Around the Horn: November 19, 2012 – Awards

(1) Buster Posey the runaway winner of the NL MVP Award.

(2) Why did Miguel Cabrera dominate Mike Trout in AL MVP voting?

(3) Why did R.A. Dickey dominate in NL Cy Young Voting?

(4) David Price defeated Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver for the AL Cy Young.

(5) Bryce Harper narrowly edged Wade Miley for NL ROY.

(6) Mike Trout the 8th unanimous winner for AL ROY.

(7) Oddities in voting. Who are some of these voters?

BBWAA – Award Info.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what they offer, and shame on you for not knowing, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Carlos Lee vs. John Lannan: Lee is hitting, get this, .538 over his last seven games with 14 hits in 26 at-bats. You simply cannot be hotter than that. He also faces Lannan Friday night who he has hit .474 against in 19 at-bats. Seems like a match made in heaven.

A.J. Pierzynski vs. Zack Greinke: The old reliable matchup. AJP has hit .408 with two homers in 49 at-bats against the new Angel. While you’ll want to start the backstop you’ll want to avoid his slugging teammate Paul Konerko who has only nine hits in 62 at-bats (.145) against Greinke.

All Yankees vs. Kevin Millwood: I’m only sorta kidding. Look at these numbers though.

Nick Swisher .357 (42 ABs)
Mark Teixeira .379 (injured)
Raul Ibanez .373 (51 ABs)
Ichiro Suzuki .395 (81 ABs)
Robinson Cano .394 (33 ABs)
Andruw Jones .421 (19 ABs)

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Matt Harrison vs. Royals: (1) Harrison has a 12-6 record and 3.19 ERA this year. (2) He’s pitched slightly better on the road (3.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). (3) He’s facing off against Jeremy Guthrie. Seems like a solid start to me even though he’s allowed nine runs in his last two outings.

Tim Hudson vs. Astros: Hudson has long had success against the Astros with a 1.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 4-0 record against the club. He’s also won his last three starts to improve to 10-4, and he’s just not beating himself as he’s walked just nine batters in his last seven starts.

Matt Moore vs. Orioles: Moore has allowed four runs over his last three starts, and the last two times he’s taken the hill he’s struck out 13 batters while walking just two. He’s also gone 5-straight starts without allowing a long ball and he’s pitched a bit better at home this year as well (3.61 ERA, 129 WHIP in 12 starts) than on the road.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Robinson Cano vs. Felix Hernandez: Dan the difficult looking matchup. Cano has hit King Felix to the tune of a .378 average and 1.007 OPS over 37 at-bats as he has gone deep twice.

Aramis Ramirez vs. Adam Wainwright: In 47 at-bats Aramis has clearly gotten the better of the Cards’ righty with 19 hits, including seven doubles and two homers, leading to a .404 average and 1.142 OPS. Overall Aramis also has 10 hits in his last 22 at-bats (.455).

Neil Walker vs. Mike Leake:  Over the last month Walker is hitting .351 with six homers, 18 RBIs and 15 runs scored as the second most valuable fantasy performer at second base (only Brandon Phillips has been better). Walker has also killed it vs. Leake hitting .368 with a homer and eight RBIs in 19 at-bats.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Wei-Yin Chen vs. Rays: Chen made five starts in July and four of them were “quality” as he racked up 41 Ks, with a 3.15 K/BB ratio and 3.44 ERA, over 36.2 innings. He faces a Rays club that has produced just eight hits off him in two starts (.200/.319/.300 slash line against him).

Doug Fister vs. the Indians: Fister had a nice month of July that included a 3.60 ERA and 37 Ks in 40 innings on the bump. He also won four games for the Tigers and has allowed a total of six runs in his last four starts while picking up an impressive total of 31 Ks.

Hiroki Kuroda vs. Mariners: You’re pretty safe pitching anyone against the Mariners, but when it’s Kuroda, it makes even more sense. Not only has he held current Mariner’s batters to a .231 average an a .645 OPS, he’s also rolling having allowed just three runs over his last three starts and he’s also gone at least seven innings in each of his last four starts.

CONTESTS

DailyJoust has all the daily fantasy baseball action you could possibly hope for.

If you’re new to the site, you can enter the FREE $50 Prize game.

If you’re a seasoned veteran, how about trying your hand at the $12,000 Prize “King’s Crown” MLB Tournament?

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link.

By Ray Flowers 

Mailbag: July 12, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Would you trade Rickie Weeks for Francisco Liriano and Stephen Drew? I need pitching depth after many injuries.
– @lqmattson

Weeks has been awful this year hitting .199 with a .658 OPS. Still, he’s immensely talented, has stayed healthy (always an issue for him), and he simply can’t remain this awful for an entire season. He just can’t (don’t forget that he is coming off back-to-back seasons of 20 homers, 75 runs and an exactly similar .269 batting average each campaign). Looks like the turnaround has already started too as he’s hitting .297 with two homers, seven RBIs and 10 runs scored the past two weeks.

Liriano has literally brought his ERA down three full runs over his last seven outings. During those seven trips to the hill he has a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 52 Ks in 49.1 innings. Walks are still a concern, his 4.38 BB/9 mark is about a batter above where we’d like to see it, but the point is pretty obvious – he’s locked in right now and in five of those eight outings he has allowed zero or one run. He’s not the Liriano we all remember dominating hitters in 2006, but he clearly looks like he is back to being the 2010 version of himself and not the dreadful hurler we saw in 2011 and for the first two months this season.

Drew is never going to live up to expectations, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective fantasy weapon at shortstop. Remember, from 2007-2010 Drew was a top-10 shortstop even if none of his numbers really jump off the page. Even last year his 162 games would have produced a season of roughly 10 homers, 85 RBI, 80 runs and eight steals – solid numbers to be sure. However, he only appeared in 86 games due to that catastrophic injury to his ankle, and he’s just back out on the field with the big league club having appeared in nine games with poor results (.179 with a .440 OPS). Obviously he will improve, but until he reaches the point where he starts to produce, consider me to be a bit wary (users at Fleaflicker also appear to be in a wait and see approach).

You can do this deal if you need pitching depth as you said, and if the plan includes Drew serving as a backup middle infielder. However, if Drew has to start right now, it’s hard to suggest making this move because even though Weeks has struggled this year, he appears to be heating up and he is clearly the healthier, more ready player to attack the start of the second half. This would be a deal you make solely based on need.

Would you want Cody Ross or Todd Frazier in 14 team h2h dynasty league?
– @MacVincent1

Remember when you had a crush on that gal in high school? You know, that cute gal who thought you were great because you were so funny and smart – yet she always ended up dating some loser who treated her terribly? That gal keeps trying to “date” Cody Ross, I keep telling telling her it’s a bad idea, and she keeps doing it anyway. Newsflash people – Jacoby Ellsbury should be back Friday. Obviously he’s going to play everyday. Carl Crawford should be back in about 2-3 weeks. If healthy, he’s playing everyday. Since David Ortiz is locked in at DH, that means the Red Sox will have the following players vying for time in right field: Ryan Sweeney (rumors suggest the Red Sox are trying to trade him), Daniel Nava, Ryan Kalish, Scott Podsednik and Ross. Yeah, it’s gonna get crowded. I would be remiss if I also didn’t note that Ross is hitting just .264. He’s striking out at a career worst level. He’s batting .238 with a .750 OPS against right handed pitching. Sure he has 20 homer, 75 RBI upside, but really this is a pretty boring skill set that could potentially be in for a playing time squeeze soon.

Frazier has his own problem, chiefly the presence of Scott Rolen. A potential HOF candidate, Rolen was at one point the best all-around third basemen in baseball. That was 2004 though. A broken down shell of his former self, Rolen simply cannot hit any longer as his body has worn down, and through 42 games he is batting .178 with a .302 SLG. Why the Reds continue to play him semi-regularly makes no sense, not with Frazier hitting so well. A third baseman, the Reds have used Frazier a bit in the outfield to get his bat in the lineup, something they should do on a daily basis considering that he’s hitting .278 with nine homers, 29 RBIs an a .901 OPS through 180 at-bats this season.

To me, this is an easy decision. In a keeper league you have to go with Frazier who actually profiles as a very similar hitter to Ross. Two main facts tip the balance to Frazier. First, he plays third base. Second, he’s six years younger.

Do you still think Matt “Harrison is just blah”?
– @theYankeeHajny

I recently answered a question on Twitter about Harrison saying he was “blah.” Of course, it’s hard to give an accurate answer in 140 characters, you get even less space when you are responding to a question, but my point was this (even if my less than eloquent initial response didn’t directly say it). Harrison may have a 3.10 ERA, but that mark really should be a run higher. If it was, his xFIP is 3.95 and his left on base percentage is elevated at 78 percent, we’d be talking about a pitcher with a league average ERA. A solid ground ball arm (51 percent of batted balls are grounders), Harrison is pretty awful in the K column with an average of 5.56 Ks per nine innings, a batter an a half below the league average. So if he’s a league average ERA arm, and below average in K/9, then he’s totally dependent on his record and WHIP leading him to fantasy prominence. He’s 11-4 this year and 25-13 since the start of last season, so he’s looking pretty good in the win column, though we all know that wins-loses don’t always follow based upon a pitchers performance (just ask Cliff Lee who is 1-5 despite a 3.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.06 K/9 and 4.90 K/BB mark). Harrison does have a solid WHIP at 1.24, but given his skill set it would seem at least a 50/50 bet that the mark will creep into the 1.30′s in the second half which is once again league average.

Harrison is a wonderful real world arm, but he’s just not that exciting from a fantasy perspective if we’re talking about a standard 5×5 setup.

Eric O’Flaherty – regressing or bad luck? I’m in a points league with Solds.
@eoin_daly

Boy expectations can be rough.

O’Flaherty was dynamic last year with a 0.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 67 Ks in 73.2 innings. There’s simply no way that anyone keeps up that pace year to year. This season he’s working on a 2.87 ERA. His career mark is 3.11. His WHIP is 1.34. His career mark is 1.29. His K/9 is 7.47. His career mark is 7.00. His K/BB ratio is 2.17. His career mark is 2.16. Moreover, his 64 percent ground ball rate is not only massive, its 11 percentage points better than his career mark. The only real downer for him at this point is a more than doubling of his HR/F mark (from 6.00 in his career to 16 percent this year). When that number normalizes, and it should, we’re likely to see his ratios improve a bit. O’Flaherty has been fine based on his career numbers, and solid regardless of his “regression.” Last season was simply one of those for the ages type of efforts and he was never going to repeat that success this season.

As for Solds, that is the category that I keep pushing for relievers. With all the turnover in the 9th inning, literally two-thirds of all closers from opening day have changed this year, isn’t it time we move on from the antiquated recording of points for relievers that relies so heavily on the save? Why not just use Solds (saves + holds) as a better representation of relievers value? You wouldn’t have to roster a guy like Heath Bell with his 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP for his save total, you could instead roster a guy like O’Flaherty who has pitched much better even if he doesn’t have the saves total to prove it (O’Flaherty has a Solds make of 15, just six behind the 21 mark of Bell).

CONTEST – Have you signed up yet for a chance to take me on in a one day fantasy baseball battle, 1-on-1? Click on the link to the DailyJoust contest to get more details.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Fantasy Beat – Pitchers Down, Catchers Up

Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman discuss some injured pitchers and some possible streaming options. They also discuss a couple of catcher options that are great waiver wire pickups.

Evan Longoria, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Beachy, Felipe Paulino, Brandon Morrow, Matt Harrison, Clayton Richard, Salvador Perez, Derek Norris, Martin Maldanado

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Mailbag: April 19, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Justin Morneau just hit the wire. Drop Dexter Fowler, Kendrys Morales or Billy Butler to get him?
– @JoshNarva

I’m cheering on Morneau as much as the next guy, but let’s slow our roll here a bit. I know that he’s playing defense which is great news, and that he has hit three homers in his last two games. All of that is well and good. However, someone needs to mention that the last time this guy had 300 at-bats was 2009. It should also be noted that over his last 80 games played Morneau has hit .235 with eight homers and 36 RBI. I’m all for hoping he will return to being the 20-100 man he was for 4-straight years from 2006-09, but he’ll need a lot more than two strong games to convince me he is back to that level.

The obvious move to be made would be to drop Morales. Both play first base and both are coming off injury. But think back three weeks. Is there anyone, and I mean any one of you, that drafted Morneau ahead of Morales? I bet there wasn’t one of you as Morneau was still struggling while Morales was simply bashing the ball in Spring Training. Ask yourself this question. Are you going to let 11 games, the total each has played this season, change the opinion that you held three weeks ago?

Should I drop Carlos Marmol for Santiago Casilla, Fernando Rodney or Jim Johnson?
– @harveynuts

More panic in the streets when it comes to closers, but I can’t really blame anyone (did you see the crazy news that Brad Lidge is dealing with vertigo? It’s like anything, and I literally mean anything, could sideline a 9th inning arm at this point. I fully expect one of the closers in the game to go missing in the Bermuda Triangle at some point in the near future).

Quickly, my thoughts on each.

Johnson has been stable, after some spring concerns, converting all five of his save chances. His K-rate is uninspiring (5.77 per nine for his career), ditto his K/BB (2.01), but he keeps the ball on the ground (57 percent). He could offer a 2011 Brandon League type effort if everything goes just right.

Rodney, how can I put this? He stinks. From 2007-11, that’s 270 games worth of pitching, had an ERA of  4.42, a WHIP of 1.50 and his K/BB was pathetic at 1.57. He wasn’t, and let me stress this, league average in any of those three categories the past five years. Good luck with him holding down the 9th inning job all year even if he’s been one of the better producers this season (see Fleaflicker).

Casilla has concerns as well, primarily his lack of pinpoint control. For more, see The On Deck Circle.

Keep Marmol. Not only does he have the longest track record of 9th inning success among this group, he’s also the most dominating option with one of the best K-rate’s in the history of baseball (min. 450 innings pitched his 11.73 K/9 mark is 4th all-time with the leader being Rob Dibble at 12.17). With Kerry Wood dealing with arms woes who would the Cubs turn to – Shawn Camp or James Russell? Please.

With RP being a crap shoot so far, does the value of Jose Valverde increase?
– @Phastball

It depends on how you view the value of Valverde. Is his job safe? Absolutely. Is he coming off a perfect season with 49 saves in 49 chances given him a massive amount of rope? Without question. At the same time, he didn’t pitch near as well last season as most people assume when they look at the save conversion rate. (1) Since 2006 his K/9 rate has gone down every season. 2011 was the first time in his career that he struck out less than a batter per inning. (2) Never a paint the corner artist, Valverde has walked an average of 4.39 batters per nine innings the past two years, more than a full batter worse than the league average. (3) His career GB/FB ratio of 0.96 is less than the big league average (about 1.10), another mark against him. I’m not predicting failure from him in 2012, he’ll get his saves, but realize he isn’t the pitcher that he was a few years ago even if he’s been so impressive at converting those save chances of late.

What do you think about Tommy Milone? What’s the comparable ceiling for this guy?
– @tallen1984

Scouts like Milone, but at the same time they’ve always been a bit reluctant to fully push him as an elite prospect since his pure “stuff” just isn’t that dominant. However, he had one of the more remarkable seasons of any minor league hurler last year when he went 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 148.1 innings at Triple-A. While those are good numbers, here is the remarkable part – he struck out more than a batter per inning, 155 in total, while walking 16 batters – sixteen. That’s 16 walks in 24 starts folks leading to a 9.69 K/BB ratio. Amazing.

Milone figures to have success, he certainly knows how to pitch, but he still throws 87-88 mph, and there is no way he’s going to be able to post numbers in the bigs like he did last season in the minors. The best case scenario for him this year is something akin to what Mark Buehrle accomplished last year (13-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 109 Ks).

Nolan Reimold or Matt Joyce for 4th OF?
– @gtrevino1975

I’ve been getting a ton of Reimold questions thanks to his impressive start (.341/.357/.707, four homers, eight RBI), but I’m not shocked at his success. In the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, I highlighted Reimold as a potential breakout performer you could grab on the cheap. Reimold has flashed the type of skills that lead one to believe that if he gets daily playing time, something he has received in the early going, that he could hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases (he is dealing with neck spasms and a hammy injury though, so there are a few health woes to worry about). He may never be more than a league average type in batting average, nothing in his K-rate, BB-rate, BABIP, GB/FB, LD-rate says he is anything but blah, but those counting numbers could be pretty darn solid if he gets 500 at-bats.

The real question here is do you go with the hot start and potential of Reimold and forgive the fact that he’s been lingering as a letdown for the past few years, or do you turn to Joyce who had a nice season last year when he posted a fantasy line of .277-19-75-69-13. In essence, Joyce was the type of player last season that many “think” Reimold can be. It’s not like Joyce has a long track record of success compared to Reimold, but I’m a fan of been there, done that. I had Joyce a few spots ahead of Reimold in my rankings three weeks ago before the season started, and Reimold is bit beat up right now physically, so I’m still leaning in the direction of Joyce right now.

Mat Latos was just dropped. I have Ted Lilly, Matt Harrison and Brandon Beachy. Do I drop anyone for him?
– @GetARealJob111

This is all I’m going to say about Ted Lilly. Since 2007 Lilly has the 5th best base runner per nine inning (10.40) mark of any pitcher in baseball who has thrown at least 750-innings, and he’s one of just 14 pitchers who has an K/9 mark of 7.50 in four of the last five seasons, minimum 150 IP a year (he just missed making it 5-for-5 last year with his 7.38 mark).

Beachy has a stupendous arm. In 168.2 career innings he has a K/9 rate of 10.30 and a K/BB rate of 3.33. Those are elite numbers. I’m not letting a young hurler with numbers like that go.

The guy you let go of to add Latos, and please add Latos and don’t panic with his poor performance to date (0-2, 8.22 ERA, 1.89 WHIP – it’s been three starts people), is Harrison. For more on why you should move on from Harrison see Quick Starting Pitchers.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.  

Quick Starting Pitchers

Most starting pitchers have only taken the mound two or three times. But as we all know in the fantasy game, it’s never too early to try an improve a fantasy squad. Given that line of thought, I decided to discuss some of the under the radar types that are off to strong starts for their respective clubs. I’ll assume the following for the sake of the discussion: we’re in a 12 team mixed league that starts nine pitchers on a weekly basis. There are certainly scenarios in this setup where every pitcher on this list might have some use, but that doesn’t mean any of them should be making 30 starts for you this season in a 12 team setup.

Blake Beavan, Mariners: 1-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
Beavan hasn’t beat himself in two starts issuing only one free pass, and that will be key for a guy who had only 42 strikeouts last year in 97 innings. Beavan pitches to contact and was successful doing that last year with a 4.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 15 starts. The problem is, that level of production is all you have a right to expect from the Mariners tall righty – and that just doesn’t move the needle.

Kevin Correia, Pirates: 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
In two starts he has been the quintessential ‘let the batters put the ball in play and let my defense work for me’ type. Through 12 innings he’s only walked three batters while striking out just five. However, he’s also pitched in two solid pitcher’s barns in Los Angeles and San Francisco, and that’s likely part of the reason for his success. Also, don’t fool yourself, Correia simply isn’t a very good hurler. For his career, and we’re over 900-innings now, he’s posted a 4.56 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.23 K/9 and 1.86 K/BB. Simply put, he’s as blah as blah gets though it should be noted that in his last 16 starts on the road his ERA is 2.45 while his WHIP is 1.09.

Matt Harrison, Rangers: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
The Twins and the White Sox did little against Harrison who has picked right up from where he was last season when he won 14 games with a 3.89 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Harrison has a heavy ball that leads to a lot of grounders, but he’s not an elite ground ball hurler (46 percent of batted balls). Given that he doesn’t miss many bats and that he had a career best 6.11 K/9 mark last season, his margin for error isn’t exactly large. With wins being variable, this isn’t a skill set that necessarily points to long term fantasy success, but he should be pretty solid.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: 1-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
A first round selection in 2007, Porcello has the stuff to be a major asset to the Tigers. The Rays and White Sox witnessed that first hand as Rick went seven innings against both club while issuing just  single free pass in the process. Poised to produce a breakout, this ground ball ace still isn’t an overly intriguing fantasy option (52 percent of batted balls end up rolling through the infield grass). Why is that? The lack of strikeouts of course. I target starters with a K/9 mark of at least six. Through 91 big league starts Porcello has been deficient with a 4.84 mark. Again, real world success is certainly possible, but in 12 team mixed leagues Porcello is more of a match up option than someone you should be rolling out there every week.

Joe Saunders, D’backs: 1-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
A two-start pitcher this week, Saunders followed up seven shutout innings against the Padres by allowing one run over seven innings against the Pirates Monday. Saunders is as blah as it gets. Just take a look at his numbers over 163 career starts: 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.03 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, 1.27 GB/FB. Purely a matchup option, I’d hope that Saunders is only being used when he’s facing the Pirates or Padres, or when he’s starting twice in a week.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Like so many others on this list, Westbrook is a better real world pitcher than he is a fantasy weapon. Westbrook lasted seven innings in each of his first two starts, and his ratios are wonderful. Still, he has only four punchouts in the two games while he’s issued five free passes. Westbrook will win games, and he’s looked pretty strong since spring, but the guys has a career ERA of 4.30, a WHIP of 1.39 and his career best for Ks is 128. I’ll pass.

By Ray Flowers

Early Season Surgers

photo © 2011 Richard Eriksson | more info (via: Wylio)

Kay Adams, Kyle Elfrink and I had a big time debate yesterday on The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. about Jose Bautista. My position was, as you probably expect, that I just don’t understand how he’s doing what he’s doing.  Bautista leads the AL in average (.362), homers (eight), OBP (.522), SLG (.783) and OPS (1.304). How do people not see the utter folly in expecting him to continue along at this pace?

Let’s compare his current pace to his carer best numbers.

Average: .260 (career .247)
OBP: .378 (career .349)
SLG: .617 (career .462)
OPS: .995 (career .810)

Last year was totally ridiculous, you have to see that, but what he is doing this year is insane. I don’t care how he changed his swing, this guy simply isn’t Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols. How about some historical perspective. Do you know how many players have back-to-back 50 homer seasons? The answer is five guys – Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Babe Ruth. Even the most ardent fans of Bautista know that he doesn’t belong in that group, not even close. Beyond the homers, something everyone is simply missing completely here, is that Bautista has never, not once, hit even .265 in the big leagues. If he were to finish this year hitting .290 (there is no way he will if you ask me), and if he were to have 569 at-bats this year (his total from last year), we’re talking about a guy who will hit .280 the rest of the way. Again, given that he has never hit even .265 in a season, do you really think even that modest projection is likely?

Let me bash Starlin Castro for a moment. Will he one day be a top-5 shortstop? I don’t doubt that at all. Can he do it as a 21 year old this season? Even with his hot start (.350-1-11-17-4) I really question whether it’s possible. I touched on Castro yesterday in my Mailbag Article. To pile on that, his OBP is only .024 points clear of his batting average since he has only four walks, and it’s pretty darn hard to hit well above .300 if you rarely walk. And for those of you looking for a power breakout, it just ain’t gonna happen when you hit 57 percent of your balls on the ground (that number dips somewhat to 52.4 percent in his brief career, but even at that level 10 homers is the best you can expect).

Anyone besides me miss the Geto Boys?

Matt Harrison was bombed on Tuesday night allowing seven runs in just three innings. Obviously he isn’t going to pitch that badly very often, but even with that outing his ratios are still solid (3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Do I think he can keep this up? No I don’t. Maybe I’m wrong, but when a guy doesn’t strike out six batters per nine, walks more batter than the big league average (3.41 per nine), allows more homers than the big league average (1.14) and has a merely average GB/FB rate (1.29) while pitching in a home ball yard that favors hitters – I get nervous. Speaking of nervous, what in the world was Harrison scared about when he took his team photo this year? Yikes.

Josh Tomlin lovers, it’s all going to come to a crashing halt at some point. Here’s why – he’s nothing more than an average hurler. I know he is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA, but there is no chance, zilch, that he can keep this going (he will not be this years Clay Buchholz). Tomlin’s K/9 rate of 5.00 is below the big league average (7.00), and the same can be said about his K/BB rate (2.14 to 2.10), HR/9 (1.00 to 1.00), and his GB/FB ratio (1.21 to 1.10). Face it everyone, he’s been all smoke and mirrors. His FIP mark tells the truth. Though his ERA is 2.33, FIP says that mark should be 4.26. I don’t know when the bottom will fall out, but it’s bound to happen sooner or later.

By Ray Flowers