Pitching: What Goes Up, Might Go Down

It’s all about pitching today. We’ll discuss the always injured Nationals’ ace, a 300 lbs, 57 year old starter on the west coast, a rebounding ace from Philly, and a dynamic rookie with the Cardinals.

STRASBURG FAILS TO LAUNCH

Stephen Strasburg is on the DL with a lat issue. He said he was fine. The team said he was fine. We all knew he wasn’t fine and that he would end up on the DL, right? Facts are facts, and there are a bunch of them in an article I wrote earlier this week titled The Strasburg Dilemma. Adding to what I wrote there I think it’s about time we admit the following.

(1) Strasburg cannot be trusted to make 30 starts. He’s never done that, or thrown 160 innings, in any season of his life.

(2) It’s unabashedly foolish to draft Strasburg in the top-25 overall as many did this season, and it’s similarly crazy to make him your SP1 in the fantasy game. I don’t care how talented he is, you cannot trust him to take the ball every five days. Even when he does the Nationals micromanage him so much that it diminishes his fantasy outlook substantially.

Can we move on now?

COLON OUT OF CONTROL

Bartolo Colon has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Colon is 7-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.09 WHIP for the Athletics. Some facts. (1) The last time Colon threw 165 innings was 2005. Were you even playing fantasy baseball then? (2) The last time Colon had an ERA under 3.40 was 2002. (3) The last time he had a WHIP under 1.20 was 2005. (4) Colon has a 5.35 K/9 mark. That’s a batter an a half below his career rate and would be the second worst mark of his career (he had a 4.95 mark in 2006 when he tossed only 56.1 innings). (5) He’s walked six batters in 12 starts. Six. Since the 1950 season there have only been two seasons with a pitcher posting a BB/9 mark under 0.70 (Carlos Silva 0.43 in 2005 and Bret Saberhagen 0.66 in 1994). Colon’s current mark is also fifty percent of the lowest mark he’s ever posted. Good luck with that continuing.

How are people evaluating pitchers over at Fleaflicker.com?

HAMELS REBOUNDING?

Cole Hamels allowed one run, walked one and struck out 11 in a victory over the Marlins Wednesday. He’s 2-9 with a 4.56 ERA, and that has people freaking out. I don’t think you should be. Here’s why. (1) Hamels has a 8.56 K/9 mark. That’s one hundredth over his career mark. (2) His control has returned. Hamels has walked two batters over his last three starts and four in five outings. That run of success has dropped his walk rate back down below three at 2.89. That mark would still be a seven year high, but it’s finally under control. (3) His 1.18 GB/FB ratio is two hundredths better than his career mark. Right on par. (4) His HR/F ratio is 13.1. That would be a career worst but it’s an acceptable number given his career rate of 11.6 percent. (5) His BABIP is .294, right in line with his career .282 mark. The results haven’t been there according to his ERA and record, but you had better be buying on him quick before his owner realizes the old Hamels is back (ditto Matt Cain who you should all be buying).

READER COMMENT

Dresselrebel – Shelby Miller actually has been thoroughly studly all season. All of his numbers and ratios support this. 10 starts. All were quality. Sub 2.00 ERA. Sub 1.00 WHIP. A K per IP. Should be universally owned and started. That is all.

Of course Miller should be owned and started in all leagues. I never said otherwise. Still, let’s be clear here. Saying Miller should be starting in every league every time he takes the hill is totally different than saying he will be able to keep up this pace and should be looked at as an SP1 in fantasy baseball.

Rookie pitchers since 1950 who have thrown at least 160 innings…

No rookie has had a season with an ERA below 2.05 (Stan Bahnsen in 1968). Miller is at 1.82.

Only one rookie has had a WHIP below 1.00 (Dick Hughes 0.95 in 1967). Miller is at 0.98.

Only eight rookies have bettered Miller’s 9.35 K/9 mark.

NO rookie has bettered his 4.24 K/BB ratio.

NO rookie has ever bettered his 84.1 left on base percentage.

So are you ready to say that Miller is a lock to have one of the three greatest rookie pitching seasons in over 60 years? I think it’s foolish to make that claim after 11 starts.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, May 16

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s every week, I’ll share some insight into a few of the better plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Tyler Flowers
2. Kurt Suzuki

Flowers is hitting .333 the past week and he faces the middling Jerome Williams who has allowed seven runs over his last 11 innings despite being solid this year with a 3.06 ERA.

Wilson Ramos is hurt again, and it looks like a DL stint could be coming. Suzuki should get lots of work behind the dish, and he’s got a hit in nine of his last 10 games.

FIRST BASE
1. Lyle Overbay
2. Adam LaRoche

A surprising contributor for the Yankees this season, Overbay should keep the good times rolling against Aaron Harang whom he has 11 hits in 24 at-bats against (.458 average).

LaRoche has gone 5-for-14 (.357) against Mr. Volquez with two walks leading to a .438 OBP. LaRoche has also been hot of late (.321 with a homer and four RBIs the past week) making him a strong play.

SECOND BASE
1. Marco Scutaro
2. Dustin Pedroia

Scutaro is hitting .480 the past week with six runs scored. When you are producing like that it doesn’t matter who you are facing (it’s Jhoulys Chacin in Colorado where Scutaro has hit .378 for his career).

Can Mr. Cobb of the Rays stop Pedroia who has 12 hits in his last 24 at-bats (.500)?

THIRD BASE
1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Adrian Beltre

I’ve never been a huge fan of Jhoulys Chacin, not when pitching in Colorado, and that’s where he takes the hill against Pablo Sandoval who is hitting .412 with two homers against him in 17 at-bats.

It’s tough to go with anyone when they face Justin Verlander, but Beltre has long held his own. He’s hit .314 with a homer in 35 at-bats, though his OPS has only been .771.

SHORTSTOP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Yunel Escobar

Tulo is the best hitting shortstop in the game right now (Tulo is hitting .322, has a 1.013 OPS and 32 RBIs in 36 games). He’s also murdered Matt Cain hitting .340 with four homers in 53 games. The matchup will also take place in Colorado. Nuff said.

Escobar has four hits in 10 at-bats against the struggling Felix Doubront (he’s allowed a whopping 12 runs over his last nine innings pitched). Escobar might finally be pulling out of his season long slump as well as he’s hit in four straight and seven of eight games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jason Bay
2. Dayan Viciedo

Want a cheap outfield option who has had a great amount of success against the hurler he’s facing? Bay has hit .400 in 35 at-bats against Andy Pettitte who has a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP the past three weeks.

Viciedo has looked good since he returned to action (Viciedo has hits in nine of 10 games, and he’s gone deep twice with four RBIs in his last three outings). Can’t get any better than he has been against Jerome Williams though as he is a perfect 5-for-5. He even has a walk which might be more shocking.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Alex Cobb
4. Matt Cain

Quintana has a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 ERA on the season, and he faces the Angels in Anaheim Thursday. In his last outing he allowed six base runners and two earned runs over six innings against this same Angels club. Does the hitters familiarity, having seen him less than a week ago, scare you off?

Volquez has a 3-0 record and 2.49 ERA the past three weeks as he’s all of a sudden locked in. He’s facing a Nats team that is down Jayson Werth and potentially Bryce Harper, but that’s still a solid club and the game is on the road where Volquez often struggles.

Cobb had an astounding 13 Ks in his last outing, astrounding because he only recorded 14 outs (that’s the first time that has ever happened in big league history). Cobb faces the Red Sox, a team he allowed three earned runs, while striking out six batters, in a 6.2 inning loss on April 14th. He has a 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over four starts agianst the Sox.

Cain pitches in Colorado, and that’s always a difficult thing for any hurler, but Cain has pitched very well against the Rockies in his career with a 15-7 record an a 3.11 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in Colorado. Cain is also 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA the past three weeks.

By Ray Flowers

Finally Home

I’ve spent the last three days in the hospital with the whopper of all illnesses. Try throwing up 20+ times (literally), having cramps to bad that you can’t straighten out your fingers for nearly two hours, yeah, it was great times, and taken your first ambluance ride ever. On the slow road to recovery now though. Thanks for all the well wishes to all of you, I really appreciate it.

Some observations from my hospital bed.

Why couldn’t the Dodgers activate Hanley Ramirez 12 hours earlier? It was too late for me, and I assume you, to activate him for your weekly lineups.

Matt Cain looked like Tim Lincecum against the D’backs. In control for all but one inning of his outing. Cain’s HR/9 mark has to turn around. When it does, his performance will revert to normal expectations. Buy low if his current owner is burned out and ready to move on.

I don’t care what they say, I look really good in a hospital gown. Really good.

Nolan Arenado was called up by the Rockies and hit a home run in his second game. The hype train is rolling down the tracks and gaining steam by the minute. Be careful. Arenado was hitting over .360 at Triple-A this season, but he hit only .285 in Double-A in 2012. Could he hit .300 in the pro’s this season? Doubtful. His average should be solid, but I worry about the power. Sure he plays in Colorado, but you have to be able to lift the ball. Since the start of the 2011 season Arenado’s fly ball rate is 33 percent, which is less than the big league averagem (around 35-36 percent). It’s very difficult to be a big home run hitter with a mark that low. Two points. (1) Over the last two years, Arenado has played 134 games each season an averaged 16 homers a campaign. Sixteen. (2) Do you know how man guys hit 25 homers last year with a fly ball rate of 33 or less percent? Billy Butler, Buster Posey, Carlos Gonzalez, Dayan Viciedo, Chase Headley and Adam Jones. That’s it if I didn’t miss someone in my illness induced state. Also remember, those fellas had six full months of action. The most Arenado can have is five. Might sound crazy to some, but think Joe Randa for 2013.

I need a shower. After three days, I think it’s about time.

To see how others are evaluating players like Arenado don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

Is It Time to Panic?

I get questions all day from folks. Many of them come from people who are panicked about the struggling the players they own, while some come from folks who overestimate the value of the players on their roster leading them to think they’ve got the championship in the bags. In the following piece I’ll give my thoughts on a series of players and let you know whether you should be buying or selling in the fantasy baseball game.

I’M NOT WORRIED – BUY

Matt Cain – People have lost their minds. Giving up on Cain. Why? It’s AMAZING to me how much people panic with a guy like Cain who has been so rock solid impressive the past four years. It’s like nothing I ever say gets through to some people. Sure his ERA is 6.59, but I could care less. His 8.16 K/9 mark would be a seven year best. His 1.88 BB/9 would be a career best. Pretty sure his HR/9 isn’t going to stay at 1.88 as his career mark is a mere 0.78. And then there is this. His current 3.82 xFIP mark is exactly the same as it was last year, and 0.04 above his 2011 mark. His ERA’s in those two years were 2.88 and 2.79.

Ike Davis – He’s hitting .164 with three homers and six RBIs. Last April he hit .185 with three homers and eight RBIs. He ended 2012 with 32 homers and 90 RBIs. I’m not saying he’s a lock to get there against this season, but I’m just pointing out that he started out extremely slowly last year and by the end of the year he was a productive power force.

J.J. Putz – The majors leader in blown saves with three. The issue, as it often is, revolves around location. He’s walking five guys per nine innings right now. That will come down. The last two years he hasn’t even walked 1.90 batters per nine. The other issue is homers. He gave up four taters in 2010, four in 2011 and four in 2012. He’s already allowed two in nine innings this season. For 7-straight years his HR/9 mark has been under 0.80 (it’s been under 0.68 the last four seasons). Pretty sure that number isn’t going to stay at hia current 2.00 level. Putz also has 12 Ks in nine innings.

Giancarlo Stanton – He’s hitting .200 with zero homers. Last season in April he hit .247 with one homer. He ended the year with 37 big flies in a mere 123 games. I told you all, repeatedly, that he was not a .300 hitter. I also told you I was worried about his team situation and mental health. Can’t say I didn’t warn you as I was emphatic about saying I wasn’t going to take Stanton in the top-20 this season. At the same time, you’re nuts if you’re selling this talent for .80 cents on the dollar. You should be trying to add this power monster, not deal him away.

I’M WORRIED – SELL

Tony Cingrani – Through two starts he has a 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 17 Ks in 12 innings. Wow is right. Still, he’s no lock to even be in the rotation in three weeks as Johnny Cueto rounds into shape. Plus, Tony’s still throwing his fastball 81 percent of the time through two starts. That’s a huge number. Once teams start to pick up on his motion and the movement on his fastball the results will change, and I’m pretty sure he’s not going to be able to hold onto his 64 percent ground ball rate either.

Bartolo Colon – He’s 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He’s walked one batter in 26 innings. Come on now, has he turned into Greg Maddux? Colon is striking out less than six per nine and the last time he threw 165 innings in a season was 2005.

Chris Davis – Finally fell under .400 at .382. Here are the facts. (1) He has one homer in his last 11 games. (2) He has three RBIs in his last 11 games. (3) His walk rate is double the last two years. It’s highly unlikely he sustains that growth. (4) His K-rate is 33 percent of what it has been the five years. Pretty tough to think he maintains at that level. (5) His .413 BABIP is light years ahead of his career .339 mark. Career bests in homers, RBIs and average are certainly possible given his hot start, but there is nowhere to go but down.

Ross Detwiler – Wow has he been good. Through four starts he owns a 1.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also sporting a horrific 4.50 K/9 mark. If he throws 180 innings this seasons that’s 90 Ks folks. Ninety. From a starting pitcher. He’s also lopped off a batter from his BB/9 mark from the last two years, and he’s not going to hold onto all of that. His HR/9 mark has dipped more than 50 percent from his career rate (down to 0.35). He’s not holding on to that either. Oh, and his 88.2 left on base percentage is unsustainable. Heed the warning of his xFIP (4.20). See his Player Profile.

Paul Maholm – Someone sent me a note on Twitter that they were happy to be able to deal Stanton to get Maholm. I’m serious. From his Player Profile. “Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around… he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.” Seems like most aren’t heeding my advice here either. The two biggest things that stand out: (1) His .212 BABIP is nearly .100 points below his career .304 mark. Since 2006 that number has been between .281 and .327 every year. (2) His 8.54 K/9 rate is THREE batters above his career mark which is an unsustainable pace. He’s only had one season with the mark over six the past four years.

Jose Valverde – He’ll be called up and given a chance to close for the Tigers. Here are three of my Tweets about him from last night.

Have none of you seen Valverde pitch lately? ’12 = career WORST K/9 (6.26) & K/BB (1.78) hint at scary times ahead.

Valverde ’12 = LUCKY 3.3 HR/F ratio 1/3 of career. 0.77 GB/FB 2nd worst of 9 yrs. XFIP 5.01.

Jose Valverde K/9 last SEVEN years: 12.59, 10.91, 10.38, 9.33, 9.00, 8.59, 6.26.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: Augus16, 2012

Each week on Thursday’s I’ll be answering fantasy baseball questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Carlos Santana for Salvador Perez, Ryan Doumit, Willin Rosario, or Jonathan Lucroy?
– @Krisr0ck27

First off, everyone needs to make sure they do a two catcher league next season. This is especially so in the the myriad of 10 team leagues that I receive questions about every day. If you can literally go to the waiver-wire an add any of those last four names, you should be ashamed at the lack of depth in your league. Lucroy is hitting .324 on the year. Rosario is tied with Buster Posey for the NL lead in homers (19) for catcher. Doumit has been a top-10 catcher this year (.294-14-59). Perez has hit .298 with eight bombs in a mere 39 games.

When the season started I would have said to go with Santana. Over the past four weeks only one catcher on this list has outperformed him (Doumit who has hit .311-7-17) as Santana has hit .270 with six homers and 19 RBIs. Santana has also hit seven bombs with 23 RBIs, a .410 OBP, a .542 SLG and .953 OPS since the All-Star break. You can move to Doumit if you need a bit of an average boost, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with holding on to, and riding, Santana.

First in all offensive categories, close to last in pitching categories. Is it worth giving Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Cain for the home stretch?
– @stealyurbase

It’s certainly the time of year in rotisserie that you have to play the categories. That means making deals that sometimes may not make total sense off the top. Would I ever draft Matt Cain ahead of Carlos Gonzalez? Are you on dope? Would never happen. But we’re 4.5 months into a six month season, so if your team needs pitching help this is certainly something to consider.

Cain continues to marvel with his consistency. Last year he had a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This year he has a 2.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Moreover, since the start of the 2009 season, a span of 122 starts, Cain has a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. All he does is take the ball every five games and give the Giants a chance to win. Period. My only hesitation here is that Cain has been a bit below his normal standards over his last seven starts as he’s been saddled with a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, not awful numbers, but he’s not exactly trending in the right direction.

The deal isn’t a world beater by any means but it’s also solid given your needs.

I’ve been offered Hunter Pence for my Alex Gordon in a 12 team, H2H league. Seems like a good buy low but a lil worried.
– @NotoriousBox

I understand the concern, Pence is hitting a mere .177 with the Giants, but let’s compare these two guys efforts to one another.

Pence has doubled Gordon in homers, 18 to nine.
Pence has 24 more RBIs – 70 to 46.
Pence has scored one fewer run (66 to 67) and stolen two fewer bases (five to seven).

The only category in the fantasy game that really favors Gordon is batting average (.293 to .259). What about that average? Pence has a career .288 mark. Gordon’s career mark is .267. Pence also has hit at least .282 each of the past four years. Yes Pence is hitting .183 over his last 30 games and Gordon is hitting .341, and that’s a mind boggling difference. Still, I assume we can agree that neither player is likely to continue their pace since the All-Star break, right?

I’d take a shot on Pence. He’s got too much history on his side not to think he could still make a run to .280 this season, and he clearly has displayed a significant power advantage over Gordon this season.

Give up Curtis Granderson for Andre Ethier and Adam Wainwright? Could use a starting pitcher.
– @LKrukowski

Granderson has 30 bombs, 68 RBIs and 79 runs scored putting on pace for another excellent season. Of course there are some among you who are disappointed with that effort as he hit 41 homers with 119 RBIs and 136 runs scored last season. He was never going to repeat those numbers. He’s also continued his bizarre trend of alternating impressive an average steals totals from season to season (26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and eight this year). His batting average has also dipped to .235 an it’s looking like this will be his third sub .250 effort in four seasons.

Ethier will certainly give you a nice batting average boost. A career .291 hitter, he’s batting .288 this season after back-to-back efforts of .292. He’s nowhere near the run producer that Granderson is though as he’s hit only 22 homers over his last 241 games. Furthermore, after a torrid start to the year that included 44 RBIs in 50 games he’s driven in a mere 12 runners over his last 31 contests. On the hill  is Wainwright, and he is surging. Over his last seven starts he has a 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, nearly a K per inning (44 in 48.2 frames) and he’s walked only eight batters. It took a while for him to find his footing, but over the past two months he has looked as good as he ever has.

If you need starting pitching help I think this is a solid deal, especially since Ethier should help to smooth out the ding that Granderson put into your batting average. Let’s just hope that the Cardinals don’t shut down Wainwright early to protect his arm. After all, he didn’t throw a big league pitch last year.

In tight battle for 1st on a 15 team league. Worried about Dan Haren rest of year. Time to cut bait or hang tight?
– @99hokie

Haren clearly isn’t 100 percent because of that back. As a result of the physical woes his performance has been up and down. A prime example. After allowing a total of four runs in three starts he permitted five earned over 3.1 innings in his last outing. That still gives him a 3.80 ERA over his last four starts, nearly a run below his 4.68 mark for the season. If we pull back a bit further he still has a solid 3.00 K/BB ratio on the year. His GB/FB ratio of 1.00 is right on par with his mark the last two years. He is surrendering more homers than every before (1.44 per nine versus 1.04 for his career) and that number could normalize a bit. He’s also dealing with a .283 batting average against, and only once since 2005 has that number been over .260 so it’s possible that he could be a wee bit stingier with the base knocks the rest of the way.

Admittedly there is no way to know exactly where Haren’s body is at, but I’d still profess faith in his ability to get batters out. You can’t expect the 3.17 ERA, 1.02 WHIP guy from last season, but he should still be an above average option on the bump, especially in a 15 team league (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

The weekend is quickly approaching, so get ready to get your swerve on. For those of you looking to remain at least a little bit serious with your hobby (fantasy baseball not drinking) I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday while also suggesting you head over to DailyJoust.com to check out their unique brand of daily fantasy baseball games (including a way to win two tickets to the Major League All-Star Game).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Jay Bruce vs. Nick Blackburn: Bruce has been ice cold for a while hitting .227 over his last 45 games. Still, he has 12 walks in 18 games in June and his SLG for the month is .500. Bruce has gone deep 12 times in 174 at-bats against righties this year and he gets to face Nick Blackburn who has been torched by lefty batters this year to the tune of a .393 BAA and .924 OPS against this season.

Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren: The Angels’ righty has struggled a bit with health and performance which only adds to the aura for Ethier in this matchup. In 44 career at-bats Ethier has five doubles, two homers, seven RBI and a .386 batting average against Haren. James Loney also hammers Haren (.359 in 39 at-bats).

David Wright vs. Andy Pettitte: Wright is third in baseball with a .358 batting average. He’s hitting .343 in June. He’s hitting .343 against lefties this season. Facing Pettitte 24 previous times Wright has managed to produce two homers an a .458 batting average. Lock and load.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Tigers: The last eight times that Burnett has taken the hill this year he has allowed two or fewer runs seven times (he allowed three runs in the other outing). He’s also picked up a win in each of his last six outings. He does face a Tigers club that is potent, but I’m going to focus on his recent success this season and the 5-2 career record he has against the Tigers over the 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he has against the Motown club over nine career starts.

Jason Hammel vs. Nationals: Hammel has killed it at home this year with a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over five starts spanning 32 innings. He’s also had success in his career against the Nats going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over six starts.

Clayton Richard vs. Mariners: (1) He’s facing the Mariners. (2) Richard is Matt Cain when pitching at home. Think I’m nuts? Here are the numbers that prove it.

Matt Cain 2012: 12Wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 179 K in 222.2 IP

Clayton Richard career at Petco: 13Wins , 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K in 228.1 IP

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Russell Martin vs. Chris Young: Martin has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Young leading to a .320 batting average. Martin has also had a solid June with four homers and nine RBIs for the Yankees.

Alexei Ramirez vs. Randy Wolf: The lefty from Milwaukee has bombed on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over six starts. Ramirez has finally started to pick things up of late as well as he’s hitting .359 the past two weeks, and for his career he has hit .300 in 617 at-bats against lefties.

Ben Zobrist vs. Kyle Kendrick: Over the past two weeks Zobrist is hitting a robust .400 (he’s also scored 10 runs in 10 games). Kendrick, on the other hand, has struggled like he’s looking to be demoted as he’s allowed at least five runs in each of this last three starts as his ERA has gone from 4.02 to .529.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Cueto vs. Twins: The Twins can’t hit, and that situation isn’t helped by the fact that Joe Mauer can’t get his wheel healthy enough to play. Cueto has never faced the Twins but he’s sporting a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six home starts this season, and over his last four outings overall he’s permitted only seven runs while not allowing a single long ball.

Ian Kennedy vs.  Cubs: Though he owns a 5.91 ERA over three starts against the Cubs, how about we focus on the positive –  he’s lasted 21.1 innings in those three starts during which time he has struck out 18 and walked only two leading to a 1.08 WHIP. Kennedy has also allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts this year. The key will be keeping the ball in the yard as he’s allowed nine homers over his last eight outings.

Adam Wainwright vs. Royals: Wainwright is back on his game, well pretty much. Though he allowed seven runs on June 1st the other six times he has taken the hill since May 20th have resulted in eight earned runs allowed. In the process Adam W. has lowered his ERA from 5.77 to 4.46. He’s also had success in his career against the Royals with a 3.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

CONTESTS

Over at DailyJoust folks, lots of hot things popping (didn’t I sound super street there?).

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Player Profile: Matt Cain

There are other pitchers who make more money, who have more fame, and who reach greater heights than Matt Cain (it’s pretty tough for Cain to get a footing in the national conscience when one of the five biggest stories in baseball on the hill happens to be his teammate, Tim Lincecum). At the same time, there my be no hurler in baseball who is more consistent than the Giants #2 starter who will be looking for one more big season as he heads into free agency after the 2012 season.

Cain has never won 15 games in a season, basically the bare minimum for one to be considered an ace. In fact, he’s only won in double-digit’s in four of the last six years which might lead you to think that he isn’t anything to write home about. However, if you’ve followed Cain closely over the years, you know the story – the Giants simply have an aversion to scoring runs when he is on the hill. Just take a look at his earned run averages over the past five years:

3.65, 3.76, 2.89, 3.14, 2.88

The last three years his ERA has been borderline elite, an in fact his 2.97 mark in that time frame is the sixth best mark in baseball for hurlers who have thrown at least 480-innings as he bested arms like Jered Weaver (3.03), Justin Verlander (3.06) and CC Sabathia (3.18). Unfortunately Cain has won 14, 13 and 12 games the past three years as the Giants anemic offense simply hasn’t supported him sufficiently leaving him on the outskirts looking in when talk roles around to the games greats. Still, consistency is his hallmark.

Cain owns a 1.20 career WHIP, and the last three seasons his WHIP has been 1.18, 1.08 and 1.08. Moreover, his base runner per nine mark of 10.25 is the 8th best mark in baseball the past three seasons and better than Felix Hernandez (10.51), Cole Hamels (10.55) and Tim Lincecum (10.79). He’s obviously been extremely consistent the past three years.

Cain has struck out at least 163 batters each of the past six years. Only three others hurlers are in that group (CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren). In his last four years Cain has been over 170 Ks, and the last three years his totals have been 171, 177 and 179. Yet again, he’s obviously been extremely consistent the past three years.

One aspect of Cain’s game that is elite is his ability to take the ball every five games. In his first full season he tossed “only” 190.2 innings, but in each of his last five seasons he has thrown at least 200-innings. In this day and age, the ability to throw 200-innings year after year is a rare trait (only six others have thrown 200-innings each of the past six years: Roy Halladay, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren and CC Sabathia).

I could go on and on with Cain, highlighting things like his remarkable 3-year run in BABIP (.263, .252 and .260), but I think the point is clear: Cain is a  borderline elite arm who will throw a lot of innings, pile up strong strikeout totals, and provide you with top of the heap ratios. He may not rack up wins with the elite, his total of 39 is tied for 12th in the game the past three years, but all of his other fantasy numbers will help you to win a championship. I must admit to some trepidation given that his GB/FB is just 0.84 for his career, and that his HR/F ratio is just 6.5 percent, but for now, pitching half his games in the pitcher’s ball yard in San Francisco will minimize those concerns. Cain shouldn’t be your #1 starter in mixed leagues, but if he is your #2 arm, you’ll be sitting in a nice spot.

By Ray Flowers

Labor Day

It’s Labor Day, so I hope all of you are pulling back on a beer, sitting poolside, and just enjoying life while I soldier on at the keyboard (I know, I’m, such a martyr aren’t I?).

Franklin Gutierrez is likely done for the year with a strained oblique muscle. He’s been bad for so long that you may have forgotten that he avereged 16 homers, 67 RBI, 73 runs and 21 steals the past two years. Well, he hit one homer, knocked in 19 runners, scored 26 times and stole 13 bases in 92 games for the Mariners this season. Yeah, that qualifies as a massive letdown. Don’t get me started on his teammate Chone Figgins (.188-1-15-24-11).

Remeber that story about Josh Hamilton not being able to see during the day time because he had light colored eyes (What’s on Tap)? Well, Hamilton has apparently settled on a routine of drops and sunglasses to help cure his woes, and it’s showing as he has hit .342 in day games since the All-Star break. I still find this story so fascinating. Is he really the only player in baseball with light colored eyes? I’m no optomitrist, but still.

I bet you might be unware of this fact but Aaron Hill is finally hitting. I know, shocking to think isn’t it? Not only has he hit .381 since he joined the surging D’backs he’s also been smoking hot of late going 11-for-22. That’s a .500 average folks. It’s not time to put behind him all the all struggles he’s shown the past two years, but he’s finally starting to perform like the All-Star level second baseman that he has shown himself to be previously.

Speaking of hot bats, have you been keeping an eye on Carlos Lee? Of course you haven’t, and why would you since he plays for the Astros. However, if you haven’t checked lately you will have missed the fact that he’s  hit, get this, .457 the past two weeks. His current hot streak has pushed him up to a pace that would nedt hit a line of .277-16-89. That’s not great production by any means, but it’s a usuable line in deep mixed leagues.

Cliff Pennington the last two weeks – .359 with 15 RBI. One word for that – wow.

Grady Sizemore has been activated from the DL. He’s hitting .237 without a single steal in 61 games this season. Remember back when he was a 30/30 performer in 2008 as he was finishing up a 4-year run of at least 22 homers, 76 RBI, 101 runs and 22 steals?

Example 1,873,279 of why being a major league pitcher isn’t always fair. Ian Kennedy leads the NL with an 18-4 record while teammate Daniel Hudson is 15-9. Those two D’back hurlers have ERAs of 2.96 and 3.53, while their WHIPs are 1.12 and 1.22. Tim Lincecum is 12-12 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while Matt Cain is 11-9 with a 2.85 ERA an a 1.07 WHIP. Speaking of poor records, Lincecum, Cain, Ryan Vogelsong (2.62) and Madison Bumgarner (3.43) are all in the top-16 in the NL in ERA (if you remove MadBum the other trio of Giants hurlers are all in the top-8). That foursome has combined to go 42-39 for the sinking Giants.

by Ray Flowers

History is Happening

Usually I mention players in alphabetical order in my BaseballGuys.com article, but today I’m breaking that mold as I felt that the historic work of one Phillies hurler deserved to lead off the show.

Am I talking about Roy Halladay? Nope, but I did write about him yesterday in Is It Safe? Today I’m going to discuss the history making run that Cliff Lee has provided, and if you think I’m using hyperbole, which I have to admit I do fall into on occasion, your wrong. Lee threw 8.2 scoreless innings against the Reds Wednesday night, and with the victory in that outing he moved to 5-0 on the month. That’s not historic you say? You’d be right there. However, he also posted a 0.45 ERA for the month. I’ve got your attention now don’t I? When you combine that effort with his work in June (5-0 with a 0.21 ERA) – now we’re cooking you might be thinking. In fact, Lee’s two months of near perfection have enabled him to become just the third pitcher in the history of baseball to have two separate months in one season in which a pitcher has won at least five games (without a loss) while producing an ERA under 1.00. How amazing is that? Oh, in case you were wondering who the other two men were, here you go.

Bob Gibson (1968): 6-0 with a 0.50 ERA in June and July. Yeah, he went 12-0 with a 0.50 during that stretch. Talk about amazing.

Walter Johnson (1913): 5-0 with a 0.24 ERA (April) and 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA (July).

Now you see why I led off the piece with this news.

Since the All-Star Break Ryan Braun is hitting .357 with nine homers, 27 RBI, 35 runs and 12 steals in 42 games. Yeah, he’s good.

For those of you in NL-only leagues, Chris Heisey was activated from the DL today (he had been out with an oblique issue). I’m not sold that the Reds will play him every day, but with 12 homers, 38 RBI and 36 runs in 217 at-bats he is on a pace that would net him 28 homers, 88 RBI and 83 runs scored over 500 at-bats.

How unlucky has Felix Hernandez been this year? Last year he went 13-12, and this season he is currently 13-11 with the month of September to go. Still, in his 11 losses he permitted three or fewer earned runs six times. However, that likely wouldn’t faze Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum of the Giants who have been criminally supported by their offense. I hope you’re sitting down before you read this – it’s pretty amazing

Zero ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 3 outings
M. Cain 4-0 in 5 outings
Lincecum 5-1 in 7 outings

How do you lose games when you don’t give up an earned run. Giants’ hitters should be especially proud of themselves.

One ER Allowed
MadBum 4-3 in 10 outings
M. Cain 3-1 in 6 outings
Lincecum 6-0 in 9 outings

Two ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 4 outings
M. Cain 1-2 in 6 outings
Lincecum 0-2 in two outings

What are the trio’s records in those games in which they’ve allowed two or fewer earned runs? How about 27-11. What that means though is that if they allow more than two runs the trio is just 4-21 on the year.

Jesus Montero is finally up with the Yankees. A prodigious hitter with a luminous future, scouts predict that Montero will be a middle of the order bat for years to come. The 21 year old catcher likely won’t see much time behind the plate, his defense lags well behind his bat, but he should see a fair amount of work in the DH spot, at least against left-handed pitching. He’s a must start at this point in AL-only leagues, and if you are desperate from some offense at your second catcher spot in mixed leagues you can take a flier on Montero and probably not end up looking too stupid.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 23, 2011

Photo By Jon Dawson

Are you seriously trying to tell people that James Shields is a better option this year than Matt Cain or Matt Garza?
– Jimmy, San Antonio, Texas

I certainly like to get in trouble at times don’t I?

I’m sure this question comes from my recently published top-100 list for starting pitchers in which I had James Shields at #24, Matt Cain at #27 and Matt Garza at #36. On the surface those rankings do look bonkers, after all Shields posted an ERA over five last year, but here is my reasoning.

With Cain, his arm hiccup in spring makes me a tad nervous (without it I would have had him ahead of Shields). From 2006-10 Cain was one of nine hurlers who tossed at least 190-innings each season. Have all the innings finally started to catch up with him? Provided they haven’t, you know exactly what to expect from Cain as his performance has certainly been rock solid. At the same time, he’s only had one season with more than 13 wins and has only one season of 180 Ks. If his new level of performance mirrors his work the last two years (3.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) then he will be the hurler to own out of this threesome if he can avoid injury, there is little doubt about that.

Garza is another one of those rock solid hurlers who’s performance has remained remarkably stable the past three years, just look at his ERA (3.70, 3.95 and 3.91) and WHIP (1.24, 1.26 and 1.25) in that time. The immediate reaction is to think that those numbers will improve in 2011 now that he is out of the AL East and pitching in the National League. Not so fast. A fly ball hurler who has seen his FB-rate increase in each of the past four years (up to 45 percent last year), Garza gives up a wee bit too many fly balls for my comfort for a guy who will pitch half his games in Wrigley Field, the 5th best park in the NL in terms of homers in 2010 according to Park Indices (the last three years the park ranks 4th). Does the ballpark factor alone mean that the advantage he will gain moving to the NL could be wiped out by where he will pitch his home games?

Shields lost 15 games, had a 5.18 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP last season, all terrible numbers. So how in the world can I put him in the same breath as the others? Hear me out.

First, Shields was terribly unlucky last year. Despite a line drive rate that was only one percent above his career level, his BABIP rose by nearly .035 points. That doesn’t make sense on the surface, and the contention that he was “unlucky” is buttressed by his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark of 4.24, nearly a full run below his actual ERA (5.18). In addition, though his GB/FB ratio was the same as always at 1.08 (career 1.15), he allowed a terribly high 1.50 homers per nine inning (career 1.22) thanks to a career worst HR/F rate of 13.8 percent. Have you ever heard of a ‘perfect storm?’ Second, his K/9 rate last year was a carer best (8.28), about a batter above his career level (7.38). Third, his K/BB ratio of 3.67 was only 0.03 off his career mark. It was also the 10th best mark in baseball. It might also surprise you that Shields led this trio in K/9 and K/BB. Shields also posted a better FIP (4.24) than Garza (4.42), and though his mark trailed Cain (3.65) it was nowhere near the two run difference in their actual ERA (5.18 to 3.14).

If Cain is healthy he’s likely to be the top dog out of this trio, but that doesn’t mean he will be the best  investment. Based upon draft day cost Shields should easily be the most effective use of your resources given that he will come at a discount in most leagues because of his “down” 2010 performance.

I’ve been hearing a lot of good things about Todd Helton. I’m in a 13-team NL-only league and I was able to grab him for $5 on draft day. Was that a worthy investment on my part?
– Nick, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

So far this spring Helton has looked strong hitting .355 with a .916 OPS in 31 at-bats. Of course, we’re talking about 31 at-bats. Plus, Helton is 37 years old and coming off the worst season of his career (.256-8-37 with a .728 OPS in 398 at-bats), so anything positive would likely be an improvement at this point.

Jim Tracy came out earlier this week and said that the plan is for the club to rest Helton liberally over the course of the season to keep him in shape (essentially to keep his back strong). The club also brought in Ty Wigginton this offseason to give them some depth at first if need be in case Helton resembles the player who failed to hit .270 or reach 400 at-bats in two of the past three seasons. At the same time Helton is just one year removed from a .325-15-86 line, and he can still get on  base (his .362 OBP last year was a career worst and the first time his OBP had been under .390 since 1998). Helton is no longer a threat to hit 20 homers or to win a batting title, but if used properly he can still be an effective offensive weapon given his ability to get on base. Does that translate into fantasy value in 5×5 leagues? Not really. Personally I have a soft spot for Helton so I have no issue with a $5 bid. If he craps out you haven’t wasted too much dough, and if everything breaks right he could double your investment, though the odds are against that actually happening.

Tell me why I shouldn’t expect Starlin Castro to go 20/20 this season? I’m loving this kid.
– Jim, Fremont, California

Sample size people.

Castro has blown up this spring hitting .383 with four homers and a .702 SLG in just 47 at-bats. Point #1 – it’s 47 at-bats. Point #2 – it’s spring training. Point #3 – we are talking about four swings.

I don’t doubt that Castro could evolve into a 20 homer hitter, after all the guy turns 21 years old tomorrow, but expecting him to reach those heights this summer because of a good month of hitting seems foolish. Castro hit three homers last year in 463 at-bats with the Cubs, and since he turned pro he has gone deep 10 times in 1,237 at-bats. Do you trust 1,237 at-bats or 47 in terms of their predictive power? I’ll tell you this. If Castro hits 51 percent of his balls on the ground this season to match the mark he posted in 2010, he will have no shot at 20 homers, 15 will be hard to attain, and the ceiling might be 10. Perhaps he’s dialed in a more powerful stroke this spring, but I still find it hard to believe that he will be able to double the homer production he has offered in three years in professional baseball in half as many at-bats in 2011.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s baseball analysis can also be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.