Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.10

I was away this weekend on another mini vacation (Monterey this time), but baseball never tops. Don’t think a romantic weekend away precluded me from doing my duty though. I sat there, looking at the waves crash on the beach, as I put in my bids for the waiver-wire this week. Here’s how it went down.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Sent Ruben Tejada to the DL. I know big loss right? A big loss though was losing Bryce Harper to the DL, though he didn’t exactly help out the cause last week as the Nationals lamely waited to place him onto the DL with his knee issue (lineups are set weekly in this league with the chance to remove players placed on the DL mid-week). To play shortstop Pedro Florimon Jr. was added for $1. To fill in the outfield void I was able to add Chris Denorfia for $1. Surprised as all heck to get him for only $1 in a 15 teamer. He’s hit .303 on the year and .339 the past three weeks. Maybe the fact that it’s an OBP league knocked his value down, but .349 is still playable. My final move was to drop Tyler Flowers, sorry cuz, to add Wellington Castillo for $1. Flowers just wasn’t getting it done. No power, poor OBP, little run production. Time to cut the cord. I had bid on Jason Castro two weeks ago, but my $6 bid was beat at $7.
Notable bids: Trevor Rosenthal $8 (I bid $3). Really surprised he went for that much. Daniel Descalso ($2), Jason Bay ($2), Tyler Skaggs ($1), Chris Archer ($1), and Christian Yelich ($1).

LABR (12 team, AL-only): I dropped Chris Nelson to add Kevin Youkilis back into the mix. Remember, in this league that if you remove a player from your starting lineup that isn’t injured, you lose him. Therefore, I lost Nelson to the wire (injured players have to be activated within two weeks or you lose them to the waiver-wire). It’s a restrictive league in terms of the moves you can make. At least Aaron Harang and Ubaldo Jimenez have finally started to turn things around on the hill for my club.
Notable bids: David Lough ($6), Freddy Garcia ($5), Alexander Torres ($4), Chris Dickerson ($4)

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

FSTA (13 team mixed): My DL is six players deep, or it was six deep as HanRam and Youkilis are both on the cusp of returning to active duty. Here’s what I did in terms of adding players. I dropped Ryan Roberts and added Yan Gomes ($19). Mauer/Martin are a solid duo at C, but I took a shot that Gomes will continue to be productive and play regularly with Carlos Santana being a DH/1B type a good deal of the time for the Indians. Denard Span isn’t stealing bases and he’s hit .245 over the past month. He went away for Matt Joyce ($27). For those that haven’t noticed Joyce is hitting .310 with 16 RBIs in his last 23 games. My final move was to drop WHIP killer Felix Doubront for Drew Smyly. It’s a forward thinking move since Smyly has little value as a middle reliever though he’s been great this season with a 2.08 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 36 Ks in 34.2 innings this season.
Notable bids: Nick Franklin ($211), Michael Wacha ($123), Ike Davis ($100), Chris Archer ($73), Rex Brothers ($71)

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Will the pain ever end? Probably not. Adam Dunn continues to stink. B.J. Upton showed some slight up of late but he’s stunk. Juan Pierre? Garbage. Austin Jackson on DL. Rajai Davis on DL. Great outfield huh? On the hill Axford lost his job eons ago and now Chris Perez is on the DL. I know I’m complaining, but that sinking of my OF and my closers has killed my team. Jeremy Guthrie went bye-bye while I added Edinson Volquez for $1 (Guthrie’s hot start finally evaporated). I also added J.J. Putz. He could be back in a bit, and as you saw, I’m grasping at straws for help in the bullpen. The cost was letting go of David Hernandez. I added both guys for $1.
Notable bids: Nick Franklin ($29), Michael Wacha ($15), Chris Archer ($12), Jeff Locke ($5), Vinnie Pestano ($3), Gordon Beckham ($2)

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire, and the open waiver-wire blows chunks. Example of what happened this week. We’ve got a fella in this league who lives fantasy baseball while the rest of us are living life. As a result, he’s made 61 moves as of this writing, no one else has made more than 25 (I’m at 17 moves), and he always gets the players that are called up. Take a look at the two most recent moves he made as he added Luke Gregerson and Rex Brothers. He got both the hot adds at reliever cause of his dilligence. Amazingly, he’s only in 7th place. I dropped Brandon Morrow when he was placed on the DL and added Yan Gomes to help cover for the struggling Wellington Castillo. Since I didn’t do a write up last weekend cause I was away on a mini vacation I should also note that I added Domonic Brown and Michael Wacha last week.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Dustin Ackley was demoted. Great. I was able to slot in Martin Prado at second base and moved Hanley Ramirez off the DL to the corner infield position to cover for Prado in this league. Rickey Nolasco was added to the mix at a cost of $23. Hey, I needed an arm to cover for Brandon Morrow who was placed on the DL. It’s a never ending marathon of injury and healthy players isn’t it?
Notable bids: Yasel Puig ($202), Vinnie Pestano ($107), Luke Gregerson ($106), John Lackey ($37), Tyler Skaggs ($37), Shaun Marcum ($26)

FANBALL (13 team mixed): David Phelps is dealing with some arm woes, and though he’s still expected to pitch this week I wanted a healthy arm. In came Ricky Nolasco for $3. I bet Nolasco tanks now that I’ve added him in about half my leagues. I also let Raul lbanez go for Lucas Duda. The Mets’ outfielder has two homers and six RBIs in his last 10 games.
Notable bids: Luke Gregerson ($17), Rex Brothers ($5), Anthony Rendon ($4), Tyler Skaggs ($3), Zach Cozart ($3), Jason Bay ($3)
By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Relief Pitchers: Hits

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

RELIEF PITCHER: HITS

There were three relievers, outside my top-20, that I highlighted as must adds in The Draft Guide. If you listened to me and added these three relievers, on the cheap mind you, at the end of the season you would have been left with the following scintillating numbers:

11 wins, 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 246 Ks (11.48 K/9), 71 SVs in 193 IP

Oh, and I suggested taking all of these relievers as early as anyone in the industry so you were able to get phenomenal value if you did as instructed (the first man listed was the only one regularly going in the top-250 according to ADP numbers in standard mixed leagues).

Kenley Jansen (#22): Jansen saved 25 games while dominating as heartily as any hurler in the game (a recent procedure should have also cleared up the ongoing concerns with his heart condition). Just take a look at these numbers: .146 BAA, 0.85 WHIP, 13.71 K/9. It seems like the only thing that can hold him back is his health.

Tyler Clippard (#29): The Nationals righty saved 32 games stepping in when Drew Storen went down with injury, and he also added 13 holds for good measure. Clippard had a rough month of September that muddied his ratios but he still had a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with well over a K per inning (84 in 72.2 IP). Year after year he just gets batters out.

Sergio Romo (#31): I’ve said, over an over an over again, that Romo is one of the 10 best relievers in baseball. Still, when Brian Wilson went down with injury the Giants turned to Santiago Casilla to close (he ended the year with 25 saves). After Casilla finally slowed down, Romo turned into 9th inning gold. No,make that platinum. Romo had 23 holds and 14 saves (in 15 chances), and posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 10.25 K/9 an a 6.30 K/BB ratio. Nothing he did this year changed my mind at all.

Some other hits… and you know they might be few and far between as the relief position this year had more turnover than just about any season I can ever remember.

Huston Street (#12): He was limited to “only” 23 saves because of injury, but he was likely the most dominating closer in baseball not named Chapman, Kimbrel, Rodney or Jansen. Street struck out 10.85 batters per nine innings, posted a 1.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and allowed 17 hits, seventeen, in 39 innings of work. Only two other pitchers in the history of the game allowed fewer than his 3.92 hits per nine innings in a season of 35 innings – Mike Adams (3.41 in ’09) and Craig Kimbrel (3.88 in ’12).

Rafael Betancourt (#17): I’ve been talking him up for years, and he finally got the chance to be a huge fantasy contributor with his 9th inning role with the Rockies. Rafael closed the door on opponents 31 times, had a 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, struck out 57 batters in 57.2 innings and once again impressed with his 4.75 K/BB ratio. Money.

Grant Balfour (#27): He started out the year as the closer, struggled a wee bit, and lost his job to Ryan Cook. Balfour eventually regained the role and went on an amazing run in the second half (0.76 WHIP, .131 BAA over his last 33 games). All told he saved 24 games, had 15 holds, registered nearly a K per inning (72 in 74.2 IP), and dominated with a 2.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Greg Holland (#36): Seven wins, nine holds and 16 saves for a guy who was chosen in the reserve rounds is pretty darn impressive. Add in his dominating 12.22 K/9 mark and we can overlook the unsightly 4.57 walk per nine mark he posted. If he can cut that walk rate down to the league average, this is a guy who could be a top-15 RP next year.

Jonathan Broxton (#39): He stepped up when Joakim Soria need Tommy John surgery, and on the year Broxton saved 27 game between the Royals and Reds. The 2.48 ERA was impressive, but it should be noted that Broxton, who owns a career K/9 mark of 10.96, struck out only 6.98 batters per nine this season as he decided to just get ground ball after ground ball this season (his 2.22 GB/FB ratio blew away his career 1.49 mark).

Luke Gregerson (#46): Always one of my favorite final round grabs, Gregerson was allowed to do something he had never before been tasked with – working the 9th inning. He only filled in when Street was out, but after three saves in three years Gregerson’s owners weren’t complaining about his nine saves and 24 holds. Luke posted his best ERA (2.39), and that 1.09 WHIP will play in any league. An extremely stable skill set.

Glen Perkins (#50): Bet you that Perkins wasn’t drafted in your 12 team mixed league. At the end of the campaign he had 16 saves and 11 holds, while giving career bests in WHIP (1.04), K/9 (9.98) and BB/9 (2.05). A sneaky in-season add that paid huge dividends.

 

By Ray Flowers

Review: NL LABR

The worst team of all-time.

The worst ever drafted.

How could I possibly be considered an expert drafting this team?

I heard some variance of the above in emails, in tweets, on my show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. I heard it from everyone. E V E R Y O N E. I left money on the table (a mistake I owned up to in my review of the draft). I had a corner infielder – Derrek Lee – who didn’t take an at-bat all season. I had Placido Polanco have the worst season of his career. So how did the worst team ever drafted turn out? With three days left in the season the team was tied for first place…

Wilin Rosario, who drew a ton of heat for my $8 bid, blasted 28 long balls with 71 RBIs in a dominating season.

Garrett Jones socked 27 long balls with 86 RBIs – both career bests (the runs batted in tied his total from 2010).

Daniel Murphy did exactly what I expected him to do (.291-6-65-62-10) while qualifying at multiple spots.

Rafael Furcal had 477 at-bats, a three year high. He wasn’t great, but he was pretty solid (.264-5-49-69-12).

Chris Nelson, who I was made fun of mercilessly for drafting, hit .301 with nine homers and 53 RBIs.

So much for my infield being “pathetic” as most thought.

As I said after the draft, the strength of my team was always going to be my outfield. And it was.

Andrew McCutchen: Should finish near the top of the NL MVP voting thanks to his out of sight effort that included a .327 batting average, 31 homers, 96 RBIs, 107 runs scored and 20 steals.

Dexter Fowler: Hit .300 with 13 homers, 12 steals, 53 RBIs and 72 runs scored.

Alfonso Soriano: 32 HRs, 108 RBIs. I was laughed at for drafting him.

Carlos Quentin: 16 HRs, 46 RBIs. Knew he would be hurt, but 86 games was a 5-year low. If only he had gotten to 115…

Chris Young: Worst season of his career hitting .231-14-41-36-8 from a player who averaged 24 HRs, 81 RBIs, 92 runs and 25 steals in 2010-11. He was literally half the player in 2012 that he had been the previous two years.

Nate McLouth: Even though it’s an NL-only league, you can hold on to players who are dealt to the other league. I held on to him all year and that really paid off in the end as he took off with the Orioles (.268-7-18-35-12 in a mere 55 games).

How was the club on the hill?

Madison Bumgarner: 16 wins, 3.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 191 Ks
Tommy Hanson: 13-10, 4.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 161 Ks
Wandy Rodriguez: 12-13, 3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 Ks
Gio Gonzalez: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 207 Ks
Jeff Samardzija: 9-13, 3.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 180 Ks

Rafael Betancourt: 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 31 saves
Sergio Romo: 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 14 saves
Luke Gregerson: 2.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9 saves

Reserve picks – Two played out.

Ross Detwiler: 10 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 105 Ks
Logan Forsythe: .283, 6 HRs, 8 SBs, 45 runs

So how did it all turn out?

CONGRATS: Steve Moyer of Baseball Info Solutions who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 2/13. I couldn’t catch Steve but turns out the worst team in the history of fantasy baseball, the team I dubbed the Little Engine That Could, almost brought it home. So there everyone.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August28, 2012

(1) Erik Bedard released by Pirates. Kevin Correia to take over.

(2) Mark Teixeira out 1-2 weeks with calf strain.

(3) Felix Hernandez tosses 5th shutout. Amazing in second half.

(4) Tyler Colvin hot again.

(5) Brett Jackson driving ball into seats. Still striking out.

(6) Luke Gregerson Padres new closer?

(7) Dice-K on waivers. Roy Oswalt passes through waivers.

 

By Ray Flowers

Timing is Everything

People try to play fantasy baseball like they try to time the stock market. If it works, an it rarely does, you look like a genius. In the long run, most of the time if you just stand pat, provided of course that you have the right commodities in your portfolio, you will come out ahead. Today I’ll give my thoughts on which ballplayers you’ll want to hold on to, and which might end up disappointing you with only a moderate return on your investment.

I still find it rather surprising that so many people seem so willing to toss away Michael Bourn in trade offers. I know he has no homers and seven RBI, but folks, do you realize how good he has been otherwise? Besides hitting .333 this speedster also has a .404 OBP and he’s on pace for 108 runs scored and 59 steals. Deal him at your own peril.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .342 with 15 RBI, 22 runs scored and six steals for the Cardinals reminding everyone that he can still be a dynamic talent when healthy. However, and you know how I hate to bring bad news, the guy has failed to appear in 100 games in three of the past four years so I wouldn’t be at all adverse to anyone trading him while they can because things are bound to get ugly at some point.

Ryan Howard (Achilles), finally, took batting practice Monday for the first time since February. Howard still doesn’t have a target date for a return, but the prevailing wisdom is that he will be back in action, barring any more setbacks of course, in late May or early June. Given his rate of production the past two years – he’s averaged 32 homers and 112 RBI the past two campaigns – if he starts action on June 1st he’d be able to play in 2/3 of the Phillies games this season. That would equate to about 21 homers and 75 RBI. Of course, that’s if he hits the ground running and matches his level of production from the past two seasons. I’m not sure that is going to happen given how much time he has missed (for more on Howard see his Player Profile).

Ask around and people will tell you that Andrew McCutchen has been a major disappointment. I can’t sit here and say I’m not leaning in that direction myself, but let’s keep things in perspective. He’s one hit from batting .300 at .298 which would be a career best. His current .356 OBP is just under his career .364 rate, and that’s despite the fact that his walk rate has gone down by about 40 percent from his career level. He’s also on pace for 29 thefts after averaging 26 his first three big league seasons. The reason he’s been disappointing is that he’s gone 94 at-bats without a home run leading him to a paltry seven RBI. He’s also scored only seven times since the Pirates offense has been so anemic. I’m on record though as a big time McCutchen supporter, an I’m still in that camp.

There’s only one more show for Smash. Who will be named Marilyn – Karen Cartwright or Ivy Lynn? I can’t believe that I just admitted to the world that I actually watch Smash. Go Karen.

Remember when you were panicked because Brandon Morrow had a 4.50 ERA and just nine strikeouts in his first three starts? Hopefully you held on tight to the fire balling righty as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over his last three starts. He’s also struck out 20 batters and walked just one in stamping himself as an arm to watch this season.

Sounds like Brad Penny faked an injury to his shoulder to get out of his two year deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in the Japan League (tests showed no structural damage). Count me as shocked. That guy is a joke, has been for years. Regardless, it’s only a matter of time before some team takes the plunge and signs Penny even though his performance since 2008 has been flat out bad: 31-33, 5.11 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 1.64 K/BB.

Dale Thayer got the save for the Padres Monday night. Andrew Cashner, thought by many to be the presumptive favorite for 9th inning work with Huston Street out with a lat injury, threw 39 pitches Sunday so he was likely unavailable meaning we still don’t really know who will serve as the 9th inning arm (Luke Gregerson could also get some work). Cashner has a huge arm, but he also often has no idea where the ball is going. In 13.2 innings he struck out 12 batters but he’s also walked 12. That’s ugly. Thayer, who has more than 170 minor league saves in his minor league career, has walked only one batter in 31 big league innings as the anti-Cashner. You have to think that Cashner who is younger and has the bigger arm will get a crack at the role, but Thayer is there to pick up the pieces in the even that Cashner struggles.

 

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Top-50 Relief Pitchers

Photo by Nick Fisher

 

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a collaborative effort with Paul Sporer. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers and relievers.

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

In this entry I’ll breakdown my top-50 relievers for 2011.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target as values in drafts. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-50 RELIEVERS

1 Brian Wilson

2 Joakim Soria

3 Heath Bell

4 Carlos Marmol

5 Jonathan Papelbon

6 Jonathan Axford

7 Neftali Feliz

8 Mariano Rivera

9 Andrew Bailey

10 Joel Hanrahan

11 Chris Perez

12 Jose Valverde

13 Matt Thornton

14 Jonathan Broxton

15 Huston Street

16 Brad Lidge

17 J.J. Putz

18 Francisco Rodriguez

19 Leo Nunez

20 Ryan Franklin

21 Drew Storen

22 Francisco Cordero

23 Craig Kimbrel

24 Joe Nathan

25 Frank Francisco

26 Jake McGee

27 Kevin Gregg

28 Fernando Rodney

29 Brandon League

30 Brandon Lyon

31 Hong-Chih Kuo

32 Ryan Madson

33 Luke Gregerson

34 Aroldis Chapman

35 Matt Capps

36 Jonny Venters

37 Rafael Soriano

38 Evan Meek

39 Kenley Jansen

40 David Aardsma

41 Daniel Bard

42 Mike Adams

43 Chris Sale

44 Scott Downs

45 Koji Uehara

46 Joba Chamberlain

47 Brian Fuentes

48 Kyle Farnsworth

49 Alexi Ogando

50 Tyler Clippard

 

* I’d feel really comfortable with any of the top-15 closers on this list, then things start to get a bit spotty.

* Brad Lidge (16) has the full trust of his manager Charlie Manuel, so as long as he is healthy, even if his ratios are sub par, you have to think 30 saves are a given.

* J.J. Putz (17) has the skills to be an elite reliever – if he’s healthy.

* K-Rod (18) is a disaster off the field. On it, there are concerns about whether or not the Mets will limit his work late in the year since he has a clause in his contract that will give him $17.5 million in 2012 if he finishes 55 games this season.

* Leo Nunez (19) has all kinds of questions surrounding him after a late season collapse last year. Still, the guy got more than a K per inning last season and had a GB/FB ratio of 1.79. If he repeats those numbers, success will follow.

* Francisco Cordero (22) has Aroldis Chapman (34) to worry about, but I would be more concerned about the fact that his K/9 rate has fallen off a cliff. Look at his marks the past four years: 12.22, 9.98, 7.83 and 7.31.

* Young arms with strong skill sets can be found in the 20′s highlighted by Craig Kimbrel (23) and Jake McGee (26). Can Kimbrel throw enough strikes to hold off Jonny Venters (36) in Atlanta? Will McGee open the year as the Rays’ closer? I don’t know as the club might go with Kyle Farnsworth (48), but I expect McGee to have the better year.

* Good luck finding betters arms than hurlers 31-34: Hong-Chih Kuo, Ryan Madson, Luke Gregerson and Aroldis Chapman.

* Don’t forget about Mike Adams (42) in San Diego. I’m not certain that if something happened to Heath Bell that it wouldn’t be he, and not Gregerson, who would pitch the 9th inning.

* If the Rangers do the unexpected and ask Neftali Feliz (7) to fill a starting role, Alexi Ogando (49) could get a long look as the 9th inning arm since the club sent Frank Francisco (25) to the Blue Jays this offseason.

CATEGORY TARGETS

I’m a man of my word. On The Drive yesterday on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (5-8 PM EST, Sirius211, XM147), we received a call from Jeff in North Carolina. He asked me what “targets” he should look to attain when building a team in a 12-team league (i.e. how many homers he would need to hit to win a 12-team league). As I said on the air I would get him an answer, and here it is in the form of a link to an article written by fantasy baseball expert Shawn Childs. Enjoy.

By Ray Flowers

How to Evaluate Relievers

About two weeks ago I wrote How to Evaluate A Player in which I described a quick and easy way to evaluate players performance. That piece dealt only with hitters. In today’s article I’ll detail some of the key points you’ll want to consider when you are attempting to evaluate relief pitchers for the 2011 fantasy baseball season.

Target Skills not Roles.
This is the hardest idiom to abide by on draft day because though it inherently makes sense to target skills, it doesn’t always result in the most fantasy value. Let me address that “fantasy value” issue first.

There are five main categories in fantasy baseball for pitchers: wins, ERA, WHIP, Ks and saves. Obviously only reliever can pick up saves, and that marks “closers” as premium targets on draft day. However, there are many issues associated with this.

(1) Closers don’t hold their roles all season in many cases making it a volatile position to predict with any certainty.

(2) There are always a handful of guys who rack up large save totals that come completely out of nowhere (think John Axford who had 24 saves last year despite having only 7.2 innings of big league experience prior to the start of the season).

(3) Closers often rack up saves despite pedestrian results.

Francisco Cordero had 40 saves despite a 1.43 WHIP.
Bobby Jenks had 27 saves with a 4.44 ERA.
Ryan Franklin had 27 saves with a mere 5.82 K/9 mark.

(4) Having success closing games year-to-year is much harder than you would think. If a guy had 20 saves he’d probably be considered a low end second reliever, right? Do you know how many hurlers have saved 20 games in each of the past three seasons? The answer is only 12. Simply, it’s a very volatile, and variable, position – closing that is.

(5) Pitching the ninth inning to gain a save is a random event that is nearly impossible to predict. Factors that you have to take into account include:

* Did the offense score enough to gain the lead, without scoring too much to get past the limit for saves (3 run lead).

* Which reliever will be called on? Will the manager go with his best arm? Will he play the righty/lefty matchup game? Will he lean on the veteran who has been there and done that even though he hasn’t been pitching well? Will the manager give his reliever some rope and allow him to remain in the game if he lets people on base?

And that last point is really the main point of this whole exercise. In many cases its patently obvious which reliever a team should turn to in the 9th inning. However, that doesn’t always mean that team does the right thing and slots their most effective reliever in a 9th inning role. The bottom line is that there is no way to predict the opportunities than any reliever will be given, nor is there any way to get inside the head of a manager to understand how he will deploy his pitchers from game to game.

Therefore, this is what I recommend – target skills not roles.

Skills aren’t susceptible to the whim of a manager.
Skills aren’t dependent on the game situation.
Skills pay the bills.

What skills should you look for? A quick primer follows.

Target at least a 7.50 K/9 mark.
You need a reliever who can get out of a jam with a punchout. Also, the fewer balls that are put in play, the better the chance is that the batter won’t produce a hit (a brilliant statement I know).

Target a BB/9 mark below 3.00.
You can’t have a reliever come into a game searching for the strike zone.

Those two simply targets may not seem like much, but adhering to just those two categories and their benchmarks will likely help you from rostering relievers that will not hurt your ratios. Amongst relievers that tossed 60-innings last year, here are the only names that racked up a K/9 mark over 7.50 with a BB/9 mark under 3.00.

Casey Janssen
Matt Thornton
Sean Burnett
Rafael Soriano
Joaquin Benoit
Luke Gregerson
Joakim Soria
Neftali Feliz
Darren Oliver
Kyle Farnsworth
Edward Mujica
Matt Belise
Billy Wagner
Sergio Romo
Rafael Betancourt
Hong-Chih Kuo
Joba Chamberlain

That’s a pretty darn small list isn’t it?

There is obviously more to pitching than this simply review, but in terms of relief pitchers this type of data is extremely relevant. Also make sure you keep an eye on the GB/FB column, I’d look for numbers of 1.25 or better there if you can (big flies are murder on relievers).

At the end of the day there are very few “locks” at the closers position. After the first 20 or so guys are off the board I think it makes more sense to roster high skill relievers with major upside versus slacker relievers who are lined up to begin the year as the closer for their team. Sooner or later the lack of skills will doom those guys to mediocrity while your “skills guys” should continue to have success no matter what role they are asked to fill .

By Ray Flowers

For the Record Books

Ubaldo Jimenez finally had a hiccup last night, and whether it was because of the flu or just the regression gods coming to the fore, the bottom line is that for the first time this season he allowed more than three runs in a game (six earned runs in 5.2 innings) to cause his ERA to skyrocket from 1.15 to 1.60. Ubaldo deserves all the accolades he is receiving this year, but I thought I would bring up a comparison that I’m fairly certain no one has ever made anywhere, so consider yourself pretty special if you are reading this (I think of myself as “special” all the time, though I might be the only one who shares that sentiment other than my mommy). Let me compare Ubaldo’s work this season with a mystery pitcher to show you just how good Pitcher X has been.

Ubaldo: 1.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 2.64 K/BB, .202 BAA in 107 IP
Pitcher X: 2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11.25 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, .191 BAA in 112 IP

Who is this marvelous Pitcher X? It’s Luke Gregerson of the Padres. We are obviously talking about Gregerson’s totals since the start of the 2009 season, but isn’t it pretty amazing that he has been so dominating in his time in the Pads pen? Not to continue to belittle Ubaldo in any way by comparing him to hurlers who have actually been at least his equal, but here is Ubaldo in another comparison.

Ubaldo: 1.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 2.64 K/BB, .202 BAA in 107 IP
Pitcher Y: 1.80 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.82 K/9, 3.77 K/BB, .201 BAA in 100 IP

Pitcher Y is the Marlins’ Josh Johnson. In case you missed it, and many have with all the press floated to Ubaldo this year, Johnson has done something that only two other men in the history of the game in the modern ERA have accomplished – he has tossed 8-straight games of at least six innings pitched with one or zero earned run allowed. The others to accomplish the feat are J.R. Richard who did it eight times in 1979 and Bob Gibson did it 11 times in his magical 1968 season. Take that Ubaldo.

It has nothing to do with baseball, but did you get a load of that match at Wimbledon that finally ended with John Isner defeating Nicloas Mahut 70 games to 68 in the fifth set? The match took 11 hours and five minutes, and the fifth set alone broke the all-time record for the longest match ever played. I haven’t had that much fun watching or playing tennis since I used to play home run derby at my local court with my friends. I was quite the power hitter by the way pounding balls into the pool. I never understood why that the court wasn’t a foot longer since every groundstroke I put any pace on always seems to go eight inches long.

How good is Stephen Strasburg? I spoke to his dominance yesterday in Around the Horn, June 23rd, but here is something I didn’t mention in that video – his total of 41 Ks in his first four starts breaks the previous four start record to start a career of Herb Score who struck out 40 batters in his first four starts back in 1955.

I’m going to central park tonight where I live to listen to some live salsa music. Think I should bust out my dance moves. You’re right, I’ll probably just drink some Sangria instead.

Entering play on Thursday, do you know who was first at the catcher’s position in homers (12) and RBI (38)? If you guessed this one you spend way too much time staring at box scores (don’t worry, I doubt you do it more than I do which tells you all you need to know about my exciting life). No, it’s not Victor Martinez (9 HR, 37 RBI) or Brian McCann (8 HR, 30 RBI), and you certainly know its not Joe Mauer since he has only gone deep three times in 236 at-bats. Nope, the answer is none other than John Buck of the Blue Jays. Don’t forget to pick up your jaw off the floor.

By Ray Flowers