Is There Room for a DH?

Of all the players on the HOF ballot not tied to the performance enhancing drug scandal, none engenders more heated debate than Edgar Martinez. Purists scoff at the notion of a designated hitter being enshrined in the Hall of Fame, while those who study the art of hitting, as well as the numbers seem to suggest that there is little to warrant keeping Martinez out of the Hall. Let’s take a look at both sides.

1- A DH cannot be in the Hall of Fame.
No full-time DH has been elected to the HOF (Martinez played in 2,055 games with 591 coming as either a first or third baseman meaning less than 29 percent of his career games required a mitt). Personally, I think the DH is an abomination to the game – akin to Velcro on shoes – but it is part of the game so it makes no sense to simply ignore the “position.” It may not be a “position” like first or third base, after all there is no need for the fella to even bring a glove to the ball park, but should that preclude him from being elected to the Hall of Fame? It might be comparing apples to oranges, but do you know how many at-bats Mariano Rivera has in his illustrious career? Try two. Should he be kept out of the HOF because he only helped his club in one facet of the game? Of course not, so maybe we should view the DH in the same vein?

2- Martinez could flat out rake.

The numbers are pretty darn impressive. Let’s go through a few of them.

* Martinez was named to seven All-Star teams.

* Martinez won five Silver Slugger awards, including one while playing third base (1992).

* Martinez owns a .312 career average, 91st best in history. He won the batting title in 1992 and 1995 and five other times he finished in the top-8.

* Not just the producer of hits, the man also knew how to work the count. Martinez led the AL in OBP three times (1995, 1998-99) and eight other times he finished in the top six. He retired with a .418 career mark, 22nd all-time.

* A fair slugger (.515 SLG), Martinez owns a .933 OPS in his career, good for 34th overall. Six times he finished in the top-5 and two other times in the top-8.

* Martinez also had 514 doubles (41st all-time), knocked in 1,261 runs (115th), hit 309 homers (112th), and produced 2,247 hits (154th).

Those numbers are clearly impressive, and they only grow in importance when you line them up against others. Consider the following.

* Martinez hit .3115 in his career. That’s less than two percentage points behind Manny Ramirez (.3132).

* Martinez hit 309 homers. Ivan Rodriguez, a fair home run bat in his own right, has only 305 homers in his career in roughly 1,800 more at-bats.

* Martinez knocked in more runs (1,261) than Bernie Williams (1,257), Albert Belle (1,239) and Matt Williams.

* Martinez owns a .418 career OBP which is 22nd — ever. Think about that for a minute. Done thinking? There are only two players who are currently active and have at least 3,000 plate appearances who can better that mark – Todd Helton (.427) and Albert Pujols (.427).

* And finally, that OPS of Martinez which sits at .933, is good enough for 34th in the annals of the game. If that number is adjusted for era and park, he drops a bit with an OPS+ of 147, though it still ties him for 39th – ever.

The bottom line? If you value hitting, few did it better than this man. Considering that the final couple of years of his career that he resembled Bengie Molina in his ability to move around the bases, it’s pretty amazing that he was able to produce the numbers that he did (not to mention that the Mariners stupidly held him back from full-time work until he was 27 years of age). If he even possessed average speed throughout his career he may have hit .320 with an OPS over .950, and only 10 men who ever played the game reached both of those numbers.

It pains me to say it – I simply detest the DH – but I think Martinez should be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. He was the best DH when he played, and even if I abhor the entire concept, it’s not like we can ignore its existence. Symbolically I wouldn’t vote for him on the first ballot, but sooner or later, I would pull the trigger.

To read my thoughts on others in my HOF series simply click on the following links:

Who Am I?

HOF: Tim Raines

Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

The Case of Andre Dawson

HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?

By Ray Flowers

World Series Wrap Up

I know it’s a bit late to put a bow on the World Series, but I was out of town at the Arizona Fall League looking at the rookies that will make their mark in the coming campaigns (you can read my thoughts in AFL Impressions). So, before we leave the 2009 baseball season and start looking toward the 2010 campaign, here are some of my closing thoughts on how things played out with the Yankees and the Phillies in the Fall Classic.

The Yankees have won 27 World Series. If you add up team’s #2-4 on the list you end up with a mere total of 26 championships – St. Louis (10), Oakland (nine) and Boston (seven). Moreover, the Yankees ended the third longest drought in franchise history at eight seasons without a championship. The two longer streaks were 17 (1979-95) and 14 (1963-76) seasons. By the way, the Nationals, Rangers, Rays, Mariners, Padres, Brewers, Astros and Rockies are still looking for their first championship.

Cliff Lee became the first pitcher since Don Newcomb in 1949 to have a game of 10 or more strikeouts and zero walks (in fact, he tossed back-to-back such outings in the NLCS and his first series start). In his two starts against the Yankees, Lee struck out 13 batters, walked just three and went 2-0.

Andy Pettitte is the all-time leader in post-season victories with 18. Pettitte also used the 2009 playoffs to become just the third pitcher in history to emerge with a victory in all three clinching games (division series, league championship and World Series). The other hurlers are Derek Lowe in 2004 and Freddy Garcia in 2005. Still, this talk that Pettitte is one of the greatest clutch pitchers of all-time is ludicrous. Sure he leads the way in the win column, but don’t overlook the fact that he has made 40 starts in front of some dominating offenses. Sample size people, look it up if you don’t understand what I’m talking about (Some People Never Learn is a good place to start).

For all this talk that Alex Rodriguez is a choke artist, it may be time to change that broken record. After all, the guy hit .365 with six homers, 18 RBI and 15 runs scored in 15 playoff games. On yeah, he was pretty good at getting on base (.500 OBP) and piling up bases as well (.808 OPS). With this amazing post-season A-Rod how owns a .302/.409/.568 line in 199 post-season at-bats, numbers that are almost an exact duplication of his career line during the regular season (.305/.390/.576).

If you want to talk about chocking under pressure, the very thought of which I find to be complete poppycock – like and MVP performer will suddenly just devolve into a sniveling morass of failure merely because it’s the playoffs – your gaze would have to fall on Ryan Howard. The big fella hit only .174 in 23 at-bats in the Series with a whopping total of 13 strikeouts, the most ever in the World Series. After striking out eight times in his first nine post-season games this year, Howard simply hit a rough patch at the absolute worst time.

Derek Jeter has played 138 post-season games in his career, basically just a bit under a full major league season. How has he done? To the surprise of no one he has been terrific with a .313 average, 20 homers, 55 RBI, 99 runs and 16 steals. Pressure, what pressure?

Hideki Matsui was awarded the World Series MVP in part because of his .615 average (8-for-13), the third highest ever in the Series (Billy Hatcher hit .750 in 1990 while Babe Ruth hit .625 in 1928). Matsui also knocked in eight runs to tie the World Series mark which was, fittingly, last reached by Reggie Jackson in 1978.

And finally I’ll close my coverage by calling on the best post-season closer in history in Mariano Rivera. The Yanks’ closer has posted an amazing 0.99 ERA in 36.1 World Series innings, and shockingly that number is merely 5th amongst guys who have tossed at least 30-innings in the Series. Here are the men who are ahead of him.

0.83 – Harry Brecheen in 32.2 IP
0.87 – Babe Ruth in 31 IP
0.89 – Sherry Smith in 30.1 IP
0.95 – Sandy Koufax in 57 IP

Rivera is tremendous, but he has a ways to go if he wants to match the dominance that Koufax showed, or that of Christy Mathewson who posted an utterly amazing 1.06 mark over 101.2 innings.

By Ray Flowers

World Series Preview

Which team will emerge victorious in the 2009 World Series between the Phillies and the Yankees? In what follows I’ll give my thoughts on who it looks like will win this battle of two potent offenses.

OFFENSE

Phillies: The fourth highest scoring team in the regular season (820 runs), the Phils also hit 224 home runs, tied for second overall with the Rangers.

The Phils boast four 30-homer bats in Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley. Howard and Ibanez are traditional slugger types whereas Werth (20 steals) and Utley (23 steals) bring a 20/20 game to the party. The Phillies also boast two solid table setters in Jimmy Rollins (100 runs, 31 steals) and Shane Victorino (102 runs, 25 steals). There is no finer group of six offensive weapons in the game in one lineup.

Yankees: The highest scoring team in the regular season (915), the Yankees also led baseball with 244 home runs.

Like the Phillies, the Yankees boast a powerful lineup with two 30-100 guys in Mart Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Nick Swisher also went deep 29 times with 82 RBI while Hideki Matsui (28-90), Robinson Cano (25-85),Johnny Damon (24-82) and Jorge Posada (22-81) are all also members of the 20-HR, 80-RBI club. And to think, I didn’t even mention their most important player yet in Derek Jeter.

ADVANTAGE: Yankees
Both of these teams can bash, and both yards are clearly made for offensive explosions. Given the depth of both lineups this is almost a toss up, but I’ll go with the Yankees who figure to have an advantage when using the DH in the Yankees’ home park for up to four games.

PITCHING

Phillies: Finished eighth in ERA (4.16), 8th in WHIP (1.3520) and tied for 12th in K (1,153) during the regular season.

Cliff Lee is amazing, and Brad Lidge has apparently figured things out at the back end of games. Pedro Martinez has also dialed back the calendar some seven or eight years. Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ can start or relieve at this point, but the key to this unit is twofold. (1) Can Cole Hamels recapture last year’s success? (2) Will that bullpen be able to get leads from the starters into the hands of Mr. Lidge, and will he be able to convert if they do?

Yankees: Finished 12th in ERA (4.26), 7th in WHIP (1.3517) and 4th in K (1,260) during the regular season.

The Yankees didn’t give CC Sabathia the keys to Fort Knox to waste away on the bench, so it looks like he might be asked to go in Games 1, 4 and 7. Andy Pettitte continues to come through in big games, and A.J. Burnett might be erratic, but the man has no-hit stuff every time he takes the mound. There are no concerns here about the bullpen as Mariano Rivera is the all-time playoff reliever, and with Joba Chamberlain on hand to help Phil Hughes to get the ball to Mariano, things are looking pretty good.

ADVANTAGE: Yankees
The bullpen will likely be the difference here, and as long as the Yanks can get Hughes back on track, they have the advantage.

BENCH

Phillies: There is little depth here for the Phillies who were lucky enough to have pretty much every offensive weapon suit up for at least 130 games during the regular season. Matt Stairs will likely be called on to try and hit a ball to the moon, and Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco are also on hand for some added depth.

Yankees: When the game moves to Philadelphia, the Yankees will have a huge advantage with Hideki Matsui, an everyday slugger, able to pinch hit at a moments notice. That gives them the advantage on the road, and at home they will also be in the same position rolling Matsui as DH with the Phillies likely using someone like Dobbs, Stairs or Francisco. That’s not a favorable matchup.

ADVANTAGE: Yankees

INTANGIBLES

Phillies: 5th in fielding percentage (.987).
Manager Charlie Manuel has a World Series Championship under his belt from last season, but the guy just scares the hell out of me with the use of his pitching staff.

Yankees: 16th in field percentage (.985).
Manager Joe Girardi will look to emulate his former manager, Joe Torre, and return the Yankees to the realm of World Champions.

ADVANTAGE: Yankees

RAY’s PICK: Yankees in Six
I almost want to puke. In fact, I might if I was picking the Dodgers here. Still, the Yankees are my second most hated club, cue the vomit bags, and given that their player’s salary is something like the GNP of a few countries in the world, it’s hard to like the Evil Empire. However, it looks like they will win their first World Series since 2000 and their 27th overall championship.

By Ray Flowers

Some Regular Season Thoughts

With Game 163 on the docket tonight, playoff fever is in the air. But before we totally succumb to that level of trepidation and elation, I thought I would hit on a few of the storylines from the regular season that popped into my noggin’ today.

Andrew Bailey isn’t getting a lot of pub when it comes to the AL Rookie of the Year award, and you can thank the fact that he played half his games in front of about 11,000 people a night out in Oakland. If he pitched for the Yankees or the Red Sox he would be a household name. Bailey saved 26 games for an A’s team that won only 75 contests, and along the way he posted a 1.84 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and a strong 9.83 K/9 mark. How many hurlers posted an ERA below 1.90 with a WHIP below 0.90 and racked up at least 25 saves this past season? The answer is one – one. Mariano Rivera had a 0.90 WHIP and Trevor Hoffman had a 0.91 WHIP. They were close, but no cigar.

Homer Bailey may have finally established himself at the major league level. Over his last seven starts he went 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 42 Ks over 43.3 innings pitched. He still hasn’t really solved those control issues (3.95 BB/9 in that time), but he may just have picked up enough about the art of pitching to get by with his above average stuff.

Chris Coghlan finished sixth in the NL batting race hitting .321 as a rookie for the Marlins. Not only was he a tremendous option for his overall work – he was actually flat out amazing over the second half of the season as he hit a Joe Mauer-like .372 over his final 72 games covering 304 ABs. Moreover, if we remove May when he was finding his legs in the bigs, Coghlan hit .338 over his 438 ABs. Not a bad rookie season Mr. CC.

Pablo Sandoval has got to be 30 pounds overweight, and I swear to my maker that he is off balance on literally about 50 percent of his swings, not to mention that he obviously went to the Vladimir Guerrero school of ‘if it’s in the air I’m going to swing at it.’ Despite all that, and the fact that he entered 2009 with only 145 big league at-bats, the Kung Fu Panda was second in the NL in the batting race (.330) while socking 25 homers, knocking in 90 runs and finishing seventh with a .943 OPS. I know it’s hard to believe, but I’m telling you this kid has a lot to learn about hitting. I don’t know if that means he will improve upon his current level of production, but he can certainly improve his technique and approach, and that has to be one scary thought for hurlers.

Vincente Padilla came over to the Dodgers after going 8-6 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with the Rangers. I, for one, though this was a desperate move. I still think it was, but the fact of the matter is that it has certainly paid dividends for the Dodgers who got some terrific work from the righty in his eight appearances (4-0, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). In his last start he lasted seven innings against the Rockies striking out a season best 10 batters, and as a result he will apparently start Game 3 of the first round of the playoffs for the Dodgers. It certainly would help the Dodgers outlook immensely if they were able to get the “real” Chad Billingsley in the playoffs after he struggled pretty heavily down the stretch with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over his last 14 appearances (he did last 12 innings in his last two starts, but he went 0-1 with a 3.75 while walking nine batters). Don’t know about you, but I simply cannot count the Dodgers as a legitimate World Series contender if they are counting on Padilla to be their third starter in the playoffs.

Lastly, if you want some info about Game 163 pitting the Twins against the Tigers, give Around the Horn a read.

By Ray Flowers

Hoffman Staying Put

A fine wine. The US Constitution. Trevor Hoffman. What do these three things have in common? They all seemingly get better with age. The Brewers recognized that fact on Monday when they officially signed Trevor Hoffman to a 1-year, $8 million contract to return as the club’s closer in the 2010 (he also has a mutual option for 2011). Will the deal end up working out for the Brewers? Let’s see…

All the way back in January, literally the day after Hoffman signed on to join the Brewers, I wrote a piece in which I said, and I quote, “I believe the signing was a good one as well. In fact, there is little reason to think that Hoffman won’t pile up his normal 30 saves while posting strong ratios yet again.” (you can read the full article by using the link to Five Questions). Clearly that opinion was dead on, just look at how Hoffman performed this season.

(1) Hoffman posted 37 saves this season while blowing only four chances. The 37 saves were the fourth most in the NL and the seventh most in baseball (tied with Fernando Rodney, coincidentally, another hurler who relies heavily on his changeup).

(2) This was the sixth straight season in which Hoffman recorded at least 30 saves, and the 14th time in 15 seasons that he reached that mark. The only time he failed to, in 2003, he was limited to just nine appearances because of injury.

(3) Hoffman posted a 1.83 ERA, nearly a run below his career 2.73 mark. It was also his best mark since 1998 when he had a career best 1.48 mark the year he also saved 53 games and finished second in the NL Cy Young Award race.

(4) Hoffman posted a 0.91 WHIP, a level below his 1.04 career mark. Additionally, it was the lowest mark since 1998 (0.85) tying his 0.91 mark from 2004.

(5) Hoffman posted “only” eight strikeouts per nine innings, well below his 9.53 career mark, but still the second best mark of the past four seasons.

(6) Hoffman walked only 2.33 batters per nine innings. His career mark is 2.49. As a result, he produced a solid 3.43 K/BB mark, a slight step below his 3.83 career mark. That number is still a strong enough mark that future success is certainly possible.

(7) Hoffman held batters to a .187 batting average (career .213), his best mark since that fantastic 1998 season. He also posted a .240 BABIP mark, well below his .278 career mark.

Given all that data, what do I see? I see a 41 year old reliever who is still operating at a high level, quite the statement to make considering he is the best closer in the history of the NL (that title goes to Mariano Rivera in the AL). Hoffman still strikes out enough batters, while walking few enough, that he continues to control many at-bats. He was a bit “lucky” this season with that low BABIP – his LD-rate was also down some six percent from his career 20.1 percent mark at 14.3 percent – so some regression in the ratio categories is certain in 2010. Regardless, let me repeat, one more time, the same thing that I quoted at the start of this piece.

“I believe the signing was a good one as well. In fact, there is little reason to think that Hoffman won’t pile up his normal 30 saves while posting strong ratios yet again.”

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

By Ray Flowers

At What Cost?

Every team needs saves. Some take the chance on draft day and roster “locks” like Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, while others take the chance on guys with good skills that have yet to prove themselves (names like Frank Francisco, Joey Devine and Chad Qualls). Others wait to roster closer off of the waiver-wire knowing full well that saves can be had, in standard 12 team leagues, virtually all season via free agency. In fact, according to our friends at Baseball HQ, roughly 1/3 to ½ of all closers who open the year as their teams top ninth inning ace failed to return even 50% of their draft day value by seasons end (that means if you spent $20 on a reliever he would be just as likely to earn $20 as he would be to earn $10 or less in production). Think that’s off the mark? Just look at names that little last years save leaders and think back as to how many of these guys could have been had off waivers in the month of April, 2008.

George Sherrill- 31 saves
Salomon Torres- 28
Ryan Franklin- 17
Fernando Rodney-13
Dan Wheeler- 13
Jensen Lewis- 13
Brad Ziegler- 11

My bet is that every one of those guys were available in your league last April.

The point is that guys with saves can certain be found on waivers, in fact early season breakout candidates in this realm include the likes of Ryan Franklin (seven), and Fernando Rodney (six). The question becomes, how much do you spend on guys if you are in a league that uses free agent acquisition budget’s (FAAB) and your are looking at in season moves? Here are my thoughts on the four biggest names that were likely picked up weekend.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros
With Jose Valverde likely to miss at least four weeks with a calf injury, Hawkins will likely hold down the ninth inning for the Astros, and this position was further enhanced when Doug Brocail was forced to the DL with a hamstring injury. Hawkins hasn’t recorded double-digit saves since 2004 and he has just 10 saves and 20 blown saves in that time. In fact, since 2005 Hawkins has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 5.77 K/9 mark. That’s league average across the board, but at least you know you should get a month of save chances out of him.
VALUE: Medium

Joe Beimel, Nationals
Julian Tavarez is also in the mix for saves, and Beimel is actually in the minors right now on a rehab assignment for a left hip flexor strain (he hopes to be back this week). Beimel has appeared in 224 games since the start of the 2006 season, and in that time he has only thrown 193.2 innings as more often than not he wasn’t asked to face right-handed batters. In this time frame he also owns a 4.83 K/89 mark and a 1.55 K/BB rate, terrible numbers for a reliever and putrid for a closer. He will likely get a few saves, but I just can’t see him being the answer as Joel Hanrahan certainly should get a shot to reclaim his lost job at some point.
VALUE: Low

Ryan Madson, Phillies
Only a closer if Brad Lidge is out with injury. There are concerns with Lidge’s knee, but Madson is clearly the second option even though at this point his ability to accrue saves is nil. Still, Madson is a fine addition given that his fastball has gained three mph this season (94.6) leading to a huge boost in his K/9 mark (13.09) while working with a tremendous 1.83 G/F ratio. If Lidge goes down, still a possibility, Madson gains a ton of value.
VALUE: Medium

Michael Wuertz, Athletics
Joey Devine is out for the year. Brad Ziegler is missing time with an illness. Santiago Casilla is on the DL with a calf strain. That means Wuertz has picked up a couple of saves while sporting a solid 8.56 K/9 marl and a scintillating 6.50 K/BB. Don’t expect it to continue as his control has never been remotely this good (2.18 K/BB career). When Ziegler and Casilla are healthy look for Wuertz to be nothing more than a solid middle reliever option, especially with Andrew Bailey also pitching lights out (1.53 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 20 K in 17.2 IP).
VALUE: Low

The bottom line is that saves are available and will continue to be on there on waivers through the course of the season. Just make sure you invest wisely so as to avoid picking up a handful of saves while imploding your ratios.

By Ray Flowers