Fantasy Baseball: Player Volatility

Sometimes people miss the point. We’re all guilty of this (even the great Oracle isn’t always understanding of everything that is presented to him). In this piece I thought I would try to explain a few things that might be missed when people look at players and try to discern what is going on with their value.

There is no certainty in baseball. Yes Albert Pujols always hits 30 homers with 99 RBIs (has every year from 2001-12). Some day that run will end, just like it has for a guy like Mark Teixeira who went 30-100 each year from 2004-11 before injuries limited him to 24 homers and 84 RBIs last year in 123 games (he’s not likely to get there this season either due to his wrist injury). Injuries play a huge part in whether or not players live up to expectations.

A player’s personal life can impact his game. Did he sleep well? Did he get in a fight with his wife? Is his kid sick? Did his lawyer steal money from him? Players are people too and they are all dealing with the same things we all do on a daily basis.

Hopefully all of those things were obvious to you. Now let’s dig a little deeper into some other points that are often overlooked.

Wins and loses, and I say this all the time, come and go. Cliff Lee was a top-15 starting pitcher last year in terms of his skills, but he won six games with a 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Ricky Nolasco won twice as many games, 12, and his ratios were 4.48 and 1.37. There’s just no way to know how the record will play out. I think most folks get this one.

What about saves? As I’ve noted elsewhere, the man who leads baseball in saves the past three years – Jose Valverde – doesn’t even have a team to call home right now. Moreover, only three men in baseball have had 20 saves each of the past four seasons (Valverde, Huston Street and Jonathan Papelbon). Are you really sure you can predict which closers are “locks?” I think most folks get this one too.

What about homers? A guy goes from 30 homers to 20 and people freak out. Would it surprise you to learn that both numbers fall within the realm of imminently possible for a 25 homer hitter. Think about it. That’s a +5 or a (-5) in either direction. That 25 homer guy hits 30 one year and 20 the next his two year average is… what do you know, 25. Take the case of Nick Swisher. Over the past seven seasons he has averaged 27 homers a season with a high of 35 and a low of 22. That’s a spread of 13 which, if you divide by two gives you 6.5. Add that to 22 and your at 28.5. Subtract it from 35 and you’re at 28.5. Take a look at his year marks while keeping in mind two things, (1) that 27 average homer mark a season and (2) he is about as consistent a bat as there is in the game: 35, 22, 24, 29, 29, 23 and 24. Another way to look at his situation is to saw that he has FAILED to reach his seven year average four times in the past seven years.

What about batting average? This one is a tough to understand for some folks. We can talk about BABIP and line drive rates all we want, but let’s keep things simple and take a look at Dexter Fowler. In 2010 he hit .260 and people were disappointed. In 2011 he hit .266 and people were disappointed. In 2012 he hit .300 and people were happy. As I noted we can point to the .390 BABIP as a major reason his average went up, but there is also this – what about random luck/chance?

In 2010-11 Fowler averaged 460 at-bats a season. He had 454 at-bats in 2012, a virtually identical mark.

In 2010-11 Fowler averaged 121 hits a season. In 2012 he had 136 hits.

Fowler obviously had 15 more hits last season than his average the previous two years. The baseball season is 26 weeks long. That means in 2012 Fowler had an average of 0.58 more hits a week than he did the previous two seasons. That’s it folks. Barely half a hit difference per week over the course of the season led to Fowler’s average going up almost .040 points. Forty. A grounder off the tip of a glove here. A bad break by an outfielder on a ball hit in the gap. Hitting the ball an eighth of an inch lower on the barrel of the bat there. Barely half a hit a week over the course of the season changed his average by nearly .040 points. The point is that a .280 hitter could just as easily hit .260 as he could .300, even if you don’t want to hear or accept that fact. Remember that when you bail on a guy because his average dropped the previous season. Don’t just discount a guy until you do some digging to find out what is really going on with him.

In closing hopefully something in this piece resonated with you. We focus on numbers in baseball, especially in fantasy baseball, but sometimes the raw number don’t tell the whole story.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – First Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHERS

2012 FIRST BASE Top-10

1  Miguel Cabrera
2  Albert Pujols
3  Joey Votto
4  Prince Fielder
5  Adrian Gonzalez
6  Mark Teixeira
7  Paul Konerko
8  Eric Hosmer
9  Gaby Sanchez
10  Lance Berkman

* David Ortiz and Billy Butler were listed at DH.

Cabrera won the AL Triple Crown hitting .330-44-139. The homers and RBIs were career bests, and this was his 7th season he’s hit at least .320. The just completed season was also a third straight year of 109 or more runs scored and his 9th straight triple-digit RBI season – every full season of his career.

Pujols started out horrifically and it marred his final numbers though he still hit .285 with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and 85 runs scored. This just might be the player he is now. Even so, he’s still one heck of a hitter.

Votto didn’t have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but did you know that Votto had a better batting average (.337 to .330), OBP (.474 to .393) and OPS (1.041 to .999) than Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera?

Fielder was everything the Tigers hoped he would be in his first season in Motown. He hit a career best .313, had a 4th straight .400 OBP effort, hit 30 homers for the 6th straight year and drove in 108 runs.

Gonzalez had only 18 homers and 75 runs scored, but he still hit .299 and drove in 108 runs. Expectations are the bane of his existence right now. Not mine, I know what A-Gone is, but everyone else’s who seems to think he is a top-15 fantasy overall option. He just isn’t and never was.

Teixeira had gone deep 30 times with 100 RBIs every year from 2004-11. That streak ended as he was held to 24-84 in ’12. However, injuries limited him to just 123 games. If he had appeared in 150 games, a total he reached each year from 2008-11, his prorated effort would have led to 29 homers and 102 RBIs meaning he was still right on pace in the counting categories.

Konerko’s slash line was once again impressive at .298/.371/.486, right in line with his career numbers (.283/.359/.499). However, he failed to hit 30 homers for the first time in three years (26), and his RBI total of 75 was the worst number he had ever posted in a season of 500 at-bats.

Hosmer was a brutal disappointment. He still led AL first sackers in steals (16) and he was just one homer from a 15/15 season. Actually, that’s not awful for a second year player is it? Keep an eye on him in 2013.

Everyone in the world missed on Hosmer who’s outward appearance tanked in his second season, but my call on Sanchez was the worst one I made in over 500 ranked players (I don’t really blame players for being hurt, so it’s hard to find as much fault with the equally pathetic Berkman). After back-to-back seasons of at least 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored he was limited to 299 pathetic at-bats hitting .217 with seven homers, 30 RBIs and 30 runs scored.

Berkman appeared in just 32 games in his worst season, perhaps the last in his career. Even with all the injuries of late, the last time Berkman appeared in less than 120 games in a season was the 2000 season.

Hit: Paul Goldschmidt (#17)
One of those I suggested targeting outside the top-10 was Goldy. The NL’s HR/SB option at first, Goldschmidt socked 20 homers and stole 18 bases. Unlike Hosmer who hit .232, Goldschmidt posted a .286 batting average in an impressive first full season.

Miss: Gaby Sanchez

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August28, 2012

(1) Erik Bedard released by Pirates. Kevin Correia to take over.

(2) Mark Teixeira out 1-2 weeks with calf strain.

(3) Felix Hernandez tosses 5th shutout. Amazing in second half.

(4) Tyler Colvin hot again.

(5) Brett Jackson driving ball into seats. Still striking out.

(6) Luke Gregerson Padres new closer?

(7) Dice-K on waivers. Roy Oswalt passes through waivers.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 8: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Felix Doubront (+38, $288K in DailyJoust Salary)
He has won three of his last four starts, and over his last three outings he’s allowed only five runners to cross home plate (four earned). He continues to pile up the strikeouts, 16 in his last 11.2 innings and 53 in 50 innings on the year, showing his high upside arm. He’s still walked a few too many though with a 4.14 per nine mark, and he’s actually given up a ton of hard hit balls as well (25 percent line drive rate). It’s a big arm that Dubront owns, but I can forsee some inconsistency in his future.

Kevin Millwood (+123, $361K)
Where has this come from? I have no idea either. Over his last three starts Millwood has three victories, has allowed only five hits and a mere run while striking out 15 in 22 innings. Millwood hasn’t pitched like this since, jeez, probably back in 2005. He’s not going to keep this up, his 3.72 ERA and 1.29 WHIP marks are unlikely to hold, but he is locked in right now and may make a nice matchup play, especially when pitching at home.

Jonathon Niese (+44, $219K)
Niese has an over four ERA, and that 1.31 WHIP is solid but not great. Still, there are seeds of success here. Niese has a 7.87 K/9 mark, a solid total, but he needs to bring down the 3.58 walk per nine mark (it’s 3.06 for his career). If he reigns in the free passes, and keeps that impressive 1.88 GB/FB ratio going, he’s bound to drop that ERA into the 3′s.

Mark Teixeira (+37, $112K)
You can only keep a good man down for so long. Dealing with a nasty respiratory issue Tex’s bat has finally awoken. Mark has come alive at the dish with eight hits the last three days including three big flies and eight RBI. He’s pushed his average up to a more palatable .254, and don’t forget that, for whatever reason, Teixeira always seems to improve each year as the weather warms.

Alex Rios (+24, $99K)
Alex Rios is hitting a solid .281 on the year, and he has eight hits in his last five games. Included in those eight hits are three homers and nine RBI as he’s also tossed in a steal, his fifth of the year. He still has a long ways to go to live up to my expectations for him, but his current pace certainly looks a lot more impressive thanks to his hot week at the dish.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Josh Bell (-34, $55K)
I’m sorry folks, but Josh Bell can’t hit. There I said it. It’s only been 13 at-bats but we’re looking at two hits an a .154 average for the D’backs “third baseman.” Per his modus operandi, all Bell has done is strike out (five) and never walk (zero free passes) leaving him with a total of 83 strikeouts in 233 at-bats, an awful total. Add in his six career walks and you have someone with a 0.07 BB/K mark for his career. I didn’t even know that was possible.

Lance Lynn (-70, $246K)
Lynn has failed to go more than six innings in his last four starts, and he’s also allowed 10 runs over his last three outings leading to a 5.00 ERA. Given his overall numbers which include a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP it’s not at all surprising to see Lynn start to fall back to earth a bit. He’s been impressive to this point, but there is regression forthcoming.

Alex Rodriguez (-21, $87K)
Hitting .297 with a .796 OPS, ARod is underperforming. He’s still on pace for about 20 homers, but that’s a far cry from the 30 we are used to seeing. His total of 19 RBI also puts him on pace for less than 80, and the last time that happened in a full season was – never (he’s never had fewer than 84 RBI in a season of 440 at-bats). At least he’s stolen six bases to give him some fantasy value while he tries to figure things out at the dish.

Mike Trout (-23, $88K)
Hitting .302 with four homers, 12 RBI, 18 runs and eight steals in just 27 games is an epic start to Trout’s career. Epic. There’s been some give in his game of late as he’s seen his average drop .048 points the past week as the strikeouts have started to pile up (he has eight in six games). What, you thought he was going to flash HOF levels of production in his first full season?

Ben Zobrist (-19, $64K)
Zobrist is hitting .206. Awful. What makes it even more odd is the fact that he is barely hitting .200 despite the fact that he has three more walks than strikeouts (35 to 32). As a result of the free passes his .352 OBP is only one point short of the .353 mark he had last year when he batted .269. On pace to pretty much match last years total of 20 homers, though to fall well behind in RBI/runs, Zobrist seems primed for a run of effectiveness, but for right now he is awfully cold at the dish.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano/Nick Swisher/Mark Teixeira: All three of these Yankees face King Felix, and in most cases that is a recipe for a benching. However, the three Yankees bats have had ample success against the Mariners’ ace.

Cano: .355/.429/581 with two HRs, 4 RBI in 31 at-bats
Swisher: .238/.333/.548 with 4 HRs, 5 RBI in 42 at-bats
Tex: .321/.393/.679 with five HRs, 9 RBIs in 53 at-bats

Sometimes things don’t make a lot of sense.

Casey Kotchman: Clay Buchholz has allowed only 10 hits to all the players currently on the Indians, it just so happens that six of them have been to Kotchman in 11 at-bats, and that’s good for a .545 average. Kotchman is also eight for 23 of late good for a .348 average the past eight days.

Adrian Beltre: The Rangers’ slugger is back to playing third base after dealing with a lower body injury for a while now, and he’s likely looking forward to facing C.J. Wilson given that he has seven hits in 19 at-bats against the lefty (.368/.429/.684).

Jeff Baker/Geo Soto: The two Cubs batters face the always moderately effective Randy Wolf (if you’re looking for a cheap play, Baker is your guy. Look at how many teams over at Fleaflicker have him rostered). The duo has combined to hit four homers with 13 RBI in 54 at-bats against Wolf with Soto hitting three of the bombs with a .333 average while Baker has hit .417 in the matchup.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Chris Capuano is undefeated through six starts with a 2.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 36 Ks in 36.2 innings. He faces a Rockies club that has hit just .235 against him, and Capuano is 5-1 in his career at Dodger Stadium where the game will take place.

Gio Gonzalez faces a Reds club that he has held to a .109 batting average over 14 innings. The Reds hitters have only managed to bat .109 against Gio who has allowed just three runs in his last five outings this season.

I know I wrote earlier about three hitters from the Yankees that have had a lot of success against Felix Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean King Felix is a bad play Saturday. He is 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his outings at the new Yankees Stadium.

Johan Santana has been fantastic this year with a 2.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 34 strikeouts through 31 innings. He faces the Marlins Saturday, a team that he has gone 6-1 against with a 1.46 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 81 punchouts in 68 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Michael Bourn/Jack Wilson: In 25 at-bats against Adam Wainwright Bourn has hit .320 whereas Wilson has hit .364 in 22 at-bats against the righty from St. Louis.

Omar Infante: The guy just keeps on hitting everyone, including going deep with a greater frequency than we’ve ever seen from the slap hitter. Infante has had immense success against the Mets’ R.A. Dickey with 12 hits in 25 at-bats, good for a  .480 batting average.

Andrew McCutchen: Hitting .330 through 28 games, McC has only two bombs on the year, though they have come in the past five days. McCutchen faces J.A. Happ Saturday, a hurler who he has beat around for three homers and five RBI in just 22 at-bats (he has also hit .364 against Happ).

David Wright: This guy has flat out murdered the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco. Wright, in 57 at-bats, has hit .386 with a 1.118 OPS. He’s also gone deep four times with 13 RBI against the perpetually underachieving Nolasco who has actually performed pretty well this year.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

R.A. Dickey faces a Marlins club that continue to struggle to score despite the talent they possess. Dickey shut down the Marlins earlier this season with a one run, seven inning effort that led to a victory. Dickey was bombed in one start this season but in five of his six outings this season he has produced a “quality start.”

Doug Fister faces the Athletics, arguably the worst offense in baseball. Fister also tossed seven shutout innings in his first start back from the DL to up his season long mark to 10.2 shutout innings. Fister has enjoyed plenty of success in his career against the Athletics with a 5-3 record in 10 outings. Fister has also posted a 2.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over those 60 innings.

Shaun Marcum is 3-0 with a  2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in three games against the Cubs. Rather amazingly he also has 17 Ks and just one walk in 20 innings against the Cubbies.

Adam Wainwright is 6-0 with a  2.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP against Braves in 44 innings. Wainwright has also gone 2-0 with only five runs allowed in his last three starts this year as he rounds into form as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.

CONTESTS

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday May 5th starting at 7pm EST.

Here are the details:

- Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

- It’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

To register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest click on this link.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Derek Jeter: When a guy has a .421 batting average against a pitcher as Jeter does against Bruce Chen, you take notice. When it comes over 38 at-bats you should pay even closer attention. When that batter is hitting .404, leading the AL in batting average, you have yourself a must start.

Carlos Lee: He seems to be over his ankle issue, and he had two hits Tuesday in his last game played. Friday he takes on Kyle Lohse, a pitcher who is on quite the roll this year (4-0, 1.62 ERA, 0.84 WHIP), but one who he has consistently handled in his career. Lee has a substantial 70 at-bats against Lohse, and the results have been mighty impressive as they include five homers, nine RBI, a .300 average an a .965 OPS.

Mark Teixeira: Killing Bruce Chen, besides sounding like a movie title for a Kung Fu epic, could also be the title of Mark Teixeira’s outings against Chen in his career. In 19 at-bats Tex is batting .474 with, get this, a 2.003 OPS. Tex also has six homers and 13 RBI in one of the most impressive batting lines you will ever see for a batter against a pitcher.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Josh Johnson: When the competition is the Padres, opposing pitchers are always worth taking a look at. Over his last two starts Johnson has racked up 17 Ks in just 12 innings, and though his ratios this season leave a lot to be desired (5.34 ERA, 1.74 WHIP), the good news is that (a) he is healthy and (b) he’s facing the Padres in San Diego. In six career starts against the Padres Johnson is just 1-2 but he has 31 Ks in 29.2 innings while posting a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Batters that are currently on the Padres have hit .146 against Johnson.

Jon Lester: Are you looking for a lock? OK, there is no lock in the real world, but this is as good as it could possibly get. Lester not only has a 2.36 ERA an a 1.26 WHIP against the Orioles, but the lefty from Boston is also 14-0 against the club from Baltimore. Wow is right.

Wade Miley: The NL Rookie Pitcher of the Month going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP as he held batters to a microscopic .133 batting average against. He faces a Mets team that has scored only 95 runs, tied for 9th in the NL in runs scored.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Mark Kotsay: This is the type of play for those of you who want to load up on a ton of expensive options on your club leaving you scant money for your final player. Kotsay isn’t a lock to start, but I bet you when the coaching staff of the Padres realizes that he has produced 10 hits and eight RBI against Mark Buehrle in 23 at-bats (.435 average) they will be certain to have Kotsay in their starting lineup.

Joe Mauer: Normally when a guy is facing Felix Hernandez you are very interested in running and hiding which must be how Justin Morneau (.138) and Denard Span (.067) feel. However, one man in baseball actually relishes the matchup and that is Mauer. In an almost incomprehensible run of excellence, Mauer has 13 hits in 26 at-bats against the righty which obviously results in a .500 average. Not just hitting singles either, Mauer has two homers and four doubles amongst his 13 hits.

Martin Prado: It only seems like everyone in baseball has 25 at-bats against Jamie Moyer. Well, Prado is one of those fellas with exactly 25 at-bats, and he’s used them to produce 10 hits leading to a .400 average. He’s also powered three balls into the seats leading to a 1.263 OPS and six RBI. Pretty solid work from this professional hitter wouldn’t you say?

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Chris Capuano: He faces the Cubs, a team that has produced seven hits in 31 at-bats against him amongst the current squad (.226/.273/.484). Capuano is also 8-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP against the Cubs in his career and he’s allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts this season as he’s lowered his yearly ERA down to 2.73.

James McDonald: Over his last three outings James has allowed five runs in 18.2 innings (2.41 ERA) while striking out 20 batters in 18.2 innings. Clearly he’s on a roll right now. Now he will face a Reds team that he is 3-1 against in his career with a 3.06 ERA. Current Reds hitters have also hit only .269 with a .717 OPS and just two homers in 93 at-bats.

Clayton Richard: All you need to know about Richard is whether he is starting at home or on the road. If it’s in San Diego, Richard is never a bad play. In two starts at home this year he is 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.83 WHIP an in his career at Petco Park he is 12-12 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 163 Ks in 202 innings. The Marlins better be wearing their hitting shoes.

CONTESTS

We have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday May 5th starting at 7pm EST.

Here are the details:

- Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

- It’s**FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

Follow these 2 steps to play now:

1. To register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest click on this link.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mike Stanton

Ask anyone and they will tell you that Mike Stanton is a future star in this game. The owner of prodigious power, no park in the land can contain the ferocity with which Stanton sends balls into orbit. Because of his almost unparallelled ability to drive the ball into the cheap seats, Stanton’s value in the fantasy game continues to grow. Take a look over at MockDraftCentral and you’ll find that Stanton’s Average Draft Position is inside the top-25 (24.4 actually). Two questions come to my mind when I see that. (1) Can Stanton live up to those expectations? (2) How can Stanton possibly live up to those expectations? I know those are in effect the same question, I’m just trying to make a point — I think it’s going to be pretty darn difficult for Stanton to be as productive in 2012 as people expect him to be based on where he is being drafted. Before I get to that line of thought, he’s a quick run down of Stanton’s skill set.

Stanton has only 875 big league at-bats in his young career so that makes prognostication somewhat more difficult than normal. The guy has one season of 375 at-bats, so the old sample size question can be rightly brought up here as an uncertainty.

Stanton has hit .259 and .262 in his two big league seasons. In those two years he has hit .261, just every so slightly above the big league average of .256. Can he produce a better batting average than that moving forward? On a positive note he did boost his walk rate by three percent while cutting his strikeout rate by 3.5 percent in his second season. However, his BB/K mark was slightly below the league average at 0.42, and he still struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats (27.6 percent to be precise). That doesn’t sound like a guy who is primed for a batting average increase. Stanton also owns a mere 16.4 percent line drive rate in his career (16.5 and 16.3 percent the last two years). While he should be able to maintain his average given the homers he will hit that don’t count in this measure but lead to hits, it is somewhat concerning that Stanton is pretty far removed from the 19-20 percent big league average.

Stanton is all about the power which he has flashed since day one. However, and yes there actually is a ‘however’ when talking about his power, I have one small concern with Stanton. Much like Ryan Howard, another prodigious power bat, Stanton doesn’t hit as many fly balls as you think. In fact, Stanton’s career fly ball rate of 39.3 percent is only about two percent above the league average. He really doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. As a result, the only way he is going to blast 40+ homers is going to be if he converts a large percentage of those fly balls into home runs. Stanton has done that the last two years with an impressive 24.0 percent HR/F rate, and last year his 24.8 percent HR/F rate was the highest mark in baseball (to compare, the average big league posts a mark of about 10 percent, and even a huge power bat like Albert Pujols had only an 18.3 percent mark last season). Maybe Stanton can lead the league in this category year after year, it’s certainly possible. All I’m saying is that he’s going to have to be near the top of the leader board in HR/F ratio if he wants to hit 40 homers if he doesn’t hit more balls into the air.

Finally, an athletic 6’5”, Stanton has stolen five bases in each of his big league seasons but he’s just not going to run very much – it’s not his game.

So what do we have in Stanton?

(1) We had an hitter who strikes out far too much.

(2) We have a hitter who profiles as a league average contributor in batting average.

(3) We have a hitter with elite power, though one who struggles to hit a lot of fly balls.

(4) We have a player who is unlikely to steal many bases.

Does that sound like a top-25 fantasy player to you?

Let me ask you this – would you be happy if Stanton hit .264 with 40 homers, 106 RBI and 101 runs scored in 2012? You had better say yes because all four of those numbers would be career bests for Stanton. You know who put up those exact numbers in 2007? Try Adam Dunn. Did anyone, EVER, look at Dunn and think he was a top-25 fantasy performer? Anyone? Of course you didn’t. What if Stanton hit .248 with 39 homers, 111 RBI and 90 runs scored in 2012? That would also be considered a career best effort for Stanton so you would have to be please wouldn’t you? Mark Teixeira did that last season and he’s being drafted after Stanton (Tex has a 27.8 ADP). Would you really rather have Stanton over a guy like Teixeira who has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI each of the past eight years given that Tex is also in a great offensive ball yard in a potent offense with the Yankees?

If Stanton improves across the board and has a rather impressive third season, something like either the Dunn or Teixeira campaign’s I mentioned above, he’s still not likely to live up to his top-25 billing. He offers little on the bases to augment his value, and that league average batting mark isn’t going to do him any favors either. I’m not saying to avoid Stanton or that he will fail. I’m merely pointing out that the hope of a huge power season might be causing people to draft Stanton at a point where he can’t possibly live up to expectations.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Adam Dunn

“Any list of the biggest failures in 2011 has to start with Adam Dunn (.159-11-42 in 496 at-bats. I still can’t believe he was that atrocious). However, a teammate of Dunn’s also has to be in the top-10 [Alex Rios]…” That was my opening to my Alex Rios Player Profile from back in November of 2011. Today I’ll complete that thought by discussing the most pathetic performer of 2011 – Mr. Adam Dunn.

Some history.

From 2004-2010 Dunn hit at least 38 homers each year. Only one man in history has a run of more than 7-straight years of hitting 38 or more homers each season. It’s not Babe Ruth who tied with Dunn at seven (1926-32), or Barry Bonds who never did it more than five years in a row (2000-04). The answer to this riddle is actually Rafael Palmeiro (1995-2003).

From 2004-10 Dunn had at least 92 RBI each year. That’s well short of the record of 13-straight such seasons held by Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and Alex Rodriguez. Still, only five men were able to hit that total each year from 2004-10: Albert Pujols, Arod, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera and Dunn.

From 2004-10 Dunn scored at least 79 runs each season. Only six others joined Dunn in that group: Bobby Abreu, Teixeira, Pujols, Cabrera, Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon.

All told, how many big leaguer posted a line of 38 homers, 92 RBI and 79 runs scored each year from 2004-10? The answer is one – Adam Dunn.

So what the hell happened in 2011 to the then 32 year old slugger? Some thoughts.

Maybe he wasn’t totally comfortable in his new home in Chicago?

Maybe the pressure of a big money deal got to him (4-years, $56 million)?

Maybe he lost confidence when he struggled?

Maybe health woes, like his appendicitis, ruined his timing?

Maybe he didn’t like being the DH? He hit mere .176 with a. 621 OPS in 81 such games (to be honest though, those numbers were better than his overall totals of .159 and .569).

Let’s get past the maybe’s and look at the raw data.

As I’ve laid out, there wasn’t a more consistent power hitter in the game than Dunn. At 32 years of age, in a ballpark that benefits hitters, there was zero reason to expect a collapse in 2011. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to roll the calendar back 12 months and find anyone who had a bad thing to say about Dunn as most expected the move to Chicago to lead to at least, at the very worst, a replication, of his 2010 effort (.260-38-103-85). What happened then?

Did he walk less than normal? Nope. His 15.1 percent walk rate was pretty much a match for his 16.2 percent career rate.

Did he strike out more than normal? Heck yes he did. A career 27.6 K rate is terrible, but last season that number grew to epic proportions as it ended up at 35.7 percent. That was only the second time in his career that the mark was over 29 percent.

Did his hit type change? Not if you judge him by his GB/FB rate which was 0.68, a near identical match to his career rate of 0.71 percent. As for his line drive rate it was 20.0 percent. Not only was that mark his third best since 2003, it was also above his 19.6 career rate. So he hit as many grounders, liners and fly balls as normal. Wait, what? I know, it makes no sense does it? Dunn was pretty much the same hitter as always in terms of these three categories. The real issue though was two-fold. (1) His BABIP shrunk to a career worst .240 (career .292). 2011 was only the second time since 2004 that his BABIP mark was under .276. Given a career norm in the line drive category, that dip in BABIP really isn’t explainable, at least not simply (a loss of bat speed, bad luck, etc.). (2) For each season from 2003-10, Dunn had produced a HR/F ratio of 20.8 percent. In 2011 that number dropped to 9.6 percent. To state is another way, Dunn went from being elite to league average overnight. That just doesn’t happen.

Given the totality of his career, his age, and his home ballpark, I find it nearly impossible to predict another outage in 2012. The question is, how much will Dunn bounce back? Admittedly I’m a big fan of the Big Donkey, but I think the data leads to that point of view. If I had to put a floor on his production I’d think 2002 (.249-26-71-84). However, I’m not ruling out a return to 35-90-90 levels because I really cannot explain what the hell went wrong in 2011. Maybe he ticked off a practitioner of the dark arts who put a whammy on him. I’m not going to draft Dunn as my starter at first base, but if falls out of the top-20 at first base, like he’s currently ranked at Fleaflicker, then sign up Mr. Dunn for my squad.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – First Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.

CATCHERS

2011 FIRST BASE Top-10
1 Albert Pujols
2 Joey Votto
3 Mark Teixeira
4 Miguel Cabrera
5 Prince Fielder
6 Adrian Gonzalez
7 Kevin Youkilis
8 Adam Dunn
9 Ryan Howard
10 Paul Konerko

Pujols‘ run at history, which I wrote about in On the Cusp, fell just short as he ended the year with a .299 batting average, 37 homers, 99 RBI and 105 runs scored. An impressive season for a mortal, but a disappointing effort for Pujols.

Votto wasn’t as good as he was during his MVP effort but it was pretty damn close. He posted a .324-37-113-106-16 line in 2010 and followed it up with .309-29-103-101-8 this season.

Teixeira blasted 39 homers and drove in 111 runs for the Yankees giving them the power they expected.   Unfortunately he scored “only” 90 runs, and for the second straight season he hit under .260 as he limped home to a career worst .248 mark.

Cabrera was as he always is, fantastic. I admit it, my concerns over his drinking issues were apparently unfounded. I touched on that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Fielder was second in the NL in homers (38), RBI (120) and OBP (.415) while he was third in OPS (.994). Someone is going to get awfully rich this offseason.

Gonzalez proved me half right, and half wrong. You can learn more by reading Player Profiles: 2011 Review.

Youkilis was limited all year by injury and his final line looks pretty bad (.258-17-80-68-3). Still, he was on pace to hit more than 20 homers with 100 RBI while his OBP was .373, not bad for a down season. He should be at full health next season.

Dunn fell off more than virtually any player in recent memory (Andruw Jones was close a few years back). Dunn was unquestionably the biggest failure in the game in 2011 as he hit .159 with 11 homers over 415 at-bats. I literally felt a sickness in my stomach well up writing that sentence.

Howard hit his 33 homers and had 116 RBI, but he also hit a mere .253 and scored just 81 runs. He could easily miss the start of the 2012 season as well since he ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final play of the season for the Phillies.

Konerko was strong yet again hitting .300 with 31 homers and 105 RBI. He has no speed, it’s almost surprising that he stole a base, and despite playing 149 games with a .388 OBP he scored only 69 runs for the White Sox.

Hit: Freddie Freeman #25
Freeman took a while to get going, if we remove his .225 April he hit .293 the rest of the way, an in the end he batted .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBI for the Braves. Hey, it’s first base where everyone can hit. It was hard to find a guy who really stood out past the top-15.

Bust: Dunn
U-n-b-e-l-i-e-v-a-b-l-e.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 8, 2011

(1) Jake Peavy to DL with groin issue.

(2) Adam Dunn to get a few days off as did Alex Rios in an attempt to wake both up.

(3) Knees bothering Jimmy Rollins and Mark Teixeira.

(4) Carl Pavano pitching well of late, really.

(5) Justin Masterson has no wins in eight starts despite pitching well.

(5) Jason Heyward called out by Chipper Jones.

By Ray Flowers