Feeling Frisky

Today I’m feel, what is that word, frisky? Another way to put it would be to say that I’m acting sassy, at least that’s how my brother’s wife would label it. The bottom line though is that I’m feeling a bit irreverent, so read what follows with a grain of salt.

Didn’t you used to be Jose Arredondo, you know the guy who vultured 10 victories as a rookie in 2008 with a sterling set of ratios (1.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP)? Well at least we know why your ratios skyrocketed to 6.00 and 1.56 last season – your arm was severely jacked up. On Friday it was announced that Arredondo will miss the entire 2010 season (and maybe half of 2011) as he has Tommy John surgery scheduled for January. I take back all the mean things I said about you last season Jose.

Chan Ho Park has a one year deal on the table from the Phillies for something like $3 million. Two problems with that, well three. (1) LaTroy Hawkins just got a two year deal for over $7 million and Brandon Lyon got a 3-year deal for $15 million. (2) Park is still operating under the misguided belief that he can be still a starting pitcher (he can’t). (3) Why can’t I throw 93 mph?

I touched on many of the hot button questions that are still left unanswered as we head into the weekend in my Friday Five Questions piece.

I’m in California, and I know it’s nearing Christmas, but really, snow?

With all the scumbags in sports including Mr. I’m going to save the world with my golf swing (his name rhythms with a Geiger, as in the counter used to detect radiation, if you don’t know who I’m talking about), it’s nice to know that there are still guys out there that we can all look up to. Of course I’m referring to Derek Jeter who was named Sports Illustrated’s Man of the Year. If you can’t see the picture that accompanies this piece, click on the link to BaseballGuys – you can see it there.

Is it me, or does anyone else ever wonder why when you look at the serving suggestions on the back of a can of soup it always says that it’s two or two and a half servings? Who is their target audience, gnomes?

I’m still in awe of the Rays’ bullpen arms now that Rafael Soriano is in town. You can read more about my thoughts in Winter Meetings Review – Pitchers.

Going to the Sharks game tonight with my pops. Yep, on top of it all I’m also a tremendous son.

The Giants are still trying to land their man to put in the middle of the lineup. Since this entire piece seems to be me simply linking to other articles I’ve written in the past 24 hours why not throw another one in here and send you all to my Five Questions piece where I take the Giants temperature vis a vis Dan Uggla.

Still looking for that last minute stocking stuffer? If you are let me point you toward our 2010 Baseball Preview Magazine that is already on newsstands. If you don’t want to fight traffic to pick one up, just order one from the comforts of your own home in the Fanball Store. That way you can drink some spiked eggnog and not have to worry about driving drunk. See, I’m quite the humanitarian aren’t I?

Oh, and in closing, those of you looking for some really in-depth reporting, check back on Monday. I seem to be spent this week.

By Ray Flowers

Down the Stretch: Pitchers

Today it’s all about pitchers. I just started typing some random bits of information that caught my fancy, and when I looked up I realized that everything I penned had to do with guys who take the hill. So without further ado, here are five men, who throw the ball for a living, that I thought you might enjoy reading about today.

Joe Blanton threw seven shutout innings on Tuesday to lower his ERA down to 3.82. In 14 of his last 15 appearances he has allowed three or fewer earned runs. The man may not know how to wear stirrups, or how to shave his ridiculous looking facial hair, but he knows what to do with the ball in his hand.

Angel Guzman has been shut down for the remainder of the 2009 season do to a strained right triceps muscle. You may not have realized it, but he was actually the most consistent arm in the Cubs’ bullpen this season. Kevin Gregg leads the team with 23 saves and Carlos Marmol leads the group with 27 holds and 86 Ks in 70 innings, but guess who has the best WHIP on the team? That’s right, it’s Guzman with his 1.05 WHIP in 61 innings. Guzman also owns a 2.95 ERA on the year which also is the best mark of any hurler on the squad who has thrown more than 30 innings. See what I mean?

Josh Johnson picked up 10 strikeouts on Tuesday in his fifth loss of the season. Johnson threw five innings to leave him on the precipice of a milestone with 199.1 innings pitched on the season. Still, the Marlins continue to baby him. Johnson has been allowed to throw more than five innings just one time in four starts despite allowing two or fewer runs three times in this stretch. In fact, Johnson has now gone seven starts without tossing seven innings. Managing a pitchers innings count is important, especially when a guy is coming off injury, but if you are just going to pull him out of the game every time he hits 90 pitches (he tossed 92 on Tuesday), what’s to keep the other team from simply taking pitches and trying to drive up a guys pitch count so that they can get into the bullpen?

Pat Misch has lost each of his last three appearances for the Mets, hardly a shock given that he owns a 1-11 record in his big league career. In fact, it took him 55 appearances at the big league level to come up with his first victory, and in his three appearances since then he has gone 0-3 with a 12.40 ERA with two Ks and two BBs over 12.1 innings for the Mets. The Mets have decided to return Misch to the pen after those three outings. They certainly have some sharp guys making decisions with the Mets don’t they?

Manny Parra (neck) will make his scheduled start on Friday as he attempts to improve on his 10-10 record. No word yet on if he will resemble a major league pitcher or not in that outing given his 6.42 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his 25 starts this season. Those numbers got me to thinking. How easy is it to win 10 or more games with an ERA over 6.40? So I looked it up and the answer is – not very. It’s only happened twice in the last decade though Parra could make himself the third man on the list joining Ryan Drese and Colby Lewis. If we add on another decade, and take things back to 1990, one more name is added in LaTroy Hawkins. Going back to 1980, no one else makes the cut. Ditto if we go back to 1970, 1960, 1950, 1940. In fact, since the era of modern baseball began way back in 1900 there have only been three seasons in baseball history with an ERA over 6.40 and at least 10 victories in a single season. If Parra wants to become a part of history all he needs to do is continue along at his current rate and he will make it four. You don’t think he would purposefully throw a few batting practice type fastballs to see if he could keep that ERA high do you? Me neither, but it may be the only shot he ever has at history so perhaps I’ll shoot him an email to let him know he is on the edge of something really big.

By Ray Flowers

Trying to Focus

I’m tired, a bit hungry, wondering when/if I will meet the love of my life and generally dealing with an overall malaise as the NFL season gets under way. Now I’m also dealing with a shoulder I strained while lifting weights the other day – I think it was during that grueling set of bench pressing 95 lbs – so yes, I’m in a sad state. Let’s see how that translates to my entry today. I’m betting there will be some biting analysis.

Troy Glaus is now out of action with a sore oblique. Apparently pinch hitting was too much for the guy as Glaus has but three hits in 17 at-bats this season. For a guy who had back-to-back 40-homer seasons in 2000-01, and one who has averaged 34 homers per 550 ABs in his career, this year has been a flippin’ waste of time. Thanks Troy.

Another youngster with a luminous future has been shut down do to workload concerns. Brian Matusz of the Orioles has thrown his last pitch of the season. The 22 year old tossed 157.2 innings this season, deemed by the Orioles as more than enough. Though disappointed, Matusz was still proud that he was able to ascend the minor league ladder to force the club to promote him to the bigs. “It was never in the plan for me to be here this year,” he said. “I’m really proud that I went out and didn’t give them any choice but to bring me up. I really learned a lot and am proud of my progress.” I’m proud of my progress too Brian, but I’m not looking over my shoulder as I’m fairly sure that Fanball won’t shut me down as ownership seems to be operating under the belief that I’ve got the stamina to type articles well into the month of December.

Magglio Ordonez will make $18 million next season – $18,000,000 – when he picks up a handful of plate appearances to trigger next seasons extension. What did he do for that dough? He has hit all of .294, just slightly off his .311 career mark, and his .365 OBP is also barely off his career mark as well (.371). Still, the guy has undershot his OPS by more than .100 points (.769 compared to .883) and with seven home runs and 40 RBI in 401 ABs he will end up with the worst numbers of his career in a season of at least 400-plate appearances. Goodness gracious, the man averaged 24 home runs and 115 RBI the past three years meaning he hasn’t even offered 50 percent of his “normal” production this year, yet he will still make more money next year than the total 2009 salaries of everyone who will read this article in the first hour after it is posted. Only in America, isn’t that what Don King says?

Apparently Jose Valverde is worse off than me right now. He has a 101 degree fever which has him unavailable to pitch leaving closing duties to LaTroy Hawkins. The veteran righty has 11 saves on the season, with four blown ones, and has also picked up 17 holds in what has been a rather fine season.

Delwyn Young was hitting .312 as recently as August 19th. Alas, the man has forgotten how to hit, and no, that isn’t hyperbole I’m using – he literally has forgotten how to hit. Young hasn’t produced a hit in 10 games during which time he is 0-for-24, and going back a bit further he has produced just five hits in 59 at-bats (.085) to drop his overall average down to .268. Think of this: if we quadruple his batting average the past couple weeks, quadruple it, we are left with a batting average of .340 which is still some .021 points behind the NL leading .361 batting average of Hanley Ramirez. That’s a frightening statement to make with Halloween still a month and a half away.

By Ray Flowers

At What Cost?

Every team needs saves. Some take the chance on draft day and roster “locks” like Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, while others take the chance on guys with good skills that have yet to prove themselves (names like Frank Francisco, Joey Devine and Chad Qualls). Others wait to roster closer off of the waiver-wire knowing full well that saves can be had, in standard 12 team leagues, virtually all season via free agency. In fact, according to our friends at Baseball HQ, roughly 1/3 to ½ of all closers who open the year as their teams top ninth inning ace failed to return even 50% of their draft day value by seasons end (that means if you spent $20 on a reliever he would be just as likely to earn $20 as he would be to earn $10 or less in production). Think that’s off the mark? Just look at names that little last years save leaders and think back as to how many of these guys could have been had off waivers in the month of April, 2008.

George Sherrill- 31 saves
Salomon Torres- 28
Ryan Franklin- 17
Fernando Rodney-13
Dan Wheeler- 13
Jensen Lewis- 13
Brad Ziegler- 11

My bet is that every one of those guys were available in your league last April.

The point is that guys with saves can certain be found on waivers, in fact early season breakout candidates in this realm include the likes of Ryan Franklin (seven), and Fernando Rodney (six). The question becomes, how much do you spend on guys if you are in a league that uses free agent acquisition budget’s (FAAB) and your are looking at in season moves? Here are my thoughts on the four biggest names that were likely picked up weekend.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros
With Jose Valverde likely to miss at least four weeks with a calf injury, Hawkins will likely hold down the ninth inning for the Astros, and this position was further enhanced when Doug Brocail was forced to the DL with a hamstring injury. Hawkins hasn’t recorded double-digit saves since 2004 and he has just 10 saves and 20 blown saves in that time. In fact, since 2005 Hawkins has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 5.77 K/9 mark. That’s league average across the board, but at least you know you should get a month of save chances out of him.
VALUE: Medium

Joe Beimel, Nationals
Julian Tavarez is also in the mix for saves, and Beimel is actually in the minors right now on a rehab assignment for a left hip flexor strain (he hopes to be back this week). Beimel has appeared in 224 games since the start of the 2006 season, and in that time he has only thrown 193.2 innings as more often than not he wasn’t asked to face right-handed batters. In this time frame he also owns a 4.83 K/89 mark and a 1.55 K/BB rate, terrible numbers for a reliever and putrid for a closer. He will likely get a few saves, but I just can’t see him being the answer as Joel Hanrahan certainly should get a shot to reclaim his lost job at some point.
VALUE: Low

Ryan Madson, Phillies
Only a closer if Brad Lidge is out with injury. There are concerns with Lidge’s knee, but Madson is clearly the second option even though at this point his ability to accrue saves is nil. Still, Madson is a fine addition given that his fastball has gained three mph this season (94.6) leading to a huge boost in his K/9 mark (13.09) while working with a tremendous 1.83 G/F ratio. If Lidge goes down, still a possibility, Madson gains a ton of value.
VALUE: Medium

Michael Wuertz, Athletics
Joey Devine is out for the year. Brad Ziegler is missing time with an illness. Santiago Casilla is on the DL with a calf strain. That means Wuertz has picked up a couple of saves while sporting a solid 8.56 K/9 marl and a scintillating 6.50 K/BB. Don’t expect it to continue as his control has never been remotely this good (2.18 K/BB career). When Ziegler and Casilla are healthy look for Wuertz to be nothing more than a solid middle reliever option, especially with Andrew Bailey also pitching lights out (1.53 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 20 K in 17.2 IP).
VALUE: Low

The bottom line is that saves are available and will continue to be on there on waivers through the course of the season. Just make sure you invest wisely so as to avoid picking up a handful of saves while imploding your ratios.

By Ray Flowers

Wednesday Baseball

Today I’m going to look around the landscape of baseball and point out a few of the more interesting tidbits as the clock winds down on this Wednesday.

Eric Byrnes went 1-for-4 on Wednesday to “raise” his average to .152. He did steal two bags and appears to be running very well after a lost 2008 because of hamstring issues.

D’backs, please start scoring some runs for Dan Haren. In his four starts this year the club has scored a total of three runs. As a result, instead of being the early favorite for the NL Cy Young, Haren is 1-3 despite a 1.38 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP.

Brandon Phillips is hitting .143 on the young season thanks to an 0-for-21 slump. As a result he has been dropped to sixth in the order. Miscast as a cleanup hitter, Phillips would likely be better served hitting second or fifth, but the Reds really don’t have a better option at the moment than Phillips. Dating back to August first last year, Phillips is hitting a miniscule .183 over 191 ABs. That isn’t a slump, it’s a trend. Oddly his struggles this year have come despite the fact that he has more walks (nine) than strikeouts (seven). You can blame his inordinately low BABIP mark of .147. When things normalize, the average should return to at least the .260 level.

CC Sabathia had another rough outing on Wednesday as he allowed six earned runs in 6.2 innings against the Athletics who entered the game hitting an AL worst .237 with the second worst OBP in the league at .309 (only the Mariners were worse at .305). Just like last season when he started slowly, Sabathia has had a very difficult time throwing strikes as he has struck out just 12 batters while walking 14 leading to a K/BB mark of 0.86 through four starts. Considering he owns a career mark of 2.63 and has posted a mark of at least 3.91 in each of the past three seasons, one has to figure things will turn around quickly. Still, his slow start cannot be leading to too many smiles in the Yankees’ front office or with those people who took Sabathia as their fantasy ace in 2009.

Jose Valverde has struggled a bit to start the year, and now he is dealing with a bruised right ankle and a strained calf muscle that he suffered on Tuesday night. At this point there isn’t necessarily a substantial worry that he will end up on the DL, but that is the LaTroy Hawkins train warming up in the station to take over in case Valverde cannot go. Here is my advise – you had better think long and hard about adding Hawkins in anything other than an NL-only league. Sure LaTroy posted solid numbers last year with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 62 innings, including some great work with the Astros (0.43 ERA, 0,73 WHIP, 25 K in 21 IP), but come on now we are talking about LaTroy Hawkins here. Dude has 77 saves and 47 blown saves in his career, and he hasn’t been given even 10 saves chances since the 2005 season when we has six saves and nine blown chances. For whatever reason, and it makes no sense, the man simply cannot come through in the ninth inning. It’s as simple as that. Don’t fool yourself into thinking it will be any different, even if Valverde ends up on the disabled list.

Barry Zito was 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA last year when Pablo Sandoval was behind the plate. On Wednesday Sandoval caught his first games of the year, with Zito on the hill, and he went seven shutout innings though it was against the Padres. The Giants aren’t ready to say it, but we might be getting awfully close to Pablo serving as the personal catcher for Zito, and that would be music to Sandoval’s owner’s ears if he doesn’t qualify as a catcher in your league at the moment (this was his first game behind the dish this season).