The Fall of a Franchise

The Marlins have done this before. They’ve ripped apart a team, torn it down after having success (well not this time), to save money. They outdid themselves Tuesday night when they agreed to a deal, not yet approved by Major League Baseball, with the Blue Jays. Before I delve into the deal, here are a few of the Twitter responses by people to the deal.

#Marlins insist Grooms sculpture will not be traded for the Hard Rock Café at Rogers Centre. Sculpture is not convinced. – @jonmorosi

#Marlins opened season with a payroll of roughly $100MM. After this trade, non-arb 2013 obligations will be ~ 25MM. Historic salary dump. – @jonmorosi

#Marlins will have no $$ committed to payroll in 2014. At this moment, Dobbs and Nolasco are only players #Marlins are committed to in even 2013. – @Joelsherman1

Remember: The #Marlins do not award no-trade clauses. – @Ken_Rosenthal

Report: #Marlins sending their stadium to #BlueJays as part of the deal. – @BaseballGuys

Alright, I’m pissed off!!! Plain & Simple. -  @Giancarlo818

Here’s the deal as we currently understand it in what is the most lopsided trade potentially in the history of professional sports.

Blue Jays receive: shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio and $4 million.

Marlins receive: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino, and catcher Jeff Mathis.

TRADE REVIEW

The Blue Jays get an elite shortstop, and when healthy, a borderline elite arm on the hill. Reyes is a top-5 shortstop in terms of offense, and his defense is solid. Johnson is coming off his worst season, but that effort still included a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.76 K/9 and 2.54 K/BB. Those are still pretty solid numbers. Buehrle, for the 12th straight season, threw at least 200-innings while winning 10 or more games. Buck is a catcher with 20 homer power, though one that is far from stable at the dish given his swing and miss ways. As for Bonifacio, he was on pace to lead baseball in steals last season before he was waylaid by injury. He played 51 games in CF and 15 games at second base, this a year after he also played 36 games at third base and 67 at shortstop. Here’s a potential lineup for the Blue Jays.

1 Jose Reyes, SS
2 Emilio Bonifacio, 2B
3 Jose Bautista, RF
4 Edwin Encarnacion, DH
5 Brett Lawrie 3B
6 Adam Lind, 1B
7 Colby Rasmus, CF
8 J.P. Arencebia, C
9 Rajai Davis

Looking at that daily lineup, you have to be pretty impressed. Speed, power — the only thing they really don’t have is batting average production. Could be a lot of homers and steals though. Maicer Izturis, who signed a 3-year, $10 million deal, now becomes a very expensive super sub. There’s no way around the fact that Toronto has just massively improved their roster. At the same time, two concerns. (1) How will Johnson and Buehrle perform in the AL East? It’s not exactly an easy place to pitch. (2) The Blue Jays took on about $165-$170 million in salary in the deal.

The Marlins received Yunel Escobar, a player who needed a change of scenery. He’s a middle of the pack major league shortstop. Henderson Alvarez, who I wrote about before the season in this Player Profile, performed exactly like I expected – relatively poorly (9-14, 4.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 3.80 K/9). My review of Jeff Mathis? A strong defender behind the dish who might be the worst hitter of his generation.

In terms of on the field product the Marlins were taken about behind the woodshed, hit in the head with a stick, had their wallet stolen, their clothes stripped from their bodies and then were tied up. The offender then took their keys, went to their house, packed up their flat screen TV, their fancy refrigerator and pocketed their jewelry. They then went on line, emptied the victims bank account, and erased their identity. Not finished, they then burned the house down, ran their car into the river and and defecated on what was left of the front lawn. You get the point, right?

BASEBALL IN MIAMI

It’s over. If you are a fan of the franchise, I have to think that ended yesterday. How could it go any other direction? In addition to gutting the franchise yet again, the Marlins did a complete 180 degree turn less than a year after they plotted a new direction for their franchise. After signing all those big money deals last offseason (see Angels/Marlins Spending Like Drunken Sailors), don’t forget they already traded Heath Bell to the D’backs, they gutted their team on Tuesday. Not only have they weakened their on the field product immensely, they have also turned their nose up at their fans, flipped them off, punched them in the face, and stolen their lunch money. Remember, the Marlins just built, at a cost of nearly $640 million, a stadium of which they only paid $125 million for saddling the public with the remaining cost (the County spent roughly $376 million, which will have to be raised in taxes, while the City of Miami also chipped in $132 million). The Marlins also received an interest free loan of $35 million to help with expenses which they will have to pay back at a rate of $2.3 million a year. I’ll just say it – Jeffrey Loria is a crook. Plain and simple. Make sure you read Tim Brown’s review of the deal to get a fuller understanding of how the most greedy man in pro sports is running the Miami Marlins.

Zambrano Headed to Florida

Are you read for it? By “it” I’m referring to the combustible mix that the Marlins have in store for the 2012 season. They added the over-the-top Ozzie Guillen to manage the club, and now they’ve added the most volatile pitcher in baseball in Carlos Zambrano (for more on Zambrano and his “blow ups” see this Miami Herald piece). Get your bomb shelters stocked with canned goods Marlins’ fans.

The Deal
Cubs Receive: Chris Volstad
Marlins Receive: Carlos Zambrano and $15 million*

(*Reports have suggested that number could approach $16 million of the $18 million that Zambrano is due in 2012. Carlos also agreed to waive his $19.25 million option for 2013).

Carlos Zambrano
The Marlins dealt away a legitimate big league arm but got Zambrano back for a few million dollars thanks to the Cubs willingness to pay virtually his whole 2012 salary. Why did the Marlins make the move? “Going back to Ozzie – and I hate to put it all on him – he just feels really comfortable that the kid is going to do well here,” GM Larry Beinfest said. “Ozzie feels very confident in him. He’s confident he can help him.” Can he? It’s questionable whether anyone can help Zambrano, but what does Guillen have to work with in Big Z?

From 2003-07 Zambrano threw at least 200-innings each season. That number dipped to 188.2 in 2008, 169.1 in 2009 and then 129.2 in 2010 as his issues started to pile up. He tossed 145.2 innings in the bigs in 2011, and though he has a lot of mileage on his arm, it’s pretty shocking to think that he won’t be 31 until June. Of bigger concern than his age is the fact that he has lost about two mph off his heater the past couple of seasons. He’s still averaging 90 mph on the gun, but he’s apparently lost that little extra that made him a bigger strikeout threat.

In 2011 we saw a positive and negative trend with Zambrano . His walk rate was 3.46, a three year best, and more than half a batter better than his 4.05 career mark. Throwing strikes has always been an issue for Zambrano who quite frequently ends up having to leave a start after 5.2 innings because he’s already thrown 114 pitches. On the negative side his K/9 rate dropped all the way to 6.24, a batter an a half off his career rate. Is age, wear and tear, lost velocity or poor location to blame? Perhaps all of the above? Amazingly, despite his success over the years, Zambrano’s 1.80 K/BB mark last season was the 6th straight year he has failed to post even a mediocre 2.00 K/BB ratio.

Normally able to keep the ball in the yard fairly well, Zambrano was saddled with a 1.17 HR/9 mark last season, the first time in his career that he ever finished a season with a mark over 1.00. He allowed a career-high 37.1 fly ball rate, but that’s still a league average rate, so most of the blame deserves to be placed on his 11.3 HR/F rate that was more than his combined totals in 2009 and 2010 (5.6 and 5.2 percent). No one knows for certain, but the assumption is that the new park in Florida will slightly favor the pitcher, so the move down south should benefit Zambrano an allow him to do a better job keeping the ball in the yard.

Zambrano is likely to be healthy enough to take the ball 30 times for the Marlins, and if he does that it’s quite possible that he could replicate his 2008 numbers (14 wins, 3.91 ERA, 130 Ks, 1.29 WHIP). At the same time, he has so much to prove to the entire world that you cannot draft him to reach any of those totals. Don’t draft Zambrano on name recognition alone, but when your mixed league draft hits the rounds that equate to the legal drinking age in the United States (21 years old for those of you who started drinking at 15) you can begin to ponder adding Zambrano to your roster… that is if you can handle the risk that the pick could blow up in your face.

Chris Volstad
The massive righty, he stands 6’8”, has a nice skill set to pitch at Wrigley, and by that I mean he keeps the ball down. For his career he owns an impressive 50.4 percent ground ball rate that has led to another strong number in the GB/FB category of 1.61. However, he lacks the pitch to put away batters which means he’s much more like Derek Lowe than Felix Hernandez. I’ll give Volstad credit, he did post a career best 6.36 K/9 mark last season, a half batter above his career rate, and he also cut his walk rate to a career best level in his fourth season of 2.66 per nine. But the result was still only a slightly better than average 2.39 K/BB ratio. When he gets the ball up in the zone, like most sinker ballers, he has trouble keeping it in the yard (career 1.11 HR/9), but that rate isn’t an out of control number.

Given his lack of strikeouts Volstad is more likely to be an asset in NL-only leagues. When he’s locked in he is one tough hurler to but the barrel of the bat on, but the fact is that he hasn’t shown enough consistency to this point of his career to be anything other than a moderate innings eater at the back of a rotation.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Heath Bell

One of the best closers in the game, Heath Bell is moving from the left coast to the right coast as his days in San Diego have ended. As you are well aware at this point, Bell signed a 3-year deal to close for the Marlins worth $27 million (there is an option of $9 million for 2015). Did the Marlins solidify the 9th inning or did they add a slightly overweight, skill deteriorating righty who might be a mighty expensive setup man by the end of the contract (one thing we do know for certain is that the Marlins new uniforms are awful looking, hideous actually)?

There is no disputing the fact that Bell has been one of the best closers in baseball the last three years. Each of those seasons saw Bell produce at least 42 saves making him the only arm in the game with at least 40-saves each of the past three campaigns. Obviously, it’s hardly a surprise that his total of 132 saves leads baseball the past three years (the Giants’ Brian Wilson is second with 122 of those suckers). Bell clearly knows how to shut the door on opponents when given the chance. However, I’m a bit nervous when it comes to Bell. Why? You know I’m gonna tell you…

Bell saw his ERA rise by half a run last year to 2.44, but that doesn’t concern me. ERA’s can be artificially low or high with relievers because of their low innings pitched totals. If we take things to the next level and look at his xFIP we see a 3.67 mark, nearly half a run above his career mark and the second worst total of his career. It’s pretty easy to see why his xFIP was elevated last year – he simply didn’t pitch as well as we’re used to seeing.

(1) Bell’s K/9 rate in 2011was 7.32, a career worst, and 1.90 below his career rate. That’s a scary dip. Bell cut his BB/9 rate down to 3.02, a 4-year best actually, but still 0.01 above his career rate. The result was a K/BB of 2.43, more than half a batter below his career level and a career worst number. Concerns about here.

(2) Bell was greatly aided by Petco Park during his career as a Padres’ reliever. Bell allowed only eight homers over his last three seasons when he hurled 202.1 innings. That’s really not a sustainable rate for a guy who has posted a GB/FB ratio of about 1.25 the past three years. If a few more of those flies reach the seats, Bell’s ERA will go way up. Speaking of batted balls, Bell has seen his ground ball rate dip the past couple of years, and his 43.3 percent mark in 2011 was a career worst. This is another somewhat troubling trend.

(3) Bell had a .261 BABIP in 2011, .040 points below his career rate. Given that he also permitted a line drive rate of 21.3 percent, a 5-year high, a pretty strong case can be made that Bell’s fantasy numbers last season were better than they should have been.

None of the above signals that the end of Bell’s run of success is going to be in May of 2012. However, there are enough cracks in the armor here that you should be wary of Bell having yet another stupendous season. I’m not saying that it isn’t possible that he will go off once again, he’s been an elite option for three years now, but I will say this – the trends that we’ve seen from Bell do not paint the picture of a man who still possesses his former elite level skills. Not as young as you might think he is, Bell is already 33 years old and coming off his worst season in three years. Barring injury he’ll likely continue to rack up saves, and a top-10 type closing season still seems quite probable, but his days as an elite closer are likely much closer to the end of the story than the introduction.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mark Buehrle

It seemed like every team in baseball wanted to sign Mark Buehrle this offseason. Why was the bidding so intense for a pitcher who has never been an ace? The most obvious answer is that every team needs pitching, and there were few available options on the market this offseason. The second reason was that, despite never being that ace, Buehrle has long been one hell of an innings eating beast.

WINS
From 2001-11 Buehrle won at least 10 games each season. Only two other men are in that group – CC Sabathia and Javier Vazquez.

From 2001-11 Buehrle won a total of 157 games. Only three men have more victories – Sabathia (176), Roy Halladay (175) and Roy Oswalt (159).

INNINGS
From 2001-11 Buehrle hurled at least 200-innings each season. No other pitcher in baseball had a streak of longer than 7-straight 200 inning efforts the last 11 years (Livan Hernandez and Dan Haren each had a seven year run).

From 2001-11 Buehrle tossed 2,425.1 innings. No man in the game threw more innings (Sabathia was second at 2,364.1 innings).

Those numbers clearly point to the most obvious statement I’ll make in this piece – Buehrle is as stable an option on the hill as there is in the game.

RATIOS
Buehrle owns a career ERA of 3.83, an in the last 11 seasons he’s posted an ERA over 4.28 just one time (4.99 in 2006). He’s also had a mark in the 3′s in eight of the 11 seasons, and for his career his ERA is well below the American League average of 4.43. That’s pretty impressive.

Buehrle has a career WHIP of 1.28. Though he’s been above that mark in three of the last four seasons, he’s also posted a mark over 1.35 in only two of the past 11 seasons. The American League WHIP since 2001 is 1.38 by the way.

STRIKEOUTS
This is where things take a turn for the worse. Buehrle is a solid arm who gets outs and limits runs, but he does that by pitching to contact. Buehrle owns a 5.07 K/9 mark, a full two batters below the big league average. He also has failed to reach his career mark in any of the last three seasons. That’s just awful. As a result his raw strikeout total average for the last three seasons is 104 Ks per season. His former teammate, closer Sergio Santos, had 92 strikeouts last year.

OUTLOOK
Things don’t appear to be any different than they have been over the past decade. Buehrle will take the ball every five days and provide quality innings for the Marlins after signing that four year, $58 million deal. At the same time he is completely deficient in the strikeout department leaving his fantasy value lacking compared to his real world value. The only real concern with Buehrle would be if his arm fell off, and given all the miles on it, that’s always a possibility. But given his decade plus run of health, I’m willing to assume that he is just one of those rare hurlers, like Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine, that just never have arm problems. Maybe it’s because  he throws only throws 85 mph.

By Ray Flowers

Angels/Marlins Spending Like Drunken Sailors

I bemoan the Yankees and Red Sox all the time, and with good reason I believe. Not only does the national media seem to think that they are the only two teams in baseball, they routinely spend money like they are printing it in the basement. So far this offseason those two teams get a pass as it’s the Angels and the Marlins who are playing with Monopoly money.

The Marlins have a new stadium that cost $640 million, and for some reason that has led them to think that they are going to be able to sell it out for the next decade. Good luck with that. The fact of the matter is that the Marlins have had some great teams over the years but the fans just haven’t consistently come to the park (with so much to do in Florida, I can understand why that is the case). Will that change after the moves the team is making? It had better or this will be a disastrous situation in a few years (a cycle that they have unfortunately been through multiple times).

The Marlins fired off the first huge salvo of the the offseason when they made Jose Reyes their new shortstop. Of course, we’re now getting this back and forth from Hanley Ramirez who apparently feels disrespected that the Fish would bring in someone to play his position. Get over yourself Hanley. Reyes is a better defensive shortstop, that’s just the fact, and his addition to the lineup is a huge infusion of talent and skill. Suck it up, get back to full health, and cause some serious damage with your new running mate homie.
Cost: 6 years, $108 million

The Marlins also signed two hurlers to bolster the staff. They added Heath Bell to lock down the ninth inning on a 3-year deal with a fourth year option. They then went out and surprised everyone by adding Mark Buehrle on a four year contract when most didn’t think they were truly in on the lefty until late in the game (I will have write ups on both players in the near future in the ever popular Player Profile series). Bell is a top-10 closer, and while Buehrle has never been an elite arm, he has 11-straight seasons of 200-innings and 10 wins, and no pitcher in the game can match that feat.
Cost: Bell – 3 years, $27 million ($9 million option)
Buehrle – 4 years, $58 million

TOTAL COST: $193 million (plus $9 million option on Bell)

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

The Angels, apparently frustrated that they didn’t get to blow their wad last year on Adrian Gonzalez, Adrian Beltre or Carl Crawford, have gone totally bonkers. Not only did they grab the greatest hitter of our generation, they also added the best starting pitcher on the market for good measure.

Out of nowhere, an I’m talking something akin to the admission by Darth Vader that he was Luke Skywalker’s father, the Angels swooped in and signed Albert Pujols after everyone in the media had him going to the Marlins or Cardinals. The Angels offer was $40 or so million more than the other two teams were reportedly willing to spend. The result is that Pujols will receive the second largest contract in baseball history behind only the 10 year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees. Already 31 years old, I think it’s foolish to give Pujols a 10 year deal, but that’s what it took to obtain his services and Angels’ owner Arte Moreno would not be denied his prize this offseason.
Cost: 10 years, $250-260 million

Needing a compliment for their new toy on offense, the Angels also signed the best pitcher on the free agent market, C.J. Wilson (for my thoughts on what Wilson brings to the table, give his Player Profile a read). Given that estimates all offseason penned Wilson as a pitcher who wanted, and was likely to receive, $100 million, can it be said that the Angels actually got a bargain here? A rotation of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Wilson and Ervin Santana sounds mighty impressive and should cause plenty of AL teams to be Nervous Nancies heading into the 2012 season.
Cost: 5 years, $75 to $77.5 million

TOTAL COST: $325 to 337.5 million

Can money by a championship? We’ll find out as money is flying around this offseason with no regard to the fact that the United States economy is not exactly booming right now. Time will tell, but as we’ve seen many times in sports, throwing money around isn’t always the answer.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7th, 2011

Rumors are flying at the Winter Meetings, but there are a few deals that have actually been completed.

Huston Street was believed to have been dealt to the Padres as the club from southern California was thought to have done a great job covering up for the loss of Heath Bell to the Marlins. However, reports are now circulating that not only is the deal not complete but the Rockies are still in active negotiations with at least one other team about Street. We’ll wait an see how this plays out, but it’s a certainty that Street will be dealt as the Rockies feel confident that Rafael Betancourt can handle the 9th inning.

*UPDATE: The deal sending Street to the Padres was finally ratified. Street will serve as the closer for the Padres in 2012.

Erik Bedard is an impressive hurler when he is capable of dragging his weary bones onto the field. Last season he may have gone 5-9 but he also posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and an 8.70 K/9 mark proving how effective he could be. However, the downside is that he only made 24 starts covering 129.1 innings (his biggest innings pitched mark in four seasons). The Pirates have decided to look past the litany of injuries to sign Bedard to relatively painless 1-year deal for $4.5 million. It’s a nice signing if he can stay healthy.

Frank Francisco has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Mets with reports suggesting he will be paid about $12 million. The Mets also signed Jon Rauch to help to bolster their bullpen, but the arm to target in the fantasy game is Francisco. The projected closer in 2012, Francisco owns an electric arm but he’s struggled to stay healthy and consistent when on the mound. Still, the guy has 368 Ks in 334 career innings, and the past three years he’s brought his walk total down to the major league average (3.01 per nine). He’s got a chance to be a solid closer for the Metropolitans.

Nate McLouth signed a 1-year deal with the Pirates for a reported $1.75 million. McLouth had his greatest success as a Pirate before a couple of somewhat troubled seasons in Atlanta where his production was terrible and he struggled to stay healthy. Still just 30 years old, McLouth was a fantasy standout just a few seasons ago as he averaged 23 homers, 99 runs scored, 82 RBI and 21 steals over the 2008-09 campaigns.

The Giants and Mets made a deal that saw them exchange outfielders that have followed similar paths. The deal is this: the Giants receive Angel Pagan while the Mets pick up Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. The reliever, Ramirez, is a solid NL-only arm in the fantasy game, but this deal is all about the outfielders. In 2010 both were fantasy all-stars, but both slumped in 2011. Torres has more power than Pagan, but his OPS dropped to .643 last season as he looked lost for long stretches of time. Pagan, who hit .290 and stole 37 bags in 2010, fell to .262 with 32 steals last season. Given the dearth of athleticism in the Giants’ lockeroom Pagan figures to hit at the top of the order for the G-Men. For the Giants sake, I certainly hope they don’t think that adding Pagan and Melky Cabrera gives them enough offense to compliment their wonderful pitching.

Still Twisting

Albert Pujols is apparently leaning toward returning to St. Louis as reports suggest that the Cards and Marlins both offered him very similar contracts.

Prince Fielder is the bat that teams will focus on adding when the Pujols situation is resolved. I’ve been hearing that the Blue Jays, Mariners and Marlins (if they lose out on Pujols) might be the two most aggressive teams to add the portly slugger.

Andrew Bailey and Gio Gonzalez are said to be available, but teams will have to “overpay” the Athletics to add their services. At the moment, it looks like the market for Gonzalez is more active.

Aramis Ramirez to the Brewers is the hot rumor right now. It makes a lot of sense given that Prince Fielder will not be back and that the Brew Crew do not want to have to count on Casey McGehee rebounding in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 5th, 2011

I intended to do a video today but for some reason, likely the incessant partying I’ve been doing at bars of late, my voice decided to rebel leaving me sounding like Peter Brady of the Brady Bunch.

Jose Reyes and the Marlins have agreed to a 6-year, $106 million deal. He’ll likely bat leadoff for the Mets, an it appears almost certain that he will play shortstop for the Marlins moving Hanley Ramirez to third base. Obviously adding third base eligibility for Hanley would substantially increase his value, especially in those leagues that use middle and corner infielders. Reports are good that Hanley’s rehab with his shoulder are going well. The real issue here is will he allow his feelings to be hurt and mope because he’s being asked to switch positions, or, will he come into camp healthy and with his head on straight, ready to team with Reyes as the most dynamic top of the order duo in the game?

Albert Pujols/Prince Fielder: Everyone is waiting for these two big fish to choose a home. I find it impossible to believe that the Marlins are still in on Pujols despite what reports say (are they really going to dish out more than $275 million in contracts this offseason? Don’t forget, they have already added Heath Bell). The Cubs might offer to make Pujols the highest paid player on a yearly basis, even if they aren’t willing to give him 8-10 years like he would like. Fielder, seems like he’s just laying in the weeds waiting for his $150 million.

C.J. Wilson wants $100 million. It’s looking like he could get it too. Reports suggest that the Marlins and Angels, and two other mystery clubs, already have offers on the table for Wilson. The best hurler on the market, I broke down his prospects for 2012 in his Player Profile.

Aramis Ramirez is the best third baseman in the market, and after the two first baseman I mentioned above, he’s the best bat available on the infield. The Angels, Brewers and Phillies are all believed to have serious interest in Aramis after the 33 year old hit 26 homers with 93 RBI last season for the Cubs.

Jimmy Rollins hit 16 homers, knocked in 63 runs, scored 87 times and stole 30 bases for the Phillies proving that he is far from washed up. At 33 years of age he realizes this will be his last big contract, and he’s looking at someone to give him five years on a deal. The Phils have repeatedly stated that they will not go five years to keep him.

Rafael Furcal had an appendectomy last week. He will be fine for the start of the season, now he just needs to find a place to play. He’s seeking at least a two year deal, not an unreasonable request for the 34 year old.

Josh Willingham has nine teams interested in his services if you believe the report by Jerry Crasnick (I have no reason whatsoever to doubt the veracity of the report). Why all the interest in a guy who hit .246 with just a .332 OBP in 2011? Because the guy can power the ball. Josh hit 29 homers with 98 RBI last season and figures to have a few more years of production near that level if he can stay healthy enough to remain on the field (he’s averaged just 121 games a season the past four years).

Hiroki Kuroda wanted to remain with the Dodgers, but with the Dodgers signing Chris Capuano to a 2-year deal the belief is that the Dodgers no longer have an interest in bringing back the righty. Rumors have long circulated that is was L.A. of bust for Kuroda – meaning he was would return to Japan if the Dodgers didn’t bring him back – but teams like the Angels, Cubs and Rockies are known to have an interest.

Nate McLouth might end up back where it all started. After failing miserably in his time in Atlanta, the oft injured outfielder apparently is drawing some interest from his former team in Pittsburgh. Just 31 years old an only two seasons removed from 20 homers, 19 steals, 70 RBI and 86 runs scored, McLouth is the ideal cheap signing that could yield an excellent return on investment.

By Ray Flowers

The Day After

I’ve been doing a lot of player profiles recently, so I thought it would be nice to change things up today and return to my helter skelter ways of days past. So strap in as we fly around the majors.

Bruce Chen and the Royals have some kind of love affair. Chen was rewarded for solid work with the Royals the last few years when he was given a 2-year deal for $9 million (there are also performance based incentives that could total a million dollars for the lefty). Chen has gone 24-15 for the Royals the past two years, an impressive record given that club’s issues, but his 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP the past two years just aren’t that exciting. Toss in a poor 5.94 K/9 ratio, and another poor mark in the K/BB column (1.82), and I’m not remotely as excited about Chen as the Royals appear to be.

Freddy Garcia will make $4 million on his one year deal with the Yankees (there’s like another million in incentives in there as well). It’s a solid deal for both sides but just not something that should get you excited (Garcia is the right-handed version of Chen actually). Garcia won 12 games with a 3.62 ERA in 2011, and he could repeat those numbers in 2012, but his K/9 has been under 6.00 each of the past three years and there is just nothing, not a single thing, that points to any upside.

The Giants are going to lose two outfielders who played key roles in the teams’ World Championship run a couple of years ago (neither player was offered arbitration). Pat Burrell is likely going to have to retire because of ongoing foot woes. If he is done he’ll retire with a career OBP of .361, 292 homers and 976 RBIs. That’s a solid career to be sure, but for a guy who was drafted first overall in 1998, perhaps his career was slightly disappointing? Cody Ross was injured in 2011 and limited to 405 at-bats, and his productivity when on the field was less than inspiring as he hit 14 homers with 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a mere .730 OPS. Someone might give him a chance to start, but he’s best served as a strong fourth outfielder.

According to reports, David Ortiz could get up to $16 million if he goes to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wants at least a two year deal so he’s unlikely to accept arbitration, but $16 million for one year? I know Ortiz had a great year hitting .309 with 29 homers, 96 RBI and an OPS of .952, but he’s 36 years old and lost his glove years ago. I wouldn’t pay him that much.

Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes will get theirs, but it’s not surprising that the market for both is slowly developing since both want huge money deals. Bank on this though. All those rumors about the Marlins signing all the big ticket free agents, such as these two, is sheer poppycock. I think it’s all a shell game to make the fans think they’re trying harder than they really are down in Florida.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration by the Cubs but he really wants to sign a multi-year deal. Pena owns a career .239 batting average, and the last three years he hasn’t hit even .228 a single time. He does keep pounding the ball though. The last five years Pena has hit at least 28 homers with 80 RBI each season. Can’t argue with that though his pathetic average will cause that check to be smaller than he had hoped for.

Dan Wheeler was offered arbitration from the Red Sox. Wheeler posted a 4.38 ERA, but as usual, his performance was pretty darn solid. Wheeler walked only eight batters all year leading to a 1.46 BB/9 mark that led to a superb 4.88 K/BB ratio, the second time in two years that he’s posted a mark over 4.75. He’s nowhere near elite, but he’s one valuable bullpen arm.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September17, 2011

(1) Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens both out for the first round of the playoffs if the Braves make it?

(2) Hanley Ramirez has shoulder surgery.

(3) Joe Mauer done for the year. Is Justin Morneau to follow?

(4) Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in danger of being shut down?

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers