K-BAD 2011: PART I

I was fortunate to be invited back to KFFL’s Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft, K-BAD for short, for the second straight year. Last year, despite some injury and poor performance, I was able to grab third place in the league, a mere 0.5 points out of second place (you can see the team I drafted by visiting 2010 K-BAD: PART III. This year I am back to finish at the top of the heap.

In what follows you’ll see the players I chose for the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league, as well as being able to read my thoughts on why I chose the players that I did. For a full review of the entire league and what the other owners were thinking while they were making their selections (there are certainliy some big name participants in the draft), make sure you visit the K-BAD Homepage at KFFL.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 1-8: Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers.
Braun should be a top-5 selection in all drafts (I had him at #3 overall in The Top-25 for 2011), so I was exceedingly pleased to take him 8th overall. In each of his four seasons Braun has produced a 5×5 line of at least .285-25-97-91-14. Only four men reached those totals in 2010 – and those are Braun’s career worst totals.

Round 2-5: Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies.
In my book Utley is still the top dog at second, ever so slightly ahead of Robinson Cano because of his steal potential (you can see my argument in Top-10 2B for 2011). Injured last season, Utley was still on pace for 22 homers, 88 RBI, 101 runs and 18 thefts if he had played 155 games.

Round 3-8: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates.
I didn’t think McCutchen would make it back to me next round, so I figured I might as well make a move now if I wanted to roster this luminous talent. The Pirates dampen his outlook somewhat, but Andrew is one of those players who can be a five category contributor with the potential to blow up in 2012.

Round 4-5: Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox.
I almost took the plunge on Ian Kinsler, but with Chase Utley already on board at second, I went for the mind numbing consistency of Dunn. I’ll take the 40 homers and 100 RBI that he will produce knowing he could push 50 dingers in his new home in Chicago.

Round 5-8: CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees.
I never go pitching this early in 12 team drafts, but I couldn’t pass up the value that Sabathia brings given this draft spot after 2-straight seasons of at least 19 wins, 197 Ks and a 1.19 WHIP. I’ll wait on outfielders and hopefully get one of my targets next round.

Round 6-5: B.J. Upton, OF, Rays .
Sweet. Upton was one of three outfielders I almost took in the fifth round, so taking Sabathia with my last pick didn’t hinder me in the least. Shane Victorino is a safer selection than Upton, but one of these days Upton is gonna to have a monster season. Will it be 2011?

Round 7-8: Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves.
I never take two SPs in my first seven choices – never – but when Martin Prado and Stephen Drew were taken right before me I went with Hanson. Not seeing any hitters who stuck out, I figured I’d take the top SP on my board and then head back to offense in the next couple of rounds.

Round 8-5: Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles.
I really wanted to take Ben Zobrist for the positional flexibility, but third base was getting thin fast. Plus, I already have a second sacker in Utley. I think there’s still talent at the seocnd base position, so I’ll wait to add up the middle strength until the next round.

Round 9-8: Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Rays.
This draft is playing out exactly as I hoped. I took Mark Reynolds last round hoping to wait for my MI option, and the strategy worked to perfection as I grabbed Zobrist. I was tempted to take Howie Kendrick, but dual position eligibility swung my selection to Zobrist.

Round 10-5: Joakim Soria RP, Royals.
I really like having one closer I can count on, and Soria is an absolute beast. I also figured that my selection of a closer would cause others to target the bullpen hopefully letting others I covet to fall to me in the 11th round (Note: I was right as Neftali Felix, Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera were taken in the next six picks).

In PART II, I’ll continue my review of the squad.

By Ray Flowers

Random ADP Thoughts

l probably touch on plenty of Average Draft Position data over the coming month plus as we get ready for the start of the regular season. Today, I’m gonna look at the data from Mock Draft Central and point out some of the more vexing things I’m currently seeing.

Is Andre Ethier really a top-11 outfielder like he is being drafted (ADP of 40)? The dude has a beautiful swing, you’ll get no argument from me there, but there are some serious concerns with me if you are thinking of going with Ethier in the top-40 or so picks. (1) He’s only had one season of 25 homers. (2) He’s only had one season of 85 RBI. He’s only had one season of 400 at-bats in which he hit .295. (4) He’s never stolen more than six bases. So let’s boil that down. How much would you pay for a .295-25-85 season with six steals? Aubrey Huff hit .290 with 26 homers, 86 RBI and seven steals last year and his ADP this year is 111. I’m just saying.

Rickie Weeks is going off the board eight picks before Ian Kinsler and 70 before Kelly Johnson. Huh. I know Kinsler is an injury waiting to happen, but really, is he any more of a risk than Weeks? In three of the his six seasons Weeks has failed to appear in 100 games. Kinsler has appeared in at least 100 games in each of his five seasons. Let’s compare the performance of each man per 162 games.

Weeks: .253-22-67-113-23
Kinsler: .281-24-83-115-28
Johnson: .269-18-70-91-11

I snuck Johnson in there at the end to show that he is likely the best option of all three if you are talking about a return on your investment. I wouldn’t put his upside anywhere near to the other two, but there could be value in selecting him five rounds later. By the way, I’m not sold on anyone taking Weeks before Kinsler.

I get why people are scared off from Mark Reynolds, I mean the dude hit .198 last year. But should he be going off the board at pick 129? Over the past three years, here is how Reynolds ranks amongst third sackers: he is first with 104 homers, fourth with 284 RBI, second with 264 runs scored and third with 185 extra base hits. Are you really sure he isn’t a better value than the Pirates up and coming slugger Pedro Alvarez who is going off the board with an ADP of 88? Alvarez hit only .256 last year, Reynolds is .242 for his career, and Alvarez struck out 119 times in just 347 at-bats. I really don’t see too much difference there.

Alex Gordon is barely cracking the top-400 right now, and with good reason after he hit a mere .215 in 242 at-bats with the Royals last season. Still, the guy was the #2 overall selection in the 2005 Draft, he’s just 27 years old, and I think the Royals will give him a legit shot at everyday playing time making him a terrific AL-only option with some mixed league appeal (if you grab him really late). Don’t overlook that Gordon punished Triple-A pitching last year to the tune of a .315-14-44-59-7 line in a mere 68 games. It’s now or never time for him, and he knows it.

Roy Oswalt led the NL in WHIP last season (1.03) and he is going off the board as the 27th starting pitcher with an ADP of 101. Let’s compare, for giggles, his work last season to that of Zack Greinke who is going off the board in the top-10 amongst starters with an ADP of 51.

Oswalt: 13-13, 2.76 ERA, 193 Ks, 1.03 WHIP, 3.51 K/BB in 211.2 IP
Greinke: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 181 Ks, 1.25 WHIP, 3.29 K/BB in 220 IP

Surprised? I’ll give Greinke a boost in value since he will now be in the NL, and he clearly is the one of the duo who has more “upside,” but really, does that justify the fact that he is going off the board 50 selections ahead of Oswalt? Not in my mind.

If you have any questions drop me a line at rflowers@fanball.com, and make sure you follow me on Twitter at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter account.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010

(1) Adrian Gonzalez traded to Red Sox.

(2) Derek Jeter agrees to 3-year deal with Yankees.

(3) Mariano Rivera agrees to 2-year deal with Yankees.

(4) Lance Berkman signs with Cardinals.

(5) Cliff Lee will become insanely rich.

(6) Carl Pavano will hit it big as 2nd best SP on market.

(7) Jayson Werth gets seven years from Nationals.

(8) Adam Dunn signs with White Sox.

(9) Carl Crawford looking for $150 million plus over eight years.

(10) Mark Reynolds now an Oriole.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know…

I throw up one of these pieces every once in a while, an as we all head off to our 2010 Turkey Day celebrations I thought it apropos to look back and give thanks for some rather interesting production from the men on the diamond

Did You Know… Jose Bautista scored 49.5 percent of his runs by knocking himself in as he went deep 54 times while scoring 109 runs (the homers led baseball, the runs were 6th)? Albert Pujols, who led baseball with 115 runs, only knocked himself in 36.5 percent of the time. The only player who scored 100 runs this season while hitting less than 10 homers was the Tigers’ Austin Jackson who scored 103 times while hitting just four long balls.

Did You Know… Ian Desmond led baseball with 34 errors, seven more than any other player (Starlin Castro, 27 errors)? Castro may have caught him if he had played a full compliment of games as the Cubs’ shortstop suited up for only 123 games, 27 less than Desmond. These young shortstops both have bright futures, but both could stand to tidy things up on defense.

Did You Know… Prince Fielder was the only player in baseball to hit under .265 while posting an OBP of at least .380? Fielder hit just .261 though his 114 walks – the most in baseball – helped him to a .401 OBP. Moreover, he was the only player in baseball to post an OBP of at least .395 who didn’t hit at least .300. Yeah he had a “down” year, but Fielder was pretty darn productive despite the prevailing wisdom that he was awful because he had only 83 RBI.

Did You Know… Jeff Keppinger had the best BB/K mark in baseball amongst qualifiers (502 plate appearances) with a 1.42 mark? He was followed by arguably the two best hitters in baseball in Albert Pujols (1.36) and Joe Mauer (1.23), who in turn were followed by the only two other men in baseball who posted a mark of at least 1:1 (Daric Barton – 1.23, Chase Utley – 1.00). At the other end of the spectrum we have Andruw Jones at 0.19. If we had seven Andruw Jones and we added them together that we would still come up short of the mark of Keppinger (1.33 to 1.42).

Did You Know… Juan Pierre led baseball with 18 caught stealing attempts? Of course, he also led baseball with 68 steals so we can overlook the CS run. Still, 18 is a pretty big number when you consider that he was caught stealing more times than Nelson Cruz or Jimmy Rollins were successful (they each had 17 steals).

Did You Know… Albert Pujols is more than just a hitter as he actually led baseball in putouts (1,458), total chances (1,619) and double plays (146) in the field? He also made only four errors on the year leading to a .998 fielding percentage once again showing that he might be the most complete player in baseball – even if the talk of his greatness is usually limited to his work at the dish.

Did You Know… Mark Reynolds is the only player in baseball who hit at least 30 homers in 2010 yet failed to rap out at least 23 doubles? Reynolds had only 17. Given that he hit 28 and 30 the previous two years, his ’10 effort has to be seen as a downer. Of course, he also fell from 24 steals to just seven, while his average fell .044 points below his career rate of .242, so it wasn’t just the loss of doubles that led many a Reynolds owner to consider hitting the bottle at 11 AM in the morning through most of the 2010 season.

By Ray Flowers

History and 3B for 2011

I got a hankering to write about third sackers today, so I’m gonna lead off the piece today with that before moving on to two players whose place in history is already secure. Will those two “old timers” hang them up after the 2010 season, or will they continue to hang around?

Aramis Ramirez just can’t stay healthy, and his most recent visits to the doctor’s office is for a strained quadriceps muscle. At the same time the guy has been nails since the All-Star game hitting .295 with an .899 OPS. He’s also gone deep 12 times while knocking in 41 runs in just 45 games – that’s roughly a pace for 45 homers and 150 RBI. That recent run of excellence has upped his year marks to 22 homers and 73 RBI in just 403 at-bats on the season. By the way, Ramirez has the same homer total as Alex Rodriguez and one more than Evan Longoria, while only one third basemen in the game has more RBI in fewer at-bats this season (Scott Rolen has 78 RBI in 408 at-bats). I’m still going to have Aramis Ramirez in my top-10 third basemen next season, in fact, I’ll likely have him much higher than that. Since I brought it up, here are my thoughts on who my top-10 are at third base for the 2011 season (if you want to see how the supremely intelligent Ted Carlson ranked the top-10 third basemen for next season you can give his piece a read his his Five Tool Blog). Here is my list.

1- David Wright

2- Evan Longoria

3- Alex Rodriguez

4- Ryan Zimmerman

5- Aramis Ramirez

6- Mark Reynolds

7- Pablo Sandoval

8- Michael Young

9- Adrian Beltre

10- Jose Bautista

I want to puke at listing Bautista at #10, but there will be many who will likely put him even higher. Putting Pablo ahead of Young is a bit risky, but I’m going with the youngster and the upside potential over Mr. Reliable from Texas. I hesitate to list Reynolds 6th given that he is batting a rancid .211, but he is still second at the position with 32 bombs, has knocked in 83 runs, has stolen seven bases and scored 74 runs.

Ivan Rodriguez hit an impressive .296 over the first 60 games of the season, but he has regressed substantially since the All-Star break with a .229 mark. On the year he is batting .270 which is certainly passable for a catcher, but his OBP is a sickly .292 which looks slightly better when you compare it to his mere .348 SLG. I-Rod is 193 hits short of becoming the first catcher to ever produce 3,000 hits, but does he have enough left to play two more season to get there?

Trevor Hoffman picked up his 600th save the other night in a truly remarkable display of longevity and effectiveness. Mariano Rivera has 555 career saves, but the next highest hurler who is currently in the big leagues is Billy Wagner (417) who has already stated, emphatically, that this will be his last season. This begs the question – who will be the next member of the 500 save club? The answer might be nobody, especially since the next active hurler is Francisco Cordero with 285 saves.

Back to Hoffman for a moment. He does have a 6.09 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP on the season, numbers that are completely out of place for the HOF bound hurler signaling that his career is at an end. However, if you look beneath the surface you will realize that over his last 29 games that he has posted a 2.63 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He’s no longer a viable 9th inning option, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t help someone’s bullpen in a setup role in 2011 if he wished to continue his illustrious career.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 18, 2010

(1) Troy Tulowitzki to miss 6-8 with broken wrist. Carlos Gonzalez also out on Friday.

(2) Jake Peavy has fluid, will still pitch on Saturday.

(3) Rich Harden has shot to accelerate healing process.

(4) Derek Holland tweaks knee while doing rehab work for shoulder.

(5) Mark Reynolds out of lineup, injured and struggling (13 Ks in 15 ABs).

(6) Alex Rodriguez back at third, Jorge Posada should be able to catch in interleague play

(7) Returning on Friday from injury- Jason Bay, Orlando Hudson.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April26, 2010

(1) Ryan Howard backs up the money truck, and it’s fully loaded.

(2) Ian Kinsler to hit 5th upon return.

(3) Red Sox lineup in flux.

(4) Miguel Olivo gaining more looks at expense of Chris Iannetta.
*NOTE: After video was made, the club demoted Iannetta to Triple-A in the hopes that he will relax and rediscover his stroke.

(5) Jeff Suppan out of rotation, replaced by Chris Narveson.

(6) D’backs offense looks good with Johnson-Young-Reynolds.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 15, 2010

(1) Is the 27 year old breakout season a reality or a myth? See below for links.

(2) Which 1B/2B/3B are being undervalued in fantasy leagues? See below for links.

(3) Yovani Gallardo looked really good on Monday dominating the Indians.

(4) Brian Roberts gets epidural for injured back.

(5) Kerry Wood shut down with back woes.

(6) Joe Nathan to throw on Saturday, test elbow.

(7) Octavio Dotel improving, should pitch in game this week.

(8) Mark Reynolds becomes a rich man in desert.

27-Year-Olds: Hitters.

27-Year-Olds: Pitchers.

Taking Sides: First Base.

Taking Sides: Second Base.

Taking Sides: Third Base.

By Ray Flowers

Player Movement Thoughts

Finally, we’ve got some baseball news that doesn’t pertain to the World Series. With organizations analyzing where there team stand and what needs to be done to improve their outlook for 2010, here are some of the stories that are currently making the rounds.

The Royals made the odd decision to bring in Josh Fields in a trade with the White Sox despite the fact that they already have a third basemen in Alex Gordon. Does this move signify that the Royals have given up on their former first round draft pick? Apparently not. The team appears set to open the year with Gordon at third base and Fields possibly in the outfield. For more information on the deal that brought Fields to town, given Kyle Elfrink’s blog Royals with Cheese a read.

Curtis Granderson might be available in a trade according to reports. Curtis struggled to his worst performance in the batting average category at .249 in 2009, largely because of an extreme inability to his left-handed pitching (.183 in 180 ABs). Still, the dude has produced an average of 25 homers, 70 RBI, 108 runs and 19 steals the past three years. If you ask me he is totally miscast as a leadoff man but he would profile as a terrific #5 option. Owed “only” $26 million the next three years, one would think he would bring a lot in a deal if the Tigers do indeed decide to move him.

Ken Griffey Jr. will return for one more year with the Mariners after signing an incentive laden one year deal. Griffey, who turns 40 later this month, is coming off an abysmal season of a .214 average, but he did sock 19 homers in 387 ABs. In addition, after striking out 40 times in 230 ABs in the first half he slumped to 40 in 157 ABs after the All-Star break. I hope that the guy has one final season of productivity in that bat of his, but the data seems to suggest otherwise.

Joe Mauer and the Twins have begun the difficult task of working out a contract extension. Mauer has one year left on a deal that will pay him $12.5 million in 2010. The question with Mauer has nothing to do with his skills but whether or not a small market club like the Twins can afford to pay their catcher more than $15 million a year. In fact, it wouldn’t be shocking if Mauer’s representatives started with something like a 5-year, $100 million deal as a jumping off point. Is a catcher worth that amount of loot?

While the Giants would like to bring back Juan Uribe after he hit .289 with 16 homers for the club in under 400-ABs, he could price himself out of the Giants comfort zone with a desire for a big ticket, multi-year deal. As a result, the Giants are in the market for an infielder with some pop. According to Fox Sports they have been in contact with the Marlins about second baseman Dan Uggla who the Marlins appear desperate to move considering that he is on his way to a big pay day in arbitration (possibly upwards of $8-9 million). The Giants already have Freddy Sanchez at second so if they do acquire Uggla it would appear that the team would potentially move Dan to third base resulting in Pablo Sandoval moving across the diamond to first base (the team could also go with Uggla at first and leave Pablo at third). Uggla is a whiff machine, 150 or more the past three years, but he also has gone deep at least 30-times in each of the past three seasons. Do you know how many second baseman in history have hit at least 30-homers 3-straight years? Uggla is the only one. Moreover, Uggla has hit 27 homers with a least 88 RBI and 84 runs in each of his four big league seasons, and no other second baseman in history has accomplished that feat either. In truth, there were only three third basemen in 2009 that went 27-88-84 and they were Evan Longoria, Mark Reynolds and Ryan Zimmerman.

By Ray Flowers

The Ideal First Round

We are still months away from the 2010 major league season, shoot, we aren’t even to the World Series yet, but that doesn’t mean that I’m not knee deep in baseball data right now as we are beginning to put together out first 2010 Baseball Magazine (it should be out in time to stuff your holiday stocking). Given that, combined with our recent purchase of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship which uses 15 team leagues, I thought I would run through my ideal first round for 2010. It won’t be the last time I do this leading up to the actual draft weekend, but sitting here today this is how I see things playing out.

1- Hanley Ramirez
How is this for a three year average from a shortstop: .325-29-85-117-38. His steal total is dipping (51, 35 and 27), but the average has been over .330 two of the past three years and he knocked in 106 runs batting third this season.

2- Albert Pujols
I know, I know. How could he not be #1? At this point I’m putting him #2 because of his most recent elbow operation and the slight concern I have about that. You can read my thoughts on the matter at Is Perception Reality?

3- Alex Rodriguez
Showing, once again, what he can do when the stars align. If we add in the eight playoff games he has played this year he has produced a .293-35-111-88-15 line in just 132 games this season.

4- Ryan Braun
Strikes out too much without drawing walks (his 0.35 BB/K mark for his career is well below the 0.50 major league average), but he has managed to hit .308 in his three seasons. Doesn’t have the speed of Kemp (though he had 20 steals in ’09), but of the two this is the guy would could hit 40 homers with 120 RBI and a .330 batting average.

5- Matt Kemp
I don’t like the large K totals (153 and 139 the past two years), but how can I argue with a guy who in his second full season hit .297-26-101-97-34? 30/30 is the next step.

6- Miguel Cabrera
The best right handed power hitter in the AL who hasn’t been linked to performance enhancing drugs, Cabrera has hit at least .320 in four of five seasons while also knocked in at least 112 runs five times in six years.

7- Chase Utley
Shrugged off the hip surgery to produce spectacularly. He went 20/20 for the first time (31 homers, 23 steals), scored 100-runs for the fourth straight year and has now gone at least .280-22-93-93 in each of the past five seasons.

8- Ian Kinsler
How many players went 30/30 this past season? One, and he plays second base for the Rangers (he had 31 homers and 31 steals). Even though he hit only .253 he still scored 101 runs with 86 RBI.

9- Tim Lincecum
The best pitcher in the game. Period.

10- Ryan Howard
Wildly deficient in steals (10 career) and average (only once over .280 the past four years), but with 4-straight 45 homer, 135 RBI seasons who cares?

11- Jacoby Ellsbury
Major league steals leader (70) doesn’t have the power of Crawford, but he has more steal upside, has scored at least 94 runs each of the past two years, and upped his average .021 points in just his second full season (.301).

12- Carl Crawford
Even with a late season fade he still set a career best with 60 steals, his fifth 50+ steal season in seven years, while scoring 96 runs, hitting 15 bombs, and batting .305.

13- Mark Teixeira
I don’t think he takes the next step to outright greatness, but in that park, and with that lineup around him, he is as close as a guy can be to a completely lock to hit 30 homers with 100 RBI and a batting average of .280+ (6-straight years).

14- Roy Halladay
Yes Zack Greinke was better last season, but at the same time Halladay has been the most consistently excellent pitcher in the game the past four years. There is also the growing specter of Halladay being dealt, and that would likely help him in the “W” category much more than Greinke will be aided pitching for the Royals.

15- Mark Reynolds
Reynolds was the only man who hit 40 homers while knocking in 100 runs and stealing 20 bases. Reynolds set a major league record with 223 Ks, so I still worry about his ability to match his .260 mark from last season, and honestly, I would never take him this high, though some might even put him higher on the list so I added him, grudgingly, to the list.

By Ray Flowers