Draft Day Challenge, April 23

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter: @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Salvador Perez
2. Russell Martin

Perez is hitting a poor .188 the past three weeks to drop his season long mark down to .258. He faces Max Scherzer, a tough matchup, though one that he has had ample success with as he’s gone deep twice and has five hits in seven at-bats.

Martin was awful at the start of the season and people were freaking out. He’s turned that all around of late. Martin is hitting .526 the past week with a couple of homers. Things tend to even out eventually.

FIRST BASE
1. Mark Trumbo
2. Adam LaRoche

Trumbo is hitting .350 with a homer the last week, and he’s been solid all year long with a .311 average. He’s also gone 4-for-10 against Alexi Ogando whom he faces on this day.

LaRoche is a slow starter, so maybe it’s tough to trust him, but he has had some success versus Adam Wainwright in his career (.280-1-9 in 25 at-bats).

SECOND BASE
1. Ian Kinsler
2. Jose Altuve

Kinsler is expensive, but he’s worth it given the success he has had against Jason Vargas (.343-1-3 with two steals over 35 at-bats).

Altuve is white hot right now with a .455 batting average over the past two weeks. Will he be able to keep that going against Hisashi Iwakuma who has a 1.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over four starts?

THIRD BASE
1. Mark Reynolds
2. Kyle Seager

Reynolds leads baseball with 10 RBIs against left-handed pitching and he faces Jose Quintana, a lefty, from the White Sox. Reynolds has gone deep three times against lefties though he has hit, a Reynolds-like, .231.

Seager is hitting .276 thanks to hits in 11-straight games. He’s also rapped out seven hits the past three games and has two homers and four RBIs in his past two contests.

SHORTSTOP
1.Yunel Escobar
2. Jean Segura

Escobar has seven hits in 16 at-bats (.438) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Escobar also hit his second homer of the year and had two RBIs Monday night.

Segura is 0-for-3 against Clayton Richard in his career but he also leads baseball on this young season with a .563 batting average in 16 at-bats against left-handed pitching.

OUTFIELD
1. Alex Gordon
2. Matt Joyce

The matchup for Gordon looks sloppy on paper as he faces Max Scherzer. Results though say that Gordon should have a lot of success as he’s hit .389 with a homer in 18 at-bats against the righty. Gordon also enters the game hitting. .342 in April.

Joyce has gone deep twice with five hits in 11 at-bats (.455) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Wait, have I already written that?

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Wade Davis
3. Patrick Corbin
4. Carlos Villanueva

Quintana has 14 strikeouts over 13.2 shutout innings in his last two starts. He’s facing an Indians club that has hit .094 with a .172 SLG against him over 64 at-bats. Ownage perhaps?

Davis hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last two starts and he has struck out 13 batters over those 23 innings. He faces a tough Tigers lineup but he’s rolling so far in the young season and he does have a 3.42 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven career outings against the Tigers.

Corbin has allowed a total of three runs in two outings on the road this season. He faces off against the Giants in San Francisco. In three starts this season the young lefty has allowed a total of three earned runs though his 1.86 K/BB ratio isn’t exactly fantastic though in 23 innings against the Giants that number is a remarkable 15.00 (15 Ks, 1 BB).

Villanueva has allowed three runs in three starts this season leading to a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP for the Cubs. He faces the Reds in Cincinnati, a club that he has performed passably against in his career (3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 40 Ks in 49.2 IP).

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 21: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Brett Anderson (+171K up to $392,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
The A’s lefty has returned from Tommy John Surgery with flying colors mind you. In his first outing against the Twins he tossed one run ball over seven innings as he walked none and struck out six. A strong pitcher through 63 career starts, Anderson owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for his career. Are those numbers he could match this year? It’s certainly possible, but remember it’s not always a linear path to success for guys returning from Tommy J. Think of Adam Wainwright. His April was dreadful, a 7.32 ERA and 1.47 WHGIP over four starts before he rebounded (for the season Waino has a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 26 starts). Anderson is well worth the add in 15 team mixed leagues, but those in 10/12 team leagues would be wise not to count on him too heavily until 2013.

Chris Iannetta (+35, $88K)
Three of the last four years in Colorado Iannetta hit at least 14 homers with 55 RBIs (the year he didn’t reach those marks he had only 188 at-bats in an injury shortened 2010). There was hope that Iannetta would get to 350 at-bats for the first time in his career this season, maybe even well into the 400′s in his new home in Anaheim, but injuries conspired against him. To this point he’s had only 134 at-bats and that has caused him to become an afterthought in two catcher mixed leagues. However, it might be time to start paying attention again. Over 20 games in August Chris has hit .286 with three homers, a .361 OBP an a .821 OPS, levels that he could maintain the rest of the way (well, maybe not the batting average, but it shouldn’t dip much below the league average).

Kyle Kendrick (+101, $356K)
The definition of average, there’s nothing that stands out with Kendrick. His K/BB ratio of 6.41 is a batter below the league average and his 3.13 BB/9 is league average. He allows 0.99 homers per nine. League average yet again. His 1.15 GB/FB is league average. Ditto his ratios – a 4.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I wasn’t kidding when I said nothing stands out. So why mention him? Because it’s all working for him right now. Over his last three outings he has allowed a total of two runs while picking up three victories for the Phillies. He’s also walked a total of three batters while striking out 16. I’m not suggesting you completely buy into what is happening right now, it’s just not who Kyle is, but if you need a boost on the hill few that might be available are likely to be on a better roll (he’s owned in less than 10 percent of Fleaflicker leagues).

Angel Pagan (+30, $119K)
Pagan is 0-for-8 the lat two games but he’s still be flat out killing it of late. Over the previous eight games he produced 18 hits to push his average up from .280 to .290. In fact, he’s hit .301 over his last 40 games and .347 in August (25 contests). He’s not a power bat, he has only seven homers and 48 RBIs, but he plays every day, scores runs (69) and certainly has the speed to swipe a bag (21 on the year).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Joe Blanton (-149, $206K)
He should be much better than he is, at least in terms of the overall results. On the year he has a 7.76 K/9 mark, the best of his career, and his 1.57 BB/9 mark would tied his career best. As a result he has an elite 4.93 K/BB ratio that is virtually double his career 2.55 mark. The main issue has been the home run, something that often plagues him. Currently his HR/9 is a career worst 1.52, the third time it looks like he will have a mark of 1.38 or greater in the past four years (career 1.08). If he suddenly goes on a run of homerless ball to bring that number back to normal levels he just might be someone to turn to. As it is he’s looked awful with the Dodgers going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over four starts.

A.J. Burnett (-92, $359K)
He has 15 wins an only four loses with a 3.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year. That’s as good as anyone could have hoped for after his last two years in New York that led to an ERA of 5.20 and a WHIP of nearly 1.50. However, things have taken a downturn for A.J. recently. Over his last three started he’s given up four homers, he’s walked eight batters, and he’s allowed 14 earned runs to add nearly a half run to his ERA. It’s tough to turn away from Burnett, his total of 151.1 innings shouldn’t be wearing him down, but like James McDonald before him maybe we’re just seeing a natural correction.

Matt Joyce (-20, $55K)
Since he was beset my injuries Joyce has been a shell of his former self. Over his last 32 games he has hit just .216 with a mere three homers. His OBP in that time is .295 which is only palatable when one glances over to his SLG and sees a number that should be his OBP (.345). At this point, even if you’re in a 15 team mixed with five starting outfielders it’s nearly impossible to think that you don’t have a better option for a fifth outfielder.

Jason Kubel (-21, $57K)
I warned you to be careful almost exactly a month ago in my July 23rd Column.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent)”
His line drive rate has dipped to 22.8 percent.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent)”
His HR/F ratio is down to 19.5 percent.

“He’s striking out more than ever before.”
After never having a K-rate above 21.4 percent that mark has skyrocketed to 26.4 percent.

“…we know all good things must come to an end, right?”
Kubel has hit .160 with a .549 OPS in August.

He’s only two homers from tying his career best of 28, and with 14 RBIs he’ll have the second best total of his career (best is 103, second best 92), and his .267 batting average is only four points below his career average of .271. The regression was always likely to occur.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 19, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Justin Morneau just hit the wire. Drop Dexter Fowler, Kendrys Morales or Billy Butler to get him?
– @JoshNarva

I’m cheering on Morneau as much as the next guy, but let’s slow our roll here a bit. I know that he’s playing defense which is great news, and that he has hit three homers in his last two games. All of that is well and good. However, someone needs to mention that the last time this guy had 300 at-bats was 2009. It should also be noted that over his last 80 games played Morneau has hit .235 with eight homers and 36 RBI. I’m all for hoping he will return to being the 20-100 man he was for 4-straight years from 2006-09, but he’ll need a lot more than two strong games to convince me he is back to that level.

The obvious move to be made would be to drop Morales. Both play first base and both are coming off injury. But think back three weeks. Is there anyone, and I mean any one of you, that drafted Morneau ahead of Morales? I bet there wasn’t one of you as Morneau was still struggling while Morales was simply bashing the ball in Spring Training. Ask yourself this question. Are you going to let 11 games, the total each has played this season, change the opinion that you held three weeks ago?

Should I drop Carlos Marmol for Santiago Casilla, Fernando Rodney or Jim Johnson?
– @harveynuts

More panic in the streets when it comes to closers, but I can’t really blame anyone (did you see the crazy news that Brad Lidge is dealing with vertigo? It’s like anything, and I literally mean anything, could sideline a 9th inning arm at this point. I fully expect one of the closers in the game to go missing in the Bermuda Triangle at some point in the near future).

Quickly, my thoughts on each.

Johnson has been stable, after some spring concerns, converting all five of his save chances. His K-rate is uninspiring (5.77 per nine for his career), ditto his K/BB (2.01), but he keeps the ball on the ground (57 percent). He could offer a 2011 Brandon League type effort if everything goes just right.

Rodney, how can I put this? He stinks. From 2007-11, that’s 270 games worth of pitching, had an ERA of  4.42, a WHIP of 1.50 and his K/BB was pathetic at 1.57. He wasn’t, and let me stress this, league average in any of those three categories the past five years. Good luck with him holding down the 9th inning job all year even if he’s been one of the better producers this season (see Fleaflicker).

Casilla has concerns as well, primarily his lack of pinpoint control. For more, see The On Deck Circle.

Keep Marmol. Not only does he have the longest track record of 9th inning success among this group, he’s also the most dominating option with one of the best K-rate’s in the history of baseball (min. 450 innings pitched his 11.73 K/9 mark is 4th all-time with the leader being Rob Dibble at 12.17). With Kerry Wood dealing with arms woes who would the Cubs turn to – Shawn Camp or James Russell? Please.

With RP being a crap shoot so far, does the value of Jose Valverde increase?
– @Phastball

It depends on how you view the value of Valverde. Is his job safe? Absolutely. Is he coming off a perfect season with 49 saves in 49 chances given him a massive amount of rope? Without question. At the same time, he didn’t pitch near as well last season as most people assume when they look at the save conversion rate. (1) Since 2006 his K/9 rate has gone down every season. 2011 was the first time in his career that he struck out less than a batter per inning. (2) Never a paint the corner artist, Valverde has walked an average of 4.39 batters per nine innings the past two years, more than a full batter worse than the league average. (3) His career GB/FB ratio of 0.96 is less than the big league average (about 1.10), another mark against him. I’m not predicting failure from him in 2012, he’ll get his saves, but realize he isn’t the pitcher that he was a few years ago even if he’s been so impressive at converting those save chances of late.

What do you think about Tommy Milone? What’s the comparable ceiling for this guy?
– @tallen1984

Scouts like Milone, but at the same time they’ve always been a bit reluctant to fully push him as an elite prospect since his pure “stuff” just isn’t that dominant. However, he had one of the more remarkable seasons of any minor league hurler last year when he went 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 148.1 innings at Triple-A. While those are good numbers, here is the remarkable part – he struck out more than a batter per inning, 155 in total, while walking 16 batters – sixteen. That’s 16 walks in 24 starts folks leading to a 9.69 K/BB ratio. Amazing.

Milone figures to have success, he certainly knows how to pitch, but he still throws 87-88 mph, and there is no way he’s going to be able to post numbers in the bigs like he did last season in the minors. The best case scenario for him this year is something akin to what Mark Buehrle accomplished last year (13-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 109 Ks).

Nolan Reimold or Matt Joyce for 4th OF?
– @gtrevino1975

I’ve been getting a ton of Reimold questions thanks to his impressive start (.341/.357/.707, four homers, eight RBI), but I’m not shocked at his success. In the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, I highlighted Reimold as a potential breakout performer you could grab on the cheap. Reimold has flashed the type of skills that lead one to believe that if he gets daily playing time, something he has received in the early going, that he could hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases (he is dealing with neck spasms and a hammy injury though, so there are a few health woes to worry about). He may never be more than a league average type in batting average, nothing in his K-rate, BB-rate, BABIP, GB/FB, LD-rate says he is anything but blah, but those counting numbers could be pretty darn solid if he gets 500 at-bats.

The real question here is do you go with the hot start and potential of Reimold and forgive the fact that he’s been lingering as a letdown for the past few years, or do you turn to Joyce who had a nice season last year when he posted a fantasy line of .277-19-75-69-13. In essence, Joyce was the type of player last season that many “think” Reimold can be. It’s not like Joyce has a long track record of success compared to Reimold, but I’m a fan of been there, done that. I had Joyce a few spots ahead of Reimold in my rankings three weeks ago before the season started, and Reimold is bit beat up right now physically, so I’m still leaning in the direction of Joyce right now.

Mat Latos was just dropped. I have Ted Lilly, Matt Harrison and Brandon Beachy. Do I drop anyone for him?
– @GetARealJob111

This is all I’m going to say about Ted Lilly. Since 2007 Lilly has the 5th best base runner per nine inning (10.40) mark of any pitcher in baseball who has thrown at least 750-innings, and he’s one of just 14 pitchers who has an K/9 mark of 7.50 in four of the last five seasons, minimum 150 IP a year (he just missed making it 5-for-5 last year with his 7.38 mark).

Beachy has a stupendous arm. In 168.2 career innings he has a K/9 rate of 10.30 and a K/BB rate of 3.33. Those are elite numbers. I’m not letting a young hurler with numbers like that go.

The guy you let go of to add Latos, and please add Latos and don’t panic with his poor performance to date (0-2, 8.22 ERA, 1.89 WHIP – it’s been three starts people), is Harrison. For more on why you should move on from Harrison see Quick Starting Pitchers.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.  

Player Profile: Matt Joyce

Remember back to June 1st 2011 when Matt Joyce was hitting .370 with nine homers, 30 RBI and 34 runs scored through 51 games? Come on, you remember. You sent me notes about him, called me on my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show, and basically all said he was going to be the breakout star of the 2011 season. You remember what I said all along? Come on, you do. I said that what Joyce was doing was unsustainable, I said it and wrote it over an over again. I don’t think many listened, but you should have. Joyce hit one homer in June and batted .179 over the months of June and July. In the end, Joyce had a nice season hitting .277 with 19 homers and 75 RBI, but I bet you that every single Joyce owner last year was frustrated to all hell with him, an I also bet that many of those of you who owned Joyce would say he was a disappointment because he started out so darn hot last year. To that last group, those of you who were upset with his performance, why didn’t you listen to me? I don’t randomly spout off when I talk about players, I nearly always have valid reasons for the positions I hold. I’m not always right, I’ll freely admit that, but more often than not I end up being right because I let the numbers, and my baseball knowledge, inform my positions. What am I talking about? Joyce is a perfect example of what I mean.

Over the first 490 at-bats of Joyce’s career he hit 25 homers, knocked in 80 runs and batted .243 with a .344 OBP. How did he end up in 2011? He hit 19 homers, drove in 75 runs, batted .277 and had a .347 OBP in 462 at-bats. Those two set of numbers are pretty much in alignment with each other, right? So how could you be disappointed by what Joyce did in 2011? Perception is the answer.

Every year someone breaks out and is killing it, hitting like .350 deep into May or June, and nearly every time that happens a regression takes place with that player over the remainder of the season. That’s what happened with Joyce. If you owned him in the first half he was all-world. If you owned him in the second half he sucked ass. In the end, his numbers were pretty darn solid, he just didn’t get there in an even, linear manner. Again though, the perception is that he stunk, even though his yearly totals should have been what you expected all along.

What should you expect from Joyce in 2011? I’m gonna predict more of the same from last year, and that’s not a bad thing at all (especially since Joyce’s value might be lower than it should be on draft day because of the sour taste his second half fade left in many owner’s mouths). Joyce owns a passable 0.53 BB/K mark for his career, and the same can be said about his 19.3 percent line drive rate and his .295 career BABIP mark. Toss in his 13.3 HR/F rate, and you have the type of profile that could put up .275-25 seasons for a decade. Toss in some steals, Joyce surprised last season with 13 thefts, and you have an ideal option for a 5th outfielder in mixed leagues.

The bottom line is this. Don’t fall into the trap of expectations with any player. Be honest about what you see, what the numbers say, and what scouts tell you. Also, be patient when a player starts slowly, and don’t be afraid to move a player who is clearly performing over his head early in the year. As Joyce showed with his hot/cold streaks last year, in the end the production was about where you should have expected it to be in March, it was just a gut wrenching ride to get there.

By Ray Flowers

A Day of Struggles

You’re probably asking yourself why I have a picture of some oddly dressed man tilling the soil accompanying the piece today? The reason is that I’m haunted by gardeners. It seems like there is someone outside my office blowing leaves on a daily basis with one of those gas powered jobs. I swear it’s flipping annoying. Why can’t they all just get together and make Tuesday gardening day? Maybe I’ll get on that in my free time.

There have been three no-hitters thrown this year, and each pitcher that tossed one had a losing record at the time of their no-no: Justin Verlander was 2-3, Francisco Liriano was 1-4 while Ervin Santana was 5-8 meaning we got three no-hitters from guys who were a combined 8-15. What is it that I always say about win-loss records…

A couple of pitchers who just aren’t getting it done of late – here’s a lefty and a righty.

Barry Zito: 10.25 ERA over his last three starts.
Joel Pineiro: 14.85 ERA over his last four starts.

Zito is now on the DL with a foot issue, and Pineiro could have pitched his way out of the Angel’s starting rotation with his recent work (optoins include Garrett Richards, Hisanori Takahashi and Trevor Bell).

David Wright is back. Since he returned from the DL, he was on the outs because of a back issue, he has hit .392 with 13 RBI. At the other end of the spectrum, you know the end that you don’t want to have right in your face, Adam Lind has hit .093 the past two weeks. How is that possible? In case you haven’t noticed, Lind’s average is down to .273 as he has hit .196 over his last 27 games. Since we’re talking about struggling hitters, I felt I had to mention Matt Joyce. The Rays’ slugger, and I use that term loosely, has hit .241 in 17 games since the All-Star break which is actually a massive improvement over the .173 he hit in June and .184 he hit in July. The duo has rather similar totals to this point of the year.

Joyce: .282-15-50-54 with a .845 OPS
Lind: .273-19-59-43 with a .800 OPS

WHO AM I?

I have a better ERA than James Shields, Scott Baker, Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee.

I have a better WHIP than all but four pitchers in baseball.

I have more strikeouts than Bud Norris, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Jon Lester, Matt Cain and Josh Beckett.

Who am I?

Alex Rodriguez is an idiot. He did performance enhancing drugs, he dated Cameron Diaz and caused a nauseating scene at the Super Bowl which I detailed in A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest. Now there are allegations of underground gambling. I’m telling you, I just don’t get it. Why do athletes systematically engage in self destructive behavior? Perhaps it’s the sense of entitlement they feel because people have been kissing their asses since they were old enough to wipe them on their own. Just makes me sick.

The answer to the question – Who Am I? -  is the Angels’ Dan Haren. The Angel’s ace has an 11-6 record, 2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 131 Ks. Haren is currently the 21st most valuable player in baseball – at least according to Yahoo Sports.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 12, 2011

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

You ask, I answer. Here are some of my thoughts on the questions that I receive all week at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Do you see Drew Stubbs coming back in the second half? He’s been terrible lately.
– @acase22

Perception isn’t always reality.

All of us, at one time or another, get sucked into the sample size morass, yet very few of us emerge from it with our senses intact. Example. Emilio Bonifacio may be the most valuable player in the fantasy game in the month of July as he’s hitting .441 with eight steals and 10 runs scored in nine games. So you pick up Bonifacio, ride him until he returns to being the below average hitter he has always been (.259/.319/.333 for his career) and move on. The problem is, most of the time in just such a scenario you don’t realize that the minor player is hot until they’ve been that way for two weeks, so by the time you actually make the move to pick them up they’re already tailing off. It’s why, more times than not, going with the more skilled player results in a better outcome than trying to play the hot hand over and over again. Two weeks or even a month just isn’t that long when the season goes on for six months.

As for Stubbs, he is a highly skilled, albeit flawed, player. There’s no disputing that he has struggled of late as he’s hitting .206  over his last 10 games, has gone 14 contests without a homer, and the last time he stole a base was June 27th, 13 games ago. But back to our old friend sample size. Let’s look past his work the past three weeks and compare his season long pace this year to the numbers he produced last year.

2010: .255-22-77-91-30
2011: .250-19-56-103-40

It might be hard to believe because he’s struggled so much of late, but Stubbs is actually on pace to have a slightly better fantasy season this year than last because of the addition of the steals and runs which help to negate the loss in homers and RBI.

If you drafted Stubbs expecting him to hit .280, you were fooling yourself. If you drafted him thinking he would be as consistent as the sun rising and falling, you were fooling yourself. Stubbs is an all or nothing type hitter who strikes out too much, and therefore has long stretches of ineffectiveness, but as long as he keeps up his year long pace his numbers will be just fine at years end.

Just saw that Ryan Raburn hit .315 with 13 homers last year in the 2nd half, better than Robinson Cano’s .299 and 13 effort.
– @CUTESalad

I know this isn’t a question, but I’ll use it as a springboard to mention something that you should all be made aware of – first and second half splits usually mean little. But you’re going to say ‘Player A hits .050 points higher in the second half, how could you not care about that?’ My response is – it’s totally random. Why not choose May 3rd through June 29th as the sample size to review? Because it’s ugly to look at. Using the All-Star game as a dividing line makes all the sense in the world because it’s a natural break point. However, that’s all it is – a natural break point. Let me give you an example.

Let’s say Player A is a .250 hitter in the first half, but a .300 hitter in the second half. If you saw an article pointing that out, your natural inclination would be to add that player right now. But should you? Let’s say that Player A had exactly 250 at-bats each of the six years he has been in the league in the second half. Again, let’s postulate that he is a .300 hitter in the second half. What if I told you the following hitting line would give you a total of .300 for a second half average despite looking pretty scary?

.250, .350, .375, .225, .335, .265

Those totals would net you an average of .300, but as you can tell, two of the years Player A was well below average, and one season he was league average at best. If you get the player who hits .375 you win your league. If you get the guy who hits .225, well, fantasy football will start soon (we all hope). Also, don’t forget about sample size. Make sure there is enough data at your disposal to truly ferret out what is going on as two seasons of splits isn’t likely to give you a crystal clear outlook on the situation.

Be very careful not to buy into a number without checking out the data behind that number. As much as I love numbers, even I know that they can be deceiving at times.

Mike Napoli’s back. Will he get more playing time?
– @zumbahlenm

Napoli’s usage over the years is one of the more vexing situations in the game. Year after year the guy flat out mashes, yet his manager never seems to have confidence in him. He’s not the greatest defensive catcher in the game, though his Catchers Earned Run Average (CERA) says otherwise (he’s tops amongst all catchers in baseball who have appeared in 25 games behind the plate), but his bat is elite in terms of power. Napoli has hit a mere .232 this season, but his OPS is .873, fourth at the position amongst fellas with 180 plate appearances. He’s also powered 12 homers with 33 RBI for the Rangers in just 155 at-bats. That’s a pace that would net him 36 homers and 99 RBI over 465 at-bats. Why isn’t someone willing to use him at catcher, first and DH to give him 500 at-bats? I guess no team in baseball could use 30 homers.

Honestly, with the way that the Rangers have used him all year, I don’t have much faith that their suddenly going to start running him out there every day. The best way for that to happen would likely be if he was dealt to a team that understands the talents he possesses.

I have Logan Morrison. Matt Joyce is available. Swap them?
– @hedmojave

Remember at the top when I said perception isn’t always reality. The perception is that Joyce started out hot and is now a dud, while LoMo is a better all-around hitter. However, is that true?

One thing is completely clear, Joyce was phenomenal, and then poor – there is no dispute there. Joyce hit .370 with nine homers over his first 51 games, and since then he’s hit .163 with three homers. Yikes is right. LoMo has also struggled recently. After hitting .320 over his first 32 games he’s hit .221 over his last 37 games. Still, I bet it would surprise many of you out there to learn that Joyce still bests LoMo in runs, batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS.

Joyce: .290-12-41-45-5 with a .351 OBP, .513 SLG, .864 OPS
LoMo: .267-12-42-29-1 with a .343 OBP, .489 SLG, .832 OPS

Surprising isn’t it?

So who would I take rest of the way? You got a coin to flip? I’d go with Morrison, but I admit that it’s quite possible that the numbers of the two outfielders this season will end up being pretty similar.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Mailbag: June 28, 2011

photo © 2008 William Holtkamp | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Carlos Pena or Michael Bourn ROTW?
– @F_Naud

There is a fundamental misunderstanding in how to evaluate players in many instances as people have a hard time placing a value on a player who does nothing but steal bases (i.e. Bourn). Here’s some knowledge that should help.

(1) From 2008 to 2010 there were 14,533 home runs and 8,728 steals (for every homer hit there were 0.6 stolen bags the past three years). Obviously steals are the scarcer commodity and therefore, the more valuable in a straight up comparison.

(2) Not only are steals more difficult to come by, they are more tightly grouped in a smaller number of players. From 2008-2010 there were 256 individual seasons of 20 homers. In that same time frame there were 118 individual seasons of 20 steals. That’s better than a 2-to-1 margin in favor of the 20 homer hitter.

Given these facts, steals are more valuable than homers in the fantasy game in terms of their inherent value in a vacuum because of their scarcity. Of course there are five offensive categories, so you can’t just compare A to B and get the picture in 1080p in HD, but you get the point.

Bourn is an elite base stealer. He’s swiped at least 52 bases while scoring at least 84 runs the past two years, totals that make him a boon to fantasy clubs even if he averaged a mere three homers and 37 RBI over the two years. Let’s take a look at how Bourn ranked, in terms of his fantasy value, at two of the biggest providers in fantasy baseball the past two years.

Bourn 2009: # 26 overall at CBS, #76 overall at Yahoo
Bourn 2010: #68 overall at CBS, #126 overall at Yahoo

Let’s compare that to Pena, a slugging, sloth like, average killer.

Pena 2009: # 147 overall at CBS, #99 overall at Yahoo
Pena 2010: #370 overall at CBS, # 287overall at Yahoo

Both sites use player raters that evaluate players a bit differently, but it should be clear that they are both saying that an elite speed option like Bourn is immanently more valuable than a slugging first baseman like Pena who kills your batting average.

You can find homers all over the place at first base, so a guy like Pena has no business being in a discussion for a 1-for-1 deal for an elite base stealer like Bourn.

I traded Hanley Ramirez for Michael Morse & Martin Prado. Have J.J. Hardy to replace. Good trade? 12 team h2h.
– @brianrkiel

Hanley is on fire, finally, with eight hits in five games. Oddly, some seem to have forgotten that he is an elite talent because of injury and poor production this year. He has no shot at matching the numbers that were expected from him, the numbers that made him a top-5 selection in all drafts this year, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be an elite level performer in the second half of the season.

Morse has been an absolute beast this year hitting .303 with 15 homers and 46 RBI in just 231 at-bats. Since he qualifies at first and outfield he is even more valuable that if he was just rooted at one position. He’s also had success wherever he has played his games with a .303/.345/.545 line at home and .303/.361/.576 slash line on the road. Prado is an established .300 hitter who qualifies at multiple positions on the diamond. His staph infection also appears to be under control, and he’s just about ready to start ramping up his physical work. He should be back before the All-Star break.

As for your replacement at shortstop, Hardy has been great this year – when on the field. He’s clearly brittle, injuries are part of his game, so you should be wary of depending too heavily on him. A solid power bat, there’s little change he will be able to remain at his current pace that would net 30 homers in a full season, and since he’s never hit higher than .283 and owns a career .265 average you also should be concerned about his ability to hit .304 all year long.

If Prado was healthy and hitting .300, I don’t think anyone would accept just Hanley for that duo with Ramirez underperforming so badly. At this point of the year you have to be pragmatic though. I’d accept the deal under the proviso that it’s a risk since the health of Prado is uncertain at the moment.

I give up Matt Joyce and Neil Walker for Brandon Phillips. Thoughts?
– @Lukdabeast

Joyce has predictably fallen on hard times hitting .176 with one homer in June, but let’s not overlook the fact that he’s on pace to hit .300 with 20 homers and 80 RBI (he’s at .313-10-38 through 71 games). Everyone would have taken that at the draft table. Walker has been a disappointment to some as he’s hitting .252 with a .711 OPS a year after hitting .296 with a .811 OPS, but it’s hard to be too down a second sacker who is on pace to go deep 15 times with 100 RBI and 80 runs scored isn’t it?

Phillips has gone bonkers of late hitting .500 over his last 32 at-bats to bring his season long mark up  to .299. Yes his power is down with only six homers on the year, but he is still on pace to better 85 RBI and 100 runs scored. It is odd though that a guy who has stolen 23 or more bags in four of five years isn’t even on pace for double-digit thefts.

There is no disputing that Phillips is the elite level performer of these three. It’s tough to give up all the counting stats that you lose if you deal Joyce and Walker, but I’d give the thumbs up for this deal provided you had an option you could easily slide into the vacant outfield spot.

Who closes for the Phillies with Ryan Madson on DL?
– @WestheUmpire

First it was Brad Lidge, then Jose Contreras, then Ryan Madson as the arm the Phillies were going to count on in the 9th inning.

Lidge is on the DL with an elbow issue, and after a cortisone shot last week he’s finally back at it and rearing to go. The club hopes he will be able to return before the All-Star break. Contreras just went on the DL, again, this time for a strained forearm that will likely keep him out for about 4-6 weeks. Madson was placed on the DL today with a bruised hand that is causing him some numbness. At this point, it’s not clear when he will be back, so a return in 15 days isn’t guaranteed.

So who do the Phillies turn to? I think it has to be Antonio Bastardo, the lefty who has all of two saves in his career. Bastardo has been nails this year with a 0.96 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over 28 innings as he has used his fastball-slider combo to great effect. With a 10.61 K/9 mark he certainly has the ability to generate outs, but there are a couple of major concerns. (1) His BB/9 mark is 4.18, and that is far from ideal. (2) He allows 57 percent of batted balls to go in the air. Given that number it’s a shock that his HR/9 mark is only 0.64. It could easily rise, substantially. (3) As good as his stuff is, there’s no way Bastardo is going to be able to hold batters to a .120 average all year, especially when you notice that his BABIP is .153.

Given the total uncertainty with the Phillies’ bullpen it makes all the sense in the world to add Bastardo in any situation if you need help in the saves category, even if there is no certainty whatsoever about how long he will be asked to close, or how he will handle the pressure of the 9th inning.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

By Ray Flowers

Is Perception Reality?

photo © 2006 Mark A. Vargas | more info (via: Wylio)

You pull on your trunks, slap on your flip flops and head to the beach. It’s sunny outside so the weather must be wonderful. Why wouldn’t you play hooky? However, you get to the beach, grab your Frisbee and set out for your spot on the sand right next to that hottie wearing the black bikini only to realize that though it’s sunny out there that it’s actually about 63 degrees. Come to think of it, there is also about a 18 mph wind blowing. All of a sudden your day of lotion, sun and relaxation just doesn’t look as promising as it did 35 minutes ago when you left your crib.

The point is this – perception isn’t always reality.

In what follows I’ll point out some situations that I’m sure will blow your mind when you realize what you “thought” was going on may not exactly be what is really going on.

Matt Joyce has floundered so much this season that he is on pace for 11 homers and 57 RBI. Whoopee do. However, did you notice that he is hitting .346 on the year or that he is hitting .419 with a 1.210 OPS over the last two weeks?

Ian Kennedy started the year slowly and that makes you think his effort in 2010 was a bit fluky, right? If you thought that you would have missed out on the fact that over his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP.

Jed Lowrie is hitting a robust .350 on the year and has been a terrific find thus far (we would all agree). Still, were you aware that over the past two weeks that Lowrie was hitting all of .267 with a .277 OBP in 45 at-bats? Or how about this. Lowrie has no homers and one RBI in his last 10 games. So much for him being the savior, right?

Brad Penny stinks and there is just no need to pay any attention to him. After all, he has seven walks and allowed 12 earned runs over his first two starts of the year. Well, of late he has looked like an All-Star with a 1.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 3.20 K/BB ratio over his last three starts

Juan Rivera is hitting only .212 on the year and has been a massive disappointment for the Jays, right? Not so fast. Rivera is actually hitting pretty well right now with a .317 mark over the past two weeks during which time his OPS has been a strong .905.

Troy Tulowitzki bashed seven homers with 14 RBI in his first 12 games and was looking like the NL MVP. Since then he has gone deep, uh, not a single time in 15 games. He only has three RBI in those 15 contests as well. He’s also hit .225 with a .569 OPS over his last 40 at-bats.

I think you get the point.

We are talking about a handful of at-bats or starts with players, and that just isn’t enough data to paint an accurate portrait in most cases. As humans who have busy lives we’ve learned to draw conclusions based upon the data presented to us. If that snap shot was ‘Troy Tulowitzki is mashing the ball as well as any shortstop in the history of baseball” it’s most likely how you stereotyped him for the 2011 season. Maybe that will end up being the case and you’ll be right, but even with that hot start of his the truth is that over the last two weeks there are 20 shortstops who have have produced more fantasy value. Don’t mistake me here, I’m not saying that I have any doubt in Tulo’s greatness, my point is that it’s a long season and before you go formulating an opinion on players make sure that you have enough data at your disposal to make that call.

Now where is my SPF 30?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 25, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano goes bonkers in dugout is suspended.

(2) Jair Jurrjens likely to return to the rotation next Wednesday.

(3) Carlos Beltran back by Monday?

(4) Carl Crawford’s shoulder still bothering him.

(5) Aramis Ramirez back from thumb injury.

(6) Jake Peavy coming on strong.

(7) A big announcement coming on Monday.

By Ray Flowers