Things You Should Know

There’s an outfielder with the Red Sox who is a huge question mark heading into the 2013 major league season. A Cubs’ hurler is working back toward health. An ace from 2012 is having a hard time finding a job. The funniest major league baseball player on Twitter is trying to get his career back on track. Is the real Marlins’ slugger, you know that outfielder that changed his name, worth taking a shot on at the top of a draft? Finally, why can’t the guy who leads baseball in saves the past three years find a job?

Jacoby Ellsbury will hit leadoff for the Red Sox this season. Duh. It’s a huge season for Ellsbury personally, and for his fantasy outlook as well. I know that he had one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever in 2011 (.321-32-105-119-39) but consider these facts before going all in with Ellsbury. (1) In two of the last three years he’s failed to appear in 75 games. (2) He’s has one season of 10 homers. (3) He’s had one 10/10 season. (4) He’s hit under .275 in two of the last three years. (5) The last time he stole 40 bases was 2009. Tread carefully.

Matt Garza‘s lat strain sounds like it will end up being a minor issue. He’ll likely start throwing in a few days to make sure that he’s physically good to go as he works his way back from last years elbow issue. I believe he’s currently a sold draft day bargain given his suppressed cost (the NFBC has him listed as the 42nd starting pitcher off the board). Remember, this guy is as stable an option as any in the game. He owns a 3.84 career ERA. That mark has been between 3.32 and 3.95 each of the past six years. His WHIP is 1.29 for his career. The mark has been between 1.18 and 1.26 each of the past five years. It should also be noted that that last two seasons he’s produced the two best K/BB ratios of his career (3.13 and 3.00), and for the first time his K-rate has been over 8.30 in two consecutive years.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Kyle Lohse is still looking for a home. Turns out the draft pick compensation, a team could lose a first round draft pick if they sign Lohse, is causing a bunch of teams to be very wary of signing Lohse. I’d caution any team looking to sign him that they should also read his Player Profile to learn that the guy they are looking to buy might not actually be the guy they think they are getting.

Logan Morrison has started to run on a treadmill as he works his way back from knee surgery that he had in September. Hard to think that it’s been five months and he’s just starting to run is a good thing, but he did have his patella tendon repaired so it wasn’t a minor situation. The Marlins desperately need LoMo to help protect Giancarlo Stanton in what is shaping up to be a rather anemic lineup. Can LoMo fill that role even if he’s healthy? I have doubts. In 1,002 career at-bats, Morrison has gone deep just 36 times while batting .250, and that .339 OBP is nothing to get all worked up over either. The bottom line is that he’s failed to live up to expectations to this point, unless we’re talking about his work on Twitter which is flipping excellent. Will 2013 be the turnaround to what ails him? Speaking of Stanton…

Giancarlo Stanton was hit in the noggin’ by a pitch from phenom Jose Fernandez, but the good news is that he escaped serious injury – there is no concussion. The question that we should now all be asking is Stanton worthy of being a top-20 selection this year (he’s even been going in the first round on occasion). For his career, let’s give him a 550 at-bat season at his established levels, Stanton has produced a .270 average, 39 homers, 96 RBIs, 83 runs and seven steals. I know his potential is immense, but are those really first round numbers? Last season Josh Willingham hit .260 with 35 bombs, 110 RBIs, 85 runs scored and three steals. Have you heard anyone even talk about drafting Willingham in the top-100 overall this season? Just some food for thought.

I’m in love… with DORITOS Spicy Sweet Chili Flavored Tortilla Chips.

SO YOU WANT TO DRAFT A CLOSER?

Jose Valverde is still looking for a home, and it doesn’t sound like the Tigers are any more inclined to bring him back into the fold now than when they let him walk after his contract expired. This story may seem like nothing, especially since Valverde is no longer the pitcher he once was (his K/9 rate has literally gone down for 6-straight years and it was just 6.3 per nine last year), but there is this angel to consider.

Last season Valverde had 35 saves, tied with John Axford for 8th in baseball.

Over the last two years Valverde has 84 saves, the second most in baseball (Craig Kimbrel has 88).

Over the last three years Valverde has 110 saves, the most in baseball.

The guy with the most saves in baseball, the most, can’t find a job. Major league teams don’t even value the save. You shouldn’t overspend on draft day for closers… it’s such a fickle position.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June28, 2012

It’s Thursday, so it’s time to answer the questions you’ve sent me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Mike Stanton for Bryce Harper/Trevor Plouffe/Andre Ethier?
@wekings007

Reality check everyone. As great as Stanton is and will one day be, he’s merely an impressive power hitter right now. The best hitter on the planet in May, he’s been pretty darn blah the other two months of the season. In the end he’s on pace to hit .274 with 35 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs. Those are impressive totals indeed, but they are not the jump off the page I’m going to win a fantasy championship because of them numbers. Did you listen when I told you to back down from expectations before the season started?

I know that Ethier injured his left oblique Wednesday, and that there is no clear cur answer as to how much time he  is going to miss throwing his value up in the air, but do you know what his current pace is for the Dodgers? How about 291 with 20 homers, 115 RBI and 75 runs. Is that really that far off of Stanton’s pace? Harper has slowed a bit but he’s still hitting .281 with a .841 OPS and a pace that would lead to a 20/20 season over a full slate of games.

Plouffe is the wild card. Over his last 10 games he has hit .243 with one homer, a far cry from the insane pace he set early in the month when he blasted nine homers with 16 RBI in 12 games. The power is legit, he’s gone deep 25 times in 512 career at-bats, but he’s also hit .232 with a mere .299 OBP – not exactly the stuff of legend. Still, he qualifies at shortstop and third in all league, and in most he’s also eligible in the outfield and possibly even second base.

If Ethier was healthy this would be a killer deal. Even with him injured it’s certainly not an awful haul, even though Stanton is the most exciting player in the group. I think the question becomes which two players would you need to drop since you’re adding three players and only sending one away? Add in those two players and the deal likely won’t make sense.

Where is Wil Myers going to play if KC promotes him? How long before promotion?
@The_Real_Ray_D

I get this question all the time, and here is my standard answer.

Alex Gordon will be playing everyday in the outfield.

Jeff Francoeur, unless he is traded (the club is probably hoping they can move Frenchie), will be playing everyday in the outfield.

Lorenzo Cain, slated to start in CF this year before injuries struck (remember when he was killing it in the preseason leading to people drafting him as one of the potential breakout starts of 2012?), is closing in on a return to the big leagues as his rehab work (hip issue) was shifted to Triple-A this week.

Billy Butler is the DH and Eric Hosmer is the first baseman.

Where can Myers fit in there? He can’t is the answer. The Royals will need to trade Francoeur, or Cain will have to stall out in his recovery to give the power hitting Myers a chance to play everyday in the bigs (Myers is killing it hitting .325 with 35 homers and 65 RBI in 75 minor league games this year). As I wrote last November in my AFL – 2011 Review column, the guy is gonna be a star – we’re just going to have to wait a bit longer.

Any chance Logan Morrison will have a decent second half?
@peterjpappas

After hitting 23 homers with 72 RBIs last year there was some hope that LoMo would take his game to the next level this season as a prime time run producing force. He hasn’t. His average is down .020 points to .227 and his OBP has dropped to .305 (career .340). He’s on pace for about 18 homers and 55 RBI. He’s also walking less than he did in either of his two previous seasons. Toss in a sickly .241 BABIP, some .041 points below his career rate, and there really isn’t much to get excited about here at all. I can’t envision a player of his skill set being this bad all year long, but there’s nothing going on here that screams to me that LoMo is going to be a significant player in the fantasy game the ROTW.

Jon Lester and Michael Bourn for Justin Verlander?
@franksyanks23

Lester has a 5-5 record, 4.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. After years of upper echelon work those are terribly disappointing numbers. Still, he’s tossed 5-straight “quality starts” as he slowly seems to be rounding into form. Oddly, Lester has lost more than a batter off his K/9 rate while also dropping a batter off his BB/9 rate. The result us a 2.93 K/BB ratio that would actually be a three year best if you can believe it. He’s also produced a 1.76 GB/FB ratio that is better than his 1.44 career rate. The real issue is that his he’s been getting hit hard. Currently his line drive rate is 23.3 percent, an unheard of level for a guy with a 19 percent career mark that has kept that mark under 21 percent each of the past four years. I’d expect his effort to continue to improve.

Bourn has been an elite performer — just like I said he would be. Oddly though, he’s accomplished it in a bit different way that was expected. After hitting seven homers the past three years he has gone deep seven times this season. Clearly this is one of those random things that just happens sometimes (don’t expect him to go deep 15 times this year). However, after 3-straight years of at least 52 steals he has “only” 20 thefts this year. He’s still on pace for a fifth straight effort of 40-steals, but it would be nice to see a few more stolen bases. Still, you can’t complain when Bourn is hitting .309 with 50 runs scored in 74 games.

Verlander is as good as it gets. His ERA is up a tenth from last year to 2.52, his WHIP is up less than a tenth to 0.97, and his K/9 rate is down three tenths to 8.64. Wow, he’s really fallen off. He’s the pinnacle of the elite. Period.

The deal is pretty fair for both sides. Most people don’t want to give up the “best player” in a deal, but the return here is significant – an elite outfielder and a solid hurler who is slowly rounding into form.

I was offered Chase Utley or Billy Butler for Derek Jeter? I have Jose Reyes to play SS and Allen Craig to play 2B.
@NY_G123

Pull the breaks on the hype train. Utley returned to action, and homered in his first game, but there is NO way you can take him for Jeter straight up, even if you do have Reyes to fill in at shortstop. None. Utley missed nearly the first three months of the season with knee issues, this coming on the heels of seasons of 115 and 103 games played. You know the Phillies aren’t going to play him every day the rest of the way either (he’s resting Thursday). I’m all for taking a shot on Utley because I think he will still be an effective hitter when on the field, but you’d be better off pouring soap in your eye and trying to read a smutty novel than doing this deal.

The Butler offer does make sense. Though everyone always likes to put the guy down, or just flat out overlook him for some reason, Butler is a hell of a hitter. Not only is he hitting .297, he’s hit at least .291 each of the past three years, he’s also on pace for a career best in the homer category with 15 through 72 games (his previous best is 21 homers). I don’t think he’ll get to 30 homers, it’s not likely that he’ll be able to keep his 22.1 percent HR/F rate given that it’s double his career rate of 11 percent, but that doesn’t mean a .300-25-100 season can be ruled out for the Royals’ hitter.

In this situation, with Reyes ready to take over at short, I’d take Butler in the deal. Jeter has solid all-around numbers (.305-7-25-40-6) but he’s had only 12 RBI and hit a mere .269 over his last 50 games played after his tremendous start to the year.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Mailbag: July 12, 2011

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

You ask, I answer. Here are some of my thoughts on the questions that I receive all week at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Do you see Drew Stubbs coming back in the second half? He’s been terrible lately.
– @acase22

Perception isn’t always reality.

All of us, at one time or another, get sucked into the sample size morass, yet very few of us emerge from it with our senses intact. Example. Emilio Bonifacio may be the most valuable player in the fantasy game in the month of July as he’s hitting .441 with eight steals and 10 runs scored in nine games. So you pick up Bonifacio, ride him until he returns to being the below average hitter he has always been (.259/.319/.333 for his career) and move on. The problem is, most of the time in just such a scenario you don’t realize that the minor player is hot until they’ve been that way for two weeks, so by the time you actually make the move to pick them up they’re already tailing off. It’s why, more times than not, going with the more skilled player results in a better outcome than trying to play the hot hand over and over again. Two weeks or even a month just isn’t that long when the season goes on for six months.

As for Stubbs, he is a highly skilled, albeit flawed, player. There’s no disputing that he has struggled of late as he’s hitting .206  over his last 10 games, has gone 14 contests without a homer, and the last time he stole a base was June 27th, 13 games ago. But back to our old friend sample size. Let’s look past his work the past three weeks and compare his season long pace this year to the numbers he produced last year.

2010: .255-22-77-91-30
2011: .250-19-56-103-40

It might be hard to believe because he’s struggled so much of late, but Stubbs is actually on pace to have a slightly better fantasy season this year than last because of the addition of the steals and runs which help to negate the loss in homers and RBI.

If you drafted Stubbs expecting him to hit .280, you were fooling yourself. If you drafted him thinking he would be as consistent as the sun rising and falling, you were fooling yourself. Stubbs is an all or nothing type hitter who strikes out too much, and therefore has long stretches of ineffectiveness, but as long as he keeps up his year long pace his numbers will be just fine at years end.

Just saw that Ryan Raburn hit .315 with 13 homers last year in the 2nd half, better than Robinson Cano’s .299 and 13 effort.
– @CUTESalad

I know this isn’t a question, but I’ll use it as a springboard to mention something that you should all be made aware of – first and second half splits usually mean little. But you’re going to say ‘Player A hits .050 points higher in the second half, how could you not care about that?’ My response is – it’s totally random. Why not choose May 3rd through June 29th as the sample size to review? Because it’s ugly to look at. Using the All-Star game as a dividing line makes all the sense in the world because it’s a natural break point. However, that’s all it is – a natural break point. Let me give you an example.

Let’s say Player A is a .250 hitter in the first half, but a .300 hitter in the second half. If you saw an article pointing that out, your natural inclination would be to add that player right now. But should you? Let’s say that Player A had exactly 250 at-bats each of the six years he has been in the league in the second half. Again, let’s postulate that he is a .300 hitter in the second half. What if I told you the following hitting line would give you a total of .300 for a second half average despite looking pretty scary?

.250, .350, .375, .225, .335, .265

Those totals would net you an average of .300, but as you can tell, two of the years Player A was well below average, and one season he was league average at best. If you get the player who hits .375 you win your league. If you get the guy who hits .225, well, fantasy football will start soon (we all hope). Also, don’t forget about sample size. Make sure there is enough data at your disposal to truly ferret out what is going on as two seasons of splits isn’t likely to give you a crystal clear outlook on the situation.

Be very careful not to buy into a number without checking out the data behind that number. As much as I love numbers, even I know that they can be deceiving at times.

Mike Napoli’s back. Will he get more playing time?
– @zumbahlenm

Napoli’s usage over the years is one of the more vexing situations in the game. Year after year the guy flat out mashes, yet his manager never seems to have confidence in him. He’s not the greatest defensive catcher in the game, though his Catchers Earned Run Average (CERA) says otherwise (he’s tops amongst all catchers in baseball who have appeared in 25 games behind the plate), but his bat is elite in terms of power. Napoli has hit a mere .232 this season, but his OPS is .873, fourth at the position amongst fellas with 180 plate appearances. He’s also powered 12 homers with 33 RBI for the Rangers in just 155 at-bats. That’s a pace that would net him 36 homers and 99 RBI over 465 at-bats. Why isn’t someone willing to use him at catcher, first and DH to give him 500 at-bats? I guess no team in baseball could use 30 homers.

Honestly, with the way that the Rangers have used him all year, I don’t have much faith that their suddenly going to start running him out there every day. The best way for that to happen would likely be if he was dealt to a team that understands the talents he possesses.

I have Logan Morrison. Matt Joyce is available. Swap them?
– @hedmojave

Remember at the top when I said perception isn’t always reality. The perception is that Joyce started out hot and is now a dud, while LoMo is a better all-around hitter. However, is that true?

One thing is completely clear, Joyce was phenomenal, and then poor – there is no dispute there. Joyce hit .370 with nine homers over his first 51 games, and since then he’s hit .163 with three homers. Yikes is right. LoMo has also struggled recently. After hitting .320 over his first 32 games he’s hit .221 over his last 37 games. Still, I bet it would surprise many of you out there to learn that Joyce still bests LoMo in runs, batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS.

Joyce: .290-12-41-45-5 with a .351 OBP, .513 SLG, .864 OPS
LoMo: .267-12-42-29-1 with a .343 OBP, .489 SLG, .832 OPS

Surprising isn’t it?

So who would I take rest of the way? You got a coin to flip? I’d go with Morrison, but I admit that it’s quite possible that the numbers of the two outfielders this season will end up being pretty similar.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Around the Horn: May 13, 2011

(1) Carlos Pena finally hitting. Be wary though.

(2) Magglio Ordonez (ankle) to the DL. Brennan Boesch to take over. For more on Boesch see Buy or Sell – AL Version.

(3) Delmon Young and Logan Morrison come off the DL.

(4) Joe Nathan improving – up to serving as a setup man for Matt Capps.

(5) Grady Sizemore missing time with a knee issue for Indians.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 21, 2011

(1) Ryan Braun signs massive contract extension.

(2) Logan Morrison likely headed to the DL with a foot injury.

(3) Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel really struggling.

(4) Ryan Zimmerman (abdominal strain) unlikely to return next Tuesday.

(5) Brandon Morrow off DL – will start Saturday.

(6) Bartolo Colon looks good in first start.

(7) Willie Bloomquist starting to slow.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April7, 2011

(1) Lastings Milledge released by the White Sox. Will he ever reach his potential?

(2) Edinson Volquez struggling to find the strike zone – again.

(3) Logan Morrison has a bright future, but what is his value this season?

(4) Michael Bourn tweaks groin. Does that mean he’ll stop running?

(5) Yunel Escobar has head injury. Hopefully it’s minor after his hot start.

(6) Vlad Guerrero – he can still hit despite his slow start.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 31, 2011

I’m gonna switch it up a bit today in honor of the start of the 2011 season. Instead of going in depth on a couple of questions, I’m going to answer some quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

12 team 5×5 mixed league. Kila Ka’aihue or Mark Trumbo?
– @truesportsfan

No team scares the bejesus out of me more than the Royals who never, and I mean never, seem to have a consistent plan. Take the case of Alex Gordon. He’s been demoted to the minors, asked to switch positions, and basically marginalized by the team. He goes to spring training this year, tears it up at the dish, and now seems likely to open the year in the third hole in the batting order. That makes total sense to me.

Ka’aihue should have been playing full-time in Kansas City last year. With Eric Hosmer coming quickly, the Royals need to determine if they truly have something in Kila since both guys play first base (and don’t forget about Billy Butler who really should be a DH). Kila has 25-30 homer pop, and the young man knows the strike zone (last year he had 88 walks and 69 Ks at Triple-A). He has the exact kind of patient/power approach that teams crave at first base. His future appears to be pretty bright after a strong spring and the Royals finally deciding to commit to him as a full-time player.

Trumbo was a monster at Triple-A last year (.299-36-122), and has looked capable of providing a ton of power this season if we look at his spring training numbers (.297-6-20 with a .978 OPS in 25 games). At the same time, I worry about where he will play once Kendrys Morales returns to action (potentially by mid to late April). The issue is this – the Angels have one to many players for 1B/OF/DH. For those five spots they have six guys: Trumbo, Morales, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Peter Bourjos. The key to Trumbo’s playing time is likely Bourjos. If he hits enough to get on base and use his 40+ stolen base wheels he’ll be in the lineup everyday (I didn’t even mention his defense which some consider to be as good as any outfielder in baseball) leaving Trumbo without a consistent spot in the lineup.

If choosing between these two first basemen I’d take Kila.

People seem down on Ryan Franklin. Would you swap him for Joel Hanrahan or Drew Storen?
– @Cwhitney1

Far too many people seem reluctant to tab Hanrahan this year, and I just don’t get it. Just compare his numbers versus Franklin last season.

Hanrahan: 12.92 K/9, 3.85 K/BB, 1.05 GB/FB
Franklin: 5.82 K/9, 4.20 K/BB, 1.15 GB/FB

Everything being equal, I’ll take the guy who strikes out twice as many guys and doesn’t rely on smoke and mirrors to get outs.

Storen has looked completely lost at times this spring, and the plan in Washington right now is to go with some sort of committee approach which could be led by Sean Burnett. Do yourself a favor and grab Hanrahan. It might now work out, but he is the hurler I’d take without question (for more on why that is see How to Evaluate Relievers).

With Brad Lidge out for a couple months who’s the safer pick – Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras?
– @tjaden_buster

Madson is by far the “safer” selection (see Radiant Relievers). However, apparently no one in the Phillies organization realizes that fact as he has constantly taken a backseat to Brad Lidge for 9th inning work in recent years. With the news about the shoulder injury with Lidge, one that could keep him out of action well into June,  that means Madson will finally be given the chance to close, right? Actually, no. It appears almost certain that the Phillies will call on Jose Contreras to take over closing duties. Contreras was dominant last year with more than a K per inning and an impressive 3.56 K/BB mark, but he is also “reportedly” 39 years old, had never posted a K/BB mark above 2.44 (albeit as a starter), and has four career saves. Contreras appears likely to have more early season value, but Madson is still the “safer” play based on his skill set.

Should I keep Justin Morneau at $18 in a 6×5 mixed. $260 budget? OPS is our 6th batting category.
– @frankdepino

I don’t have much faith in Morneau. He might go out and hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, but it’s a huge risk as he is still working his way back from a concussion. People seem to be thinking he is going to pick right up from last years level of production (.345-18-56 in 81 games), but I’m just not sold. First, he has a career .286 average and has only three seasons in his career over .275 if you include last season. Second, though his OPS was tremendous last year at 1.055, he’s only posted a mark over .880 one time in a full season (.934 in 2006). Third, and most obvious, is his health – will he be able to play everyday? Personally I wouldn’t have spent that much on Morneau, there’s just too much risk for me, but if he plays 145 games he’ll surely produce $18 worth of production.

Ryan Raburn is a better pick up than Logan Morrison?
– @mattextreme

Raburn is a player everyone seems really hot on right now. Do to popular demand, I wrote a piece about him entitled 2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn. Here’s a quick recap. He’s a great power option if he qualifies at second base, but as an outfielder he is merely a depth option. Regardless of where he qualifies, Raburn is still the choice between these two guys in my mind. Morrison could easily have the more productive big league career, but in terms of his fantasy value he is somewhat limited. He won’t steal many bases, he’s only swiped 23 over the past five years, and though he hit 24 homers at Single-A in 2007, he’s managed a mere 29 homers over his last 1,264 at-bats. His stroke is much more doubles oriented at the moment that one that will lift balls into the seats. His plate discipline is a strong suit, he could walk as many times as he strikes out which should allow him to produce an effective batting average, but without power or speed Morrison’s 5×5 value is somewhat limited.

What do you think of Tim Stauffer?
– @johndasher

Stauffer is one of those pitchers who somehow has moved up 35 spots on some people’s draft boards despite never having thrown a pitch in a regular season game. Hell, some people probably didn’t even know who he was two months ago. I’m not one of those guys as I was trumpeting him back in January in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer. Bottom line, there’s a lot to like with this Padres’ hurler.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.