Draft Day Challenge, April 23

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter: @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Salvador Perez
2. Russell Martin

Perez is hitting a poor .188 the past three weeks to drop his season long mark down to .258. He faces Max Scherzer, a tough matchup, though one that he has had ample success with as he’s gone deep twice and has five hits in seven at-bats.

Martin was awful at the start of the season and people were freaking out. He’s turned that all around of late. Martin is hitting .526 the past week with a couple of homers. Things tend to even out eventually.

FIRST BASE
1. Mark Trumbo
2. Adam LaRoche

Trumbo is hitting .350 with a homer the last week, and he’s been solid all year long with a .311 average. He’s also gone 4-for-10 against Alexi Ogando whom he faces on this day.

LaRoche is a slow starter, so maybe it’s tough to trust him, but he has had some success versus Adam Wainwright in his career (.280-1-9 in 25 at-bats).

SECOND BASE
1. Ian Kinsler
2. Jose Altuve

Kinsler is expensive, but he’s worth it given the success he has had against Jason Vargas (.343-1-3 with two steals over 35 at-bats).

Altuve is white hot right now with a .455 batting average over the past two weeks. Will he be able to keep that going against Hisashi Iwakuma who has a 1.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over four starts?

THIRD BASE
1. Mark Reynolds
2. Kyle Seager

Reynolds leads baseball with 10 RBIs against left-handed pitching and he faces Jose Quintana, a lefty, from the White Sox. Reynolds has gone deep three times against lefties though he has hit, a Reynolds-like, .231.

Seager is hitting .276 thanks to hits in 11-straight games. He’s also rapped out seven hits the past three games and has two homers and four RBIs in his past two contests.

SHORTSTOP
1.Yunel Escobar
2. Jean Segura

Escobar has seven hits in 16 at-bats (.438) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Escobar also hit his second homer of the year and had two RBIs Monday night.

Segura is 0-for-3 against Clayton Richard in his career but he also leads baseball on this young season with a .563 batting average in 16 at-bats against left-handed pitching.

OUTFIELD
1. Alex Gordon
2. Matt Joyce

The matchup for Gordon looks sloppy on paper as he faces Max Scherzer. Results though say that Gordon should have a lot of success as he’s hit .389 with a homer in 18 at-bats against the righty. Gordon also enters the game hitting. .342 in April.

Joyce has gone deep twice with five hits in 11 at-bats (.455) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Wait, have I already written that?

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Wade Davis
3. Patrick Corbin
4. Carlos Villanueva

Quintana has 14 strikeouts over 13.2 shutout innings in his last two starts. He’s facing an Indians club that has hit .094 with a .172 SLG against him over 64 at-bats. Ownage perhaps?

Davis hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last two starts and he has struck out 13 batters over those 23 innings. He faces a tough Tigers lineup but he’s rolling so far in the young season and he does have a 3.42 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven career outings against the Tigers.

Corbin has allowed a total of three runs in two outings on the road this season. He faces off against the Giants in San Francisco. In three starts this season the young lefty has allowed a total of three earned runs though his 1.86 K/BB ratio isn’t exactly fantastic though in 23 innings against the Giants that number is a remarkable 15.00 (15 Ks, 1 BB).

Villanueva has allowed three runs in three starts this season leading to a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP for the Cubs. He faces the Reds in Cincinnati, a club that he has performed passably against in his career (3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 40 Ks in 49.2 IP).

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part I, Rounds 1-14

For the fifth straight year I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL.com (you can click on the link to see how everyone else in the draft evaluated their own selections). Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be your truly). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the third overall pick in the draft which was completed just wrapped up as the month of February came to a conclusion).

A little bit about the league and what to expect in the three part piece.

I’ll break down my draft, pick-by-pick. Part I will be a review of selections 1-14. In Part II I’ll review selections 15-28. Finally, in Part III, I’ll give an overview of the draft and share how my team worked out, where I missed out on players, and let you know if The Oracle made any mistakes (shockingly he made one glaring mistake).

12 teams, 28 rounds
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
9 pitchers: P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P
Bench: five spots

Round 1: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Miguel Cabrera, 3B
The most consistent hitter in the game. He lacks the speed of others taken at the top of most drafts, but he makes up for it with unmatched consistent excellence. I would never have taken Mike Trout here, so I was very pleased when this future HOFamer fell to me.

Round 2: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS
If a down year is 20/20, and that player qualifies at two positions, sign me up. HanRam has been a .250 hitter the past two years, and that’s obviously a significant issue, but his ability to contribute across the board while giving me flexibility is well worth drafting at this spot, though I was secretly pining for Dustin Pedroia who went one spot ahead of me.

Round 3: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Starlin Castro
I really wanted to take David Wright here. However, with a 3B (Cabrera) and another 3B eligible player (Hanley) already on my roster with my first two picks, I couldn’t justify locking up my corner infield spot this early with a third 3B eligible player.

Round 4: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Austin Jackson, OF
For the second time in three rounds the guy I wanted was taken one spot ahead of me (this time it was B.J. Upton who I also considered in the third round). At this point of the draft I wanted to get an athletic outfielder which I was able to accomplish.

Round 5: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shin-Soo Choo, OF
I could have gone the route of Michael Bourn here, but there seem to be players falling much later with similar skills (Pierre, Revere types). In the 5th I went with another across the board talent in Choo who should thrive hitting in Great American Ballpark.

Round 6: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Martin Prado, 3B/OF
As I continue to pile up offense, I targeted a versatile hitter who qualifies at two spots. Prado’s a nice little hitter, and I know Howard Bender wanted him badly so why not take him. A .300 season with 10/15 and 100 runs seems possible.

Round 7: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yadier Molina, C
You can make a legitimate case that my team, after seven picks, has to be looked at as a club that could hit .300. It’s not often you can say that. However, Molina was my third choice as the two players I had teed up – Hill and Bumgarner – went with the two selections before my spot came up.

Round 8: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James Shields, SP
Others might be nervous with Shields as their top arm. I’m not. He’s about as stable as they come on the hill, get’s a lot of punchouts (8.82 per nine last year), and combines that skill with an increasing ground ball rate (52 percent in ’12).

Round 9: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yovani Gallardo, SP
I was faced with a real toss up between the power arm and consistency of Gallardo, and the likely better ratios but less dominating arm that Johnny Cueto brings. Since Cueto is coming back from an injury, I went with Gallardo.

Round 10: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Nick Markakis, OF
Markakis is exactly the type of player I like to target. He’s consistently solid across the board, is a veteran, and his value is depressed since he’s coming off an injury plagued season. Many don’t know that per 162 games his 5×5 line is .295-18-85-89-9. I’ll gladly take that.

Round 11: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Trumbo, OF/1B
He was amazing in the first half, then he was awful in the second. All told he hit 32 homers with 95 RBIs while batting .268. I’ll gladly take a repeat at this point of the draft from the dual position threat.

Round 12: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dexter Fowler
Will he ever learn to hit on the road? His BABIP was league leading last year so the average might fall a tad from .300, but I think there could be a 20/20 season here.

Round 13: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Ben Revere, OF
Smart to take him with Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp still on the board? Probably not, but I’m a big fan of Revere’s speed game (turns out I was right and should have waited to draft Pierre rounds later).

Round 14: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jon Lester, SP
I believe Lester will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

I’ll continue my review in my next column by looking at selections from rounds 15-28.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Positional Eligibility Matters

The Tigers announced, through GM Dave Dombrowski, that Victor Martinez will not catch in 2013 as the Tigers plan to let Alex Avila and Brayan Pena handle the tools of ignorance. This decision has a whole bunch of fantasy implications that need to be investigated an understood, so I will use V-Mart as my primary discussion point on positional eligibility before listing a whole series of other players who may or may not be worth an extra bit of emphasis on draft day because of the positions on the field that they are, or aren’t, qualified for in the fantasy game.

(1) If V-Mart doesn’t catch in 2013 and only suits up at DH what does that do to his positional eligibility in your fantasy league? Usually we just look back to the previous season and see if the guy played 20 games at a position. If he did, then we just lock him into eligibility for that position. However, Victor didn’t play a single game last year after he injured his knee (he tore his ACL and had surgery. Current reports suggest that he should be good to go for Opening Day). Does that mean he will only be DH eligible in 2013, or does your league do what I think is the correct thing to do which is to look back at the last season the player actually appeared in the big leagues? If we take that tact and look back at 2011 we find that Martinez did appear in 26 games as a catcher and therefore should be catcher eligible in 2013. This is a vital question to answer – where does Martinez qualify in 2013? As a catching option Martinez is a potentially elite play. As a DH only player he’s merely a solid option. Huge difference in value as a result of where he qualifies.

(2) If he really isn’t going to catch, what happens in interleague play when the Tigers face an NL club? Obviously he isn’t going to play first base with Prince Fielder there. Does that mean when the Tigers are forced to play an “NL game” that Victor will merely be limited to pinch hitting duties? Does that negate the potential benefits he should derive from being a full-time DH since he won’t be able to start for stretches of time? Also, how will he respond to being out of the starting lineup for days at a time when the Tigers face those NL clubs? A few points to consider when it comes to evaluating the expected levels of production that one should expect from Martinez in 2013. Obviously, there’s a lot to think about with a guy like V-Mart beyond what should one be expecting from his bat (I would assume that he will return as a very impressive hitter, though what exactly that means is a tad uncertain. I’d be looking at his 2010 effort as my baseline, and in that season he hit .302 with 20 homers and 79 RBIs. Don’t forget that the 34 year old sat out an entire season last year, and that is significant even if many will try to minimize its importance).

Here are some other key players to think about in terms of how their positional eligibility effects their value. Remember, the standard for most leagues is 20 games played at a position the previous year.

Mike Aviles is only shortstop eligible after appearing in two games at second and one at third.

Jose Bautista will only qualify as an outfielder in 2013 after appearing in only one game at third and four at first in 2012.

Brandon Belt appeared in only four games in the outfield losing eligibility there.

Emilio Bonifacio plays all over the place and he should do the same thing for the Blue Jays in 2013. Here are his games played totals from last season: outfield (51 games), second base (15 games). So much for his second, third and shortstop eligibility from ’11.

Billy Butler appeared in only 11 games at first base in 2011 causing him to be DH only eligible in 2012. He rectified that situation by appearing in 20 games at first in 2012.

Chris Davis lost third base from his ledger (zero games), but he is still eligible at first and the outfield.

Edwin Encarnacion is only first base eligible in 2013. He suited up just one time at third base last season.

Adrian Gonzalez fell just short of qualifying in the outfield with 18 games in right field.

Mike Morse appeared in only one game at first base.

Trevor Plouffe has a nice power bat but he qualifies only at third base (95 games) heading into the season. He should be a starter in the outfield for the Twins in 2013, but he appeared in only 17 games in the outfield, four at second and one at short last season.

Martin Prado appeared in 119 games in the outfield, 25 at third, 13 at shortstop, 10 at second and four at first base.

Hanley Ramirez appeared 98 times at third and 57 times at shortstop. Don’t forget that also means that he is eligible to fill the middle and corner infield spots.

Mark Reynolds appeared in 108 games at first but only 15 at third base.

Kyle Seager qualifies at third base (138 games) but not at second (18 games, 14 starts).

Mark Trumbo may or may not qualify as a first baseman for you. He appeared in 21 games at first base last season but only 16 as a starter. Does your league use starts or appearances as the benchmark? Make sure you check it out.

Michael Young appeared in 41 games at first and 25 games at third base. He was only a second sacker 16 times.

Ben Zobrist is a money play in 2013. Not only does he produced impressive numbers at the dish, but he also qualifies at second (58 games), outfield (71 games) and, here’s the kicker, shortstop (47 games). That ability to fill three roster spots is golden and certainly bumps up his value substantially, especially in deeper leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 12, 2012

(1) Dustin Pedroia overcoming slow start with impressive play.

(2) Joe Mauer = the quiet superstar.

(3) John Axford rolling in 9th inning.

(4) Yoenis Cespedes budding fantasy superstar?

(5) Vernon Wells vs. Mark Trumbo.

(6) Brandon Belt surging but lacking pop.

(7) Jordan Pacheco to see some time at catcher.

(8) Ben Zobrist picks up SS eligibility to add to 2B and OF.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 19, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Who would you rather have for 2nd half of season… Josh Hamilton or Mark Trumbo? Hamilton is slumping badly.
– @mysports1

I got this question and thought it was a joke. It wasn’t. There followed a couple of tweets that pointed out that since June 1st that Trumbo had outproduced Hamilton. OK, well, let’s play that parsing game and see what we come up with.

April-May
Hamilton: .368-21-57-39 with a 1.184 OPS
Trumbo: .348-10-26-22 with a 1.029 OPS

June-Current
Hamilton: .207-7-21-17 with a .725 OPS
Trumbo: .269-16-39-25 with a .954 OPS

Hamilton dominated the first two months. Trumbo has dominated the last month an a half. But…

Overall
Hamilton: .300-28-78-56-6 with a .988 OPS
Trumbo: .309-26-65-47-4 with a .991 OPS

Overall Hamilton is still the better performer, though it is obviously a lot closer than most of us would have thought before looking at the numbers. Still, there is no comparison between the two when it comes to talent. Hamilton is a vastly superior talent. He’s dynamic. I’ll give Trumbo full credit for what he has done, it has surpassed everyone’s expectations, and he does qualify at first base and the outfield in all leagues adding to his versatility (maybe even at third in some leagues). Still, I honestly don’t know a single “expert” who would say they prefer Trumbo in this matchup. Not a one. If you don’t buy the talent argument then how about this one – Hamilton has shown himself to be this hitter for a while now. Trumbo? It’s pretty hard to think he can maintain a 26.3 HR/F ratio – a massive total that would have been the best in baseball last year, in 2010, in 2009… you get the point. It’s also pretty hard to take Trumbo at face value. The guy was a .275 hitter in six minor league seasons. He hit .254 last year. That .309 average isn’t supported by his history or by his 15 percent line drive rate this season.

Trumbo’s been great, and he’s performing better the past six weeks, but the odds are still heavily tilted toward Hamilton being the better performer the rest of the season.

Drop Chris Davis for Wil Myers in a keeper? I can only keep five guys, but in the round drafted, aka 24th for Myers, I’d consider it.
– @JeffSchaffer13

Davis has had a productive season for the Orioles hitting .260 with 14 homers and 41 RBIs in 77 games, putting him pace to be a .260-28-80 type of hitter. Davis has the skills to do that. However that doesn’t make him a keeper in any league that protects only five players. His production also isn’t to the level that he’s keeping your team afloat this year either (at least I hope not). Bottom line is that you could move on from him with an eye to the future if it made sense (i.e. your team could handle the loss right now).

Myers has a luminous future, a fact I pointed out last November in AFL – 2011 Review when I was able to interview Myers at the AFL Rising Stars Game. Myers has killed it all year long, at Double an Triple-A, hitting .319 with 28 homers, 76 RBIs an a 1.057 OPS in a mere 90 games. The only thing holding him back from roaming the Royals outfield right now is that they don’t have a spot for him with Lorenzo Cain being healthy (he’s joined by Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur). Perhaps the Royals will move Frenchie at the trade deadline to open up a spot for Myers. At least that would be a logical move. Regardless of what happens at the deadline, it would be a shock if Myers wasn’t in the starting lineup on Opening Day 2013. Does that make Myers a keeper in a five keeper league given his 24th round value?

A brief history lesson. Here are some of the names of some recent elite level prospects that were looked at as can’t miss options who missed in their first season.

Brandon Wood
Cameron Maybin
Travis Snider
Justin Smoak
Pedro Alvarez
Domonic Brown
Brandon Belt

I could go on, but I think you get the point. We’ve all been spoiled by the success of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. The game just isn’t that easy.

I’ve got no idea who you’re other keeper options are, but in a league that protects only five guys I’m not inclined to keep Myers for 2013, even at a 24th round value.

Need ERA/WHIP. Send Paul Konerko for C.J. Wilson? I can slide Michael Morse or Kevin Youkilis in at 1B.
– @chiloubrown

Konerko has had an excellent season with a .322/.402/.511 slash line (the average and OBP would be career bests). Still, his performance has been really rough lately. Over his last 35 games he’s gone deep just three times with 11 RBIs while his slash line has been pathetic at .244/.331/.336. What’s going on? First off I’d posit some normal regression as he was simply performing over his head early in the year. Second, he had that minor wrist procedure that knocked him out of action for a few days, and he’s been pretty awful since then. Is the wrist still bothering him? Third, let’s not forget that he’s 36 years old. I know we have been spoiled with a lot of players being good into their last 30′s, but traditionally 36 year olds slow down. I’m not saying Konerko should be viewed as a drag on any fantasy team moving forward but I’m also not exactly in love with what I’m seeing either.

Wilson had his worst effort of the year Wednesday allowing seven runs in six innings, but even so he still owns a 2.82 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP on the year. Moreover, that’s 54 starts with a 2.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP since the start of last season. Wilson continues to be one of the most effective hurlers in baseball, and there is no reason to think that he’s likely to see a major regression any time soon.

If your goal is to improve your ratios Wilson is a fine target. Since you’ve got Morse/Youkilis to also fill in at first base, go ahead and send Konerko packing.

Think Santiago Casilla is permanently out as closer or needs a breather? Seems SF will give Casilla every opportunity as they want Sergio Romo left as setup guy.
– @cwhittemore33

All I can say about this situation is that I’ve been extremely frustrated all year. As I have said, consistently since January, Romo is the best reliever the Giants have. Period. Nothing, not a single thing, that he has done this year has changed my opinion at all. In fact, Romo is one of the five best relievers in baseball. Period. Think I’m crazy? Look at the numbers.

0.66 ERA
0.73 WHIP
11.20 K/9
4.25 K/BB
.128 BAA

You hear this crap all the time about how he can’t handle lefties. What are those people talking about?

In 2012 lefties have hit .143 with a .374 OPS against Romo.
For his career lefties have hit .189 against Romo with a .483 OPS.

It’s a completely fallacious argument.

The only valid argument for keeping Romo out of the 9th is that the club doesn’t think he can work a full inning every other day because of an often tender elbow.

Given the totality of the data, Romo should have been closing the moment that Brian Wilson went down with injury. Period. Instead the Giants went with an inferior pitcher in Casilla. For the majority of the first half Casilla was admittedly impressive, he converted 19 of his first 20 save chances, but he’s turned into a disaster of epic proportions of late blowing five of eight save chances as his ERA has gone up two full runs over his last 10 outings. Hopefully the Giants will finally do the right thing and use Romo in the 9th inning, but even if they move on from Casilla, as they should, don’t be surprised is Jeremy Affeldt sees some 9th inning work.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: June20, 2012

(1) Troy Tulowitzki having more tests run. Is his season in doubt?

(2) Mark Trumbo mashing with the big boys. Can’t keep it up, can he?

(3) Barry Zito caving – what a shock.

(4) Should you be worried about Ryan Cook? Maybe?

(5) Aramis Ramirez, predictably, is heating up.

(6) Shaun Marcum says elbow is alright.

(7) Bullpen updates: Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz and John Axford struggling while Carlos Marmol’s arrow is going up.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June7, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you move Justin Upton for Andrew McCutchen in a keeper league?
– @sfavree

If you ask people in the fantasy game, they would have universally told you that prior to the start of this season Upton was the higher ceiling player. Not that anyone was down on McCutchen, it was just that Upton was the guy they would have wanted. So far that hasn’t even been close to being the right call.

Upton: .243-5-20-34-8
McC: .333-10-33-31-10

Small sample size? Well, how about we backtrack to the start of last season.

Upton: .278-36-109-139-29 with a .853 OPS
McC: .277-33-122-118-33 with a .855 OPS

The plot thickens.

I’ll say this.

(1) The numbers say that since the start of last season that these two players are the same player.

(2) Age isn’t a factor. Upton was born in August of 1987, McCutchen was born in October of 1986.

(3) There is no wrong answer to the question of which player is the one you want to build your squad around.

Upton is likely to be the more consistent power threat. If there is a player here who has a chance to lead the league in homers or RBIs, it’s Upton.

McCutchen is likely to be the more consistent base stealing option as the years progress, and that adds substantially to his fantasy value.

Honestly, you can flip a coin. Since I’m all about winning right now, even in a keeper league (more on that below), give me McCutchen who is performing at a higher level this season.

I need some help. Eric Hosmer for Mark Trumbo and Alfredo Aceves in 10 team keeper?
– @will_zme

Keeper leagues always fascinate me. Obviously without knowing all the details of a league it’s pretty difficult to give a 100 percent accurate answer to any such question, but in general you have to ask yourself two main questions: (1) Is the goal to win this season? (2) Are you building to win in the future? I’m of the opinion that if you can win this year, go for it. You don’t know if you’ll even be playing fantasy baseball in three years, and you certainly don’t know if you will still be playing in the same league. Plus, with injuries an the inherent uncertainty of the game, why not go for it when you have a legit shot to hoist the trophy? That said, there is a third level that must be addressed – how many players can you keep and for how long? The answer to any keeper question changes depending on whether you hold three, five, 10 or more players.

If you’re trying to win this season you have to take the duo here. Trumbo has been out of his mind thus far hitting .337 with 12 homers and 31 RBIs. The batting average is a fluke. Trumbo doesn’t hit enough line drives (19 percent) and strikes out too much (22.2 percent) to get a hit every three times he comes to the plate, and he simply won’t be able to sustain his current .387 BABIP. I’d be looking at a significant step back there. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a minor pullback in his homer rate, but he obviously has 30 homer power so an outright drought isn’t likely.

Aceves had a 10.29 ERA in April before rebounding to post a 2.89 mark in May as he converted eight of nine save chances (here’s a look at his performance over at Fleaflicker). On the season he has an impressive 9.73 K/9 mark, though that number is somehow three batters above his career rate. He’s also walking more batters per nine innings – 3.77 – than any point in his career (2.81 per nine). He’s offset some of that by generating more grounders than ever before leading to an impressive 1.81 GB/FB. He will have to deal with the return of Andrew Bailey at some point, but for now he’s a solid bet to continue to rack up saves even if his performance slips a bit.

Hosmer has hits in 9-straight games and finally appears to be putting his season back together. Hosmer still has a walk rate that is better than last season, his strikeout mark is also lower, and his line drive rate and HR/F ratios are the same as his rookie season. I keep focusing on that .222 BABIP and really think he’s been unfortunate (you can blame the defensive shift that teams are employing against him for some of that too).

I don’t think anyone is going to argue with you that Hosmer is the better keeper than Trumbo, but if you’re looking to win this season I think you should go with the Angel slugger and the Red Sox current closer.

Give Andre Ethier, get Eric Hosmer. Fair? Other team needs outfield help.
– @scotsyl

I wrote above about Hosmer and how I’m a fan of him as well as that I’m expecting him to continue to improve his production. At the same time, I don’t know why you would be offering an established high level producer in the outfield who just so happens to be leading the NL in RBIs at the moment with 46 for him? Makes no sense to me. A career .292 hitter who ironically has hit .292 each of the past two seasons, there’s no reason to expect Ethier to slow down from his current .302 batting average. His .363 OBP is also just one point off his career mark, and the nine homers he currently has put him on pace for about 25 homers, right on the pace he averaged from 2008-10. Add in the fact that you say the other team really needs outfield help – and if they do you need to be low balling them to see how desperate they are – and you’re simply giving up way too much to acquire the Royals young first baseman.

When Emilio Bonifacio returns, who ROTW at SS – Bonifacio, Dee Gordon or Jed Lowrie?
– @JohnnyHoey

Bonifacio will likely be out until the start of July following thumb surgery, so assuming this question begins right after the All-Star break…

Emilio has the advantage of qualifying at third base, shortstop and the outfield, and that versatility it a big time boost to his value. He’s also running wild under Ozzie Guillen with 21 attempt (20 successful) in 39 games. That’s obviously a pace for 80 attempts over the course of a full season, a massive number in this day and age. Given his approach at the dish that includes a career best walk rate, it’s hard to think either of the other two fellas will be able to eclipse his fantasy value if he’s truly healthy.

Gordon wants to be what Bonifacio is. Gordon is hitting .230, and that’s the highest his average has been since May 8th thanks to a five game hitting streak. When you bat that low, you better bring something else to the table. Gordon is on pace for about three homers, 35 RBI and 60 runs scored, all awful totals for a mixed league player. He’s also getting on base at just a .274 clip, and that’s embarrassing for a professional baseball player. Since he never gets on base he’s rarely running so he’s not utilizing his one fantasy asset, and without the stolen bases he’s useless (he has only two steals since May 6th).

Lowrie is the best hitter of the trio, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he is the best fantasy option. May was an impressive month for Lowrie as he had six homers, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored, but that level of production isn’t going to be sustainable for the Astros’ shortstop. A career .258 hitter, Lowrie is batting .283 thanks to the best homer rate of his career as well as the highest line drive rate he’s ever had (22.4 percent). There are seeds of growth here with Lowrie, but he’ll need to avoid two things that have always plagued him – injury and inconsistency.

I’d go with Bonifacio who gives you that versatility and the elite base stealing ability.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Daily Joust – Wk 9: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Darwin Barney (+5, $92K in DailyJoust salary)
Barney is boring. There, I said it. Still, he’s had four games in his last nine outings with at least two hits as he’s boosted his average from .259 to .275. Because he’s been getting on base a lot, he’s also scored six times in his last six games. Barney is no great shakes but he’s hit .276 over his last 707 at-bats even though he has no power (five homers) and averge speed (12 steals). More of an injury fill-in than anything else.

Mark Trumbo (+7, $120K)
It all looks amazing right now. Trumbo is hitting .331 while being on pace for 30 homers. Wanna bet he doesn’t get there? Trumbo has blown away even the most optimistic of expectations, but there are still a few things here worth noting. His 1.16 GB/FB ratio is average. His 21 percent K-rate isn’t great. His 0.34 BB/K mark isn’t worth anything. His .378 BABIP is not a sustainable pace, not with an 18 percent line drive rate. It’s just not. I’ve said/written it many times before, but the guy just isn’t a .300 hitter, even with his impressive 46 game run to start the year (the people at Fleaflicker aren’t buying it either).

Justin Smoak (+8, $118K)
Finally. After being a near automatic out for a couple of years, Smoak has finally started to hit like the guy who was drafted 11th overall in 2008. In his last nine games Smoak has peppered the seats with five balls, driven in 14 runs and scored nine times on his way to raising his OPS from .568 to .703. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves we should still note that his slash line is terrible (.283/.293/.409), as is his BB/K mark (0.33), and he continues to be completely ineffective against lefties (.214 with one homer in 56 at-bats). I’m heartened by his recent work, but he’s still got a long way to go to prove he should be in the active lineup without question the rest of the way.

Jason Vargas (+41, $277K)
Through 12 starts he has a 3.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, pretty heady work for a fella who owns a 4.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for his career. Can he sustain his performance? His K/9 mark is bad (5.74) but same as always (5.72). His 2.50 K/BB ratio isn’t awful, but it’s still just a bit above the league rate (2.34). His 0.94 GB/FB rate is slightly better than the 0.74 mark he owns for his career but still well below the league average (1.10 or so). His BABIP of .223 isn’t likely to be a sustainable pace either, not for a guy with a career .276 mark who has never finished a year under .272. This is as good as it gets with Vargas and he’s likely to slip up moving forward.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Bobby Abreu (-11, $63K)
Abreu started off his Dodgers career on fire. Predictably, things have slowed since. Oh he’s still hitting .310 with a .437 OBP in 26 games with the Dodgers, simply fantastic production from the aging vet, but he has a mere seven hits in his last 10 games during which time he has scored a mere three runs. There’s still room to go down here making Abreu nothing more than an NL-only option.

Christian Friedrich (-20, $188K)
Three wins in five starts is fine, but after dominating the Padres and Giants in his first two starts it’s gotten ugly. Over his last three outings Christian has allowed 16 runs over 16 innings. My analytical mind tells me that he’s posted an ERA of 9.00 in that time (how impressed are you – I didn’t even need my calculator). The 15 Ks in those three starts give him an impressive 32 in 29 innings, but they come at such a high price that it isn’t anywhere near worth it right now.

Alex Gordon (-21, $55K)
Hitting a mere .244, that is the highest his average has been since May 16th, Gordon has a hit in 7-straight games an in each of the last four games he has produced a double. He still has only one steal on the year, and his total of four homers is boring as all get out, but at least he has picked up the pace of late. Hitting just .219 with a .686 OPS in the leadoff spot this season (73 at-bats), Gordon really seems to like it when he is batting second in the order (.343/.425/.557 in 70 at-bats).

Jarrod Parker (-27, $181K)
Through seven starts Parker has a 2.88 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for the Athletics. Remove his awful outing against the Giants and he’s gone six starts without allowing more than two earned runs. He has been difficult as all hell to hit with a .228 BAA, but the walks are a big time concern. In four of his last five outings he’s issued at least four free passes, and sooner or later those catch up with you (his 29:21 K/BB mark is awful – 1.38). He’s a 2-start pitcher this week but matches with the Rangers and D’backs would seem to suggest that he’s not exactly someone you should roll out there without worrying about.

Michael Saunders (-8, $68K)
Yes he’s hitting only .257, and suiting up for the Mariners doesn’t exactly make you someone that anyone is rushing out to add, but have you noticed that he’s on pace to go 15/25 this year? He’s got to cut down the K’s though, he has 52 in 183 at-bats, or that .257 average of his might dip even further, especially considering that his BABIP of .331 is .062 points above his career mark. An effective, under the radar option that has holes in his game.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free cashola.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profiles: Corner Infielders

We all love Albert Pujols an Evan Longoria, but it’s just not always feasible to have a superstar at first or third base on a fantasy squad, let alone one at each position. Today I’m going to run through some guys who might not quite be top-shelf option but still qualify at first or third base for the 2012.

Chone Figgins: Looking for a corner infielder that could steal you 30 bases on the cheap? This just might be your guy. Figgins, who currently has an ADP of 291 according to MockDraftCentral.com, is going off the board 24th at the third base position. Coming off a dreadful year, Figgins figures to be heavily involved with the Mariners this year and he could easily bat out of the leadoff spot. If he does, he could end up being a nice draft day bargain.

Todd Helton: He’s having a huge spring, but he has recurring back woes an will be 39 in August. Still, he hit .302 with 14 homers and 69 RBI last season, numbers that don’t look that different from a guy like James Loney who will also be discussed below. Helton has nothing to give other than a repeat of last year, and that’s likely why people are overlooking him on draft day.

Aubrey Huff: Everyone is all excited about Brandon Belt, as they should be since the youngster has tons of talent, but Huff is being treated as an afterthought. I will admit things could go either way – Huff could get 500 at-bats or 350 – but with the way the Giants offense looks right now, I think he’ll be closer to the bigger mark. Can the Giants really hope to win if they are giving 500 at-bats to Angel Pagan and Nate Schierholtz? I don’t think so. The club also lacks thump, and while Huff isn’t a huge power bat, the club doesn’t have enough 20-homer power bats to simply overlook Aubrey. Plus, and I know it makes NO sense, it’s an even year, and he just kills it when it is (see his player card).

James Loney: Interested in getting an .285 hitting, 85 RBI bat at pick 259 in mixed leagues? If you are, Loney is your guy. You’re sitting there saying to yourself ‘Ray has lost his marbles.’ I haven’t. Did you know that Loney has hit .281 or better in five of his six seasons? You’re also aware that in three of the last four seasons that he’s also had at least 88 RBI, right? Oh you weren’t? Consider yourself informed.

Brent Morel: He may end up hitting ninth in the order, but Morel has little competition for a starting spot at the hot corner with the White Sox. He may never be any better than a guy like Danny Valencia was last season, but if you get get a .246-15-72-63-2 line from a guy being drafted around 275th overall (those were Valencia’s numbers last season), should you at least know which team he plays for?

Gaby Sanchez: He’s hit 19 homer each of the last two years while knocking in 85 and 78 runs, and he also scored 72 times each season. If Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez do what is expected, and Mike Stanton is out there impressing with the power, then the Marlins might have a pretty darn good lineup. By the way, last season Sanchez had as many homers and RBI as Eric Hosmer and scored just one run less than Michael Morse.

Ian Stewart: A potential 30 homer bat with an ADP of over 380? Sign me up for that. Stewart is dealing with a wrist issue that he will have to keep an eye on all year, and that is concern. Also concerning is Stewart’s massive K-rate of 28 percent, or more than once every four at-bats. I’m not saying Stewart will be an All-Star, and he is coming off a .156, zero homer effort in 122 at-bats, but how in the world is he being taken after Miguel Tejada, Jose Lopez and Scott Rolen? Really people?

Mark Trumbo: I must be missing something here, aren’t I? Why in the world is everyone so high on a guy who had a .291 OBP an a BB/K mark of 0.21 last season? The guy has major power, but he also has some pretty gaping holes in his game. Everyone assumes he is going to play third base full time this year. One main problem with that is that Alberto Callaspo is already in town, and he owns a solid glove (Trumbo is still trying to prove he can handle the hot corner). Callaspo also hit .288 last year and is a .281 career hitter with a .337 OBP. Those numbers aren’t great, but Trumbo doesn’t figure to reach either in 2012. For those thinking Trumbo is going to get 500 at-bats this season I would offer an  dose of reality – it’s going to be tough for him to get there.

If you’re looking to do a fantasy league this year, why not give Fleaflicker a try?

By Ray Flowers