Commonalities Wanted

There’s no theme whatsoever to my article today. I just threw everything into a hopper and wrote about the names that fell out. Oh don’t worry, it’s really insightful stuff, there just isn’t a common thread to tie everything together.

Coco Crisp has been activated by the A’s. He hit .590 with five RBI during his rehab work in the minors signaling that his body might finally be right, finally. Still, there are about seven outfielders with the A’s club, so it remains to be seen if he will have a spot in the daily lineup, especially since his skills are so similar to those of Rajai Davis.

Mark DeRosa’s season is over as he will need surgery to repair his injured wrist. In the first year of a $12 million two year contract, DeRosa gave the Giants all of one homer, 10 RBI and 93 at-bats. That’s almost as bad an investment as The Bachelor’s Jake Pavelka made in his lady friend, Vienna Girardi. Oh stop acting like you don’t watch the show – we all know you do.

Josh Hamilton is back, and it appears that he is better than ever before. Josh is hitting .337, has a 16 game hitting streak, and is sporting a .981 OPS. Back in his “breakout” 2008 effort he hit .304 with a .901 OPS. He’s frighteningly talented.

Trevor Hoffman has been awful for most of the year, everyone knows that. However, he has improved tremendously of late and appears on the cusp of reclaiming his 9th inning role. “We kind of talked about that several times today,” manager Ken Macha said. “We’ll see how some things go. That is two good outings in a row, so I’ll talk to him [Thursday] and see how he’s feeling about himself.” If you are a John Axford owner you’ll want to hold on, but make sure Hoffman isn’t on waivers if you play in a deep league.

Jamie Moyer is almost old enough to join AARP as he is 47 years old. Amazingly, he has stuck around long enough to pile up 265 victories. That total places him 10th all-time in victories by a lefty, an it’s also one behind the immortal Bob Feller and three behind Jim Palmer. Need some more info about just how amazing Moyer’s career has been? Since turning 30 he has won 231 games, the sixth most ever from that age to the end of a player’s career. To put that win total in perspective, Roy Oswalt has 142 victories, Tim Hudson 155 and Roy Halladay 156 — in their entire careers.

Buster Posey, everyone’s darling when he was called up, has hit the skids of late with a mere .186 average and a .524 OPS over his last 43 at-bats. His average is still shade over .300 at .303, but his .421 SLG is a pretty pathetic number for a first sacker (the NL average for the position is .458). I know it borders on heresy in some corners, but Posey really needs to pick it up or he could start to lose playing time (he isn’t in the lineup on Tuesday night as Pablo Sandoval is at first with Juan Uribe at third).

Mike Stanton, who I spoke of yesterday in my Around the Horn, June 21st video, deserves to be mentioned again. Here is, in written word, what I spoke of yesterday; you simply cannot have success in the big leagues if you strikeout more than 40 percent of the time. I know it’s a miniscule sample size we’re breaking down with the talented Fish, but 19 whiffs in 43 at-bats gives him a K-rate of 44.2 percent. Chris Davis, basically demoted to the minor because he whiffs too often, owns a K-rate of 34.7 percent in his career. Other noted purveyors of the strikeout follow with their career K-rates in parenthesis: Ryan Howard (32.3), Adam Dunn (32.4), Mark Reynolds (38.2) and Jack Cust (39.1). As you can tell from that list you can be mighty successful in the bigs even if you pile up copious amounts of strikeouts, but if Stanton wants to make his mark this season he’s gonna have to knock like 10 percentage points off his current rate.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 4, 2010

(1) Grady Sizemore done for the year – microfracture knee surgery.

(2) Carlos Beltran has success in extended spring game.

(3) No surgery for Brett Anderson?

(4) Vladimir Guerrero returns from injured eye.

(5) Alex Gordon hitting well, but won’t be back soon with Royals.

(6) Gary Matthews Jr. was designated. Still owned nearly $20 million on current deal.

(7) Pat Burrell with Giants, John Bowker demoted. For more make sure you read my most recent Five Questions article which also talks about Gordon Beckham losing playing time, and Matt Wieters struggles.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May17, 2010

(1) Edwin Encarnacion activated off DL as Travis Snider is placed on it.

(2) Orioles get good news with Brian Roberts and Mike Gonzalez.

(3) Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury still working way back.

(4) Nick Johnson has wrist surgery – out 4-6 weeks.

(5) Jimmy Rollins back from DL.

(6) Mark DeRosa hopes to return next week and be effective.

(7) Doug Davis to DL giving Manny Parra a chance to start.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May13, 2010

(1) Mat Latos pitches 1-hitter against the Giants.

(2) Bud Norris continues to dominate the Cardinals.

(3) Hunter Pence finally hitting for Astros.

(4) Brad Lidge’s elbow checks out OK.

(5) Orioles get more bad news in bullpen – Jim Johnson might need Tommy John surgery.

(6) Corey Patterson called up to replace Nolan Reimold.

(7) Jarrod Washburn to sit out 2010 season?

(8) Mark DeRosa’s wrist in bad shape – 2010 in jeopardy?

(9) Jarrod Saltalamacchia having big time throwing issues.

By Ray Flowers

My Grown Up X-Mas List

This is the most wonderful time of the year. Besides being lyrics from a song, it is also how I feel. I love Halloween, I gussie the place all up with scary sounds, figures, even had a fog machine cranking this year, but I still love the Christmas season the most. I even enjoy, and don’t share this with anyone, hot chocolate and those sappy holiday movies that they play on Lifetime (did I just lose my street cred?).

Before I head out to spend the next couple of days with my extended family, I thought I would list a few things that I hope people in the sports world will either find in their stocking or under their tree come Christmas morning (for those of you who don’t celebrate Christmas, Happy Holidays).

To the San Jose Sharks: Playoff success to avoid a mutiny amongst the fans.

To the 49ers and the Raiders: A winning season. Heck, even an 8-8 mark would be terrific.

To Grady Sizemore, Jose Reyes, Coco Crisp, Erik Bedard, Troy Glaus and Josh Hamilton: A full season of health. If you missed my review of the Glaus to Atlanta signing, click on Glaus Signs With Braves.

To Matt Holliday: I hope your agent, the reviled Scott Boras, can deliver the goods on what he surely promised would be a deal approaching $150 million. Right now it doesn’t seem like anyone has any interest in ponying up dollars that even remotely approach that total.

To Johnny Damon: Another Boras client, I wish him. Heck, I don’t wish him much of anything as he already has a beautiful wife to come home to.

To Brandon Morrow: I hope Santa brings you a heaping helping of control for the holiday. I’m still shocked that the Mariners gave up you so easily. You can read my analysis of the trade in The Other Deal.

To the New York Yankees: I wish you — well my mother told me if I didn’t have something nice to say then I shouldn’t say it, and in the spirit of the season I’m gonna stick to that. I will list a few of my “Tweets” from the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page that should make what I think pretty obvious.

“Yankees payroll last season was $220 mil, $77.8 mil MORE than any other club. In fact, MORE than 11 other teams payrolls!”

“Yankees only team to pay luxury tax in 2009 – $25.7 mil. They have paid all seven years of existence, $174 of $190 raised overall.”

To the San Francisco Giants: I wish you a heart like the Tin Man in the Wizard of Oz. Hell, I wish that you also had courage like the Cowardly Lion and a brain like the Scarecrow. Are you really going to just sit there knowing full well that your offense is putrid and do nothing to improve it? Newsflash, 2-years and $12 million for Mark DeRosa likely won’t be enough for a guy who thinks he is worth 3/$30 (even if he isn’t worth that). Do something big will ya Giants? Wait, wasn’t I supposed to keep this positive? Sorry for slipping.

To Garrett Atkins: I wish a return to prominence from the one-time borderline star. I’m not talking a return to his previously phat totals (.329-29-130-117 in 2006), but a nice .285-25-85 season would be great.

To Justin Duchscherer: I wish him peace. I hope he returns to prominence on the field, be it as a reliever or a starter, and I hope he got the help he needed to deal with his clinical depression. In fact, I wish the same for Joey Votto who also dealt with some tough times after losing his father.

At this time of year it’s good to remember what is truly important in life. Homers and shutouts are great, but it’s people that truly matter. So give thanks, wish someone a happy holiday season, and don’t be afraid to extend a helping hand to someone who might need it. Tis’ the season to be jolly remember?

BREAKING DOWN MATT CAPPS TO NATS

By Ray Flowers

Moving Money: Bradley for Silva

Peanut butter and jelly. Ham an eggs. Eggnog and rum.

All of those thing go together almost as well as a deal in baseball where teams swap a couple of players with big-time salaries around their necks. Just such a deal was worked out on Friday as the Mariners sent their deadweight – Carlos Silva – to the Cubs in exchange for volatile outfielder Milton Bradley. I never thought I would write the following sentence, but here it is – I love the Milton Bradley portion of this deal. I know, shocking huh? Let’s break down each guy.

MILTON BRADLEY
The Contract: Bradley has 2-years and $21 million left on his contract. The Mariners will be Bradley’s eighth team.

The Quote: “Obviously, in this case, it did not work out how we planned, which was also the reason I sent Milton home,” Cubs’ GM Jim Hendry said. “(That’s) not going to be tolerated, to treat our fans, teammates and members of the media the way he did.”

The Numbers: I’ve written these facts time after time, but here they are again. Despite all his skills, Bradley has:

* One 20-HR season (22 in 2008).
* One 70-RBI season (77 in 2008).
* One 75-run season (78 in 2008).
* One season of more than 415 ABs – one (516 in 2004).

Doesn’t matter how talented you are skill wise if you can’t stay on the field long enough to flash those skills. To further illustrate this fact, here is a look at his pace, per 162 games, in his career:

.277-20-76-86-13

That is certainly a fine season, but it’s no better than the kind of work the world witnessed from Mark DeRosa last year (.250-23-78-78-3) and no one was overly excited by that performance were they?

The Fit: The Mariners could certainly use a middle of the order presence as they have yet to bring back Russell Branyan or sign a big bat like Jason Bay, so the addition of Bradley is a good one. Still, if the Mariners are expecting on Bradley making it out onto the field more than 120 times in 2010 they are deluding themselves.

CARLOS SILVA
The contract: Silva has 2-years and $25 million left on his contract. The Mariners will send $9 million to the Cubs to help cover the cost of this contract.

The Numbers: Three times Silva has won at least 11 games, and in 2005 he posted a 3.44 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Alas, things haven’t gone well, at all, since that point. In 2006, Silva went 11-15 with a 5.94 ERA, he followed that up with a 13-14 mark with a 4.19 ERA in ’07, and then things really got ugly. Silva, in his first year in Seattle, tossed 153.1 innings, won four games against 15 loses, and posted a 6.46 ERA. Things got even worse in 2009 as injuries limited him to 30.1 innings and a 8.60 ERA. Think of it this way. Over his last 34 starts, a full season of work for a top of the rotation arm, Silva has gone 5-18 with a 6.81 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and a 1.84 K/BB rate. If you posted numbers like that in high school you’d be on the bench, but in the world of major league baseball you make millions for it.

The Fit: Terrible. Silva first has to prove he is healthy, and even if he does that the fact is that he simply isn’t anything better than an average major league pitcher – at best. With an inability to strike anyone out (3.78 K/9 in his career), and a HR/9 rate of 1.13 (far too high for a guy who will try to pitch in the Windy City), this doesn’t look like a good fit at all.

THE VERDICT

Again, no matter how much I dislike Bradley and his tired, worn out act, there is only one player here who could be an All-Star in 2010. Furthermore, there is only one player here who appears to even have a chance to be better than replacement level. I know the Cubs wanted to rid themselves of the headache that is Bradley, but they really, and I mean really, took a huge chance here in trading the talented Bradley for a guy who hasn’t resembled a big league pitcher since 2007, and even that is being kind.

By Ray Flowers

More of the Same

Today is more of the same, and by that I mean I’m going to break down a handful of the players whose names are in the news as free agents looking to strike it rich.

The Braves need to move salary, and their goal is to move Derek Lowe and the 3-years, and $45 million left on his deal. As you might expect, they haven’t found any takers on the contract so they are apparently considering moving Javier Vazquez and his $11.5 million deal, potentially to the Angels. This would be a bad baseball move for the Braves. Sure Vazquez is coming off a career best season of a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 238 Ks, but he was their best pitcher last year and is about as consistent an arm as you could ever hope to find once you leave the ranks of the superstars. The move might make financial sense, especially since the Braves appear highly unlikely to sign him to an extension when his deal runs out at the end of the 2010 season, but on the field, not so much. As for Lowe, here is what he said when asked by the media about the Braves apparent desire to move him after his worst season since 2004 (4.67 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). “I don’t think it’s a matter of if anymore. It’s just a matter of when… “Nobody made them give me a four-year, $60 million contract. There wasn’t a ransom or anybody holding a gun to their heads… I would have never even considered going there if I knew that ultimately this was going to happen.” I don’t know if I believe that, we are taking about $60 million, but Lowe certainly has a point. If the Braves were going to bail on him if he had a rough couple of months, why did they bother signing him in the first place?

Some other rumors —

Looks like Nick Johnson will be headed to the Yankees. The latest report says that he is on the verge of signing a one year deal for about $5.5 million. As I wrote on BaseballGuys’ Twitter page today – “Yankees want a DH that can play the field, show athleticism. Of course, my first thoughts go to Nick Johnson.” It’s a bit of an odd signing and one that might signal that Johnny Damon will be in a new uni in 2010.

After apparently losing out on Johnson, the Giants are still in need of a corner infield bat. A name that continues to be linked to them, more because of need than because of the probability of a deal actually being struck, is Adrian Beltre. Though his stick failed last season (.265-8-44), Beltre can still hit .270 with 20 homers, and he plays a fine third base. Problem is he wants something like 4-years and $40 million, and though I have no inside knowledge of the Giants front office, I can’t think they would get within $10 million of that figure.

The Cardinals likely won’t be able to bring back utility man Mark DeRosa. Seems like the player, and his agent, have grown a bit weary of waiting for the Cardinals to decide what they are going to do with Matt Holliday. In an odd twist, the Cardinals appear to be tiring of the delay with Holliday who continues to dry to squeeze them for more dough. Is it possible that they could end up with neither player in 2010? Looks possible at this point. Could DeRosa end up with the Giants? Certainly could happen if they are willing to give him the $30 million I suggested as a potential figure with Beltre.

Ricky Nolasco signed a 1-year, $3.8 million deal to remain with the Marlins. This is a good singing for a guy who was really unlucky last season (.336 BABIP despite a 9.49 K/9 mark and a 4.43 K/BB rate). Now the club will turn its sights to Josh Johnson who wants something like $42 million, basically double the $23 million that the Fish have reportedly offered. That’s a pretty wide gulf to cross.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Second Base

In my continuing trip down memory lane I’ll review the second base position to see how my prediction for the top-10 at the position panned out (the following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season).

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

1. Ian Kinsler

2. Brian Roberts

3. Chase Utley

4. Brandon Phillips

5. Dustin Pedroia

6. Dan Uggla

7. Robinson Cano

8. Mark DeRosa

9. Kelly Johnson

10. Rickie Weeks

Kinsler was injured yet again and hit a career worst .253 making this call a bust right? Well, not really. Kinsler went 30/30 with 31 homers and 31 steals, as he also knocked in 86 runners while crossing home plate 101 times. Nothing wrong that that effort at all.

Roberts is historically good, and I’ve written it before. He has produced at least 100 runs, 30 steals and 40 doubles in 3-straight years. It may not sound like much, but it is an all-time major league record for second sackers.

Utley would have been the #2 guy on the list if it wasn’t for concerns about his surgically repaired hip (remember this was back in January when we thought Utley could miss April, and yes, I would have still had Kinsler higher than Utley last season even if dude was healthy). All Utley did was go 20/20 for the first time while hitting 31 bombs with 93 RBI and 112 runs.

You are pretty darn good when you’re an afterthought after the top group despite going 20/20 in each of the past three years. If you have to “settle” for Phillips consider yourself in good hands.

Dustin Pedroia didn’t repeat his MVP effort of 2008 (.326-17-83-118-20), but that was never going to happen anyway – though he got awfully close. He settled in and had a fine season one that was well worth a top-5 selection at the position (.296-15-72-115-20).

Uggla is a beast at the dish, a fact I recounted in Player Movement Thoughts.

Cano was, simply put, amazing. He hit a career best 25 homers, knocked in his second best total of 85 runners, scored a career-high 103 runs all the while batting .320 with 48 doubles. Time to include this man in the discussion of outright stars at the position.

DeRosa was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals, and dealt with a left wrist injury that eventually required surgery when the season was over. He wasn’t great, but it’s not like a .250-23-78-78 line is weak if you play second place.

Johnson completely tanked – completely. After 2-straight years of at least .276-12-68-86-9, Johnson struggled all year hitting just .224 with eight homers and 29 RBI in just 303 ABs. Eventually the Braves turned to Martin Prado who hit .307 and now appears the favorite to start at second for the club in 2010.

I was higher on Weeks than anyone on staff. Though mid-May, I was looking like a genius. Unfortunately, Weeks was once again struck by another wrist injury, and as a result he appeared in a mere 37 games. Still, if we quadruple his effort we would end up with a .272-36-96-112-8 line which would have made me look like a genius. What could have been.

By Ray Flowers

Knowing When to Walk Away

What do you do when, seemingly at the pinnacle of your profession, you look around and realize that you are missing out on time with your family because of your job? If you had the ability to financially support yourself and your kin, wouldn’t you do something different? One major league ballplayer who is contemplating doing just that is discussed below. I’ll also touch on a couple of injured players, as well as a guy whose name is a bit confusing to me.

No one seems to believe him, but Mark Buehrle continues to maintain that he will retire at the end of next season at just 32 years of age. “Everybody in here is calling B.S. on it,” Buehrle said. “And it could be. Those two years could fly by and I could say I’m not ready to retire. But today? I don’t see myself playing past this contract.” Buehrle has said this before, in fact he dropped the bombshell in the Chicago Tribune in spring training this season. Buehrle has two kids that he wants to spend more time with, and since they live in Arizona with his wife, there just isn’t enough time for him to spend with his family. “Look, I’m having fun. It’s not like I want to quit. If I didn’t have a family, I’d play until I was 60, or until they kicked me out. I just don’t want to miss my kids growing up.” Given the gazillions of dollars these guys make some are always surprised when guys walk away, but Mark will have made more than $50 million by the end of next season. I don’t know about where you live, but that will buy a whole lot of water wings and swimming lessons where I live.

Ryan Dempster apparently has a broken right big toe. As a result, he was placed on the DL today. No word yet on how long he will be out of action, or for that matter exactly how the injury occurred. Being that it’s the foot that he “pushes” off the rubber with, I’ve got to think that we are looking at more than two weeks here, but I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night so I could certainly be wrong. Dempster heads to the DL with a 5-5 record, 4.09 ERA and a K/9 mark of 7.58, and don’t say you are disappointed with that effort after last years 17-6 mark with a 2.96 ERA, because if you do feel that way you just were listening to us when we told you a regression was coming.

Mark DeRosa, aka the “Savior” if you ask some people in St. Louis, has been placed on the DL due to his wrist injury. Having already missed a week of action, and with the All-Star break approaching, it only made sense for the team to put him on the DL (retroactive to July 1st). I’ve said it before, but let me repeat a few salient facts with the guy. (1) DeRosa owns a career .277 batting average and has never hit .300 in a season (currently .261). (2) DeRosa has one season in his career with more than 13 home runs (21 in ’08, he has 13 this season). (3) DeRosa has one season of more than 75 RBI (87 last season, 50 thus far this year). I’m not saying DeRosa isn’t a valuable bat, he certainly is, but at the same time for a guy who has appeared in 12 major league seasons and has only once hit more than 20 home runs or produced more than 75 RBI there is likely too much pressure being placed upon the 34 year olds shoulders. He isn’t a difference maker.

Jose Reyes suffered yet another setback in his attempt to return to the field. Reyes had a cortisone shot into his injured right hamstring, and I don’t know about you but that doesn’t sound very fun to me (I had one in my elbow back when I played, and believe me when I tell you that no one feels too comfortable when they see a doctor walking at them with a needle that is five inches long). This latest treatment seems to signal that Reyes won’t be back for at least another couple of weeks as he will likely have to shut everything down for a few days to let the effects of the shot set in. My best guess? I’m not looking for Reyes until the first week of August.

The Rex Brothers were signed by the Rockies today. Oops, that is only one guy isn’t it? The lefty who has a whopping 132 Ks in 94 innings for the University of Lipscomb this past season, may end up using his hard slider and mid 90′s heater out of the bullpen instead of the rotation for the Rocks as he lacks a true off-speed pitch (one of the reasons he might be shifted to the pen).

By Ray Flowers