Did You Know?

I get heat all the time for putting pictures of beautiful women on my site (I even had a female follower tell me I should even things out and put a beefcake on the site. She’s obviously right, but there’s just no way I can bring myself to do it). Why do I it? Who doesn’t like to look at beautiful women? Am I right?

After that brief digression, and the shameless use of the feminine form to boost my readership, it’s time to hit on some players that are performing at levels that you may not have been aware of (hence the title of this piece).

Lance Berkman is 0-for-14 to drop his batting average to .282. In fact, the only month in which he has really impressed in the batting average category was April when he hit .388. Since then his monthly averages are .262, .221, .250 and .281. You shouldn’t be too surprised as the 35 year old Berkman hit .274 in 2009 and .248 in 2010.

Johnny Cueto leads baseball with a 2.05 ERA over 21 starts. This is shocking for numerous reasons, not the least of which being that Cueto came into the year with a 4.27 ERA over 531 innings (that mark of 4.27 was worse than the league average in that time of 4.17). Cueto is having this success despite a four year low in punchouts (6.22 per nine). Looks like all those extra grounders have been the key. In his first three seasons his ground ball rate was 39, 42 and 42 percent. This year that mark is about 25 percent up at 53.3 percent. Pretty amazing.

Ian Kinlser has 23 homers, 23 steals and 94 runs scored. With two more homers, two more steals and six more runs scored he’ll have produced just the sixth such season by a second sacker of the 21st first century of 25-25-100. It’s old hat for him. He did it back in 2009 when he hit 31 homers, stole 31 bases and scored 101 times.

James Loney is leading baseball, that’s not a typo I swear, with a .397 batting average the past 30 days (that’s .010 points clear of Derek Jeter). A monumental bust for nearly the durations of the season, Loney has come alive of late making it conceivable that he’ll reach his career norms in two categories you likely thought he had no chance of reaching. He’s hitting .277 and his career mark is .286. He also has nine homers leaving him a big month from hitting his average the past four years of 13.

Cliff Pennington (.272) is batting better than Kevin Youkilis (.266) this season. Speaking of Cliff, were you aware that he has been one of the most productive shortstops in baseball since the All-Star break? Pennington hsa hit .347, managed to plate 25 runs, and posted a .905 OPS over 41 games. I know, shocking ain’t it?

James Shields has 10 complete games this season, more than the total of the #2 and #3 men in the American League, combined. Felix Hernandez is second with five, and there is a list of six men who have recorded four complete games (Jered Weaver, Ricky Romero, Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, Derek Holland and Justin Verlander). All told that group has 39 complete games. That means those eight men are barely halfway to the all-time record of 75 complete games held by Will White way back in 1879. For the modern record, since 1900, the eight are still well behind Jack Chesbro’s mark of 48.

Chris Young, who coincidentally I picked up in a trade about when this slump started, is hitting .148 over the last 30 days, the worst mark in baseball. It’s not like we haven’t seen him struggle before as he hit .212 in 2009 and owns a .239 mark in his career. Still, he’s one homer and one steal away from a 20/20 season, and that would be the third time in five years he has hit that plateau so I’ll cut him some slack.

By Ray Flowers

Moustakas Gets the Call

photo © 2010 Jeff Powers | more info (via: Wylio)

Today I’ll touch on the call up of Mike Moustakas, the struggles of Trevor Cahill and Ichiro Suzuki, the continued dominance of Justin Verlander and the fact that there is an NL batter who is excelling right under everyone’s nose.

Back in March I warned people not to reach for Trevor Cahill in Which Pitchers Should I Target? I then ranked Cahill as my 50th best pitcher in my Top-100 Starting Pitchers piece. People sent me some nasty notes saying I was stupid and completely overlooking the great work Cahill did in 2010 (18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). It’s still early, but I see vindication on the horizon. Cahill has lost his last four decisions and he has looked atrocious over his last four starts – 7.25 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.07 K/BB ratio. On the year Cahill still owns a strong 3.18 ERA an a passable 1.32 WHIP, but I’ll continue to warn you that I’d be surprised if his ERA doesn’t end up being a run higher than it was last year.

Without looking, who is leading the NL in OPS? If you guessed Lance Berkman (1.080) you’d be right. Some of you may have gotten that one, but tell me, who is sixth in the NL? If you haven’t looked at the list the past couple of days there is no way you would know that it’s the Rockies… Todd Helton (.928). Helton was horrible last year with a .728 OPS in 398 at-bats, but it seems like everyone just wrote him off coming into the year because of his age (38 in August) and back woes despite the fact that he was pretty darn good two years ago (.904 OPS). If you grabbed him late in your mixed league, great job.

Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .252 on the year including an impossible to believe .132 in June and .189 since the start of May in what has been the worst slump of his life (I contracted his t-ball coach to confirm). Ichiro is 37 years old, but can a guy who has 10-straight years of hitting .300 with 200-hits suddenly just stop hitting? I think it’s doubtful. His walk rate is better than normal, and his K-rate would be his best mark since his 2001 season. He is hitting more balls than ever on the ground (62 percent this year versus 56 for his career), but given his skill set that is better than the alternative of him hitting the ball into the air. Ichiro has seen a gradual reduction in his line drive rate the past few years, but his 17.6 percent mark is slightly better than the 17.3 percent rate from last season, yet somehow his BABIP has dropped from .353 to .273. Given that his career BABIP mark is .354 and that he has never finished a year below .316, I believe that mark, and his average, will rebound. He wont hit .328 this year – his career mark – but I think .300 is still doable.

Justin Verlander is 5-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his last eight starts to improve his yearly totals to 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 93 Ks in 102.2 IP (8.15 K/9). Flat out, the guy is an ace.

ROYALS CALL UP SLUGGER

Mike Moustakas was called up by the Royals Thursday as they continue to switch gears midstream by calling up all their youthful talent. Here are my thoughts on the slugging third baseman.

The second player taken in the 2007 draft, Moustakas hit .322 with 36 homers and 124 RBI last year – in just 118 games mind you – to be named to just about every minor league all-star squad you can think of. He started out this season a bit slowly, but after hitting .356 over his last 10 games he upped his average to .287 in Triple-A with 10 homers and 44 RBI in 55 games. The young third baseman has power, plus power actually, and he should be able to flash that immediately with the Royals. For a slugger he also does a fairly good job at avoiding the whiffs, though that doesn’t mean he is ready to be a .300 hitter in the big leagues – he isn’t.

With third base being a minefield this season of injury and poor performance, Moustakas is a name you need to take immediate note of. In my recently released ROTW Rankings: Hitters piece, I listed Moustakas 19th at the position. Why so low? I honestly didn’t think he would be up for another month. At this point I have no problem moving him up to 15th on that list which means he is obviously an immediate add in 15 team leagues, and if you are in a 12 team league that uses corner infielders, he would also be a must add. Of course, this thumbs up shouldn’t be offered without my standard “be careful he is just a rookie with no big league experience” line. I’m predicting success here based on his skills and pedigree, but that is by no means a guarantee that he will live up to the hype in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 19, 2011

(1) Jake Peavy twirls masterpiece. Should you be buying?

(2) Colby Rasmus, Matt Holiday and Lance Berkman hurt.

(3) Fernando Salas the Cards’ closer? Not so fast.

(4) Adam LaRoche = abysmal. Is a turn around coming?

(5) Injured players update – Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 14, 2011

(1) Braves plan on leaving Jason Heyward down in the batting order.

(2) Is Alex Gordon for real?

(3) Should you be worried about the velocity drop of Aroldis Chapman?

(4) Reports of Lance Berkman’s demise were greatly overrated.

(5) Carlos Pena still has pain in his right thumb from April 4th injury.

(6) Chris Young dealing with biceps tendonitis. What a shock.

(7) Pablo Sandoval continues his early season surge.

By Ray Flowers

Biding My Time

I’m sitting here staring out the window. We’re all kind of in no-man’s land right now. Playoff football is ongoing, but fantasy football is basically over for most people (those playoff leagues just don’t do it for me). I’m one of the few people who actually plays fantasy hockey, and likewise there is a small but dedicated group that plays fantasy basketball, but we are in the minority. So where does that leave most fantasy sports addicts? It leaves you begging for the fantasy baseball season to begin. It’s about a month until pitchers and catchers report, and February is usually when the heavy lifting really starts with fantasy baseball, though to be honest, I’ve literally been writing about the 2011 fantasy baseball season since October. I know, I have a disease don’t I?

I’ll also be attending the FSTA Trade Association meeting in Las Vegas this weekend, so if you’re gonna be there let me know and we’ll grab a beer (or a fruity drink with an umbrella in it).

PLAYER RATINGS

Over at ESPN they have a whole section devoted to different player rating systems: Inside Edge, The Baseball Encyclopedia, ESPN Rating and Elias. Here are a few things that jumped out at me from those rankings.

Miguel Cabrera was the top player in 2010 according to two of the systems (ESPN and Elias). The man widely regarded as the best player in baseball – Albert Pujols – was second on the ESPN scale and came in at 6th in the Elias Rankings.

According to Inside Edge, the best player in baseball last year was Josh Johnson. I don’t know what the formula is for this measure, but when your top-5 includes Johnson, Cliff Lee and Paul Konerko, consider me dubious as to it’s value.

The top-3 performers according to the Baseball Encyclopedia were Troy Tulowitzki, Pujols and Robinson Cano. How could a guy who appeared in only 122 games last season be the best player in baseball?

You can check out the rankings for yourself at the link above, but here is their top-10 based on the average ranking of the four systems:

1- Albert Pujols
2- Miguel Cabrera
3- Roy Halladay
4- Joey Votto
5- Felix Hernandez
6- Jose Bautista (seriously)
7- Paul Konerko (gulp)
8- Ubaldo Jimenez
9- Adam Wainwright
10- Josh Hamilton

PLAYER PROFILE – LANCE BERKMAN

I wrote about the new Cardinals outfielder in Breaking Down: Lance Berkman. Here is a brief synopsis of what I said there.

“Currently sporting an ADP in the 300′s, it would seem that Berkman is in a good position to far surpass the value he is currently being assigned. It would be wise to avoid expecting a return to the salad days for Berkman, but if he slips far enough in drafts he is well worth taking a shot on as a mutli-position guy who will hit behind, arguably, the two best right-handed hitters in the National League.”

PAVANO STAYS WITH TWINS
After flirting with signing a big money, 1-year deal with the Yankees (how desperate are the Bronx Bombers when you realize they contemplated bringing back a guy who won nine games over four years with the club back in 2005-08?), Pavano decided he liked where he was signing a 2-year, $16.5 million deal to remain with the Twins. I predicted back on December 6th, 2010 that Pavano would hit it big as the second best starting pitcher on the market in Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010. I missed on that one. I’m surprised that in this market, where middle relievers were getting 3-year deals at more than $4 million a season, that Pavano was only able to lock down a two year deal.

JUST BECAUSE…

One of the greatest set of lines in movie history thanks to Ron Burgundy.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 8, 2010

Lance Berkman – Early reports had him playing left field with Matt Holliday shifting to right field. Looks like that isn’t going to be happening. This is good news for Matt Holiday who has never played right field. It’s bad news for Berkman and the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Berkman has been a first basemen the past few years, hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007, and really hasn’t been a full-time outfielder since 2004. He better hit, a lot, because he’ll likely be a butcher in the field.

Jack Cust – Signed a 1-year deal for $2.5 million to join the Mariners. This is an example of a good and bad signing. First, the good. Cust joins a club that needs offense as the Mariners were last in the majors in runs, homers, OBP and OPS. It’s also a completely reasonable contract. The bad? They already have Milton Bradley set to DH and he is set to make $12 million dollars this year. How awful does that contract with Bradley look? About as awful as it did when it was signed – he was never going to be able to live up to that 3-year, $30 million deal that ends after this season.

DH Types – Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome are all in the market for an AL team looking for a designated hitter. All three still have value, and all three could legitimately hit 25 homers in 2011. At the same time all three are aging, and it’s pretty clear at this point that none of the three really belongs in the field at all. Teams in need of a bat would be advised to apply here though as these three old timers can still slug it (here are their OPS marks from 2010: Guerrero .841, Manny .870 and Thome at 1.039).

Matt Diaz – Signed a two year deal to join the Pirates (it is rumored to be for about $4.25 million). Diaz crushed lefties, always has, and his career splits are pretty pronounced.

vs. lefties: .335/.373/.533, one HR per 25.3 ABs
vs. nighties: .269/.327/.382, one HR per 54.9 ABs

Remember that if you plan on drafting him this season.

As a result of the deal, the Pirates are considering moving Ryan Doumit. They already have Chris Snyder to catch, and the original plan was for Doumit to play the outfield most of the time. Doumit is also scheduled to make $5.1 this year with club options for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million). It seems odd to me that the Pirates would want to get rid of a guy who could serve as their backup catcher and potential platoon mate with Diaz to form a nice combo in the outfield. I know the Pirates aren’t going to pay the guy over $15 million for 2012-13, but why not keep him for now?

Jeff Francoeur – Here is where major league teams could learn something from us “stat geeks” in the fantasy game. Simply put, Francoeur does not have an approach at the plate that will allow him to have long-term success at the dish, and all you have to do is to look at his career numbers. Apparently no one in Kansas City can operate a spreadsheet though, so the Royals went out and gave Francoeur a $2.5 million deal for 2011 with a $3 million mutual option for 2012. So let me get this straight. The Giants got Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million, and the Royals gave that amount of money to Frenchie? Burrell had a “down” 2010, but he still produced a .348 OBP and a .469 SLG. Francoeur has never posted an OBP of better than .338, and he has never posted a SLG of .450 in a season of more than 275 plate appearances. Simply put, Francoeur stinks. Of course, we are talking about the Royals who have brought in similar hitters the past few years in guys like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. It’s no wonder this team never wins.

Doing it Right: The White Sox

The White Sox singed Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56 million deal to serve as their designated hitter. That move looked even better when they were able to secure the services of Paul Konerko on a three year, $37.5 million deal (Konerko helped out the club as well by taking $30.5 million the next three years with $1 million dollars a year from 2014-2020 in deferred payments). So for $26 million in 2011 the White Sox should get themselves about 80 homers, 200 RBI and 180 runs. Would you rather get that or 15 wins, 220 innings and Cliff Lee for the same price? Seems like an obvious call to me. Furthermore, think about this:

The White Sox, if you add up the contracts of Dunn and Konerko, gave two deals that amount to 7-years and $93.5 million. Would you rather have Dunn AND Konerko at that rate or Jayson Werth and his 7-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals? Uh, yeah. Great move Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010

(1) Adrian Gonzalez traded to Red Sox.

(2) Derek Jeter agrees to 3-year deal with Yankees.

(3) Mariano Rivera agrees to 2-year deal with Yankees.

(4) Lance Berkman signs with Cardinals.

(5) Cliff Lee will become insanely rich.

(6) Carl Pavano will hit it big as 2nd best SP on market.

(7) Jayson Werth gets seven years from Nationals.

(8) Adam Dunn signs with White Sox.

(9) Carl Crawford looking for $150 million plus over eight years.

(10) Mark Reynolds now an Oriole.

By Ray Flowers

December Hot Stove

Here is a look around baseball with some exceedingly witty commentary from yours truly.

Quick Hitters

Lance Berkman – The Athletics seem to have him in their sites. He met with the club earlier this week, and a 1-year deal, similar to the kind that Ben Sheets signed with the club last year, seems to be coming down the pipe (Lance wants something like $8 million a year). Don’t count out the Rockies though – there is mutual interest there, though there may not be enough dough.

Ian Desmond – Apparently the Nationals are considering moving Desmond to help add depth to their starting rotation. He led baseball with 34 errors at short, but his future is very bright as he was one run from being one of only 22 players to hit 10 homers, with 60 RBI, 60 runs and 15 steals in 2010 and that was in his first big league season. Why trade that?

Adam Dunn – He wanted 4-years and $60 million – he got 4-years, $56 million from the White Sox. I have no issue with those numbers, not in the least. Neither should anyone else. I know he can’t play defense, but since 2004 Dunn is second in baseball with 282 homers, ninth in RBI (709), 15th in runs (657), fourth in extra base hits (496) and he’s sporting a .914 OPS which is higher than Hanley Ramirez (.905), Chase Utley (.901) and David Wright (.899) in the same time frame.

Zack Greinke – If he ends up with the Yankees that will be the worst match since the Yankees brought in Javier Vazquez – twice. Greinke would crumble in New York and if I was a praying man I would speak to the man upstairs that this proposed deal doesn’t come to fruition.

Kevin Gregg – He declined the Blue Jays offer of arbitration which will lead to the Jays getting a supplemental draft pick. Gregg should earn a multi-year deal from someone. You may not be aware of it, but Gregg is one of only seven pitchers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the past four years, and his total of 121 saves in that time is 11th overall.

J.P. Howell – He’ll be unavailable to start the 2011 season after shoulder surgery in May (he says he could be back by mid-April), and he hasn’t thrown a big league pitch since 2009. While its premature to think his career might be in jeopardy, you have to be concerned for the lefties future. I wish him luck with is long road back to the bigs.

Jose Lopez – He’ll be non-tendered by the Mariners, hardly a shock given that he is coming off his worst season in five years (.239-10-58-49-3 in 593 at-bats). Given that he owns a career slash line of .266/.297/.400 one can’t think that, in this economic environment, that he will find anyone willing to back up the money truck.

Jamie Moyer – The 48 year old lefty had Tommy John surgery on Wednesday that will knock him out of the 2011 season. Still, he isn’t ready to give up on his dream of 300 career victories (he has 267 wins). Moyer says he will target a return to action in 2012. If you aren’t rooting for him you must be related to Ebenezer Scrooge.

Oliver Perez – Reports out of the Mexican Winter League are that Perez is consistently sitting at 88 mph, with his fastball, but that he has been able to get his heater up to 91-92. He’s also thrown 10-straight scoreless innings. Add that up and I’m 100 percent positive that he will more than justify the $12 million he is to be paid in 2011 (dripping sarcasm). Goodness gracious.

Mark Prior – The Rangers are said to have interest in the one time phenom. Reports are that Prior has gotten his fastball back into the 91-92 mph territory, and with that speed he could have success as an arm out of the pen. He will never reach the heights that were once predicted, but I’m certainly rooting for him. Amazingly, he is still just 30 years old.

Robinson Tejeda – This is just the type of guy that teams should take a shot on. Why are the Royals willing to deal the cannon armed Tejeda who had a 3.54 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 61 innings last season? Because they are the Royals of course. Dating back to July 25th of 2009 Tejeda has posted a 2.97 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 8.84 K/9 mark over 112 innings. Who couldn’t use that?

Brandon Webb – Every team in baseball seems to be in on the sinker balling righty. Someone will give him a heavily incentivized deal to pitch for them in 2011, but if you talk to scouts they will tell you that his performance late in 2010, as he continues his attempted comeback from a shoulder surgery, was poor at best. Don’t forget that he has tossed all of four innings the past two years.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 1, 2010

(1) Josh Hamilton out of lineup with knee injury.

(2) Alex Rodriguez likely to return on Sunday.

(3) Ray’s call up Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings.

(4) Ian Kinsler (groin), Lance Berkman (knee) back off DL.

(5) Yovani Gallardo says he is OK despite awful results.

(6) Jason Kendall needs shoulder surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 19, 2010

(1) David Wright back in the lineup for Mets.

(2) Ian Kinsler to get MRI on Monday.

(3) Dustin Pedroia out with sore foot.

(4) Lance Berkman to DL. Alex Rodriguez should be back soon for Yankees.

(5) Brad Hawpe released.

(6) Pedro Feliz to Cardinals.

(7) Ryan Howard (ankle) hopes to return on Monday.

(8) Roger Clemens likely to be indicted for lying to Congress.

By Ray Flowers