Around the Horn: September 18, 2012

(1) Gordon Beckham hot in September. Sign of things to come?

(2) Rob Brantly streaking for Marlins at the dish.

(3) Chase Utley to play 3B for Phillies?

(4) Cliff Lee streaking for Phillies.

(5) Martin Prado scorching with 17 hits in 10 games.

(6) Nate McLouth savior in Baltimore even if no one is noticing (see Fleaflicker)?

(7) Kevin Correia getting it done.

(8) Ike Davis to be dealt by Mets?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun (and don’t think I’m not going to this weekend given that I will be in The Vegas. That’s right, The Oracle in Vegas… only good things can happen given that setup, right?). Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

CONTEST

At BaseballGuys.com we have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday July 27th starting at 7pm EST which is FREE. That’s right it costs nothing, to enter. Here are the details:

- Create your team with a $1 million dollar salary cap: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

Follow these 2 steps to play now:

1. CLICK HERE to register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest

2.  Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition.

Remember, it’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs. Oh, I almost forgot to mention you can get a 40% deposit bonus up to $400,refer a friend and both get $20.

**Must have less than 1 MLB win on DailyJoust to compete in contest.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: Hey, it may not make one iota of sense, but Ethier absolutely obliterates pitches from Cain. In 51 career matchups Ethier has produced 22 hits and four walks. The result is a .468 batting average and .491 OBP against the Giants’ ace. James Loney is also 14-for-41 against Cain (.341).

Martin Prado vs. Cole Hamels: Brian McCann has 12 RBIs in 51 at-bats again Hamels but the real star of this show is Prado who has produced 15 hits in 45 career ABs (.333) against the newly minted gazillionare of the Phillies.

B.J. Upton vs. Dan Haren: Eleven Ks in 26 at-bats for Upon in this matchup. So why on Earth am I mentioning Upton as a solid play? In the other 15 at-bats Upton has ripped nine hits including four homers. Add it all up and B.J. has hit .346 with four homers an a 1.192 OPS against Haren.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Lance Lynn vs. Cubs: Lynn has allowed the Cubs to hit .222 with a .617 OPS against him in his young career as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 21.1 innings pitched. Given that he’s allowed just one earned runs in his last three starts overall, this would seem like a pretty fair matchup.

Josh Tomlin vs. Twins: Looking for a sneaky play for Friday? Though current Twins batters have hit a healthy .288 off Tomlin in 73 at-bats, they’ve also managed a mere .297 OBP and .653 OBP as they’ve only taken him deep once.

Carlos Villanueva vs. Tigers: Over his last 10 outings (only four starts), Carlos has 38 Ks and just 15 walks in 34.2 innings leading to a 1.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also had success against the Tigers in his career with a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 5.00 K/BB ratio over 17 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Carl Crawford vs. CC Sabathia: These two have faced off 69 times with Crawford emerging with 22 hits leading to a .319 average. After a tremendous start in his return to action Crawford has slowed though producing only one hit in 18 at-bats before game action Friday.

Buster Posey vs. Chad Billingsley: The Dodgers’ righty was impressive in his first game back from the DL (1 ER in 6 IP vs. STL), but this is one matchup he has a ton of trouble with. Posey has 11 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .478 average (Nate Schierholtz has hit .450 in 20 ABs against Chad). Posey, in case you’ve missed it, is hitting .465 over his last 11 games for the Giants as well.

Matt Kemp vs. Barry Zito: Just seeing this matchup has to make you think that Kemp is going to go off. When you look at the numbers you should be comforted by the fact that your initial thought is exactly right. In 49 career at bats Kemp has ripped off 22 hits (.449) and he’s also taken Zito deep twice with eight walks leading to a .526 OBP.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bruce Chen vs. Mariners: This one is a shot in the dark since he’s pitched so poorly of late including a four runs, two homer effort against the Mariners back in July 18th. Chen has a .200/.209/.323 line in the 65 at-bats against the current Mariners. He’s also always had success against the club from the Pacific Northwest with a 4-0 record, 3.10 ERA and1.16 WHIP in 12 career matchups.

Bartolo Colon vs. Orioles: Current Orioles hitters are batting .243 with two homers and five RBIs in 144 career at-bats off Colon. The hefty righty of the A’s has allowed eight runs in his last two starts, but for the month of July he’s still sporting a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so he’s been very steady overall.

CC Sabathia vs. Red Sox: In 315 career at-bats the Red Sox batters have hit .248 against Sabathia. You’ll remember I mentioned Crawford killing it against CC above. Remove Crawford’s work against Sabathia and the rest of the Sox have hit .228 against the massive lefty.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Derek Jeter: When a guy has a .421 batting average against a pitcher as Jeter does against Bruce Chen, you take notice. When it comes over 38 at-bats you should pay even closer attention. When that batter is hitting .404, leading the AL in batting average, you have yourself a must start.

Carlos Lee: He seems to be over his ankle issue, and he had two hits Tuesday in his last game played. Friday he takes on Kyle Lohse, a pitcher who is on quite the roll this year (4-0, 1.62 ERA, 0.84 WHIP), but one who he has consistently handled in his career. Lee has a substantial 70 at-bats against Lohse, and the results have been mighty impressive as they include five homers, nine RBI, a .300 average an a .965 OPS.

Mark Teixeira: Killing Bruce Chen, besides sounding like a movie title for a Kung Fu epic, could also be the title of Mark Teixeira’s outings against Chen in his career. In 19 at-bats Tex is batting .474 with, get this, a 2.003 OPS. Tex also has six homers and 13 RBI in one of the most impressive batting lines you will ever see for a batter against a pitcher.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Josh Johnson: When the competition is the Padres, opposing pitchers are always worth taking a look at. Over his last two starts Johnson has racked up 17 Ks in just 12 innings, and though his ratios this season leave a lot to be desired (5.34 ERA, 1.74 WHIP), the good news is that (a) he is healthy and (b) he’s facing the Padres in San Diego. In six career starts against the Padres Johnson is just 1-2 but he has 31 Ks in 29.2 innings while posting a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Batters that are currently on the Padres have hit .146 against Johnson.

Jon Lester: Are you looking for a lock? OK, there is no lock in the real world, but this is as good as it could possibly get. Lester not only has a 2.36 ERA an a 1.26 WHIP against the Orioles, but the lefty from Boston is also 14-0 against the club from Baltimore. Wow is right.

Wade Miley: The NL Rookie Pitcher of the Month going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP as he held batters to a microscopic .133 batting average against. He faces a Mets team that has scored only 95 runs, tied for 9th in the NL in runs scored.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Mark Kotsay: This is the type of play for those of you who want to load up on a ton of expensive options on your club leaving you scant money for your final player. Kotsay isn’t a lock to start, but I bet you when the coaching staff of the Padres realizes that he has produced 10 hits and eight RBI against Mark Buehrle in 23 at-bats (.435 average) they will be certain to have Kotsay in their starting lineup.

Joe Mauer: Normally when a guy is facing Felix Hernandez you are very interested in running and hiding which must be how Justin Morneau (.138) and Denard Span (.067) feel. However, one man in baseball actually relishes the matchup and that is Mauer. In an almost incomprehensible run of excellence, Mauer has 13 hits in 26 at-bats against the righty which obviously results in a .500 average. Not just hitting singles either, Mauer has two homers and four doubles amongst his 13 hits.

Martin Prado: It only seems like everyone in baseball has 25 at-bats against Jamie Moyer. Well, Prado is one of those fellas with exactly 25 at-bats, and he’s used them to produce 10 hits leading to a .400 average. He’s also powered three balls into the seats leading to a 1.263 OPS and six RBI. Pretty solid work from this professional hitter wouldn’t you say?

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Chris Capuano: He faces the Cubs, a team that has produced seven hits in 31 at-bats against him amongst the current squad (.226/.273/.484). Capuano is also 8-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP against the Cubs in his career and he’s allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts this season as he’s lowered his yearly ERA down to 2.73.

James McDonald: Over his last three outings James has allowed five runs in 18.2 innings (2.41 ERA) while striking out 20 batters in 18.2 innings. Clearly he’s on a roll right now. Now he will face a Reds team that he is 3-1 against in his career with a 3.06 ERA. Current Reds hitters have also hit only .269 with a .717 OPS and just two homers in 93 at-bats.

Clayton Richard: All you need to know about Richard is whether he is starting at home or on the road. If it’s in San Diego, Richard is never a bad play. In two starts at home this year he is 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.83 WHIP an in his career at Petco Park he is 12-12 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 163 Ks in 202 innings. The Marlins better be wearing their hitting shoes.

CONTESTS

We have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday May 5th starting at 7pm EST.

Here are the details:

- Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

- It’s**FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

Follow these 2 steps to play now:

1. To register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest click on this link.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano: I feel a bit stupid suggesting you should starts Cano, it’s not like there is anyone out there who doesn’t know he’s a HOF bound second sacker, but in 20 career at-bats against the Red Sox Clay Buchholz he’s racked up nine hits for a .450 batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: I’m not a huge fan, and think the Reds made a mistake not just going with Chris Heisey, but there is no denying the track record of Ludwick against the Cubs as he’s hit .279 with 10 homers, 37 RBI an a .843 OPS in 201 at-bats. He’s been even more dominant at Wrigley hitting .349 with seven homers an a 1.041 OPS in 109 at-bats there.

Ryan Raburn: He has only 12 at-bats against Matt Harrison, but he’s been a superstar in the matchup batting .667 with two bombs, seven RBIs an a 2.026, yes that’s a two, OPS. As you read about, you did read Quick Starting Pitchers right?, I’m not a huge fan of Harrison either.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ted Lilly: In his first outing he allowed one unearned run to the Padres. He faces Houston Friday, a team he has thoroughly dominated in his career: Lilly is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.27 K/9 and a 3.50 K/BB. Toss in the fact that the Astros aren’t very good, and this is a dream matchup on paper.

And for the second straight weeks, two oldies but goodies…

Carlos Zambrano: After allowing one run to the Astros in his last outing, why not go to the well again? Big Z has a matchup with the Nats next, and he’s had a lot of success against that organization in his career with an 8-3 record, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 73 Ks in 78 career innings.

Barry Zito: Through 16 innings Zito has allowed 11 base runners (0.69 WHIP), and just two earned runs (1.13 ERA). We all know the dream will end soon, but it may last another start. Zito has a 3.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, with 30 Ks in 35.1 innings, against his opponent Friday – the Mets.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Travis Hafner: We’re only talking 12 at-bats here, and that isn’t necessarily enough data to draw any sort of lasting conclusion, but Hafner has four hits, including two homers, against the Athletics’ Brandon McCarthy. Hafner has also knocked in six runners in the matchup while also garnering two walks.

Brandon Phillips: The only thing that seems likely to stop him on Saturday is his bum wheel. In 48 career at-bats against Paul Maholm he has 17 hits, good for a .354 average an a 1.034 OPS. He’s also taken the Cubs hurler deep four times leading to nine RBI. Plus and play with this gu – as long as he is in the lineup.

Martin Prado: Off to a bit of a slow start hitting .250, Prado is a .292 career hitter. He’s also raked against the D’backs in his career going 22-for-60 leading to a .367 average and 13 RBI in 17 games played. He’s also picked up a hit in seven of his last nine games while he’s driven in four runs while scoring four times in his last two contests. Joe Saunders isn’t exactly a dominating opponent either.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Leake: When a guy is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against a team (the Cubs), you had better take notice. Don’t expect a lot of strikeouts, he has just 32 in 50.2 innings against the Cubs, but he should still have an effective outing.

Brandon McCarthy: Last season he went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. This season he’s made three “home” starts and in that time he’s got a 2.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The matchup with the Indians isn’t a great one on paper given that the Indians offense has been humming along in the early going, but McCarthy is still a solid option given his success in Oakland and his 6-3 record and 1.30 WHIP against the Indians over 16 games, if he can avoid letting Travis Hafner beat him that is.

Mike Pelfrey: The Mets hurler gets to face the less than imposing offense of the Giants. That’s good news for the 6’7” righty who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the Giants in six starts. He’ll also be pitching at Citi Field, a place where he has enjoyed a lot of success (19-13, 3.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

CONTESTS

We have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday April 20th starting at 7pm EST.  Here are the details:

Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap:
C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

It’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

Follow these 2 steps to play.

1. To sign up for this, or any game with DailyJoust, simply click on the link just provided.

2. Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition.

Good luck!

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Surviving the 3B Drop-Off

 Everyone has heard that 3B is one of the scarcest positions this year so Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray break down players to grab if you have missed the elite options at the position (Ray Flowers also wrote an article about the third base position as well in Third Base, A Wasteland?).

Listen to the Audio.

Player Profile: Martin Prado

Martin Prado is one heck of a hitter. You may not believe that statement if you look at his middling 2011 numbers, but trust me, when everything is going right for this righty swinger he has the look of a guy who could put up a .300 plus batting average every year. So what happened last year? Let’s look back before we move forward.

2009: .307/.358/.464
2010: .307/.350/.459
2011: .260/.302/.385

Clearly something happened in ’11. After two virtually identical seasons Prado failed to post an OBP in 2011 that matched his batting average from the previous two seasons.

Prado has never been an overly patient batter, but things have taken a turn for the worse of late. In fact, over each of the last three years his walk rate has declined (8.3 percent, 7.2, 6.1 and 5.8). Luckily Prado doesn’t strike out much at all, and his 8.8 percent K-rate last year was a career best. He’s also posted a BB/K mark of least 0.61 in three of the past four years, and even in his “down” 2010 effort his 0.47 mark was right on the big league average. Clearly, this doesn’t explain the batting average dip he experienced last year.

Prado posted a GB/FB rate between 1.15 and 1.19 from 2007 to 2009. Then in 2010 he hit a boatload of grounders leading to a 1.59 GB/FB ratio. Honestly that isn’t the end of the world, it’s not like he’s a home run hitter, but it was a big shift. That number regressed somewhat in 2011 dropping to 1.47, but that’s deceiving since he actually had a career-high GB-rate of 51 percent. How did his GB/FB ratio drop then in 2011? Simply put, he didn’t hit anything on a line last season. Prado, who owns a career line drive rate of 18.9 percent, a mark that he reached each year from 2007-10, saw his LD-rate shrink to 14.6 percent. Given the type of hitter he is, and his track record in this category, it’s extremely odd to see such a low number. In fact, I’d say it’s nearly impossible to explain other than to say that he was pretty an unlucky fella last year, at least at some level.. Just take a look over at the BABIP column for some further detail here. Prado owns a .315 career BABIP and had posted a mark of at least .321 each year from 2007-10 before seeing a massive dip last season down to .266. Just 28 years old, it’s hard to lean on a skills decline to explain any of this so we are likely left with some combination of (a) bad luck and (b) injury induced struggles.

So what I’m saying here should be obvious – Prado should rebound in 2011. He’s simply been too consistent at the dish early in his career to think that at age 28 he’s lost it. The batting average should rebound, and with it his OBP should return to better than the league average (Prado is a career .293 hitter who hit at least .307 each year from 2008-10). If he plays everyday that would mean he’s had a shot to replicate the numbers he posted in 2010. He’s not likely to hit 20 homers, and 10 steals might be a pipe dream, but hitting .300 while scoring a bushel of runs should be well within his reach for the the 2012 season. Prado also is valued for his defensive acumen in the fantasy game that includes his ability to wear multiple hats (he played 100 games in the outfield last season and 41 at third base, a year after he also appeared in 98 games as a second baseman). Given his glove an ability to hit for a high average, he should be someone you’d willingly target on draft day 2012. Don’t draft him expecting him to exceed his 2010 effort but he would seem to be a near lock to better the middling totals he posted for the Braves in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Second Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

2011 SECOND BASE Top-10

1 Robinson Cano
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Brandon Phillips
4 Dan Uggla
5 Chase Utley
6 Ian Kinsler
7 Rickie Weeks
8 Howie Kendrick
9 Aaron Hill
10 Martin Prado

Cano hit .302, third at the position, had 28 homers, third at the position, knocked in 118 runs, first at the position, and scored 104 runs, second at the position. Yeah, he lived up to the preseason hype.

Pedroia was phenomenal for the Red Sox hitting .307 with 21 homers, 91 RBI, 102 runs and 26 stolen bases. That effort was just the sixth, ever, for a second baseman (minimum .300-20-90-100-25).

Phillips hit .300 for the first time, scored 94 runs, blasted 18 homers and knocked in 82 runs. It was a great season even if he stole just 14 bases, his lowest total since joining the Reds in 2006.

Uggla was horrible, then electric in his first season with the Braves. Add it all up and he hit a career worst .233. However, he also scored 88 runs, hit a career best 36 homers, and knocked in 82 runs. That gave him 6-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 82 RBI and 84 runs scored. Only one other second baseman in history has ever had six such seasons (Jeff Kent), and Uggla has done it 6-years in a row – every year he has been in the league (no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years).

Utley had a decent season for a late round draft pick asked to full the middle infield spot (.259-11-44-54-14), but that knee injury just killed his season, and he’s now had back-to-back seasons that are nowhere near his established level of excellence (in 2010 he went .275-16-65-75-13).

Kinsler rebounded from a down 2010 to post his second 30/30 effort in three years. He hit only .255, but he powered a career-high 32 homers and scored 121 runs, another career best.

Weeks, against my better judgment really, came in seventh at the position at the start of the year. As I pointed out numerous times, Weeks had three season of less than 100 games, and three over 100 games coming into the year. He kind of split the difference appearing in 118 games, but the lack of times on the field limited his contributions to being a really good season, but not a great one (.269-20-49-77-9).

Kendrick saved me from a lot of flack. I ranked him pretty high this spring, and everyone called me out for it. In the end, he produced one of the better 5×5 lines at the position going .285-18-63-86-14. Do you know how many second base eligible players hit .285 with 18 homers, 63 RBI, 86 runs and 14 steals? The answer is three – Pedroia, Phillips and Kendrick.

Hill was a massive disappointment yet again, and I’m really at a loss as to why. He hit .246 with eight homers, 61 RBI, and 61 runs scored. Remember, this is a guy who averaged 31 homers a season in 2009-10. He somewhat saved his season by swiping 21 bases, nearly halfway to his career mark of 44 thefts.

Prado was a disaster in 2011. He hit 13 homers with 57 RBI which was about as expected, but he scored only 66 runs and even worse, after hitting .307 in back-to-back seasons, batted just .260. You can, at least in part, blame his BABIP which was .266, well below his career rate of .315 (his line drive rate was also a career worst at 14.6 percent, this after posting at least a 19.8 percent mark from 2008-2010).

Hit: Howie Kendrick #8
Bust: Hill #9

By Ray Flowers

Recent Disappointments

Over the course of the season, every player rides the wave of highs and lows. Today, I’ll high-light some of those players who are barely keeping their heads above the rising tide right now.

Marlon Byrd is batting .226 over his last 93 at-bats with just a single homer as he continues to have one of the most unique seasons in baseball this year. The recent slump has dropped Byrd’s average down down to a still respectable .284, but it’s his run production that is so fascinating. Byrd has a mere 28 RBI in 387 at-bats this season, a pace that would equate to 40 RBI over 550 at-bats. If that sounds awful it is, but it’s even more distressing when you realize that Byrd has spent 30 percent of his season batting third for the Cubs and another 34 percent batting fifth. How is it possible to spend 64 percent of your seasonal at-bats in the third and fifth holes in the lineup and still be on a pace for mere 40 RBI in 550 at-bats? That’s just shocking.

Asdrubal Cabrera has had a remarkable season. It doesn’t look like he is going to get to 20/20, he has 16 steals and last stole a base back on August 13th (yikes), but still, it’s been a rather remarkable season. Coming into the year he had hit 18 homers. He has 22 this season. He came into the year with career bests of 68 RBI and 81 runs. He has 82 RBI and is just two runs off that career best mark with three weeks left in the regular season. If you’ve have Cabrera on your roster all season long you cannot be upset at his performance, not in the least. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t be disappointed by his work over the past month. Cabrera is hitting a sickly .185 over his last 95 at-bats, and though he has knocked in 16 runs, the guy has scored only five times. He isn’t producing hits, isn’t scoring runs, and has stopped stealing bases. Do you dare go in another direction for the final three weeks of the regular season?

Chris Davis has long been my white whale. I look at the prodigious power and his outright domination of Triple-A (.340-38-146 over his last 591 at-bats), not to mention his previous success in the big leagues (38 homers, 114 RBI in his first 686 big league at-bats), and think this guy is a potential 30 homer bat. He still might be that, but he’s looking an awful lot like Carlos Pena with those 21 Ks in 50 at-bats with the Orioles. I think it might be time for me to face facts. Davis might just be a AAAA player (too good for the minors but not good enough to have success in the big leagues).

Adam Lind will be shut down for a few days with a wrist issue. He should have been left out of your fantasy lineup for a long while however. Over the last month Lind has hit five homers while knocking in 18 runs so you might be thinking ‘what the hell are you talking about Ray?’ You wanna know what I’m talking about? How about that .178 average and .575 OPS over the past month. In fact, it’s even worse than that as he has hit .186 with a .562 OPS over his last 46 games. That’s a high price to pay for a few homers.

Martin Prado just cannot get it going. He’s hitting, if you can call it that, .181 with no homers and six runs scored over his last 94 at-bats.

Pablo Sandoval is hitting a mere .247 over his last 81 at-bats to drop his season long average to .297. That’s pretty impressive given his failures last season (.268), and 18 homers in just 371 at-bats is a pretty solid number as well, but he needs to start rapping out hits to help out your fantasy squad down the stretch. OK, the truth is I’m just down on the Giants and not necessarily Sandoval. Where did it all go wrong for the club? It all went wrong when the front office thought the club had enough offense to compete. What a waste of a pitching staff.

Chris Young is hitting, sit down if you missed it, .147 over 156 at-bats since the All-Star break. He has a sprained ligament in his thumb that is the main culprit for the downturn in his production. At this point it’s almost impossible to suggest leaving him in your starting lineup unless you are in a deep NL-only league.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 16, 2011

Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I get questions every day with people asking me to give my sage advice. Here are my answers to some of those queries.

I’m losing ground in saves. I have Brett Lawrie and Martin Prado for my last Util. spot. Would you trade either for Kevin Gregg?
– @we3kings00

One word – no.

Brett Lawrie is killing it. The uber prospect has hit .343 with three homers, eight RBI and a 1.121 OPS. Given the hype that he entered the league with after similarly crushing Triple-A pitchers (.353-18-61-64-13 in 69 games), his value has to be sky-high right now. He won’t keep up the average, that .375 BABIP is pretty darn high, and he’s hitting too many fly balls (50 percent) while converting to large a percentage of them for homers (23.1 percent). Still, this amazing start hints at the talent that Lawrie does possess and explains why everyone was falling all over themselves look to add him to their squad this year.

Martin Prado qualifies at third base in outfield in all leagues, and though he hasn’t played second this season, he appeared in 98 games there last year so he should be good to go there as well. As we get deeper into the season injuries are always an issue, as is potential playing time loss for some veterans to youngsters. That gives a guy like Prado, who qualifies at three spots, even more value because he can fill in all over the field. A career .300 hitter, Prado is at .274. I would expect that number to rise a bit. The reason is three fold. First, his BB.K rate of 0.70 is better than his career 0.58 rate thanks to a career low K-rate. Second, though his GB/FB ratio is 1.48, right on his 1.38 career mark, he’s managed a line drive rate of 14.7 percent. A career 19.3 producer in that category, he’s posted at least an 18.9 percent mark the last four years. Third, his BABIP is just .278. Now that isn’t surprising given his line drive rate, but again it is out of the norm for a guy who owns a .322 mark in his career. Like I said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit .300 from here on out because those numbers will eventually normalize (hopefully it will happen before the season ends).

Let’s break down the save. A 30 save performer averages five saves a month (the season is six months long). Therefore, it should be relatively easy to determine your chances of moving up, or moving down by using that as a baseline. Gregg has 17 saves likely meaning he will fall short of that 30 level. Not just that, he might be the worst full time closer in the American League. That’s not hyperbole either. Amongst AL hurlers with at least 15 saves he is last in WHIP (1.57) and second to the bottom in ERA at 4.11 (Matt Capps is last at 4.38). Gregg also leads the group with 30 walks leading to a simply putrid K/BB ratio of 1.30. That’s just pathetic. He’s also pitching poorly of late with a 6.17 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 1.22 K/BB ratio over his last 13 outings. I want nothing to do with him.

If you’re dealing either of your two hitters you should be aiming much higher than the bespectacled one from Baltimore.

Jason Kipnis, Mike Carp, or Delmon Young for power ROTW?
– @KenCaeti

Kipnis has certainly started off his career with the proverbial bang. He’s gone deep six times in 68 at-bats, a pace that would net him 44 homers over 500 at-bats. Considering that he hit all of 32 homers over his first 1,050 professional at-bats… do I need to even finish that sentence? It’s early so it’s tough to draw any conclusions, but Kipnis is going to have to cut his 29 percent K-rate quickly or that average (.279) could head south. With little hope of being a base stealing asset, Kipnis is likely to settle in as a moderate mixed play option the rest of the way at second base unless he can somehow sustain his unsustainable homer pace (look no further than his 38 percent HR/F ratio for a reason that he has no chance to keep this up).

Carp is totally out of control, an I mean totally. A .200 hitter his first 15 games in the majors this season, Carp has morphed into Adrian Gonzalez since the All-Star break. In 24 games he is batting .371, has six homers, has knocked in 26 runners and has posted a 1.041 OPS.  The question is, how long will it be before he realizes that he isn’t Adrian Gonzalez? His 19 percent HR/F ratio is a bit elevated, and with less than 34 percent of his batted balls ending up in the air, it would be a stretch to expect the power to continue at this rate, especially given his home park (still, he has flashed 30 homer power in the minors, so there is a reasonable expectation that the power will continue). More concerning is the 30 percent line drive rate and .411 BABIP mark. Ty Cobb couldn’t match that.

All of a sudden everyone wants to know about Young with his surprising deal to the Tigers. He should see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, and the move out of Minnesota should help as well since that’s a tough park to hit in. Still, he’s been a huge disappointment this season. Oddly though, he’s exactly matched his .312 BABIP from last season though he’s lost .029 points in batting average (.269), and his 0.32 BB/K mark is only 0.03 off of last year. Also, his 18.4 percent line drive rate is two tenths off his career norm, and his 1.31 GB/FB ratio is pretty close to his 1.44 career mark. What I’m saying is that he would appear to have a decent shot to improve his batting average the rest of the way.

So who to add? Young is the most accomplished hitter, but he’s no power threat – at all. Kipnis has been the best power bat of the trio of late, but there is simply no way he can sustain his pace. Therefore, if your goal is to add power to your lineup, I’d suggest adding Carp. Heaven help us.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Ivan Nova for rest of season?
– @tonyistheone

Sanchez has had a fine season and produced a great return on your investment. However, he’s performed poorly of late allowing at least four earned runs in four of five games. He’s also gone 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last six starts. Is he simply wearing down? It’s tough to be too hard on the guy as he has still exceeded his career K/9 rate by two batters (9.41) while dropping a full batter off his walk rate (2.58). He deserves better than his 6-6 record, and his ERA according to xFIP should be closer to three (3.05) than his actual ERA of 4.00.

Nova may or may not remain in the rotation for the Yankees. The good news fore Nova is that A.J. Burnett has a 6.17 ERA and 1.83 over his last six starts, Freddy Garcia doesn’t know how to use a kitchen knife (he cut his finger and had to miss a start) and Phil Hughes is all over the map looking good one outing then getting bombed (it looks like Hughes will likely be sent to the bullpen leaving Nova in the rotation). Nova has a win in seven of his last eight outings, and five times in that stretch he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs. Though he’s pitching better than Sanchez right now he’s giving away four strikeouts per nine (5.37) and is walking more batters (3.28 per nine). He makes up for it with an impressive 55 percent ground ball rate, and pitching for the Yanks obviously affords him a better chance to pick up a “W”.

If your goal is to target wins, something that is always a risk, then go with Nova. If you’re trying to move up, or maintain, your spot in the strikeout column, then Sanchez is the choice. How is that for an  answer?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Ray’s Random Musings

photo © 2011 Matthew Straubmuller | more info (via: Wylio)

Daniel Bard has allowed leadoff hitters to bat .300 against him (30 ABs). The rest of the time batters are hitting .133 (98 ABs).

Erik Bedard pitched 81 innings in 2008. He pitched 83 innings in 2009. He didn’t throw a single pitch in 2010. He’s already up to 90 innings this season. Oh, he’s looked great with a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.50 K/9 mark, but you’re playing with a lighted charcoal briquette with bare hands, and you’re gonna get burned. I’d recommend pushing hard to deal him. Maybe he holds on all year and has a fantastic season, but there’s no way I’d be counting on that, not with his track record of ill health. Oh by the way, he was placed on the DL about two hours ago with a bad knee. At least it’s not his arm. The Mariners expect him to be back in two weeks.

Carlos Beltran is on pace for a season of .280-22-105-80, pretty amazing actually given his physical  woes. Unfortunately he’s also on pace for a mere six steals. Still, after he hit only 17 homers with 75 RBI and 71 runs the last two years there shouldn’t be a single complaint with this guy.

The last 28 days Brennan Boesch is hitting .380 with six homers, 13 RBI and 21 runs scored. That recent surge puts him on a pace that would lead to a season of .300-20-80-100. Is he that type of hitter? The HR and RBI marks are totally acceptable rates, but the runs and average not so much. Boesch doesn’t strike out a ton, but he also doesn’t walk much as evidenced by his 0.49 BB/K rate that is league average. He also owns a slightly below league average line drive rate of 18.5 percent. Neither of those measure says .300 average. His BABIP is a little high at .329, and though it is a sustainable mark, unless he keeps it up there he’s going to have a hard time hitting .280 let alone .300. Also, not many guys score 100 runs when they have an OBP under .360 (his current mark is .357). Only five guys pulled off that trick last year: Austin Jackson, Derek Jeter, Martin Prado, Brandon Phillips and Carl Crawford.

Cliff Lee is working on a scoreless streak of  32 innings, and he’s the first lefty since 1994 to have three straight shutouts (Randy Johnson). But his success goes deeper than that.

* For the month of June, Lee won all five of his starts.

* For the month of June his ERA was 0.21. No NL pitcher has had a monthly ERA that low since Orel Hershiser in 1998 (0.00 in September). Lee’s 0.21 ERA for the month was also the sixth best mark, minimum 40 innings pitched, in the NL since 1912. That’s kind of a long time.

Wily Mo Pena has three homers in 25 at-bats with the D’backs. He blasted 21 homers in 237 at-bats in the minors. That effort puts him on pace to bash 48 homers in 524 at-bats this season. I’m just saying.

By Ray Flowers