Draft Day Challenge, April 23

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter: @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Salvador Perez
2. Russell Martin

Perez is hitting a poor .188 the past three weeks to drop his season long mark down to .258. He faces Max Scherzer, a tough matchup, though one that he has had ample success with as he’s gone deep twice and has five hits in seven at-bats.

Martin was awful at the start of the season and people were freaking out. He’s turned that all around of late. Martin is hitting .526 the past week with a couple of homers. Things tend to even out eventually.

FIRST BASE
1. Mark Trumbo
2. Adam LaRoche

Trumbo is hitting .350 with a homer the last week, and he’s been solid all year long with a .311 average. He’s also gone 4-for-10 against Alexi Ogando whom he faces on this day.

LaRoche is a slow starter, so maybe it’s tough to trust him, but he has had some success versus Adam Wainwright in his career (.280-1-9 in 25 at-bats).

SECOND BASE
1. Ian Kinsler
2. Jose Altuve

Kinsler is expensive, but he’s worth it given the success he has had against Jason Vargas (.343-1-3 with two steals over 35 at-bats).

Altuve is white hot right now with a .455 batting average over the past two weeks. Will he be able to keep that going against Hisashi Iwakuma who has a 1.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over four starts?

THIRD BASE
1. Mark Reynolds
2. Kyle Seager

Reynolds leads baseball with 10 RBIs against left-handed pitching and he faces Jose Quintana, a lefty, from the White Sox. Reynolds has gone deep three times against lefties though he has hit, a Reynolds-like, .231.

Seager is hitting .276 thanks to hits in 11-straight games. He’s also rapped out seven hits the past three games and has two homers and four RBIs in his past two contests.

SHORTSTOP
1.Yunel Escobar
2. Jean Segura

Escobar has seven hits in 16 at-bats (.438) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Escobar also hit his second homer of the year and had two RBIs Monday night.

Segura is 0-for-3 against Clayton Richard in his career but he also leads baseball on this young season with a .563 batting average in 16 at-bats against left-handed pitching.

OUTFIELD
1. Alex Gordon
2. Matt Joyce

The matchup for Gordon looks sloppy on paper as he faces Max Scherzer. Results though say that Gordon should have a lot of success as he’s hit .389 with a homer in 18 at-bats against the righty. Gordon also enters the game hitting. .342 in April.

Joyce has gone deep twice with five hits in 11 at-bats (.455) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Wait, have I already written that?

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Wade Davis
3. Patrick Corbin
4. Carlos Villanueva

Quintana has 14 strikeouts over 13.2 shutout innings in his last two starts. He’s facing an Indians club that has hit .094 with a .172 SLG against him over 64 at-bats. Ownage perhaps?

Davis hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last two starts and he has struck out 13 batters over those 23 innings. He faces a tough Tigers lineup but he’s rolling so far in the young season and he does have a 3.42 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven career outings against the Tigers.

Corbin has allowed a total of three runs in two outings on the road this season. He faces off against the Giants in San Francisco. In three starts this season the young lefty has allowed a total of three earned runs though his 1.86 K/BB ratio isn’t exactly fantastic though in 23 innings against the Giants that number is a remarkable 15.00 (15 Ks, 1 BB).

Villanueva has allowed three runs in three starts this season leading to a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP for the Cubs. He faces the Reds in Cincinnati, a club that he has performed passably against in his career (3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 40 Ks in 49.2 IP).

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part II, Rounds 15-28

The peeps over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (to see how others in the league constructed their clubs, click on the link above). In Part II of this three part series I will review selections made in rounds 15-28.

For a review of selections in rounds 1-14.

Round 15: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Players: Dan Haren, SP
I believe Haren will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

Round 16: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Steve Cishek, RP
Wanted Corey Hart who was taken a pick ahead. Therefore decided to make the plunge with my first closer. Stronger skills than Jim Johnson who had 51 saves last year.

Round 17: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kenley Jansen
It looks like Brandon League will be the closer to start the year, but I expect Jansen to lead the Dodgers in saves just like he did last season after starting out as a setup man. Just a massive arm.

Round 18: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B
He qualifies at both corner infield spots, will get to hit in a solid batters yard in New York, is motivated, and has reworked his swing a bit. All of those things are pluses.

Round 19: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dustin Ackley, 2B
I don’t know how he scored more than 80 runs with an OBP under .300 last year. Some slight improvement across the board could lead to 10th round production.

Round 20: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Bobby Parnell
There’s no doubting Frank Francisco has a huge arm, but elbow woes could lead to the fire balling/ground ball inducing Parnell becoming the Mets’ closer.

Round 21: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The guy I wanted (Russell Martin) was taken one pick before me (what a shock). Salty could go for 25 HRs, so he’s not an awful consolation prize.

Round 22: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shaun Marcum, SP
Injuries have sapped his value in some folks eyes, but since 2008 an average Marcum season: 11-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.91 K/BB in 168 innings.

Round 23: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Reynolds, 1B
Few seem to remember, but from 2008 an average Reynolds effort has led to 33 homers, 88 RBIs, 83 runs, 10 steals. So what if he’s hit .229 in that time? I can handle the average with my roster.

Round 24: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James McDonald, SP
A tale of two halves. In the first he was impressive (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP ). In the second he sucked eggs (3-5, 7.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP). Still has that power arm. See his Player Profile.

Round 25: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Michael Brantley, OF
Not that far away from being someone of note. He was one of nine outfielders to go .288-6-60-63-12 last season. See his Player Profile.

Round 26: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Domonic Brown, OF
I really didn’t need another outfielder after taking Brantle, but with Delmon Young nursing an ankle injury maybe, just maybe, Brown will finally flash that 20/20 talent. We can trade in this league too, and Mr. Minnix has already expressed an interest in Mr. Brown.

Round 27: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: David Robertson
Had a great season last year and people forget if he hadn’t gotten hurt it likely would have been him, and not Rafael Soriano, who led the Yankees in saves.

Round 28: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Francisco Liriano, SP
Why make the injured lefty my last selection? We’ve got two DL spots in this league. I’ll put Liriano on the DL and then grab another SP as soon as I can. See his Player Profile.

And with that all there is to do is to review the final squad which is what I will do in Part III of the series.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Contracts & Free Agents

Breaking up the monotony of my daily fantasy baseball Player Profiles, I thought it would be a good thing to take a look around the league at some of the players who have signed deals or who are looking for a new home for the 2013 baseball season.

Jonathan Broxton received a 3-year deal, with a club option ($9 million), for $21 million to stay with the Reds. This means two things. Aroldis Chapman is headed to the starting rotation. It’s a risk after his magnificent season – 38 saves, 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 15.32 K/9 – but I think it’s a risk worth taking. In my opinion, and we see this every year, you don’t have to be an elite talent to have success in the 9th inning. Plus, Aroldis has to be more valuable pitching seven innings 30 times than just 71.2 innings out of the bullpen like he did last year, right (note: Reds’ pitching coach Bryan Price said Chapman will be on an IP count in ’13 but would not mention what the number is)? That is if the team has a viable 9th inning option to turn to. Broxton may not be that guy. I’m a big fan of the 2.22 GB/FB ratio he posted last season, and that 2.48 ERA is also a solid mark, but I’m still greatly concerned. Broxton’s heater is down three mph from his heyday, and his K/9 mark of 6.98 last season was four full batters below his career average. Four. He also walked fewer batters than even before (his BB/9 was down a full batter), and there is little reason to think he will be able to keep the number that low again. I see trouble ahead with Broxton working the 9th.

Zack Greinke is gonna get paid. Oh is he. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests that a source told him there might even be chance that Greinke will be able to better the record $161 million deal given to CC Sabathia. Even if he doesn’t get there, a deal of six years and $150 million seems immanently possible.

Jair Jurrjens is not likely to be back with the Braves. Who can blame them. He posted a 6.89 ERA and 1.86 WHIP last season in 11 outings while spending a large portion of the year in Triple-A where he didn’t exactly stand out (4-6, 4.98 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.85 K/9). He’s nothing more than a 5th starter in the big leagues despite the success that he has found in the past.

Francisco Liriano is now talking with the Twins who literally have one pitcher in their starting rotation – Scott Diamond. Apparently they haven’t gotten enough of a guy who has gone 15-22 with an ERA over 5.00 the past two years.

Wilton Lopez has been dealt to the Phillies (the deal isn’t official yet). Jonathan Papelbon is obviously locked into the 9th inning for the Phils, but Lopez will be an able bodied setup man. Coming off his best season (career bests in ERA 2.17, K/9 7.33 and GB/FB 2.60), Lopez should be an excellent setup man as well as a positive own in NL-only leagues.

Russell Martin is looking for a 4-year deal for $36-40 million. I think he’s been huffing paint. Still, it seems like he’ll get at least three years and $25 million from someone (John Heyman reports that the Pirates are likely to go that high). Martin last hit .250 in 2009, hasn’t stolen double-digit bags since 2009 and has watched his OBP go down 4-straight years to last seasons career worst .311. That’s a lot of junk to pay $8 mil a year for just to get 20 homers (13 of his 21 homers were at home last year where the ball flies out of the yard with frequency).

Andy Pettitte will pitch for the Yankees in 2013 after agreeing to a one year, $12 million deal. Pettitte is coming off a fantastic 12 start season that saw him post the second best ERA (2.87) and WHIP (1.14) of his career. Given that his career marks are 3.86 and 1.35, and that he is 40 years old, you’d be foolish to expect him to be as effective next season as he was last season.

Mark Reynolds seems unlikely to remain in Baltimore. Someone will pay the slugger even though he’s coming off a down season of .221 with 23 homers and 69 RBIs. Don’t forget that the previous three seasons (2009-11) that this guy averaged 38 homers, 91 RBIs and 87 runs scored a season.

Finally… Carlos Ruiz is a moron. Ruiz was suspended for 25 games for using Adderall (a medication for ADHD that is often used illegally by players to help sharpen their focus). Ruiz is an idiot for cheating, but there is also another layer of idiocy here. The first positive test for amphetamines results in further testing but NO suspension. That means that Ruiz failed the test – twice. I’m just gonna say it flat out – there is no doubt that Ruiz is a cheater.

By Ray Flowers

Review: Fanball & Sirius Show League

Two more leagues to review. And yes, the results of these final two leagues was much better than the majority of my efforts that I’ve been detailing over the past week.

FANBALL LEAGUE

For those of you who haven’t been following my work for years, and shame on you if you haven’t, I used to work at Fanball. When the company was closed I took up my mantle as a Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio employee, something that I will discuss further when we get to the next section. For now, all you need to know is that I was in a league with 11 other fellow Fanball employees in a 12 team mixed league.

Matt Wieters and Kurt Suzuki, the same tale as every league. One strong catcher and one Kurt Suzuki. On Kurt, my pathetic muse…

Mark Reynolds – sensing a theme here? Yes, I had Reynolds on all my clubs, and yes, he underperformed.

Robinson Cano was nails this year, an MVP candidate thanks to his extraordinary efforts that included a .313 average, a career best 33 homers, 94 RBIs and a career best 105 runs, a 4th straight effort of triple digits.

David Wright wasn’t at his best, but he was very, very good (.306-21-93-91-15). So much for his bat being washed up.

Ian Desmond come on down. What an excellent season (.292-25-73-72-21) for a cheap draft day add (18th round). Amazing.

Ben Zobrist did it all – yet again (.270-20-74-88-14), and he now qualifies at shortstop too. Martin Prado (.301-10-70-81-17) was a wonderful corner infield option who played all over the field like Zobrist. A great MI/CI duo. Oh, and I had Daniel Murphy (.291-6-65-62-10) in reserve at both spots.

A solid outfield, but not extremely deep. Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Adam Jones and Dexter Fowler did it all (as did Zobrist). Vernon Wells – yet another disappointing season. I should have known better.

Chris Davis went deep 33 times with 85 RBIs. It happened.

James Shields, Jered Weaver and Max Scherzer anchored this impressive staff. Brandon Morrow would have given me a dynamic foursome if he hadn’t missed two months with injury. Beyond those four, a cast of my “normal” characters – Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano. None of them panned out.

My bullpen, as in so many leagues this year, was nails thanks to Kenley Jansen, Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo for that.

CONGRATS: David Honecker.

FINAL RESULT: 2/12. So close.

THE DRIVE SHOW LEAGUE

Each year on The Drive, my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Show (Sirius 210, XM 87, M-Th 7 PM EDT, Friday 9 PM EDT), we do a league with the listeners and producers of our show. Here is how the season went.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia and his 25 homers were nice, but Kurt Suzuki and his six weren’t. Boy did I miss on Suzuki.

Adam Dunn blasted tons of homers (41) and produced runs (96 RBIs, 87 runs scored). Too bad he hit .204.

Ian Kinsler was a steal from 20/20.

Derek Jeter… like on every other team I had, was great.

Mike Aviles was a solid MI/CI option (.250-13-60-57-14).

My boy Chase Headley, taken in the 20th round, was fantabulistic (.286-31-115-95-17). Given his draft day cost, he was one of the 10 best players in fantasy baseball this year.

Ryan Braun was a superstar (.319-41-112-108-30).

Matt Holliday was pretty darn good (.295-27-102-95).

Desmond Jennings had a solid season (13 HRs, 85 runs, 31 steals). I parlayed him into Andrew McCutchen early in the year. Yeah, that worked out well.

B.J. Upton was two homers from a 30/30 season.
Alex Rios was two steals from 25/25
Carl Crawford. Shame on me.

Braun-Holliday-McCutchen-Upton-Rios = the best outfield ever assembled. Ever.

Matt Cain dominated.
Matt Moore wasn’t as good, but he still had 175 Ks.
Tommy Hanson wasn’t even league average. Ditto Josh Beckett.
Ryan Dempster was solid (12 wins, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).

Tyler Clippard turned in 32 saves.
Huston Street was dynamic when on the hill (1.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 23/24 on saves).
Sergio Romo, dominating again.
Brett Myers racked up 19 saves before he was dealt to the White Sox.
Brian Wilson blew out his arm.
Scott Baker blew out his arm.

How did I save this staff? The additions of Chris Capuano (12-12, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 Ks) certainly helped. Jarrod Parker also was on the club to add depth (13-8, 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 140 Ks).

CONGRATS: To Me. Finally.

FINAL RESULT: 1/12.

By Ray Flowers

Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

The review of my season in the abyss continues as I’ll take a look today at the Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio Hosts’ League club that I put together.

Kurt Suzuki and John Buck were total failures. In the piece I just linked to above I mentioned how close I was to getting Carlos Ruiz. Oh well.

Kevin Youkilis (.235-19-60-72) had a lost season wearing White and Red Sox.

Dustin Pedroia had a solid season with 15 homers, 20 steals and 81 runs scored, but injuries limited him to his worst season of 140 games played.

Derek Jeter was on a whole lot of my teams this year. Turns out he was a hell of a lot better than anyone, well almost anyone, thought he would be (.316-15-59-99-9).

Billy Butler was a superstar posting the best numbers of his career (.313-29-107-72). I don’t think he can get much better – at least in the homer column.

My outfield was a mixed bag. CarGo (.303-22-85-89-20) was once again star. Carl Crawford was once again a massive disappointment in his worst season (31 flipping games). Shane Victorino stole a career best 39 bags, but he also hit a career worst .255, produced 55 RBIs (his lowest total in five years), and scored just 72 times, his fewest times crossing the plate since 2006. Brett Gardner was a total flop appearing in just 16 games because of about 16 setbacks with his elbow. After averaging 48 steals the past two years and getting just two this year, it’s not surprising to see my team come in with seven out of a possible 12 points in the steals category.

Mark Reynolds, a top-5 third baseman in homers, RBIs and runs from 2009-11, had his worst season ever with only a massive finishing kick giving him non-puking numbers (.221-23-69-65). I still spit up a little in my mouth.

James Shields joined Justin Verlander as the only two pitchers in baseball with at least 15 victories and 220 Ks each of the past two years.

Ricky Romero was the worst pitcher ever. Well, not quite, but you know what I mean. If you don’t, here is some context. Not only did he have a 1.67 WHIP over 181 innings, he posted the 10th worst ERA of the 21st century for a hurler who tossed 180 innings (his mark was 5.77, the worst the 6.65 mark of Jose Lima in 2000).

Brandon Morrow was the ace I predicted he would be with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Too bad he made only 21 starts because of injury.

Max Scherzer alternated brilliance and putrid outings frustrating his owners. In the end though no one was complaining about 16 victories, 231 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Chad Billingsley, Erik Bedard, Ricky Nolasco rounded out the rotation. Billingsley was having a nice bounce back season before an elbow injury shut him down at 149.2 innings after 4-straight years over 185 innings. Bedard was just awful after a solid start (7-14, 5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). Amazingly he was healthy but horrible. Nolasco teased again, and in the end the numbers were terrible (12-13, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).

Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Brett Myers, Matt Capps and Aroldis Chapman were my bullpen, and yes I led the league in saves with 142, a pretty kick ass number for a 12 team league. Don’t overlook the fact that Santos had only two saves on the year either. If he too was healthy I could have parlayed one of these arms into more help for my starting staff.

CONGRATS: Drew Dinkmyer of Fantistics.

FINAL RESULT: 8/12. Not good. However, one more run, two more wins and 14 more Ks would have landed me in a tie for 6th place. Amazing how close it always is after such a long season.

By Ray Flowers

Review: K-BAD

The folks over at KFFL.com have been gracious enough to invite me to participate in KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft (K-BAD) the last couple of years. When you see how my team performed no wonder they invited me. I’m apparently an easy mark.

Ryan Doumit was great (.275-18-75). Not so much Kurt Suzuki who burned me in pretty much every league (literally every one huh?). As they say, love hurts.

Miguel Cabrera was my rock. Triple Crown winner (.330-44-139).

Howie Kendrick didn’t match his 2011 effort but he was solid (.287-8-67-57-14).

Kevin Youkilis didn’t come close to living up to my expectations with his worst season (.235/.336/.409).

Derek Jeter was one run and one steal from a .315-15-55-100-10 season.

Mark Reynolds and Dustin Ackley didn’t exactly anchor my CI/MI spots.

Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Dexter Fowler and Shane Victorino were a strong base in the outfield, but Brennan Boesch (.240-12-54-52 in 470 at-bats) and Vernon Wells (.230-11-29-36 in 243 at-bats) were dreadful as my 5th outfield option. I should have listened to my own review of Boesch.

Daniel Murphy was solid and qualified at multiple positions. Rafael Furcal was spectacular for two months (.333 with 37 runs and eight steals in April-May) and good in the first half (.275 with 54 runs scored) before his work at the dish caved (.239 with a .600 OPS over his last 38 games). Oh, and finally my boy, Chris Davis, killed it. Davis socked 33 long balls and drive in 85 while scoring 75 times. I knew the power would eventually come out.

King Felix dominated.
Ricky Romero was atrocious.
Josh Beckett was as blah as blah gets.
Brandon Morrow was great but missed two months with injury.
Wandy Rodriguez was league average across the board.
Ricky Nolasco was worse than Wandy.
Scott Baker blew his arm out.

Sergio Santos blew his arm out.
Frank Francisco was awful (5.53 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 23 SVs).
David Robertson was the closer for about 10 days before he was injured (I spent 35% of my FAAB budget to add him for that 10 day run. What luck, right?).
Sergio Romo was nails as always (1.79 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 14 SVs).

CONGRATS:  Joe Hamrahi of Baseball Prospectus.

FINAL RESULT: 11/12. This is the most embarrassed I think I have ever been at a club. My pitching was abysmal. Because I realized with a third of the year left that I have no shot at doing anything in the saves or ratio categories I tanked the ratios and gave up on relievers in an attempt to try and rack up strikeouts and wins. Even that didn’t help. On offense, I was 13 RBIs from three more points, seven homers from two more points and two steals from another point. It’s always close as I’ve been saying.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September13, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Keeper for next season in 20th of 25 rounds, Jeff Samardzija or Brett Anderson?
– @Valen007

Very interesting question since both will represent tremendous values at that cost.

Anderson has dominated in four starts this season allowing a total of three runs (two earned) leading to a 0.69 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Please tell me every one of you reading this understands that this is just one of those short runs pitchers with strong skills run into from time to time. Anderson is not the new Roy Halladay folks. After all he did have a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 ERA last season before injuring his elbow. What he is though, without question, is a very solid major league hurler. Take a look at his career numbers.

3.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.35 K/9, 2.68 K/BB

Wait a second, those aren’t Anderson’s numbers those are the numbers of a pitcher that I think profiles very similarly to Anderson in terms of their expected fantasy output – the Brewers’ Shaun Marcum. Here are Anderson’s career numbers.

3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.91 K/9, 3.21 K/BB

Anderson should be a very solid option in 2013, but his skills, despite what he has been doing for the last month, are nowhere near elite, though I do love that 54 percent career ground ball rate which does set him up to be an arm that could have some impressive runs with his diving, darting pitches.

Samardzija was recently shut down after he threw as many innings this season as he had his previous four years at the big league level (he actually tossed five more innings this season). Samardzija finished his first full season as a starter on a high note throwing a complete game as he lowered his ERA to 3.81 and his WHIP to 1.22. Those ratios are a fair match for the career rates of Anderson, but Samardzija owns one skill that Anderson will never posses – he can strike out batters with the best of them. Over the last two seasons he’s struck out a batter per inning including 180 in 174.2 innings this season. That dominance resulted in a 9.27 K/9 mark which when coupled with a massive reduction in his walk rate allowed JS to post a 3.21 K/BB ratio – an exact match for the career rate of Anderson. That’s the key with Jeff. Is he the guy we’ve seen for most of his career as a reliever, the one who averaged 5.20 walks per nine, or is he the arm that stamped out the free passes as a starter averaging 2.89 per nine innings this year? If he can keep that walk rate down he should be on his way to continuing to post numbers that rival if not surpass his 2012 effort in coming seasons.

I’d frame the answer this way. Do you want a “safe” play or an “upside” play? Anderson is more likely to be the stable/solid play next year, especially since I’m not sold on the drastic walk reduction that Samardzija offered this year. The A’s also recently announced that Anderson will not be on an inning pitched count next year so he should be free to let her rip (the Athletics are not the Nationals). Samardzija is likely to produce a substantially higher amount of Ks, like an entire dominating reliever more, so that right arm of his shouldn’t be discounted one bit. Given the fact that neither is going to be your ace in 2013, I’d favor the power righty from Chicago.

With Adam Dunn down, who is the best option for the rest of the season: Mark Reynolds, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones?
– @JohnnyCrashMLB

Dunn cannot get over that oblique issue he is dealing with as the White Sox try to hold off the Tigers for the AL Central title (they are leading by one game). Dunn is also sitting on the cusp of season season long milestones with 38 homers, 88 RBIs and 79 runs scored, oh and he has 194 Ks too. If you’re a Dunn owner you’ve been without your slugger for a week now, and that time on the shelf may be extended. So who do you target to add to your club?

Reynolds has been stroking it for a while now. The last three weeks he has gone deep nine times with 17 RBIs, 14 runs scored an a 1.157 OPS.  Don’t forget that he also brings some positional flexibility with his first and third base qualification. Taking things back a bit further, let’s go to the start of August, he’s gone deep 13 times with 27 RBIs, 24 runs scored an a .271 batting average over 36 games. We all know how streaky he can be, but right now the streaking is a good thing as he’s making it happen in the power categories while doing something odd – not hurting you in the batting average category.

Morneau may not be all the way back, but he’s close, and that’s great news for a guy who has been battling it for so long. One homer from returning to the 20 HR plateau, Justin is hitting .278 with 75 RBIs in 119 games for the Twins. He hasn’t had any success, like none, against lefties (.231-2-19 with a .575 OPS in 173 ABs), but he has mashed righties (.307-17-56 with a .952 OPS in 280 ABs). He’s also been on the top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .318 with eight homers and 37 RBIs in 54 games.

Jones, like Reynolds, also qualifies at two spots (1B and OF). Of course, this decision is more about the power bat that the players are wielding than it is about positional flexibility (more on that below). Jones has hit 23 homers, a career best, and is two runs (he has 62) and 11 RBIs (75) from tying his career bests. He’s also sporting a .283 batting average after failing to reach .250 in either of the past two seasons. Like Morneau he is a total waste against lefties (.210/.250/.339 in 62 ABs), and like Morneau and Reynolds he’s been very sharp of late. Over his last 39 games Jones has hit .316 with seven homers, 26 RBIs and 22 runs scored providing those that have been playing him with some near elite level hitting.

Honestly, there is no wrong answer here. In truth, all three men have actually been better fantasy performers in the second half of the season than Dunn who has hit .207 with 13 homers and 27 RBIs. At this point of the season there’s little chance that even a .300 hitter for the final 20 games is going to move the needle on your team batting average since you’ll have so many at-bats piled up on your squad (not to mention that you’ve been saddled with that .208 deadweight that is Dunn’s batting average this year). There’s also no real speed to speak of with this group either, so we can forget about steals. Morneau and Jones are pretty useless against lefties, so that dings them. Given that Jones qualifies at two spots he would be my selection over Morneau (you never know when you might need that flexibility so I’ll let it be the tipping point between those two). So it’s Jones versus Reynolds for me. Given that I’m  operating under the assumption that batting average isn’t a real concern here I’d roster Reynolds and hope his power/run producing ways continue to impress the final couple of weeks of 2012 (over at Fleaflicker Reynolds isn’t owned in as many leagues as I would think he would be).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT.

Mailbag: September6, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Three keepers between Aramis Ramirez, Elvis Andrus, Zack Greinke, Anthony Rizzo, David Ortiz and Mike Morse?
– @SammyLlenas

Keeper questions are always tough. Are there dollar figures attached? Are there contract years attached to the players? What positions does your league start? Five outfielder or three? Corner and Middle infielders? How many teams in your league? In lieu of that information, I’ll just dive right in and give my thoughts.

Ramirez is dealing with a minor back issue, but it hasn’t precluded him from doing what he always does, and that is performing like a top-10 third baseman. After a slow start to the year he’s predictably killed it of late. Through 126 games this season he’s hitting .295 with 21 homers, 89 RBIs and 43 doubles, an NL leading total. There’s also this. In each of the the last nine seasons in which he has appeared in 123 games Aramis has hit at least 21 homers with 85 RBIs. He is 34, and his fly ball rate has declined the past two years, so 30 homers isn’t likely to happen anymore, but the rest of his game is still nails.

Andrus has hit .298 this year, the best of his four year career. His OBP is .361, the best of his young career. His SLG is .391, the best of his young career. That’s all good stuff. His steal total is down a bit with 20, after 3-straight years of 30 steals, so that’s a concern in the fantasy world. He’s also scored 76 times putting him on pace to pretty much inch up to his 92 runs scored average the past two years. Given his age, the offense he plays in, and the improvements in his game at the plate, and the position he plays, he’s a very attractive keeper option.

Greinke has improved his work of late, after a rough start to his return to the AL. I spoke about the Angels’ hurler in my Around the Horn video.

Rizzo started out on fire when called up by the Cubs, but he’s predictably regressed. Oh he’s still hitting a solid .290 with 11 homers in 241 at-bats, an excellent turnaround after last years unmitigated disaster with the Padres (.141 with one homer in 128 at-bats). Rizzo has hit .238 with 12 homers in 369 career at-bats, terrible numbers for a corner infield option in mixed leagues. Even if we just forget about last season with the Padres, Rizzo’s current pace, spread out over 550 at-bats, would lead to a season of .290-25-73-68, and those just aren’t very impressive numbers for a mixed league first baseball. There’s also the fact that he’s been a below average fly ball hitter in his young career, and that his current line drive rate of 26 percent just isn’t sustainable.

Ortiz has played just nine games at first base the past two years. As a designated hitter only option in the fantasy game, Ortiz’ value is somewhat limited. It won’t matter if he’s hitting .318 with a 1.026 OPS like he has this year. Unfortunately for Ortiz, the last time that he posted an OPS over 1.000 was 2007. There’s also the matter of him hitting .257/.356/.498 from 2008-10. Is it really safe to assume that a 37 year old, coming off a significant Achilles injury, is going to continue to hit as well as he did this season? I’ll answer that question for you. No it is not. I’m not saying that Ortiz couldn’t pop 30 homers and knock in 100 runs next year, that’s possible given his resurgence, but he’s not likely to hit .300, he isn’t going to post a .415 OBP (his current mark), and he’s not going to maintain that .611 SLG. Just not gonna happen.

Morse hit .303 with 31 homers and 95 RBIs last season, his first full season in the big leagues. Already 30 years old, he’s a bit older than you likely thought. He’s battled successfully through injuries this season hitting .287 with 12 homers and 47 RBIs through 82 games, but that effort is well off his pace from last season (is he were to maintain his pace over the 522 at-bats he had last season he would hit .287 with 19 homers and 79 RBIs). I’m also tremendously concerned by the fact that he’s just been unable to learn how to take a pitch. After a mere 36 walks last year he’s become even less patient this year with just 13 walks. Thirteen. It’s pretty amazing he’s hit nearly .300 since the start of last season given that fact.

Ortiz is too old to keep, and with the utility only eligibility, I’ll pass. Greinke is a top level arm, but in a setup where you are only keeping three players I see little need to hold a pitcher who isn’t a top-10 option. Who is the last guy I would let go? For me, it’s Morse or Rizzo (I’m holding Aramis and Andrus). Rizzo may or may not be more productive than Morse next season, but he is seven years younger and does have a higher ceiling. Given that fact I’d lean Rizzo, though at the same time it’s not the easiest call I’ve ever made given that I have no faith that Rizzo will be a top-50 fantasy player in 2013.

Who do you like rest of the way, Ryan Ludwick, Mark Reynolds, or Delmon Young?
– @LorenzKong2

Ludwick has hit .276 with 25 homers and 72 RBIs in just 373 at-bats this season. He’s also been a star in the second half hitting .321 with 13 homers, 38 RBIs an a 1.016 OPS in 48 games. While all of that sounds like Ludwick should be the must hold here, what about these two salient points. (1) Ludwick last hit a homer on August 18th meaning he’s gone 14 games without a homer. He’s also produced just three RBIs in that time. He’s not exactly trending up. (2) Ludwick hit .237 with 13 homers last year, and .251 with 17 homers in 2010. Not exactly a solid set of efforts. In fact, since a career best season in 2008, Ludwick regressed each of the past three seasons before returning to prominence this year.

Reynolds has been a massive disappointment. Still, some notes. (1) His .232 batting average is only five points off his career rate. (2) His .350 OBP would be a career best. (3) His .797 OPS is only .016 points off his career pace. (4) His 0.47 BB/K mark would be a career best. Ditto his 30.3 percent K-rate. (5) His 22.2 percent line drive rate would be a career best. He’s failed to reach even 17.5 percent the past three years. So why the struggles this year? His power stroke vanished for a long while. The good news is that it’s back. With a vengeance. In his last six games he’s gone deep six times, has driven in 13 runs, and scored eight times. Going back further, over his last 28 games, Reynolds is hitting .304 with a 1.113 OPS, 20 runs scored, 23 RBIs and 10 homers. Killing it (the folks over at Fleaflicker are starting to take notice).

Young doesn’t have near the power of the other two options, but he is a very stable option at the dish, something the other two men can’t exactly claim to be. He’s also surging over his last 30 games. Young is hitting .321 with six bombs and 20 RBIs for the Tigers. The power isn’t likely to last, his total of 17 homers is already the second best mark of his six year career (he’s averaged 14 homers a season the last five years). He is a .286 career hitter, so that .277 batting average could come up a tad without anyone raising an eyebrow.

Young is hot, and is the best option in batting average. Ludwick has had a nice bounce back season, a terrific one in fact, but he has slumped. Reynolds is the hottest hitter at the moment, and the one likely to make the biggest dent the rest of the way. A .300 batting average from Delmon over 100 at-bats isn’t going to do much of anything for a team that has racked up thousands upon thousands of at-bats. Reynolds could help in the homer, RBI and runs scored enough to help a team gain a point here or there in the standings.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT.