Around the Horn: Offseason Moves

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Mariano Rivera wants two years from the Yankees – and they will be more than happy to give him that on his next contract offer. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, wants at least four with some reports hinting that he would actually prefer five or six years. Seems like the Yankees aren’t buying as they are set to officially offer him a 3-year, $45 million deal. Given that Jeter’s defense at short is sliding, that he is 36 years old, and that he is coming off the worst full season of his career (.270-10-67-111-18), it’s more than a fair offer. At the same time Jeter is Mr. Yankee, and if he were to bolt the team the revolt from the fans would be a P.R. nightmare. Look for the two sides to eventually settle on a four year deal – Jeter isn’t going anywhere – even if he isn’t the player he was just a couple of seasons ago.

Magglio Ordonez is apparently fully recovered from ankle surgery and he is ready to start looking for a place to ply his wares in 2011. His agent is Scott Boras, so you can count out small market clubs since Boras has probably put together a presentation saying that Ordonez is a better right-handed hitter than Albert Pujols. I will say this for Ordonez, he rebounded in 2010 after a terrible 2009 effort that saw him hit only nine homers with 50 RBI in 131 games. Limited because of injury to 84 games in 2010, he socked 12 homers, had 59 RBI, scored 56 times and hit .303 for the Tigers. Also, let me give Mags some props. In 10 of the last 12 years he has hit .300, and in each of his last eight seasons of more than 500 at-bats he has knocked in at least 99 runs. He is no Albert Pujols, but he is still a darn effective big league hitter.

Less than a week away from Thanksgiving, an I’ve already started to salivate over the thought of mashed potatoes and yams with marshmallows. Time to do a few extra sit-ups to make sure I can gorge next week.

Jonathan Papelbon is arbitration eligible, and it appears that after making $9.35 million last year that he will be asked for something like $11.5 million for the coming campaign. Would the Red Sox simply non-tender Papelbon and allow the 9th inning to be taken over by Bard? After all, Bard made a mere $416,000 last year and still isn’t eligible for arbitration. It seems unlikely, honestly I can’t envision it happening, but it’s doesn’t appear to be crazy when you compare the 2010 performance of the two righty relievers to one another.

Papelbon:1.27 WHIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, 0.94 HR/9, 0.87 GB/FB, 3.51 FIP
D. Bard: 1.00 WHIP, 9.16 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.72 HR/9, 1.23 GB/FB, 3.37 FIP

Pretty darn close isn’t it? It’s also a concern that Papelbon posted the worst BB/9 mark of his last five seasons (3.76), and also his worst K/BB (almost a batter and a half below his career mark of 4.02). Papelbon also allowed a five year worst in HR/9, WHIP and ERA (it was 3.90, more than a run an a half above his career 2.22 mark). That’s a lot of indicators going in the wrong direction to be giving a guy a raise to over $11 million.

Dan Uggla appears to be happy with the Braves, an as expected, he also seems interested in staying with the club for a while. Uggla said that he wants what is “fair” in a contract offer, but that he isn’t going to try and become the highest paid player of all-time or anything like that. “A lot of people know that this is the closest big league team to my home [in Tennessee], and it creates an incredible opportunity for my family and friends to be able to come down and watch on a more consistent basis,” Uggla said. For my thoughts on Uggla and the great move the Braves made to get him make sure you give Who is the AL Cy Young a read.

By Ray Flowers

Marlins Blow it with Uggla

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I have to admit that I’m pretty confused by this deal. Maybe I’m underating defensive acumen, but to me the NL East deal between the Marlins and Braves on Tuesday appears to be a slame dunk win for the perenial contending Braves.

The Deal:
Braves receive: 2B Dan Uggla
Marlins receive: INF Omar Infante and RP Mike Dunn
.

First off, it’s very, very odd that the two divisional opponents would pull off a deal of this magnitude with one another..

Second, it should be pointed out that Uggla has one more year of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent after the 2011 season. Clearly, the Braves believe they will be able to sign him long-term (reportedly the Marlins offered 4-years and $48 million, to which Uggla asked for 5-years, and $71 million). The Braves are certainly putitng themselves in a slightly precarious position do to the uncertainty surrounding Uggla’s future, but they clearly anticipate their winning atmopshere, not to mention new manager Fredi Gonzalez, who worked with Uggla in Florida, to help them to sway Uggla into staying for a while in Atlanta.

Now to the players.

Omar Infante was an All-Star in 2010 as he had the best season of his career as he hit .321. However, he has little power, he hit only eight homers and 15 doubles in 471 at-bats, and he rarely walked leading to a solid but far from great .359 OBP considering how high is average was. He also has stolen all of nine bases the past three years, and his career slash line is league average at .274/.319/.395. He helps out all over the field (65 games at 2B, 29 at 3B, 19 at SS, 21 at OF), but he has little shot to repeat his effort from last season which would, idealy, leave him as a super sub on a good team, not an everyday starter as the Marlins are planning on him being.

Dunn has impressive stuff that includes a fastball that resides at 95 mph and a power 86 mph slider. He’s used those pitches to great effect with 32 Ks in 23 big league innings (he also posted 64 Ks in 47.1 innings at Triple-A in ’10). However, Dunn has also walked 22 batters in those 23 big league innings, and his BB/9 number at Triple-A was 4.75 per nine innings last year — and that was a 3-year best. Exactly. Tons of stuff but little consistency so far.

As for Uggla, all he has done is have the best 5-year run to start his career of any second basemen who has ever played the game. Moreover, it can be argued rather easily that he is working on the greatest 5-year power run in the annals of baseball for a second basemen. Uggla has produced 5-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 88 RBI and 84 runs scored, and that is the longest such streak – ever (no other second basemen has done it more than twice in a row). Actually, Uggla is one of only four players at any position who is working on a 5-year streak of 27-88-84, and the others are Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixieria. That’s right, Uggla is a consistnetly effective offensive weapon. I don’t really care that he is a K machine – at least 149 in each of the past four years – or if he owns a mere .263 career batting average, or if he really can’t play second base. The man can mash, and that is what the Braves will hang their hats on – a middle of the order threat who, at 31 years of age, seems a near lock for 25 homers, 90 RBI and 85 runs scored. Oh yeah, he has also missed a grand total of 34 games in five seasons.

This deal is a slam dunk win for the Braves if they can sign Uggla to a contract extension.

One other thing. Check your leagues games played requirements. I mention this because Martin Prado looks likely to move to the outfield. That means Prado could concievably qualify at second third and outfield in 2011. However, if he will only qualify at outfield if that is the only position he will actually play in 2011, make sure you realize that there isn’t much value to a .300-12-70 line from an outfielder if he only steals five bases.

For another view of the deal make sure to read Jason Collette’s Fishy Deals.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 21, 2010

(1) Edwin Encarnacion was demoted then designated for assignment by Blue Jays.

(2) Ryan Franklin will likely retire after the 2011 season.

(3) David DeJesus is on fire in June, and he’s also on the trade market.

(4) Mariano Rivera has retired 21-straight batters. He has lost nothing with age.

(5) The Yankees will skip the next turn in rotation for Phil Hughes.

(6) Rookie update – Carlos Santana hitting .393 in nine games. Mike Stanton hitting .233. Stephen Strasburg sets record with 32 Ks in first three starts.

(7) David Aardsma might be on the trade block, and if he is, many teams will be interested.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 4, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes visits doctor, but still healthy. Turns out it had nothing to do with his hamstring.

(2) Hank Blalock deciding between Rays and Marlins. Neither is offering full-time role.

(3) David Aardsma tweaks groin. Not a major issue, but brings up how useful Brandon League might end up being.

(4) Ike Davis Mets’ first basemen of future. Can Daniel Murphy hold him off in the present?

(5) Max Scherzer struggles for Tigers in first outing.

(6) Brandon Webb frustrated with speed of comeback from shoulder surgery. No setbacks reported but he feels like he has “stagnated” in the process.

Here are some links to a few of my most recent pieces at Fanball.com which are free to view.

Crawford vs. Ellsbury.

Average Bases Allowed – Starters.

Average Bases Allowed – Relievers.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb 24, 2010

(1) Russell Branyan to start at 1B for Indians sending Matt LaPorta to left field and Michael Brantley to Triple-A.

(2) Cliff Lee throws for first time since minor foot surgery.

(3) Astros to have 9th inning competition between Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom. You can read my thoughts in Breaking Down: Lyon/Lindstrom.

(4) Josh Hamilton injures shoulder.

(5) Livan Hernandez signs with Nationals for $900,000 plus incentives.

(6) Hank Blalock to Marlins/Rays as left-handed power bat off bench?

(7) Chad Qualls undervalued on draft day with an ADP of over 200.

(8) Olympic anguish with ice hockey being taped delayed. You can witness my frustration at USA Olympic Hockey Delay.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.16, 2010

(1) Chien-Ming Wang signs with Nationals: 1-year, $2 million ($3M in incentives).

(2) Chase Utley getting faster on the bases?

(3) Russell Branyan to Indians?

(4) Johnny Damon still talking with Tigers.

(5) Geovany Soto loses 40 lbs., stops junk food.

(6) Jose Reyes back at practice, looks good.

(7) Cody Ross wins arbitration case with Marlins, will make $4.45 million in 2010.

By Ray Flowers