ks, and Baker/Nolasco could both be near elite if healthy and lucky (that obviously has not been the case the past few years though). I might be light on saves but with this draft happening so early in the year, before training camp even started, I didn’t feel the need to reach on bullpen arms when so many situations are still unsettled.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year on how the club is doing.

Finally, here is my roster, along with all the others from the K-BAD Draft.

By Ray Flowers

The Catcher’s Position

I say it every year – the catcher’s position is a field filled with landmines. There are certainly options that are elite when it comes to offensive output, but at the same time there is always an inherent risk with anyone who wears the tools of ignorance (Victor Martinez injured his knee – a torn ACL – knocking him out for the season. Was it the result of wear and tear? We may never know.). So what are my thoughts on how you should handle the catchers position, especially if you are in a league (as you should be) that has two starting backstops?

Consider the following.

Strike One.

Last year only one catcher appeared in 150 games – Carlos Santana (155).

Last year four catchers appeared in 140 games – Martinez, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and John Buck.

Last year six catchers appeared in 130 games – Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Olivo.

In total we have 11 catcher eligible players who appeared in 130 games, or, to put it another way, there were only 11 catchers who appeared in more than 80 percent of their teams games. How about this – there were only 11 catchers who missed as few as a month worth of games. Think about that for a moment. If you were in a 15 team league last year you had about a 50 percent chance that your starter  behind the dish missed a month worth of game action. That alone should cause you pause when you think about reaching early for a catcher. Hidden inside this digression about games played is the point I brought up at the start – that is the fact that injuries are a huge issue for a backstop. Do you really want to spend a high level pick on a player that is, in the best case scenario, going to miss 15 percent of his teams games? What if there was a fair amount of risk that even that number would be missed (i.e. another injury – think Mike Napoli who is still dealing with an ankle injury from last season)?

Strike Two.

How about this one – how many catchers stole 10 or more bases last year? The answer is zero. Moreover, only four eligible catchers even stole five bases (Russell Martin 8, Miguel Olivo 6, Chris Iannetta 6 and Santana 5). Strike two is a total lack of speed from the player who you will have fill the catcher’s position. There simply no juice at all from backstops in the steals category.

Strike Three.

How about we talk about batting average. Amongst catcher eligible players who had 400 plate appearances do you know how many hit .290? The answer is four – V-Mart (.330) Napoli (.320), Yadier Molina (.305) and Alex Avila (.295). That’s a pretty high batting mark, so let’s drop the qualification down to .275. How many catchers hit .275? The answer is just seven (add in A.J. Pierzynski .287, Carlos Ruiz .283 and Miguel Montero .282). If we drop that number down to .270 we only add two more guys (Yorvit Torrealba .273 and Brian McCann .270). So all told we’ve got nine, not nineteen but nine, catchers who had 400 plate appearances that also hit just .270. Clearly catcher isn’t the place to look for batting average help.

Strike Four.

Is there big time power at the catchers spot? The answer is not really (five catchers hit 20 homers in 2012: Mike Napoli 30, Carlos Santana 27, Brian McCann 24, J.P. Arencebia 23 and Matt Wieters 22). The reason, chiefly, is that they just don’t play enough games. There were nine other catchers who hit between 15 and 19 homers, but that makes my point for me doesn’t it? After a mere handful of guys, pretty much any catcher you will draft is going to hit you something like 15 homers. If the difference between the #6 guy at the position in homers and the #14 guys is just four homers, less than one a month, does it really matter who your catcher is? Further, there were also four more catchers who hit 14 homers (that brings the total to 18 backstops who went deep at least 14 times). The bottom line here is that there was a lot of parody at the catcher’s position, at least in terms of the power output they provide.

I know you have to take a catcher, and I know it matters who you end up with. There is no doubt that there is a significant difference between Mike Napoli and Kurt Suzuki, but my point is that I’m concerned enough about the potential injury situation to always be reluctant to spend big on a catcher. Further, with most catchers missing so much playing time, it just doesn’t make much sense to reach for a catcher. In addition, no catcher is a five category contributor which should further diminish the value of those players at the position. I’m not suggesting you wait until your stuck drafting the #19 and #23 catchers as your starters, but at the same time I’m also much more comfortable targeting catchers in the 8-15 range than I am reaching early, or waiting late, on getting my backstop duo.

Check out the link to Fleaflicker for their rankings on the catcher’s position.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Catchers

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.

Today, I’ll start with the catchers position.

2011 CATCHER Top-10
1 Joe Mauer
2 Victor Martinez
3 Brian McCann
4 Buster Posey
5 Geovany Soto
6 Carlos Santana
7 Mike Napoli
8 Matt Wieters
9 Miguel Montero
10 Kurt Suzuki

Mauer was injured from start to finish and he ended up with a .287 average, three homers and 30 RBI in 296 at-bats. It was a dismal season for a man who owns a career .323 average and a Hall of Fame bat.

V-Mart showed an astonishing lack of power with only 12 home runs, but he knocked in 103 runs while hitting .330 in what was a rather remarkable season.

McCann failed to hit .275 for the second straight year (he hit .270), and he also posted a 6-year low in RBI with 71. Still, he hit 24 homers and was the only catchers in the NL to hit more than 18 homers.

Posey‘s year ended after just 162 at-bats when he was plowed over at the plate trashing his leg. He is back to catching bullpens already and the Giants hope he will be at 100 percent by spring training next year.

Soto would have been my bust of the year if not for the failings of Mauer. Soto did hit 17 homers and knock in 54 runs, but he batted .228 while his OBP of .310 was .038 points below his career mark.

Santana was the best catcher in the AL not named Martinez. Santana, in his first full season in the bigs, was the only catcher in baseball with 20 homers, 70 RBI and 70 runs scores (27, 79 and 84). The 84 runs led the position.

Napoli was a superstar this season, and I wrote all about his efforts in Player Profile: Mike Napoli.

Wieters was one of three catcher eligible players to hit 20 homers with 65 RBI and 70 runs scored (he had 22, 68 and 72). Matt killed it in the second half hitting 14 homers with a .840 OPS in 61 games.

Montero was a rock all year for the D’backs. After hitting .294-16-59 in 2009, he was injured in 2010 and limited to 85 games. He bounced back this year with the best effort of his career (.282-18-86-65).

Suzuki was my #10 catcher because of one main reason – consistency. He did appear in 130 games for a fourth straight year, and his total of 14 homers was an exact match for his 2009-10 average, but his average fell to a career worst (.237) while he lost 37 RBI from 2010 (71) and 44 from 2009 (88).

Hit: Chris Iannetta #14
The Rockies have still never given him 350 at-bats in a season, but with 345 this year he blasted 14 homers, knocked in 55 runs and scored 51 times. Only 11 catchers in the game went 14-50-50, and only three went 14-50-50 with a .370 OBP (the others were Alex Avila and Napoli). He may have hit only .238, but he walked 70 times leading to that impressive .370 OBP.

Bust: Joe Mauer #1
What more needs to be said? He stunk.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low: All-Star Edition

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Which players, who have stunk so far, could be in line for a strong second half? It’s a question I get all the time. So I’m going to spend some time in my next few articles talking about which players you should BUY for the second half. Today, the infield.

CATCHER
Kurt Suzuki: .225-7-22-25-2 in 275 ABs

Two things here. First, Suzuki has been pretty bad, so he’ll be cheap to acquire. Second, the guy plays almost every day, so even if he isn’t that talented a hitter his counting stats figure to be solid because he rarely sits. A full time player for three years, Suzuki is currently on pace for four year lows in homers, RBI, runs, average, OBP and SLG. At the same time his BB/K is the same as always and he’s actually operating at the second best line drive rate of his career at 19.2 percent. History says his BABIP should rise, it’s .272 for his career and with a 19.2 percent line drive rate his mark shouldn’t be a sickly .235. When it does, that average should creep upwards providing even more value.

FIRST BASE
Carlos Lee: .268-7-48-35-3 in 339 ABs
Lee is a solid veteran type that you could target to acquire on the cheap since his current owner would probably deal him for relatively little. History says power is coming, he’s hit at least 24 homers each year since 2000, and every one of his 12 seasons he’s had at least 80 RBI. I wouldn’t expect him to go homer crazy in the second half, but he’s never finished a season with a HR/F mark below 9.5 percent so it would stand to reason that his 5.1 percent mark would improve moving forward.

SECOND BASE
Dan Uggla: .185-15-34-43-1 in 340 ABs
Obviously you want to add Uggla, right? Well not according to some people. I will freely admit that a guy who is hitting .185 with an OBP (.257) that would be a poor batting average is a disaster. At the same time, his power is finally starting to show, and that should remain a constant moving forward. Don’t overlook the fact that, despite being an  absolute dead weight to a club in the average and steals categories, that Uggla is fourth at the second base position in homers, has as many RBI as Ian Kinsler and has scored more runs than Michael Young (42).

THIRD BASE
Chone Figgins: .183-1-14-21-9 in 262 ABs
What a disaster this position has been. David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria, the top-4 at the position coming into the year, have all missed extensive time with injury. It just gets worse from there as well as seemingly every player at the position has something wrong with them. As such, there really isn’t much to mine at the third base spot since most leagues have all these guys already rostered, so coming up with a name that you could buy on the cheap to help out was pretty difficult. I went off the board and listed Figgins who is almost certain to be dealt. If he is, there’s still a chance that he could be a productive performer in the second half – he can’t possibly have fallen this far so quickly, and he’s likely on waivers in your mixed league so you can pick him up for nothing.

SHORTSTOP
Jason Bartlett: .238-1-21-32-18 in 323 at-bats

Bartlett has maintained some value by swiping bags, but overall his work has been awful. Despite a career norm in BB/K (0.51), and what would be the second best line drive rate of his career (23 percent), Bartlett is undershooting his career average by .038 points partly because his BABIP is .280, a mark that is .037 points below his career level. If he were to maintain his current rate, he’d also post a six year low in the category. He has no power, and won’t drive in any runs, but he certainly seems like a strong candidate to boost his average, substantially, in the second half.

ALL-STAR GAME

Oh, and by the latest count it appears that 83 players have been named to the All-Star teams. That’s more than 10 percent of the players in the league. What a joke.

 By Ray Flowers

Behind the Dish

photo © 2011 Adam Jackson | more info (via: Wylio)

Buster Posey was creamed last night at the plate in a collision with Scott Cousins. Was it a dirty play? I don’t believe so, but that’s a discussion for another day. The issue at this point is what do you do if you own Posey because a report from Amy Guttierrez says that Buster Posey is in a cast (the team has already placed him on the DL with a broken leg, and unconfirmed reports are circulating that he also has injured ligaments in his leg)? Whatever the truth turns out to be, it’s pretty clear that in a best case scenario Posey is going to be out for the foreseeable future – at best.

This situation will send all Posey owners scrambling to the waiver-wire. Of the options available, who might you consider picking up? Here are some thoughts.

Ryan Doumit – .272-4-15-7-0 in 92 ABs
Who doesn’t wish that the Pirates would play him more frequently, even if it isn’t behind the dish. I mean, it’s not like Lyle Overbay is tearing it up at first base is it? He isn’t for those of you wonder as he’s hitting .235 with a .662 OPS. Doumit has flashed his power bat in May hitting .289/.351/.477. The best thing for him could be a deal to a team that would play him everyday. Until then, at a weak hitting position, he still is someone you need to consider.

Ryan Hanigan – .261-2-12-12-0 in 92 ABs
He isn’t close to an everyday option, not with Ramon Hernandez around (.327-6-15), but it might surprise you to learn that Hernandez only has 12 more at-bats than Hanigan. Why would I suggest adding a guy who is hitting .261 with a .359 SLG? Because there is no downside here. Hanigan never strikes out, in his career he’s walked more times than he’s whiffed, and that means there is virtually no chance that his average will fall below where it is right now (career .276). You could do a lot worse as a second catcher in mixed leagues, but he would be stretched as a starter if you only use one backstop.

Jonathan Lucroy – .321-5-22-15-0 in 112 ABs
The name everyone is interested in, and why wouldn’t you be given his work to this point? Be warned though. Unless your name is Joe Mauer or Mike Piazza, catchers don’t hit over .320. Second, though he looks to have a huge a power bat, Lucroy has a 48 percent ground ball rate that will keep the big flies in check. The only reason he has five bombs already is due to an unsustainable 17 percent HR/F rate. He’s probably already snatched up unless you are in a shallow league, but if he isn’t, give him a look – there’s likely to be plenty of production from this bat.

Miguel Olivo – .229-4-15-20-4 in 144 ABs
He’s not hitting very well, but what’s new if you are a Seattle Mariner? However, three things of note. (1) He  has four steals, a huge boost at a position where guys don’t run. (2) He plays everyday. His total of 144 at-bats is 10th at the position (3) Each of the last five years he has hit at least 12 homers with 41 RBI. Those seem like mild totals but only he and Brian McCann can say that they have reached both totals each of the last five years.

Mike Napoli – .185-6-16-15-1 in 92 ABs
I blame this one on the Rangers. When Napoli was hot to start the year the Rangers just kept sitting him on the bench. Despite their thoughts, what I see is the seeds of success. Napoli currently has the best walk rate of his career, the lowest strikeout rate of his career, and his 18.2 HR/F ratio is a dead on match for his 18.1 percent career mark. One this hits start falling, his BABIP is .172, only .114 points below his career mark, he’ll return to being a power hitting star at the position… that is if the Rangers ever play him.

Wilson Ramos – .255-3-11-18-0 in 110 ABs
As great as he was in April (.358) he has been as bad in May (.158). He has value, but it may only be in certain spots right now. Consider these two points. (1) You only want to play him at home where he has hit .349 with a .990 OPS (his marks on the road are .194 and .605). (2) He has killed lefties (.323/.462/.484) while struggling badly against righties (.228/.284/.392).

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – .240-4-15-11-0 in 100 ABs
Salty, and no, I’m not going to type out his name again, has been a blasting of late with four bombs and seven RBI in his last five games. Long thought of as a guy who could hit .250 with 20 homers, is he finally reaching his potential after years of false starts?

Kurt Suzuki – .252-4-13-17-1 in 155 ABs
I cant understand how, after three solid years, that this guy is on so many waiver-wires. He’s currently working on his best BB/K mark of 0.82 (career 0.61), and though his has a superb 22.5 percent line drive rate he has only been rewarded with a .261 BABIP that isn’t even the equal of his career rate of .276. I see lots of room for improvement here.

My rest of the way rankings of these catchers:

Mike Napoli
Kurt Suzuki
Jonathan Lucroy
Miguel Olivo
Ryan Doumit
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Wilson Ramos
Ryan Hanigan

By Ray Flowers

Top-10 C for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll explain my rankings for the Top-10 Catchers for 2011.

For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?

Top-10 RPs for 2011.

Top-20 OFs for 2011.

Top-10 SS for 2011.

Top-10 3B for 2011.

Top-10 2B for 2011.

Top-10 1B for 2011.

My Top-10

Joe Mauer – The best hitting catcher in the game, period. Mauer hit .327 with 75 RBI and 88 runs scored, not to mention a .402 OBP, in 2010. Not worth the top-15 overall selection he was taken as last season, Mauer hit just nine homers, and if we remove his anomalous 28 homers season of 2009 we find that Mauer has averaged 9.4 homers in his other five seasons (I’m not counting his six homer effort in 107 at-bats in his first season).

Victor Martinez – The last six seasons that he has accrued at least 450 at-bats he has never failed to hit at least 16 homers or to produce at least 79 RBI. Toss in that he owns a career .300 batting average and you have yourself the second best fantasy catcher in baseball.

Brian McCann – Since 2006 McCann has hit at least 18 homers with 77 RBI each season. Moreover, since 2006, McCann leads the position in homers (107), extra base hits (283) and RBI (443). A rock solid option.

Buster Posey – If you watched the Giants all year, you’re sold on Posey. If you paid close attention in the playoffs, you should be sold as well. I worried about Posey’s ability to go deep heading into the year, but 18 homers in 406 at-bats would seem to waylay that fear. The young man can hit, and it’s not a stretch to think that he could match the production of V-Mart or McCann in 2011.

Geovany Soto – The Cubs’ catcher rebounded from a down 2009 to produce some solid totals. He nearly doubled Mauer with 17 homers, knocked in 53 runs, and hit a solid .280. Soto also was third at the position in OBP (.393) while he actually led catchers with a .890 OPS (Mauer was second at .871).

Carlos Santana – His season ended when he needed knee surgery, but he should be 100 percent by opening day. If he maintained his pace from last season and had 450 at-bats in 2011 he would hit .260 with 18 homers, 66 RBI and 69 runs scored. Given that his OBP was .401 last year, you have to think that his batting average could easily climb.

Kurt Suzuki – He didn’t match his breakout 2009 effort (.274-15-88-74) hitting .242-13-71-55, but he played more than 130-games for a third straight year and was still pretty darn effective for a catcher. He’s not an elite option, but he should still, easily, be a top-10 selection.

Matt Wieters – From the penthouse to the outhouse. After hitting .288 with nine homers in 354 at-bats as a rookie, Wieters slumped to .249 with 11 homers in 446 at-bats leading everyone to bail from the bandwagon as quick as they can. I’m not – I’m holding on for dear life. Wieters walked more frequently in year two while striking out less boosting his BB/K from 0.33 to 0.50. I like that. I also think his 15.4 line drive rate should improve in 2011, and with it his .287 BABIP, allowing that average to climb as well. Buy low on this guy.

Miguel Montero – Montero was a fantasy star in 2009 (.294-16-59-61) who failed to match his production in 2010 (.266-9-43-36). However, he had to come back from knee surgery and received 128 fewer at-bats, so his production actually wasn’t substantially different. At the same time he has only one season with more than 300 at-bats, one season of an average of .270 and just one season with more than 36 runs scored. I’d like to see another strong effort from him in 2011, but he is clearly still a top-10 option.

Mike Napoli – I’d rank him higher if I knew he would get the at-bats that he deserved. However, I just feel like that won’t ever happen unless he leaves the Angels. Napoli owns a strong .831 OPS in his career, and he has gone deep at least 20-times each of the past three years despite averaging a mere 353 at-bats a season. He may only have a .251 career average, but he has hit in the .270′s two of the past three years.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April30, 2010

(1) A lot of star level players are returning this weekend: Ian Kinsler, Brad Lidge and Cliff Lee. Oh, and Ryan Madson is on DL with broken toe from kicking something.

(2) A’s get bad news with Justin Duchscherer and Kurt Suzuki.

(3) Jacoby Ellsbury takes swings off tee.

(4) Lance Berkman tweaks groin.

(5) Justin Morneau returns from back injury.

(6) Chris Getz returns for Royals forcing Alex Gordon to bench.

By Ray Flowers