The Case of Tim Hudson

A competitor of the first degree, Tim Hudson has been greatly overlooked for the majority of his career. First he was somewhat hidden by the presence of Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in Oakland, and then he moved on to Atlanta where he toiled as a top shelf pitching option, though once again one who failed to generate as much attention as his production warranted. However, after a wonderful first half he was named to the 2010 NL All-Star team, a much deserved honor given his 2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8-4 record through 17 starts. In the next couple of sections I’ll relate some of the historical success of Hudson before speaking directly to what I expect from him in the second half of the regular season.

A History Lesson

As a rookie Hudson went 11-2 with a 3.23 ERA for the A’s over 21 starts. He ended up fifth in the Rookie of the Year Voting.

In year two he won 20 games for the first and only time as he went 20-6 as he finished second in the AL Cy Young race despite the fact that he posted the second worst ERA of his career at 4.14.

In year III (2001), he made a career high 35 starts as he went 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA.

You get the picture. He’s been very good for a long time. In fact, here are some historical facts about Hudson that speak to just how good he has been.

* From 1999-2008 he won at least 11 games each season. Only he and Mike Mussina did that. Moreover, in each season of his career in which he has thrown 130-innings he has won at least 11 games.

* In his career he is 156-82, good for a .655 winning percentage. As a result, he is one of just 10 pitchers in big league history with a winning percentage over .650 and at least 150 victories in a career. Think about that. Only 10 men have ever done that.

* Hudson owns a 3.43 ERA in his career despite spending six of his 12 seasons in the AL. He owns a career 1.28 ERA+ meaning his ERA has been 28 percent better than league average (park and era adjusted). To place that number in context, that 128 mark is tied for 43rd all time with guys like Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver.

Yes, that means he has been historically good.

Breaking Down 2010

Hudson deserves to be on the All-Star team this season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns. Let’s just plow through them.

1- His ERA hasn’t been below 3.00 since 2003.

2- His WHIP hasn’t been 1.15 or lower since 2003.

3- His .221 batting average against would be a career low (.250 lifetime mark).

4- Despite all the success his 4.57 K/9 mark is a batter and a half below his career rate (6.04). It would also be a career worst mark.

5- His 3.23 BB/9 is above his career rate (2.79) and would be his second worst mark since 2000.

6- His line drive rate is laughably low at 10.6 percent. His career rate is 18.0 and it has been at least 16.5 percent each of the past eight years.

7- His BABIP mark is .234 which would be a career low (.286 lifetime mark).

8- His left on base percentage is sky high at 84.0 percent. It’s 74.0 percent for his career.

9- His GB/FB ratio is 3.15, a mark that would set a new career best.

Could Hudson have a second half to match the first? Stranger things certainly have happened. At the same time there is so much out of whack here that it would be wise not to lay a big portion of your paycheck on Hudson continuing to dominate as the season wears on. He should be fine and concerns about his Tommy John surgery obviously have vanished, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be a good time to see if you can parlay his hot start into a big return on the trade market.

By Ray Flowers

Wanted – Answers

I get email questions all week. It’s a great way for me to interact with you, my faithful readers, and today I thought I would answer a couple of the questions that have come to me the past few days.

What are your thoughts on Brett Anderson the rest of the year? Is he a better pickup than someone like Chad Gaudin?
– Joe, Chrisman, IL

Kyle Elfrink and I talked about Anderson on our Fantasy Buffet podcast on Monday, a show that can be heard live every day, Monday – Friday from 8-9 AM PST. If you want to give it a listen, simply tune in to the show at the link above. I’ll restate what I basically said at the time.

Anderson was great the other day, he took a perfect game into the seventh inning, and over his last three starts he hasn’t allowed a single run while giving up only seven hits in 21 innings. That leaves him with solid AL ratios (4.25 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) though it would be nice to see a few more strikeouts (6.61 K/9 – it was over a batter per inning in his minor league career). He has done a good job throwing strikes, 2.36 BB/9, but he has needed to as he has allowed 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Still, I don’t see much that really stands out here. I’m also a bit concerned by the fact that he has permitted a line drive rate of just 15 percent yet he still has an ERA well above four, partly because of a very low left on base rate of 65.5 percent. If that line drive rate climbs toward the league average (20), his average BABIP (.297) could certainly rise, and if that occurs, without an increase in his LOB mark, well, that ERA could be closer to five than four by the end of the year. He is a solid AL-only option for sure, and one with mixed league relevance, though I certainly wouldn’t think we are looking at the next Mark Mulder based solely on a great 3-game run. Still, he is probably a better bet at this point than Chad Gaudin who despite the impressive K-totals (9.58 K/9), doesn’t throw enough strikes (4.95 BB/9), or flash near the consistency one looks for (in his last nine starts he has allowed two or fewer runs five times but five or more runs three times with a six and an eight run outing mixed in).

I’m in a 10 team league with 5 x 5 scoring. We start five OF, & have to keep two OF. As of now, my keepers are Ichiro & Hawpe. I am looking to pair Hawpe with maybe Chipper for an upgrade and am looking at Justin Upton, Holliday & Markakis. Markakis & Holliday are on the same team & can likely be had easier than Upton. Who should I go after of these three?
– Jim

Keeper questions are always a bit difficult. Are there salaries involved? Is there a contract length for how long you can hold on to players? Etc. Without knowing the answer to those type of things, I’ll just answer with the belief that you can keep the guys for a couple of years, and that there is no salary concern.

(1) You have to keep Ichiro. Period. Not only does he hit .300+ every year, he does so in such a massive amount of at-bats that his production is even more valuable than you would think straight away (an extra 80 at-bats versus a “normal” everyday player with a .320 is huge to a team’s overall mark).

(2) Chipper Jones has little value in a keeper league at this point of his storied career, and he hasn’t looked anything like the hitter we have seen the past three seasons this year.

(3) Trying to parlay Chipper and Brad Hawpe for an upgrade seems like a fine idea. Remember, sell high. Hawpe is a solid 25 HR, 100 RBI guy, but his .324 batting average far exceeds his .288 career mark, and the man has no speed at all.

(4) Nick Markakis has averaged 22 homers, 100 RBI and 102 runs the past two years, and he owns a .298 career average. Unlike a lot of youngsters he also flashes solid strike zone control as evidenced by his .371 career OBP. I don’t think he should be looked at as a 20/20 guy like some hoped, or even a 15/15 guy, but at the same time I could see him hit .300-20-100-100-10 for about the next decade, and that is tremendous.

(5) Justin Upton won’t be 22 until August, and that guy has tons of talent. He is hitting nearly .300 with 13 steals, and the power should grow to the 30-HR level. I still see holes in that swing, and I worry about his brutal defense in the outfield, but he is already a great player, and one who could dominate for years.

(6) Matt Holliday has been awful for three months, and everyone has just forgotten about him. I’ve received a couple of emails the past few days asking me about his value. In fact, one of the emails said that a guy was trying really hard to get the suddenly hot Ryan Ludwick – and if he couldn’t he would try to get Holliday. What? Try to get Holliday as a fall back option? That sounds crazy. Seems to me that everyone has allowed three months of struggling to erase three years of superstar performance. I know he isn’t in Colorado anymore, but really, Ryan Ludwick? I don’t care if he ends up moving to another club or staying in Oakland. If the emails I have received recently are any indication of how Holliday is being viewed out there, I’m all over acquiring that guy at a major discount.

So what would I do? I would offer Hawpe and Chipper for Holliday and ??? – I’d ask for another part because as I stated, I bet Holliday’s current owner is so down on him that he would throw someone else in if it would mean ridding himself of the former Colorado great. If not, targeting Markakis or Upton would also make a lot of sense as they certainly possesses more fantasy upside than Hawpe ever will. Some might rank the guys Upton. Markakis, Holliday, but I have a lot of faith in Matt.

By Ray Flowers

The Day After

The day after the MLB All-Star game good thoughts permeate the atmosphere of the world of baseball. Here are some of those as well as a few other things on my ornery mind.

It’s official – Joe Mauer has the prettiest swing in the game. The balance, the fluid stroke that is exceedingly flat through the zone, and the precision of it – simply amazing. If you want your kid to learn how to hit, tape a bunch of Twins games and stick the tape in your VCR for your son to watch over and over again on Saturday morning (I may be dating myself with that reference, perhaps it would be better to TiVo a few of his games). You can sum up the greatness that is Mauer in that one at bat last night where he had an RBI double to the opposite field. He stayed back on the ball and seemed to keep the bat in the zone for an amazingly long period of time before shooting that liner to left. I touched on his statistical greatness in a piece earlier today that you can find a link to in my By The Numbers – Hitters piece.

How bad an outing was that for Tim Lincecum last night. Too bad he failed to come through under the bright lights of the nation’s eyes. Even so, he is still the single most exciting pitcher to watch in the game today. Hopefully he will be able to use this pressure packed scenario to his advantage later in the year when he will need to keep his composure to help lead the Giants to the playoffs. Yeah I said Giants and playoffs in the same sentence.

Speaking of the game, how great was it to see Carl Crawford get the MVP award for his defensive contributions? In today’s day and age of statistics and fantasy baseball that almost exclusively focus on a player’s ability to hit, it was nice to see that some deference is still being given to those men who flash the leather on defense. Speaking of the focus on defense, did any of you catch one of the latest pieces written by Alan Schwartz detailing a new computer invention that will help to give us a better understand of how to analyze defensive prowess? If you missed it, make sure to give Digital Eyes Will Chart Baseball’s Unseen Skills a read.

Speaking of Crawford, did you see that interview he had right after being presented the MVP Trophy by Bud Selig? Talk show host Chris Rose broke the cardinal rule of interviewers – he didn’t ask a question. Guys, when you are interviewing someone ASK THEM A QUESTION. Statements of fact like “that was a good game tonight” or “you really looked locked in while making that play” – those are not questions. Just makes me wonder how those guys got to where they are. We “fantasy guys” are often snickered at and looked down upon as not being real journalists, but I can tell you this – on my podcast show ever morning at 8-9 AM PST with Kyle Elfrink, you will never, and I mean never, catch me asking a guest a non-question during an interview. I just don’t get that (you can access the show each morning on the Fanball Homepage.

In other baseball news — first overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg hasn’t signed with the Nationals yet, hardly a surprise given the massive dollar figures that he is said to be seeking (a minimum of at least $15 million even though the record for guaranteed money given to a starting pitcher is, I believe, the $10.5 million given to Mark Prior when he came out of USC). I cannot see anyway that the Nats don’t eventually sign the phenom, but at the same time don’t expect it to happen until possibly the last day which is August 17th.

While the signing of Pedro Martinez is getting all the publicity, it appears another former All-Star is closing in on a return to the bigs, and that man is lefty Mark Mulder. According to a recent report by Jon Heyman of SI, Mulder is reportedly back to 95 percent with his injured shoulder. Don’t know if I buy that at all, and even if I do I’m certainly not at all excited given that he has tossed just 12.2 innings since the start of 2007. Still, I do hope that Mulder can make it back to the field, he is just 31 years old, and from 2001-05 he averaged 17.6 victories a season. If he is at 95 percent, does that mean does that mean he can post 16.7 victories a year at this stage of his career? Honestly, I might settle for 16.7 innings in the bigs the rest of 2009.

* Photo courtesy of Ryan Houston

By Ray Flowers