HOF: Tim Raines

Hall of Fame talk is starting to heat up with the announcement of the 2010 inductees mere days away (January 6th). Some players eligible for the first time include Barry Larkin, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Roberto Alomar (you can read my thoughts on Alomar in Who Am I?). Other players who return hoping to pick up the required 75 percent vote this season include a host of some of the who’s who in the game the past 30 years: Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire and Tim Raines. The last name on this list is who I’m going to focus on in this piece.

Long considered the best leadoff man in the National League during his career, Tim Raines had the misfortune of being the second best leadoff hitter in the game when he played. Mind you, there is no reason to hang ones head when you are #2 behind the man widely considered to be the best ever to fill the roll in Rickey Henderson, but clearly Raines falls behind Henderson in almost every way you can possible think of. Here are each man’s career bests in the 5×5 categories.

Raines: .334-18-68-133-90
Henderson:.325-28-74-146-130

Mind you the numbers are pretty close, but when we move to the realm of their career totals, the gap does widen.

Raines: .294-170-980-1,571-808
Henderson: .279-297-1,115-2,295-1,406

By the way, Henderson scored more runs and stole more bases than any man who ever lived.

Still, like I said at the start, the decision to vote for Raines shouldn’t be about Raines vs. Henderson, it should be about how Raines staked up against the competition. In this respect, he did very well.

Raines was named to 7-straight All-Star teams (1981-87).

Raines finished in the top-10 in AVG four times (led league at .334 in 1986).

Raines was top-10 in runs scored eight times (led league twice – 1983, 1987).

Raines led the NL in steals 4-straight years (1981-84). He also finished in the top-10 seven other times.

Raines finished in the top-10 in hits six times.

Raines finished in the top-10 in triples nine times.

Raines finished in the top-10 in OBP seven times (led league in 1986 at .413).

Raines finished in the top-10 in OPS four times.

Obviously Raines was one of the most effective players in the game for the majority of a decade as he enjoyed some tremendous success with the Expos. All told, that success led to some marks that clearly place him amongst the all-time greats that the game has ever seen.

Raines scored 1,571 runs, the 50th best total ever.
Raines produced 2,605 hits, the 73rd best total ever.
Raines stole 808 bases, the 5th best total ever.
Raines produced 1,636 Runs Created, the 53rd best mark ever.
Raines produced a 280.9 Power-Speed Number, the 28th best mark ever.

Yes, Mr. Raines was one hell of a player.

So why has he failed to break even 25 percent in the HOF vote in his first two go round in the voting process? My guess is that Raines fails in the most basic of comparisons – he simply wasn’t the best at what he did during his career failing to live up to the impossibly high standards of Henderson. Is that fair? Certainly not. There are a plethora of players enshrined in the Hall who may not have been “the best” when they were playing, just think of the comparison of Yankee teammates Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. Should Gehrig have been denied admittance to the Hall since he wasn’t even the best player on his team? Of course not.

In the end I have no idea why Raines has gotten such little respect for what he accomplished as he was clearly the best leadoff man in the National League in the 1980′s. It might take a while for Raines to get his due but I certainly hold out hope that one of these years he will be recognized for what he was, and that was one of the best players every to hit atop of a major league lineup.

DEROSA TO GIANTS?

By Ray Flowers

The Hidden Truth

While doing my daily run around the world of sports last week, I came across a very interesting article written by Jeff Passan that you can find at Stimulants Gain Attention. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what the piece was about.

Normally, I avoid all the talk of steroids and performance enhancing drugs (PED). Sure, I sometimes delve into the topic, I can’t avoid it entirely in my line of work, but honestly most of the time I try to pay attention to what is happening on the field and let the legal wrangling and the blowhards deal with PED’s. However, Mr. Passan’s column was so illuminating I thought I simply had to break it down. Here are some of the highlights of the piece.

1- 108 players in 2009 were awarded a free pass for drug use. What do I mean? 108 major league players were granted a TUE or Therapeutic Use Exemption to take drugs on the banned list. These 108 baseball player all were being treated for ADHD or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder. That’s nearly nine percent of all players, more than double the population at large. “It looks fishy,” said Dr. Ari Tuckman, the VP of the Attention Deficit Disorder Association. “It doesn’t mean it is, but it looks that way.”

2- In 2006 there were 28 players granted a TUE.

3- In 2007 MLB started testing for stimulants.

4- In 2007 the number of TUE’s quadrupled to 103.

You do the math.

5- Though baseball says they have tightened the rules for TUE, in 2008 the number of players on the list increased from 103 to 106. “A healthy percentage of applications for new TUE’s was rejected,” MLB Players Association director Michael Weiner said

6- ADHD drugs are not steroids. However, they do bring a heightened sense of alertness, and an inner calmness, two traits that clearly might have just a wee bit of an effect on a hitter. “In the most general sense, almost everybody does better on a stimulant,” Dr. Tuckman said, “which is something Starbucks and Coca-Cola figured out long ago.”

So what do we have here? Well, approximately 15 percent of all major league players are using prescription medication that could be said, in the least, to give the user a more heightened ability to focus. Given the requirements of the game, a game that goes on day after day for six months, you often hear that players are more mentally tired than physically worn down. Do you think a little pick me up in the form of a TUE leading to medication might help? I’m not saying that there aren’t some players who legitimately might have a medically condition, but double the rate of the general population? To say that seems unlikely would be kind.

In the end, this problem will never go away. Those that want to cheat will likely always be one step ahead of those that are trying to catch them. Those that can skirt by legally will likely do everything they can to gain that little extra edge. And to be truthful, is there really any difference between having a TUE or stealing signs on the field? You might even be able to make a cogent argument that stealing signs is actually worse because it informs you how the play will develop (if you take a drug, you still have to read, react and perform). I don’t know if there is any way to put all of this “drug” stuff behind us, but if there is I’d be 100 percent behind it because for far too long the story hasn’t been about what happens on the field, it’s been about what has happened in the doctor’s office.

By Ray Flowers

The More Things Change

I’ve been writing it for about four months now, over and over again. Alas, no one in Philly was listening, and now they have paid the ultimate price. Here is a direct quote from World Series Preview. “Manager Charlie Manuel has a World Series Championship under his belt from last season, but the guy just scares the hell out of me with the use of his pitching staff.” Brad Lidge potentially blew the Phillies season in Game 4 allowing the big hit to Alex Rodriguez to blow the contest as the Phillies fell behind in the Series three games to one. No team since 1985 has come back from a 3-1 deficit (go Kansas City). At least that combo of Lidge-Manuel made me look good, and that’s all I really care about because I’m so vain.

Stephen Strasburg had a spotty outing the second time he took the hill in the Arizona Fall League as he was hammered, torched really, for eight runs (seven earned) over just 2.2 innings. However he improved to 3-1 with a victory on Monday and is now sporting a 5.28 ERA with 17 Ks in just 15.1 innings. Strasburg reportedly hit 100 mph on the radar gun with four of his first six pitches on Monday. The kid can flat out bring it like few who have ever played the game. I can’t wait to see him pitch in games that count come 2010.

The Giants fired hitting coach Carney Lansford after the team had the fewest walks in the majors (392) and the second fewest home runs (112). I find it hard to believe that it was Lansford’s fault. After all, the front office game him about five major league caliber bats to work with. To replace Lansford the team hired former Triple-A hitting coach Hensley Meulens. I doubt Hensley will be able to teach Pablo Sandoval to stop swinging at balls that nearly bounce. Still, I’m always surprised when the hitting coaches end up being guys who couldn’t hit when they played (kind of like how your high school gym teacher was always about 45 lbs overweight). In a career that spanned 496 ABs, Hensley hit .220-15-53 with a .641 OPS. The man he is replacing, Lansford, won a batting title in 1981 (.336), finished second in 1989 (.336) hit over .300 five times, and batted .290 with a .753 OPS while racking up 2,074 hits in his career. Doesn’t make much sense how some of the better hitting coaches just didn’t have successful careers.

And speaking of hitting coaches, why is everyone freaking out about the Cardinals signing of Mark McGwire to man the position? Certainly there is plenty of ammunition for those who want to attack McG for the Andro and performance enhancing drug issue, but that matters little today. There is also a group of people who say ‘McGwire hit .263 in his career, so what can he teach these guys?’ However, as I have just pointed out, compared to Meulens, McGwire was Picasso with the bat in his hands. The bottom line is that McGwire knows how to hit, and being able to teach the mental aspect is often the most important part of hitting. Regardless, did you ever hear anyone say that Mark didn’t have a beautiful swing? Controlled yet extremely violent at the same time, McGwire worked with the gifts that he had at his disposal, and in the end he retired with a .394 OBP and a .982 OPS. All told, McGwire is one of only two men who accrued at least 3,000 plate appearances in his career, hit below .265, and still managed a .390 or better OBP. I have no doubt he can help improve Cardinals batters by helping them to work with the gifts they have at their disposal, not to mention imparting the way to think as I mentioned.

By Ray Flowers

It’s Surreal

Normally I pull on my glasses, open up the spreadsheets, and go to town. If you’ve ready any of my work you know that I love numbers, the universal language as they call it, and I sprinkle them liberally through most of my work. Sometimes I also toss in a pulp culture reference or two, I’m always fond of dropping a Jessica Alba or Britney Spears reference, and sometimes I even attempt to draw out a laugh or two with my quirky sense of humor (you can hear more of that each day, Monday through Friday, on the Fanball.com podcast that I co-host with Kyle Elfrink at 8-9 AM, PST). As a result of all of that, I usually avoid outright opinion pieces, but with some of the goings on in the NFL of late I felt it would be worth my time to address some things.

With everyone in the world freaking out about performance enhancing drugs and how their presence has tainted basically a decade worth of accomplishments in major league baseball, it seems to me that football has largely been getting a free pass by fans and the media, and I’m not quite sure why that is. Not to dwell on the negative, but here are a few NFL stories that have made the rounds of late.

The Tragic Death of Steve McNair: It appears that McNair, married with four kids, was having an affair with a 20 year old woman who, it appears, shot him while he slept four times before turning the gun on herself. It does little good to harp on a man who has lost his life, but what he heck was a married man doing running around with a gal who could have almost been his daughter (McNair was 36 years old)?

The DUI/Manslaughter Case of Donte Stallworth: Donte Stallworth was drunk with a blood alcohol level of .126, well above the legal limit in Florida of 0.08, when he struck and killed a pedestrian (there are also unconfirmed reports that he may also tested positive for marijuana). He was forthcoming with the police from the start, a fact that played into the court sentencing him to just 30 days in jail for his crime (he was released six days early for good behavior). I have no idea what kind of penal system we have in the United States these days when you can be drunk and kill someone in your car yet get less time in jail then some months have days, but at least the NFL got it right when commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Stallworth indefinitely, especially since this is not his first run in with the league and its substance abuse policy.

The Buffon – aka Travis Henry: Former star running back Travis Henry is currently awaiting sentencing for his involvement in a cocaine trafficking venture he was busted for being a part of. He likely faces years in jail, potentially up to 10, for his crimes. His lawyer is claiming his client was “duped” into joining the drug ring and therefore should be given a light sentence. Maybe he was also “duped” into having nine children with nine different women as well? Henry is a disgrace to humanity.

The Suspension of Calvin Pace: The Jet’s linebacker tested positive for violating the league’s performance enhancing substance clause – i.e. he got popped for steroids. As a result he was suspended for four games. Of course his defense was the usual – it wasn’t steroids but a tainted over the counter supplement that got him in trouble. Will anyone ever step up to the plate and just admit the truth? You think this excuse would work in baseball?

And that’s kinda the whole point of this rant today. In baseball a player suspected of once upon a time taking steroids is thrown to the wolves. Guys like Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa have all likely had their legacies tarnished to the point that they will never recover, regardless of the fact that none of them ever tested positive for steroids. Yet in the NFL we have a guy suspended for steroids and he’ll be back and playing soon enough with no one giving a rat’s ass as long as he makes plays on Sunday’s. Even worse, the NFL has become a stomping ground not just for cheaters but drug addicts, spousal abusers, womanizers and worse – a place where the on the field violence has seeped into to pretty much every aspect of these players lives to the point where many of them no longer seem capable of making rational, adult decisions. Maybe all you football lovers out there should think of that the next time you down a baseball player for possibly ingesting a PED, because in comparison to what is common place in the NFL anymore, my get-up-out-of-my-seat-outrage at baseball players just doesn’t exist.

By Ray Flowers

Death of the Hero?

Have all the heroes disappeared in the world of baseball? In case you missed it, and how could you, the New York Times has reported that Sammy Sosa tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003 as one of the 104 major leaguers who failed the “confidential” drug testing that led to Major League Baseball instituting a sport wide steroid testing policy that they continue to follow until this day. Do we have proof that this accusation is true? Of course we don’t since the records that are being reported on are secret and that the “source” for the story is anonymous fearing a potentially stiff legal penalty for divulging privileged information. Much like Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, Sosa never officially failed a major league drug test (the 2003 tests weren’t “official,” that didn’t happen until the following year of 2004 after a high enough percentage of players failed the first test in 2003 to kick in official sanctions), but that certainly won’t help to remove the tarnish that has set in with regards to their legacy.

This whole performance enhancing mess has been discussed ad nauseam, and I have no intention of repeating what has been said in so many corners. I would however like to pose the following question:

Who is the greatest home run hitter in baseball the past 25 years?

Barry Bonds is widely regarded to have cheated during the second half of his career, so he is out.

Sammy Sosa? From a 175 lbs rookie to the cover of Muscle and Fitness magazine with biceps bigger than my thighs. Shocking that he likely cheated.

Mark McGwire? Next.

Rafael Palmeiro? The biggest hypocrite on Earth? I never liked that guy anyway, especially after he did those Viagra commercials and then claimed he didn’t take the product. Yeah, right.

A-Rod? Please. That guy is so phony that he would stand out in a room of fake money in a Secret Service vault (for those of you that don’t know the Secret Service, those folks that run along next to the presidential motorcade with dark glasses an ear microphones, are the branch of government that investigates phony money).

Manny Ramirez? Thought he apparently made it out of the initial barrage clean, his recent test failure certainly casts a huge pale of suspicion over everything he did previously.

So amongst guys who have played the bulk of their careers since 1980, we are left with two names – Jim Thome and Ken Griffey Jr.

As of this writing Thome has 553 home runs, the 13th best mark in baseball history. As for Griffey, his number is 617, so he becomes the king of the modern day home run hitters. In fact, If not for a series of injury filled campaigns from 2001-04, Griffey likely would be closing in on 700-home runs instead of 620. Think I’m full of it?

Consider that Griffey had hit at least 40-home runs each year from 1996-2000. Even if we posit that he would slow a bit with age, let’s cut that number all the way down to a very conservative 30 a season (after all he hit 35 in 2005 when he returned to health), how many extra home runs would he have hit during his four injury filled seasons? In those four seasons Griffey had 1,027 ABs, an average of 257 a year. Given that he averaged 582 the previous five seasons when he was blasting 40 homer a year, let’s again play it conservative and give him 550 at-bats a season at the rate of 30 homers a year. That equates to one home run per 18.33 ABs. If we add an extra 300 at-bats a season, remember he averaged 257 in that time and we are positing 550 a year, that would given him an extra 16.4 home runs a season. 16.4 times four years equals an additional 66 home runs, which when added to his total of 617 brings The Kid up to 683 in his career. Like I said, within shouting distance of becoming just the fourth man in history to record 700 big flies without the aide of artificial stimulants in his career.

We’ll likely never know the truth of who did what, when, but for my money, and face my opinion is the one that counts given that I’m the one penning this article, here is my top-10 list of home run hitters who have ever played the game.

755 – Hank Aaron
714 – Babe Ruth
660 – Willie Mays
617 – Ken Griffey Jr.
586 – Frank Robinson
573 – Harmon Killebrew
563 – Reggie Jackson
553 – Jim Thome
548 – Mike Schmidt
536 – Mickey Mantle

Long live Ken Griffey Jr., truly one of the most complete players, steroid enhanced or otherwise for that matter, who ever played the game of baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Shame on You

Are there no hero’s left? The answer to that question appears to be a resounding yes after the news broke today that Manny Ramirez was being suspended 50-games, starting immediately, for taking HCG a drug which, by most experts’ opinions is used to boost a body’s testosterone production and often one that is used to help regulate a body’s ability to produce the hormone after taking steroids. There is even a story out that stating that the reason Manny tested positive for the drug is that it may have been prescribed by a doctor to help him overcome erectile dysfunction. There are so many positions, I mean directions, that I could go with here I’m really tempted, but given the gravity of the whole matter I think I will just let that one lay where it is.

The fact of the matter is that baseball as we knew it is totally done. If there was any “star” in the game who seemed to be above the performance enhancing drugs (PED) scandals it was Manny. Why? Does the guy even know what day it is? Sometimes he acts like he is on drugs, but most would posit weed and not PED’s as the culprit thanks to his often outrages behavior. Alas, that “joke” is no longer applicable with the news we heard today.

So where does this all leave us? Can baseball respond? Take a look at the list of the greatest players of all-time, and a whole host of them are now tainted with names like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa all under the pale of the PED scandal that has rocked the game to its very foundations. We have a couple of situations at play here.

1 – We have the group of suspected PED users in Bonds, Clemens, McGwire and Sosa. Anyone with half a brain in their head must admit that it appears, with a high degree of certitude, that each of these men used illicit means to boost their performance on the field even if they have yet to make such an admission.

2- We have an admitted user in A-Rod. He has stated that his PED use was limited to 2001-03 when he was a member of the Texas Rangers, but a recent book not only disputes that “fact,” it goes far beyond it to allege that A-Rod took PEDs as far back as high school. Regardless, unlike the men listed in number one above, A-Rod has admitted to PED use.

3- We have only one man off this list, despite everything that has been discussed, written or assumed, who has actually tested positive for PEDs while a major league player, and that is Manny Ramirez.

Not only will Manny have to live with the shame that this suspension will bring, his once pristine image, only tarnished by his flighty attitude and whimsical indiscretions on the field, is now called into question from a historical perspective. Given the climate we live in today, that means that a man who is clearly one of the top-10 right-handed hitters of all-time will likely find his name alongside the likes of Bonds, Clemens and McGwire five years after he hangs up his cleats – former superstars who may forever be denied admittance into the hallowed halls of the Hall of Fame. And for that, we should all be truly ashamed.

By Ray Flowers