Player Profile: Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm‘s name likely elicits, let’s see, a yawn? Before you lock that thought into your head as to what your reaction should be when the Braves’ lefties name as mentioned remember this:

Maholm had a better ERA than Homer Bailey, Chris Capuano, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright and Ian Kennedy in 2012.

Maholm had a better WHIP than Ryan Vogelsong, A.J. Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Lance Lynn, Tommy Hanson and Tim Lincecum in 2012.

Maholm had more wins than Jordan Zimmerman, Chris Capuano, Roy Halladay, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley and Jeff Samardzija.

Do I have your attention yet?

Paul Maholm isn’t exciting, I will give you that. Even with all of the above data the fact of the matter is that Maholm won 13 games, had a 3.67 ERA an a 1.22 WHIP. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but it’s not like they will lead to a fantasy championship. However, it should be noted that numbers like those, from a reserve round selection or a waiver-wire pick up, are special numbers. Are you better off spending $23 on Johnny Cueto or $3 on Paul Maholm on draft day? Obviously Cueto is a better pitcher and the one you need more to win a championship, but hopefully you see the point – Maholm is the better value add based on his draft day cost. If you can augment an expensive Cueto with a cheap as all get out Maholm, then you’ve got something. In terms of return on investment, Maholm was one of the best bargains in baseball in 2012. Can he be so again in 2013?

On the bump Maholm has been very consistent the past two seasons. In 2012 he had a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 189 innings. In 2011 he had a 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 innings. However, like many of the other hurlers I’ve been reviewing, it’s best to realize what Maholm is – he’s a rotation filler who won’t hurt you. Why do I say that? For some reason he can’t seem to consistently win games. Maholm owns a 66-84 career record, and even the past two years when he has pitched so well he’s gone 19-25. Wins-loses are of course a bad way to judge pitchers performances, I’m the first to admit that, but in the fantasy game they are one of the four categories that matter to starting hurlers. I should also point out that in four of the past five seasons, despite at least 26 starts each year (more than 30 in four of them), that Paul failed to reach double-digits in wins. For some reason he’s just not able to consistently post wins.

The next issue with Maholm is that he lacks a strikeout pitch. For his career Maholm owns a poor 5.71 K/9 mark, and that fact alone removes him from receiving my stamp of approval. Still, it is somewhat heartening to see that he’s coming off a career best mark of 6.67, though it should be noted that the mark is 0.61 better than ever before (back in 2008). Maholm isn’t going to turn into a league average K arm, just the way it is. Maholm does keep the walks in check, at least he has that going for him, with a BB/9 mark of 2.80 or lower in five of the past six years.

One thing that Maholm does well, very well, is induce grounders. It’s why he can be so effective without dominating hitters. Maholm’s GB-rate has been at least 49.9 percent every season of his career, and his worst GB/FB ratio for a season is a still impressive 1.69. Consequently he’s not exactly a homer magnet as his HR/9 mark has been under one each of the past five years.

Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around. He’s also a pitcher who could see his performance go down since he lacks elite skills, but not likely up. That’s why he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

The Fall of a Franchise

The Marlins have done this before. They’ve ripped apart a team, torn it down after having success (well not this time), to save money. They outdid themselves Tuesday night when they agreed to a deal, not yet approved by Major League Baseball, with the Blue Jays. Before I delve into the deal, here are a few of the Twitter responses by people to the deal.

#Marlins insist Grooms sculpture will not be traded for the Hard Rock Café at Rogers Centre. Sculpture is not convinced. – @jonmorosi

#Marlins opened season with a payroll of roughly $100MM. After this trade, non-arb 2013 obligations will be ~ 25MM. Historic salary dump. – @jonmorosi

#Marlins will have no $$ committed to payroll in 2014. At this moment, Dobbs and Nolasco are only players #Marlins are committed to in even 2013. – @Joelsherman1

Remember: The #Marlins do not award no-trade clauses. – @Ken_Rosenthal

Report: #Marlins sending their stadium to #BlueJays as part of the deal. – @BaseballGuys

Alright, I’m pissed off!!! Plain & Simple. -  @Giancarlo818

Here’s the deal as we currently understand it in what is the most lopsided trade potentially in the history of professional sports.

Blue Jays receive: shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio and $4 million.

Marlins receive: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino, and catcher Jeff Mathis.

TRADE REVIEW

The Blue Jays get an elite shortstop, and when healthy, a borderline elite arm on the hill. Reyes is a top-5 shortstop in terms of offense, and his defense is solid. Johnson is coming off his worst season, but that effort still included a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.76 K/9 and 2.54 K/BB. Those are still pretty solid numbers. Buehrle, for the 12th straight season, threw at least 200-innings while winning 10 or more games. Buck is a catcher with 20 homer power, though one that is far from stable at the dish given his swing and miss ways. As for Bonifacio, he was on pace to lead baseball in steals last season before he was waylaid by injury. He played 51 games in CF and 15 games at second base, this a year after he also played 36 games at third base and 67 at shortstop. Here’s a potential lineup for the Blue Jays.

1 Jose Reyes, SS
2 Emilio Bonifacio, 2B
3 Jose Bautista, RF
4 Edwin Encarnacion, DH
5 Brett Lawrie 3B
6 Adam Lind, 1B
7 Colby Rasmus, CF
8 J.P. Arencebia, C
9 Rajai Davis

Looking at that daily lineup, you have to be pretty impressed. Speed, power — the only thing they really don’t have is batting average production. Could be a lot of homers and steals though. Maicer Izturis, who signed a 3-year, $10 million deal, now becomes a very expensive super sub. There’s no way around the fact that Toronto has just massively improved their roster. At the same time, two concerns. (1) How will Johnson and Buehrle perform in the AL East? It’s not exactly an easy place to pitch. (2) The Blue Jays took on about $165-$170 million in salary in the deal.

The Marlins received Yunel Escobar, a player who needed a change of scenery. He’s a middle of the pack major league shortstop. Henderson Alvarez, who I wrote about before the season in this Player Profile, performed exactly like I expected – relatively poorly (9-14, 4.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 3.80 K/9). My review of Jeff Mathis? A strong defender behind the dish who might be the worst hitter of his generation.

In terms of on the field product the Marlins were taken about behind the woodshed, hit in the head with a stick, had their wallet stolen, their clothes stripped from their bodies and then were tied up. The offender then took their keys, went to their house, packed up their flat screen TV, their fancy refrigerator and pocketed their jewelry. They then went on line, emptied the victims bank account, and erased their identity. Not finished, they then burned the house down, ran their car into the river and and defecated on what was left of the front lawn. You get the point, right?

BASEBALL IN MIAMI

It’s over. If you are a fan of the franchise, I have to think that ended yesterday. How could it go any other direction? In addition to gutting the franchise yet again, the Marlins did a complete 180 degree turn less than a year after they plotted a new direction for their franchise. After signing all those big money deals last offseason (see Angels/Marlins Spending Like Drunken Sailors), don’t forget they already traded Heath Bell to the D’backs, they gutted their team on Tuesday. Not only have they weakened their on the field product immensely, they have also turned their nose up at their fans, flipped them off, punched them in the face, and stolen their lunch money. Remember, the Marlins just built, at a cost of nearly $640 million, a stadium of which they only paid $125 million for saddling the public with the remaining cost (the County spent roughly $376 million, which will have to be raised in taxes, while the City of Miami also chipped in $132 million). The Marlins also received an interest free loan of $35 million to help with expenses which they will have to pay back at a rate of $2.3 million a year. I’ll just say it – Jeffrey Loria is a crook. Plain and simple. Make sure you read Tim Brown’s review of the deal to get a fuller understanding of how the most greedy man in pro sports is running the Miami Marlins.

Daily Joust – Wk 17: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ike Davis (+25, $104 K in DailyJoust Salary)
He’s hitting just .213. Ugh. Now the positive. He has 20 homers, the same total as Mark Teixeira. He’s driven in 60 runs, nine more than Paul Konerko. He’s hit .253 the last 49 games after hitting .170 in his first 48 games. Certain progress no doubt, but there are still two situations that you want to make sure Davis is firmly rooted to your bench. (1) He’s hit .179 with a .576 OPS against lefties this season. (2) He’s hit .151 with a .484 OPS at home. I’m not kidding. Davis has a .151 average at home, a .214 batting average and .270 SLG in 159 at-bats. Can’t get much worse than that and remain a big leaguer.

A.J. Griffin (+69, $344K)
The former college closer just knows how to pitch. Winner of each of his last three starts, each of the six times that Griffin has taken the hill this season he’s gotten exactly 18 outs while allowing no more than three runs in any outing. In fact, he’s sporting some elite ratios – including a 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP – as he’s held batters to a .205 average while posting 29 Ks, against only eight walks, in 36 innings. It’s impossible to think he will keep up this pace, but he’s been a waiver-wire gem the past five weeks.

Justin Maxwell (+14, $70K)
For those of you in NL-only leagues Justin has been a nice, reserve round gamble, hasn’t he? Maxwell has socked 10 long balls with 31 RBIs and 29 runs scored in just 172 at-bats, some pretty impressive marks given that relatively small sample size. However, he’s also hitting .227 which, unfortunately, is .015 points better than his career average. You’re really pushing it if you’re using him in mixed leagues, but he’s a valuable commodity, despite the warts, in league specific setups.

Max Scherzer (+149, $437K)
The last five times he has taken the hill he has emerged victorious four times. In his last four starts he’s allowed a total of eight runs. He’s walked an unappealing eight batters in his last two trips to the hill, but he’s offset the wildness with his huge stuff that has led to a 10.99 K/9 mark, the best in the Junior Circuit (11.58 for Stephen Strasburg to lead the NL). The K/9 mark is a career best, as is his 3.39 K/BB ratio. He needs to do a better job keeping the ball in the yard as he’s given up more fly balls than ever before, an a greater percentage of those fly balls have landed in the seats than ever before.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Mike Aviles (-14, $55K)
On the year Aviles has been a borderline top-10 shortstop option as he’s hit .252 with 10 homers, 51 RBIs, 42 runs scored and 10 steals. Unfortunately for Aviles owners, it’s gotten ugly of late. Aviles is hitting .200 over his last 50 at-bats. He’s also hitting just .194 in July. He has just two homers in his last 48 games. He’s scored just 12 runs in his last 48 games. Yeah, it might be time to explore going with another option up the middle.

Mark Buehrle (-40, $370K)
The guy has been a rock this year with a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 20 starts. It’s not all sugar plumbs and roses though as he’s allowed six earned runs over his last two starts (just 10 IP) as he’s walked five while striking out five. We could play this game all day, he’s killing it, he’s mortal, but in the end he is what he is – and that is a pretty darn impressive big league hurler who never gets hurt an  almost always gives his team a chance to win, even if he isn’t an impressive big league arm.

Trevor Cahill (-47, $283K)
When will they learn? The loser in two of three starts and four of six, Cahill has been the past month what he often is – a below average big league pitcher. In five July starts he has gone 2-3 with a 4.45 WE, 1.48 WHIP and 21 Ks in 30.1 innings. If that excites you have at it with Cahill, but I personally don’t understand the love affair people have with him. Working on a career best K/9 rate, it’s just 6.50, the only think that Cahill does well, the only thing, is keeping the ball on the ground. Still, even with a career best 59 percent ground ball rate his current ratios (3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) look exactly like his career numbers (3.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).

Mike Trout (-24, $128K)
A chink in the armor perhaps? Trout’s average has dipped to .350, the lowest it’s been in two weeks, and he’s stolen only one base in his last 13 games. What a loser. I’d still exercise caution when it comes to telling the future with Trout given that his line drive rate is huge and likely unsustainable (25.4 percent). Ditto his BABIP of .402. He’s having a magical season no doubt, but will he finish as strong as he started?

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

Player Profile: Mark Buehrle

It seemed like every team in baseball wanted to sign Mark Buehrle this offseason. Why was the bidding so intense for a pitcher who has never been an ace? The most obvious answer is that every team needs pitching, and there were few available options on the market this offseason. The second reason was that, despite never being that ace, Buehrle has long been one hell of an innings eating beast.

WINS
From 2001-11 Buehrle won at least 10 games each season. Only two other men are in that group – CC Sabathia and Javier Vazquez.

From 2001-11 Buehrle won a total of 157 games. Only three men have more victories – Sabathia (176), Roy Halladay (175) and Roy Oswalt (159).

INNINGS
From 2001-11 Buehrle hurled at least 200-innings each season. No other pitcher in baseball had a streak of longer than 7-straight 200 inning efforts the last 11 years (Livan Hernandez and Dan Haren each had a seven year run).

From 2001-11 Buehrle tossed 2,425.1 innings. No man in the game threw more innings (Sabathia was second at 2,364.1 innings).

Those numbers clearly point to the most obvious statement I’ll make in this piece – Buehrle is as stable an option on the hill as there is in the game.

RATIOS
Buehrle owns a career ERA of 3.83, an in the last 11 seasons he’s posted an ERA over 4.28 just one time (4.99 in 2006). He’s also had a mark in the 3′s in eight of the 11 seasons, and for his career his ERA is well below the American League average of 4.43. That’s pretty impressive.

Buehrle has a career WHIP of 1.28. Though he’s been above that mark in three of the last four seasons, he’s also posted a mark over 1.35 in only two of the past 11 seasons. The American League WHIP since 2001 is 1.38 by the way.

STRIKEOUTS
This is where things take a turn for the worse. Buehrle is a solid arm who gets outs and limits runs, but he does that by pitching to contact. Buehrle owns a 5.07 K/9 mark, a full two batters below the big league average. He also has failed to reach his career mark in any of the last three seasons. That’s just awful. As a result his raw strikeout total average for the last three seasons is 104 Ks per season. His former teammate, closer Sergio Santos, had 92 strikeouts last year.

OUTLOOK
Things don’t appear to be any different than they have been over the past decade. Buehrle will take the ball every five days and provide quality innings for the Marlins after signing that four year, $58 million deal. At the same time he is completely deficient in the strikeout department leaving his fantasy value lacking compared to his real world value. The only real concern with Buehrle would be if his arm fell off, and given all the miles on it, that’s always a possibility. But given his decade plus run of health, I’m willing to assume that he is just one of those rare hurlers, like Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine, that just never have arm problems. Maybe it’s because  he throws only throws 85 mph.

By Ray Flowers

Angels/Marlins Spending Like Drunken Sailors

I bemoan the Yankees and Red Sox all the time, and with good reason I believe. Not only does the national media seem to think that they are the only two teams in baseball, they routinely spend money like they are printing it in the basement. So far this offseason those two teams get a pass as it’s the Angels and the Marlins who are playing with Monopoly money.

The Marlins have a new stadium that cost $640 million, and for some reason that has led them to think that they are going to be able to sell it out for the next decade. Good luck with that. The fact of the matter is that the Marlins have had some great teams over the years but the fans just haven’t consistently come to the park (with so much to do in Florida, I can understand why that is the case). Will that change after the moves the team is making? It had better or this will be a disastrous situation in a few years (a cycle that they have unfortunately been through multiple times).

The Marlins fired off the first huge salvo of the the offseason when they made Jose Reyes their new shortstop. Of course, we’re now getting this back and forth from Hanley Ramirez who apparently feels disrespected that the Fish would bring in someone to play his position. Get over yourself Hanley. Reyes is a better defensive shortstop, that’s just the fact, and his addition to the lineup is a huge infusion of talent and skill. Suck it up, get back to full health, and cause some serious damage with your new running mate homie.
Cost: 6 years, $108 million

The Marlins also signed two hurlers to bolster the staff. They added Heath Bell to lock down the ninth inning on a 3-year deal with a fourth year option. They then went out and surprised everyone by adding Mark Buehrle on a four year contract when most didn’t think they were truly in on the lefty until late in the game (I will have write ups on both players in the near future in the ever popular Player Profile series). Bell is a top-10 closer, and while Buehrle has never been an elite arm, he has 11-straight seasons of 200-innings and 10 wins, and no pitcher in the game can match that feat.
Cost: Bell – 3 years, $27 million ($9 million option)
Buehrle – 4 years, $58 million

TOTAL COST: $193 million (plus $9 million option on Bell)

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

The Angels, apparently frustrated that they didn’t get to blow their wad last year on Adrian Gonzalez, Adrian Beltre or Carl Crawford, have gone totally bonkers. Not only did they grab the greatest hitter of our generation, they also added the best starting pitcher on the market for good measure.

Out of nowhere, an I’m talking something akin to the admission by Darth Vader that he was Luke Skywalker’s father, the Angels swooped in and signed Albert Pujols after everyone in the media had him going to the Marlins or Cardinals. The Angels offer was $40 or so million more than the other two teams were reportedly willing to spend. The result is that Pujols will receive the second largest contract in baseball history behind only the 10 year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees. Already 31 years old, I think it’s foolish to give Pujols a 10 year deal, but that’s what it took to obtain his services and Angels’ owner Arte Moreno would not be denied his prize this offseason.
Cost: 10 years, $250-260 million

Needing a compliment for their new toy on offense, the Angels also signed the best pitcher on the free agent market, C.J. Wilson (for my thoughts on what Wilson brings to the table, give his Player Profile a read). Given that estimates all offseason penned Wilson as a pitcher who wanted, and was likely to receive, $100 million, can it be said that the Angels actually got a bargain here? A rotation of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Wilson and Ervin Santana sounds mighty impressive and should cause plenty of AL teams to be Nervous Nancies heading into the 2012 season.
Cost: 5 years, $75 to $77.5 million

TOTAL COST: $325 to 337.5 million

Can money by a championship? We’ll find out as money is flying around this offseason with no regard to the fact that the United States economy is not exactly booming right now. Time will tell, but as we’ve seen many times in sports, throwing money around isn’t always the answer.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August30, 2011

(1) Andrew McCutchen one steal from joining the 20/20 club.

(2) Miguel Cabrera is simply phenomenal yet again.

(3) Carlos Lee on fire of late, RBI streak continues.

(4) Mark Buehrle is boring, but the guy is really good.

(5) Luke Hochevar pitching very well in the second half.

(6) Nick Swisher on fire, six homers in seven games. Has he lived up to my expectations? See 2011 Player Profile: Nick Swisher.

(7) Jose Reyes back from injury while Nelson Cruz is out yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Boring Is As Boring Does

You want boring, don’t read this blog. You want boring, don’t listen to my radio show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio. You want boring, go home.

Why all this boring talk? Because of the main guy I’m gonna highlight today. His name is Mark Buehrle, and word on the street is that even his wife is bored by him. Ah, but is boring necessarily a bad thing? I’d posit, at least in this case, that it’s not.

Buehrle hasn’t won more than 13 games the past three years. He’s never won 20 games, and only once has be won more than 16 (he came in with 19 victories in 2002). Still, he’s won at least 10 games each of the past 11 years.  It doesn’t sound like much, but the only other pitcher who can match that run is CC Sabathia.

He owns a career ERA of 3.80. That’s solid, but unexciting, possibly even boring some might say. Still, hie ERA has been under 3.90 in three of the past four years and his current mark of 3.06 says he will make it four of five years.

Buehrle never strikes anyone out. His career best for a K/9 is 6.05, and he’s now working on a third straight season under five at 4.79.

So why am I talking about Buehrle? Because his boring old self has been pretty amazing of late. How amazing? Buehrle worked his 18th straight outing last night in which he allowed three or fewer earned runs (he tied Frank Smith’s 1909 record). That’s over 100 years people. In those 18 starts he’s also posted a “quality start” (six or more innings pitched with three of fewer earned runs allowed), ready for this, 17 times. Now tell me, do you want that boring guy on your team? I do.

NUMBERS

I know none of you listened when I warned about Jose Bautista and the likely fall his batting average would take in the second half, but you should have. Bautista hit .334 in the first half, but in 22 games since the All-Star break he has hit all of .205. He’s still hitting a strong .309 on the year, but I’ve said it over and over again — even hitting .300 has always been a huge stretch for Bautista who has never hit even .265 in a season.

Adam Dunn is hitting .167 in the second half. Amazingly, that’s seven points better than he batted in the first half.

Aubrey Huff is the Giants leading hitter right now with a .249 average (he has the highest average on the club of any player with enough at-bats to qualify for the batting average title – 3.1 plate appearances per team game). He’s been on fire of late though, finally, hitting .353 in August and .305 over his last 24 games. Finally.

Adam Lind is hitting .196 since the All-Star break. The team says the blame rests with a mechanical flaw in his hack. Let’s hope that is the case, but he is unusable right now in mixed leagues.

Kerry Wood has struck out 8-straight batters to tie the all-time Cubs’ record. Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz also pulled off the trick. With the hot stretch Wood has upped his K/9 mark to 9.64 on the year, still nearly three quarters of a point below his career mark of 10.33.

By Ray Flowers

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers

Opening Day – 2010

With Opening Day 2010 finally upon us, I’ll hit nine quick stories that caught my fancy.

(1) Albert Pujols makes MVP statement.

(2) Jason Heyward hits HR, makes history.

(3) Johan Santana cruises in first start.

(4) Carlos Gonzalez four hits for Rockies.

(5) Carlos Gomez four hits (incl. HR) and a steal.

(6) Garrett Jones blasts two homers.

(7) Shaun Marcum takes no-hitter into 7^th inning.

(8) Jason Frasor blows first save for Blue Jays.

(9) Mark Buehrle tosses 7 scoreless against Indians.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag Mania

Another day, another couple of emails to answer. Hey, you wouldn’t expect anything different from me would you? You all know that I’m here for all of you (how sweet huh?), and I happily answer all the questions I receive, even if it takes me a day or two. Let’s get to it before you start hearing violin’s playing.

I’ve been offered Paul Konerko and Cole Hamels for Tommy Hanson in a 3 man keeper league. I’m currently in 1st place in my division and I have Garret Jones as my current 1st baseman. The balance of my pitching staff is – Greinke, Billingsley, Jimenez, Garza, Brett Anderson, and Slowey (DL).

Here is the balance of my roster: Sandoval, Phillips, G. Jones, Rollins, Youkilis, Markakis, Pence, Hart, Ibanez, N. Cruz, R. Gutierrez, McCutchen, Prado
– Alan

The first thing to keep in mind here is that you can only keep a certain amount of players in any keeper league. Having young talent is obviously a major goal in such a set up, but if you can only protect a handful of guys from year-to-year it doesn’t make any sense to compile a roster of 10 first or second year players unless they can help you win today.

In this case, we have just such a situation. Based upon the statement given, each team can only protect three players. Therefore, trades should be made much more for today, versus next season, in many cases. Someone might want to keep Tommy Hanson in such a league, but honestly, that’s way more of a risk than I would consider. Why? Let’s assume this is a 12-team mixed league. Heck, let’s assume this is a 15-team mixed league. If each team can protect only three guys from year-to-year that means that in order to protect Hanson for next season you would need to view him as one of the top-45 players in the game. I’m certainly not there. Heck, you already have Zack Greinke and Chad Billingsley to choose from if you want to protect a pitcher for 2010, and I would without question protect both of them over Hanson.

Would I therefore accept the deal? You bet I would – though realize you will have to make a secondary move in order to create space no your roster for the two men you will be receiving. Hamels is in line for a strong second half if you ask me, especially when you consider that he has a .344 BABIP mark, far too high, especially for a man who owns a superb 4.74 K/BB mark. And don’t overlook the bounce back season of Konerko (.296-18-64) who is hitting .322 with five homers and 15 RBI in his last 15 games.

Who would you recommend out of the following pitcher available (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV), keeper league:

Brett Anderson
Jonathan Sanchez
Jeff Niemann
Manny Parra
C.J. Wilson

My pitching staff looks like this: Johan Santana, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, Clay Buchholz, Scott Baker, Jorge De La Rosa, Phil Hughes, J.P. Howell, DL – Lindstrom, DL – Wang, DL – Maine

Should I just wait for Lindstrom and Wang to come off the DL and not use up the waiver move (only have 3 left for the year)?
– Matthew, Toronto

Not knowing how many players can be kept, I’m at a bit of a loss here to recommend a guy.

If you are looking to add a guy to help right now, Jeff Niemann has been pretty good of late with a victory in each of his last five decisions as his ERA has fallen from 4.53 on May 23rd to 3.61.

Jonathan Sanchez has thrown consecutive “quality starts” including that no-hitter, but it’s tough to recommend a guy who has walked 47 batters in 84.2 innings.

Brett Anderson has allowed just one run in his last four appearances totaling 26.1 innings to drop his ERA to 4.25. Still, the youngster needs to prove he can handle the grind of a full season.

Manny Parra has looked rejuvenated since he returned to the Brewers allowing only one run over 13 innings while walking only four men.

C.J. Wilson continues to get save chances as Frank Francisco just cannot stay on the field. He owns a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.17 K/BB mark, merely average for a late inning reliever.

Chien-Ming Wang, I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but at the same time he has been so awful I would just leave him on the DL until he proved worthy of activation.

Matt Lindstrom continues to progress from his elbow issues and hopes to be back within two weeks, max. Still, I want to see him prove his worth as well before I activate him.

You have two choices Matt. You can grab Wilson since you currently have only one closer on your roster. However, that might indicate that you have decided to “punt” saves in which case there is little reason to add Wilson, especially since he isn’t likely to hold on to the job the rest of the way (Francisco is getting over a bout of pneumonia). Therefore I would recommend picking up Jeff Niemann. He clearly doesn’t have an upside remotely approaching the others, but I see Anderson, Sanchez and Parra as having more downside than the man from the Rays.

And finally —

Kudos to Mark Buehrle who threw just the 18th perfect game in baseball history today (including Don Larson’s outing in the 1956 World Series). Buehrle should name his next kid after DeWayne Wise who caught what would have been a home run as he crashed into the wall in the bottom of the ninth inning (he was a defensive replacement in the ninth by the way). What a game. Take that retirement talk.

By Ray Flowers