2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer

People always ask me, ‘who are your sleepers for the coming season?’ As I wrote recently in Do Sleepers Exist?, I’m pretty dubious that we can use the term as we once did before the proliferation of information that the internet has brought. However, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t players being drafted exceedingly low that couldn’t be difference makers in the coming campaign. One of those hurlers is a guy you may never have spent 10 seconds thinking about – Tim Stauffer.

Let’s start with who the hell Tim Stauffer is.

For those of you who don’t know, and I assume that is a large portion of you, Stauffer was a first round draft pick by the Padres in 2003. However, he has never quite reached the heights expected of him after he was worked very hard his last two years in college (he has lost a few mph off his fastball from those days). Stauffer has made 38 starts and 64 appearances in his career going 14-19 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 250.1 innings. So why am I wasting the time to devote an entire column to him today? You all wanted me to talk about “sleepers” right? Well here is an example of a hurler who, if given a chance at significant innings, could be a strong NL-only option in 2011.

(1) Stauffer appears to have a shot at the 5th starters role with the Padres. Here’s how the rotation would appear to be lined up at the moment:

Mat Latos, Aaron Harang, Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard

It looks like the 5th starters spot will come down to a battle between Cory Luebke, Dustin Moseley and Stauffer.

(2) Petco is still a wonderful place to pitch no matter what role a pitcher finds himself in.

(3) Stauffer finished last season with a 1.85 ERA in 82.2 innings. Amongst pitchers who threw 80-innings in 2010 that was the best mark in baseball.

(4) Stauffer posted a 1.08 WHIP in 2010. Amongst pitchers who threw 80-innings in 2010 that was the 8th best mark in baseball.

(5) Stauffer was equally effective last season no matter what role he filled.
As a reliever: 1.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 43.1 innings (25 games)
As a stater: 1.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 39.1 innings (seven games)

(6) Stauffer does a solid job of keeping the ball on the ground leading to a career GB/FB mark of 1.31. That’s a solid rate, but last season he took things to a whole new level which resulted in a GB/FB mark of 1.76. Given that he induced 10 percent more ground balls last season (54.5%) than his career average (45.9%) it is fair to speculate that some regression will be forthcoming in 2011, but it’s tantalizing to think how much success he could have if he can continue to get batters to beat the ball into the ground.

Will Stauffer be able to match his ERA and WHIP from ’10 in the coming season? I don’t think he has a chance to do that even if he ends up in the bullpen. His line drive rate was far too low last season at 14.6 percent (career 18.9), and because of all the ground balls his homer total was terrific (only three allowed in 82.2 innings). Those numbers will normalize, at least somewhat, this season, and with that both of his ratios will rise. Still, that doesn’t mean that they wont end up in a zone where they would still remain strong totals in an NL-only league.

The real key to his success might be the ability to throw quality strikes while avoiding the free pass. Last season his BB/9 mark was 2.61, a massive improvement over the 4.19 mark he posted in 2009. Given that his strikeout rate has been in the mid six’s the past two seasons, it’s important that he limits the walks.

Will Stauffer be a mixed league option in 2011? He might be if he is given 30 starts, but that doesn’t mean I would go all in on him. Conversely, I do think he is a strong option in NL-only leagues while at the same time being someone you can consider rostering in deep mixed leagues in the reserve rounds.

Anyone can tell you that James Shields is a sleeper heading into the season, but you wanted a deep sleeper. I just gave you a report on one of the guys that might fit that bill in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

The Verducci Effect

I don’t normally completely steal someone’s idea when putting together an article, but in this case I’m going to do just that. Of course I will give full accredidation, so don’t go reporting me to the principle for stealing someone’s work.

Tom Verducci is a well known writer for Sports Illustrated, and a few years back he had a discussion with pitching guru Rick Peterson that led Mr. Verducci to the position about the innings pitched increase youngsters often face from one year to the next. Ultimately what he started espousing was that youngsters who realized a significant increase in innings pitched from one season to another were at an increased risk of breaking down or seeing their productivity decrease in the following season. Ultimately the research that was undertaken led to the Verducci Effect which states the following:

Pitchers who are 25 years old or younger, who see an innings increase from one year to the next of 30 frames or more, are at a greater risk of injury or ineffectiveness in the following campaign.

Now there is some debate about whether or not you should blindly accept this postulate as an accurate depiction of what occurs on the field – Michael Weddell did a study for BaseballHQ in which he determined there really was no increased risk of a burnout or injury in the following campaign – but logic obviously leads to the position that a major increase in inning pitched from one year to the next isn’t likely to be a good thing for a developing arm. I do think that too much is made of innings pitched in some circles, to me a more effective way to look at pitcher’s workload is to track pitches per start, and perhaps even more importantly pitches per inning (those high stress, big pitch count innings can be really detrimental). However, the Verducci Effect speaks to innings pitched, so let’s work with that.

Am I overly concerned when a young arm goes from 125 to 155 innings? Not really. I would be more concerned if that 30 inning jump shot a guy from 180 to 210 innings pitched. However, that doesn’t mean I’m not concerned when that innings pitched mark begins to substantially increase. Here are some of the men highlighted by Verducci as risks in 2011.

Madison Bumgarner (21 yrs old, 214.1 IP, +73 IP): This is a scary increase total in my mind, both because of the innings pitched number, and because of the age of Madison. He is a big kid, listed at 6’4″ and 215 lbs, and his performance in the playoffs was dominating suggesting that the innings weren’t an issue (he was 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 20.2 innings). Still, his IP increase is more than double the baseline for concern with the Verducci Effect, and even if Mr. Verducci is only 50 percent right, the doubling of his suggested baseline makes me 100 percent concerned with Bumgarner.

Alex Sanabia (22 yrs old, 170.2 IP, +66.1 IP): The youngster made 12 starts late in the year with the Marlins, but only three times did he reach triple digit in pitches (with a high of 109). He did have some soreness in his arm late in the year, though there is no way to tell if that was related to the substantial innings pitched increase.

Mat Latos (23 yrs old, 184.2 IP, +61.2 IP): Here’s the big worry with Latos – he has been on this list two years in a row. Moreover, his innings pitched increase has been massive from 56 to 123 to 184.1. That’s right, his innings pitched mark has gone up more than 60-innings in each of the past two years. I don’t need the Verducci Effect to tell me those are scary numbers. You think this massive innings increase is at least party to blame for Latos’ struggles down the stretch last year (1-5, 5.66 ERA, 1.51 WHIP over his last seven starts)?

David Price (25 yrs old, 221.1 IP, +58.2 IP): The Rays are as careful as any organization in the game with how they treat their pitchers. Given that, and the fact that Price is a bit older than the others on this list, I’m not as concerned as a might be if some other hurler boosted his innings total by nearly 60 frames.

Brandon Beachy (24 yrs old, 133 IP, +57 IP): Beachy pitched only 15 innings for the Braves but he did well with a 3.00 ERA an a 9.00 K/9 mark. He did struggle to throw strikes with a 4.20 BB/9 mark, a total that was double the rate he posted in the minors (2.10 per nine). Was that because of wear and tear on his arm or because of the level of the competition? We need more data to be sure.

In the end, common sense might be the best direction to take here. Would I take Jon Garland over Mat Latos because of the youngsters massive innings increase the past two years? Of course not. However, if I was debating between Latos and Dan Haren, well, then it’s a different story.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?

With the 2010 season complete now that the San Francisco Giants are having their victory parade down Market St. (they are taking the same route the organization took in 1958 when the team arrived from New York), it’s time to start looking ahead to 2011. To that end, Ted Carlson asked the baseball staff at Fanball to give their early thoughts on the top-20 hurlers for 2011 (you can read the results at Top-20 Starting Pitchers for 2011). In that piece, Ted called me out for not having Mat Latos in the top-20, and for dropping Ubaldo Jimenez to 15th (no one else had Ubaldo lower than 10th). So let me get to defending myself (to be fair, Ted had Latos at 20 and he was the lowest of the five voters placing Jimenez at 10, so we actually weren’t that different with our views of the two hurlers).

MAT LATOS

Latos had a wonderful 2010 season, his first full year in the big leagues (more on that in a moment). Latos was:

10th in the NL in ERA (2.92)
6th in WHIP (1.08)
5th in BAA (.221)
11th in Ks (189)

Given those numbers you could, rather easily, make a case for Latos being in the top-20 starting pitchers for 2011. Why didn’t I include him?

(1) I went with Yovani Gallardo (#14) and Jonathan Sanchez (20) in the group – only one other voter included either arm – so someone had to be left out.

(2) Latos was great at home (2.45 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .193 BAA), but only good on the road (3.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .248 BAA). He’ll continue to toss his home games in a great pitcher’s park, but the home/road splits are something to monitor.

(3) My biggest concern is his late season failure, and that should have been written with a capital “F.” Not only was he 1-5 in his last seven starts, but his ERA soared to 5.66, while his WHIP went up to 1.51 while batters hit well over .310 against him. Was it a mere regression given how good he was early in the year? Possibly. Did he wear out given that he threw only 56 innings in 2008 and 123 in 2009? Should we be worried about the Verducci Effect – being under 25 years of age and seeing an increase of 30 innings from one year to the next – given that he added 67 innings to his ledger in 2009 and 61.2 in 2010? Apparently I’m more worried about that than others on staff are, but I will tell you this – given that he had health issues during the 2010 season, coupled with the fact that he has had them in the past, I’m concerned about his ability to stay healthy all season long in 2011.

UBALDO JIMENEZ

Jimenez had a season that was even more valuable than the one produced by Latos. Jimenez was third in the league in wins (19) and strikeouts (214), while his ERA was 8th (2.88). Ubaldo also posted a 1.15 WHIP, 9th in the league, and his total of 221.2 innings was 7th in the Senior Circuit. So, why did I list him #15 for 2011?

(1) I still worry about Coors Field. With all the talk that the team might have been fudging things a bit with the humidor, will Rockies’ pitchers see a slight regression in 2011? Jimenez was 9-2 at home with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP at home, and it can be argued that he is the best home pitcher in Rockies’ history (27-14, 3.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 56 games). I’m still a bit nervous though.

(2) Jimenez saw his ERA drop for the third straight year from 4.38, to 3.99, to 3.47 to 2.88. I have a hard time thinking a Rockies pitcher will be under 3.00 year to year.

(3) He was so great early on that a regression was always gonna happen. At the same time, he was the pitcher he has always been in the second half with a 3.80 ERA an a 1.30 WHIP which leads me to think that his 18 starts before the All-Star break was the outlier, not his “struggles” in the second half.

(4) His stuff is great, he had a career best 8.69 K/9 mark, but he still walked 3.74 batters per nine innings, below major league average. In addition, his GB/FB ratio dipped to a 3-year low at 1.40. That’s still a tremendous number, but the dip from 1.94 and 1.88 the previous two years is a concern.

Given Jimenez’s K potential maybe I should have had him higher than 15th. He might move up a bit before I finalize my 2011 rankings, but I have a hard time envisioning him sneaking into my top-10.

By Ray Flowers

Who is the NL Cy Young?

Prior to the completion of the 2010 regular season, I gave a quick run down of the main candidates for the major baseball awards in Early Award Returns. Never one to rest with a cursory look into any topic, I thought it would be a worthwhile venture to explore each of the major awards in a more in-depth manner. With that, here are my thoughts on the 2010 AL MVP.

To see the previous articles in the series click on the following link:

Who is the NL MVP?

Who is the AL MVP?

NL Cy Young

Tim Hudson: The Braves’ ace was 15-5 with a 2.24 ERA on August 28th and he was steamrolling his way through batters on the way to the best season of his career. You can still make the argument that this was his finest season, but his last seven starts will leave a bitter taste in his, and the voters, mouths (2-4 with a 5.32 ERA an a 1.39 WHIP). Hudson finished the year with a career best 2.83 ERA that was 6th in the NL, and his 1.15 WHIP was his best mark since 2003 when he had a career best 1.08 mark. Hudson also struck out 139 batters, a 4-year high, though it was a total that was one less than Cubs’ closer Carlos Marmol (138).

Ubaldo Jimenez: At the break he looked like a shoo-in for the award with his 15-1 record and 2.20 ERA. In the second half though he reverted from the all-world ace he was early in the year to being the solid pitcher he has been for a couple of seasons as he had a 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 101 Ks in 94.2 innings. However, he was able to win only four games against seven loses, and I bet that “failure” to win games will doom him in the eyes of most voters even though it really shouldn’t. Ubaldo was still third in the league with 19 victories and 214 Ks, while his 2.88 ERA was 8th and his 1.15 WHIP tied for 8th. He also permitted a mere .209 BAA, the second best mark in the league to Jonathan Sanchez (.204).

Josh Johnson: Some might have forgotten this fact, but Josh Johnson led the NL in ERA with a 2.30 mark. As late as August 12th his ERA was 1.97, though the final five starts of his season saw that number rise to it’s resting point. Johnson’s season ended prematurely because of a back/shoulder issue, an as a result he threw just 183.2 innings. You had better be pretty damn special if you think you deserve the Cy Young Award with less than 185 innings pitched, and that task becomes impossible when you put up only 11 victories as Johnson did. Still, the guy led the league in ERA, had more than a K per inning (186) and finished the campaign with a WHIP of 1.11, 7th in the NL.

Mat Latos: The Padres youngster would have had a shot at finishing much higher in the final vote if he hadn’t hit the skids in the month of September when over five starts his ERA went from 2.21 to 2.92. Still, for a pitcher in his first complete big league season, Latos was tremendous. He was 10th in ERA, and 11th in strikeouts (189), while he was sixth in WHIP (1.08) and 5th in BAA. He also had the most consistently excellent 15 game run a pitcher ever had which you can read about in my By The Numbers piece.

As great as those four were, this is a two-horse race between Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay. It’s amazing how close the two were this season.

R.Halladay: 21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP

That’s pretty amazing, the closeness of the numbers, is it not? Here are some more.

R.Halladay: 7.86 K/9, 1.08 BB/9, 7.30 K/BB, 0.86 HR/9, 1.72 GB/FB
Wainwright: 8.32 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 3.80 K/BB, 0.59 HR/9, 1.68 GB/FB

Halladay is inching ahead herem but its still insanely close. I bet the caper will be the final three numbers listed next.

R.Halladay: 250.2 IP, nine complete games, four shutouts
Wainwright: 230.1 IP, five complete games, two shutouts

As great as Wainwright was, Halladay was just a little bit better, so no one should complain when he takes home the hardware.

6- Tim Hudson
5- Josh Johnson
4- Mat Latos
3- Ubaldo Jimenez
2- Adam Wainwright
1- Roy Halladay

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 9, 2010

(1) Drew Stubbs is a fantasy ace.

(2) Jose Valverde right elbow tenderness.

(3) Bobby Jenks has ulner neruitis.

(4) In my By the Numbers piece today, I gave a bunch of interesting numbers. Here is a review of a few including history possibly being set by Mat Latos, Dan Uggla and Carlos Pena.

(5) Carlos Gonzalez on fire – but poor on the road this season.

By Ray Flowers

First Half Pitching Stars

We have a great tool called the Player Rater at Fanball. I write a weekly article where I breakdown the top-50 fantasy performers in the game, and you can find the actual Player Rater Tool by clicking on the link. This week I did things a bit different. Since we are at the half way point of the season I broke down the top-10 guys at each position, versus the top-50 overall, and you can read that breakdown at MLB Player Rater: Midseason Stars. In the current piece here at BaseballGuys I’ll break down the top-20 hurlers in the fantasy game as major league baseball gears up for the All-Star Game.

1- Adam Wainwright
He is second in the NL with a 2.11 ERA and a total of 13 victories, while he is second in innings pitched (136.1) and third in WHIP (1.00). The dude is a flat out ace.

2- Josh Johnson
All the early season talk of the #3 man on the list has obscured the fact that JJ leads baseball with a 1.70 ERA and the NL with a 0.96 WHIP. Also, he’s allowed more than one earned run just once in his last 11 starts (he gave up two runs on June 26th).

3- Ubaldo Jimenez
The numbers are spectacular highlighted by by his big league leading 15-1 record and his 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Clearly he’s not affected by the altitude in Colorado.

4- Roy Halladay
Halladay leads baseball with 148 IP, the third highest total in the NL in 15 years at the All-Star break, and his ratios are phenomenal (2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). So how is he only 10-7? Come on Phillies offense, get to it.

5- Billy Wagner
What’s up with that retirement talk Billy? There is no need to contemplate hanging them up given his outstanding work that includes 20 saves, a 1.21 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP an a .156 BAA in 37.1 innings.

6- Mat Latos
Did you know that he is third in baseball with a 0.97 WHIP? Latos also has a 2.45 ERA for the Padres, but the team will likely be cautious with him in the second half because of innings pitched concerns.

7- Mariano Rivera
Amazingly, the guy just never seems to slow down. Is he getting even better with age? His numbers suggest it might be possible: 1.05 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .137 BAA and 20 saves.

8- Rafael Soriano
His K-rate is well off the pace at 7.75 (career 9.68), but otherwise the rest of his performance has been pretty special including a 1.60 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and a stupendous 23-for-24 save conversion mark.

9- Jon Lester
The first lefty starter on the list, Lester overcame a slow start to produce a line that any starter in baseball would be proud of. Lester is 11-3 for the Sox, and ratios like a 2.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are rarely seen in the AL East.

10- Cliff Lee
The newest prize in the Rangers’ corral, Lee leads baseball with a 0.95 WHIP. He’s also posting an unfathomable 15.17 K/BB rate. The best mark in the history of the game for a hurler who qualified for the ERA title is 11.00 by Bret Saberhagen in 1994.

11- Jose Valverde
He is 19-for-20 on saves and is sporting sparkling ratios of a 0.92 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. Also, how in the world is it possible to hold batters to a .125 average through 39 innings?

12- Heath Bell
The NL leader with 24 saves has a fine 1.88 ERA, though his 1.33 WHIP would be his worst mark since moving to San Diego (it was 1.21 in 2008).

13- David Price
The AL starter in the All-Star game, Price leads the junior circuit with 12 victories. It would be a shock if he were able to hold on to that 2.42 ERA, he just hasn’t pitched well enough to really deserve that mark.

14- Jonathan Broxton
Despite an irregular usage pattern – long periods of nothing followed by intensive work – Broxton has emerged with a continuation of his 2009 season, and that is a great thing. He has 19 saves, a 2.11 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and an impressive 12.91 K/9 mark leading to a striking 7.86 K/BB rate.

15- Brian Wilson
Wilson had 41 and 38 saves the past two years, and just past the halfway point this season he has converted 23 of 25 chances. He also has an impressive 50 Ks in 37.2 innings, a total that goes along swimmingly with his 1.91 ERA.

16- Joakim Soria
No one pays any attention since he pitches for the Royals, but Joakim has 25 saves, the best total in baseball. He also has a 2.31 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, numbers that are slightly worse than his career averages (2.13 and 0.99).

17- Andy Pettitte
He always wins games so his 11-2 record isn’t a total shock, but his 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are since over the last four seasons he hasn’t produced an ERA better than 4.05 or a WHIP below 1.38.

18- CC Sabathia
With 12 victories he has already posted a 10th straight season of at least 11 wins. He’s also near the top of the AL in ERA (3.09) and WHIP (1.14) which is a yearly occurrence at this point.

19- Leo Nunez
He entered the year with question marks but he has answered them. His 1.55 GB/FB ratio is a career best (career 0.94) and his K-rate is way up to 9.08 (career 6.78). It’s almost as if he is a new pitcher (potential alien abduction?). The work has led to a 1.04 WHIP and 20 saves.

20- Jered Weaver
Don’t even try lying and say that Weaver was your choice to be leading baseball in strikeouts at the All-Star Break (he has 137, six more than Tim Lincecum). That 1.08 WHIP of his is also fourth in the AL. Only his 8-5 record has held him back from being more of a national story.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May24, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano tosses 73 pitches in simulated game. Hopes to return to rotation next week.

(2) Erik Bedard suffered a setback this weekend. Shocking.

(3) Homer Bailey, John Maine placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.

(4) Mat Latos 0.93 ERA, 0.55 WHIP in his last four starts.

(5) Alfredo Simon hurts hamstring. Orioles may not have to turn to Cla Meredith and Will Ohman in 9th.

(6) Gordon Beckham to remain in the bigs.

(7) Mike Cameron will return to the Red Sox on Tuesday.

(8) With Clint Barmes struggling to hit, Rockies are interested in bring back Kaz Matsui.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May13, 2010

(1) Mat Latos pitches 1-hitter against the Giants.

(2) Bud Norris continues to dominate the Cardinals.

(3) Hunter Pence finally hitting for Astros.

(4) Brad Lidge’s elbow checks out OK.

(5) Orioles get more bad news in bullpen – Jim Johnson might need Tommy John surgery.

(6) Corey Patterson called up to replace Nolan Reimold.

(7) Jarrod Washburn to sit out 2010 season?

(8) Mark DeRosa’s wrist in bad shape – 2010 in jeopardy?

(9) Jarrod Saltalamacchia having big time throwing issues.

By Ray Flowers

It's an Odd World

I was struck by quite a few oddities on this day as I sat down to pen this entry, so I just went with that theme for today.

Mat Latos was reportedly hitting 97 mph on the radar gun last night in his seven shutout innings against the Giants. Latos was almost matched on the night by the Giants Jonathan Sanchez who allowed only one run in his seven innings as the Giants lost 1-0. Moreover, Sanchez struck out 10 while allowing only one hit in the loss. Three points. (1) The last time that the Giants lost a game in which they allowed only one hit World War I was happening – it was September 22nd, 1917. (2) Latos is a potential stud. I worry though that the Padres will limit him to 150-160 innings, so it might be wise to ride him for a while and then move him to a leaguemate who isn’t aware that his innings will be limited. (3) I keep saying it, and people keep laughing at me, but Sanchez just might end up being as valuable as Clayton Kershaw in 2010. Seriously.

The Cubs are a mess, and Lou Pinella isn’t one to sit idly by. He’s already switched the lineup around moving Marlon Byrd (vs. lefties) and Kosuke Fukudome (vs. righties) to the top of the order, and now the team is making a change in the rotation. With Ted Lilly set to return from his minor league rehab assignment this weekend, and with that a starter will need to be moved to the bullpen. Speculation was rampant on Twitter today about who it might be, and ultimately the man chosen to move might have been the one least likely to have taken on a bullpen role – and that is Carlos Zambrano. Big Z hasn’t made a bullpen appearance since 2002. Zambrano certainly has the stuff to dominate in shorts stints, but there are two big concerns. First, he often has no idea where the strike zone is, and you don’t want a late game arm coming in walking guys. Second, Zambrano is the hot head of hot heads. How anyone thinks that matches a role where, even at best, you often end up blowing things for your team, is beyond me. Be very afraid Cubs fans, but if you can, hold on to him in fantasy leagues cause this simply cannot last (sooner or later Carlos Silva will implode).

Mark Ellis missed seven games with a hamstring injury before playing last night. Well, he suffered a setback and today the A’s placed him on the DL. So, he’ll now have to miss 15 more games. Would the team have been better off just placing him on the DL when the injury initially occurred, thereby saving them a week of time? Probably. Too bad the Red Sox did the same thing with their handling of the rib injury to Jacoby Ellsbury (they left him on the bench, but not on the DL, for a week and a half before deciding to DL him).

Prince Fielder isn’t hitting his weight, which is something when you way like a quarter of a ton (he is hitting .224). Beyond the concern with the batting average there is the fact that he hasn’t gone deep in 49 at-bats. Well, I guess we know why – he has a sore hand. I have a sore wrist, but it hasn’t precluded me from continuing to type out really good articles the past week (I must be tougher than Prince).

Zack Greinke allowed two runs over seven innings against the Blue Jays only to see his bullpen cough up the lead and the game. He’s now 0-2 through four starts despite a 3.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

Speaking of the Royals, Jose Guillen continues to mash as if he was the reincarnated Josh Gibson. Guillen is hitting .377 with six homers and 13 RBI through 15 games. How is that for a forgotten man in the fantasy game?

Oh, and one last thing. Mr. Lyle Overbay, my starting first basemen in JEDWARS, an AL-only league, please remember how to hit. How he is batting .119 through 59 at-bats, considering that he owns a .277 career average, is simply astounding. It also goes to show you that things always even out. What do I mean? I have Guillen going absolutely nuts on that same squad, though his production has pretty much been negated by the failures of Overbay.

By Ray Flowers

Today vs. Tomorrow

What kind of person are you? Do you spend money as soon as you cash that work check, or do you put it away and save for that house you and your spouse have planned to buy? While this may seem like an odd question to pose given the nature of this blog, the truth is that baseball team’s deal with the same issue on an almost daily basis. What am I talking about? A little background first.

The Yankees currently sit in first place in the AL East, 2.5 games ahead of the Red Sox going into their matchup tonight. This is hardly enough of gap for the Yankees to do anything but plow ahead continuing to do what they have done thus far (no one is going to be taken a vacation on the bench to rest their bodies).

Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees starter on Thursday night, is 7-2 on the year with a 3.58 ERA over his 20 starts this season. Those are certainly respectable numbers, especially considering a few of the rough outings that Joba has given this year. Still, in his 20 trips to the hill he has allowed three or fewer runs 17 times which would be simply terrific if not for the fact that Joba has failed to last six innings in nine of those starts (45 percent of the time). However, Joba has pitched very well of late having won each of his last three games during which time he has 19 Ks, eight walks, a 0.83 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. That’s dealing folks. So what did ESPN’s Buster Olney say when talking about Chamberlain today? Here is what he said (I’m paraphrasing, but it’s awfully close) – Joba is on a “hard” innings pitched count this season of 160, and he will not, under any circumstance, exceed that number.

Why is that? The team is concerned that they could blow out Joba’s arm early if they don’t allow him to build up arm strength over the years. While I think this is a preposterous position to take, there is some obvious validity to their concerns, especially since Joba has never been a big innings pitched guy. Here are his innings totals since his days at Nebraska in college.

2005: 118.2
2006: 89.1
2007: 112.1
2008: 100.1
2009: 110.2

Obviously it wouldn’t make a heck of a lot of sense to let a guy add 100-innings to his previous high in innings pitched, so I can sympathize with that line of thought. At the same time, did anyone worry about pitch or inning counts back when a guy like Roger Clemens, who Joba is often compared to, was tossing 254 innings the season he was 23 years old (the same age as Joba)? Or how about the 7-straight seasons, starting with that year, that the Rocket eclipsed 225-innings pitched? Have today’s players become “wussified” – a word I’m petitioning Webster’s to add to their dictionary by the way. I’ll leave that argument for another day.

The bottom line is this – should a club like the Yankees worry about protecting their investment, one that could pay dividends for the next decade, at the expense of the current season? What if Joba goes 5-0 in his next six starts with a 1.95 ERA? Should the Yankees still shut him down because he has reached his innings pitched limit? And don’t think this is just a Yankees situation as other youngsters like Rick Porcello, Mat Latos and Clayton Kershaw could also see their workload curtailed as the season winds down (that matters little in the case of Latos since the Padres have nothing to play for, but what about Kershaw who’s Dodgers could play well into October? He tossed 169 innings last season between Double-A and the bigs so does that mean the Dodgers let him hit 200 this season? At his current pace Kershaw might push up against that total during the regular season. Will they shut him down come playoff time if he is their best pitcher? That would certainly take some massive huevos rancheros – and yes, I know that makes no sense).

I don’t know what the answer is, but I can tell you this – if I’m a fan of a team, or I have that guy on my fantasy roster, I certainly don’t want his team to “wussify” him at the expense of immediate success. Damn it I want my 50-inch flat screen. I could care less about that house I’m not going to be able to afford for another eight years.

By Ray Flowers