Around the Horn: May13, 2010

(1) Mat Latos pitches 1-hitter against the Giants.

(2) Bud Norris continues to dominate the Cardinals.

(3) Hunter Pence finally hitting for Astros.

(4) Brad Lidge’s elbow checks out OK.

(5) Orioles get more bad news in bullpen – Jim Johnson might need Tommy John surgery.

(6) Corey Patterson called up to replace Nolan Reimold.

(7) Jarrod Washburn to sit out 2010 season?

(8) Mark DeRosa’s wrist in bad shape – 2010 in jeopardy?

(9) Jarrod Saltalamacchia having big time throwing issues.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May6, 2010

(1) The Reds will not demote Drew Stubbs. You can also read My Tooth Hurts.

(2) Who is gonna lead off for the Marlins – Cameron Maybin, Chris Coghlan or Emilio Bonifacio?

(3) Jair Jurrjens to DL – replaced by Kris Medlen.

(4) Juan Uribe or Freddy Sanchez for Giants?

(5) Is Matt Garza a top-10 SP? You can also read Impact Report – Matt Garza.

(6) Lance Berkman will waive no-trade clause.

(7) Carlos Lee finally goes deep.

(8) What are the Orioles going to do in the 9th inning?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April20, 2010

(1) Edinson Volquez suspended 50 games for trying to start a family?

(2) Cliff Lee has suspension rescinded.

(3) Lance Berkman returns – Chris Johnson to DL.

(4) Russell Branyan back for Indians.

(5) Mike Gonzalez getting second opinion on shoulder.

(6) Mike Cameron to DL. Jacoby Ellsbury still dealing with side issue leaving Red Sox thin in outfield.

(7) Conor Jackson to DL, Gerardo Parra into lineup.

(8) Madison Bumgarner finds lost seven mph?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April16, 2010

(1) Who do you want on your fantasy staff – Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang?

(2) There are a ton of players who look like they could return this weekend: Carlos Gonzalez (hamstring), Mike Cameron (kidney stones), Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) and Chris Coghlan (ribs).

(3) Fred Lewis traded to Blue Jays.

(4) Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris performing pretty well for Astros.

(5) Carlos Beltran (knee) still not running.

(6) Ted Lilly (shoulder) nearing a return.

(7) Brandon Webb throwing, though off flat ground.

(8) Lance Berkman sent to minors to play this weekend, could be activated next week.

By Ray Flowers

Insights and Jed Wars

Today I’m going to pause long enough from my sniffles, yes, I seem to have picked up another case of the cooties, to give my thoughts on a few of the pertinent issues in the game. I’ll also post a link at the end to a video I made for one of the expert baseball leagues I’m in this season.

Things are so spotty with the health of Lance Berkman (knee) that running 50-yard sprints at 75 percent is newsworthy. He still hopes to be back next week, though I really have no idea if that is a reasonable goal or not.

Want to know how fickle managers are when it comes to the ninth inning? Frank Francisco and Mike Gonzalez have already lost their closers jobs – though both teams have said they will regain them once they are back to throwing the ball as they can. It appears there might also be a changing of the guard in Toronto as well where manager Cito Gaston came out on Tuesday and said that he was no longer going to go with Jason Frasor as the exclusive closer. Gaston has changed his tune after going into the year saying he would pick just one guy, and now he will go with a different option in consecutive games. Certainly it hasn’t helped that Frasor has a loss and two blown saves, but come on now Cito. Don’t give us that B.S. that you don’t want to use the same guy in back-to-back games, just be honest with us and say that Frasor has been awful and Kevin Gregg deserves a shot. No one is stupid enough to buy your explanation.

Conor Jackson is one of the odder leadoff men in the history of baseball from a physical standpoint. He’s obviously only there because the D’backs don’t have a better option, but I gotta say that his stroke basically looks like the mirror image of Joe Mauer. Seriously, it’s that pretty.

Nick Johnson crushed a homer today, way out of New Yankee Stadium. Gotta tell you though, everything that guy does makes me nervous. It’s kinda like the beautiful woman with the evening gown who looks like someone you’d like to take back to the hotel room until you see her walk in her heels which makes her look like a reject from gymnastics class who couldn’t balance on the balance beam. In the batters box the swing looks pretty, but when Johnson is doing anything other than swinging the lumber I just want to close my eyes.

Clayton Kershaw will never reach his potential if he keeps throwing so many pitches. For the record, Kershaw needed 110 pitches to record just 16 outs (5.1 innings) against the D’backs on Tuesday. You just can’t win too many ball games, or be a big game pitcher, if you can never make it out of the sixth inning. The talent is immense, but the lack of control with his pitches is certainly holding him back.

Manny Ramirez crushed a homer 435 feet on Tuesday with one of his effortless swings. Those people who predicted failure from him in 2010 just don’t get it. This guy is one of the top-10 right-handed hitters in the history of the game. Yeah, I said it.

It looks like the Mets will follow through on their plan to bat leadoff man Jose Reyes third in the lineup. Reyes will likely move back into the leadoff spot when Carlos Beltran returns from his knee injury, but that still might be a month or more away given that Beltran still hasn’t been allowed to run yet as the doctors continue to hold him back. Reyes is capable of handling the role, but he might be less inclined top run wild with the middle of the order right behind him.

And finally, for those of you who weren’t aware, I’m in JED WARS this season. What is Jed Wars? It’s an offshoot of Tout Wars, the preeminent fantasy baseball experts league in the country, and is named after Jed Latkin (for more on Jed you can given the movie Fantasyland a view at the link). Back to me, and let’s face it that’s what I’m always all about, you can click on my brief little intro at BaseballGuys Introduction if you want to get some insight into who I am complete with happy faced sweats, gnomes and a Nerd Herd hat from the television show Chuck.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April12, 2010

What is the deal with the massive amount of injuries to all-star caliber players in the opening month of the season? Here is a list of the players I’ll touch on today.

C: Miguel Montero

1B: Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee

2B: Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones

SS: Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Gonzalez

SP: Cliff Lee, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young

RP: Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge

Also —

(1) Jack Cust accepts minor league deal. Does he have any value?

(2) Nelson Cruz bashing. Already has five homers leading to 38 HR, 85 RBI and 20 SB in his last 134 games.

(3) And Prince Fielder who wants at least $180 million, maybe more than $200, to sign long-term.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April7, 2010

(1) Jim Edmonds continues to play over Corey Hart. For more take a look at By The Numbers – Hitters.

(2) Rockies outfield situation a fantasy landmine. For more read Around the Horn.

(3) Dallas Braden’s hot start.

(4) Edgar Renteria off to blazing start (8-for-11).

(5) Mike Morse to take over RF in Washington?

(6) Brad Lidge doing better since cortisone shot in elbow.

(7) Lance Berkman doing better since cortisone shot in knee.

(8) Brandon Webb in holding pattern after cortisone shot.

(9) Ian Kinsler likely 7-10 days away.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low, Sell High

Here is a list of eight guys who I think you should look to either add to, or trade from, your fantasy baseball roster on the eve of of the 2010 season. BUY LOW: Nate McLouth, Corey Hart, Mike Aviles, Lance Berkman. SELL HIGH: Fausto Carmona, Jayson Heyward, Troy Tulowitzki, Joe Mauer.

BUY LOW

(1) McLouth – Had a terrible spring, now dealing with hamstring injury.
(2) Hart – Went 20/20 in 2007-08. Slumping, and Brewers might trade him.
(3) Aviles – Has a .300 bat, and not much in his way right now.
(4) Berkman – Likely to miss two weeks with sore knee, but it’s not serious.

SELL HIGH

(1) Carmona – Great spring, but scary K/BB ratio past two years.
(2) Heyward – Anything short of 20/20 with 100 runs seems like it would be a disappointment.
(3) Tulowitzki – I’m concerned about his ability to repeat homers and steals.
(4) Mauer – For more on Mauer click on the link to MLB Predictions- Hitters.

By Ray Flowers

MIC WARS

It’s my birthday today. I know, I know, those of you that know me knew I was a fool without need of the support of the day of my birth being April Fool’s Day, but there certainly is some nice symmetry here is there not?

With that, I thought I would move on to some actually baseball talk. Dave Gawron organized what we hope will be the first annual MIC WARS. What is MIC WARS? Simply it’s a 12-team mixed league, using 5×5 scoring, that includes 12 shows that talk baseball on Blog Talk Radio (you can find my show, which I do each day with Kyle Elrink, at 8-9 AM PST, Mon. – Fri., or you can check out the archive at The Fantasy Buffet). Before moving on to my team, here is a link to Dave’s review of the entire draft so you can see how it played out. And here is Team Fantasy Buffet (I have the #4 pick in the snake draft that starts 14 hitters, and nine pitchers).

C: Kurt Suzuki (14), Carlos Santana (25), Adam Moore (26)
1B: Derrek Lee (7), Lance Berkman (10)
2B: Jose Lopez (8), Howie Kendrick (9)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (3), Casey Blake (24)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (11), Ian Desmond (23)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Jason Bay (5), Andrew McCutchen (6), Corey Hart (16), David DeJesus (28), Desmond Jennings (29)

SP: CC Sabathia (4), James Shields (12), Jonathan Sanchez (13), Jered Weaver (15), Aaron Harang (21), Brett Myers (30)
RP: Brad Lidge (17), Octavio Dotel (18), Ryan Madson (19), Chris Perez (20), Matt Thornton (22), Joba Chamberlain (27)

C: Suzuki is s top-5 option, and while Santana and Moore may not have starting spots, I bet the duo combines for at least 400 highly effective at-bats.

1B: Two grey beards, but both are capable of 25 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. I’ll take that all day.

2B: Lopez will likely also qualify at third, which is why I took him over Dan Uggla. As for Kendrick, I was tempted to wait and try and target Rickie Weeks later in the draft, but I just couldn’t pass on Kendrick who could hit .300 while going 15/15.

3B: Sandoval is money, plus he’s the Kung Fu Panda and plays for my favorite team. Casey Blake is boring yet highly efficient, and he is a more than adequate backup at third.

SS: Alexei Ramirez may never have that 20/20 season, but I’ll take a repeat of last year (.277-15-68-71-14). Desmond is a bit of a wildcard, but it looks like he will open the year as the Nationals starter at short and could very well surprise given his draft position.

OF: Braun and Ellsbury is a dynamic duo. Bay is as steady as they come as the only OF who in four of the last five seasons has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, 100 runs and 10 steals. McCutchen could blow up and is a wonderful 4th OF, better than a few teams #2 option, and don’t believe the Hart will be platooned talk out of Milwaukee, it ain’t gonna happen. DeJesus is boring but a fine 6th outfielder, and though Jennings has little value at this point, he could be a beast on the base paths if the Rays gave him a shot at playing time.

SP: I normally never take a starter early, but when Sabathia was still there at pick 45 – his ADP is 29 – I thought it was a nice value play. Shields and Weaver are steady, and Sanchez, well, I have high hopes for that kid which you can read about at Taking Sides – Starters. Harang and Myers may not be exciting, but if every breaks right I could get 300 Ks and an ERA below 4.00 from the duo – really.

RP: If you have ever seen a better group of bullpen arms assembled on one team, I would be flabbergasted. If all of these arms are healthy, the unit could sport a K/9 rate of about 10, a massive mark. Lidge is certainly an open question at the start of the year, but I handcuffed that selection by taking Madson who should fill in until Lidge is healthy. Perez will get some saves with Kerry Wood out, Dotel appears locked in the 9th for the Pirates, Thornton may be the best middle reliever in baseball, and you watch Joba dominate in the pen.

This team has some electric arms, a few grizzled vets on offense, and a boat load of talented youngsters. Who knows how the team will end up at the season’s conclusion, but I really love the mix at this point.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: PART III

In my last two posts, I discussed the team I rostered in the K-BAD experts league. In Part III of my review, I’ll give my thoughts on how the draft played out after quickly running through my final few selections.

Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD: Part I.

If you want to read my review of picks 11-28, click on the link to K-BAD: Part II.

ROUND 21: Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I may not have saves in abundance, but Thornton and my last pick, Ryan Madson, give me arguably two most talented setup men in the game.

ROUND 22: Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Once upon a time he went 30/25. Hell, it was just the other day really (2007). If he comes through in ’09 he could be a cheap, vastly underrated, 20/20 option.

ROUND 23: Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Seems refocused knowing his career might be on the line. Too bad the Nationals didn’t buy it as they let him go. This is what happens when you do a draft far in advance of any meaningful games.

ROUND 24: Delmon Young, OF, Twins
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
My third straight young outfielder. All three have a ton of potential, and each could be a terrific fifth outfield option this year.

ROUND 25: Rod Barajas, C, Mets
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
This late you can throw a dart. Hopefully Rod will hit 15 long balls and bat .250. If he does, I’ll be ecstatic. If not, I’ll hit the waiver-wire.

ROUND 26: Brandon Lyon, RP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
There were certainly better relievers still available, but being that I’m weak in saves I had to take a chance on this inferior relief option.

ROUND 27: Casey Blake
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
He has no upside, but I had him as 15th best third basemen so no harm in taking him this late. See Breaking Down: Casey Blake.

ROUND 28: Brett Myers, SP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Not a bad last pick. Seriously. If he can control the homers, in tough park for pitchers, he could return 15th round value.

Here is my team (number is round selected).

C Russell Martin 11
C Rod Barajas 25
1B Miguel Cabrera 1
2B Brian Roberts 3
3B Casey Blake 27
SS Miguel Tejada 9
MI Dan Uggla 6
CI Lance Berkman 5
OF Carl Crawford 2
OF Ichiro Suzuki 4
OF Andrew McCutchen 7
OF Ryan Ludwick 15
OF Chris Young 22
UT David Ortiz 18

P Yovani Gallardo 8
P Scott Baker 10
P James Shields 12
P Trevor Hoffman 13
P Ryan Dempster 14
P Brad Lidge 17
P Aaron Harang 19
P Ryan Madson 20
P Matt Thornton 21

Bench Rafael Furcal 16
Bench Elijah Dukes 23
Bench Delmon Young 24
Bench Brandon Lyon 26
Bench Brett Myers 28

Team Review:

* I already have my fingers crossed. When the draft took place Roberts, Berkman and Martin where totally healthy, and Dukes still had a big league job. So are the breaks of the game.

* Blake in the 27th round was a nice grab, and I’ll have Tejada as an option at the hot corner as well once season gets underway.

* Crawford and Ichiro are a dynamic duo in the OF. If McCutchen does what many expect, that is one potentially fantastic threesome. The group is light on power though, so I added Ludwick who should be a fine 5th hitter for the Cardinals. My final outfield spot will go to one of two men who could be a terrific 5th option – D. Young, C. Young (Dukes hosed me).

* My offense might be a bit light on pop but you can’t have everything when picking against astute owners in an experts league.

* My staff has as good a 5-some of hurlers as any in the league: Gallardo, Baker, Shields, Dempster and Harang. Not a “superstar” amongst them, but that is a fantastic group of arms.

* My bullpen is thin. Every time I went to grab a closer someone else did. In fact, I had only one closer heading into the 17th round. At the end of the round I had two (gulp with Lidge), but another team had three and one grabbed a 4th in 18th. Closers went way too early in this league if you ask me. I didn’t want to roster a flunky just cause they were going, so I ended up passing and grabbed two of the best set up men in the game in Madson and Thornton. In the 26th round I then grabbed Lyon who could be the full-time closer in Houston, a part time option, or a total failure. Still, in the 26th, it was a risk worth taking.

* My staff is really strong top to bottom. I’ll need some help in the saves category, hopefully I’ll be able to snag one of those guys off waivers since there are always at least a handful of guys who emerge, but I should be sitting pretty in wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

Random Thoughts:
* Surprised to see these power arms not drafted: Luke Gregerson, Daniel Bard, Mike Adams, C.J. Wilson and George Sherrill.

* No one took the steady Andy Pettitte, or last year’s ground ball star Joel Pineiro.

* Three Cubs outfielders were left on waivers: Xavier Nady, Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd.

* Youngsters Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin also went teamless. Each offers some upside and should have been rostered in my opinion.

* At second, Kelly Johnson and Mark Ellis are free agents. I would be shocked if both don’t end up as top-20 options at second, and both have a chance to sneak into the top-15.

* No one bought into Russell Branyan repeating his effort from last season now that he is with the Indians, so he was left undrafted. Across the diamond, here are a few of the third basemen that went undrafted as well: Mark Teahen, Mike Lowell, Brandon Inge, Juan Uribe and Adam Kennedy.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year as to how my team stacks up. Let’s just hope there aren’t more injuries prior to the season starting – there is nothing more frustrating that losing because your guys are on the shelf.

By Ray Flowers