Draft Day Challenge, May 2

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. A.J. Pierzynski

Wieters is always a strong option. He’s only faced Blanton three times but he has two hits. He’s also driven in five runs in his last four games.

I gotta be honest. It’s really hard to find a viable option at catcher Thursday based on matchups. Pierzynski is only 5-for-14 in his career, and he’s been hurt of late, but it’s against his former team so maybe he summons something special.

FIRST BASE
1. Mitch Moreland
2. Edwin Encarnacion

Mr. Moreland is batting .429 the past week with nine hits, including four doubles, in 21 at-bats. He faces Mr. Peavy, and their history only includes six at-bats. Moreland has stroked a hit three times, twice going deep, on his way to five RBIs.

Encarnacion has blasted five homers, driven in eight runs and has scored seven times the past seven days. He’s only 1-for-11 against Ryan Dempster.

SECOND BASE
1. Dustin Pedroia
2. Omar Infante

Pedroia is hitting .435 the past week. He’s hitting .330 on the year. He’s hit .309 in his career against lefties. He faces lefty J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays.

The Tigers face Jordan Lyles in his first appearances of the 2013 season (he owns a 5.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 235.1 big league innings). Infante is batting .381 with two homers and seven runs scored over his last 23 plate appearances.

THIRD BASE
1. Chase Headley
2.Manny Machado

Headley went deep Wednesday and he could keep the good times a rollin’ Thursday against Travis Wood a hurler he has beaten for six hits, including two big flies, in 12 at-bats.

Machado faces Mr. Blanton. Machado also has scored seven times the past week while batting, get this, .406 with an OPS of 1.112. He’s hot, hot, hot.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Yuniesky Betancourt

Andrus has had a disappointing start to the year. But things are slowly improving. He’s hitting .292 the past week and he faces Peavy whom he has four hits against in 12 at-bats.

Betancourt has four homers and seven RBIs in the past week. It’s a mirage. Maybe he can keep it going for another day against J. Westbrook whom he has gone 8-for-22 against in his career (.364).

OUTFIELD
1. Nick Markakis
2. B.J. Upton

Markakis faces the very hittable Joe Blanton Thursday, a righty whom he has rapped six hits against in 12 at-bats (he also driven in four runs).

It all starts today. Upton remembers he’s an elite talent. He faces homer prone Dan Haren who has, shockingly, given up homers to Upton. In 31 at-bats Upton is hitting .323, but it’s the five homers that really stick out.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Kyle Kendrick
2. Travis Wood
3. Ervin Santana
4. Jake Westbrook

Kendrick is the type of pitcher I avoid in roto leagues, he’s got soft skills, but if you’re looking at a one day matchup it’s not always so clear cut. Over his last four starts he is undefeated with a 1.29 ERA an a WHIP under 1.00. Now he faces the Marlins. He’s also 8-0 with a 2.15 ERA against the Marlins since 2010. Nuff said.

Wood has lasted at least six innings in all five of his starts and never allowed more than two earned runs. The Padres are not an offensive juggernaut by any means either.

Santana is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP the past three weeks. He plays in an early game, so hopefully you get this news on the quick. He faces a Rays club that is 10th in the AL in runs, is batting .244 with a .311 OBP, and one that has had long stretches of ineffectiveness.

I wrote earlier this week to sell Jake Westbrook in Surgers and Slumpers, so why am I suggesting you start him Thursday? Remember, we’re talking one start here, not 25. Westbrook does have an ERA under 1.00, and he faces Wily Peralta of the Brewers who hasn’t exactly been lights out. Westbrook also has a 3.06 ERA in his eight career starts against the Brew Crew.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to the site.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 11, 2012

(1) Aroldis Chapman dealing with shoulder fatigue.

(2) Lance Berkman’s season over, career too?

(3) Kyle Kendrick pitching like a star.

(4) Gio Gonzalez excellent in first season in Washington.

(5) Brandon Moss to make history?

(6) Cameron Maybin, Logan Forsythe hot for Padres.

(7) Wandy Rodriguez finally back on track.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 21: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Brett Anderson (+171K up to $392,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
The A’s lefty has returned from Tommy John Surgery with flying colors mind you. In his first outing against the Twins he tossed one run ball over seven innings as he walked none and struck out six. A strong pitcher through 63 career starts, Anderson owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for his career. Are those numbers he could match this year? It’s certainly possible, but remember it’s not always a linear path to success for guys returning from Tommy J. Think of Adam Wainwright. His April was dreadful, a 7.32 ERA and 1.47 WHGIP over four starts before he rebounded (for the season Waino has a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 26 starts). Anderson is well worth the add in 15 team mixed leagues, but those in 10/12 team leagues would be wise not to count on him too heavily until 2013.

Chris Iannetta (+35, $88K)
Three of the last four years in Colorado Iannetta hit at least 14 homers with 55 RBIs (the year he didn’t reach those marks he had only 188 at-bats in an injury shortened 2010). There was hope that Iannetta would get to 350 at-bats for the first time in his career this season, maybe even well into the 400′s in his new home in Anaheim, but injuries conspired against him. To this point he’s had only 134 at-bats and that has caused him to become an afterthought in two catcher mixed leagues. However, it might be time to start paying attention again. Over 20 games in August Chris has hit .286 with three homers, a .361 OBP an a .821 OPS, levels that he could maintain the rest of the way (well, maybe not the batting average, but it shouldn’t dip much below the league average).

Kyle Kendrick (+101, $356K)
The definition of average, there’s nothing that stands out with Kendrick. His K/BB ratio of 6.41 is a batter below the league average and his 3.13 BB/9 is league average. He allows 0.99 homers per nine. League average yet again. His 1.15 GB/FB is league average. Ditto his ratios – a 4.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I wasn’t kidding when I said nothing stands out. So why mention him? Because it’s all working for him right now. Over his last three outings he has allowed a total of two runs while picking up three victories for the Phillies. He’s also walked a total of three batters while striking out 16. I’m not suggesting you completely buy into what is happening right now, it’s just not who Kyle is, but if you need a boost on the hill few that might be available are likely to be on a better roll (he’s owned in less than 10 percent of Fleaflicker leagues).

Angel Pagan (+30, $119K)
Pagan is 0-for-8 the lat two games but he’s still be flat out killing it of late. Over the previous eight games he produced 18 hits to push his average up from .280 to .290. In fact, he’s hit .301 over his last 40 games and .347 in August (25 contests). He’s not a power bat, he has only seven homers and 48 RBIs, but he plays every day, scores runs (69) and certainly has the speed to swipe a bag (21 on the year).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Joe Blanton (-149, $206K)
He should be much better than he is, at least in terms of the overall results. On the year he has a 7.76 K/9 mark, the best of his career, and his 1.57 BB/9 mark would tied his career best. As a result he has an elite 4.93 K/BB ratio that is virtually double his career 2.55 mark. The main issue has been the home run, something that often plagues him. Currently his HR/9 is a career worst 1.52, the third time it looks like he will have a mark of 1.38 or greater in the past four years (career 1.08). If he suddenly goes on a run of homerless ball to bring that number back to normal levels he just might be someone to turn to. As it is he’s looked awful with the Dodgers going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over four starts.

A.J. Burnett (-92, $359K)
He has 15 wins an only four loses with a 3.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year. That’s as good as anyone could have hoped for after his last two years in New York that led to an ERA of 5.20 and a WHIP of nearly 1.50. However, things have taken a downturn for A.J. recently. Over his last three started he’s given up four homers, he’s walked eight batters, and he’s allowed 14 earned runs to add nearly a half run to his ERA. It’s tough to turn away from Burnett, his total of 151.1 innings shouldn’t be wearing him down, but like James McDonald before him maybe we’re just seeing a natural correction.

Matt Joyce (-20, $55K)
Since he was beset my injuries Joyce has been a shell of his former self. Over his last 32 games he has hit just .216 with a mere three homers. His OBP in that time is .295 which is only palatable when one glances over to his SLG and sees a number that should be his OBP (.345). At this point, even if you’re in a 15 team mixed with five starting outfielders it’s nearly impossible to think that you don’t have a better option for a fifth outfielder.

Jason Kubel (-21, $57K)
I warned you to be careful almost exactly a month ago in my July 23rd Column.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent)”
His line drive rate has dipped to 22.8 percent.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent)”
His HR/F ratio is down to 19.5 percent.

“He’s striking out more than ever before.”
After never having a K-rate above 21.4 percent that mark has skyrocketed to 26.4 percent.

“…we know all good things must come to an end, right?”
Kubel has hit .160 with a .549 OPS in August.

He’s only two homers from tying his career best of 28, and with 14 RBIs he’ll have the second best total of his career (best is 103, second best 92), and his .267 batting average is only four points below his career average of .271. The regression was always likely to occur.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May16, 2012

(1) Why you should be looking to add Tim Lincecum.

(2) Why you should be looking to add Josh Johnson.

(3) Chris Young (shoulder) less than a week away from a return to action?

(4) Vance Worley to DL with elbow issues.

(5) Two hot catchers – A.J. Ellis and Jonathan Lucroy.

By Ray Flowers

What to Make of These Starters?

I was tempted to write about Brian Cushing and the whole PED issue as it pertains to football where drug use clearly isn’t taken seriously, but I have a date later tonight with a hot female friend and I didn’t want to get all worked up before it so I’ll save those comments for later in the week. Instead, I thought I would chronicle a handful of starting pitchers and give you my thoughts on whether or not they should be on your fantasy radar at the moment.

Bronson Arroyo has a 1.28 WHIP through seven starts, but that’s a dangerous number to pin your hopes on given his other numbers that include a 5.36 ERA and a 1.87 K/BB mark. In his two victories he has allowed three runs, and in his first start of the year he allowed one run to the Cardinals in eight innings, but he’s also had three outings in which he has allowed at least five earned runs making him a tough guy to roll with since you don’t know what you’re gonna get from start to start.

Luis Atilano is 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA through four starts for the Nationals. Don’t be swayed by the power of the darkside though as Atilano has clearly made the same deal with Mephistopheles that Livan Hernandez has worked out. Atilano has a 0.92 BB/K mark, and while more analysis is certainly needed before pronouncing sentence on someone, he clearly isn’t someone you should be counting on even in NL-only leagues.

Doug Davis is 1-4 for the Brewers through seven starts. The good is his fantastic 8.64 K/9 mark (that mark has been 7.04 or lower in each of the past four seasons). The bad is that he s still walking everyone – his BB/9 mark is 4.86. Considering that he is giving up hits at a rate of once every three at-bats, it’s no surprise that his WHIP sits at 1.98. Even when he’s doing something right such as striking people out, he still can’t be trusted in fantasy leagues.

Kyle Kendrick has but one victory in his seven starts on the year, hardly a surprise given a 5.89 ERA and 1.55 WHIP that have led to at least four earned runs in five of his seven outings. Kendrick’s K/9 rate of 3.93 is atrocious, though it’s right on his career mark (3.92), and the resulting K/BB mark of 1.14 scream out ‘I’m in big trouble.’ When you add in six homers for a HR/9 mark of 1.47 it’s clear that Kendrick is holding on by a thread.

Nate Robertson is 3-3 in his first seven starts in the NL for the Marlins. Like the other listed above him however, I’m clearly not high on his chances of being overly successful this season. Robertson’s K/9 rate of 5.80 is below his already poor 6.09 career mark, and just like last season when he walked everyone (5.07 BB/9), Robertson has walked an average of 4.54 batters per nine this season, well above his 3.28 career mark. You simply can’t have long-term success with the 1.28 K/BB mark that he currently possesses. A large portion of his success has been derived from a career low 15.5 percent line drive rate (career 18.9) and the fact that his HR/F ratio is 9.1 percent (career 12.6). Unless he throws a whole bunch more strikes, when those last two numbers correct themselves things could get ugly in Florida.

Reds’ starting pitchers allowed five hits the past two days to the sad sack Pirates. Homer Bailey allowed four hits in a complete game shutout on Wednesday while Johnny Cueto pitched a on hitter in his shutout on Tuesday. Both hurlers warrant consideration in mixed leagues, with Cueto clearly being the more intriguing play (he has 33 Ks in 42 innings and his 2.75 K/BB mark is solid). At the same time, don’t over value what either man has done the past two days – after all they were facing the Pirates.

Finally, what do I do when I’m not sitting here at the computer banging away reports and videos on the world of sports? Of course I run night time missions that need to be filmed by infrared cameras. Think I’m kidding? Give Jed Wars – Operation Flamingo a view.

By Ray Flowers