2011 Positional Review – Outfield

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2011 OUTFIELD Top-20
1 Ryan Braun
2 Carl Crawford
3 Matt Holliday
4 Carlos Gonzalez
5 Nelson Cruz
6 Josh Hamilton
7 Matt Kemp
8 Andrew McCutchen
9 Shin-Soo Choo
10 Jason Heyward
11 Alex Rios
12 Justin Upton
13 Andre Ethier
14 Hunter Pence
15 B.J. Upton
16 Ichiro Suzuki
17 Jayson Werth
18 Jay Bruce
19 Shane Victorino
20 Chris Young

Braun was amazing in 2011. You can read all about that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Crawford was a disaster in 2011. You can read all about that in Carl Crawford: Total Failure.

Holliday had all kinds of issue this year (appendicitis, a quad, a finger, a bug in his ear), and in the end it hindered his performance. Holliday still was productive hitting .296 with a .912 OPS, and his pace over 550 at-bats would have equated to 27 homers, 92 RBI and 102 runs scored. Too bad he appeared in just 124 games.

Gonzalez was injured multiple times, but don’t let that fool you, he still had a fine fantasy season (.295-26-92-92-20 in 481 ABs) even if it failed to live up to his unrepeatable 2010 effort (.336-34-117-11-26 in 587 ABs). There are few better five category options in the game.

Cruz has been killing it in the playoffs, a sure sign that if he could ever stay healthy he’d produce a truly special season. Cruz had 29 homers and 87 RBI during the year, but with 475 at-bats he failed yet again to stay healthy long enough to post his first 500 at-bat season.

Hamilton was injured, again (what a shock), as he appeared in just 121 games. However, whenever he was on the field he was darn productive as he hit .298 with 25 homers, 94 RBI, 80 runs scored and eight steals.

Kemp was the best player in fantasy baseball in 2011. Kemp finished one homer short of going 40/40 as he hit .324 with 126 RBI and 115 runs scored. Kemp led the NL in homers and RBI, and finished just .013 points behind Jose Reyes to fall just short of the Triple Crown.

McCutchen was everything that was advertised for the Pirates going 20/20 (23 homers, 23 steals), scoring 87 runs and knocking in a career best 89. His average dipped from the .280s to just .259, but that number figures to rise in 2012.

Choo was injured multiple times resulting in a season of just 85 games. After hitting .300 the last two years, his .259 average was a major disappointment, and his .344 OBP was a career worst as well. He’s still got the skills to be a top-20 outfielder, but he’ll need health to prove it.

Heyward fell so far this season (.227-14-42-50-9), that even people in keeper leagues are worried about his long term value. Immensely talented, no so quiet whispers pen him as “soft.” After an impressive rookie season and a second year flop, there may be no one in the game with more to prove.

Rios was an abject failure hitting .227 with 13 homers, 44 RBI, 64 runs scored and 11 steals. How bad were things? His .265 OBP was .010 points below his career batting average. Too talented to do this again, his BABIP (.237 versus a career .306 mark) should rebound next season, so don’t overlook him on draft day 2012.

Upton had another outstanding season for the D’backs. He posted his second 20/20 season with a career best 31 homers and 21 steals, and he also scored a career-high 105 runs. Throw in that .289 average and .898 OPS and we have an excellent all-around performer who just might be able to take his game up another notch.

Ethier hit .292 with a .368 OBP, right on his career averages (.291 and .364). Unfortunately, he hit a meager 11 homers, knocked in only 62 runs and scored just 67 times. There’s no way of sugarcoating what was a poor season made even worse by how well it started out (he hit .380 over his first 28 games).

Pence ended the year with the Phillies after getting out of the exile that was playing for the Astros. All told he had yet another, well, Pence like season resulting in 22 homers, 97 RBI, 84 runs, eight steals an a .314 average. The average an RBI marks were career bests for the ultra consistent performer.

Upton had another up and down effort for the Rays as he hit a mere .243 with a third straight season of 150+ Ks. However, he also was one homer and one RBI off his career bests (he hit 23 bombs with 81 RBIs), scored 82 runs and swiped 36 bases. He was one of the more productive outfielders in baseball if you could look past the batting average.

Suzuki finally lost it, and by “it” I don’t mean his virginity, I mean his streak of hitting .300 with 200 hits as he batted .272 with 184 hits to end his 10-year run. He still offered production with 80 runs and 40 steals, but given the cost it took to acquire him on draft day he was a substantial disappointment.

Werth was always going to lose some of his production moving from a great park with a great lineup in Philly, but he really stunk it up in certain respects in 2011. It’s fair to say he had some value, he was only one steal short of a 20/20 effort, but he hit .232, posted a 7-year low in OBP (.330) and only drove in 58 runs after averaging 92 the previous two seasons.

Bruce hit an impressive 32 homers, fell just three RBI short of his first 100 RBI campaign, and scored a career best 84 runs. Still, he was wildly inconsistent driving his owners mad (.342-12-33 in May, .241-11-40 over his last 69 games).

Victorino just goes out and gets it done year after year. He hit .279, spot on his career mark, and for the fourth straight year scored at least 84 runs (he had 95) while he hit 17 homers (one off his career best), and stole 19 bags (though that was a 5-year low).

Young hit an awful .236 including a stupefyingly low .193 in the second half, but the guy still did his best Mike Cameron impersonation with 20 homers, 71 RBI, 89 runs scored and 22 steals.

Busts: Carl Crawford #2, Shin-Soo Choo #9, Jason Heyward #10, Alex Rios #11, Andre Ethier #13, Ichiro Suzuki #16, Jayson Werth #17

There were so many busts in the outfield, I’m not even gonna list any “hits.”

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 19, 2011

(1) Jake Peavy twirls masterpiece. Should you be buying?

(2) Colby Rasmus, Matt Holiday and Lance Berkman hurt.

(3) Fernando Salas the Cards’ closer? Not so fast.

(4) Adam LaRoche = abysmal. Is a turn around coming?

(5) Injured players update – Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 8, 2010

Lance Berkman – Early reports had him playing left field with Matt Holliday shifting to right field. Looks like that isn’t going to be happening. This is good news for Matt Holiday who has never played right field. It’s bad news for Berkman and the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Berkman has been a first basemen the past few years, hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007, and really hasn’t been a full-time outfielder since 2004. He better hit, a lot, because he’ll likely be a butcher in the field.

Jack Cust – Signed a 1-year deal for $2.5 million to join the Mariners. This is an example of a good and bad signing. First, the good. Cust joins a club that needs offense as the Mariners were last in the majors in runs, homers, OBP and OPS. It’s also a completely reasonable contract. The bad? They already have Milton Bradley set to DH and he is set to make $12 million dollars this year. How awful does that contract with Bradley look? About as awful as it did when it was signed – he was never going to be able to live up to that 3-year, $30 million deal that ends after this season.

DH Types – Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome are all in the market for an AL team looking for a designated hitter. All three still have value, and all three could legitimately hit 25 homers in 2011. At the same time all three are aging, and it’s pretty clear at this point that none of the three really belongs in the field at all. Teams in need of a bat would be advised to apply here though as these three old timers can still slug it (here are their OPS marks from 2010: Guerrero .841, Manny .870 and Thome at 1.039).

Matt Diaz – Signed a two year deal to join the Pirates (it is rumored to be for about $4.25 million). Diaz crushed lefties, always has, and his career splits are pretty pronounced.

vs. lefties: .335/.373/.533, one HR per 25.3 ABs
vs. nighties: .269/.327/.382, one HR per 54.9 ABs

Remember that if you plan on drafting him this season.

As a result of the deal, the Pirates are considering moving Ryan Doumit. They already have Chris Snyder to catch, and the original plan was for Doumit to play the outfield most of the time. Doumit is also scheduled to make $5.1 this year with club options for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million). It seems odd to me that the Pirates would want to get rid of a guy who could serve as their backup catcher and potential platoon mate with Diaz to form a nice combo in the outfield. I know the Pirates aren’t going to pay the guy over $15 million for 2012-13, but why not keep him for now?

Jeff Francoeur – Here is where major league teams could learn something from us “stat geeks” in the fantasy game. Simply put, Francoeur does not have an approach at the plate that will allow him to have long-term success at the dish, and all you have to do is to look at his career numbers. Apparently no one in Kansas City can operate a spreadsheet though, so the Royals went out and gave Francoeur a $2.5 million deal for 2011 with a $3 million mutual option for 2012. So let me get this straight. The Giants got Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million, and the Royals gave that amount of money to Frenchie? Burrell had a “down” 2010, but he still produced a .348 OBP and a .469 SLG. Francoeur has never posted an OBP of better than .338, and he has never posted a SLG of .450 in a season of more than 275 plate appearances. Simply put, Francoeur stinks. Of course, we are talking about the Royals who have brought in similar hitters the past few years in guys like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. It’s no wonder this team never wins.

Doing it Right: The White Sox

The White Sox singed Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56 million deal to serve as their designated hitter. That move looked even better when they were able to secure the services of Paul Konerko on a three year, $37.5 million deal (Konerko helped out the club as well by taking $30.5 million the next three years with $1 million dollars a year from 2014-2020 in deferred payments). So for $26 million in 2011 the White Sox should get themselves about 80 homers, 200 RBI and 180 runs. Would you rather get that or 15 wins, 220 innings and Cliff Lee for the same price? Seems like an obvious call to me. Furthermore, think about this:

The White Sox, if you add up the contracts of Dunn and Konerko, gave two deals that amount to 7-years and $93.5 million. Would you rather have Dunn AND Konerko at that rate or Jayson Werth and his 7-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals? Uh, yeah. Great move Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

Let Tuesday Roll

I’m all over the place today (seems like I’ve written that before). So I thought what better way to lead off my grab bag o’ thoughts than to just put it – so there it is.

For all the posturing and good news about the health of Carlos Beltran’s knee, word from the Mets is that he will not start his minor league rehab assignment this week. In fact, some reports seem to suggest that he is still running with a limp at times. I’m still not counting on him being back until the All-Star break, so even if he does somehow return before that point I won’t be counting on much production.

Ryan Braun has an OPS of .865 which is, remarkably, less than guys like Austin Kearns (.877), David DeJesus (.871) and Luke Scott (.868). Come on Mr. Braun, get her in gear buddy. Speaking of getting it in gear, how wretched has Prince Fielder been this year? Fielder has 24 RBI, the same total as Eric Hinske who has 120 fewer at-bats, and his .447 SLG is lower than Gaby Sanchez (.452) who has all of seven homers. All told, Fielder is on pace for 30 homers and 61 RBI. That’s the kind of production you were hoping for when you spent your second round pick on Fielder this season, isn’t it? I know it’s really close to the 46 homers and 141 RBI he had last season. Goodness.

If you spent all day watching True Blood’s season three opener over and over again, you might have missed the fact that the Athletics traded for Conor Jackson. If you did, or if you simply are curious, you can find my thoughts about the deal at Around the Horn – Bay Area Style.

Aaron Heilman has been named the closer for the D’backs ending the nightmare that has been the closing run of Chad Qualls. At the same time, manager A.J. Hinch indicated that he will use Heilman when he is needed most based on the game situation, so he could still pitch in the 7th or 8th innings. With as bad as that pen has been, they might see if they can find a way to get Heilman to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innings each night.

Am I the only one out there fellas that hates shaving everyday? Wait, I don’t have to do that because I have one of the coolest jobs in the world. Don’t spread this around either, but I also wear slippers to work on some days. How bad do you want to be me right now?

Never known as a power bat, Howie Kendrick has 18 RBI in his last 14 games for the Angels. Kendrick knocked in 61 runs last season, a career best, and is currently on pace for 101 this season. Of course, you know these things have a way of evening out which is why it’s hardly surprising to see that he is batting only .273 this season (career .297).

People always wonder what my thoughts are on players – at least that’s what I tell myself even if there are only three of you out there who continue to submit questions from various email addresses. For those of you that do care about my thoughts, or simply would like to see some analysis of pitchers Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Matt Talbot and C.J. Wilson, the link to The Chopping Block is one that you’ll want to click on.

I’m sitting here staring out the window thinking about my plans for Wednesday night. Since my life is always private – when have I ever written or talked about it (wink, wink) – I’ll simply state I’m looking forward to it about as much as Matt Holliday is looking forward to hitting second in front of Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and that’s a lot.

Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have been flipped in the Phillies rotation meaning Moyer will pitch Wednesday and Kendrick Thursday. Since both will face the Yankees you shouldn’t have either active regardless of when they are on the bump.

Speaking of the Phillies, the latest report seems to suggest that Jimmy Rollins (calf) might still be a year, I mean a week, away from returning. I got confused there and thought we were talking about Brian Roberts.

By Ray Flowers

Braun’s Brilliance

A year after being a bit unsure about this guy because of his lack of patience and a whole bunch of strikeouts, I’m finally sold on the superlative slugger from the Brewers. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t a naysayer last year, but I did have my doubts about whether or not he could be a top-10 fantasy performer (I was thinking more like top-20). Turns out I was wrong. I think Ryan Braun could go 30/30 this year, he seems a fair bet to at go 30/20 as he did last season, and if he continues to show growth in his plate discipline he could rival Albert Pujols in the Triple Crown categories. Given that, I thought it might be fun to compare Pujols and Braun’s first three seasons in the league to one another, though remember that Braun was called up late in 2007 and appeared in only 117 games as a rookie while Pujols appeared in 161 games in his freshman season.

Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a .363 OBP and .574 SLG in 1,697 ABs

Pujols: .334-114-381-367-28 with a .412 OBP and .613 SLG in 1,771 ABs

OK, Braun clearly comes up short, but Pujols does arguably own the greatest three season run to open a career of any man who has ever played the game. Therefore, let’s lower the bar a bit and compare Braun’s first three season to some of the best hitters of recent memory to see how he stacks up. In order to make this comparison fair to everyone, I’ll list each players first three “full seasons” in the bigs since no one hits .324 with 34 homers in their rookie season as Braun did. This gives “the field” an advantage over Braun whose numbers come from his true rookie season and following two campaigns. Can anyone use that edge to best Braun’s barometer of success?

Miguel Cabrera: .318-92-342-319-15 with a .394 OBP and .547 SLG in 1,792 ABs

Prince Fielder: .276-112-302-277-12 with a .372 OBP and .536 SLG in 1,730 ABs

Todd Helton: .336-102-358-30-15 with a .415 OBP and .607 SLG in 1,688 ABs

Matt Holliday: .326-89-338-307-35 with a .387 OBP and .571 SLG in 1,171 ABs

Manny Ramirez: .315-90-307-278-16 with a .405 OBP, .559 SLG in 1,595 ABs

Alex Rodriguez: .322-101-331-364-90 with a .375 OBP and .562 SLG in 1,874 ABs

Mark Teixeira: .282-107-340-279-9 with a .362 SLG and .541 SLG in 1,718 ABs

Chase Utley: .310-82-310-328-40 with a .388 OBP and .543 SLG in 1,731 ABs

David Wright: .314-83-325-308-71 with a .396 OBP and .534 SLG in 1,761 ABs

———-

Ryan Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a 363/.574/.937 line in 1,697 ABs

Braun is the only player surveyed, other than Pujols and Teixeira, whose production is from his first three seasons in the bigs, while all others were from their first three “full seasons.”

So what does all of this mean? A couple of points stand out.

(1) Braun’s combination of batting average and home runs is nearly unmatched by any of the games current crop of stars. Only Braun, Helton and A-Rod hit at least .305 with 100 homers.

(2) Only A-Rod and Wright can match Braun’s 5×5 talents across the board.

(3) Braun is off to a start that, if not for Albert Pujols, could legitimately be called the best three season run to start a major league players career in 15 years. Sign me up for some bratwursts and Braun Milwaukee as there is little doubt in my mind that he is the top option in the outfield for fantasy leagues in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.16, 2010

(1) Chien-Ming Wang signs with Nationals: 1-year, $2 million ($3M in incentives).

(2) Chase Utley getting faster on the bases?

(3) Russell Branyan to Indians?

(4) Johnny Damon still talking with Tigers.

(5) Geovany Soto loses 40 lbs., stops junk food.

(6) Jose Reyes back at practice, looks good.

(7) Cody Ross wins arbitration case with Marlins, will make $4.45 million in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Three in One

Today I will discuss the signing of the biggest bat on the free agent mark, a minor deal for two spare parts, and a player re-upping with his squad after a fine all-around season in 2009.

Holliday Remains with Cardinals
How does he do it? Super agent Scott Boras got the Cardinals to bid against themselves, and the result was a 7-year, $120 million deal for Matt Holliday. The deal is for $17 million a year – slightly better than the $16.5 million Jason Bay’s deal with the Mets is for – and it includes a full no-trade clause. I hate Boras, but I tell you this; if I was a player he would certainly be my agent. I guess the Cardinals determined they could afford to dump more than $40 million a year on Holliday and Albert Pujols to strike fear into opponents from the center of their lineup (Pujols’ contract is coming up), but we’ll have to see if it hampers their ability to construct a team around their dynamic duo. One last note. If Holliday finishes in the top-10 in NL MVP voting in the 7th year of the deal an option for $17 million kicks in for an eighth season. Hopefully the fans in St. Louis can forgive him for trying to use his cup as a glove in the playoffs against the Dodgers. To spare Mr. Holliday I will not post a link to the failed catch, though it certainly isn’t hard to find online. For more on the Holliday signing click on the link to Holliday Signs with Cardinals.

Kotchman Traded for Hall
A deal that will reverberate for the next, oh, two days, was completed on Tuesday as the Mariners sent Bill Hall to the Red Sox in exchange for Casey Kotchman. Here is the upside of the deal which, surprisingly, has some extended ramifications.

1- Kotchman, a slick fielder, should make about $5 million in arbitration this year. His addition to the Mariners signals that slugger Russell Branyan won’t be returning to the Pacific Northwest. Kotchman hit .268 with seven homers and 48 RBI last season for the Braves and Red Sox in 385 at-bats. He is a doubles hitter who could push .300 if things broke right, but he doesn’t have the bat of your traditional first baseman.

2- Even with the move of Kotchman out of town, the Red Sox still don’t seem to have any plans for Mike Lowell. The Sox, who acquired Adrian Beltre earlier in the week, you can see me break down that signing in Beltre to Join Red Sox, will go with Beltre at third, Kevin Youkilis at first and David Ortiz at DH. Look for Lowell to be dealt at some point once spring training begins (you can keep up on the latest news at the Baseball Guy’s Twitter Page ).

3- As for Hall… some of us will fondly remember his massive 2006 season (.270-35-85-101-8), but since that time he has regressed, and substantially, the past couple of seasons. Last year he hit a mere .201 with eight homers in 334 at-bats for the Brewers and the Mariners, and that .596 OPS was simply ghastly. Hall is versatile, he can play second, third and the outfield, but he must be on the bench when there is a righty on the on the hill (.186/.261/.328 in 204 at-bats last season). He is a fine 25th man for a club like the Red Sox, just don’t expect him to become fantasy relevant with this move.

Gutierrez Signs 4-Year Deal with Mariners
Franklin Gutierrez parlayed a fine 2008 season into a 4-year, $20.5 million deal with the Mariners. You might be thinking to yourself something akin to ‘really, they gave that guy $20 mil? Where’s my glove?’ but the truth is that Gutierrez is better than you probably think. He finished near the top of many defensive metrics last season flashing great skill on defense, and though he hit a mere .283-18-70-85-16 last season, the totality of those numbers are actually very impressive. Here is a quote lifted directly from my Breaking Down: Franklin Gutierrez piece from October 27th, 2009. “In 2009, Franklin Gutierrez was one of only nine men who managed to hit at least .280 with 18 homers, 70 RBI, 85 runs and 15 steals, and one of just four full-time outfielders to pull off the trick.” Like I said, better than you thought right?

By Ray Flowers

Holliday Balking at Cardinals Offer?

Matt Holliday has apparently been offered $130 million over eight years to rejoin the Cardinals. Why won’t he accept the deal and return to the club?

By Ray Flowers

My Grown Up X-Mas List

This is the most wonderful time of the year. Besides being lyrics from a song, it is also how I feel. I love Halloween, I gussie the place all up with scary sounds, figures, even had a fog machine cranking this year, but I still love the Christmas season the most. I even enjoy, and don’t share this with anyone, hot chocolate and those sappy holiday movies that they play on Lifetime (did I just lose my street cred?).

Before I head out to spend the next couple of days with my extended family, I thought I would list a few things that I hope people in the sports world will either find in their stocking or under their tree come Christmas morning (for those of you who don’t celebrate Christmas, Happy Holidays).

To the San Jose Sharks: Playoff success to avoid a mutiny amongst the fans.

To the 49ers and the Raiders: A winning season. Heck, even an 8-8 mark would be terrific.

To Grady Sizemore, Jose Reyes, Coco Crisp, Erik Bedard, Troy Glaus and Josh Hamilton: A full season of health. If you missed my review of the Glaus to Atlanta signing, click on Glaus Signs With Braves.

To Matt Holliday: I hope your agent, the reviled Scott Boras, can deliver the goods on what he surely promised would be a deal approaching $150 million. Right now it doesn’t seem like anyone has any interest in ponying up dollars that even remotely approach that total.

To Johnny Damon: Another Boras client, I wish him. Heck, I don’t wish him much of anything as he already has a beautiful wife to come home to.

To Brandon Morrow: I hope Santa brings you a heaping helping of control for the holiday. I’m still shocked that the Mariners gave up you so easily. You can read my analysis of the trade in The Other Deal.

To the New York Yankees: I wish you — well my mother told me if I didn’t have something nice to say then I shouldn’t say it, and in the spirit of the season I’m gonna stick to that. I will list a few of my “Tweets” from the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page that should make what I think pretty obvious.

“Yankees payroll last season was $220 mil, $77.8 mil MORE than any other club. In fact, MORE than 11 other teams payrolls!”

“Yankees only team to pay luxury tax in 2009 – $25.7 mil. They have paid all seven years of existence, $174 of $190 raised overall.”

To the San Francisco Giants: I wish you a heart like the Tin Man in the Wizard of Oz. Hell, I wish that you also had courage like the Cowardly Lion and a brain like the Scarecrow. Are you really going to just sit there knowing full well that your offense is putrid and do nothing to improve it? Newsflash, 2-years and $12 million for Mark DeRosa likely won’t be enough for a guy who thinks he is worth 3/$30 (even if he isn’t worth that). Do something big will ya Giants? Wait, wasn’t I supposed to keep this positive? Sorry for slipping.

To Garrett Atkins: I wish a return to prominence from the one-time borderline star. I’m not talking a return to his previously phat totals (.329-29-130-117 in 2006), but a nice .285-25-85 season would be great.

To Justin Duchscherer: I wish him peace. I hope he returns to prominence on the field, be it as a reliever or a starter, and I hope he got the help he needed to deal with his clinical depression. In fact, I wish the same for Joey Votto who also dealt with some tough times after losing his father.

At this time of year it’s good to remember what is truly important in life. Homers and shutouts are great, but it’s people that truly matter. So give thanks, wish someone a happy holiday season, and don’t be afraid to extend a helping hand to someone who might need it. Tis’ the season to be jolly remember?

BREAKING DOWN MATT CAPPS TO NATS

By Ray Flowers

More of the Same

Today is more of the same, and by that I mean I’m going to break down a handful of the players whose names are in the news as free agents looking to strike it rich.

The Braves need to move salary, and their goal is to move Derek Lowe and the 3-years, and $45 million left on his deal. As you might expect, they haven’t found any takers on the contract so they are apparently considering moving Javier Vazquez and his $11.5 million deal, potentially to the Angels. This would be a bad baseball move for the Braves. Sure Vazquez is coming off a career best season of a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 238 Ks, but he was their best pitcher last year and is about as consistent an arm as you could ever hope to find once you leave the ranks of the superstars. The move might make financial sense, especially since the Braves appear highly unlikely to sign him to an extension when his deal runs out at the end of the 2010 season, but on the field, not so much. As for Lowe, here is what he said when asked by the media about the Braves apparent desire to move him after his worst season since 2004 (4.67 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). “I don’t think it’s a matter of if anymore. It’s just a matter of when… “Nobody made them give me a four-year, $60 million contract. There wasn’t a ransom or anybody holding a gun to their heads… I would have never even considered going there if I knew that ultimately this was going to happen.” I don’t know if I believe that, we are taking about $60 million, but Lowe certainly has a point. If the Braves were going to bail on him if he had a rough couple of months, why did they bother signing him in the first place?

Some other rumors —

Looks like Nick Johnson will be headed to the Yankees. The latest report says that he is on the verge of signing a one year deal for about $5.5 million. As I wrote on BaseballGuys’ Twitter page today – “Yankees want a DH that can play the field, show athleticism. Of course, my first thoughts go to Nick Johnson.” It’s a bit of an odd signing and one that might signal that Johnny Damon will be in a new uni in 2010.

After apparently losing out on Johnson, the Giants are still in need of a corner infield bat. A name that continues to be linked to them, more because of need than because of the probability of a deal actually being struck, is Adrian Beltre. Though his stick failed last season (.265-8-44), Beltre can still hit .270 with 20 homers, and he plays a fine third base. Problem is he wants something like 4-years and $40 million, and though I have no inside knowledge of the Giants front office, I can’t think they would get within $10 million of that figure.

The Cardinals likely won’t be able to bring back utility man Mark DeRosa. Seems like the player, and his agent, have grown a bit weary of waiting for the Cardinals to decide what they are going to do with Matt Holliday. In an odd twist, the Cardinals appear to be tiring of the delay with Holliday who continues to dry to squeeze them for more dough. Is it possible that they could end up with neither player in 2010? Looks possible at this point. Could DeRosa end up with the Giants? Certainly could happen if they are willing to give him the $30 million I suggested as a potential figure with Beltre.

Ricky Nolasco signed a 1-year, $3.8 million deal to remain with the Marlins. This is a good singing for a guy who was really unlucky last season (.336 BABIP despite a 9.49 K/9 mark and a 4.43 K/BB rate). Now the club will turn its sights to Josh Johnson who wants something like $42 million, basically double the $23 million that the Fish have reportedly offered. That’s a pretty wide gulf to cross.

By Ray Flowers