(1) Albert Pujols on cusp of history – yet again.
(2) Stephen Strasburg phenomenal in his first start with Nats.
(3) V-Mart mighty impressive, minus the homers.
(4) Ian Kinsler trying to do something only one other 2B has ever done.
(5) Alex Rios – worth a play in the month of September?
By Ray Flowers
In years past I have taken the 4th of July as a chance to move a bit away from the norm here at BaseballGuys.com. Last year I wrote about Competitive Eating and asked the question about whether or not it was a “sport”? Two years ago I wrote a piece entitled Freedom where I gave some information regarding the Declaration of Independence. Today I’ll follow my usual path and touch on a few topics that aren’t exactly germane to fantasy baseball while mixing in some relevant information.
There have been 46 ball players who were born on July 4th. Currently there is only one who is active – Sergio Santos who was born in Bellflower California in 1983. In that same year of 1983 Dave Righetti tossed a no-hitter against the Red Sox on the 4th. That outing was the Yankees first no-no since Don Larson’s perfect game in the World Series in 1956.
A history lesson. Though we celebrate the Declaration of Independence on July 4th, the resolution was actually adopted on July 2nd. Furthermore, the Declaration wasn’t officially approved until July 9th when it was voted on at the New York Convention. The document was ordered to be “engrossed on parchment” for the means of it becoming an official document on July 19th. The actual signing ceremony was held on August 2nd, 1776 though, despite common perception, it took longer for all 56 delegates to affix their signature on the historic parchment. Moreover, some members of Congress never actually signed the document.
Lou Gehrig’s retirement speech, you know the one in which he said he was the “luckiest man on the face of the earth,” was given on July 4th, 1939. Gehrig died less than two years later of ALS, or Lou Gehrig’s disease, on June 2, 1941. He was 37 years old.
There are five places in the United States that have the name “America.” The largest is American Folk in Utah. It has a population of more than 26,000 people.
Jose Canseco hit his 30th homer on this date in 1999. He would hit only four more homers the rest of the way including just three over his final 115 at-bats before his season ended. All told he had 34 homers and had 95 RBI in just 113 games for the Rays. The effort marked Canseco as the first player in history to hit 30 homers with four different clubs (the others were the Athletics, Rangers and Blue Jays).
There’s a better than one in four chance that the hot dogs you eat, or ate, came from Iowa since there were over 19 million pigs located in the state in March, 2011. The odds are one in three that your baked beans came from North Dakota and if you’re eating corn on the cob there is a nearly 70 percent chance it came from California, Florida, Georgia, New York or Washington. For more fascinating info, click on this link.
July 4th, 1974 was Mike Marshall’s 14th straight appearance for the Dodgers. And you think guys are overworked nowadays? For the year Marshall pitched 208.1 innings… and didn’t make a single start. He won 15 games, lost 12, and racked up 21 saves to lead the NL. He also posted a 2.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on his way to appearing in 106 games, the highest single season total for any pitcher in the history of baseball.
By Ray Flowers
The sun will rise in the morning, Raquel Welch will always be beautiful, and Jose Bautista will be the best hitter in baseball. Wait, what?
I’ve been a broken record for 12 months now. I keep saying “Jose Bautista can’t possibly keep this up,” yet week after week he does. It’s gotten to such a ridiculous point that people are now claiming that Bautista is not only a top-10 fantasy performer but that he is the best hitter in the game right now. Should we replace Lou Gehrig in the photo to the left and put Jose Bautista next to Babe Ruth?
2004-2009 SEASONS
During this period, Bautista’s season bests were 16 homers, 63 RBI, 75 runs scored and a .254 average. For the six years his slash line was .238/.329/.400. During that time the league average as better at .270/.340/.434.
2010 SEASON
.260-54-124-109 with a .995 OPS
Bautista led baseball in homers, was third in RBI and sixth in runs scored. He also became the fourth hitter in baseball history to have a season of 50 homers, 120 RBI, 100 runs, 100 walks and 35 doubles (the others are Babe Ruth, Hack Wilson and Luis Gonzalez).
2011 SEASON
.370-16-27-35-4 with a 1.365 OPS
His effort thus far is simply stunning. Bautista has been so stupendous, and honestly that word doesn’t do his performance justice, that he is on pace to hit hit .370 with 61 homers, 104 RBI, 135 runs scored and 15 steals.
HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE
Bautista’s work in 2011 is so absurd that it’s akin to being hit square in the face with a cast iron skillet.
(1) Bautista is hitting .370 and is on pace for more than 60 homers. Since 1940, only one player has hit .350 with 50 homers in a season. The year was 1957 and that hitter was Mickey Mantle (.365 with 52 homers).
(2) Bautista has an OBP of .516. In the history of baseball there have only been 10 seasons that can match that (minimum of 502 plate appearances). Think about that. Of all the players who have every played, there have only been 10 seasons better than the level that Bautista is currently getting on base.
(3) Bautista has an .849 SLG. In the history of the game only Barry Bonds 2001 season of .863 is better.
(4) Bautista has a 1.365 OPS. In the history of baseball there have only been four seasons that ended with marks higher than that – three by Barry Bonds and one by Babe Ruth.
As much as you all love Bautista, there simply can’t be a single person out there with half a brain that can legitimately claim that Bautista’s name should be mentioned in the same breath as Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth. We can agree on that, right? Come on, be honest. Do you really, if you search deep into the recesses of your being, think that Bautista deserves to have his name mentioned amongst the best hitters that the game of baseball has every produced before?
PERSONAL REVIEW
I’ve written and talked about how preposterous the performance of Bautista is going back to the start of last season. Here are the bullet points.
Bautista has never, not one single time, hit even .265 in a season. NEVER.
Bautista has never, not one single time, posted an OBP of .380 in a season.
As much as we want to say that he’s changed his swing and just figured everything out, we still have six years of below average work and one and a quarter seasons of excellence to review. Don’t forget that Bautista owns a rather average set of career numbers.
In his career his slash line is .250/.351/.472
The average player during his career has posted a line of .267/.337/.426.
PREDICTION
Can he keep up his current pace? I can say with 100 percent certainty that he cannot.
There is no way he hits .370, .350, or even .330. Players just don’t add .100 points to their career batting average, it just doesn’t happen.
Is he going to finish with an OBP, SLG and OPS in the top-10 all-time for a single season? Please.
The question is – how much will he fall? Secondarily, will he be a top-5 performer, a top-10 performer, a top-25 performer? That’s where things get a bit trickier.
Put your thinking cap on and be honest. If I told you that Player A, through a quarter of a season, was producing career bests in AVG/OBP/SLG, home run rate, steal rate, walk rate, K-rate and BABIP, wouldn’t your inclination be to be wary of that level of production continuing?
What if I told you he was hitting .110 points better than ever before?
Or how about if he was on pace to bump his OBP by .138 points?
What about if his SLG was .233 points clear of any previous season?
What about if he was running so frequently that he was on pace to basically double his career best effort?
You’d tell me there was no chance that Player A would be able to keep that up. Given that, why is everyone so willing to throw out logic and common sense when it comes to Jose Bautista?
By Ray Flowers
With the Hall of Fame vote coming up (the results will be released on January 6th), I thought it might be nice to link to the pieces I wrote last year regarding a handful of players that were up for consideration but who failed to be enshrined. Here are those links.
Edgar Martinez – Is There Room for a DH?
HOF – Tim Raines .
Is McGriff Hall Worthy ?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood ?
HOF: Who am I ?
In addition, here is my recap on how the voting actually turned out last year in HOF: What Should Have Been.
As for the vote this year, there seems to be growing support for the candidacy of Jeff Bagwell. Should be be enshrined in the Hall of Fame?
PRO
(1) Bagwell spent his entire 15 year career with the Astros. I know this really doesn’t matter, but in the world of money grubbing by players you have to tip your hat to Bagwell for this accomplishment of staying with one club.
(2) He was the 1991 NL Rookie of the Year, and in 1994 he was named NL MVP. He also finished in the top-10 in MVP voting five times on his way to 2.89 Career MVP Shares, the 35th highest mark in league history.
(3) He was named to four All-Star teams.
(4) He had 1,529 RBI – 45th all-time – and he also scored 1,517 runs, good for 62nd all-time. No player eligible for the Hall of Fame with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI isn’t in the Hall.
(5) He finished his career with a .408 OBP, the 40th best mark ever.
(6) He finished his career with a .540 SLG, the 35th best mark ever.
(7) He finished his career with a .948 OPS, the 21st best mark ever. This is a simply stupendous accomplishment for a guy who spent so much of his career hitting in the Astrodome.
(8) Bagwell led the league in runs three times – with a high of 152. In fact, he scored 143 and 152 runs in 1999-2000, and amongst first basemen only he and Lou Gehrig ever had back-to-back seasons of 140+ runs in the history of baseball.
(9) Bagwell hit .297 with 449 homers, 1,529 RBI, 1,517 runs and an OPS of .948. In the history of baseball, only 10 men have reached each of those totals in their career, and oh what a list it is: Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, Mel Ott, Alex Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, Manny Ramirez, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams and Mr. Bagwell.
CON
(1) He spent his entire career with the Astros. Did anyone notice how great he was since they never saw him play in person or on television?
(2) The strike in 1994 ruined what was shaping up to be a historic season. Bagwell hit .368 with 39 homers, 116 RBI and 104 runs scored… in 110 games. Along the way he led the league in RBI and runs, not to mention SLG (.750) and OPS (1.201). If he had kept that pace up over 160 games he would have produced a line of .368-57-169 with 151 runs scored. If he had produced a season for the ages like that, would more people have taken notice of him?
(3) Despite his tremendous work, other than 1994, was he ever even considered the best first baseman in baseball with players like Fred McGriff, Mo Vaughn, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton around?
VERDICT
Bagwell should be a lock. In addition to being a tremendous person and teammate, he was also a dynamic player. His career totals stack up well against pretty much any man who ever played first base, and it’s not his fault there were so many tremendous hitting first basemen in the game when he played. Bagwell was also widely regarded as one of the best base runners in baseball in his career, even with less than scintillating speed, and that reputation should augment the glowing numbers. The Hall of Fame candidacy of many players has been exaggerated of late, but if Mr. Bagwell is enshrined the voting body will be making a decision that will undoubtedly stand the test of time.
By Ray Flowers
With the World Series barely 24 hours away, I thought I would take a step back and look at some of the numbers that popped out at me when looking at the regular season performance of the men on the diamond.
Daric Barton led the AL with 110 walks, 10 more than the only other fella in the Junior Circuit (Jose Bautista was the other with an even 100 walks). Miguel Cabrera was the only one of the top-5 AL walk getters who whiffed less than 100 times with 95 punchouts on the year. Over in the NL, Albert Pujols walked 103 times, a third straight year of triple-digit walks for the Cardinals’ star. Pujols career worst for Ks is 93, and that was back during his rookie season (2001) though it should be pointed out that for the first time in nine years he struck out more than 70-times with 76 punchouts in 2010.
Adrian Beltre posted a .919 OPS, the best amongst full-time third basemen in baseball this season (Jose Bautista was at .995), and it was the second best mark of his career behind the historic 1.017 mark he posted in 2004. For some historical perspective, the 1.017 mark of Beltre is the the 17th best mark in baseball history for a third basemen.
Did you know that Rodrigo Lopez led baseball with 37 homers allowed? That’s the same total as Roy Oswalt (19) and Tim Lincecum (18) allowed. The AL leader was James Shields and he allowed 34 while twirling on the hill for the Rays. His total was matched by the combined efforts of Felix Hernandez (17) and Dallas Braden (17).
Gio Gonzalez won 15 games which is one more than Francisco Liriano and two more than Felix Hernandez. Those 15 wins also tied Gio for the third most by a lefty in baseball with John Danks, Brett Cecil and C.J. Wilson. The only three lefties with more victories were CC Sabathia (21), David Price (19) and Jon Lester (19).
Josh Hamilton hit .359 with 32 homers and 100 RBI this season. Those three numbers made him just the eighth man in American league history to reach all three of those Triple-Crown marks in the same season. Here are the others: Babe Ruth (seven times), Lou Gehrig (three), Al Simmons (twice), Jimmie Foxx (twice) and then Ted Williams, Norm Cash and Joe DiMaggio all accomplished the feat once.
Shaun Marcum had a wonderful bounce back season after undergoing Tommy John surgery as he posted a 3.64 ERA and 13 victories in 31 starts covering 195.1 innings. However, it’s his WHIP that really stands out as he posted a 1.15 mark, this after a 1.16 mark in 2008. As great as Jon Lester has been the past two years (34 wins, 450 Ks), he has posted WHIP’s of 1.23 and 1.20. How is that for some perspective on how good Marcum has been his last two seasons?
Nick Markakis had hit at least 16 homers in each of his first four seasons before falling well off the map this year with just 12 big flies for the Orioles. Still, he posted a 4th straight season of at least 40-doubles, he hit 45, and that is ties him for the third longest 40-double streak in big league history (the record is jointly held by Joe Medwick and Wade Boggs at 7-straight). If we up the double mark to 43 a season, a total that Markakis has reached each of the past four years, he moves up to second on the list trailing only Joe Medwick’s 5-year run (Tris Speaker also hit 43 doubles in 4-straight years).
By Ray Flowers
Vladimir Guerrero has signed what appears to be a 1-year, $5-$6 million deal with the Texas Rangers (there is also said to be a mutual option for 2011). Was it a good move for the Rangers?
By Ray Flowers
Hall of Fame talk is starting to heat up with the announcement of the 2010 inductees mere days away (January 6th). Some players eligible for the first time include Barry Larkin, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Roberto Alomar (you can read my thoughts on Alomar in Who Am I?). Other players who return hoping to pick up the required 75 percent vote this season include a host of some of the who’s who in the game the past 30 years: Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire and Tim Raines. The last name on this list is who I’m going to focus on in this piece.
Long considered the best leadoff man in the National League during his career, Tim Raines had the misfortune of being the second best leadoff hitter in the game when he played. Mind you, there is no reason to hang ones head when you are #2 behind the man widely considered to be the best ever to fill the roll in Rickey Henderson, but clearly Raines falls behind Henderson in almost every way you can possible think of. Here are each man’s career bests in the 5×5 categories.
Raines: .334-18-68-133-90
Henderson:.325-28-74-146-130
Mind you the numbers are pretty close, but when we move to the realm of their career totals, the gap does widen.
Raines: .294-170-980-1,571-808
Henderson: .279-297-1,115-2,295-1,406
By the way, Henderson scored more runs and stole more bases than any man who ever lived.
Still, like I said at the start, the decision to vote for Raines shouldn’t be about Raines vs. Henderson, it should be about how Raines staked up against the competition. In this respect, he did very well.
Raines was named to 7-straight All-Star teams (1981-87).
Raines finished in the top-10 in AVG four times (led league at .334 in 1986).
Raines was top-10 in runs scored eight times (led league twice – 1983, 1987).
Raines led the NL in steals 4-straight years (1981-84). He also finished in the top-10 seven other times.
Raines finished in the top-10 in hits six times.
Raines finished in the top-10 in triples nine times.
Raines finished in the top-10 in OBP seven times (led league in 1986 at .413).
Raines finished in the top-10 in OPS four times.
Obviously Raines was one of the most effective players in the game for the majority of a decade as he enjoyed some tremendous success with the Expos. All told, that success led to some marks that clearly place him amongst the all-time greats that the game has ever seen.
Raines scored 1,571 runs, the 50th best total ever.
Raines produced 2,605 hits, the 73rd best total ever.
Raines stole 808 bases, the 5th best total ever.
Raines produced 1,636 Runs Created, the 53rd best mark ever.
Raines produced a 280.9 Power-Speed Number, the 28th best mark ever.
Yes, Mr. Raines was one hell of a player.
So why has he failed to break even 25 percent in the HOF vote in his first two go round in the voting process? My guess is that Raines fails in the most basic of comparisons – he simply wasn’t the best at what he did during his career failing to live up to the impossibly high standards of Henderson. Is that fair? Certainly not. There are a plethora of players enshrined in the Hall who may not have been “the best” when they were playing, just think of the comparison of Yankee teammates Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. Should Gehrig have been denied admittance to the Hall since he wasn’t even the best player on his team? Of course not.
In the end I have no idea why Raines has gotten such little respect for what he accomplished as he was clearly the best leadoff man in the National League in the 1980′s. It might take a while for Raines to get his due but I certainly hold out hope that one of these years he will be recognized for what he was, and that was one of the best players every to hit atop of a major league lineup.
DEROSA TO GIANTS?
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
