Things You Should Know

There’s an outfielder with the Red Sox who is a huge question mark heading into the 2013 major league season. A Cubs’ hurler is working back toward health. An ace from 2012 is having a hard time finding a job. The funniest major league baseball player on Twitter is trying to get his career back on track. Is the real Marlins’ slugger, you know that outfielder that changed his name, worth taking a shot on at the top of a draft? Finally, why can’t the guy who leads baseball in saves the past three years find a job?

Jacoby Ellsbury will hit leadoff for the Red Sox this season. Duh. It’s a huge season for Ellsbury personally, and for his fantasy outlook as well. I know that he had one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever in 2011 (.321-32-105-119-39) but consider these facts before going all in with Ellsbury. (1) In two of the last three years he’s failed to appear in 75 games. (2) He’s has one season of 10 homers. (3) He’s had one 10/10 season. (4) He’s hit under .275 in two of the last three years. (5) The last time he stole 40 bases was 2009. Tread carefully.

Matt Garza‘s lat strain sounds like it will end up being a minor issue. He’ll likely start throwing in a few days to make sure that he’s physically good to go as he works his way back from last years elbow issue. I believe he’s currently a sold draft day bargain given his suppressed cost (the NFBC has him listed as the 42nd starting pitcher off the board). Remember, this guy is as stable an option as any in the game. He owns a 3.84 career ERA. That mark has been between 3.32 and 3.95 each of the past six years. His WHIP is 1.29 for his career. The mark has been between 1.18 and 1.26 each of the past five years. It should also be noted that that last two seasons he’s produced the two best K/BB ratios of his career (3.13 and 3.00), and for the first time his K-rate has been over 8.30 in two consecutive years.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Kyle Lohse is still looking for a home. Turns out the draft pick compensation, a team could lose a first round draft pick if they sign Lohse, is causing a bunch of teams to be very wary of signing Lohse. I’d caution any team looking to sign him that they should also read his Player Profile to learn that the guy they are looking to buy might not actually be the guy they think they are getting.

Logan Morrison has started to run on a treadmill as he works his way back from knee surgery that he had in September. Hard to think that it’s been five months and he’s just starting to run is a good thing, but he did have his patella tendon repaired so it wasn’t a minor situation. The Marlins desperately need LoMo to help protect Giancarlo Stanton in what is shaping up to be a rather anemic lineup. Can LoMo fill that role even if he’s healthy? I have doubts. In 1,002 career at-bats, Morrison has gone deep just 36 times while batting .250, and that .339 OBP is nothing to get all worked up over either. The bottom line is that he’s failed to live up to expectations to this point, unless we’re talking about his work on Twitter which is flipping excellent. Will 2013 be the turnaround to what ails him? Speaking of Stanton…

Giancarlo Stanton was hit in the noggin’ by a pitch from phenom Jose Fernandez, but the good news is that he escaped serious injury – there is no concussion. The question that we should now all be asking is Stanton worthy of being a top-20 selection this year (he’s even been going in the first round on occasion). For his career, let’s give him a 550 at-bat season at his established levels, Stanton has produced a .270 average, 39 homers, 96 RBIs, 83 runs and seven steals. I know his potential is immense, but are those really first round numbers? Last season Josh Willingham hit .260 with 35 bombs, 110 RBIs, 85 runs scored and three steals. Have you heard anyone even talk about drafting Willingham in the top-100 overall this season? Just some food for thought.

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SO YOU WANT TO DRAFT A CLOSER?

Jose Valverde is still looking for a home, and it doesn’t sound like the Tigers are any more inclined to bring him back into the fold now than when they let him walk after his contract expired. This story may seem like nothing, especially since Valverde is no longer the pitcher he once was (his K/9 rate has literally gone down for 6-straight years and it was just 6.3 per nine last year), but there is this angel to consider.

Last season Valverde had 35 saves, tied with John Axford for 8th in baseball.

Over the last two years Valverde has 84 saves, the second most in baseball (Craig Kimbrel has 88).

Over the last three years Valverde has 110 saves, the most in baseball.

The guy with the most saves in baseball, the most, can’t find a job. Major league teams don’t even value the save. You shouldn’t overspend on draft day for closers… it’s such a fickle position.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Valentine’s Day Special

If you forgot to look at a calendar consider this your public service announcement for the day. It’s Valentine’s Day moron. Go out and get your special someone something special. It doesn’t have to be a diamond ring – though I’m sure those are welcomed – it just has to be something that shows you care. A box of candy (one that doesn’t look like you bought it at the convenient store on the corner would be nice). A stuffed teddy bear like the one above. Hell, if all of that isn’t happening make a card. Nothing says I care like a handmade card. Don’t worry if it looks like it was done by a seven year old. This is one time that it will seem adorable even if you have no artistic talent (for those of you who are interested in the holiday, the History Channel has a nice little section of videos discussing the day).

Before I go and get all soft on you all, and yes I have a special day about to be set in motion (my lady planned an evening for me that is a total surprise. Hopefully I haven’t jinxed it by mentioning it here in this piece), let’s get back to the world of baseball which is the real reason you came to BaseballGuys.com today, not to read my mushy thoughts on the holiday.

Grant Balfour will likely miss 4-6 weeks as he went under the knife on Thursday for a knee issue. The club hopes he will be able to return in time for Opening Day, but that’s obviously an open ended question at this point. Ryan Cook would seem most likely to take over given that he filled the role with aplomb last season in the first half. Some may have forgotten with Cook that he had 14 saves, 21 holds, a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.82 K/9 mark in 2012. That’s an elite line folks. Some will mention Sean Doolittle as a possible closing option, but the guy literally has less than 75 innings pitched in his career (he’s a converted hitter). He’s got a huge K arm, 11.41 per nine last year, and he walked only 2.09 per nine, but he’s just so inexperienced and really only has one solid pitch at the moment (he threw his fastball 87 percent of the time in ’12).

Trevor Cahill lost 10-15 lbs over the winter. Question. How does Cahill not know how much weight he lost? Did he never weigh himself before (I mean, can he see his toes now or what)? There’s obviously a benefit to getting in better shape. It should take some pressure of Cahill’s legs and give him a bit more oomph at the end of the season. Cahill pushed his K-rate to 7.02 per nine last year, a career best, and more than a batter above his career rate. If he holds on to those gains, and is able to maintain his out of this world 2.69 GB/FB ratio from last season, that ERA (3.78) and WHIP (1.29) could certainly come down.

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Rich Harden threw Wednesday and said that his surgically repaired shoulder felt pretty good. “I’m hoping it’ll feel the same when I start facing hitters. I threw mostly fastballs because I’m trying to get that feel back.” The Twins don’t know exactly yet if Harden would fit best in the bullpen or at the back-end of the rotation, but I would bet that if he’s healthy he’ll be able to get batters out. For his career Harden has struck out 949 batters in 928.1 innings.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Kyle Lohse is still looking for a team as clubs are still a bit unsure about whether giving him all that cash, and giving up a first round draft pick as compensation is worth it. For more on Lohse see his Player Profile.

Adam Wainwright had a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last season, solid numbers indeed but off the pace he set for himself before he had Tommy John surgery. I’m here to tell ya though, he pitched much better than it seemed. Take a look at his xFIP for a quick snapshot of how he performed: 3.32 in 2009, 3.02 in 2010, Tommy John surgery in 2011, 3.23 in 2012. His 8.34 K/9 mark is a five year best, and his 3.54 K/BB ratio was better than his 3.02 career mark. Toss in a career best 1.93 GB/FB ratio (career 1.57), and we have a guy who is primed for a huge season in 2013.

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kyle Lohse

Kyle Lohse knows how to pitch. That much should be obvious to anyone that has watched him toe the rubber the past few years. How has a hurler who was nothing more than a league average arm for 10 years, a full decade, suddenly become a borderline elite hurler?

A note before I start.

You remember the first time you saw either of Christopher Nolan’s classics Momento or Inception? Totally confused right? Stick with me for a second. It was only through a detailed reworking of the film in your mind, or watching the flick again, that you were able to get past having your mind blown so that you were able to return to the true greatness of the movies. With Lohse I’ve had my mind blown the past few years, and I’ve reviewed the data many, many times. Unlike Nolan’s work, which I can now comprehend/understand/appreciate, I’m still at a loss to explain exactly what is going on with Lohse. Here goes.

From 2001-10: .473 Win%, 4.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 5.63 K/9, 2.03 K/BB

Honestly, I was too kind at the start of this piece when I said that Lohse was a league average pitcher early in his career. The fact is, he wasn’t as a review of the above numbers shows. Let’s compare his work the first decade to the last two years.

2011-12: .732 Win%, 3.11 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.72 K/9, 3.18 K/BB

His winning percentage skyrocketed. His ERA improved dramatically. His K/9 rate remained unchanged. His K/BB rate spiked. Obviously we can tell that a lack of walks played a key role in his success, but other than that, what else? Before moving on a note about his walk rate. A career 2.58 per nine mark shows that Lohse has always been a solid strike thrower (isn’t everyone who grows up in the Twins organization?). Still, his ability to knock more than a half batter off his BB/9 rate the last two years, after being in the big leagues for a decade, is impressive. It just doesn’t happen very often, so kudos to him for that.

Lohse may do a good job at limiting the free passes, but he just doesn’t strike anyone out. He’s never been a league average arm in the K department, and given that his total of 143 Ks in 2012 was the first time he racked up more than 130 Ks in a season, you know that he will never be a help in this category in the fantasy game – and that certainly dings his value.

A few notes comparing 2012 to his career pace (remember when I said at the start that I’m still not quite sure what can explain his excellence the past two years).

2012: 40.5 percent ground ball rate, a 5-year low.
Career: 41.7 percent

2012: 35.6 fly ball rate
Career: 37.2 percent

2012: 1.14 GB/FB
Career: 1.12

Basically the same as always.

2012: 23.9 line drive rate, a career worst.
Career: 21.1 percent

Think about that. Lohse had his best season as a big leaguer despite a career norm in the GB/FB category and a career worst line drive rate. That makes no sense you say (hopefully you said that). How is that possible?

2012: .262 BABIP, a career best.
Career: .297

Somehow Lohse gave up more hard hit balls than every before, the same GB/FB as always, and yet he still managed to post a career best BABIP mark. Obviously no sense can be made of that.

2012: 77.2 percent left on base mark, a career best.
Career: 70.5 percent

Lohse was able to limit runners from scoring at a rate that he had never before seen. Moreover, his LOB percentage was above 67 percent only once the previous three seasons. Point blank, his 2012 was an outlier that isn’t likely to be repeated.

2012: 8.2 HR/F rate
Career: 9.5 percent

His ’12 mark was actually a 3-year high and well within the expected range for a pitcher with his career mark.

Given all of that, can you see why I’m confused? Lohse did one thing appreciably better in 2012 than normal, and that was his career best effort in limiting free passes. Other than that, not much in his pitching line screams out sub three ERA. In fact, there are a couple of measures that clearly point to him being quite fortunate in ’12 (just look at his xFIP of 3.96 and his SIERA of 4.06 – marks that are both more than a full run above his actual ERA of 2.86). The bottom line is that Lohse doesn’t have the skills to maintain a sub three ERA, nor is there a logical way to explain how he did it last season other than to say everything came together, which sometimes just happens (just like when you are out and you see that beautiful woman guffawing over that dork. For those of you unaware of that term it is a hearty, boisterous laugh).

I’m not trying to take away from Lohse what he has done, and given that he has performed very well over the past two season it would be unwise to merely push him aside as some lucky bum. At the same time I can only give a guy so much credit for “knowing how to pitch.” Ultimately the way we break down players allows us to get a clear picture about 90 percent of the time. Perhaps Lohse is in that 10 percent of players that defy traditional explanation, but given that my advice to you is this – avoid overspending on Lohse in 2013 and let someone else worry about it. I would avoid him altogether unless he falls in drafts. Given that someone will almost certainly be seduced by the power of the darkside and that 16-3 record and 2.86 ERA, chances are that will infrequently occur. Allow someone else to take a chance on a hurler who still seems more likely to be league average than to repeat his greatness of 2012 if you ask me.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday, and if you are interested in using that info to make a few bucks, DailyJoust can help you out.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Carlos Beltran vs. Roy Halladay: Beltran is second in the NL with 27 homers. He’s also gone deep twice in four games and four times in 10 contests. The matchup might look like a tough one on paper, but Beltran has had a lot of success against the veteran Phillies’ ace going .326-2-10 in 43 at-bats.

Adam Jones vs. Luke Hochevar: Jones has hit .343 over his last 35 at-bats and he’s always enjoyed success against Hochevar with eight hits in 20 at-bats (.400-1-6).

Kendrys Morales vs. Felix Hernandez: Morales is hot. He’s hit .3555 with three homers in eight August games and he’s also hit .333 with a bomb and eight RBIs in 26 at-bats against the King.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Clay Buchholz vs. Indians: CB has been on quite the role of late as he’s allowed a total of four earned runs in his last four outings. That run of success just might be enough for him to overcome the fact that he’s got a 5.06 ERA in eight starts on the road this year.

Kyle Lohse vs. Phillies: He has a tough matchup against Roy Halladay, but with the way Lohse is pitching does it even matter? Not only has he won his last six decisions but Kyle has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He’s also posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Phils.

Paul Maholm vs. Mets: Once more into the breach… Maholm continues to be just about as hot as any pitcher in the game (even if few seem to be buying it. See Fleaflicker). The last seven times he has started he’s gone at least 6.2 innings each time. He’s also allowed one or zero runs six times with his only hiccup being the three runs he allowed last time out. When a guy is rolling like this you don’t ask questions you just say ‘thank you, may I have another?’

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Jerry Hairston Jr.: He is 0-for-12 the past week. Still, he’s hit .318 on the road this season and he’s always enjoyed success against Nolasco (8-for-16 with five doubles).

Reed Johnson vs. Johan Santana: Johan will be making his first start since hitting the DL with an ankle issue, and he was awful in his last three starts allowing 19 runs in his last 12.2 innings. Given that Johnson has hit .516 against Johan, that’s 16-for-31 folks, how do you not play Reed?

Carlos Lee vs. Joe Blanton: Lee is hitting .3109 since the All-Star break. He’s also rapping out hits at a .364 clip over his last 33 at-bats. When he faces Blanton he’s got nine hits in 18 at-bats, good for a cool .500 average.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Dan Haren vs. Mariners: Do the Mariners even have a team anymore? Ichiro is gone, Smoak was demoted, Ackley can’t hit his weight. They are awful. Haren has predictably dominated the Mariners in his career with a 2.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 20 starts and he’s also allowed just four runs in his last three starts as his back woes seem to have finally abated.

Jeremy Hellickson vs. Twins: For the season Hellickson has a 3.43 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. For his career those numbers are 3.17 and 1.20. In eight games on the road this year he has a 3.21 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. In three starts against the Twins in his career those numbers are 3.98 and 1.03. Can you spell consistency?

Francisco Liriano vs. Athletics: OK, so his leg is a bit sore. Still, that’s not enough to dissuade me from suggesting that Liriano makes a solid start Saturday. Liriano has faced current Athletics for 121 at-bats, and they have produced 22 hits leading to a .182/.233/.256 line. That’s a .489 OPS folks. Lock and load.

CONTESTS

Daily Joust is obviously still running baseball leagues for those of you diehard fans (give yourself a pat on the back for hanging in there given the incessant pushing of the NFL). However, if you’re also looking to sink you teeth into the football season, while concurrently still making it happen in baseball, they’ve got you covered there too. To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

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HITTERS – FRIDAY

Michael Cuddyer vs. Cliff Lee: The two have faced each other 33 times with Cuddyer hitting .303 with three homers and eight RBIs. Marco Scutaro has also hit .321 in 28 at-bats against Lee.

Johnny Damon vs. Ricky Romero: If there was ever a lock to get a hit, or two, it’s Damon in this matchup (over at Fleaflicker Damon is barely owned). The duo has faced off 29 times and here’s the damage inflicted by Damon – a .522 avearge, four homers, eight RBIs a .633 OBP an a 1.807 OPS. Wowzah’s.

Jhonny Peralta vs. Jason Hammel: In 12 at-bats Peralta is hitting .417 with a homer and seven RBIs. Peralta also hit the break with four hits in his last two games while Hammel has a 6.20 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in six career games against the Tigers.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Tim Hudson vs. Mets: The Mets have 149 at-bats against Hudson, those currently on the roster that is, and they have gone deep just two times while hitting .235 with a .637 OPS. Seems like Hudson has a pretty good shot at holding the Metropolitans down.

Clayton Kershaw vs. Padres: Any time you see Kershaw on the hill you should be pumped. When that matchup has him taking on the Padres, you should be super pumped. When you notice that current Padres are hitting .213 with a .542 OPS, and not a single homer in 141 at-bats, it’s time to start doing cartwheels (though be careful not to injure yourself cause I know I would if I attempted that move).

Adam Wainwright vs. Reds: In his career current Reds batter are hitting .187 with a .555 OPS over 107 at-bats against Waino. Take out that one rough outing against the Pirates and Wainwright has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last three starts with at least seven Ks each outing.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Billy Butler vs. Jake Peavy: Maybe those Royals fans that felt slighted All-Star weekend will have something to cheer for in this matchup as Butler has hit .389 with a 1.365 OPS against Peavy in 18 career at-bats.

Torii Hunter vs. Freddy Garcia: The two have faced each other in 48 official at-bats with Hunter emerging with 19 hits leading to a .396 batting average. Hunter has also gone deep four times while knocking in eight runs.

Casey Kotchman vs. Aaron Laffey: OK, I take my Damon prediction. This might be the most bonkers matchup ever. E-V-E-R. In 10 at-bats Kotchman has nine hits against Laffey. That is all.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Gio Gonzalez vs. Marlins: Current Marlins batters have 36 at-bats against Gio. They have struck out 12 times and produced… one hit (Emilio Bonifacio). Coming off a first half that saw him post a 2.92 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention 118 Ks in 101.2 innings, Gio is a must start in this matchup.

Kyle Lohse vs. Reds: In the last matchup between these two foes Lohse worked seven scoreless innings. In each of his last four starts he has worked at least seven innings while allowing a total of seven runs. That’s sounding like a pretty good matchup to me.

Max Scherzer vs. Orioles: On the year Scherzer has a 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Terrible numbers for a guy with his arm. I try to focus more on the 121 Ks in 97.1 innings and the nearly four to one K/BB marks. I also like the fact that he’s allowed a total of six runs over his last four starts as he’s finally finding his rhythm on the hill.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Today I’ll not only do my normal Friday thing, giving you some advice on guys I’d be starting Friday and Saturday, but I’m also going to point you to a game in which you can turn $10 into $5000. How does that sound?

CONTEST  – KING FOR A DAY; Win $12,000

Here’s the deal. Every Friday starting today, through September 7th, 12 qualifiers will be given a shot to win $12,000 in the final contest on September 14th. Here’s how it works from the official webpage of the tournament.

Each weekly qualifier is a $10 entry multiple-entry tournament with the winner earning a seat in the Sept 14th $12,000 King’s Crown tournament. In the event of a tie for first place, normal Daily Joust tie-breaker rules apply. If a tie still persists, a playoff will occur to determine the winner.

That’s right. Be a weekly winner and you’ll get your shot to view for the $12,000 in prizes ($5,000 to the winner)… for the cost of $10.

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HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano vs. Josh Beckett: Cano hits everyone, and Beckett is no different as Cano has hit .324 with three homers and 13 RBI over 71 at-bats.

Matt Holliday vs. Ricky Nolasco: This matchup is golden for Holliday who is hitting .476 with two homers and six RBIs in 21 at-bats. Carlos Beltran also kills it with 13 hits in 38 at-bats (.342 average) against Nolasco.

Carlos Lee vs. Jake Westbrook: A new team for energy, and a great matchup for production. Lee is hitting .450 in 40 at-bats against the righty from STL.

Luke Scott vs. Justin Masterson: In a horrific slump that has him hitting .194 on the year, Scott is 7-for-16 (.438) with five RBIs off Masterson. Will this be the tonic he needs to turn things around?

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Hiroki Kuroda vs. Red Sox: In his lone outing against the Sox he allowed two runs in seven innings while racking up nine Ks. Over his last eight starts this season he’s dropped his ERA from 4.50 to 3.17, and over his last 34 innings he has an impressive 39 Ks. He’s rolling.

Justin Masterson vs. Rays: So Scott hits him, but no one has really hit Masterson of late. Over his last six starts he’s struck out 36 while walking nine leading to a 1.93 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Maybe he turns around those awful career numbers vs. the Rays (6.80 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 43.2 IP).

Travis Wood vs. Mets: In his lone start against the Mets back on June 25th Wood hurled seven shutout innings. Moreover, he’s won his last three starts while allowing a total of one earned run. Put that together and you have a nice streaming option.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Ryan Braun vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Maybe Wandy hopes he will get dealt to the Brew Crew so he won’t have to keep facing Braun. In 34 career at-bats Braun has hit .412 with four homers and seven RBIs. Rickie Weeks (.353), Aramis Ramirez (.349) and Corey Hart (.386) also kill Wandy.

Miguel Cabrera vs. Bruce Chen: Ten hits in 21 at-bats (.476) and three homers and seven RBIs say to start Cabrera in all leagues. Not like you wouldn’t anyway.

Kevin Youkilis vs. Ricky Romero: The Blue Jays’ lefty has been awful of late whereas Youkilis is finally starting to hit. In 23 career matchups Youkilis is hitting .348 with three bombs leading to a 1.336 OPS.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Rays: In one game against Tampa he tossed 6.2 innings of one run ball. However, it’s his work of late that is so exciting. In his last six starts he has 36 Ks in 40 innings leading to a 2.93 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. It’s pretty much been vintage Ubaldo.

Kyle Lohse vs. Marlins: The last time he took on the Marlins it was 7.1 innings of two run ball. The last three times he has taken the hill against anyone, including that game against the Marlins, it’s been at least seven innings with two or fewer earned runs allowed. Since the start of June, Lohse is 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (over at Fleaflicker people have started to notice his rise).

Jarrod Parker vs. Mariners: In his last start against the club from Seattle it was seven innings of one run ball. In his last four starts overall he has allowed three earned runs. Face it, it may not always be pretty, but the rookie is flat out getting it done every time he takes the hill.

By Ray Flowers  

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed. Third, at the bottom of this piece is a chance to partake in a FREE daily fantasy baseball game with a chance to play for $250 in prizes. Psst. I’m in the league too. Think you can best The Oracle?

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Clayton Kershaw:  Up to 22 homers and 50 RBIs, Dunn has had a great bounce back season. However, why on earth would I suggest playing a guy who has hit .183 against lefties this season when that same player has hit .223 against port siders in his career? It’s only a handful of games mind you, but Dunn has annihilated Kershaw in 11 at-bats going deep three times, driving in seven runs and batting .636. That’s why.

Scott Podsednik vs. Ryan Dempster: Three times in his last four games Pods has produced two or more hits, and in 51 at-bats with the Red Sox this year he has hit .373 with four steals. Facing Dempster he’s also been a producer with seven hits in 18 at-bats (.389) and he’s also walked four times leading to a .500 OBP.

Ben Revere vs. Yovani Gallardo: The speedster with the Twins has a hit in nine of 10 games to raise his average up to .339 (he’s had two or more hits in six of those games). He’s also swiped six bags while scoring nine runs in those 10 outings. Give him a matchup with a pitcher that he’s produced four hits in 10 at-bats against and he would seem to be a borderline must start.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ryan Dempster vs. Red Sox: Dempster has allowed one or zero runs in three of his last four outings. He’s also tossed 15 scoreless innings in his last two outings while walking a single batter to lower his ratios to Maddux-like levels (2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). Current Sox batters are hitting only .246 against Dempster as well, so are you willing to take a shot on the righty in this matchup?

Kyle Lohse vs. Royals: Current Royals hitters have only 50 at-bats off Lohse, but to say they have lacked success would be a massive understatement. The club has hit .240 against him with a .615 OPS as they have failed to go deep, have drawn only one walk, and struck out seven times.

Ryan Vogelsong vs. Mariners: In 30 outings last season Vogelsong had a 2.71 ERA. In 11 starts this year that number is 2.26. Over his last eight starts six times he’s permitted one/zero earned runs, and the two times he didn’t he allowed a total of five runs over 13.1 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Rajai Davis vs. Cliff Lee: Davis has stolen four bags in his last seven games, and though he has only 99 at-bats on the year he’s swiped 14 bases. He’s also hit a fair clip over his last 31 games batting .278. There isn’t much to go on with this matchup but in 11 at-bats Davis has produced six hits (.545 average).

Brandon Phillips vs. Jonathon Niese: Brandon Phillips has five hits in 10 at-bats against Niese, and two of those hits have been big flies. Phillips has also really kicked his game into gear in June hitting .353 with three homers and 13 RBI in 12 games.

Gaby Sanchez vs. James Shields: If you want about the most random call you could possibly find, look no further. Sanchez has produced six hits, including a homer, and five RBI in 13 at-bats against Shields, good for a .462 average. Of course Sanchez is hitting, if you can call it that, .190 on the year and has only two hits in 15 at-bats since he was recalled from the minors.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Chad Billingsley vs. White Sox: Chad has allowed two runs over 14 inning in his last two starts leading to two victories. Billingsley has also struck out eight batters in three of his last four outings. The question is – which Billingsley will show up? The guy who throws strikes or the one who nibbles and walks four or five batters and gets into trouble?

Tim Lincecum vs. Mainers: Once more into the breach… this might be it. I might have to change my thoughts on Lincecum if he doesn’t come through with a strong outing. (1) His rotation spot is in danger (the Giants might move him to the bullpen to work on things). (2) He’s basically returning home to pitch in Seattle. (3) The Mariners have the 4th worst batting average (.234) and the second worst OBP (.297) in baseball. This is it Timmy – make it happen.

James Shields vs. Marlins: I know I just mentioned how Sanchez hits Shields hard, but that’s not something the rest of the Marlins can say. If we remove Sanchez work the Marlins club has hit .217 with a mere seven RBIs over 129 at-bats.

CONTEST – TAKE ON RAY FLOWERS

Daily Joust is offering you a chance to make some free money, and you get to also take me on in the process (if you beat me you get another $5 bonus).

BaseballGuys has partnered with DailyJoust.com to give everyone an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season. There is a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday June 15th starting at 7pm EST.

That’s right, it’s FREE to enter, and you get a chance to play for $250 in prizes (there is also a 40% deposit bonus up to $400).

Choose your roster with the following positional requirements: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

1. To register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest click on the BBGuys Landing Page and sign up.

2.  Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition – and me.

Are you game?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your daily fantasy baseball lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Phillies vs. Kyle Lohse: Look at the numbers some of the Phillies’ batters have put up against Lohse, they are pretty staggering – Juan Pierre (.500), Ty Wigginton (.533), Brian Schneider (.308), Hunter Pence (.317) and Placido Polanco (.357). All of that doesn’t include Ryan Howard (.500) and Jim Thome (.400) who aren’t active. Moreover, the entire Phillies roster has hit .299 against Lohse.

Carlos Pena vs. Jon Lester: In two games as a leadoff man Pena is hitting .375 with a homer, three runs an a .545 OBP. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling Friday when he takes on Jon Lester, a pitcher that he has hit hard to the tune of five homers, 13 RBI an a 1.086 OPS in 37 at-bats.

Ichiro Suzuki vs. Ervin Santana: Hitting just .283 on the season, Ichiro is no longer the dominating force he once was. Still, the guy is no stranger to the base hit and given that he faces Santana, who he is hitting .350 against in 80 at-bats (big time sample size), you have to feel pretty good about his odds. Speaking of something having to do with odds, how about this oddity – Ichiro has tried to steal off Santana nine times and he’s never been successful.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Anthony Bass vs. Mets: The Metropolitans are hitting .259 with a mere 26 homers and  187 runs scored (the homer total is second lowest in the NL and they’ve scored three runs more than the Giants which should tell you how potent their offense isn’t). Bass has a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season which includes a total of four runs allowed in his last three starts.

Yovani Gallardo vs. D’backs: Gallardo is on a roll having gone 3-straight outings of six innings while allowing two or fewer runs. He’s also scaled back the long ball having allowed just one in eight starts.  Friday he faces a D’backs club that he has owned in his career going 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 32 Ks in 30 innings.

Tim Hudson vs Nationals: Since returning to the field all that Hudson has done is pitch like, Tim Hudson. In five starts he is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, an in four of his outings he’s allowed two or fewer runs. He faces a Washington club that used to be the Expos (remember that?) Friday. In 23 starts against the franchise he has been phenomenal going 14-3 with a 2.05 ERA an a 1.09 WHIP.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Melky Cabrera vs. Mark Buehrle: I admit it. I was apparently wrong about Melky Cabrera. Watching him on a daily basis, all the guy does is hit. Currently batting .362 on his way to leading baseball in hits (67) there is virtually no way he won’t go off Saturday. Cabrera is 17-for-27 against Buehrle for a .630 average. Flipping amazing.

Alex Rodriguez vs. Bartolo Colon: Flipping amazing #2. A-Rod is hitting .468 against Colon over 47 at-bats. He’s not rapping out singles either as his 22 hits have produced six doubles, a triple an eight homers leading to 17 RBI. The guy has a 1.149, not OPS but SLG mark, against Colon (his OPS is 1.630).

Luke Scott vs. Josh Beckett: Scott is having a strong power season with eight homers and 31 RBI, though his average is languishing down at .243. Perhaps seeing Beckett on the hill will help him to continue his productive efforts as he has 10 hits in 24 at-bats (.417) including three homers and seven RBI.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Minor vs. Nationals: This one is as much a hunch as anything else. Look, I know his ERA is 6.96 and his WHIP 1.45, but I’m telling you, the parts are far greater than the sum here. In 53 innings this season he has 48 Ks. In 15.2 innings against the Nats in his career he has 16 Ks, has issued just five walks, and has a 1.28 WHIP. Risky as all hell, but sooner or later he is going to have a gem.

Bud Norris vs. Dodgers: Over his last four starts Norris is 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while he’s racked up 29 Ks in 26 innings as perhaps the hottest pitcher in baseball (people might be a bit slow to wake up to that fact if we can judge by the numbers over at Fleaflicker). The Saturday matchup affords him a Dodgers club that he has faced five times leading to some dominating numbers as well (2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 28 Ks in 30.1 innings with a .183 BAA). Lock and load.

Jerome Williams vs. Mariners: It’s almost as simple as – if a guy is facing the Mariners you can have confidence starting him. Williams has had success in two starts against the Mariners with a 3.00 ERA and 0,73 WHIP over 15 innings, and there’s no reason to think he won’t keep the good times rolling with another solid effort.

CONTESTS

I just gave you some rather substantial advice on how you could have success this weekend, right? Sign up for the Beat Ray Promotion – it will be on the $50 freeroll this week. Go to the BaseballGuys/DailyJoust landing page, sign up for the $50 Free Roll, and have at it.

Fantasy Frown – Upside Down

How fun is fantasy baseball? Instead of bemoaning the struggles of certain players, why don’t we turn that frown upside down and see if there might be some players who have failed to live up to expectations to this point of the season that might be able to lend a boost to our fantasy squad moving forward. That’s a noble goal is it not? I’ll also talk about a former Cy Young winner who may have finally turned the corner, a reliever you’ve never probably heard of who leads baseball in wins, and a former fantasy superstar who is slowing improving physically in his attempt to come back from a mysterious knee injury.

Daniel Bard picked up his first win of the season Monday night, while pitching out of the bullpen, but he is still currently scheduled to make his start on Friday against the White Sox. The Red Sox though may have no other choice than to slot Bard in as their 9th inning arm (even though Bobby Valentine, the Red Sox manager, said that moving Bard back to the pen full time “doesn’t look like a great temptation.”). Bard has 13 Ks in 12.1 innings this season, but he’s also 1-2 with nine walks allowed an a 1.70 WHIP. Even if he had been successful as a starter, the Sox would still have to consider him for the 9th inning since they just can’t afford to give away games late. Alfredo Aceves, Vincente Padilla, Franklin Morales, Justin Thomas… boy do the Sox miss Andrew Bailey. If Bard is on waivers he’s worth adding in the hope that he’ll be asked to work the 9th greatly improving his fantasy value – even though the Red Sox are currently saying that isn’t going to happen.

Erik Bedard is 0-4 though he does have a 2.62 ERA after allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four starts. Wins may be tough to come by for the lefty in Pittsburgh, but I’ll continue to say it – when healthy he can be a mixed league option worthy of pretty much being an every game starter.

Chipper Jones didn’t start again on Monday. He continues to be a daily disaster, you never know when he’s going to be playing, but he also continues to be might successful when on the field. No only is he hitting .276 with two homers and eight RBI in nine games, but he has a .870 OPS. That’s a better number than guys like Miguel Cabrera (.857), Adrian Beltre (.826), Alex Rodriguez (.800) and Jose Bautista (.771).

Tim Lincecum was much better in his fourth start of the season Monday (5 IP, 1 ER, 8Ks, 5 BBs). I got a chance to watch nearly every pitch he tossed, an I liked what I saw. His pitches were darting all over the strike zone, but he wasn’t locked in as he missed the target on many of the pitches. Still, this was an improvement over the way that he opened up the season, so you have to be feeling pretty good if you didn’t panic and decided to hold on to him (or if you dealt to add him).

Kyle Lohse is up to 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA. I’m still not buying it. No way he continues to hold batters to a .170 batting average, and as impressive as his control was last year (2.01 BB per nine), the man isn’t going to continue to walk one batter every 13 innings. Now is the perfect time to sell high. If you don’t, just make sure you remember me when his performance tanks in relation to his current levels.

Vodka and Red Bull – nectar from the gods? Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm would agree.

Vulture wins anyone? Robbie Ross has worked five games covering 5.1 innings. All he’s done is rack up three wins. Do you even know what team he is on? Try the Rangers. This is just another example of why it is virtually impossible to predict wins in the fantasy game – Robbie Fricken’ Ross is tied for the major league lead with three victories.

Chase Utley (knee) did some things Monday, and that included fielding grounders. Though he is said to be feeling stronger and making progress, he also admitted that while BP cause him no discomfort that fielding those grounders was still bothering him. There is no timetable in this continually vexing situation that the Phillies have not been able to clarify in the least (apparently Utley doesn’t want his medical information shared, which is his right of course, but it sure plays havoc with what reasonable expectations should be this year). There’s been some discussion of Utley possibly playing some first base when he comes back, though Jim Thome and Ryan Howard obviously can’t play anywhere else on the diamond. I’ll bet that Utley’s bat still has some juice left in it, but it’s growing harder and harder to hold on to him in 12 team mixed leagues unless you have a DL spot.

Miguel Bautista started Game 1 of the Mets/Giants doubleheader Monday. You remember back in 2005 when, a year after going 10-13 with a 4.85 ERA, that the Blue Jays asked Bautista to close leading to 31 saves? Since then he has four saves — in six years.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 31, 2011

photo © 2008 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I give up on Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Morneau and trade them for Kyle Lohse and Justin Masterson?
– @westcoastredsox

We keep waiting for Ubaldo to turn things around, but the wait continues to be an excruciating process. Jimenez is 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA this season, and he’s currently walking 5.33 batters per nine innings, more than a batter worse than his already poor career mark. You simply cannot have success walking that many guys. We keep hearing that his body is healthy, that his issues stem from a mechanical issue, but a look at the radar gun doesn’t lie – his average fastball velocity is down more than three mph this season from where it was the last two years (96 down to 93 mph). Jimenez is still getting his strikeouts, his 7.99 mark per nine is a mere tenth below his career rate, but clearly something just isn’t right. The most distressing news though might be that this isn’t a recent issue, it goes back a long while. Over his last 24 starts Ubaldo has a 4.52 ERA, a 1.38 ERA, a ghastly 4-12 record, and a terrible 1.92 K/BB ratio. Those aren’t the numbers of an ace they are numbers that would normally find you residing on the waiver-wire.

The optimist will say that since May 9th Morneau has hit .289 and he’s finally ready to emerge from his concussion induced slumber. However, the realist in me just can’t accept that. Even though he’s hit nearly .300 the past three weeks, his OBP in that time is .318 and his SLG a sickly .386. Simply put, he isn’t getting on base, and when he does hit the ball the results make him look more like Erick Aybar than an all-star caliber player. Cut the guy all the slack you want, but Morneau is on pace to hit .242 with six homers, 54 RBI and 38 runs scored. I find it hard to suggest to people that he is even worthy of a roster spot in standard 12 team leagues.

Lohse has been a bone of contention for me. There is no disputing that he has been spectacular this year going 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA and a sparkling 0.92 WHIP. He’s also been amazingly consistent allowing more than two earned runs just once in his last 10 starts. Still, I have big time reservations. In more than a decade of work the guy owns a 4.66 ERA – more than double his current rate. I’m not talking about three months or two years, I’m talking more than 10 years of data (he’s never posted a season ERA better than 3.78, and it was his only year ever under 4.00). Lohse is also operating at a 6-year low in his K/9 rate (5.27), a fact that has only been offset by a career best 1.68 BB/9 mark (more than a batter below his 1.72 career rate). He’s also currently operating at one third of his career HR/9 mark of 1.10 at 0.34. Toss in three other salient factors. (1) His current BABIP is .230. He’s never had a mark better than .280 and owns a career rate of .302. (2) His current left on base percentage is 79.6 percent. His career rate is 70.1 percent. (3) He’s been under 120-innings pitched each of the last two years, and three times in the last five years he’s failed to reach 130-innings. I’m not saying it’s impossible that Lohse keeps this up, but it certainly seems like he is fighting against some extremely long odds.

Masterson has exceeded all expectations this season with a 3.07 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 11 starts. Though his K/9 rate is a career low at 6.26, he’s also cut his walk rate by more than half a batter from his career rate down to 3.19 per nine. He also continues to be the master of the ground ball with a 56 percent rate leading to a GB/FB ratio of better than two to one (2.05). A slight regression across the board seems likely, but there is little reason to panic that he will suddenly turn into Luke Hochevar.

If you need pitching depth you can make the deal since I’m just not sold that Morneau will return to his previous glory though know that you aren’t picking up two aces but merely two solid arms.

I need some offense. Should I drop Ted Lilly or Ryan Dempster for Mike Morse?
– @Sport_Fanatic

Lilly hasn’t been as good as expected this year for the Dodgers. At the same time, he has gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts, is sporting a 1.29 WHIP and has a strong 3.42 K/BB ratio. There is growing concern about his velocity, it is down for the 4th straight year, which has likely been the primary culprit for the drastic drop in his strikeout rate that has seen the number fall to 5.83 per nine this year (he’s been at 6.84 or better in each of his 12 seasons). He has induced more grounders this season that at any point since 2005 to help mitigate the loss of punchouts, but his fantasy value currently sits on the precipice of irrelevance in a 12 team league until his punchouts come back. The question is, will they?

Dempster allowed 14 runs in two late April starts, but since then he has been very good. In May Dempster has posted a 3-1 record, a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP an a 7.82 K/9 mark, totals that line up very well with Ryan’s performance from 2008-10: 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.20 K/9 mark. As expected, his early season home run woes seem to have stabilized as he has allowed just two homers in his last six outings. Add it all up an, despite a 6.00 ERA, Dempster’s xFIP says hie ERA should be 3.45, a mark that would better his ERA the past two years (it would also be a career best in the xFIP category).

Morse was everyone’s darling after a spring that saw him annihilate pitching to the tune of a .364-9-18 line in just 21 games. Morse then started off the season on fire. Wait, he actually started as if the fire was put out when the games started to count as he hit .224 with one homer in April. Flash forward a month and it has all changed. Morse finds himself in the daily lineup now that Adam LaRoche is out dealing with shoulder woes. Morse has responded to the playing time by hitting .386 with six homers in the month. The truth is that he has been even better of late with a .385 average and five of those homers over the past two weeks. Morse has hit .289 with 22 homers and 63 RBI over his last 394 at-bats, and there is little reason to think he won’t be able to reach those totals this season.

Given Lilly’s advancing age and declining fastball velocity, I’d drop the lefty to add Morse and his white hot bat.

Is Jake Peavy back to being an “ace”? I’m talking skill wise, not injury risk wise.
– @Dmitch4

First off, I don’t think you can remove the injury risk with Peavy. We’re talking about a pitcher who has failed to throw 110-innings the last two years, and one that is coming back from a shoulder procedure that no other pitcher in big league history ever has. Injuries have been, and will continue to be, a major issue for Peavy, there’s simply no way to remove that from the equation.

Second, despite the outwardly positive results (3.24 ERA, 0.88 WHIP), his overall effort simply doesn’t match his previous levels. The easiest way to see this is to simply check out his K/9 rate. The owner of an 8.88 career mark, Peavy was at 8.60 or better each year from 2004-09. Last season that mark dipped to 7.82, and so far this year it’s caved all the way to 5.76. The only reason no one has noticed is that Peavy has walked one guy in four starts. Obviously that isn’t going to continue. He’s also cut his career HR/9 mark by 2/3, and that isn’t going to continue, especially in a home park that is home run friendly.

So to sum it up, no, Peavy is not back to being an “ace.” He’s certainly worth taking a risk on because as we’ve seen when he’s healthy he can be exceedingly effective (hello Erik Bedard), but I just can’t trust him given his track record the past few years.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.