How is This Happening?

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I’ve only said it about 1,629 times, and I’ve continued to write about it recently in Bonds, Ruth and Bautista? Sometimes, things occur that defy explanation. I could sit here and spend the next 13 weeks writing a massive compendium of a work detailing how this doesn’t make sense, or how that can’t possibly continue. More times than not I’m going to be right, but of course no one is 100 percent correct, not me, not historical track records, or even the numbers themselves (hello Jose Bautista).

Still, I remain undaunted.

I’m going to hit on a handful of hurlers that I think are pretty much sure bets to regress as the season moves forward. Before I list the actual hurlers I’d suggest you familiarize yourself with my thought process as to why the soon to be mentioned hurlers will be unable to remain on their current paths to greatness.

The easiest way to understand where I’m coming from is to give Which Pitchers Should I Target? a read. In that piece I lay out the basics which, simply put, say to target pitchers with a K/9 rate of 6.50 and a BB/9 mark of 3.30 or lower. Of course pitchers can have success not hitting both of those levels (let me be clear there are always pitchers who succeed without hitting both those targets), especially those that are ground ball hurlers, but it’s a nice general rule to go by when assembling a fantasy rotation. In addition, keep in mind that starting pitchers only contribute in four of the five traditional categories, so even if the guy has a “good” season, if he only strikes out 120 batters he really doesn’t help your squad that much.

With that, here are a handful of pitchers who it would be wise to deal now if you are in a mixed league before their seasons go from great to merely average (some of the names listed should be obvious, but based on the questions I get every day, it doesn’t seem like everyone is in agreement).

Note: xFIP is a measure that normalizes home run rates and tells you what a pitchers actual ERA should be based upon the factors that are in his control.

Nick Blackburn: 3.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.87 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 3.85 xFIP
Blackburn normally throws strikes, but he simply doesn’t miss any bats. He has offset that issue by inducing a career best 53 percent of batted balls toward the infield grass (career 47 percent). However, he’s giving up more liners than he has the last three years and his walk rate is also a career worst. Get out quick.

Zack Britton: 2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.85 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 3.80 xFIP
Doing an even better job than Blackburn inducing grounders (56 percent), this rookie has been terrific. Still, there’s little other than his impressive ground ball rate to really like here. Given that fact, and that even in a best case scenario that the team could limit his innings late in the year, it would be wise to see if someone would give you starter #2 value for a guy who really is a #4 at best.

Jair Jurrjens: 1.56 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 5.15 K/9, 1.40 BB/9, 2.73 xFIP
You know he isn’t Greg Maddux so a regression is coming. The question is – how much? Here is what I see. He’s got the worst K-rate of his career, more than a full batter below his career mark. His walk rate is fantastic, but this is a guy who has for each of the past four years posted a mark of at least 3.14. Is he really going to cut that in half? His HR/9 rate is half of normal. His left on base percentage is 86 percent. For his career it’s 74.4. He does have a strong 1.59 GB/FB ratio, but that doesn’t make up for everything else.

Kyle Lohse: 2.06 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.96 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 3.61 xFIP
Unlike others on this list, Lohse has an extensive history of a decade of major league work. Beyond the obvious, things like never posting an ERA under 3.78 or a WHIP better than 1.27 in any season, are the following points. His K-rate is the 2nd worst of his 11 year career. He’s BB-rate is a full batter below his career mark. His HR/9 mark is literally a third of normal (0.36 compared to 1.11). His BABIP is .080 points below his career rate. His 80 percent LOB mark is 10 percentage points clear of his career rate. Oh, and his GB/FB ratio of 1.29 is only slightly better than his career 1.13 rate. You’re playing with fire if you continue to handle Lohse.

Charlie Morton: 2.61 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 4.21 BB/9, 3.89 xFIP
He looks like Roy Halladay with his revamped delivery and he has generated a rather amazing 62.5 percent ground ball rate leading to a stupendous 3.43 GB/FB ratio. I don’t think he can keep up that rate, but even if it falls to 2.43 he should be able to have real world success. Still, he’s just not a solid fantasy option in mixed leagues. He never strikes anyone out, walks more batters than the big league average, and though his line drive rate is the same as always, his BABIP is .262, a mere .047 points lower than normal. Oh, and don’t get me started on his 80 percent LOB mark which is only 15 percentage points better than his career rate.

Josh Tomlin: 2.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.53 K/9, 1.51 BB/9, 4.25 xFIP
Unlike others on this list who have had a lot of success because they have kept the ball on the ground, Tomlin has been nothing other than average in that category. In fact, he’s been worse than big league average with a 37 percent ground ball rate leading to a a terrible 0.89 GB/FB mark (the league average is usually about 1.10). So how has he had success? Sheer luck. He rarely misses a bat, and when the ball does hit the wood, he’s been about the luckiest cat on the planet. Though his line drive rate is nearly 22 percent, his BABIP is .175. You remember that the big league averages are 19-20 and .300 right? That means Tomlin is giving up more line drives than average but that he is somehow holding batters to a hit rate that is only 2/3 of normal. There is on way that trend will remain intact the rest of the season.

By Ray Flowers

Buy or Sell – NL Version

photo © 2008 David Ohmer | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m always getting questions about what to do with certain players who are over/under performing, so today I’ll break it down for you by discussing the National League players I’m asked about all the time (to see my AL list, click on Buy or Sell – AL Version).

* Buy/Sell designations are based on a mixed league with 12 teams.

Pedro Alvarez: I’m telling you, this guy will be a 30-100 man at some point of his career. You can bank on it. Every scout in the world will tell you that Pedro has an elite power bat. Now there are concerns about his ability to keep his weight under control, whether his glove is good enough for third base, and if he will ever make enough contact to be more than a .270-ish hitter, but the power is an elite tool – period. People expect so much out of youngsters anymore. I mean, this guy has 242 at-bats at Triple-A and just 455 in the majors. Are we really going to label a guy a failure based on 700 at-bats against elite level competition? Two things. (1) Ramirez has 17 homers and 71 RBI in 455 at-bats with the Pirates. (2) He’s always been a slow starter. Don’t forget that he hit six bombs with 27 RBI over his last 28 games last year so it remains wise to be patient here.
BUY

Chris Carpenter: The sky is clearly falling here. I mean the guy has been awful with one victory and a 4.32 ERA through eight starts. Oh how some numbers can deceive. Last year Carpenter posted a 3.22 ERA with a xFIP of 3.70. This year his ERA is more than a run higher, but guess what, his xFIP is lower at 3.63 (xFIP tells you what a pitchers ERA should be based upon the events that he can control). In each of Carpenter’s  eight seasons with at least 175.1 innings pitched his BABIP has never been higher than .309, and he owns a career mark of .297. That would seem to suggest that his current .327 mark is a bit driven by bad luck, especially since his K/9 and BB/9 marks are pretty much spot on his career levels. If you can buy low do it – the only real concern is if he can take the ball every five games.
BUY

Kyle Lohse: In seven starts this year Lohse has allowed more than one earned run just three times, and five of the seven outings its been two or fewer earned runs. Clearly he is as locked in as he could possibly be. You already know I’m going to say he can’t keep it up, right? (1) He hasn’t thrown 120 innings since 2008. (2) His current K/9 rate of 4.99 would be his worst mark since 2005. (3) He’s the owner of a 2.74 career BB/9 mark. Currently he’s at 1.72. (4) His career HR/9 mark is 1.12. He’s halved that so far at 0.52. (5) His career left on base percentage is 69.9 percent. Currently it’s 79.0 percent. I could go on and on but here’s the gist of it – Lohse is performing, across the board, at rates he has never been able to sustain. His 2.24 ERA and 0.86 WHIP simply aren’t sustainable with his K/9 rate, and his lack of anything other than an average GB/FB rate of 1.19. He could continue to do this, it’s possible, but his skills and history (a decade of work) suggest now is the perfect time to sell.
SELL

Aramis Ramirez: He’s hitting .925 with a .352 OBP, numbers that are slightly better than his career marks of .282 and .340. There’s no issue there. The concern is obviously with his lack of pop since he has only one homer. Will that lack of power continue? It sure seems unlikely to. At 33 years of age his power stroke should still be there. While he’s not Adam Dunn, Ramirez is a pretty established power bat in his own right. In eight of his nine seasons in which he has accrued 450 or more at-bats Ramirez has gone deep 25 or more times (he had 18 homers in 522 at-bats in 2002). Ramirez currently has a 42.5 percent fly ball rate. Each of the past five years that mark has been 44 percent or higher. In addition to the dip in fly balls, he just isn’t converting them into bombs right now with a sickly 2.1 percent HR/F ratio. That will not continue since each of the last eight years he has produced a mark of at least 11.6 percent. I’m not giving up on Ramirez, and neither should you.
BUY

Jose Tabata: Mired in a hideous slump that has seen him got 9-for-67, Tabata’s hot start to the year is a distant memory at this point. Here’s what I see. First, Tabata has doubled his walk rate from last season helping to push his BB/K mark up to 0.74, a solid number (the big league average is usually around 0.50). I also see that he’s continued to hit the ball on the ground almost identically matching his 59.4 percent mark from last year at 60.2 percent. Given his game, that’s ideal. However, the issue is that he simply hasn’t been able to produce hits given his line drive rate of 9.7 percent. There’s no way that mark stays that low this season, no way. Last year Tabata produced a 16.1 percent mark, still slightly below average (19-20 percent), but that’s alright because his wheels will allow him to turn more grounders into hits than most. This is an ideal time to add a player with 30 steal wheels who has a reasonable chance of matching his career batting average (.283) over the next four months.
BUY

By Ray Flowers