Winter Meetings Update

I love the Winter Meetings. In fact, I’ve combined the event with Twitter to form a duo kind of like peanut butter and jelly. I admit it. I’m addicted now. I wake up in the middle of the night thinking ‘I’m sure the readers would love to hear that thought.’ Don’t worry, I keep a pad by my bed to write down the thoughts that hit me when most of the U.S. is counting candy canes in their sleep.

* Still reeling over the Three-team Blockbuster Deal between the Tigers, Yankees and D’backs? You can read my breakdown of the deal by clicking on the link, but there is still something I don’t get – why did the D’backs enter this deal as the third team? I think they will rue the day that they let Max Scherzer go for Edwin Jackson. Maybe I’m wrong here, but honestly, I have a hard time believing that. Whether Scherzer is a top of the rotation arm, or a closer (a potential given his somewhat violent delivery), as long as his arm doesn’t fly off I see this kid being something special.

* John Lackey is regarded by all as the top free agent hurler on the market. However, it doesn’t seem likely that anyone is going to fall all over themselves to throw $100 million his way. In fact, he might have to wait a bit and hope someone gets a bit desperate to hit that figure.

* I wrote yesterday how I thought it was a ruse that Rafael Soriano would accept the Braves arbitration offer in What a Great Monday. Turns out I’ve got that proverbial egg on my face as he did just that. As a result, the Braves are facing the prospect of having to trade Soriano or spend roughly a fifth of their entire payroll on Soriano, Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. Soriano has already submitted a group of teams he would like to join with one possible destination being the Orioles who have already mentioned their intention to acquire a closer.

Have heard barely a peep dealing with Matt Holliday. The other big bopper, Jason Bay, appears to be on the short list for teams such as the Red Sox, Mariners and Angels, the club from Anaheim emerging in the last 24 hours as a potentially serious player.

I’m still completely blown away by the Cardinals give Brad Penny $7.5 million with incentives that could take the deal to $9 million. My question is a simple one – why?

If Ivan Rodriguez can get a 2-year deal for $6 million from the Nationals to be a part-timer, why are people freaking that Jason Kendall wants $5 to be a full-time starter? In an odd twist, he might get that starting role by joining Pudge’s old club, the Rangers.

Why are the Brewers looking to trade Corey Hart? Here is a direct quote from my Twitter page. “The Brewers seem intent on moving Corey Hart, though I don’t really know why. Haven’t they heard adage – buy low, sell high?”

Milton Bradley continues to have his name involved in more rumors than just about anyone else. Guess teams are really interested in adding a guy who can’t stay healthy, wears out his welcome in about four months, and constantly torments fans and teammates with his off putting attitude. Only in America can a guy like that make more money in a year, over $10 million, than 99 percent of us will make in our entire lives.

The Giants have been linked to names like Adrian Beltre, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Nick Johnson and Orlando Hudson. The club would prefer to have Pablo Sandoval to play third, but he could easily slide over to first if a third baseman is brought to town. The club could also move Freddy Sanchez over to third if they were to sign a second baseman like Hudson, but a year after struggling for any pop, do they really want a third baseman who is likely to hit about 10 bombs in Sanchez?

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Outfield

The outfield is the land of multi-category producing titans. The 2009 season was no different, though some of the men that were expected to provide those efforts failed to do so. In what follows I will discuss my top-10 list from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season, and briefly hit on how each players season turned out.

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

1. Grady Sizemore

2. Carlos Beltran

3. Josh Hamilton

4. Ryan Braun

5. Ichiro Suzuki

6. Carl Crawford

7. Manny Ramirez

8. Matt Holliday

9. Alex Rios

10. B.J. Upton

Sizemore was derailed by injury, chiefly a strained elbow that required surgery (he also had hernia surgery). His performance simply killed teams that drafted him in the first round (.248-18-64-73-13) with all his 5×5 numbers being five year lows as he appeared in a mere 106 games.

Beltran has a lost season like so many other Mets. The chief injury was a bone bruise in his leg, more specifically his knee. As a result he appeared in just 81 games though he was exceedingly effective in his half season of work hitting a robust .325 with 10 homers, 48 RBI, 50 runs and 11 steals. Clearly he was on pace for a special season, but alas, injuries ruined his effort.

Hamilton had a bummer of a season that he kicked off with a wild bender during spring training that was kept under wraps (as a recovering addict, this was especially damaging news). I never thought he would repeat the 130 RBI, but I thought the 30-HR pop was certainly legit. Injuries limited him to just 89 games as he hit 10 homers with 54 RBI and a .741 OPS, only .160 points below his 2008 mark. Has a ton to prove in ’10.

Braun was a flat out stud and seems certain to be a top-5 selection in 2010 in almost every draft. Not only did he lead the NL with 203 hits, Braun also socked 32 long balls, drove in 114 runs, hit .320 and stole 20 bases. Not many have a legit shot at hitting .333 while going 20/20.

Suzuki started slowly due to injury, but you would never have known it if you looked at his final numbers that included 225 hits and a .352 average. Amazingly, the sorry Mariners only knocked him in 88 times on the year, and his steal total of 26 was actually a career worst, though no one should complain when you hit .352.

Crawford was an outright beast hitting .305 with 15 homers, 68 RBI, 96 runs and a career best 60-steals. Only one AL player bettered that steals total – Jacoby Ellsbury with 70, and he scored two less runs, hit only eight homers, and batted four points lower at .301.

Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for performance enhancing drugs, and with that his season was a bust. At the time of his suspension he was doing his best Albert Pujols impersonation hitting .355 with a 1.156 OPS through 36 games, but he returned to his a mere .255 with only 10 homers and 34 RBI in 68 games.

Holliday was, as I wrote prior to the start of last season in the aforementioned magazine, terrific. “He won’t be the Coors version of Holliday, but he should still be near the elite.” Compare his 2008 performance in Coors (.321-25-88-107-28) to his 2009 work in Oakland and St. Louis (.313-24-109-94-14). Seems like I hit this one out of the park.

Rios was an unmitigated disaster. Simply atrocious. Though he nearly went 20/20 (17 homers, 24 steals), he hit a paltry .247 with only 17 homers and 71 RBI. After his trade to the White Sox he apparently forgot how to play baseball as 41 games in Chicago netted a .199 average, nine RBI and 11 runs scored. Pathetic.

B.J. was the wrong Upton to place on the list. B.J. floundered to a .241 average with 11 homers, 55 RBI, 79 runs and 42 steals, while younger brother Justin simply tore it up in the desert on his way to hitting .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 84 runs and 20 steals.

By Ray Flowers

Rumor Central – Turkey Style

Now that I’ve worked through my turkey induced coma (not that I’m complaining mind you), I thought it would be wise to take a look around the landscape of major league baseball and give my thoughts on a few of the players who are rumored to be on the move either through trades or by signing with a new team do to their free agent status.

Orlando Cabrera: With the recent signing of other shortstops to decent sized deals, you would have to think that Cabrera is in line for at least a nice two year deal. Hell, Jack Wilson got 2-years and $10 million from the Mariners. Wilson is a fine defensive player, but he can’t hold Cabrera’s jock as an offensive weapon. Consider that Cabrera has hit at least .281 with 83 runs and 171 hits in each of his last four seasons. Wilson? He has hit .281 twice in his career, has never scored more than 82 runs and has only once eclipsed 171 hits in his nine years. How could Cabrera not get at least $10 mil armed with those facts?

Jermaine Dye: Jermaine has socked at least 27 homers with 78 or more RBI in each of the last five seasons. However, he will be 36 in January and hit a pathetic .179 with seven homers over his final 212 ABs causing a lot of teams some trepidation. Dye has attempted to rectify that feeling by offering to play first base to increase his versatility on the field, and it might be working. Rumors are swirling that he could end up in Texas or sign on the dotted with the Orioles, Giants, Mets or Braves. He still has 25 homer pop, but he might find it difficult to put up big time totals outside of the hitters’ haven that is U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago.

Roy Halladay: The biggest name on the market, every day seems to bring a new rumor (he has most often been linked to the Red Sox, Angels and Yankees – of course). What seems obvious is that the Jays are almost certain to move him and that the return will be plentiful for one of the top-5 hurlers in the game.

Matt Holliday: The top hitter on the market, Holliday appears rather content to go to the club that offers him the most loot – hardly and oddity considering that Scott Boras is his agent. He will break the bank with a flooring of $100 million merely being enough to get a conversation started.

Edwin Jackson: Coming off a career season (13-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Jackson’s name has been mentioned in a series of potential deals since the season ended. The Tigers need to cut payroll, Detroit has been especially hard hit with the economic downturn, and it looks like Jackson is their most moveable chip. It might also have something to do with his second half implosion (5.07 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .290 BAA). Buyer beware here – we may look back on ’09 as a career best effort.

Ben Sheets: Floating out there after missing last year do to arm surgery. The Mets and Orioles appear to be the most interested in the moment, though many teams would bite at the right price (just as they would with Erik Bedard). It remains to be seen just what Sheets has left, but he posted a 3.09 ERA and a 1.15 ERA in 198.1 innings in 2008 and is one mighty intriguing option as a short-term, discounted pickup.

Marco Scutaro: Marco will not be back with the Blue Jays who seemed intent on moving on since the season concluded. To that end, they signed defensively gifted but offensively ineffective John MacDonald to a 2-year, $3 million deal. They then entered the free agent market and picked up Alex Gonzalez on a 1-year, $2.75 million deal. Gonzalez is also a fine defensive shortstop, and though he has some pop and offers more offense than MacDonald, he hit only .238 with 41 RBI for the Red Sox and Reds last season. I have no idea what Scutaro will eventually sign for, but seems to me that the Blue Jays could have offered him $4.25 a year (what they paid to the other two) on a multi year deal and had a chance to bring back a guy who, in the very least, will dwarf the others in his ability to get on base (he had a .379 OBP last year).

Billy Wagner: It looks like multiple teams are throwing their hats into the Wagner sweepstakes. This is hardly a shock given his track record and success last season when he returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 1.72 ERA while racking up 26 punchouts in a mere 15.2 innings. He could end up as a dominating setup man or a 1-year closer depending on who he signs with. The 38 year old still deserves serious consideration on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Debate Anyone?

Today I’ll hit on a couple of options for the AL Rookie of the Year, discuss a pitcher who is slowly fading, and then discuss which of two top-flight options I would choose to hold on to for the 2010 season.

Elvis Andrus has had a wonderful season for the Rangers, but please, stop the Rookie of the Year talk. Andrus is hitting .267 with a .325 OBP, and both those numbers are below average for an AL player. Plus, he has no pop at the dish with six homer and 34 RBI, and though he plays a tough position (shortstop), his 22 errors are tied with Orlando Cabrera’s total for the worst mark in the American League. If I’m making the call, and face it they would never let me because I would actually make a rationally, cogent argument based on a foundation of data and not merely some asinine arbitrary argument that others will use, the answer is Andrew Bailey of the A’s. When Joey Devine went down with elbow surgery, and Brad Ziegler struggled, Bailey was thrust into the closers role in Oakland, and he has performed spectacularly: 6-3, 1.93 ERA, 0.91 WHIP with a 9.87 K/9 mark and 25 saves. In addition, he has blown only four chances this season, and he has been as good in the second half (1.95 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) as the first half (1.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). That’s good stuff my friends.

Scott Feldman gave up seven runs while recording just 10 outs against the A’s on Thursday to drop to 17-6 while seeing his ERA increase to 3.90. This is the second time in three outings that he has allowed at least six earned runs in an outing, and the second time in those three starts that he was saddled with a loss, this after seven straight victories. I’m amazed he has hung on this long. He has no strikeout potential, he pitches for the Rangers, and he owned a 4.97 ERA and 1.48 ERA in 241 innings coming into the year.

I write a piece every week entitled Taking Sides, and there was one battle I didn’t get to there that I thought I would touch on here (the basic idea is to choose which player would I prefer to have on my squad in 2010).

Matt Holliday: .312-24-104-91-14 in 554 ABs
Ryan Braun: .315-29-103-105-16 in 588 ABs

Matt Holliday was hitting .286 with 11 homers and 54 RBI in 93 games with the A’s this season, and the only thing he was doing at previous levels was stealing bases (he had 12). Flash forward a couple of months, and lo and behold Holliday is back to being a stud. In just 55 games with the Cards Holliday has 13 homer and 50 RBI basically matching his A’s totals in 38 fewer games. He has also hit a blistering .356 in the NL. Seems like St. Louis suits him. All told, He is just nine runs from his fourth straight 100 effort, and he has now gone over 100 RBI in three of four years while his .312 batting average is just six points below his career mark.

Braun is a stud in his own right. In just three seasons Braun has hit at least .285 with at least 29 homers, 97 RBI, 91 runs and 14 steals in every season. This year he has walked a career-high 56 times leading to a .384 OBP, a career best, which has helped to offset his three year low of .541 in the SLG department (still a strong mark). Oh, and don’t even think about pitching to him if you are left-handed, he simply demolishes those guys: .414/.496/.766 in 111 at-bats. That’s ripping it up. What makes him an intriguing play is the fact that he has swiped at least 14 bags in each of his three big league seasons (his rookie season was just 118 games by the way).

Whose Side?: If Holliday stays in St. Louis, he is a free agent, I would be greatly intrigued at the potential of holding on to Holliday. However, until the time that he is locked up by the Redbirds, the choice here has to be Braun who has been about as consistent as any player in baseball in his first three seasons in the show (my apologies to Albert Pujols).

By Ray Flowers

Free Agency – A Look Ahead

With the season nearing it’s conclusion, at least from a fantasy perspective, I thought I would look forward to the 2010 season, something that Mike Sheets in Under the Tag, and Ted Carlson in Five Tool Blog have started to do. I’ll take a bit of a different take not listing my top-10′s or top-30 overall but instead I’ll hit on a some of the free agents out there that could be plying their trade for a new team come next season.

Carlos Delgado: Looks like his ’09 season might end with a mere 94 at-bats on the back of his ball card do to that right hip surgery. He hit 38 homers with 115 RBI last season but he will be 38 next year and hit just 24 home runs while batting .258 in 2007. He’ll have to sign an incentive laden deal, perhaps to DH.

Adam LaRoche: Again one of the hottest hitters in the game in the second half (.314-9-24 with a .919 OPS in 44 games). Maybe he should start training really hard in January so that he could hit like this in the first half. No reason the Braves don’t bring him back.

Placido Polanco: Anyone out there looking for the prototypical #2 hitter? His average has slipped this season (.277 versus a career .303 mark), but he is on the cusp of a career-high in RBI (just four short with 63) while producing another excellent contact rate (0.93 do to only 35 strikeouts on the year). This is likely as good as it gets at this point, but that isn’t all that bad is it?

Miguel Tejada: A huge question mark this coming offseason. Is Tejada the man who hit .329 with a .830 OPS in the first half of the aging/slowing veteran who has hit just .255 with a .645 OPS since the All-Star break? Might end up at third base wherever he signs.

Adrian Beltre: Wear a cup Adrian. That’s all I have to say.

Chone Figgins: Not the prototypical corner infielder since he has an almost total lack of pop. Still, don’t know of many teams that would turn away a .300 hitting, 40 steal, 100 run option at the top of their lineup.

Melvin Mora: Trying to prove that he still has some game left in that soon to be 38 year old body of his. After a pathetic first half (.259/.326/.335) he has been pretty solid the past two weeks (.405-3-7 in 11 games).

Jason Bay: The Sox won’t let him go, not after another big-time offensive season (.261-31-98-87-12 in just 456 ABs).

Johnny Damon: Will he remain with the Yankees? Since he scores 90 runs every year and will be coming off the best power season of his career he will likely get one more major dollar deal. Still, he is likely best suited for DH at this stage of his career. My brother’s 16 month old daughter almost throws as well.

Matt Holliday: A Scott Boras client, Holliday has hit like Stan Musial since joining the Birds (.378-11-39-31 with a 1.125 OPS in 156 ABs). Don’t know the last time you checked, but in case you hadn’t heard, Boras is the biggest pain in the a – - in the universe, that is if you are a team trying to sign a player. Boras/Holliday won’t be giving the Red Birds a discount, and Boras will get his man the money he “deserves” on the market. Still, the Cardinals simply can’t let him go can they?

Jermaine Dye: Five straight years of at least 25 homers and 75 RBI (once he knocks in three more runs this year), Dye is as consistent a run producing right fielder as there is in the game. He will be 36 in June but he should still have a few productive years left despite his profound struggles of late (.184 in his last 185 ABs).

Vlad Guerrero: Injured to start the year Vlad has been, well Vlad, hitting .298 with a .904 OPS since the All-Star break. He may be limited to DH duties the rest of his career but the man can still hit .300 with 25 home runs if healthy.

Aubrey Huff: Hasn’t lived up to last season’s huge effort (.304-32-108-96) and has looked lost at the plate of late (he has hit just .215 over his last 44 games and .210 since the start of August). He’ll be hard pressed to sign a deal that exceeds a couple of years at anything remotely approaching his current level of pay ($8 million).

By Ray Flowers

For Your Consideration

Monday. The euphoria of the trade deadline bonanza has passed, and now we are back to the “real world” of day-to-day baseball. Today I thought I would touch on a few of the more interesting storylines currently floating around the baseball universe including the odd tale of a seemingly delusion third baseman in Baltimore.

Melvin Mora said this over the weekend if you missed it. “I think I deserve more respect than what I’m getting here,” Mora said. “Don’t give me excuses that I can’t beat Smoltz or I can’t beat Beckett or I can’t beat Lester. I’ve been here nine years. All these guys in the East know me. I’ve made the All-Star team. I deserve respect.” We agree with you Mr. Mora, and if someone is spitting in your face or disparaging your family, then by all means speak up. However, what are we talking about here? Mr. Mora, you are hitting .256 with three home runs and 27 RBI in 285 ABs. How does that compare to the average major league third baseman? Check it:

.269-7-29.

Yes Mr. Mora, you haven’t even been a league average third basemen, so if you feel disrespected, well, how about you start hitting like a major league regular or just shut your pie hole.

Who are they trying to kid? Roy Oswalt had his start pushed back because of a back issue. Now his Saturday start is likely also to be missed as he continues to suffer some pain in the area. Just put him on the DL and let him take the two weeks guys, seems like that’s the way this is going to go so instead of frustrating everyone. Just pull the trigger on the DL stint.

There has been some talk of Albert Pujols and a run at the Triple Crown. Pujols has a two home run lead over Mark Reynolds for the home run lead (34 to 32) in the National League and he is one RBI behind Prince Fielder for the NL RBI lead with 92. However, after hitting just .289 in 97 July at-bats Pujols is down to .314, the eighth best mark in the NL. Given that he has never hit below .314 in a season, plus the addition of Matt Holliday to help him out in the middle of the Cards lineup, Pujols would appear to have a great shot to push that average much closer to .333 by the end of the year (his career average). As mentioned he also is right there in homers and RBI, but in this day and age of offense and specialization, it’s a tall order to expect any man to be able to lead the league in average, home runs and RBI, but if any man can, it’s got to be Pujols. Still, the last man to win the mythical award in the NL was another Cardinal, Joe Medwick, who in 1937, that’s right before the Second World War, hit .374 with 31 home runs and 154 RBI. The last player in the AL? How about Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 when Yaz produced a line of .326-44-121 for the Red Sox.

Brandon Webb is done for 2009 and may not be ready for 2010 after undergoing a “debridement” procedure on his shoulder. What the hell is a debridement? It’s a medical procedure that removes non-healthy tissue and any foreign materials. What that basically means is that they went in and cleaned up his shoulder without needing to do anything invasive. It’s not clear if his labrum or rotator cuff was the central focus of the surgery, but what is clear is that I find it almost impossible to believe that the club will pick up his $8.5 million option for next season. More than likely, the D’backs will give Webb his $1.5 million buyout and see if they can sign him to an incentive laden deal. Given the reluctance of the team to do just that prior to the start of the season because of concerns with his health, it’s certainly not at all out of the realm of possibility that Webb has tossed his last game for the club.

By Ray Flowers

Monday Mailbag Mania

We all have questions. Some relate to what to wear or what to do with that snooty boss, while others are directed toward what type of libation they will be sipping on when the day ends? Alas, this is a baseball blog, so the questions we will answer here pertain to the diamond.

I am in a keeper league where I can keep up to 5 players.

Our league has a position for C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF, CF and UTL. Our scoring system includes- hits, Runs, HR, RBI, K, SB and fielding percentages. Can you please let me know who you would keep from the list below?

Geovany Soto, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton
Bench- Carlos Beltran and Ryan Doumit
* I have great SP’s but I do not ever keep pitchers.

I traded throughout the year to get David Wright, Sizemore and Hamilton. My original thought is to keep Ramirez, Wright, Sizemore, Morneau and Hamilton. I like to keep younger players since it is a keeper league but I hate to lose Holliday.
– Bryan

What a club. That is just about the most awesome compilation of talent any league has either seen. Either (a) your pitching is atrocious, (b) you made some very astute deals, or (c) there are only six teams in your league. Here are my thoughts on who I would keep, in reverse order.

5 – Justin Morneau
How many fantasy gamers would complain about a guy who owns a career .285 mark and has produced at least 84 runs and 111 RBI in 4-straight years? If he keeps up his current pace he will make it 4-straight years.

4 – Grady Sizemore
It was either Grady or Carlos Beltran. If both were healthy they would both be up for consideration, 20/20 seasons just aren’t that easy to find. Still, with the breakdown of players in your lineup per position (LF, CF, RF), I can’t suggest keeping both since they both play CF. With Morneau as the UT there is only room for one of the CF’s on your club. Sizemore does strike out a ton, but given that he is younger he is the choice here.

3 – Matt Holliday
Hitting .636 as a Cardinal and .380 since July first, Holliday has his overall numbers up to .297-11-57-54-13 this season. What that means is that despite an abysmal start that he has a shot of a 20/20 season with a .300 batting average. Also, if he signs long-term with the Cards, hitting next to Pujols for the next five or whatever years, they have a word for that and it’s Yahtzee! Holliday may not be a 35-140 guy, but I could easily see a .300-30-100-100-15 season next year in St. Louis, can’t you? Not may left fielders in baseball can rival that.

2 – David Wright
A completely up and down season. Some will see the paltry six home runs, I see the 21 steals. Some will see the .218 July average, I see the .318 overall mark. The bottom line is that the home run dip is an anomaly, no way that a guy who owns a HR/F rate of 14 percent in his career can reasonably be expected to continue along his current 6.1 percent rate.

1 – Hanley Ramirez
The second most consistent player in the game? He won’t score 115 runs for the fourth straight season, and he won’t steal 30 bases for a fourth straight year either, but when you are hitting .348, are on pace for a 20/20 effort and play shortstop, your still a flat out stud.

David Price and Aaron Harang are killing me. Jonathan Sanchez is available. So are Joe Blanton and John Lannan. Drop either/both, and if so, who should I pick up?
– Jim

David Price: 3-4 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, Price has been a disaster. He does have a 9.17 K/9 mark, but with a 5.60 BB/9 mark he just hasn’t been able to have success or go deep into games.

Aaron Harang: Over his last six starts Harang is 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA. Moreover, he has lost his last seven decisions to drop his overall mark to 5-11. His 7.80 K/9 mark is strong, as is his 3.67 K/BB mark, but too many homers (1.35 per nine) and an inability to get hitters out (.298 BAA) have been hugely detrimental to his overall performance.

Jonathan Sanchez: Tossed a no-hitter and was added in ever league he was available. However, he hasn’t been remotely solid since with a 6.55 ERA and three homers allowed in his last two starts. Overall he continues to be plagued by an inordinate amount of walks (5.12 per nine) which negates his strikeouts (9.23 K/9) and leads to poor overall performance (4.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).

Joe Blanton: Though he is 7-4 with a 4.11 ERA on the year, Blanton has won his last three decisions and has allowed just four runs in those four outings (1.21 ERA). Overall, his K/9 rate is way up at 7.76, leading to a strong 3.00 K/BB mark.

John Lannan: 5-2 in his last seven decisions, only once in his last 11 starts has Lannan allowed more than three earned runs. That’s an amazingly consistent run of production is it not? The guy doesn’t strike anyone out (3.65 K/9), and therefore his K/BB is awful (1.34), but that sinker of his just keeps on diving leading to a 1.70 G/F rate which has led to all his success.

If you aren’t in a keeper league, Price just doesn’t hold much value right now. As for Harang, too many loses in a row have thrown his value into a tailspin, and Blanton owns the same skill set right now while being on a hot streak. I would drop both pitchers and replace them with Blanton and Lannan, and honestly, I can’t believe I just typed that sentence.

By Ray Flowers

Wanted – Answers

I get email questions all week. It’s a great way for me to interact with you, my faithful readers, and today I thought I would answer a couple of the questions that have come to me the past few days.

What are your thoughts on Brett Anderson the rest of the year? Is he a better pickup than someone like Chad Gaudin?
– Joe, Chrisman, IL

Kyle Elfrink and I talked about Anderson on our Fantasy Buffet podcast on Monday, a show that can be heard live every day, Monday – Friday from 8-9 AM PST. If you want to give it a listen, simply tune in to the show at the link above. I’ll restate what I basically said at the time.

Anderson was great the other day, he took a perfect game into the seventh inning, and over his last three starts he hasn’t allowed a single run while giving up only seven hits in 21 innings. That leaves him with solid AL ratios (4.25 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) though it would be nice to see a few more strikeouts (6.61 K/9 – it was over a batter per inning in his minor league career). He has done a good job throwing strikes, 2.36 BB/9, but he has needed to as he has allowed 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Still, I don’t see much that really stands out here. I’m also a bit concerned by the fact that he has permitted a line drive rate of just 15 percent yet he still has an ERA well above four, partly because of a very low left on base rate of 65.5 percent. If that line drive rate climbs toward the league average (20), his average BABIP (.297) could certainly rise, and if that occurs, without an increase in his LOB mark, well, that ERA could be closer to five than four by the end of the year. He is a solid AL-only option for sure, and one with mixed league relevance, though I certainly wouldn’t think we are looking at the next Mark Mulder based solely on a great 3-game run. Still, he is probably a better bet at this point than Chad Gaudin who despite the impressive K-totals (9.58 K/9), doesn’t throw enough strikes (4.95 BB/9), or flash near the consistency one looks for (in his last nine starts he has allowed two or fewer runs five times but five or more runs three times with a six and an eight run outing mixed in).

I’m in a 10 team league with 5 x 5 scoring. We start five OF, & have to keep two OF. As of now, my keepers are Ichiro & Hawpe. I am looking to pair Hawpe with maybe Chipper for an upgrade and am looking at Justin Upton, Holliday & Markakis. Markakis & Holliday are on the same team & can likely be had easier than Upton. Who should I go after of these three?
– Jim

Keeper questions are always a bit difficult. Are there salaries involved? Is there a contract length for how long you can hold on to players? Etc. Without knowing the answer to those type of things, I’ll just answer with the belief that you can keep the guys for a couple of years, and that there is no salary concern.

(1) You have to keep Ichiro. Period. Not only does he hit .300+ every year, he does so in such a massive amount of at-bats that his production is even more valuable than you would think straight away (an extra 80 at-bats versus a “normal” everyday player with a .320 is huge to a team’s overall mark).

(2) Chipper Jones has little value in a keeper league at this point of his storied career, and he hasn’t looked anything like the hitter we have seen the past three seasons this year.

(3) Trying to parlay Chipper and Brad Hawpe for an upgrade seems like a fine idea. Remember, sell high. Hawpe is a solid 25 HR, 100 RBI guy, but his .324 batting average far exceeds his .288 career mark, and the man has no speed at all.

(4) Nick Markakis has averaged 22 homers, 100 RBI and 102 runs the past two years, and he owns a .298 career average. Unlike a lot of youngsters he also flashes solid strike zone control as evidenced by his .371 career OBP. I don’t think he should be looked at as a 20/20 guy like some hoped, or even a 15/15 guy, but at the same time I could see him hit .300-20-100-100-10 for about the next decade, and that is tremendous.

(5) Justin Upton won’t be 22 until August, and that guy has tons of talent. He is hitting nearly .300 with 13 steals, and the power should grow to the 30-HR level. I still see holes in that swing, and I worry about his brutal defense in the outfield, but he is already a great player, and one who could dominate for years.

(6) Matt Holliday has been awful for three months, and everyone has just forgotten about him. I’ve received a couple of emails the past few days asking me about his value. In fact, one of the emails said that a guy was trying really hard to get the suddenly hot Ryan Ludwick – and if he couldn’t he would try to get Holliday. What? Try to get Holliday as a fall back option? That sounds crazy. Seems to me that everyone has allowed three months of struggling to erase three years of superstar performance. I know he isn’t in Colorado anymore, but really, Ryan Ludwick? I don’t care if he ends up moving to another club or staying in Oakland. If the emails I have received recently are any indication of how Holliday is being viewed out there, I’m all over acquiring that guy at a major discount.

So what would I do? I would offer Hawpe and Chipper for Holliday and ??? – I’d ask for another part because as I stated, I bet Holliday’s current owner is so down on him that he would throw someone else in if it would mean ridding himself of the former Colorado great. If not, targeting Markakis or Upton would also make a lot of sense as they certainly possesses more fantasy upside than Hawpe ever will. Some might rank the guys Upton. Markakis, Holliday, but I have a lot of faith in Matt.

By Ray Flowers