The Strikeout: Starters

You are all aware that I host The Fantasy Drive each day on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio right? If you weren’t aware I do, and you can catch the fantasy sports talk from 5-8PM EDT daily, Monday through Friday, on channels XM 147 and Sirius 211. Now that the infomercial section of the article is over, let’s get to the relevance of why I brought this up.

As part of my work with SiriusXM, I was tasked with putting together a 10-15 minute segment on the art of strikeout. When the wheels started turning I was able to work up a list of some rather interesting bits o’ information, so I thought I would share that with you all in print as well.

The 2010 Season

I don’t know if pitchers are getting better, if batters are getting worse, if it was a one anomaly, or if the removal of PED’s from the game has helped to level the playing field, but 2010 was a very good year for pitchers.

* In 2010 pitchers posted a K/9 mark of 7.13. That was the highest mark of the 21st century (from 2000-10 the big league average has been 6.67).

* The last five years the K/9 rate has gone up from 6.38 to 7.13 per nine.

The Targets

What numbers would you look to as “targets” when it comes to the strikeout? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Don’t overlook guys who didn’t post huge strikeout totals as it’s much more important to pay attention to the context of a strikeout, in this case the K/9 mark of a hurler. A perfect example is Bud Norris. He “only” had 158 Ks last year, but that’s because he pitched only 153.2 innings. On the other hand, his K/9 rate was as exceedingly impressive 9.25. Look at the ratio versus the raw K-total, it’s much more valuable when trying to discern who the strikeout aces are.

(2) In the fantasy game, I wouldn’t target a starter with a K/9 mark under 6.50 or a reliever under 7.50. Starters can have success below that level without a doubt – especially extreme ground ballers are but one example of the type of hurler that could still succeed with mediocre strike rates – but I’d prefer a staff of guys like Bud Morris and Brandon Morrow over the Derek Lowe’s and Jake Westbrook’s of the world every time.

(3) Even though this is about the strikeout, make sure to look at walks as well. Heat does you no good if you can’t throw strikes (hello Oliver Perez). In 2010 pitchers posted a 2.17 K/BB mark thanks to the extra strikeouts and a 5-year low of 3.28 in the BB/9 column. As a result, the 2.17 K/BB mark was the best in the 21st century.

Starting Pitchers

With that primer, here is a list of the top strikeout artists, as defined by their K/9 marks, from the 2010 season.

K/9 Amongst qualifiers – minimum 162 IP

9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.36 Felix Hernandez
8.32 Adam Wainwright
8.28 James Shields
8.27 Dan Haren
8.22 Wandy Rodriguez

If we drop down the innings pitched mark a bit lower, here is the list that we come up with (players in italics are new additions to the above list).

K/9 – minimum 100 IP

10.95 Brandon Morrow
9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.52 Manny Parra
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.25 Bud Norris
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
9.04 Jhoulys Chacin
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.41 Hisanori Takahashi

Mr. Morrow ends up leading baseball with a K/9 rate of 10.95. If he were able to maintain that rate over 190 innings that would lead to 231 strikeouts, the same total that Tim Lincecum posted which was the best mark in the NL. However, Brandon Morrow, Manny Parra, Bud Norris and Jhoulys Chacin, while major strikeout contributors, all posted a BB/9 mark over 4.00, so they certainly come with risk.

Starters to Target

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010.

Roy Halladay
Tommy Hanson
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Mat Latos
Jered Weaver
Zack Greinke
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
Shaun Marcum
Colby Lewis
Dan Haren
Justin Verlander
Francisco Liriano
Adam Wainwright
Roy Oswalt
Scott Baker
Ted Lilly

Here are five more who made the list who might not have been obvious considering the other aspects of their pitching performance last season..

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlin’s hurler has a 4.81 ERA past two years despite some excellent work on the hill. His K/9 mark of 8.98 is 7th best in baseball in that time, while his 4.44 K/BB ratio is 4th best. Buy low on him if you can.

Travis Wood: The rookie had a rather solid K/9 mark of 7.54, and with a lack of walks he was able to post a strong 3.31 K/BB.

James Shields: – Despite 15 Loses and 5.18 ERA, Shields actually posted the best K/9 of his career at 8.28. Shields also posted a strong 3.67 K/BB, just slightly off his career 3.70 mark. Buy him at a discount this year, he’s as good as he has ever been.

Hiroki Kuroda: The Dodgers’ depth starter had a 7.29 K/9 (the best of career), which led to a similarly impressive 3.31 K/BB mark. He isn’t a fantasy ace, but he is a fine option to round out a staff.

Jason Hammel : The Rockies’ righty had a career best 7.14 K/9 and a solid 3.00 K/BB (it was 3.17 in ’09). He will be a bargain on draft day after posting a poor 4.81 ERA in ’10.

Solid Pitchers to Avoid
Ground ball types: Carl Pavano (4.76 K/9), Mike Pelfrey (4.99), Bronson Arroyo (5.05), Dallas Braden (5.28),Fausto Carmona (5.31), Tim Hudson (5.47), Jake Westbrook (5.68), Brett Cecil (6.10), Derek Lowe (6.32).

By Ray Flowers

A Day at the Beach

You’re probably thinking to yourself – why the eye candy above? A couple of reasons actually. First, the one on the left is my girlfriend. OK, maybe not (the lady I’m seeing is actually even better looking). Secondly, I’m actually “off” work today so I plan on going to the beach to work on my tan and there is always a chance that I’ll run into a bunch of bikini clad babes so I’m just trying to get into character. Third, the majority of my readers are dudes, and therefore I’m sure they won’t be complaining about two hotties in bikinis. Why am I writing this entry if I have the day off? Well, I guess I’m just a glutton for punishment. Either that or the Mai Tai hasn’t kicked in yet so I’ve yet to realize I don’t have to write today.

Bryce Harper is almost certain to be the first player selected in the MLB Entry Draft later today. In case you’ve recently been in Iceland without a television set or access to the internet or radio, Harper is seen as a can’t miss kid with a huge arm and a potentially once in a generation type power bat. He got his GED so he could skip a year of high school, went on to demolish junior college pitching for a year (.442-29-89), and the Nationals see the unlimited potential his swing brings as reason a plenty to take him first overall The Nats may choose to move the kid out from behind the dish to the outfield in order to prolong his career. If they do make that decision his road to the bigs will likely be much shorter than if he were to continue to don the tools of ignorance

Why do the police ask you ‘did you make complete stop’ when they pull you over? Did I miss something about the definition of “stop” that requires the word “complete” to be placed in front of it?

Paul Konerko might be on the trading block according to Buster Posey, I mean Buster Olney. Whether or not that is true we all know that a bunch of veterans will be moved between now and the trade deadline. Hopefully, if you plan in an NL or AL only league, you can hold on to players after they are traded, because if you can’t the balance of power in your league will certainly be affected when the players are moved. Unfortunately not all leagues allow you to hold on to players, and that always presents a huge problem. My advice? Spend your FAAB money early and often. Fred Lewis isn’t great, but 400 ABs from him will be less costly than adding that big power bat that ends up being moved at the deadline, and in those 400 ABs he’ll likely produce enough value to be on par with what you’ll get from a 200 at-bat deadline add.

Where is the sun right now? Come on sun, I need you to lend a hand when I get to the beach.

Two arms I was high on coming into the year that got off to slow starts are starting to round into form. For the Brewers, Manny Parra had 10 Ks on Sunday and seems to have solidified a spot for himself in the starting rotation. He has been a K-machine this season with 37 strikeouts in 36.1 innings, but he still needs to curtail issuing free passes (4.71 BB/9) to truly reach his potential and to remain in the starting rotation. The other arm belongs to local boy Brandon Morrow (he was born in Santa Rosa and went to the University of California). The hard throwing righty owns a dynamic and prolific strike inducing wing that has led to 74 Ks in just 64 IP (that is the sixth best mark in the AL). In his last two outings he has walked a total of three batters over 14 innings as he has allowed just two runs while posting nine strikeouts. Just like Parra the key is throwing strikes, and when he does, like he is right now, he can be a pretty dominating force.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May17, 2010

(1) Edwin Encarnacion activated off DL as Travis Snider is placed on it.

(2) Orioles get good news with Brian Roberts and Mike Gonzalez.

(3) Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury still working way back.

(4) Nick Johnson has wrist surgery – out 4-6 weeks.

(5) Jimmy Rollins back from DL.

(6) Mark DeRosa hopes to return next week and be effective.

(7) Doug Davis to DL giving Manny Parra a chance to start.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April26, 2010

(1) Ryan Howard backs up the money truck, and it’s fully loaded.

(2) Ian Kinsler to hit 5th upon return.

(3) Red Sox lineup in flux.

(4) Miguel Olivo gaining more looks at expense of Chris Iannetta.
*NOTE: After video was made, the club demoted Iannetta to Triple-A in the hopes that he will relax and rediscover his stroke.

(5) Jeff Suppan out of rotation, replaced by Chris Narveson.

(6) D’backs offense looks good with Johnson-Young-Reynolds.

By Ray Flowers

Down the Stretch: Pitchers

Today it’s all about pitchers. I just started typing some random bits of information that caught my fancy, and when I looked up I realized that everything I penned had to do with guys who take the hill. So without further ado, here are five men, who throw the ball for a living, that I thought you might enjoy reading about today.

Joe Blanton threw seven shutout innings on Tuesday to lower his ERA down to 3.82. In 14 of his last 15 appearances he has allowed three or fewer earned runs. The man may not know how to wear stirrups, or how to shave his ridiculous looking facial hair, but he knows what to do with the ball in his hand.

Angel Guzman has been shut down for the remainder of the 2009 season do to a strained right triceps muscle. You may not have realized it, but he was actually the most consistent arm in the Cubs’ bullpen this season. Kevin Gregg leads the team with 23 saves and Carlos Marmol leads the group with 27 holds and 86 Ks in 70 innings, but guess who has the best WHIP on the team? That’s right, it’s Guzman with his 1.05 WHIP in 61 innings. Guzman also owns a 2.95 ERA on the year which also is the best mark of any hurler on the squad who has thrown more than 30 innings. See what I mean?

Josh Johnson picked up 10 strikeouts on Tuesday in his fifth loss of the season. Johnson threw five innings to leave him on the precipice of a milestone with 199.1 innings pitched on the season. Still, the Marlins continue to baby him. Johnson has been allowed to throw more than five innings just one time in four starts despite allowing two or fewer runs three times in this stretch. In fact, Johnson has now gone seven starts without tossing seven innings. Managing a pitchers innings count is important, especially when a guy is coming off injury, but if you are just going to pull him out of the game every time he hits 90 pitches (he tossed 92 on Tuesday), what’s to keep the other team from simply taking pitches and trying to drive up a guys pitch count so that they can get into the bullpen?

Pat Misch has lost each of his last three appearances for the Mets, hardly a shock given that he owns a 1-11 record in his big league career. In fact, it took him 55 appearances at the big league level to come up with his first victory, and in his three appearances since then he has gone 0-3 with a 12.40 ERA with two Ks and two BBs over 12.1 innings for the Mets. The Mets have decided to return Misch to the pen after those three outings. They certainly have some sharp guys making decisions with the Mets don’t they?

Manny Parra (neck) will make his scheduled start on Friday as he attempts to improve on his 10-10 record. No word yet on if he will resemble a major league pitcher or not in that outing given his 6.42 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his 25 starts this season. Those numbers got me to thinking. How easy is it to win 10 or more games with an ERA over 6.40? So I looked it up and the answer is – not very. It’s only happened twice in the last decade though Parra could make himself the third man on the list joining Ryan Drese and Colby Lewis. If we add on another decade, and take things back to 1990, one more name is added in LaTroy Hawkins. Going back to 1980, no one else makes the cut. Ditto if we go back to 1970, 1960, 1950, 1940. In fact, since the era of modern baseball began way back in 1900 there have only been three seasons in baseball history with an ERA over 6.40 and at least 10 victories in a single season. If Parra wants to become a part of history all he needs to do is continue along at his current rate and he will make it four. You don’t think he would purposefully throw a few batting practice type fastballs to see if he could keep that ERA high do you? Me neither, but it may be the only shot he ever has at history so perhaps I’ll shoot him an email to let him know he is on the edge of something really big.

By Ray Flowers

August NFBC Update

In case you missed it, and hopefully you haven’t, we here at Fanball are the new owners of F&W Media, Inc. You can read more about the deal in our National Press Release. That purchase included two of the biggest, baddest, live events in the business. For those of you interested in joining the upcoming National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) on September 4-6, click on the link to the event. The even pays $100,000 to the overall winner, and last season almost $900,000 in prizes were awarded, so it certainly bears some investigating on your part if you aren’t already signed up.

Part of that deal also included our purchase of the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFBC), and with our purchase of F&W this will be the last time I’m allowed to play in either event (something about conflict of interest or whatever). Still, I’m in it to win it over the next month and a half in the baseball event, and here is a quick review of that squad.

* Out of the 390 teams in the main event, the squad is in 62nd place overall.

* In my 15 team league (30 players per squad), the squad is squarely in third place.

* The offense, led by names like Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Bobby Abreu, Ichiro Suzuki and Jayson Werth, has been spectacular. How good you ask? Let us count the ways.

(1) The club is first in batting average (.290), first in home runs (218), second in RBI (841), first in runs (890) and second in steals (150). I said they were dominant didn’t I?

(2) Amongst the 390 teams in the main event, here is how the squad ranks overall.

Average: 8th
Home Runs: 49th
RBI: 28th
Runs: 5th
SB: 27th

Yeah, the offense is killer.

However, this leads to the inevitable question – just how awful is the pitching staff? Putrid unfortunately. Here are the rankings of the squad in pitching: 15th in Wins (50), 7th in ERA (4.09), 15th in K (770), 6th in WHIP (1.322) and 9th in saves (49). So why is the unit just ninth overall? I’m not going to say it was bad drafting, I’m going with bad luck.

Joey Devine – Didn’t throw one inning before needing TJ surgery.
Joba Chamberlain – Just hasn’t taken the next step with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.
Manny Parra – Too many walks leading to atrocious ratios (6.33 ERA, 1.82 WHIP).
Andy Sonnanstine – Failed to remotely match his work from last season with a 6.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP resulting in half a season spent in the minors.
Jordan Zimmerman – Another TJ surgery for our squad derailing a solid rookie season for this hurler (1.36 WHIP, 9.05 K/9, 3.15 K/BB).
Ian Snell – Banished to the minors and then traded, he can’t seem to find the strike zone when in the majors (59 walks in 99.2 innings).

Sure some chances were taken with this pitching staff, but in amassing that offense it seemed like a risk worth taking. Think of it this way. If Joey Devine saved just 15 games this season, a completely reasonable total based on anyone’s preseason expectations, we would gain five points in the saves category, up to fourth, and the club would have 107 points overall, well within shouting distance of the 111 points of the first place club. This example shows why your attention should be 100% focused on what you are doing at the draft table with every single selection you make. Your decision, one way or another, could mean the difference between a fourth place finish and being able to hoist the championship trophy at seasons end.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag Mania

Another day, another couple of emails to answer. Hey, you wouldn’t expect anything different from me would you? You all know that I’m here for all of you (how sweet huh?), and I happily answer all the questions I receive, even if it takes me a day or two. Let’s get to it before you start hearing violin’s playing.

I’ve been offered Paul Konerko and Cole Hamels for Tommy Hanson in a 3 man keeper league. I’m currently in 1st place in my division and I have Garret Jones as my current 1st baseman. The balance of my pitching staff is – Greinke, Billingsley, Jimenez, Garza, Brett Anderson, and Slowey (DL).

Here is the balance of my roster: Sandoval, Phillips, G. Jones, Rollins, Youkilis, Markakis, Pence, Hart, Ibanez, N. Cruz, R. Gutierrez, McCutchen, Prado
– Alan

The first thing to keep in mind here is that you can only keep a certain amount of players in any keeper league. Having young talent is obviously a major goal in such a set up, but if you can only protect a handful of guys from year-to-year it doesn’t make any sense to compile a roster of 10 first or second year players unless they can help you win today.

In this case, we have just such a situation. Based upon the statement given, each team can only protect three players. Therefore, trades should be made much more for today, versus next season, in many cases. Someone might want to keep Tommy Hanson in such a league, but honestly, that’s way more of a risk than I would consider. Why? Let’s assume this is a 12-team mixed league. Heck, let’s assume this is a 15-team mixed league. If each team can protect only three guys from year-to-year that means that in order to protect Hanson for next season you would need to view him as one of the top-45 players in the game. I’m certainly not there. Heck, you already have Zack Greinke and Chad Billingsley to choose from if you want to protect a pitcher for 2010, and I would without question protect both of them over Hanson.

Would I therefore accept the deal? You bet I would – though realize you will have to make a secondary move in order to create space no your roster for the two men you will be receiving. Hamels is in line for a strong second half if you ask me, especially when you consider that he has a .344 BABIP mark, far too high, especially for a man who owns a superb 4.74 K/BB mark. And don’t overlook the bounce back season of Konerko (.296-18-64) who is hitting .322 with five homers and 15 RBI in his last 15 games.

Who would you recommend out of the following pitcher available (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV), keeper league:

Brett Anderson
Jonathan Sanchez
Jeff Niemann
Manny Parra
C.J. Wilson

My pitching staff looks like this: Johan Santana, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, Clay Buchholz, Scott Baker, Jorge De La Rosa, Phil Hughes, J.P. Howell, DL – Lindstrom, DL – Wang, DL – Maine

Should I just wait for Lindstrom and Wang to come off the DL and not use up the waiver move (only have 3 left for the year)?
– Matthew, Toronto

Not knowing how many players can be kept, I’m at a bit of a loss here to recommend a guy.

If you are looking to add a guy to help right now, Jeff Niemann has been pretty good of late with a victory in each of his last five decisions as his ERA has fallen from 4.53 on May 23rd to 3.61.

Jonathan Sanchez has thrown consecutive “quality starts” including that no-hitter, but it’s tough to recommend a guy who has walked 47 batters in 84.2 innings.

Brett Anderson has allowed just one run in his last four appearances totaling 26.1 innings to drop his ERA to 4.25. Still, the youngster needs to prove he can handle the grind of a full season.

Manny Parra has looked rejuvenated since he returned to the Brewers allowing only one run over 13 innings while walking only four men.

C.J. Wilson continues to get save chances as Frank Francisco just cannot stay on the field. He owns a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.17 K/BB mark, merely average for a late inning reliever.

Chien-Ming Wang, I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but at the same time he has been so awful I would just leave him on the DL until he proved worthy of activation.

Matt Lindstrom continues to progress from his elbow issues and hopes to be back within two weeks, max. Still, I want to see him prove his worth as well before I activate him.

You have two choices Matt. You can grab Wilson since you currently have only one closer on your roster. However, that might indicate that you have decided to “punt” saves in which case there is little reason to add Wilson, especially since he isn’t likely to hold on to the job the rest of the way (Francisco is getting over a bout of pneumonia). Therefore I would recommend picking up Jeff Niemann. He clearly doesn’t have an upside remotely approaching the others, but I see Anderson, Sanchez and Parra as having more downside than the man from the Rays.

And finally —

Kudos to Mark Buehrle who threw just the 18th perfect game in baseball history today (including Don Larson’s outing in the 1956 World Series). Buehrle should name his next kid after DeWayne Wise who caught what would have been a home run as he crashed into the wall in the bottom of the ninth inning (he was a defensive replacement in the ninth by the way). What a game. Take that retirement talk.

By Ray Flowers

Finding Their Way

Apparently I have no sway with anyone. Yesterday I gave my thoughts on who the fans should vote for the final spot for the AL and NL All-Star team’s in The Last Man, but I guess no one ha any faith in my analytical abilities. Of course, there were nearly 69 million votes cast, and I’m willing to bet that at least 7.3 million of those votes came from people who have never read my work which must be the reason my choices weren’t the winner. In case you were wondering, the winners were Shane Victorino, who I had fourth, and Brandon Inge who I had third.

Chad Ocho Cinco made some comments about how he was going to revolutionize the “Twitter” craze from the sidelines this season, that is before the NFL stepped up and squashed that one before it got started. “We already have a rule that prohibits the use of cell phones or other hand held devices in the bench area during games,” spokesman Greg Aiello said. Too bad. I was really looking forward to the pearls of wisdom this buffoon was likely to share from the sidelines. I could just see a string of things like “I shook that guy out of his jock with that move” or “I look pretty when I score.” If only the NFL would have let him go forward with it.

Reports have the Reds heavily interested in adding Garret Atkins to their club. Two things. (1) That wouldn’t be bad news at all for Atkins as Cincinnati is still a great hitter’s park as his current home in Colorado also is. (2) With Joey Votto locked in at first, does that mean that Edwin Encarnacion would be the part of any potential deal, and if not, where would they both play if they were on the Reds? There isn’t a rover in baseball like softball – unless Mr. Selig decided to add it for the good of the game.

Pedro Martinez is one step closer to returning to the big leagues as he apparently is nearing an agreement with the Phillies. Good. Baseball needs Pedro. Let’s just hope he is healthy.

Manny Parra, banished to the minors after posting a 7.52 ERA and a 7.65 BB/9 mark in 13 starts, returned triumphantly on Thursday as he held the Cardinals scoreless for seven innings to lower his ERA to 6.78. Parra struck out seven, allowed only three hits, and most importantly walked only a single batter. I’m not ready to give up on the lefty, but even with today’s performance it’s not like you should be running to the waiver-wire to pick him up. Make the kid earn it.

Joel Pineiro continues to dazzle with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP after a complete game three hitter against the Brewers in which he allowed only one run while needing just 100 pitches. The man has 48 strikeouts in 115.1 innings or the same total as David Aardsma in his 38.1 innings. Still, he is proving to the world that he should have been selected as a starter for Team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic over Jonathan Sanchez who has 68 Ks but a 2-8 record along with a 5.30 ERA.

Chris Shelton has been recalled to the Mariners. It’s about time isn’t it? I mean he hit .460 in Spring Training and then has blasted Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .319 mark with a .906 OPS through 76 games. I know Mike Sweeney is a great clubhouse guy, but come on, the man is hitting .250 with three home runs and a .678 OPS in 120 at-bats with the Mariners this season (he is on the DL now). That doesn’t seem like that type of performance should have kept Shelton down does it? Oh, in other Mariners news, Ichiro is still hitting .356 with a .388 OBP yet he is on pace for 80 runs, and Russell Branyan is on pace to push 40 home runs, he has 21, though his average has dipped to .287 thanks to a mere .237 average over his last 114 at-bats.

With a home run on Thursday, Mark Teixeira ended a 96 at-bat stretch without a home run. How in the world can a guy who has hit at least 30 home runs in each of the last five seasons go a sixth of the year without hitting one? Even crazier, how can he have gone that long and still be on pace to reach the upper 30′s (he has 21)?

By Ray Flowers