Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

I hate to say I told you so, oh who are we kidding I love nothing more than to tell you I told you so, but Henderson Alvarez has stunk this year. As I wrote back on April 2nd in his Player Profile: “Henderson Alvarez had “no chance” of being a top-75 SP in 2012…He also doesn’t miss enough bats putting him at the mercy of his defense and some random forces.” Amazingly for a guy who throws 93 mph with a wicked high 57.3 ground ball rate, Alvarez has still been just as bad as I suggested he would be five months ago. He’s gone 9-12 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with, wait for it, 62 Ks in 168.2 innings. That’s a 3.31 K/9 mark. You could TRIPLE that and he still wouldn’t be striking out 10 batters per nine innings. Given his stuff, that’s an unbelievably pathetic number.

It looks like the Cards will roll out there Chris Carpenter next week. Can’t have set up a better return for him either as it looks like he will be on the hill to face the Astros (more on them below). Carpenter will still have to make it through a 90 pitch simulated game, so he’s still no lock to return from his neck/shoulder woes, but the clubs is encouraged.

Felix Hernandez seems to think that he is Dice-K all of a sudden. King Felix allowed seven runs Thursday night and now has a 9.00 ERA and 2.13 WHIP over his last three starts. What do I always say? Sample size people. He’s been unabashedly awful his last three starts but over his last 12 outings he still owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It’s not what anyone really wants to hear, but the truth is that things are just returning to “normal” with his performance.

Torii Hunter is hitting .300 this year, .309 to be precise. If you try to check the old memory banks for the last time that Hunter hit .300 you’ll be searching for a while since he has never hit .300 before as a big leaguer (he was one hit short in 2009 as he finished the season at .299). It’s not often that a guy sets a career best in his 16th season, but it certainly seems possible for Hunter given that he’s hitting an out of this world .351 over his last 56 games. Overlooked every year on draft day, Hunter just goes out and produces year after year (he’s batting .309 with 15 homers, 76 RBIs, 72 runs scored and nine steals).

The Houston Astros are 46-98 and have been outscored by their opponent by a major league worst 206 runs. No other NL team has been outscored by more than 117 runs (the Cubs). That is all.

Phil Hughes tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the listless Red Sox Thursday to up his season long record to 15-12. I know he’s a Yankee so everyone gets all excited about him, but consider these points. (1) His 3.96 ERA is only slightly below the league average of 4.09. (2) His 7.61 K/9 is only slightly better than the league average of 7.39. (3) His 1.25 WHIP is only slightly ahead of the league average as well (1.31). He’s solid, but you can put the ticker tape parade on hold.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde meet Jason Kipnis. Everyone’s fantasy darling at second base hit the All-Star break with a .277-11-49-53-20 line. In the 52 games since he has hit .216 with three homers, 18 RBIs, 21 runs scored and just seven steals in 13 attempts. He’s gone from being Ian Kinsler to Ronny Cedeno.

Lance Lynn stepped into the rotation for an injured Jake Westbrook an allowed one run over six innings Thursday (Westbook could still miss a couple more weeks of action so Lynn may see a start or two more down the stretch). With the effort he lowered his ERA to 3.95 on the season while picking up his 15th win. He’s been a remarkable waiver-wire add this year even if he has a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his last 54.1 innings.

Joe Nathan blew it on Friday night as he allowed three runs without getting an out for the Rangers.  He only has a 2.83 ERA, 10.99 K/9 and 30 saves in 32 chances. Loser.

I saw Raiders of the Lost Ark last night in IMAX. Pretty amazing I must say. It’s the first time I’ve seen it in the theaters – I was an HBO junkie as a kid. The film holds up really well with the passage of some 30 years.

It’s way too little, way too late, but Michael Young has finally started to hit a bit. In 12 games in September he has posted three homers and 10 RBIs. Too little too late as I stated, but maybe he can give ya something down the stretch.

HITTERS – FRIDAY
Carlos Lee vs. Bronson Arroyo: .321-3-11 in 53 at-bats
Evan Longoria vs. CC Sabathia: .378-5-9 in 37 at-bats
Vernon Wells vs. Brice Chen: .333-3-7 in 21 at-bats

HITTERS – SATURDAY
Robinson Cano vs. James Shields: .417-4-12 in 72 at-bats
Casey Kotchman vs. Anibal Sanchez:  .471-1-3 in 17 at-bats
Michael Young vs. Jason Vargas: .400-1-6 in 30 at-bats

PITCHERS – FRIDAY
Aaron Laffey vs Red Sox: .230/.302/.287 in 87 at-bats
Chris Sale vs. Twins: .183/.231/.283 in 60 at-bats

PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Edwin Jackson vs. Braves: .207/.292/.319 in 116 at-bats
Shaun Marcum vs. Nets: .196/.281/.301 in 56 at-bats

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun (and don’t think I’m not going to this weekend given that I will be in The Vegas. That’s right, The Oracle in Vegas… only good things can happen given that setup, right?). Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

CONTEST

At BaseballGuys.com we have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday July 27th starting at 7pm EST which is FREE. That’s right it costs nothing, to enter. Here are the details:

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Follow these 2 steps to play now:

1. CLICK HERE to register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest

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Remember, it’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs. Oh, I almost forgot to mention you can get a 40% deposit bonus up to $400,refer a friend and both get $20.

**Must have less than 1 MLB win on DailyJoust to compete in contest.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: Hey, it may not make one iota of sense, but Ethier absolutely obliterates pitches from Cain. In 51 career matchups Ethier has produced 22 hits and four walks. The result is a .468 batting average and .491 OBP against the Giants’ ace. James Loney is also 14-for-41 against Cain (.341).

Martin Prado vs. Cole Hamels: Brian McCann has 12 RBIs in 51 at-bats again Hamels but the real star of this show is Prado who has produced 15 hits in 45 career ABs (.333) against the newly minted gazillionare of the Phillies.

B.J. Upton vs. Dan Haren: Eleven Ks in 26 at-bats for Upon in this matchup. So why on Earth am I mentioning Upton as a solid play? In the other 15 at-bats Upton has ripped nine hits including four homers. Add it all up and B.J. has hit .346 with four homers an a 1.192 OPS against Haren.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Lance Lynn vs. Cubs: Lynn has allowed the Cubs to hit .222 with a .617 OPS against him in his young career as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 21.1 innings pitched. Given that he’s allowed just one earned runs in his last three starts overall, this would seem like a pretty fair matchup.

Josh Tomlin vs. Twins: Looking for a sneaky play for Friday? Though current Twins batters have hit a healthy .288 off Tomlin in 73 at-bats, they’ve also managed a mere .297 OBP and .653 OBP as they’ve only taken him deep once.

Carlos Villanueva vs. Tigers: Over his last 10 outings (only four starts), Carlos has 38 Ks and just 15 walks in 34.2 innings leading to a 1.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also had success against the Tigers in his career with a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 5.00 K/BB ratio over 17 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Carl Crawford vs. CC Sabathia: These two have faced off 69 times with Crawford emerging with 22 hits leading to a .319 average. After a tremendous start in his return to action Crawford has slowed though producing only one hit in 18 at-bats before game action Friday.

Buster Posey vs. Chad Billingsley: The Dodgers’ righty was impressive in his first game back from the DL (1 ER in 6 IP vs. STL), but this is one matchup he has a ton of trouble with. Posey has 11 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .478 average (Nate Schierholtz has hit .450 in 20 ABs against Chad). Posey, in case you’ve missed it, is hitting .465 over his last 11 games for the Giants as well.

Matt Kemp vs. Barry Zito: Just seeing this matchup has to make you think that Kemp is going to go off. When you look at the numbers you should be comforted by the fact that your initial thought is exactly right. In 49 career at bats Kemp has ripped off 22 hits (.449) and he’s also taken Zito deep twice with eight walks leading to a .526 OBP.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bruce Chen vs. Mariners: This one is a shot in the dark since he’s pitched so poorly of late including a four runs, two homer effort against the Mariners back in July 18th. Chen has a .200/.209/.323 line in the 65 at-bats against the current Mariners. He’s also always had success against the club from the Pacific Northwest with a 4-0 record, 3.10 ERA and1.16 WHIP in 12 career matchups.

Bartolo Colon vs. Orioles: Current Orioles hitters are batting .243 with two homers and five RBIs in 144 career at-bats off Colon. The hefty righty of the A’s has allowed eight runs in his last two starts, but for the month of July he’s still sporting a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so he’s been very steady overall.

CC Sabathia vs. Red Sox: In 315 career at-bats the Red Sox batters have hit .248 against Sabathia. You’ll remember I mentioned Crawford killing it against CC above. Remove Crawford’s work against Sabathia and the rest of the Sox have hit .228 against the massive lefty.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 26, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

What should we expect from Starling Marte? Is he a 12 or 14 team league add?
– @Daydreaming08

Everyone loves talented rookies. It’s why guys like Matt Moore, Trevor Bauer, Randall Delgado, Drew Pomeranz and Devin Mesoraco have done so well this year. Wait a second, none of those guys has done well (I’d be willing to give Moore a pass, but expectations were so high to start the year that it’s nearly a lock that his owner has been disappointed). For every Bryce Harper there are 25 hot shot rookies that fail to come through. For every Mike Trout there are… well every rookie who has ever played may have to take a backseat to Trout by the time it’s all said and done, and that’s truly shocking. The bottom line is that a team of Nick Swisher’s and Mark Buehrle’s will likely beat up on a team of youngsters year after year. Remember that.

As for Marte, who has been called up by the Pirates, the hype would appear to be justified (at least somewhat). A center fielder by trade, he’ll play left since Andrew McCutchen kinda has that CF spot on lock down. In 98 games at Triple-A Marte was hitting .286 with 12 bombs, 20 doubles, 13 triples, 61 RBIs and 21 steals. This effort comes on the heels of Marte winning the Eastern League batting title (Double-A) when he hit .332. Obviously Marte, ranked the 36th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America early in July, is one of those rare talents that can do it all. A certain blazer who is athletic as all get out, there are still some questions about his ability to control the strike zone, despite all his success, as he is one of those free swingers who rarely takes a walk (his minor league BB/K mark is awful at 0.20, less than half the big league average). Given that approach he could easily struggle, at least in the batting average category.

If you’re in a league that starts five outfielders Marte is without a doubt worth taking a shot on in a 14 team league. Even in a 12 team league he shouldn’t be floating around on the waiver-wire, but make sure you don’t cut an established major league to add him because while there is no doubting Marte has the talent to be a star, there’s a big difference between possessing skills and being able to consistently produce on a big league diamond.

Do I trade Drew Stubbs for Todd Frazier? I need HR, don’t really need SB.
– @MonkeyWithAHalo

Expectations can really be a killer can’t they? I’ve written about this elsewhere recently, but it deserves to be repeated here as well. Stubbs it the modern day Mike Cameron, a guy who helps you in the counting categories, offers a nice mix of power and speed, but one who is going to do you no favors when it comes to the batting average category. However, with seven hits in his last two games, Stubbs has pushed his average up to .230. Not much of course, but it’s only another hot 10 days from the .243 mark he posted last season. In fact, and his owners might not believe it, but Stubbs has been exactly the same player this year that he was last season. Here are his numbers from 158 games last season followed by his numbers in 80 games this year. Heck, I’ll just double his current rate of production which would give us his numbers in 160 games if he were to maintain his current pace.

2011: .243-15-44-92-40
2012: .230-20-58-98-40

That’s right, Stubbs is actually performing better this season than he did last year. Better. In fact, his current effort is right on par with his 2010 effort (.255-22-77-91-30) given the increase in steals this year.

Frazier is seeing playing time at first, third and the outfield for the Reds. Scott Rolen is hitting about as well as Mike Leake, and Joey Votto is on the sidelines working his way back from knee woes giving Frazier a real shot at everyday playing time. Frazier has responded by hitting .302 since the All-Star break, an on the year he has hit .283 with a .343 OBP and .529 SLG. Do you know how many third base eligible players who qualify for the batting title can match those three slash line numbers? The answer is two: Miguel Cabrera (.328/.388/.582) and Edwin Encarnacion (.296/.392/.584). Add in 10 homers in just 223 at-bats and Frazier has been a rather impressive power bat for the Reds.

Stubbs is clearly the superior fantasy performer, but if you are afraid of his average and only in search of a power increase you could make this move, though again, you’re clearly taking a step down in terms of overall production.

Zack Greinke or Lance Lynn rest of the season?
– @silaPssoR

Has it really come to this? Are we really talking about the 2009 AL Cy Young winner in the same breath as a rookie? Greinke clearly has failed to live up to expectations, and he’s had a pretty rough month of work (14 ER in 14 innings) before looking sharp in his last outing (7 IP, 1 ER Tuesday). On the flip-side, Lynn has surprised pretty much every baseball person in the game with his strong work this season. Many, including myself, predicted doom when he hit the skids a month ago (17 ER in 15.1 innings from June 19-30), but he’s actually rebounded extremely well (1 ER his last three starts). Kudos to him for that. Still, let’s keep our wits about us here. Let’s start with the numbers, which are amazingly similar.

Greinke: 9-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 122 Ks in 123 IP
Lynn: 12-4, 3.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 120 Ks in 116 IP

The numbers do favor Lynn. Everything else favors Greinke. That “everything” includes history of success at the big league level. It also includes the eye ball test, the scouting test and the talent test. In addition, Lynn tossed a mere 109.2 innings last year and he’s already up to 116 innings this season. In fact, as a professional, Lynn has never had a big IP season: 2008 (26.2), 2009 (148.2), 2010 (164), 2011 (109.2) and 2012 (116). Add in that Lynn is pitching better in the majors than he ever did in the minors, and I’m still going to side with Greinke despite the recent hiccup he’s trying to overcome.

Should I drop A.J. Pierzynski for Carlos Santana?
– @MattManSports

I try to live by a rather simple set of rules. Get my sleep, drink as many Vodka and Red Bull’s as possible, and try to always go with talent over recent production because in the long run, more times than not, it wins out.

If you had asked this question about which catcher to roster my answer would have been the same in March, as it would have been in May as it is here at the end of July – go with Santana. Younger and more talented, Santana struggled badly in the first half causing people to go running like they do when Godzilla goes rumbling down the street. Since the All-Star break though people have remembered why Santana was a top-3 catcher in all drafts this season as he’s hit .315 with a .500 OBP in 13 games thanks in part to 12 walks and just eight strikeouts. I know he’s only batting .234 with seven homers and 37 RBIs on the year, but I still haven’t been presented with an argument as to why AJP would be a better play from this point forward. ‘Idiot, I mean Ray, have you looked at the numbers that show Pierzynski to be dominating Santana across the board?’ Why yes random person, I have noticed those numbers. I also know the following. (1) Pierzynski is dealing with a minor side issue right now that’s kept him out of action for a few days. (2) He has no homers in 12 games and no RBIs in nine contests. (3) His current total of 16 homers is one off his combined total the last two seasons and the most he has hit since he parked 16 in 2006. (4) His total of 50 RBIs is just one behind his average mark the past three years. (5) His total of 40 runs scored is just one off his average the past two years. (6) Players just don’t set career bests in homers, RBIs, runs, walks, SLG and OPS in their 15th season, especially when they are catchers. You can’t take away what Pierzynski has done this season, but that doesn’t mean I have to buy that he will continue to operate at a pace that we’ve never seen from him before.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: July10, 2012

FIRST HALF SURPRISES

(1) Mike Trout most valuable players since call up.

(2) R.A. Dickey #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball.

(3) Edwin Encarnacion living up to expectations.

(4) Melky Cabrera excelling for Giants.

(5) Jason Kipnis 20/30 threat.

(6) Ian Desmond the top SS in fantasy.

(7) Jake Peavy and Johan Santana putting injury woes behind them?

(8) Lance Lynn has been great, but bullpen in future?

(9) Fernando Rodney best RP in game?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 8: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Felix Doubront (+38, $288K in DailyJoust Salary)
He has won three of his last four starts, and over his last three outings he’s allowed only five runners to cross home plate (four earned). He continues to pile up the strikeouts, 16 in his last 11.2 innings and 53 in 50 innings on the year, showing his high upside arm. He’s still walked a few too many though with a 4.14 per nine mark, and he’s actually given up a ton of hard hit balls as well (25 percent line drive rate). It’s a big arm that Dubront owns, but I can forsee some inconsistency in his future.

Kevin Millwood (+123, $361K)
Where has this come from? I have no idea either. Over his last three starts Millwood has three victories, has allowed only five hits and a mere run while striking out 15 in 22 innings. Millwood hasn’t pitched like this since, jeez, probably back in 2005. He’s not going to keep this up, his 3.72 ERA and 1.29 WHIP marks are unlikely to hold, but he is locked in right now and may make a nice matchup play, especially when pitching at home.

Jonathon Niese (+44, $219K)
Niese has an over four ERA, and that 1.31 WHIP is solid but not great. Still, there are seeds of success here. Niese has a 7.87 K/9 mark, a solid total, but he needs to bring down the 3.58 walk per nine mark (it’s 3.06 for his career). If he reigns in the free passes, and keeps that impressive 1.88 GB/FB ratio going, he’s bound to drop that ERA into the 3′s.

Mark Teixeira (+37, $112K)
You can only keep a good man down for so long. Dealing with a nasty respiratory issue Tex’s bat has finally awoken. Mark has come alive at the dish with eight hits the last three days including three big flies and eight RBI. He’s pushed his average up to a more palatable .254, and don’t forget that, for whatever reason, Teixeira always seems to improve each year as the weather warms.

Alex Rios (+24, $99K)
Alex Rios is hitting a solid .281 on the year, and he has eight hits in his last five games. Included in those eight hits are three homers and nine RBI as he’s also tossed in a steal, his fifth of the year. He still has a long ways to go to live up to my expectations for him, but his current pace certainly looks a lot more impressive thanks to his hot week at the dish.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Josh Bell (-34, $55K)
I’m sorry folks, but Josh Bell can’t hit. There I said it. It’s only been 13 at-bats but we’re looking at two hits an a .154 average for the D’backs “third baseman.” Per his modus operandi, all Bell has done is strike out (five) and never walk (zero free passes) leaving him with a total of 83 strikeouts in 233 at-bats, an awful total. Add in his six career walks and you have someone with a 0.07 BB/K mark for his career. I didn’t even know that was possible.

Lance Lynn (-70, $246K)
Lynn has failed to go more than six innings in his last four starts, and he’s also allowed 10 runs over his last three outings leading to a 5.00 ERA. Given his overall numbers which include a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP it’s not at all surprising to see Lynn start to fall back to earth a bit. He’s been impressive to this point, but there is regression forthcoming.

Alex Rodriguez (-21, $87K)
Hitting .297 with a .796 OPS, ARod is underperforming. He’s still on pace for about 20 homers, but that’s a far cry from the 30 we are used to seeing. His total of 19 RBI also puts him on pace for less than 80, and the last time that happened in a full season was – never (he’s never had fewer than 84 RBI in a season of 440 at-bats). At least he’s stolen six bases to give him some fantasy value while he tries to figure things out at the dish.

Mike Trout (-23, $88K)
Hitting .302 with four homers, 12 RBI, 18 runs and eight steals in just 27 games is an epic start to Trout’s career. Epic. There’s been some give in his game of late as he’s seen his average drop .048 points the past week as the strikeouts have started to pile up (he has eight in six games). What, you thought he was going to flash HOF levels of production in his first full season?

Ben Zobrist (-19, $64K)
Zobrist is hitting .206. Awful. What makes it even more odd is the fact that he is barely hitting .200 despite the fact that he has three more walks than strikeouts (35 to 32). As a result of the free passes his .352 OBP is only one point short of the .353 mark he had last year when he batted .269. On pace to pretty much match last years total of 20 homers, though to fall well behind in RBI/runs, Zobrist seems primed for a run of effectiveness, but for right now he is awfully cold at the dish.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers