Draft Day Challenge, April 25

Fantasy baseball is about adapting to change, whether it’s do to injury or performance. Keeping up with the Jones’, DraftDay.com has decided to change things up in their partnership with BaseballGuys by offering a new contest for you to enter in daily fantasy baseball.

*** After detailing the game I’ll list for you some of the best plays of the day at the bottom of the piece.

MLB Rapid Fire Game at DraftDay
There are five 1-on-1 matchups for Friday’s MLB Games (this contest is obviously for Friday, not Thursday). If you’re able to go 3-for-5, come on you can do that, you will double your entry fee (the cost is just $1.10 to enter).

What’s the Special Offer?
DraftDay.com is offering a 100 percent money-back guarantee if you don’t win (two or less correct picks) your Rapid Fire game this Friday (only on $1.10 level).

Too good to be true? Hardly. Here are the rules.
1. Make your picks and enter for $1.10 (only the $1.10 is eligible for money-back offer).
2. If you don’t have a DraftDay account, make one when prompted.

For those who feel think a mere 3-for-5 day is too simple you can play DraftDay’s Rapid Fire Max games where if you go 5-of-5 your winnings end up being 20 times your entry fee (there’s no refund action in this game though).

When is This Contest?
Picks have to be submitted by first pitch on Friday. You can edit your player selections up until game-time.

So to enter the contest click on this link to DraftDay.com. Come on folks, if John Buck can go 3-for-5 so can you.

THURSDAY MATCHUPS

For those of you looking for some help for today, here are some solid matchups.

CATCHERS
1. J.P. Arencibia
2. Miguel Olivo

JPA has gone deep and produced six hits in 12 at-bats against Hiroki Kuroda. JPA also blasted his AL leading 8th bomb Wednesday.

Olivo owns Edwin Jackson in their limited battles. Olivo has gone deep twice with six RBIs as he has produced four hits in just eight at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Mike Napoli
2. Greg Dobbs

Not only is Napoli hitting .274 with an .889 OPS but his total of 26 RBIs leads baseball.

Dobbs has only nine at-bats against Edwin Jackson (two hits), but he’s always been a better hitter against righties in his career. Honestly, it’s not like that is really saying that much.

SECOND BASE
1. Steve Lombardozzi
2. Jamey Carroll

It looks like Lombardozzi might get a chance to start at second base for the Nationals as Danny Espinosa‘s struggles continue (.155/.197/.293 in 58 ABs). Lombardozzi is batting .345 and gets to face Bronson Arroyo, not exactly the toughest right in the game (Lombardozzi’s OPS is .096 points higher versus righties than lefties in his career).

Carroll has three hits, two runs and an RBI in his last two games and in his career against the Rangers he has hit .360 with a .875 OPS over 86 at-bats. I know, pretty impressive for a guy who owns a career mark of .697 in the OPS column.

THIRD BASE
1. Josh Donaldson
2. Manny Machado

Machado gets to face the struggling Parker of the Athletics while Donaldson faces the Orioles Hammel. Donaldson has five hits and four RBIs in his last three games and Machado has 10 hits in his last seven games while he has driven in seven runners.

SHORTSTOP
1. Josh Rutledge
2. Robert Andino

Rutledge is 4-for-9 against the D’backs Cahill and he has a hit in 5-straight. He’s also gone deep three times, while stealing five bases, in 20 games. The 18 runs scored is also an impressive mark (eight in eight games).

Andino was named the starter for the Mariners after the team grew a bit weary of Brendan Ryan‘s poor hitting. It’s not like Andino is an accomplished hitter in his own right, but he is batting .364 the past week and he does have one hit in three at-bats against the Angels’ Richards.

OUTFIELD
1. Vernon Wells
2. Ichiro Suzuki

Both of the Yankees outfielders get to face Mark Buehrle, a pitcher they both own. Wells has been insanely effective against MB hitting, get this, .489 with two bombs in 47 at-bats. Ichiro has only hit .431 against MB in 51 at-bats. Slacker.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Hiroki Kuroda
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Garrett Richards
4. Trevor Cahill

Kuroda faces the Blue Jays, a team he held to one run back on April 20th over 7.1 innings. In four career starts against the Jays he has a 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 4.40 K/BB ratio.

Slowey has a 1.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through four starts, and in each game he has held the opposition to two or fewer runs. He doesn’t beat himself with six walks on the year, and for what it’s worth his one start against the Cubs he punched out 10 batters in six innings.

Richards faces the Mariners a team he has racked up 14 Ks an a 3.27 ERA against over 11 career innings. Richards also had a 2.55 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over 17.2 innings this season.

Cahill has a tough matchup against the Rockies, but he’s pitching at home where he has had success this season (3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18 Ks in 18 IP). He also held the Rockies to three earned runs in seven innings the last time he faced the Rockies, and that was in Colorado.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk.2: What Did We Learn?

 Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

INEXPENSIVE OFFENSIVE HEROES

Mike Aviles, 2B/3B/SS ($75,000 Daily Joust salary): The Red Sox shortstop can hit. He owns a career .288 batting average and is currently batting .290 through 31 at-bats. He’s also popped two long balls, though his power upside is likely sneaking into the double digits in dingers. He also posses speed, he’s stolen 14 bags each of the last two seasons. Given his positional flexibility he’s a nice add to any lineup. His value is likely still heading up though as he appears likely to spend an awful lot of time in the leadoff spot for the Red Sox with the shoulder injury to Jacoby Ellsbury that will keep him out of action for an estimated six weeks.

Yunieksy Betancourt, SS ($68K): He’s actually played second base in five of his six games this year, he’s only played nine games at any position other than shortstop prior to this season, but it certainly hasn’t affected hit ability with the twig in his hands. Yunieksy is batting a robust .389 through 18 at-bats, but let’s not get too carried away here. He hasn’t walked a single time in six games, hasn’t stolen a base, and has scored only three times in six contests. Still, I’m not going to ignore his hot start at the plate, but I’m just trying to be realistic here with a guy who has hit .269 with a .293 OBP for his career.

Matt Carpenter, 1B ($66K): A hot pick up, Carpenter has had himself a whopper of a start to the season. Through eight games he has hit .409. That alone would be exciting. When you add in the 10 RBIs that he’s also produced it’s time to get a bit giddy. Carpenter hit .302 last year in 130 games at Triple-A, but he also hit only 12 homers not showing much pop, something you need from a corner infield option. Lance Berkman is also close to a return to the lineup, and don’t forget that Allen Craig (knee) is likely to be back in a couple of weeks making at-bats possibly hard to come by for Carpenter. There’s nothing wrong with rolling with him in the short-term though (over at Fleaflicker Carpenter has recoded the same average fantasy point total as Paul Konerko and Troy Tulowitzki).

Shelly Duncan, OF ($66K): The Indians lineup is about to get a bit crowded with the addition of Johnny Damon, and the question remains will that eat into the playing time of Duncan. If PT is determined by performance in Cleveland than Duncan shouldn’t be worried about losing any of it, at least not right now. Through eight games he has flashed his trademark power with two homers, a double and six RBI. He’s also walked an impressive eight times helping him to Bondsian .485 OBP. Given that he’s also hitting .320 right now you’d be wise to consider him for your starting lineup since he’s also working on a 5-game hitting streak.

Mark Ellis ($72K): Why am I bothering with a guy who is batting .235 with no homers and just two RBIs? Did you notice that his OBP is .366? Or how about the most interesting number in his line – 10 runs scored in nine games. Matt Kemp and Andre Either have to slow down as the season progresses, but if Ellis maintains a spot in the daily lineup, and is hitting out of the two hole, he’ll end up being a pretty valuable source of runs, and that average will certainly climb as well.

LOSER OF THE WEEK

Kendrys Morales ($110K): From April 9th through April 15th Morales had, wait for it, one hit in 18 at-bats. Given that he was also 0-for-5 on April 8th that means he has one hit in 23 at-bats. I know it’s early, and I always talk about sample size being so important, so I’m not going to hammer Morales – yet. I will say this, which is the same thing I was saying three weeks ago when people were going bonkers to add Morales after he had a hot stretch to end Spring Training, the guy is coming back from an injury after missing more than a season and a half. As great as he looked to end spring he has looked equally putrid once games started counting (.200-0-0 through 30 at-bats). The game just isn’t that easy folks.

PITCHERS WHO ARE PERFORMING

Bartolo Colon ($173K): He’s 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and an extremely impressive 7.00 K/BB ratio. I’m still not buying it. In a quirk of the schedule, thanks to MLB’s desire to play in Japan, Colon has pitched against the Mariners in all three of his games. I think, on a good day, that I could get many of the Mariners batters out. Be careful not to overemphasize his early season success.

Kyle Drabek ($195K): The former 1st round draft pick has killed it in two starts as he’s learned to just relax when guys get on base versus over thinking and trying to over analyze everything. He’s 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but do two starts wipe out a miserable 2011 effort that say him post a 6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP an a 0.93 K/BB ratio (yes, he walked more batters than he struck out last season)? I need more than two starts for me to feel like he’s totally over the hump.

Barry Zito ($215 K): Currently the 77th most expensive SP in the DailyJoust game, Zito has pitched his brains out – so far (1-0, 1.13 ERA in 16 IP). Be honest with your assessment here though. The last time he posted an ERA under 4.00 was 2006. The last time he had a winning record was 2006. He’s also struck out only eight batters in 16 innings and his current walk rate of 0.56 per nine, well I somehow don’t think he’s going to keep that up since he’s never posted a season long mark below 3.06, and that was way back in 2002.

DAILY CONTEST

MLB – Tournament – Mon, Apr 16th – King Arthur’s $50BB Hi Cap Daily Free For All over at DailyJoust.com.

Single entry. No entry fee. $50 prize pool payable in Bonus Bucks. Bonus Bucks can be used as entry fee for an cash entry contests on Daily Joust. Top 15 places paid. Winner also gets a King Arthur badge.

Prize: Top

•1 – $10.00
•2 – $5.00
•23 – $5.00

etc. (it pays out down to 15th place).

Also, if you deposit $25 in your account you can get a 40% deposit bonus, and who doesn’t like free money?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June30, 2011

(1) Mark Ellis now a Rockie. How does that effect NL-only leagues?

(2) Ty Wigginton on fire for the Rockies.

(3) Josh Johnson shoulder update.

(4) Derek Jeter hopes to return Monday from calf injury.

(5) Erik Bedard to DL, Rich Harden off it.

(6) Chris Davis to get shot with Rangers?

PS – Congratulations to Crissy who won the DraftStreet.com competition last night.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June23, 2011

(1) Who on the Twins isn’t hurt? The names are astounding: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Kevin Slowey, Joe Nathan… Despite that, they just keep on winning.

(2) A’s demote Daric Barton, called up Chris Carter. Will also use Jemile Weeks at second with Mark Ellis serving as a utility player.

(3) Bullpen situations – Astros (Mark Melancon), Dodgers (Jonathan Broxton), Rangers (Nefatli Feliz).

(4) Ryan Vogelsong making history for the Giants.

By Ray Flowers

Breaking Down the NL

I wrote my weekly National League breakdown piece today. Here are a few of the tidbits that really stuck out for me.

* Daniel Hudson leads the NL with 79.2 innings pitched since August 1st.

* Tommy Hanson has a 2.77 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last 14 starts. He is 2-6 in that time.

* Carlos Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.63 ERA over his last 12 appearances.

* Scott Rolen has 20 homers on the year but only three in his last 50 games.

* Melvin Mora is hitting .325 with 17 RBI in the month of September.

* Clay Hensley has a 2.25 ERA and a K per inning over 72 frames.

* Bud Norris has 152 Ks over 147.2 innings.

* Rod Barajas has five homers in 59 at-bats with the Dodgers.

* Randy Wolf has a 2.56 ERA over his last 10 starts.

* Carlos Beltran is hitting .329 with a .991 OPS in the month of September.

* Ryan Madson has made 42 appearances since the All-Star break with a 1.32 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.

* The Pirates have only only player who is hitting above .250 while qualifying for the batting title (502 plate appearances). It’s Andrew McCutchen at .284.

* Jon Jay is hitting a mere .214 over his last 25 games.

* Will Venable is batting an insane .529 over his last nine starts.

*Aubrey Huff is leading the Giants in the Triple Crown categories (.291-26-85).

* Adam Dunn has at least 37 homers and 92 RBI in 7-straight years. There has only been one longer streak in the annals of the game; Rafael Palmeiro had a stretch of 9-straight years from 1995-2003.

To read the entire article click on the link to National League Breakdown.

Anyone out there notice that Mark Ellis is hitting .400 in September? His season has been a disappointment with only four homers and six steals after back-to-back 10/10 efforts the past two years, but his .281 batting would be his best mark since a career best effort of .316 in 2005.

What the heck is wrong with Jonathan Papelbon? It’s always hard to judge relievers on the fly given how small of a sample size we have to deal with, but his work of late has been awful – and that is with a capital “A.” He has made nine appearances in September during which time he has a 10.61 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP and a .372 BAA. At the same time he has a rather amazing total of 18 punchouts in just 9.1 innings. His late push in the K category has upped his season long K/9 mark to 10.11, his fourth straight year above ten, though his BB/9 mark is a career worst of 3.69 (more than a run above his 2.55 career mark). I tend to think he is just missing his spots right now, though this late season run of putrid production clearly won’t lock him into the 9th inning next season, not when Daniel Bard continues to deal. Bard has more than a K per inning this season (73 in 72.1 IP), owns a 1.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, and has been amazingly effective in his two season big league career (2.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.06 K/9, .199 BAA).

Justin Upton’s season is likely over because of that shoulder injury of his. He is visiting Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion today, but with a week left there is zero reason for him to return to game action even if he gets a positive report. That means he will finish the year with a .273 average, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 73 runs and 17 steals in 132 games. Every one of those numbers is smaller than his effort from 2009 (.300-26-86-84-20 in 138 games). In fact, his OPS dropped exactly .100 points down to .799 as he racked up 15 more punchouts (152). Still, he could be undervalued on draft day next season as he clearly has 30 homer, 20 steal potential.

By Ray Flowers

It's an Odd World

I was struck by quite a few oddities on this day as I sat down to pen this entry, so I just went with that theme for today.

Mat Latos was reportedly hitting 97 mph on the radar gun last night in his seven shutout innings against the Giants. Latos was almost matched on the night by the Giants Jonathan Sanchez who allowed only one run in his seven innings as the Giants lost 1-0. Moreover, Sanchez struck out 10 while allowing only one hit in the loss. Three points. (1) The last time that the Giants lost a game in which they allowed only one hit World War I was happening – it was September 22nd, 1917. (2) Latos is a potential stud. I worry though that the Padres will limit him to 150-160 innings, so it might be wise to ride him for a while and then move him to a leaguemate who isn’t aware that his innings will be limited. (3) I keep saying it, and people keep laughing at me, but Sanchez just might end up being as valuable as Clayton Kershaw in 2010. Seriously.

The Cubs are a mess, and Lou Pinella isn’t one to sit idly by. He’s already switched the lineup around moving Marlon Byrd (vs. lefties) and Kosuke Fukudome (vs. righties) to the top of the order, and now the team is making a change in the rotation. With Ted Lilly set to return from his minor league rehab assignment this weekend, and with that a starter will need to be moved to the bullpen. Speculation was rampant on Twitter today about who it might be, and ultimately the man chosen to move might have been the one least likely to have taken on a bullpen role – and that is Carlos Zambrano. Big Z hasn’t made a bullpen appearance since 2002. Zambrano certainly has the stuff to dominate in shorts stints, but there are two big concerns. First, he often has no idea where the strike zone is, and you don’t want a late game arm coming in walking guys. Second, Zambrano is the hot head of hot heads. How anyone thinks that matches a role where, even at best, you often end up blowing things for your team, is beyond me. Be very afraid Cubs fans, but if you can, hold on to him in fantasy leagues cause this simply cannot last (sooner or later Carlos Silva will implode).

Mark Ellis missed seven games with a hamstring injury before playing last night. Well, he suffered a setback and today the A’s placed him on the DL. So, he’ll now have to miss 15 more games. Would the team have been better off just placing him on the DL when the injury initially occurred, thereby saving them a week of time? Probably. Too bad the Red Sox did the same thing with their handling of the rib injury to Jacoby Ellsbury (they left him on the bench, but not on the DL, for a week and a half before deciding to DL him).

Prince Fielder isn’t hitting his weight, which is something when you way like a quarter of a ton (he is hitting .224). Beyond the concern with the batting average there is the fact that he hasn’t gone deep in 49 at-bats. Well, I guess we know why – he has a sore hand. I have a sore wrist, but it hasn’t precluded me from continuing to type out really good articles the past week (I must be tougher than Prince).

Zack Greinke allowed two runs over seven innings against the Blue Jays only to see his bullpen cough up the lead and the game. He’s now 0-2 through four starts despite a 3.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

Speaking of the Royals, Jose Guillen continues to mash as if he was the reincarnated Josh Gibson. Guillen is hitting .377 with six homers and 13 RBI through 15 games. How is that for a forgotten man in the fantasy game?

Oh, and one last thing. Mr. Lyle Overbay, my starting first basemen in JEDWARS, an AL-only league, please remember how to hit. How he is batting .119 through 59 at-bats, considering that he owns a .277 career average, is simply astounding. It also goes to show you that things always even out. What do I mean? I have Guillen going absolutely nuts on that same squad, though his production has pretty much been negated by the failures of Overbay.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April12, 2010

What is the deal with the massive amount of injuries to all-star caliber players in the opening month of the season? Here is a list of the players I’ll touch on today.

C: Miguel Montero

1B: Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee

2B: Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones

SS: Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Gonzalez

SP: Cliff Lee, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young

RP: Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge

Also —

(1) Jack Cust accepts minor league deal. Does he have any value?

(2) Nelson Cruz bashing. Already has five homers leading to 38 HR, 85 RBI and 20 SB in his last 134 games.

(3) And Prince Fielder who wants at least $180 million, maybe more than $200, to sign long-term.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Uncertainty

Today I’m going to explain why it makes sense to trust yourself, and why your first “call” is likely the one that you should almost always go with. I’ll also touch on the plight of the injured Athletics, and a couple of NFL quick hitters that I just had to voice my thoughts on.

The Athletics can’t hit (they are last in the AL with a .233 batting average and just 75 runs scored), and they are also dealing with injuries all over the infield to the likes of Nomar Garciaparra and Mark Ellis (both have calf concerns) and the never ending health concerns of Eric Chavez. All of this likely means that Bobby Crosby could return to the lineup on a daily basis, especially if both Garciaparra and Ellis end up with long stays on the sidelines (they will at least be DL’d for 15-days). Crosby isn’t hitting his weight this season (.179 in 28 ABs), this after hitting .226 in 2207 and .237 in 2008. The A’s are in bad shape if they have to given Crosby 400+ ABs this season. Heck, if they give the at-bats to Jack Hannahan are they any better off since he owns a career line of .229/.317/.360 in 595 ABs?

Don’t you hate it when you don’t trust yourself? This weekend in the $100,000 NFBC tournament, I had a decision to make on who to add to my pitching staff when the A’s finally announced that Joey Devine was done for the year with elbow surgery. With Devine’s injury, he was the top closer I took on draft day, I’m left without a full-time closer in the 15 team league (30 players per squad). Ryan Franklin has been a great find, he was taken in the 25th round, but it’s tough to call him a full-time closer with the way Tony La Russa manages the Cardinals.

Anyway, I had to make a decision on who to add to my squad, knowing that I badly needed saves. I had three main choices I was considering: J.P. Howell, Santiago Casilla and Ryan Madson. Clearly Howell isn’t in line for saves in Tampa, but it was still hard to ignore his performance since the start of last season that includes some great work that I detailed in my Chopping Block article, including the best ERA in baseball since the start of the 2008 season amongst hurlers who have thrown at least 95-innings. Madson, he has been a lock the past two years producing an identical ERA of 3.05, and WHIP marks of 1.27 and 1.23. Solid skills, and a stable role, but no saves with Brad Lidge around. That left me with Casilla as my top choice since I have little faith at all that Brad Ziegler will be able to hold down the closers role all year. Casilla is off to a solid start with a 1.59 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in his 11.1 innings, and he has allowed only three hits. If he can avoid his late season failures that have become too common place, and Ziegler is slowly figured out by batters as I assume he will be, then Casilla becomes a very sneaky and cheap pickup with saves potential (I only spent $12 out of a $1,000 FAAB budget to grab him). Now comes word that Lidge is dealing with a knee injury that shouldn’t, but could, end up with him spending some time on the DL. In fact, according to our injury expert Rick Wilton, this type of injury not only often leads to a stint on the DL, it even ends up leading to surgery in a minority of cases (you can read more about his injury analysis in The Baseball Injury Report.

All of this just goes to show you that trusting your gut is always the right move. In this case, that would have been to take Madson or Howell who are likely to me much more stable options than Casilla. If Lidge ends up needing time on the DL, care to guess how much Madson will go for in FAAB this week? I’m betting the bidding would hit at least hits triple digits. Oh, and yeah, that was a report you read this morning on Casilla injuring his calf on Tuesday night right? He will likely be shut down for a couple of days as a result. What is it I always preach– take skill over role? I should have taken my own advice.

I love how the Raiders do their own thing without a care in the world about what others think. Too bad they are never right.

Some team is going to give Michael Vick a shot once his prison sentence and NFL suspension are completed. Not only do I hope that team receives coal in their stocking come the holiday season, I hope the organization goes into a tailspin and doesn’t make the playoffs for a decade. The man is a deplorable human being, and for once I would like the owners in the NFL to stand up for what is right versus what could make them money. I can tell you this – there will be a whole lot of P.E.T.A (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) rallies everywhere Vick goes, and there rightly should be. Sometimes P.E.T.A is way too rabid for my tastes, but in this case, I stand with them.